This hasn’t been the best of times for A-list movie stars.

First, Adam Sandler’s latest comedy, “Jack and Jill,” failed to measure up to his previous blockbusters. Over the weekend, the star-laden “New Year’s Eve” debuted at number one, but with a final tally of $13 million that few folks found impressive.

And Will Smith, arguably the most bankable star of his generation, has been MIA of late until the lackluster MIB3 trailer hit the Web today.

That brings us to Tom Cruise, the mega-star with the mega-smile. His latest film, “Mission:Impossible – Ghost Protocol,” opens in limited theaters Friday before going wide Dec. 21.

To say there’s plenty riding on the film for Cruise is a Hollywood-sized understatement. Should “Ghost Protocol” falter at the box office, it’ll be all the evidence needed that Cruise is no longer a box office draw.

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It’s been more than three years since we last saw Will Smith up on the big screen.

That’s an eternity for actors in their prime, let alone arguably the biggest movie star on the planet.

Smith was riding a gaudy career streak up until recently. Hits like “Hancock,” “Hitch,” “Men in Black II,” “I, Robot,” “I am Legend” and “Bad Boys II” all proved his box office prowess was no special effect. Perhaps the biggest test of his audience goodwill came with the 2006 smash “The Pursuit of Happyness.” That film couldn’t fall back on car crashes or existing material to draw a crowd. It was all on Smith, and he delivered.

Then along came “Seven Pounds,” and it felt like everything changed for the erstwhile Fresh Prince.

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This is something I’ve been writing about since I took to these here Internets in 2004 — and not gleefully. I love movies and I really love movie stars, and to watch the film industry devolve over the past decade into a CGI, shaky-cammed, high-concept, fanboy wet dream-a-thon has been more than a little heartbreaking. People used to argue with me about the death of the movie star. But not so much today. Now we’re just arguing over why.

In an interesting but flawed piece of analysis, The Daily Mail makes some key points and, I think, gets some things wrong:

Various reasons have been suggested to explain this new and — from the stars’ point of view — deeply worrying phenomenon.

Some say that blockbusting actors and actresses are simply pricing themselves out of the market. Depp, possibly the highest-paid actor in movies today, earns around £12 million a picture.

In his time, Cruise has done even better. With gross points — a percentage of everything taken at the box office — he pocketed nearly£50 million from Mission Impossible 2 in 2000.

But that was 11 years ago, when Cruise was in his heyday and the audience demographic was different. Then, the average age of cinemagoers fell roughly between 12 and 25.

Since then there’s been a considerable change. Today, the mass of cinema audiences is aged between 15 and 18 — and that’s what poses such a threat to the existence of big movie stars.

Kids of that age are not interested in veterans like Hanks (55), Cruise (49) or even Depp (48), except when he plays Jack Sparrow in the frankly juvenile Pirates Of The Caribbean series. Watching old men like them on screen would be like watching their fathers cavorting about.

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To hear Newsweek’s Allison Samuels tell it, the reason J.J. Abrams’ NBC spy series “Undercovers” was recently canceled after only a few weeks on the air is all because of race – is due to the fact that the show’s two leads were — in her words — “super-negroes.” Now, nothing makes me happier than to witness the liberal media rip into liberal Hollywood, and normally I would just stand back and enjoy the cannibalism. But this is not only a grievance-bridge too far, it also easily qualifes as the most condescending and dopey thing I’ve read all year. 

Had this published in Newsweek a few months ago, my guess is that the magazine would’ve sold for 50 cents instead of a dollar.

I think it’s possible that a slightly more obvious, disturbing reason could be behind Undercovers’ failure, and it’s pretty familiar: race. Prime-time audiences just weren’t ready for “super-negros” on the small screen. And that’s exactly what Undercovers was: a show about black people doing very “unblack” things. Before anyone gets upset, let me explain. “Super-negro” was a term my family often used while watching old Sidney Poitier movies back in the day. In Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner (our favorite), Poitier portrays a black doctor in love with a white, wealthy young socialite during the ’60s. Pretty early in the film, you begin to realize that Poitier’s character is not just any black doctor (an accomplishment in itself for most people then, and now); he’s a black doctor with degrees from several Ivy League universities, an internationally known scholar behind cures of dozens of diseases in Africa and elsewhere. Overkill. But Poitier portraying a “regular negro” was simply not good enough during those times, so the “super-negro” was born. The same could be said of his character from In the Heat of the Night, a Philadelphia cop with highly decorated awards.

Fast-forward 40 years, and it’s plain to see that Hollywood still hasn’t figured out a way to move beyond that absurd premise. It still can’t just fit us in. Yes, we often appear as sidekicks or backup characters in an array of popular shows in prime time, but rarely do we carry a show as the star or let the viewers come home with us.

For starters, this premise is just factually wrong. Unless Ms. Samuels is going to push her already laughable theory to the breaking point of splitting the fine hair between movies and television, it’s just a cold truth that Denzel Washington, Morgan Freeman and Will Smith not only qualify as her “super negroes,” but also happen to be three of the most universally popular and beloved actors in America today. Furthermore, only 6 million people tuned into “Undercovers” in a country where 42 million Black Americans currently reside. With those numbers you don’t need anyone of the Caucasian persuasion to create yourself a hit television show.

If NBC can’t win 20% of that particular demographic, how is the failure of “Undercovers” a race issue? Well, Ms. Samuels has an even more outrageous theory to answer that one. Be sure to pay extra special attention to what’s in bold [my emphasis]: (more…)

Pop quiz: what do the following movies have in common?

Gone with the Wind (1939), Star Wars (1977), The Sound of Music (1965), E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial (1982), The Ten Commandments (1956), Titanic (1997), Jaws (1975), Doctor Zhivago (1965), The Exorcist (1973), Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (1939), 101 Dalmatians (1961), The Empire Strikes Back (1980), Ben-Hur (1959), Avatar (2009), Return of the Jedi (1983), The Sting (1973), Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981), Jurassic Park (1993), The Graduate (1967), Star Wars: Episode I — The Phantom Menace (1999), Fantasia (1941), The Godfather (1972), Forrest Gump (1994), Mary Poppins (1964), The Lion King (1994)

If you said they all made scads of money, bravo — they are the top twenty-five domestic box-office champions of all time (adjusted for inflation, of course).

But consider another similarity: surprisingly few of them relied on established A-list movie stars — the most famous, the highest paid — for their moneymaking prospects. Gone with the Wind had Gable, yes. The Sting had Newman and Redford. The Godfather, Brando.

As for most of the rest, they either featured no A-listers at all, or used them before they became bonafide movie stars. In fact, many of those pictures can take credit for sending now-famous actors into the celestial Hollywood firmament in the first place. Gone with the Wind made Vivian Leigh known to the world. The Ten Commandments did it for Charlton Heston. The Graduate, Dustin Hoffman. The Godfather, Al Pacino. Star Wars, Harrison Ford. Mary Poppins, Julie Andrews. (more…)

Without question, my favorite 4th of July film is Independence Day (1996), also known as “ID4,” where earth engages in a desperate battle against evil extra-terrestrials (is there any other kind?).

Roland Emmerich, when he still used to make movies that entertained, pitted nerdy Jeff Goldblum, heroic Will Smith, and sensible Bill Pullman against massive enemy spaceships that were all but invincible until, ala War of the Worlds, Smith and Goldblum –  the Marine fighter pilot and the computer programmer — fly a captured alien fighter ship up to the mother vessel to impregnate it with a computer virus.

Smith’s lines remain classics to this day: after opening the hatch to a downed enemy fighter, he punches the slithering alien in the, well, face, and says “welcome to earth,” and while dragging the tentacled, smelly creature back to the base, he shouts, “I coulda been at a barbecue!” While ostensibly the movie pitted “humankind” in a struggle for survival, which Pullman, in one of the film’s lamest scenes, likened to our Independence Day, audiences knew the truth: the United States solved the problem with good old American insight, practicality, innovation, and Big Hollywood’s own Adam Baldwin. (more…)

Over the weekend I finally made peace with the fact that the Left is always right. They must be. They’re so persistent and sure of themselves regardless of the facts or what you and I would call common sense and decency, that there’s really no other explanation.

An excellent example is a recent column written by Owen Gleiberman, a film critic for Entertainment Weekly. In it, Gleiberman lashes out at those of us best described as ”small people” (i.e. not film critics) for having the gall to disagree with an actual critic’s opinion  — in this case, of just how incredibly awesome Jaden Smith (Will Smith’s 11 year-old son and star of the new “Karate Kid”) is.

Starting with this sharply written rejoinder, Excuse me, but what the heck is going on?, Gleiberman goes on to lay out a damning case that explains why racism is the only explanation for those who find young Jaden arrogant and resent the nepotism that made him a movie star. Gleiberman must be right, because his fervent illogical confidence says so. So…  (more…)

 A favorite tactic of the political left is to declare an opponent racist. Take the recent controversy surrounding Senate nominee Rand Paul. He was attacked as a racist after describing a libertarian view of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow. He did say he objected to the end of abhorrent racial segregation and persecution – he simply identified how the Act diminished the rights of private business owners. 

Hollywood politics are no exception to racial attacks. Recently Chris Lee of the Los Angeles Times wrote a piece about “Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time” and “The Last Airbender,” listing them as recent additions to Hollywood’s “rich history” of casting white actors in ethnic parts, giving the example of John Wayne playing Genghis Khan. 

Quickly, before I delve further into why Lee’s article is ridiculous, let me point out a double standard. In Tom Clancy’s book, “The Sum of All Fears,” his villains are Muslim extremists. In the film, they are neo-Nazis. No one complained about that swap, especially the Times, as their review ignores the change.  (more…)

I have yet to see a show business person give the acceptance speech they should at the Oscars. Instead, some turn the moment into a narcissistic stunt of protest, global outrage or badge of honor for whatever social injustice they have chosen that year. Rarely do they get it right.

Peachiness is nothing new to Oscar; it has been going on as far back as when those in Tinseltown hid in a Red closet while whispering “Government borscht for all.” The only thing that’s changed is the lack of awareness the winners have to the people who pay for their product, the product being they and their films, and the level of daftness that some accepting the award go to in an effort to feel more powerful than the money and fame they already have. Speaking out can be a good thing, especially when the speakers motive is to lift the awareness of all. Yet in Hollywood, a self-important attitude is hard for most to drop, as is the party line.

Last year, Sean Penn, a man with numerous felony charges including charges of violence against woman, and one who panders to tyrants the world over, preached to Americans after his win of the horrible and hateful state of mind that has fallen upon those who do not see the world as he does. The people of California came to their decision on gay marriage freely by vote, twice. Nevertheless, to Sean Penn the will of the people is only ever served when it slants in his favor or gives way to a photo op of him in a New Orleans boat shotgun in hand. Even his recent Haiti trip ultimately became just a reason for him to have face time on Larry King while hitting “Wiffle Ball” questions out of the park in the hopes of improving his public image, which is limited.

More often winners become so emotional that they lose it on stage like a Springer Spaniel wetting the carpet of its Masters home. Then becoming unable to articulate an awareness needed to give an educated speech in regards to the character they portrayed and how that role may be transferred to a larger audience for greater exposure. The speech they should have given gets lost in the moment of the self. (more…)

Being a celebrity means that you can do anything you want to do because you know more than the average person. Not just when it comes to hawking hair care products and credit cards, but important things like how to save the Earth and telling governors how to run their states.

And if you’re Tom Cruise, that means you are not only qualified to advise women on how to deal with postpartum depression, but you are also qualified to act as marriage counselor.

That’s right – Tom “Couch Commando” Cruise is, out of the goodness of his heart, David and Victoria Beckham’s new “relationship guru” – because you know with all of their money, they can’t afford a certified therapist:

After an evening with David, Tom decided to have a friendly chat with Victoria about the family’s future, saying it was because he cared so much about all of them,” revealed a source.

“They love each other dearly but Tom is a big believer in talking about issues . He could see they were both worried about the future and what it might hold.”

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Ah, Gwyneth. Obviously being fabulously rich and famous just isn’t enough for some people. A few years ago, after making the decision to make her home in London with beta male rocker Chris Martin of Coldplay, she told us how much she prefers living in Britain to her native country:

I love the English lifestyle, it’s not as capitalistic as America. People don’t talk about work and money, they talk about interesting things at dinner…I like living here because I don’t fit into the bad side of American psychology. The British are much more intelligent and civilized than the Americans.

When she says she doesn’t fit into the “bad side of American psychology,” she means she’s become one of the cultured elite overseas whose life mission seems to be badmouthing those mouthbreathing colonials from across the pond – although she’s happy to accept their money. (more…)

A 23.3 rating this year, compared to last year’s record low of 21.9. The headlines read, ”Oscar Ratings on the Rise.” If George W. Bush ran the Academy they would read, ”Oscar Viewership Barely Keeps Up With Annual Increase in U.S. Population.”

First the highlights: (more…)

Filmmaker Tyler Perry, with Oprah Winfrey as a role model, has consistently outsmarted Hollywood moguls since his debut feature Diary of a Mad Black Women. That Gospel-infused “fat-suit-in-drag” comedy was made for a mere $5.5M and scored an opening weekend of $21.9M, ultimately generating $50.6M in domestic sales.

The entrepreneurial spirit is alive and well with Tyler Perry

At only 39, Perry is building an empire. He officially christened Tyler Perry Studios last October in Atlanta with a star-studded event. The multi-million dollar project is a sprawling 30-acre working production facility in southwestern Atlanta, and the opening night party featured appearances by legendary African American actors like Sidney Poitier, Cicely Tyson, Ruby Dee, Lou Gossett, Jr. and Will Smith.

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A year ago, Fox scored a January hit with the female-geared 27 Dresses. The Katherine Heigl vehicle chick-flick opened with $23M on the weekend of January 18 en route to a nifty $76.8M domestic gross. Now Kate Hudson has produced and stars in the wedding-themed comedy Bride Wars, debuting on just over 3,000 screens in Friday.

Early reviews are downright awful for Bride Wars (00% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night), but Kate Hudson is a likable personality whose sub-par rom-com Fool’s Gold opened to $21.5M last February. Add to the mix Anne Hathaway with $100M-grossing movies Get Smart ($130.3M cume) and The Devil Wears Prada ($124.7) on her recent resume, and you’ve got a picture that could win the weekend. Tracking is strong with Under 25’s, and the Mean Girls-style marketing improves the chances that Under 25 Males will allow themselves to be dragged along to see it.

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Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

SUNDAY MORNING: Dog lovers everywhere united to make Fox’s Marley & Me the #1 Christmas weekend movie with an expected $51.18M in the Thursday-thru-Sunday period for a Per Theatre Average of $14,888. Pre-opening industry tracking pointed to a clear win for Bedtime Stories (Disney), but it was the lovable lab who finished on top.

As an aside, all of us who read John Grogan’s extraordinarily well-written novel should have seen this coming. The book is a joy, and anyone who has a dog, or has ever had a dog, could easily identify with the struggles and pleasures of having a 4-legged member of the family.

The success of Marley slightly mitigates a disastrous year for Fox. Its year started out well enough riding the huge success of 2007 release Alvin & the Chipmunks into January ($70M of Alvin’s gross landed in this calendar year). The January 18 release of chick-flick 27 Dresses scored for Katherine Heigl ($76.8M in the US), then Jumper was a good solid February hit, topping $80M, followed by the wildly successful Horton Hears a Who ($154.5M domestic). Little did Fox know that when the Ashton Kutcher-Cameron Diaz comedy What Happens in Vegas played solidly to the tune of $80.2M domestic starting in May, it would be its last legit hit until Christmas’ Marley & Me. This is a huge, redemptive win for Fox, and its sentimental tear-jerker of a dog movie could near $100M domestic by Sunday.

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The final studio estimates are in, and, as I first wrote Friday night, Jim Carrey’s Yes Man (Warner Bros) is the weekend winner, although the performance of the film was softer-than-expected. When the movie started with a soft $6.7M on Friday, it was hard to tell if it was because snowstorms in several regions of the country or just a failure to connect with audiences. Saturday’s small 3% increase to $6.7M appears to suggest the latter.

Still, Yes Man is performing well enough to help Warner Bros make history in the next couple of weeks. I am projecting that the film could bank a possible $48M (conservatively) before the end of the year. Add to that a projected cume of $120M for Four Christmases by the close of business on December 31, and an anticipated $5.4M or so from the limited engagements of Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (70 playdates starting Christmas Day), and Warner Bros would reach an annual domestic sales figure of $1.75 billion, surpassing Sony’s $1.71 billion take in 2006.

Meanwhile, Will Smith’s re-teaming with Pursuit of Happyness director Gabriele Muccino received a 9% Saturday bump from Friday’s $5.22M, but the movie still placed second with an estimated $16M. That represents the softest opening for Will since 2000’s Ali ($14.7M). Seven Pounds is almost-certain to break his historic streak of consecutive $100M+ grossing movies, which will end at 8.

For complete analysis of how Yes Man may cinch Warner Bros’ record-breaking year and what the tough opening Seven Pounds means to Will Smith, visit my Friday Night Early Estimates column and my Final Weekend Tracking column from Thursday. For details on the monstrous opening weekend success of The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) and details on the successful expansions of Gran Torino and Doubt (Miramax), check out my Saturday update.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON REVISED EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $18.16M, $5,288 PTA, $18.16M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $16M, $5,801 PTA, $16M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $10.5M, $3,385 PTA, $10.5M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $10.15M, $2,851 PTA, $48.62M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $7.74M, $2,203 PTA, $100.15M cume
6. Twilight (Summit) – $5.22M, $1,748 PTA, $158.46M cume
7. Bolt (Disney) -$4.25M, $1,434 PTA, $95M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $3.15M, $5,348 PTA, $12.13M cume
9. Australia (Fox) – $2.32M, $1,051PTA, $41.94M cume
10. Quantum of Solace (Sony) – $2.15M, $1,147 PTA, $161.3M cume
11. Milk (Focus) – $1.64M, $4,610 PTA, $10.32M cume
12. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.51M, $752 PTA, $172.33M cume
13. Nothing Like the Holidays (Overture) – $1.31M, $789 PTA, $5.94M cume
14. Doubt (Miramax) – $729,000, $18,692 PTA, $1.44M cume
*Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $468,000, $24,632 PTA, $859,000 cume
*Frost/Nixon – $365,000, $8,902 PTA, $1.47M
*NEW – The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $209,000, $52,250 PTA, $295,000 cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Bad weather with several major storms, including one in the Northeast, are making this a challenging weekend to project. I have revised my the 3-day estimates I released last night to allow for films to enjoy slightly stronger Saturdays, but the general story is the same. Jim Carrey and Yes Man (Warner Bros) at #1, Will Smith and Seven Pounds (Sony) at #2 and Tale of Despereaux (Universal) at #3.

My major analysis piece I published Friday night still stands with the headlines being that Warner Bros now seems destined to cinch the all-time best one year domestic sales figure in studio history and Will Smith’s streak of consecutive $100M grossing movies will almost certainly end at 8 with his Gabriele Muccino-directed drama.

One major change is that Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) hasn’t expanded nearly as well as I originally projected. The almost certain Best Picture nominee increased to 589 locations this weekend and the result will be a likely 8th-place finish with about $2.94M and a PTA of $4,999 or so.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON REVISED EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $19.5M, $5,684 PTA, $19.5M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $16M, $5,806 PTA, $16M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $14.09M, $4,540 PTA, $14.09M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $8.97M, $2,522 PTA, $47.54M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $7.3M, $2,080 PTA, $99.72M cume
6. Twilight (Summit) – $5.1M, $1,706 PTA, $158.3M cume
7. Bolt (Disney) -$4.45M, $1,501 PTA, $95.2M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.94M, $4,999 PTA, $11.92M cume
9. Australia (Fox) – $2.15M, $975 PTA, $41.77M cume
10. Quantum of Solace (Sony) – $1.6M, $798 PTA, $172.4M cume
11. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.6M, $798 PTA, $172.42M cume
12. Milk (Focus) – $1.57M, $4,417 PTA, $10.25M cume
13. Nothing Like the Holidays (Overture) – $1.15M, $689 PTA, $5.77M cume

On the specialty front, Mickey Rourke is a box office attraction again. The one-time movie star was at his peak in the 1980’s with movie like Diner ($14M cume), The Pope of Greenwich Village ($6.8M cume), 9 1/2 Weeks ($6.7M cume) and Angel Heart ($17.1M cume) is riding the crest of an enormous comeback wave. His role in Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) has already earned him a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actor – Drama and Independent Spirit Award nomination for Best Male Lead and a SAG Award nomination for Best Male Actor, and now the film has scored a huge opening weekend Per Theatre Average.

The Wrestler opened on Wednesday at 4 locations managing an outstanding $11,732 PTA. The extraordinarily well-reviewed movie is headed for a 3-day of $210,900, which will translate to an estimated $53,438 per location. That marks the second-best PTA of the year, trailing only the $60,236 debut of Frost/Nixon (Universal) two weeks ago.

At #2 on the weekend PTA scoreboard is Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (Warner Bros), which is a bit of a disappointment registering an average of approximately $23,400 at each of its 19 playdates. As Eastwood has admitted, this may be his final on-screen performance, but when the Hollywood Foreign Press ignored him in its annual Golden Globe nominations and then the SAG Awards bypassed the screen legend as well in the Best Male Actor category, it likely damaged the movie’s ability to compete on a limited basis with other pictures with stronger awards resumes.

In my Friday Night Estimates story, I wrote that Gran Torino may be able to bank $5.4M by the end of the year. Even with an expansion to 70 locations on Christmas Day, the softer-than-expected Friday probably means that Clint’s “swan song” is more likely to be at $3.1M or so at the end of business of December 31. Regardless, I am still projecting that Warner Bros will likely break the all-time one-year record for domestic sales for a studio.

John Patrick Shanley’s Doubt, a film adaptation of his Tony and Pulitzer Prize winning play, will bank about $703,000 or so this weekend at 39 locations for a PTA of just over $18,000. That compares favorably to recent movies like Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics), which managed $16,500 per screen in its first expansion (27 playdates) and Frost/Nixon, which generated just over $16,000 per screen in week #2 (39 playdates). With Golden Globe and SAG Awards nominations for Meryl Streep, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams and Viola Davis, Doubt should continue to play well through the awards season.

Weinstein has elected to hold expansion for The Reader until Christmas Day, so the picture remains on 4 screens and appears headed for about $114,000 by Monday, down about 35% from its opening weekend at the same locations. That would give Stephen Daldry’s Oscar contender the fourth-best weekend PTA at a possible $14,240.

Ron Howard’s amazing Frost/Nixon picked up just 2 new locations this weekend as Universal prepares for a major Christmas Day expansion. Powered by SAG Awards nominations this week for Best Ensemble and Best Male Actor: Frank Langella, the film will add about $361,000 this weekend, down about 42%. That equates to an $8,805 PTA, #5 for the frame.

STEVE MASON’S EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – 4 locations – $53,438 PTA
2. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – 19 locations – $23,400 PTA
3. Doubt (Miramax) – 39 locations – $18,026 PTA
4. The Reader (Weinstein) – 8 locations – $14,240 PTA
5. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – 41 locations – $8,805 PTA
6. NEW – Seven Pounds – 2,785 locations – $5,806 PTA
7. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – 3,434 locations – $5,498 PTA
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – 589 locations – $4,999 PTA
9. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – 3,104 locations – $4,540 PTA
10. Milk (Focus) – 356 locations – $4,417 PTA

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Jim Carrey and his high-concept comedy Yes Man (Warner Bros) will win the pre-Christmas weekend out-performing Will Smith’s more challenging Seven Pounds (Sony), although both films seem to be under-performing industry expectations.. Audiences are saying “Yes” to a breezy, cheerful, undemanding movie experience, although it is not a particularly emphatic “Yes.” In my Final Weekend Tracking column, I predicted $26.35M for Yes Man, and industry tracking certainly supported an opening in the mid-$20M’s. Instead, moviegoers have agreed to the tune of only $6.7M on opening day, and that could translate to a less-than-expected $18.76 or so by Monday morning.

Meanwhile, Will Smith has landed in unfamiliar territory. This strange new land for the World’s Biggest Movie Star is called “Second Place.” Seven Pounds managed to churn up only $5.3M to start the 3-day, and I am projecting a $15.63M opening. This movie, a re-teaming of Smith with his Pursuit of Happyness director Gabriele Muccino, has endured scathing early reviews and some definite “Will Smith is a little full of himself” backlash. The movie has been described as pretentious and downright dumb by some critics, and heart wrenchingly-optimistic and emotionally cathartic by others. The end result is Smith’s weakest opening since 2000’s Ali ($14.7M).

Yes Man is the latest in a year-long winning streak for Warner Bros Not only have they locked up the studio market share race for 2008, this decent-not-great opening may lift Warner Bros to finish the year with more domestic ticket sales than any studio in history. If my opening weekend number for Yes Man holds, I am projecting that the film could bank a possible $48M (conservatively) before the end of the year. Add to that a projected cume of $120M for Four Christmases by the close of business on December 31, and an anticipated $5.4M or so from the limited engagements of Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (70 playdates starting Christmas Day), and Warner Bros would reach an annual domestic sales figure of $1.75 billion, surpassing Sony’s $1.71 billion take in 2006.

The Dark Knight ($530.7M domestic so far) is the lynchpin of Warner Bros’ soon-to-be record-breaking year, but there are 4 other $100M+ grossing films that have helped to push the studio over-the-top. Along with Four Christmases, which will blow by $100M on Sunday, WB has also scored with Sex and the City ($152.6M cume), Get Smart ($130.3M cume) and Journey to the Center of the Earth ($101.7M cume). Sony set the previous record with one $200M+ performer (Da Vinci Code), 3 $100M+ hits (Casino Royale, Talladega Nights and Click) and about $96M of the ultimate $163.5M gross for Pursuit of Happyness, which landed in December 2006.

As for Will Smith, Seven Pounds is likely to break his historic streak of consecutive $100M+ grossing movies, which stands at 8.

2002 – Men in Black II – $52.1M opening – $190.4M cume
2003 – Bad Boys II – $46.5M opening – $138.6M cume
2004 – I, Robot – $52.1M opening – $144.8M cume
2004 – Shark Tale – $47.6M opening – $160.8M cume
2005 – Hitch – $43.1M opening – $179.4M cume
2006 – The Pursuit of Happyness – $26.5M opening – $163.5M cume
2007 – I Am Legend – $77.2M opening – $256.4M cume
2008 – Hancock – $62.6M opening – $227.9M cume

Critical pans be damned, people love Will Smith, but I am betting that the word-of-mouth on Seven Pounds will not be enough to net the 6.4 multiple that would be required to push it past $100M.

Universal’s Tale of Despereaux coaxed an estimated $3.8M in ticket sales to start the weekend and, with huge matinee business on Saturday and Sunday, the all-time umpteenth animated mouse movie should reach an estimated $15.27M good for third place, setting up for some solid holiday week business.

As expected, The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) has fallen apart, down about 67% for the weekend. Keanu Reeves’ spin on Klaatu could only muster $3.1M on its second Friday, and it will finish the frame with about $10.07M for a 10-day cume of $48.55M.

Rounding out the Top 5 is the aforementioned and surprisingly durable Four Christmases. Vince Vaughn and Reese Witherspoon enjoyed another $3.06M in Friday sales, and it will deliver $9.49M or so more of “holiday cheer” for Warner Bros by Monday morning.

Details of the weekend’s specialty releases and lots of analysis is on tap for Saturday morning.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $6.7M, $1,951 PTA, $6.7M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $5.3M, $1,922 PTA, $5.3M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $3.8M, $1,224 PTA, $3.8M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $3.1M, $871 PTA, $41.57M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $3.06M, $871 PTA, $95.47M cume
6. Twilight (Summit) – $1.55M, $521 PTA, $154.79M cume
7. Bolt (Disney) – $1.31M, $443 PTA, $92.06M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $1.24M, $2,120 PTA, $10.23M cume
9. Milk (Focus) – $804,000, $2,257 PTA, $9.48M cume
10. Australia (Fox) – $763,000, $345 PTA, $40.38M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $18.76M, $5,463 PTA, $18.76M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $15.63M, $5,669 PTA, $15.63M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $15.27M, $4,921 PTA, $15.27M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $10.07M, $2,830 PTA, $48.55M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $9.49M, $2,701 PTA, $101.9M cume
6. Bolt (Disney) -$5.66M, $1,908 PTA, $96.41M cume
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $4.86M, $8,268 PTA, $13.85M cume
8. Twilight (Summit) – $4.83M, $1,616 PTA, $158.06M cume
9. Milk (Focus) – $2.93M, $8,237 PTA, $11.61M cume
10. Australia (Fox) – $2.59M, $1,172 PTA, $42.21M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The weekend box office battle boils down to Jim Carrey vs. Will Smith. This is a match-up between the former “World’s Biggest Box Office Star” and the reigning champ, and I am giving a slight advantage to the challenger. Either Yes Man (Warner Bros) or Seven Pounds (Sony) could score the weekend-before-Christmas win, but I am predicting a victory for Carrey.

These are two of the most successful movie stars in history. Only Tom Hanks, Tom Cruise and Eddie Murphy have more $100M hits on their resume than Will Smith with 12, and Carrey is only one behind at 11 blockbusters to clear the magical threshold.

MOST $100M+ HITS IN A CAREER
-including animated films & excluding cameos -
1. Tom Hanks – 15
2. Tom Cruise – 14
3. Eddie Murphy – 13
4. Will Smith – 12
4. Harrison Ford – 12
6. Jim Carrey – 11
6. Robin Williams – 11
8. Mel Gibson – 10
9. Matt Damon – 9
10. Bruce Willis – 8
10. Jack Nicholson – 8

Will Smith, however, has done something unprecedented – a feat never done by the Toms – Hanks and Cruise. Hancock was his 8th consecutive $100M+ grossing blockbuster. Hanks and Cruise both had career-best streaks of 7 films topping $100M.

2002 – Men in Black II – $52.1M opening – $190.4M cume
2003 – Bad Boys II – $46.5M opening – $138.6M cume
2004 – I, Robot – $52.1M opening – $144.8M cume
2004 – Shark Tale – $47.6M opening – $160.8M cume
2005 – Hitch – $43.1M opening – $179.4M cume
2006 – The Pursuit of Happyness – $26.5M opening – $163.5M cume
2007 – I Am Legend – $77.2M opening – $256.4M cume
2008 – Hancock – $62.6M opening – $227.9M cume

For comparison, 5 of Carrey’s past 8 films have scored at least $100M domestic, including this year’s animated Dr. Suess’ Horton Hears a Who! ($154.5M cume), but he has veered away from the purely commercial with 2001’s poorly-reviewed drama The Majestic ($27.8M cume), the Academy Award winning Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind ($24.4M cume) in 2004 and 2007’s misguided horror release The Number 23 ($35.1M cume).

Neither picture is getting help from critics with Yes Man at 35% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and Seven Pounds registering a meager 30% Fresh as of Thursday night. Given the generally poor notices, I say Yes Man wins for 3 reasons:

1. More playdates 3,434 to 2,758
2. Tone – People are more interested in a couple of laughs than they are in a “heavy” spiritual message, even if it is generally optimistic
3. Warner Bros can do no wrong in 2008
4. Will Smith backlash

Lou Lumenick from the New York Post points out on his blog that on November 4, Will was informed by his 16-year old son that the Presidential race was over. The first-ever election of an African American to be the Leader of the Free World hadn’t reached the rarified air of the World’s Biggest Movie Star. Lumenick says he can’t imagine Paul Newman, a great movie star and philanthropist, ever being that out-of-touch with what’s important in the life of everyday people.

And there’s the brutally scathing Todd McCarthy review in Variety who rips Seven Pounds for its pretentiousness and self-importance. He reports that Smith doesn’t shy away from, “the saintlike status conferred upon his character. Indeed, he embraces it in a way so convincing that it proves disturbing as an indication of how highly this or any momentarily anointed superstar may regard himself.”

Just because media types think Will is a little “full of himself,” does not mean that the rank-and-file moviegoer will agree. In Australia, there is something called “Tall Poppy Syndrome.” As my always-credible friends at Wikipedia say, “Someone is said to be a target of ‘Tall Poppy Syndrome’ when his or her assumption of a higher economic, social or political position is criticized as being presumptuous, attention seeking, or without merit.”

Then again, it may all be a case of sour grapes. When a star of Smith’s caliber takes a risk – and make no mistake, this is a risky, challenging film – he should be accorded some respect for his effort. Let’s face it. If Will Smith wanted to crank out generic action movies for the rest of his life, Hollywood would give him big bags of money.

I believe that, even though Seven Pounds may not win its opening weekend, its heart wrenching-yet-hopeful story will connect with enough moviegoers to make it Will’s 9th consecutive $100M-grossing movie, which would be the 13th of his career. My final prediction is for a $24.78M opening. Meanwhile, the cheerful, if-not-hilarious high-concept comedy of Yes Man could win the weekend with a possible $26.35M.

Meanwhile, the other new wide release is Universal’s animated Tale of Despereaux, receiving fair-to-middling reviews as of Thursday night (43% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). With Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa nearing the end of its run and Bolt tailing off, industry tracking points to an opening in the mid-teens for Despereaux. My final call is for about $15.19M, which could set it up for a decent little Christmas week run.

Fox’s holdover The Day the Earth Stood Still will crash-and-burn this weekend, possibly dropping by as much as 67% for a disastrous $10.11M and a 10-day cume of only $48.6M. Close-behind at #5 will be Four Christmases (Warner Bros), which may drop as little as 25% to a possible $9.75M. By Monday morning, the Vince Vaughn-Reese Witherspoon holiday comedy will pass the $100M mark.

Among the specialty releases, Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) adds 420 locations and may deliver as much as $4.64M. Danny Boyle’s modern masterpiece is riding a huge wave of acclaim including Golden Globe nominations for Best Picture – Drama and Best Director and SAG Awards nominations for Best Ensemble and Best Supporting Actor: Dev Patel. No company is better at the “science” of a platform release than Searchlight, and I am forecasting a PTA of $7,891 for this gutty little Best Picture contender.

Other award favorites expand to varying degrees. Milk (Focus) adds 28 locations and could reach $2.8M for a $7,876 PTA. Miramax’s excellent Doubt, with Golden Globe and SAG Award nominations for Meryl Streep, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams and Viola Davis, expands to 39 playdates, and I am anticipating just over $1M for a Per Theatre Average of $27,341. Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (Warner Bros), which won him the National Board of Review’s Best Actor notice, but has been completely shut out of major categories at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards, adds 13 carefully chosen screens. I am calling for about $687,000 by Monday with a PTA of just over $36,000.

Oscar contenders Frost/Nixon (Universal) and The Reader (Weinstein) are holding off on expansion until Christmas Day. Powered by Frank Langella’s remarkable performance, Frost/Nixon seems headed for a $14,600 or so weekend PTA while Stephen Daldry’s meditation on Germany’s sense of guilt over the Holocaust should deliver just over $16,000 per location.

The new limited release this week is the critically-hailed Darren Aronofsky-directed Mickey Rourke vehicle The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight). The movie opened on 4 screens Wednesday churning up an $11,732 PTA on opening day alone. There is clearly more-than-a-little anticipation for this unexpected awards contender, and it may achieve just over $310,000 in just 5 days. That would mean a 3-day Per Theatre Average of almost $58,000, just shy of the year’s best weekend PTA mark set by Frost/Nixon 2 weeks ago.

FINAL WEEKEND PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF 12/19
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $26.35M
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $24.78M
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $15.19M
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $10.11M
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $9.75M
6. Bolt (Disney) – $5.49M
7. Twilight (Summit) – $4.78M
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $4.64M
9. Milk (Focus) – $2.8M
10. Australia (Fox) – $2.57M
11. Quantum of Solace (Sony) – $2.24M
12. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.84M
13. Nothing Like the Holidays (Overture) – $1.69M
*Doubt (Miramax) – $1.06M
*Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $687,000
*Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $602,000
*NEW – The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $232,000
*The Reader (Weinstein) – $131,000