Yet Wolverine still feels like an afterthought, a distant cousin to the original franchise, a sidebar that adds little to the main narrative. That’s probably because the picture is a gloomy exercise:  There’s no one to cheer for except Wolverine, and he’s working so hard at being Eyore with Elvis sideburns that it’s hard to root for him anyway. Then again, who can blame him? The character lives in a world populated almost entirely of bad guys. Besides your standard-issue unrepentants, you’ve got good guys who turn out to be bad guys, family members who turn out to be bad guys, trusted leaders who turn out to be bad guys, and lovers, friends, and comrades in arms who turn out to be bad guys, too. There are a few good guys who don’t turn out to be bad guys (I counted two), but they don’t survive long enough to earn a spot beyond the last third of the closing credits.

The biggest problem for me is that the various superpowers on display often fail to follow a consistent physics, let alone common sense or human nature. Wolverine’s talons (Swords? Sharp extra fingers?) rip through flesh and bone, but break when they’re stepped on. The triumph of one character’s super-strength over that of another depends less on clever moves than the requirements of the plot. The ability to disappear and re-appear–useful, that–is deployed to make a fight more interesting, not by a combatant to save his life. A sock in the jaw knocks a mutant to the ground or through a wall, but a helicopter crash barely registers. I guess Bruce Willis and every other action hero gets away with plenty of inconsistencies, too, but those characters are supposed to be human. I’m familiar with humans. Mutants, though, I don’t know what to expect. I’d like to consistently see their strengths and limits so I can know what they’re capable of, and what might defeat them. (You know, in case I run into one.)

Oh–and if you’re looking for a tour of action-picture cliches, you’ve come to the right place. I counted three times that a major character yelled at the sky in anger as the camera pulls away from directly above (otherwise known as the Super Villain Shout–think “Noooo!” or–better–”Kaaaaahn!”). Then there’s the obligatory unaffected-by-the-pyro shot in which the hero walks, expressionless, into the camera and away from a devastating explosion (unless you count a complete lack of expression as an expression).

Is any of this worth your time or money? If you like the X-Men series, then it’s indispensable. If you are perfectly happy with a well-executed genre picture of this type, it’s certainly that. And if for some reason you like an elbow-to-elbow crowd of bad guys, you’ll find so many here you’d swear they shot it at a meeting of the Fidel & Raoul Castro fan club. X-Men Origins: Wolverine is nothing special. But if it’s hot outside and you’re looking for air conditioning and things that go boom, well, this is that.

Star-turned-producer Hugh Jackman has scored his second-biggest opening ever and, easily, his biggest as a solo star. Wolverine has mauled the competition with a massive $34.75M opening day (including $5M or so in Thursday midnight sales). That could translate to a 3-day of $86.8M, getting Hollywood’s most lucrative season off to a spectacular start.

The stars of WOLVERINE (from the left): Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool, Taylor Kitsch as Gambit, Hugh Jackman as Wolverine, Liev Schrieber as Sabretooth and Lynn Collins as Kayla Silverfox

The X-Men spin-off, which has been made for substantially less than the $210M budget ponied up for to produce 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand, becomes the all-time fourth-best first-weekend-of-May opening, trailing only Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M), the original 2002 Spider-Man ($114.8M) and last May’s Iron Man ($98.6M). Wolverine has also posted one of the top seven opening days ever for a comic book adaptation.

ALL-TIME BEST OPENINGS DAYS FOR COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS
1. The Dark Knight – $67.1M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $59.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand – $45.1M
4. Spider-Man 2 – $40.4M
5. Spider-Man – $39.4M
6. Iron Man – $35.2M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $34.75M (estimated)
8. X2: X-Men United – $31.2M
9. 300 – $28.1M
10. Watchmen – $24.5M

And, as comic book movies go, Jackman’s solo effort has cut and sliced through the pack to become the all-time seventh-best 3-day start.

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE will not match the opening weekend of last year's summer starter IRON MAN

ALL-TIME BEST OPENING WEEKENDS FOR A COMIC BOOK ADAPTATION
1. The Dark Knight – $158.4M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $151.1M
3. Spider-Man – $114.8M
4. X-Men: The Last Stand – $102.7M
5. Iron Man – $98.6M
6. Spider-Man 2 – $88.1M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $86.8M (projected)
8. X2: X-Men United – $85.5M
9. 300 – $70.8M
10. Hulk – $62.1M

How does Jackman hold his silverware during dinner?

Jackman himself is getting lots of positive feedback on his personal Twitter page, but there is some real negative feedback in the Twitterverse. Here are some actually Tweets from movie fans that have been posted in the last couple of hours.

if its wolverine dont waste your time

Wolverine sucks!

Wolverine: not too bad. Better than the horrible second X-Men movie. Coolest thing was preview for District-9.

I went and paid for 2 movie tix to see that damn Wolverine movie. I just wasted my money.

Wolverine was ok – too much smooshed into one movie and too many things attempted to be neatly wrapped up and squared away.

Saw Wolverine. It was weak.

What does Hugh Jackman being a hottie have 2 do w/ how crappy the movie is?

Oh my God Wolverine was just as bad as everyone was saying.

out to see Wolverine! Ill let you guys know how bad it is.

“don’t waste your money” unless you’re a huge fan. Like 2nd X-files bad.

So, it appears that fans are as tepid about this movie as film critics. X-Men Origins: Wolverine will likely be very front-loaded both for the weekend and the long haul. I’m guessing that the weekend could play out like this. Wolverine did $5M Thursday at midnight and has added another $29.75M Friday (for a $34.75M opening day). Then Saturday, the movie may drop 9% to $31.6M or so, followed by a Sunday dip of 36% to just over $20M.

Jackman is not just another action star; Here he is in his Tony-winning performance in Broadway's BOY FROM OZ

After speaking with a number of competing studios, the consensus is that Wolverine will have a multiple of less than two. (The multiple is the number by which you multiply the opening weekend to arrive at the ultimate domestic gross.) With a multiple in the 1.8-1.9 range, the summer’s first movie spectacle will finish at $156-$165M. That’s a good, but not great number. Meanwhile, Star Trek (Paramount) has a chance to be this year’s Iron Man, an early May release that plays deep into the summer at a high multiple in the 3.2-3.3 range.

Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner are creating some sparks in GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST

The other wide release in the marketplace this weekend is the poorly-reviewed Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros). With Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner as the romantic leads and an assist from Oscar winner Michael Douglas, Ghosts has performed decently, especially with Females 25 Plus. The Mark Waters-directed rom-com coaxed an estimated $6M in opening day sales and will likely reach about $16.5M for the weekend. That’s would be 12% stronger than last year’s first-weekend-of-May chick-flick counter programming, Made of Honor, which finished second to Iron Man with $14.7M.

Ali Larter (center) and Beyonce (right) come to blows over THE WIRE's Idris Elba in OBSESSED

Last weekend’s box office champ Obsessed (Sony) – the one where Beyonce “tromps a tramp” (played by Ali Larter from Heroes) – took a nosedive with just $4.2M or so on Friday. It seems headed for an estimated 3-day of $12.39M, down 57% from its opening, but the genre pic with a budget of only $20M will still have $47M in the bank by Monday. That’s a very profitable little movie.

Tween are pushing Zac Efron's 17 AGAIN past the $50M mark

The Warner Bros comedy 17 Again, starring tween dream Zac Efron, continues to perform well with about $2.22M to start the weekend and a possible $6.62M for the frame. Zac’s high-concept comedy will have topped $48.7M domestic in its first 17 days of release.

The new nature doc EARTH is really just the Cliff Notes for the extraordinary BBC miniseries PLANET EARTH

Disney’s Earth, a 90-minute version of the BBC’s 11-hour 2006 miniseries Planet Earth, will round out the top five for the first official weekend of summer. The nature doc grabbed $1.45M on its second Friday and is targeting $5.81M and a new 12-day cume of $23.47M by Monday.

The other wide release is the 3-D pic Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions). It is on just over 1,100 screens, but has managed only about $300,000 on opening day. I did see a commercial for Terra during American Idol this week, so there was some money spent, but it couldn’t have been much. Despite respectable reviews, this cg animated flick is destined for no more than $1M. That’s a full-on disaster.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $34.75M, $8,478 PTA, $34.75M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $6M, $1,890 PTA, $6M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $4.2M, $1,671 PTA, $39M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $2.22M, $682 PTA, $44.36M cume
5. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.7M, $836 PTA, $14.2M cume
6. Earth (Disney) – $1.45M, $804 PTA, $19.11M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.41M, $537 PTA, $178M cume
8. Fighting (Rogue) – $1.4M, $608 PTA, $14.73M cume
9. State of Play (Universal) – $1.28M, $527 PTA, $28.51M cume
10. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $1.1M, $390 PTA, $67.88M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – $300,000, $258 PTA, $300,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $86.8M, $21,194 PTA, $86.8M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $16.5M, $5,197 PTA, $16.5M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $12.39M, $4,928 PTA, $47.19M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $6.62M, $2,034 PTA, $48.76M cume
5. Earth (Disney) – $5.81M, $3,221 PTA, $23.47M cume
6. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.7M, $2,804 PTA, $18.2M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.65M, $2,152 PTA, $182.25M cume
8. State of Play (Universal) – $4.31M, $1,765 PTA, $31.54M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $3.96M, $1,405 PTA, $70.74M cume
10. Fighting (Rogue) – $3.76M, $1,630 PTA, $17.1M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – $1M, $878 PTA, $1M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Have at it.

Discuss, debate, write your own review…

Unlike “The Dark Knight,” which used allegory and theme to richen its story and characters, the first two X-Men movies (haven’t seen 3) were unduly burdened by political subtext. At no time did either achieve the most important moment in a superhero film – at no time did they soar. It’s not hard to figure out why. How do you accomplish lift-off weighed down by a blinding nuance which won’t allow an all-out rumble between good and evil? “Wolverine” never soars either, but it’s not a superhero film, it’s a genre flick; a satisfying, old-fashioned revenger, a B-movie whose characters just happen to possess extraordinary powers.

The story opens just before the Civil War, introducing us to Logan (Hugh Jackman) and Victor (a well-cast Liev Schreiber) as young brothers forced to come to terms with who and what they are. A nifty credit sequence, not unlike “Watchmen’s,” quickly takes us through their lives and the development of their relationship until we land somewhere around 1970 where both are mixed up in a secret and elite U.S. Military hit squad made up of other mutants and commanded by the oily General Stryker (Danny Houston).

A particularly ugly mission involving the killing of innocent civilians ends up being too much for Logan and he decides he’s had enough. But Victor (now Sabretooth) has shred much of his humanity over the decades, enjoys him some killing and feels he’s finally found a place for his mutant self among his own kind. For reasons that never fully make sense, this tension results in the brothers becoming mortal enemies.

In Canada, Logan builds himself a new life working as a lumberjack. He lives in a beautiful mountain home no lumberjack not living in a movie could ever afford and has found true love with Kayla Silverfox (the quite fetching Lynn Collins), his tender, understanding, live-in girlfriend.

What could possibly go wrong?

Yeah, I could’ve done without the old trope of the “sinister” military and really could’ve done without the arch-villain’s wildly out-of-place Dr. Evil speech about the necessity of “pre-emptive war” (I thought Obama told everyone to look forward?), but remove the superpowers and special effects and “Wolverine” is the same movie Charles Bronson made a dozen times between 1972 and 1987. And that’s a compliment.  

The story’s lean, simple and thankfully, unlike its predecessors, more concerned with pacing than moralizing. The special effects are a little cheesy, but that only heightens the winning lack of ambition which is the film’s strongest element. Best of all, the action scenes don’t have you reaching for the Dramamine nor do they numb you with blazing overkill. The unholy shaky-cam is nowhere to be seen and the three or four set-pieces are choreographed and shot in a way that allows you to follow them.

If you worry as I do about origin stories that get bogged down in those layers of mythology that so please Those-Who-Have-Never-Felt-The-Touch-Of-A-Woman, no worries here, which is why the fanboy crowd might be disappointed.  The introduction of new mutants and a younger version of an old favorite might help, but the story surrounding what made Wolverine Wolverine is refreshingly straight-forward and simple.

Emotionally the relationships never really connect, especially the central one between Wolverine and Sabretooth. The demands of the plot drive these characters when it should be the other way around. The need for an action scene or a “surprising” turn of events seems to change their relationship dynamic on a dime which makes it impossible to grasp or to invest in it. Logan’s relationship with Kayla is only a little better, but his connection with an elderly farm couple is the strongest element in the film but also the shortest.

This is Jackman’s fourth tour as Logan, the mutant who will be Wolverine, and he’s as good as I’ve seen him. The most important aspect of a movie star is clear-eyed confidence and an ease in your own skin.  Jackman’s performance is effortless in that respect and shows no sign of the self-consciousness I’ve seen in his other work. Hopefully this will translate beyond the “X-Men” franchise.

“Wolverine” satisfies and works because it respects what it is and never pretends otherwise. Good actors and plenty of action expertly paced over 107 minutes with no aspirations beyond holding our attention.

So far, this is my kind of summer.

Look at these numbers.

X-Men – estimated budget – $75M
$20.8M opening day – $54.5M opening weekend – $152.3M domestic – $296.3M global

X-2: X-Men United – estimated budget – $110M
$31.25M opening day – $85.5M opening weekend – $214.9M domestic – $407.7M global

X-Men: The Last Stand – estimated budget – $210M
$45.1M opening day – $102.7M opening weekend – $224.4M domestic – $459.3M global

It’s pretty clear that, with no cost-containment on budget (especially the big cast), the X-Men franchise had reached the point of diminishing returns. So, X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox), debuting Friday, is a sequel, but, technically, a spin-off, without costing as much as a true sequel would.

A very different Hugh Jackman won the Tony for Best Actor for his performance in Broadway's BOY FROM OZ

I’m guessing that Hugh Jackman is working for a great price, also serving as a producer with a healthy backend participation. The rest of the name cast is essentially limited to Liev Schrieber (The Manchurian Candidate, The Omen), Dominic Monaghan (The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, ABC’s Lost) and Ryan Reynolds (Blade: Trinity, The Amityville Horror), and there is no Bryan Singer (X-Men, X-2) or Brett Ratner (X-Men 3) to direct. Instead, Fox and Jackman settled on the much less expensive, but still Academy Award-winning director Gavin Hood (Tsotsi). Now with a scaled-back story and cast, the movie comes in at a much more studio-friendly price while, hopefully, still packing an X-Men-style box office punch.

Aussie director Gavin Hood accepting his Oscar for TSOTSI

Fox has smartly positioned Wolverine as the first movie into the summer fray, and that is important because this is the one May huge release that may not have long legs (I believe that J.J. Abrams’ Star Trek will squash it like a bug on the all-new Enterprise windshield next week). I am told that pre-release industry tracking is in the stratosphere for this X-Men spin-off – Un-Aided Awareness, Total Awareness, Definite Interest and First Choice are all through the roof. When the tracking data gets this heated, predictions are dicey at best, but I am calling for $92M domestic. That would be just a tick lower than last year’s first-weekend-of-May starter Iron Man, which was $98.6M.

Without claws: Hugh Jackman as host of the 2009 Academy Awards

For those of you who may be reading my column for the first time, that $92M figure is my “prediction.” That means that based on my experience, conversations with sources at competing studios and interpretation of pre-release industry tracking, I am making a well-educated guess as to how X-Men Origins: Wolverine will deliver in opening weekend US sales. (The road is littered with other well-educated guessers, and I have missed substantially on a few predictions in the past.)

When I start writing on Friday, it will be based on early ticket sales. That will make my numbers “projections” instead of “predictions.” My Early Friday and 3-Day “projections” are historically off by no more than 5%-8%.

For the record, I believe that Mr. Jackman and the folks at Fox will be quite happy with anything north of $80M, but they are definitely working to keep expectations lower. In the end, I think they’ll be in the $90M-$95M range for 3-days.

Over the long haul, WOLVERINE will be no match for last year's IRON MAN

Ultimately, Iron Man performed like a monster deep into the summer. It was followed by the box office misfire Speed Racer on the following Friday, giving the Jon Favreau-directed comic book adaptation basically 17 days alone in the marketplace. Wolverine doesn’t have that luxury with the aforementioned Star Trek, arriving next Thursday starting at 7pm.

Additionally, Iron Man was jet-powered by spectacular reviews (93% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes)
and excellent word-of-mouth. It’ll be more of a mixed bag for X-Men Origins: Wolverine, standing at 41% Fresh on RT as of Wednesday night. The multiplier for Iron Man was 3.22 (the number by which you multiply the opening weekend figure by to arrive at the ultimate domestic gross). Wolverine is more likely to finish with a multiplier of 1.8-1.9. If the picture hits my opening weekend number, that multiplier will put the final US total at something in the $165M-$175M range.

In addition to my final weekend prediction, I also believe that Wolverine may scratch and claw its way to one of the top five or six opening days ever for a comic book movie. That could make it the 2nd-biggest opening day ever for a film from the X-Men franchise, trailing only the first day for X-Men 3.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENING DAYS FOR COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS
1. The Dark Knight – $67.1M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $59.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand – $45.1M
4. Spider-Man 2 – $40.4M
5. Spider-Man – $39.4M
6. Iron Man – $35.2M
7. X-2: X-Men United – $31.25M
8. Watchmen – $24.5M
9. Hulk – $24.2M
10. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer – $22M

There is always room for an inspired piece of counter-programming, and Warner Bros is apparently executing just that. The Matthew McConaughey-Jennifer Garner-Michael Douglas rom-com Ghosts of Girlfriends Past could reach a very solid $18M by appealing to Females 25 Plus.

The only other wide release is Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Atttractions), a sci-fi 3-D release unluckily sandwiched between Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) and Pixar’s Up (Disney) on the 3-D release schedule. Despite essentially decent early reviews (70% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), Terra will not be putting up much of a Battle. The 3-D screen count will be low, and there has been no real marketing money spent on getting this one launched. I’m predicting about $3.4M, which might be enough to “sneak it” into the top twelve for the frame.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF MAY 1-3
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $92M
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $18M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $10.2M
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $6.5M
5. Earth (Disney) – $5.6M
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.5M
7. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5M
8. State of Play (Universal) – $4.3M
9. Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $3.9M
10. Fighting (Rogue) – $3.8M
11. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $3.5M
12. NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate) – $3.4M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Beyonce does battle with the sexy Ali Larter (HEROES) in OBSESSED

OPENINGS FOR BEYONCE MOVIES
1. Austin Powers: Goldmember – $70.3M opening
2. Obsessed – $27.5M opening (projected)
3. Pink Panther (2006) – $20.2M opening
4. Dreamgirls – $14.1M wide break (after a platform start)
5. The Fighting Temptations – $11.7M opening
6. Cadillac Records – $3.4M opening

Now a million-selling solo artist with ubiquitous hits like Irreplaceable and Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It), she is beginning to cash in at the box office. She parlayed supporting roles in Mike Myers Austin Powers: Goldmember and Steve Martin’s Pink Panther into the showy Deena Jones role in the film adaptation of Dreamgirls, which topped $100M domestic (although the most of the awards hardware was ultimately taken home by Jennifer Hudson, winning Best Supporting Actress at both the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards). Beyonce received generally good notices for her turn as Etta James in Cadillac Records in December, although the movie was a box office dud with just $8.2M domestic. Now she has managed a surprise hit on her own with Obsessed.

By all accounts the movie is not very good. Sony didn’t screen it for critics, and the early reviews trickling in decidedly negative (25% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). Perhaps the excellent Pete Hammond from Hollywood.com sums it up best saying, “It’s strictly a generic thriller, perhaps the 105th blatant rip-off of Fatal Attraction, but not without its own guilty pleasures.” My hunch is that there is some trashy fun here with a “girl-on-girl smackdown” (Geoff Berkshire’s words from his review on Metromix.com), and the other girl is the stunning Ali Larter from NBC’s Heroes. Still when all is said and done, Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine (Fox) and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) starring Matthew McConaughey, both due next Friday, are certain to make Obsessed a one-week wonder, and it may get a speeding ticket on its way to home video.

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE kicks off the summer next Friday

Even if Beyonce’s “movie legs” aren’t as long as her real (and shapely) legs, Obsessed has set a new opening record for the last weekend of April, traditionally a studio dumping ground for schlock and tough-to-sell movies.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS ON LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL
1. Obsessed (2009) – $27.5M (projected)
2. Mean Girls (2004) – $24.4M
3. Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Universe (2005) – $21.1M
4. Baby Mama (2008) – $17.4M
5. RV (2006) – $16.4M
6. Identity (2003) – $16.2M
7. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay (2008) – $14.9M
8. XXX: State of the Union (2005) – $12.7M
9. Driven (2001) – $12.1M
10. United 93 (2006) – $11.5M

Former A&F model Channing Tatum is flexing his box office muscle this weekend in FIGHTING

Aside from the monstrous upside surprise for Obsessed, the strong performance of Fighting (Rogue) ranks as the biggest box office upset of the weekend. This Channing Tatum vehicle from his A Guide To Recognizing Your Saints director Dito Montiel didn’t seem to have much traction in pre-release audience tracking, but the PG-13 street fighting yarn has actually delivered the second-best Friday gross with about $4.46M. It will be pretty front-loaded, but should still reach a better-than-expected $12M by Monday, enough for second-place.

Zac Efron is proving to be a little less durable among the teen and pre-teen set than I would have thought. 17 Again (Warner Bros), also starring Matthew Perry and Mrs. Judd Apatow (Leslie Mann) has delivered a second Friday in the $3.85M range. The weekend could hit $10.83M or so, second for the 3-day, for a new 10-day cume of $39.13M, but that represents a deeper-than-expected 54% drop.

Next comes the long-delayed Robert Downey Jr./Jamie Foxx project The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount). Originally slated for December with hopes of a Best Actor nomination for Downey, Jr., the Joe Wright-directed tearjerker was first moved to March before settling into this unfriendly last weekend of April slot. Reviews are respectable (61% Fresh on RT) and Downey, Jr. and Foxx both have real drawing power. At just over 2,000 playdates, the movie has managed a tuneful $3.43M (#4 for the day) to start the frame, and opening weekend could reach $10.29M, good for fourth place. The 25 Plus appeal, especially with women, gives this one a chance to do respectable business over the next couple of weekends as counter-programming to the first few summer blockbusters.

A Great White Shark lunging out of the ocean to snatch a seal in Disney's EARTH

Rounding out the top five, and a bit of a disappointment, is Earth (Disney). The studio’s calculated use of Earth Day to release its Cliffs Notes version of the BBC miniseries Planet Earth has, however, paid some dividends. The 11-hour miniseries has been boiled down to the cutest and scariest animals along with the most fascinating images and picturesque landscapes in a tight 90-minute package, and the re-purposed result generated just over $4M for Wednesday’s Earth Day celebration, adding another $1.6M or so on Thursday. Now the nature doc, which is running at 83% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, has slumped to an estimated $2.9M in Friday sales. It will play big with family audiences on Saturday and Sunday (the kids will be unable to resist baby polar bears sliding down a snowy arctic slope), but I am penciling in Earth for a 3-day of only $10M. That still gives it the biggest 3-day opening ever for a nature doc, although this is also the widest opening ever for a movie of this type.

ALL-TIME TOP 3-DAY OPENINGS FOR NATURE DOCS
- total domestic cumes included -
1. Earth – $9.39M (projected)
2. March of the Penguins – $7.1M opening – $77.4M cume
3. Two Brothers – $6.1M opening – $19.1M cume
4. Winged Migration – $470,000 biggest weekend – $10.7M cume
5. Arctic Tale -  $207,000 opening – $830,000 cume

2004’s Two Brothers, a story of tiger cubs from director Jean-Jacques Annaud, was a wide release like Earth, but the other 3 films listed above were platformed. Disney’s abridged version of Planet Earth has no chance of reaching the staggering success of 2005’s March of the Penguins, but Earth could get to the $30M range even with summer’s biggest guns blazing starting next Friday.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $11M, $4,375 PTA, $11M cume
2. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $4.46M, $1,932 PTA, $4.46M cume
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $3.85M, $1,183 PTA, $32.15M cume
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.2M, $1,581 PTA, $3.2M cume
5. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $2.9M, $1,608 PTA, $8.54M cume
6. State of Play (Universal) – $2.08M, $741 PTA, $20.31M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.05M, $579 PTA, $168.34M cume
8. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $1.93M, $541 PTA, $141.09M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $1.77M, $548 PTA, $60.98M cume
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $850,000, $382 PTA, $9.96M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $27.5M, $10,939 PTA, $27.5M cume
2. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $12M, $5,197 PTA, $12M cume
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $10.83M, $3,327 PTA, $39.13M
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $10.29M, $5,084 PTA, $10.29M cume
5. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $10M, $5,543 PTA, $15.64M cume
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.5M, $2,531 PTA, $174.79M cume
7. State of Play (Universal) – $7.1M, $2,529 PTA, $25.33M cume
8. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $6.65M, $2,058 PTA, $65.86M cume
9. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $5.79M, $1,625 PTA, $144.95M cume
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $2.8M, $1,259 PTA, $11.91M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

The summer kicks off in earnest on Friday with “X-Men Origins: Wolverine.” It’s followed quickly by “Star Trek” the next week.

Both franchises are beloved totems of my youth.

I remember biking down to the 7-11 to get the latest X-Men comic just about as fondly as I do seeing “Star Trek: The Wrath of Kahn” 13 times one summer at the local Edwards theater.

That makes me wonder which I want to see more.

There’s been very little, review-wise, on “Wolverine,” even given the workprint leaked online. But yesterday, Ain’t It Cool News posted a psuedo-review that sheds some light.

It breaks down to good performances, lots of action, good fights, and an incoherent story. Sounds like half the films released last summer.

From AICN:

The finished effects are lackluster, to say the least – some really bad CGI work made me groan numerous times (especially, but not restricted to, Patrick Stewart’s cameo). The scene with Stewart looks so much better in the workprint – trying to digitally de-age him did NOT work this time around…

Good pacing, good lead performances, and some cool comic book fights overcome a non-existing story, horrible dialog (including the classic “I’m so cold…”), and criminally underdeveloped characters. It’s a fun flick, but it will never be considered one of the great comic book movies of our time (like Iron Man, Dark Knight, Watchmen, etc.).

Then there’s “Star Trek.” (I have to note the irony here of Patrick Stewart in “Wolverine” going up against a Star Trek film.)

There has been endless promotion about this project, including a batch of 15 new pictures released today. Here’s one:

And though it opens a week after “Wolverine,” “Trek’s” reviews are already in and they’re generally rapturous (see the story I did on those here.)

Subsequently, I’ve heard from colleagues who’ve seen the film and say Eric Bana is, despite the chatter, good as the villain. They also say Zach Quinto gives great Spock.

In addition, I’ve heard from multiple sources that Simon Pegg, as Scotty, steals every scene he’s in.

All of which means bupkis to the moviegoing public.

Presales on movie ticketing service Fandango have the films in a virtual dead heat, with “Wolverine” accounting for 10% of all tickets sold and “Star Trek” 12%.

I haven’t seen numbers from competing service Movietickets.com but, according to The Business Insider, Movietickets has “Wolverine” outpacing last summer’s champ “Iron Man” by a 3-to-1 ratio at the same point before its release.

The 4 new wide releases and 1 major specialty release set to debut this weekend will face an onslaught of mega-hits over the next month. How can Obsessed (Sony), Earth (Disney), The Soloist, (Dreamworks/Paramount), Fighting (Rogue) and The Informers (Senator) possibly find an audience with X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) arriving next weekend followed by, in successive weeks, Star Trek (Paramount), Angels & Demons (Sony), the combo of Night at the Museum 2 (Fox) and Terminator: Salvation (Fox) and Disney/Pixar’s Up?

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE starring Hugh Jackman will be unleashed next weekend

End of April starters have tended to be genre pics like 2003’s Identity and The Invisible (2007), mid-budget messes that have fallen short of expectations like the ridiculous Next (2007) starring Nicolas Cage and XXX: State of the Union in ’05, and tough-to-sell pictures like the excellent United 93 (2006) from director Paul Greengrass and the good-hearted 2006 movie Akeelah & the Bee. Tina Fey is the unofficial queen of the last weekend of April, writing and starring in Mean Girls and mugging her way through Baby Mama with Amy Poehler last year.

30 ROCK's Tina Fey has starred in 2 of the 3 biggest last weekend of April openers ever

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS ON LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL
1. Mean Girls (2004) – $24.4M
2. Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Universe (2005) – $21.1M
3. Baby Mama (2008) – $17.4M
4. RV (2006) – $16.4M
5. Identity (2003) – $16.2M
6. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay (2008) – $14.9M
7. XXX: State of the Union (2005) – $12.7M
8. Driven (2001) – $12.1M
9. United 93 (2006) – $11.5M
10. Stick It (2006) – $10.8M

The likely weekend winner will be either Obsessed or Disney’s nature doc Earth, which opened Wednesday to about $4M, but I am giving the nod to recording superstar Beyonce despite the fact that Sony has kept its exploitative-looking thriller completely under wraps. Under its Screen Gems banner, Sony knows how to squeeze one good weekend out of movie like this regardless of how bad it is. Last year, Screen Gems scored excellent 3-day starts for sub-par movies like Prom Night ($20.8M), First Sunday ($17.7M), Lakeview Terrace ($15M), Quarantine ($14.2M) and Untraceable ($11.3M). Industry tracking suggests that Beyonce could drive the certain-to-be-forgettable Obsessed to a decent $15M opening weekend, and it will likely play very well at inner city theatre properties.

That would push Earth to #2 for the frame. The Earth Day opening was successful, and critics love the film (83% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). Family audiences love cute baby animals so Disney has excerpted the amazing BBC miniseries Planet Earth to fashion their own March of the Penguins-style narrative nature doc. It’s hard to imagine anything cuter than baby polar bears sliding down a snow bank, and it’s hard to come up with anything scarier than a Great White Shark lunging out of the water after its prey. I have seen the full length miniseries, but not Disney’s movie. Still it’s hard to imagine this not being unbelievably compelling stuff, even in its 90 minute theatrical version (although I still recommend tracking down the full BBC series instead). I am forecasting a possible $13.2M for 3-days, which would mean a 5-day start of just over $19M.

Last weekend’s champ, 17 Again (Warner Bros) starring ‘tween heartthrob Zac Efron, should hold up fairly well. The word-of-mouth is very positive, and that could mean a drop of only 46% or so to about $12.7M and a new cume of just over $40M by Monday.

Oscar nominee Robert Downey, Jr. (TROPIC THUNDER) and Academy Award winner Jamie Foxx (RAY) star in THE SOLOIST

The Joe Wright-directed The Soloist has been juggled around the release schedule with abandon, but it has been very well marketed with a heavy TV campaign, especially during shows geared for the 25+ crowd. The reviews are a mixed bag (54% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but there will be some business in this title. Some of my sources are saying $12M-$14M, but I am calling for a possible $11.6M.

The well-reviewed Russell Crowe journalism thriller State of Play (Universal) will almost certainly hang onto a spot in the top 5. The dip will be gentle (maybe 35%-40%), and this very good adult film could generate another $9M in ticket sales.

FINAL PREDICTION FOR APRIL 24-26
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $15M
2. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $13.2M
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $12.7M
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $11.6M
5. State of Play (Universal) – $9M
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $7.9M
7. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $7.4M
8. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $7M
9. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $5.8M
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $2.8M
11. Knowing (Summit) – $2M
12. NEW – The Informers (Senator) – $1.7M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

What was surprising however, is that this time, the leak was universally condemned by Wolverine’s online fan community, bloggers, movie buffs and comic book fans.  Several movie blogs are refusing to run reviews of the raw footage (FoxNews.com’s Roger Friedman was fired for writing a review of the pirated copy), while others such as Dark Horizon have condemned the uploading of the pirated copy as an “act that cruelly robs thousands of people of not just months of hard effort, but their livelihood as well.”  The New York Times was even spurred to ask whether Internet access is a fundamental human right, or a privilege, carrying with it a responsibility for good behavior.

Could the leak of Wolverine be the seminal moment when online piracy jumped the shark?  That’s doubtful, but the tide of public opinion does seem to be starting to turn.

Sweden has a particularly bad reputation when it comes to digital piracy.  It is the home of Pirate Bay-the self-proclaimed world’s largest bittorrent tracking site-but its bad reputation is well-deserved for other reasons too: the country’s main statistics agency recently estimated that 8% of the Swedish population uses P2P networks, and even major party political candidates there have supported decriminalizing “non-commercial” file-sharing. (Just how transfers of complete creative works can be considered “non-commercial” is befuddling: there is certainly a commercial impact on the creators, artists, and musicians who are not being compensated.  It’s a bit like saying that people who knowingly swap or receive stolen goods aren’t actually doing anything wrong, which is a bit of a head-scratcher.)



Even more stunning evidence of Sweden’s illegal file-sharing problem came last week when a new law aimed at curbing piracy took effect. The law, based on the EU’s Intellectual Property Rights Enforcement Directive (IPRED), requires ISPs to divulge information about illegal file-sharing activity, allowing copyright holders to take legal action against infringers. The day after the law took effect, Internet traffic in Sweden plummeted by over thirty percent in the first 24 hours, and there’s little doubt as to why.  

But were the file-sharers suddenly scared straight?  It seems unlikely that that’s the case given the overwhelming sense of entitlement many Swedes seem to feel towards their “free” digital content.  As the BBC reported, Kjell Bohlund of the Swedish Publishers’ Association said an incredible 80 percent of Swedes don’t think copyright holders should take action against P2P users.

Christian Engstrom of the Swedish Pirate Party-a political party working for copyright “reform” in Sweden (i.e. decriminalizing file-sharing)-agrees that the majority of file-sharers haven’t simply given up or seen the error of their ways.  Engstrom told the BBC, “Experience from other countries suggests that while file-sharing drops on the day a law is passed, it starts climbing again. One of the reasons is that it takes people a few weeks to figure out how to change their security settings so that they can share files anonymously.”

Turns out, he was right.  In response to the new law, Pirate Bay launched a new service just a week after IPRED took effect called (mockingly) Ipredator, which anonymizes users’ IP addresses so they can continue to share files without fear of legal action.  The service will also make it next to impossible to find identity thieves and other cyber-criminals who can now use the service to anonymously carry out even more online mayhem, but as long as illegal file traffickers can continue to get their “free stuff” this is apparently an acceptable price to pay. Before the service even went live, over 100,000 people had signed up, roughly 80 percent of them Swedes, a Pirate Bay spokesman told a Swedish news agency.

Speaking about the sense of entitlement Swedes seem to feel, Bohlund of the Swedish Publishers Association remarked, “Ultimately we have to change people’s perception on file-sharing” so that they understand they’re “taking money out of the pockets of musicians, authors or artists.”

In the U.S. this education process is now underway. Several ISP’s here are now sending notices to copyright infringers along with standard cease and desist letters from copyright owners.  CNET reported that these cover letters “inform the customer that downloading unauthorized copies is illegal,” but noted that ISP’s have no intention of cutting off subscribers for repeat offenses, as would happen under a “three-strikes” rule. 

According to ISP’s, even without a three-strikes threat, the letters seem to be working; there have been few repeat offenders.  While it’s still early, the evidence so far seems to suggest that U.S. Internet users don’t want to contribute to the growing trend of online lawlessness and are responsive to educational efforts discouraging it. 

With the explosion of free and inexpensive content online-subscription based service like Netflix, ad supported like Hulu, or pay-per-download like iTunes-getting users to switch from illegal P2P downloads to legal options isn’t a tough sell.  As Billboard.biz reported earlier this month, P2P use among American teens is on the decline as they move to streaming sites that increasingly provide safe, legal, licensed content.

That’s good news, but in other parts of the world, there’s a lot more work to be done.  But with collaboration between technology companies and copyright owners-plus flexible policies that allow those companies to find innovative new ways to deliver content legally-public opinion is shifting. As Internet consumers increasingly have other legal options to enjoy content online, sites like Pirate Bay that relish thumbing their noses at the law are starting to look like the irresponsible Internet citizens that they are.

Last week was a look at 5 summer films worthy of both ten-bucks and clock watching, next go-round will be those we’re unsure about, but today there’s no doubt a beating’s in store for anyone foolish enough to drop the jing. We will though, because during summer a cool poster promising explosions is all we ask.

May 1st:  X-Men Origins: Wolverine – X-Men represents the most forgettable superhero franchise ever.  To be fair, the only reason I remember those “Fantastic Four” flicks more is because of how hard they sucked, but over three films and 6-plus hours the only “X-Men” scene that made any kind of impression was Magneto’s escape in the first or second one. The Wolverine trailer promises more of the same: obvious special effects but no “moment,” and Hugh Jackman remains a phenomenon all too common these days: a television-level talent working on the big screen.

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May 1st: Ghosts of Girlfriends Past – I’ve never looked forward to anything Matthew McConaughey’s done and don’t intend to change now. The high-concept romantic comedy is the worst genre going today but no matter how bad they are, they make money. “Four Christmases” and “What Happens in Vegas” proved that. The photo above makes me want to start reading books again.

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May 8th: Melrose Trek – Yeah, I’ve been all over this, but thus far three scenes have been released and they are truly, truly bad. Kirk hitting on Uhura as she cracks jokes about sex with farm animals… Some things are just wrong. Regardless, the filmmakers want to put their best foot forward and these flat scenes proving there’s no chemistry between the players is the best they could do. There’s something odd about the look of the film, as well — I mean other than the overwhelming metrosexuality of it all.

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May 15th: Angels and Demons – Do you have to be Roman Catholic to comprehend just how awful the first one was? Granted, it made a ton of money, but what a snorer. I was too bored to be offended, and the research was terrible. When we punish ourselves the whip goes in the left hand, not the right. And I don’t get these comparisons of Tom Hanks and Jimmy Stewart. They’re nothing alike, not even close. That’s not an insult, I like Hanks, but if he reminds me of anyone from the Golden Era it’s Joseph Cotten – and that’s just as big of a compliment.

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June 5th: Land of the Lost - Other than his early Bush impersonation and “Step Brothers” (which I loved), Will Ferrell generally wears out his welcome in about 15 minutes. His refusal (or inability) to convey depth and sincerity might serve him well in this flip, post-modern age of Jon Stewart and raunchy, stupid comedies, but I hope to live long enough to see “Uncle Buck,” “Animal House,”  “Vacation,” “American Pie” and “Caddyshack” outlive his tedious schtick.

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August 7th: GI Joe – Our “Real American Hero” is now stationed in Brussels or something, and in this age of terrorism goes after a gun dealer … or something.  Director Stephen Sommers hasn’t made anything approaching watchable since “The Mummy” in 1999 and this looks like his usual bombastic, numbing nonsense with some lame political correctness to boot. GI Joe … a real Brussels based hero … GI Joe!

Let me close by saying that my mind can be easily changed if the movie’s good. If “Che” could win me over, “Trek 90210″ has a shot.

Next up … “The Maybe” — those that could go either way.