THAT was a performance, as opposed to what we’ve seen from Streep for the last two decades.

I have a very simple rule when it comes to acting: If I notice the acting, if I see the strings — you’re doing it wrong. If you break the spell and take me out of the film with all your “technique” — you’re doing it wrong. If I notice your accent — you’re doing it wrong.  Patrick Swayze’s performance in “Road House” was ten-times better than almost anything Streep’s done since 1998. That’s not a joke, either. Swayze was more convincing, and that’s what true acting is really about. The rest is nothing more than bait for foo-foo critics and shallow Academy voters.

Anyway, here’s a wrinkle in Streep’s march to another trophy:

A Weinstein Company email that appears to skirt AMPAS campaign rules by using a third party to reach Oscar voters has stirred up anger among Academy members and rival campaigners.

But the email does not violate Academy regulations, AMPAS COO Ric Robertson told TheWrap on Tuesday. One of the organization’s campaign rules, he said, “allows for media entities to send such things to valid subscribers who’ve opted into being a subscriber.”

The email in question, which went out on Tuesday morning, is not part of Weinstein’s aggressive Best Picture campaign on behalf of “The Artist,” but instead promotes Meryl Streep’s Best Actress candidacy for “The Iron Lady.”

It was sent as a third-party advertisement by the Hollywood Reporter’s parent company, Prometheus Global Media, to THR subscribers, some of whom are Academy members.

Headed “From: The Weinstein Company: The Iron Lady,” its subject line reads “Exclusive Meryl Streep Video.”

The email contains a “for your consideration” ad with an embedded link. The ad is headed with a Thelma Adams quote – “It’s been TWENTY-NINE YEARS SINCE MERYL STREEP WON AN OSCAR and she certainly deserves to win for her performance in ‘The Iron Lady’!” – and then contains a link to a video interview with Streep on the Weinstein website.

The interview is moderated by Pete Hammond, who mentions the 29-year gap in his introduction and says, “Something has to be done about that!”

The rest of the article amounts mainly to push-back from the Weinstein Company:

“It seems that every time TWC is innovative there is always some jealous competitor who… comes out of the woodwork.”

It’s all inside-insidery that only helps to illuminate how bent leftists get at the thought of unbridled competition. These self-imposed rules surrounding Oscar campaigns are famously absurd (at least in the real world):

Academy campaign rule number four specifically prohibits emails that “extol the merits of a film, an achievement or an individual,” emails that contain references to past awards, and links to websites that promote an eligible film.

Rule five adds that references or links to websites are only allowed if the website contains basic screening information, with no promotion or “photographic, audio, video, graphical and other multimedia elements.”

The subtext is: Please, heavens, no, don’t make me compete! I can’t stand the pressure! And as a result, you have the Weinsteins pushing for every advantage they can, and frequently benefiting from it.

Isn’t that right “Private Ryan?”

“The Help” is a film that pulls off the impressive balancing act of depicting the explosive subject of race and class in the most crowd-pleasing manner possible. Naturally, this means that “The Help” is not a movie that will necessarily challenge you on its subject matter, but most movies that try to come off as crowd-pleasers while using race and class as themes often come off as condescending or sanctimonious. “The Help” manages to dodge these bullets, ultimately winning over the audience with its memorable characters.

Taking place in Jackson, Miss. in the early sixties, the film is about a gal named Skeeter (Emma Stone, going all frizzy blonde) straight out of Ole Miss, who returns to her home in Jackson seeking a job as a writer. Relegated to a simple household cleaning column at the local paper, Skeeter seeks cleaning tips from a maid named Aibileen (Viola Davis), who works for one of her childhood friends. Her experiences with Aibileen causes her to consider the manner in which “the help” are treated in white Mississippi homes, and she looks to pen a book that will show the world from their perspective, in order to kick-start her career as a serious writer.

However, the intricate tentacles of Jackson’s supposedly polite society make this effort difficult, if not flat-out dangerous. The malevolent head of the wicked gossip-kraken is Hilly Holbrook (Bryce Dallas Howard), a potent villainess who reaches Nurse Ratchet-levels of audience scorn.

The skeleton of the story in “The Help” seems like the obnoxious enlightened white person turning a backward society around in a manner they could never have done without them; however, Stone’s Skeeter is hardly the enlightened Jesus-like Jake Sully from “Avatar,” the Caucasian warrior who must save an oppressed ethnicity from whitey’s claws. Such characters exist only in the minds of garden-variety white liberal writers.

Skeeter’s initial objective isn’t to selflessly liberate the oppressed or show her friends and family how horrible they truly are. Her character has a bottom line she sets out to achieve; her method of doing so is a difficult but ultimately positive one that she quickly comes to believe in. In the end, though, the seed of awareness is planted, things are better for Skeeter, but the situation for “the help” is otherwise the same. The insensitivity of the liberal elite is shown through the New York publisher Skeeter is trying to sell her idea to, insisting that she needs to get the book done soon, before, as she puts it, the whole Civil Rights thing blows over.

The rest of the white characters surrounding Skeeter are mostly southern rich-bitch stereotypes, especially during the film’s first act, though a few do gain a bit of nuance by the end, particularly Skeeter’s mother (Allison Janney), who is the source of conflict at home.

The stand-out performances are given by Davis and Octavia Spencer. Spencer’s character is what Donald Bogle refers to as the stereotype of “the mammy,” the large, de-sexualized black woman who doesn’t take shit from anyone. However, she delivers the film’s most memorable (and hilarious) moments with superb skill. Her role is a highlight, alongside Howard’s truly vile gossip queen. Davis’s Aibileen also serves as the film’s narrator, and her quiet performance is ultimately the movie’s standout.

“The Help” isn’t as daring or as interesting an exploration of race in the south during the Civil Rights era as it thinks it is, but my hat is off to it for being a truly entertaining and enjoyable film that hits those topics. The movie gets truly cheap during its final act in how it shamelessly fishes for tears from the audience in a manner that reaches Paul Haggis levels of overt manipulation, but in the end I was moved and entertained, along with everyone else in the theater. As lame as this sounds, it really is the most successful “crowd-pleaser” I’ve seen all year. That’s not to say it’s “the best” of what I’ve seen in 2011 – far from it. However, I can’t imagine people coming out of this one with their arms crossed, granted they’ve checked their cynicism at the door.

Available on Amazon Instant, Blu-ray/DVD/Digital, Blu-ray/DVD combo and DVD

Other Noteworthy Releases

Cowboys & Aliens: Like so many of this summer’s blockbusters, this one was bland and unsatisfying in spite of the great talent in front of and behind the camera.  Head on over to my blog for my full thoughts.

Available on Amazon Instant, Blu-ray, DVD, and a DVD gift set

The Hangover Part II: This sequel to Todd Phillips’s sleeper hit was more of the same in a different setting, though it does have its moments.  Head on over to Parcbench for my full review.

Available on Amazon Instant, Blu-ray/DVD Combo, Blu-ray, and DVD

Mr. Popper’s Penguins: This’ll make a good stocking stuffer for the little ones, or so I’m told.

Available on Amazon Instant, Blu-ray and DVD

The Debt: I don’t know much about this one, apart from the fact that it stars Helen Mirren, Sam Worthington, and the incredibly talented Jessica Chastain (who also appears in “The Help” this week). The premise involves Mossad agents, which makes me wary, as I still suffer from flashbacks to the soapboxy final act of “Munich”.

Available on Blu-ray and DVD

Dragon Tattoo Trilogy – Extended Edition: In anticipation of David Fincher’s remake of “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”, the acclaimed trilogy gets a dip in a box set.

Available on Blu-ray and DVD

Tora! Tora! Tora!: The anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor is this week, but why bother with the Michael Bay interpretation when you have this film? Akira Kurosawa was originally going to go Hollywood and direct the Japanese segments of this film, but his clashes with the studio caused him to drop out. He was replaced by Kinji Fukasaku (alongside Toshio Matsuda), who is known for directing films like “Battle Royale,” “Battles Without Honor & Humanity,” and the schlock classic “The Green Slime.” Richard Fleischer, the guy who gave us “20,000 Leagues Under the Sea,” directed the American scenes.

Available on Blu-ray

Mystery Science Theater 3000 – Vol. XXII: This box set includes the episodes that cover “Mighty Jack,” “Time of the Apes,” “The Violent Years,” and “The Brute Man.” Speaking of “The Green Slime,” Fukasaku’s B-movie was the very first movie the MST3K crew riffed on in their pilot episode that never aired.

Available on DVD

The Lady Vanishes: Criterion is updating their edition of this Hitchcock classic to Blu-ray.  Naunton Wayne and Basil Radford would reprise their roles as Charters and Caldicott in Carol Reed’s “Night Train to Munich,” also available from Criterion.

Available on Blu-ray

Design for Living: This Ernest Lubitsch comedy starring Gary Cooper, Fredric March, and Miriam Hopkins gets the Criterion treatment.  These old Hollywood comedies have a level of craft and sexiness you don’t see in today’s slacker-dominated comedies.

Available on Blu-ray and DVD

Also, for those of you who like projectile vomiting while working out, this one’s for you.  It may accelerate your weight-loss, albeit in an unhealthy manner.

This post originally appeared over at Parcbench.

—–

Abileen, the kind-hearted soft-spoken maid, is the story’s narrator. By day, she works tirelessly for a female employer who neglects her own children and by night, she silently grieves the death of her own son. When a bathroom is added to the home she works in so that the African-American help don’t have to use the regular restroom, she is asked to accept this happily knowing that some of the women in town believe that black people spread diseases and shouldn’t be allowed to use the main bathroom.

As “The Help” begins, recent college graduate Skeeter (Emma Stone) is hired to write a cleaning column for the local newspaper. Skeeter, who is friends with Abileen’s boss, relies on Abileen for advice for the column. However, Skeeter eventually decides to start writing a novel about the maids in town who raise white children but are often treated poorly by their employers.

When Skeeter starts recruiting other maids for the book, she meets a lot of resistance from maids who fear for their jobs and their lives. If they are caught talking about their employers to a white woman, they could face a lot of trouble. However, Abileen eventually recruits her friend Minnie (Octavia Spencer) and others to participate in the process.

Much of the story works here but it moves very quickly at the beginning leading to a lot of overt exposition. The story is jam-packed with characters and plot twists, so the opening scenes feel rushed but does eventually settle down into a more manageable pace. I was reading the book when I first saw the movie and felt early scenes could have been handled a bit better by leaving out some unnecessary storylines.

When I recently interviewed Spencer and director Tate Taylor, they both noted that audiences didn’t see this film as a civil rights film which is absolutely correct. The story always stays focused on the characters and the story, instead of the events of that time period. Abileen, Minnie and Skeeter aren’t actively fighting for the cause of civil rights. They are just three people who want to tell the truth about how black maids were treated during that time period. Some maids tell stories about their bosses who make them feel like part of the family but others talk about how their employers treat them like second-class citizens.

The story does have some obvious flaws, especially some of those excessive storylines that make the film nearly two and a half hours long. When I talked to Taylor, who also adapted the book into a script, he told me that he tried to keep as much of the story as possible. On one level, that works but on another, storylines like Skeeter’s romance with the son of a prominent politician feel out of place. Despite that, several of the actresses do great work. Davis was well-chosen as the narrator but I was especially impressed with Spencer, who does an excellent job in a supporting role.

With the “help” of actresses like that and a great story to go along with it, “The Help” is not to be missed.

The quote above comes from the first page of Kathryn Stockett’s bestselling novel “The Help,” which tells the story of a group of black maids who worked in Jackson, Mississippi in the early 1960’s. These maids, who are often mistreated by their female employers,  eventually decide to talk about their work experiences to a young author who is compiling a book about them. Stockett’s novel has now been adapted into a movie and I recently had the opportunity to participate in a group interview with director Tate Taylor and actress Octavia Spencer about their new film, “The Help.”

Taylor, who is great friends with Stockett, talked about one of the main reasons that he enjoyed her manuscript and wanted to make it into a film. After noting that his single mother brought in someone to help raise him, Taylor added that he loved the idea of exploring the personal lives of maids and caretakers who help take care of other people’s children. Oftentimes, he said,  “a lot of African-American characters are just one-dimensional. They just help to serve information.” However,  in this film, the lives of these African-American maids are explored in depth and the characters are fully-realized individuals.

The story of the book itself is quite impressive. After being rejected dozens of times, it was finally published and became a national bestseller. Taylor was an early believer in the story and told me that he had “the rights to [Stockett's] book before she even had an agent or a publisher so we thought we were going off to make an independent film based on my friend’s unpublishable manuscript.”

Now, that “unpublishable manuscript” has become a great success and spawned a movie starring acclaimed actresses like Viola Davis, Cicely Tyson and Sissy Spacek.  When I asked Spencer why the story has resonated so strongly with audiences nationwide, she said that there were a couple of reasons behind it.  “The story’s told from a perspective that hasn’t been seen,” she said before adding that “the characters are so relatable” that people can find at least one character to relate to. Thirdly, she said that the story succeeded because  the  “themes are really really profound.” She added that the story is “about empowerment. It’s about finding your voice. It’s about being a hero of your own life. All of those things, I think, are transcendent of the time period…”

Interestingly enough, the book and the film have faced some controversies. One controversy arose because the book was written by a white woman who often writes from the perspective of black maids and another controversy arose because a white woman in the story serves as the voice for black maids, who aren’t able to tell their stories themselves. Like some of its critics, Spencer admitted that she originally had some trepidations about the story. Early on, she said that she “was ready to have a problem with this project” but after reading it, she “was pleasantly surprised and really in awe of  Kathryn because she took a great risk in telling this story.” Spencer added that Stockett was “always going to catch flak because she’s a white girl” writing a story from an African-American’s perspective.

In our interview, Spencer and Taylor also talked about the early reactions they’ve received after screening the film. Taylor noted that many audiences have been pleased because the film isn’t simply a history of the leaders of the civil rights era. As Taylor said, the story is “about everyday people” living in a certain time period and dealing with the realities of that period.

As Spencer said so well, “The Help” is a story about a lot of things including “empowerment” and people “becoming heroes in their own lives.” As someone who has read the novel and seen the movie, I can attest that this is a story worth reading and worth seeing at a theater near you.

“The Help” opens in theatres today.

Slumdog Millionaire is about to win the Hollywood's Grand Prize

The “Battle Royale” of the night is Mickey Rouke from The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) vs. Sean Penn in Milk (Focus) in the Best Actor category. There have been two ties in major categories in Academy Award history. The first was in 1932 when Frederic March in Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde shared Best Actor with Wallace Beery for The Champ. (March had one more vote, but in that era, any finish within 3 votes was rules a tie.) Then in 1968, Katherine Hepburn for The Lion In Winter and Barbara Streisand for Funny Girl tied for Best Actress. If there was any justice, Rourke and Penn would share the award. In any other year, either of them would be a lock. Forced to make a pick, I’m going with Rourke.

Does Streep's upset of Winslet at the SAG Awards set the stage for Meryl's third Oscar win?

Kate Winslet is on the cover of Time Magazine, and she has picked up a wheelbarrow full of hardware during this awards cycle, but a fair number of voters got their fill of Kate when she pulled off the double-win at the Golden Globes. My upset special is Meryl Streep for Doubt (Miramax). This is her 15th career nomination, and she has not won an Academy Award in 25 years (Sophie’s Choice in 1982). That is too long for the most-revered actress in history to go without getting one of those golden guys. Streep won the SAG Award for Lead Actress, and I think she has a real shot here. (It would be a huge upset.)

Finally if my predix hold up, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) would win only 2 Oscars – Best Visual Effects and Best Makeup – despite 13 nominations. That would be the fewest wins for any movie with 13 or more nominations. In fact, 2 wins would be among the poorest showings ever for a movie with 11 nominations or more.

Tied for the biggest shutout in Oscar history; Benjamin Button could win for Makeup and Visual Effects

FEWEST OSCAR WINS FOR MOVIES WITH 11 NOMINATIONS OR MORE
1. The Color Purple – 0 wins (11 nominations)
2. The Turning Point – 0 wins (11 nominations)
3. Chinatown – 1 win (11 nominations)
4. Johnny Belinda – 1 win (12 nominations)
5. Becket – 1 win (12 nominations)
6. Mr. Smith Goes to Washington – 1 win (11 nominations)
7. Pride of the Yankees – 1 win (11 nominations)
8. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 2 wins (13 nominations) – predicted
9. Rebecca – 2 wins (11 nominations)
10. Sergeant York – 2 wins (11 nominations)
11. A Passage To India – 2 wins (11 nominations)
12. Judgement at Nuremberg – 2 wins (11 nominations)

After weeks of obsessive study, relentless debate and intense soul-searching, here are my final Oscar predictions for all 24 categories.

BEST PICTURE
My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Milk

BEST ACTOR
My Pick – Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Consensus Pick – Sean Penn, Milk or Rourke
Dark Horse – None

BEST ACTRESS
My Pick – Meryl Streep, Doubt
Consensus Pick – Kate Winslet, The Reader
Dark Horse – Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My Pick – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Consensus Pick – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dark Horse – None

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My Pick – Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Consensus Pick – Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dark Horse – Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

BEST DIRECTOR
My Pick – Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Milk screenwriter Justin Lance Black

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
My Pick – Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Consensus Pick – Andrew Stanton, WALL-E
Dark Horse – Martin McDonagh, In Bruges

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
My Pick – Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – David Hare, The Reader

BEST EDITING
My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Frost/Nixon

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
My Pick – Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight

BEST ART DIRECTION
My Pick – The Dark Knight
Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse – The Duchess

BEST SOUND MIXING
My Pick – The Dark Knight
Consensus Pick – The Dark Knight
Dark Horse – Slumdog Millionaire

BEST SOUND EDITING
My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – The Dark Knight

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
My Pick – The Duchess
Consensus Pick – The Duchess
Dark Horse – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
My Pick – A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – A. R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
My Pick – Waltz with Bashir
Consensus Pick – Waltz with Bashir
Dark Horse – The Class

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
My Pick – Man on Wire
Consensus Pick – Man On Wire
Dark Horse – Trouble the Water

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
My Pick – WALL-E
Consensus Pick – WALL-E
Dark Horse – Kung Fu Panda

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
My Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse – The Dark Knight

BEST MAKEUP
My Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse – The Dark Knight

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
My Pick – Jaiho from Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Jaiho from Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Peter Gabriel, Down to Earth from WALL-E

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
My Pick – Toyland (Spielzeugland)
Consensus Pick – Auf der Strecke
Dark Horse – The Pig

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
My Pick – Presto
Consensus Pick – La Maison en Petits Cubes
Dark Horse – This Way Up

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
My Pick – The Conscience of Nhem En
Consensus Pick – The Witness
Dark Horse – The Final Inch

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

But, in the world of gambling, you always want to look for value. What are the films and performances with longer odds that would be worth a wager on Sunday? My purpose here is to establish a betting line for each of the six major categories, and then find the value bet in each category.

Question: Who will win Best Picture? Answer: Still, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

BEST PICTURE
Slumdog Millionaire – 1/7
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 6/1
Milk – 20/1
Frost/Nixon – 30/1
The Reader – 50/1

VALUE: I believe that in order to win an Academy Award, passion is required. Slumdog Millionaire has a passionate zeal among its supporters that will make it virtually unbeatable. Although I have made The Curious Case of Benjamin Button the second choice here, I give it very little chance of winning. It has major studio backing (Paramount), and it is certainly well-respected, but it is more admired than loved. So, for me the betting value is in Milk. Aside from Slumdog, it is the movie with the largest bloc of zealous fans. Gay and gay-friendly Academy members love the movie, and in the shadow of the passage of Proposition 8 in California, Milk is worth a $2 bet at the window.

Sean Penn's portrayal of Harvey Milk is now a decided underdog to Mickey Rourke

BEST ACTOR
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler – 1/2
Sean Penn, Milk – 3/2
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon – 10/1
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 25/1
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor – 35/1

VALUE: After colorful, rambling, verging on obscene acceptance speeches at both the Golden Globes and the BAFTA Awards, Mickey Rourke is the true favorite for Best Actor. Rourke has also campaigned hard, paying the paying the price for that Golden Globe win by schmoozing each and every one of those 95 Hollywood Foreign Press members. Penn just doesn’t play that awards campaign game at all, but actors love him. The only real betting value here is Penn, who still has a chance of winning his second Oscar.

It has been 25 years since Mery Streep won an Oscar

BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, The Reader – 1/2
Meryl Streep, Doubt – 5/2
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married – 4/1
Angelina Jolie, Changeling – 25/1
Melissa Leo, Frozen River – 35/1

VALUE: It is Kate Winslet’s year. Just ask anybody. She has two outstanding awards-caliber performances in The Reader and Revolutionary Road. If rules would have allowed, she might have been nominated twice in the Best Actress category. She’s 0-fer-5 lifetime at the Academy Awards and deserves to win, but she can be beaten. Jolie and Leo have no shot. Hathaway is the 3rd choice in the field, and a win is not inconceivable, but Streep is the value bet. The undisputed greatest living actress has not won an Oscar in 25 years, despite the fact that this is her eleventh nomination since winning for Sophie’s Choice in 1983.

Ledger is a lock

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heather Ledger, The Dark Knight – 1/100
Josh Brolin, Milk – 20/1
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder – 25/1
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt – 30/1
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road – 50/1

VALUE: None. There is no value in this category. Heath Ledger will win Best Supporting Actor posthumously. If you are unfamiliar with how odds work, 1/100 means that you would have to bet $100 to win just $1, and even then, it would be tough to get anybody to take your wager.

Marisa Tomei's "stripper with a heart of gold" in THE WRESTLER may earn her a second Oscar

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona – 1/2
Viola Davis, Doubt – 3/1
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler – 5/1
Amy Adams, Doubt – 12/1
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 15/1

VALUE: This is, by far, the most competitive of the major awards. The longest shot in the field, Taraji P. Henson from Ben Button, is only a 15-1 longshot. Woody Allen has a knack for helping actresses win in this category (ask Dianne Wiest , who scored for both Hannah and Her Sisters and Bullets Over Broadway). That points to a win for Penelope Cruz, who was raw and sexy as Maria Elena in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Davis can certainly win for her fleeting-but-powerful turn in Doubt, but my value bet is Marisa Tomei. Her first win, for My Cousin Vinny, was viewed by many as a fluke. In fact, there is an urban legend that she really didn’t win. The story goes that Jack Palance, who presented that year, read the wrong name (the legend claims that Vanessa Redgrave was the actual winner for Howard’s End). In reality, there is no doubt that Tomei is an Oscar winning actress, who gives her career-best performance in The Wrestler.

The uncompromising David Fincher

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire – 1/7
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 6/1
Gus Van Sant, Milk – 20/1
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon – 25/1
Stephen Daldry, The Reader – 35/1

VALUE: Nobody is going to beat Danny Boyle, but if I was looking for a strong value bet, I would wager on Fincher. He is a visionary with some amazing movies on his resume, including Se7en, Fight Club and Zodiac. He has worked with countless actors and industry types, and his uncompromising nature makes him tough to like, but easy to respect. If there were an upset in this category, Fincher is the only guy who could pull it off.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

BAFTA Winner Mickey Rourke

The two major uncertainties entering Sunday’s ceremony were whether Kate Winslet, twice-nominated for Best Actress, would split her own vote and miss out on her second BAFTA Award and who would prevail in the Sean Penn-Mickey Rourke battle for Best Actor. Aside from that, it seemed like a Slumdog sweep, and that’s exactly how it played out.

BEST PICTURE: Slumdog Millionaire
Presented by Mick Jagger, so good in 1992’s Freejack, also starring Emilio Estevez, Renee Russo and Anthony Hopkins, the Rolling Stones front man was chosen to lead the coronation. (I’m being facetious. Freejack was awful. Jagger just seems like an odd choice.)

BAFTA Winner Danny Boyle flanked by Patrick Stewart (left) and Ian McKellan

BEST ACTOR: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Chalk one up for Rourke. I think that the tide is turning in the Oscar race. Mickey dropped an F-bomb in his acceptance speech, and although censors will need every one of those 7 seconds of delay, I am now leaning to Rourke’s heroic turn as Randy “The Ram” Robinson to win Best Actor at February 22’s Academy Awards. A choice moment from Mickey’s speech, “Thanks to Marsei Tomei for constantly taking her clothes off on-screen…I enjoyed looking at her.” Here’s a link to Mickey’s acceptance speech with all the necessary bleeps.

Penelope Cruz, Mickey Rourke and Kate Winslet show off their hardware

BEST ACTRESS: Kate Winslet, The Reader
She was nominated for both Revolutionary Road an The Reader, but just as Oscar voters did, the BAFTA Awards voters preferred the slow burning guilt and shame of her performance in The Reader over her showy Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf-style theatrics in Rev Road.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
The year’s most memorable performance, and since TDK was snubbed for Best Picture at both the BAFTA Awards and the upcoming Oscars, this is the best way to pay tribute to the all-time second-biggest grossing movie in US history.

Cruz didn't have to contend with Winslet, with both of her nominations in the Best Actress category or Viola Davis (Doubt), a strong contender at the Oscars

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Very well-deserved. She had a tremendous year with both the edgy, verge of crazy Maria Elena from Woody Allen’s comedy and a haunting performance in the very underrated Elegy. With Winslet out of the Supporting Actress race at both the BAFTA Awards and the Oscars, Cruz gets her shot. Keep in mind that Viola Davis, so good in Doubt was not nominated here, but is a live bet in two weeks at the Academy Awards.

BEST DIRECTOR: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
The obvious choice. Manchester-born. The career of a true auteur with brilliantly diverse films like Trainspotting, Shallow Grave, Millions and 28 Days Later on his resume.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
After writing The Fully Monty in 1998, this UK-born screenwriter seemingly disappeared until 2008 when he wrote both Miss Pettigrew Lives For a Day and Slumdog. No surprise at all that he wins here, and he seems like a lock on Oscar night with David Hare’s The Reader as a distant challenger.

Original Screenplay winner Martin McDonagh with his In Bruges star Colin Farrell

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
Known for his plays The Pillowman and The Beauty Queen of Leenane, he actually won the Oscar for Best Short Live Action Film in 2006 with something called Six Shooter. London-born this is his first full-length feature film and he is both a BAFTA winner and an Academy Award nominee. McDonagh is unlikely to repeat on Oscar night with Dustin Lance Black, already the WGA winner, a strong favorite for Milk.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
A Boyle favorite who previously worked with him on 28 Days Later, Mantle was also DP on 2006’s fantastic The Last King of Scotland. He could be carried to an Oscar win riding the crest of a Slumdog tidal wave, or Wally Pfister could snag the award for his work on The Dark Knight (there could be a reverse backlash at the Academy Awards with voters rallying around TDK because of the Best Picture snub). The tag-team of two-time Oscar winner Chris Menges and eight-time nominee Roger Deakins are also a threat for their work on The Reader.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Probably the right choice here. It’s a 160-minute movie covering decades so getting the look right must have been a daunting task.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Again this is right on. In fact, you could argue that the whole movie is predicated on the visual effects. Seamlessly placing Brad Pitt’s face on another body without the strings showing? If the FX people don’t pull this off, Fincher has no movie.

BEST SOUND: Slumdog Millionaire
On Oscar night, this category will either belong to Slumdog in a sweep or The Dark Knight.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The obvious choice for the BAFTA Awards and the Oscars.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Michael O’Connor, The Duchess
Big gigantic dresses. That’s what I saw when I watched The Duchess. Generally speaking, that’s what wins in this category.

Composer A.R. Rahman wins the BAFTA and may become the first Indian to win an Academy Award

BEST MUSIC: A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
In my mind, this is the right choice. There has never been a mainstream film score that sounds remotely like what Rahman produced for Slumdog. The score is integral to the feel of the movie. In fact, it’s hard to imagine that it would be the same movie with a conventional score. Rahman is only the third Indian ever nominated for an Oscar, and this soundtrack does represent a fascinating bridge between traditional and modern Indian music and the Western sound we all know.

BEST ANIMATED FILM: WALL-E
Yes, Waltz With Bashir is unique – an animated, foreign language documentary, but WALL-E is a special, special movie, and Andrew Stanton deserves every award that comes along. The Chaplinesque quality of the first act makes it, for my money, one of the best animated movies of the modern era.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: I’ve Loved You So Long
This was easily my favorite foreign language film of 2008. The arcane rules governing Best Foreign Language Film excluse this Phillipe Claudel drama from Oscar contention, but put this in your Netflix cue when it becomes available. Kristen Scott Thomas delivers a haunting portrait of a woman with a secret, and, as it unravels in the hands of her empathetic sister (played by the remarkable Elsa Zylberstein), her burden and suffering are heartbreaking.

BEST BRITISH FILM: Man on Wire
Slumdog was nominated here, but the BAFTA tradition is to recognize a smaller film, excluded from the Best Picture race. I am one of the few people that didn’t fall in love with this James Marsh doc about wire-walker Phillippe Petit. Since the Brits have no Best Documentary Feature category, this was their one chance to recognize Marsh. Man On Wire is the prohibitive Oscar favorite for Best Doc, and I may have to watch it again just to see if I missed something the first time around.

Noel Clarke, the surprise winner of the BAFTA Rising Star Award

ORANGE RISING STAR: Noel Clarke
This award is voted on by the British public, and Clarke is the star of the UK TV hit Doctor Who. Both Michael Cera (Juno, Superbad) and Rebecca Miller (Frost/Nixon, Vicky Cristina Barcelona) lost the fan vote but are likely to have longer and more notable careers than Clarke.

CARL FOREMAN AWARD: Steve McQueen, The Hunger
Tells the story of the last six weeks in the life of hunger striker Bobby Sands. Michael Fassbender, who also lost out on the Orange Rising Star Award to Clarke, portrays Sands, and the movie played for just one week in the US (I’m assuming for Oscar qualification). Hopefully IFC will give this some arthouse runs this year.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Early reviews are downright awful for Bride Wars (00% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night), but Kate Hudson is a likable personality whose sub-par rom-com Fool’s Gold opened to $21.5M last February. Add to the mix Anne Hathaway with $100M-grossing movies Get Smart ($130.3M cume) and The Devil Wears Prada ($124.7) on her recent resume, and you’ve got a picture that could win the weekend. Tracking is strong with Under 25’s, and the Mean Girls-style marketing improves the chances that Under 25 Males will allow themselves to be dragged along to see it.

I am anticipated that David Frankel’s Marley & Me (Fox) will make it a 1-2 Fox finish. Based on John Grogan’s beloved memoir, this lovable lab-turned-box office star should paw its way to  another $15.16M or so, down about 37% from New Year’s weekend.

Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino has platformed perfectly and looks particularly strong for its wide break. Its Definite Interest number in industry tracking approaches 50 and its First Choice is a couple of ticks below 20, but much of its appeal is older, and it has a strong R rating. I’m forecasting something in the mid-teens and a good solid 3rd place finish, although an upside surprise is certainly possible. It’s not inconceivable that Gran Torino could pull off an upset and win the weekend, but I would be surprised given that it is on 400 or so fewer screens than Bride Wars.

It’s January, which means that there is always room for a horror movie. This week’s supernatural potboiler is David S. Goyer’s The Unborn (Rogue/Universal), from the low budget horror specialists at Platinum Dunes (2003’s Texas Chainsaw Massacre and The Hitcher remake and The Invisible both in 2007). Tracking suggests that the response for this one will possibly be a rather muted $12.35M by Monday.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) and Bedtime Stories (Disney) will battle for the #5 spot, and I am giving Button the slight edge. Fincher’s epic, adapted from an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, is on an awards carpet ride from now through February, and hardcore movies fans will want to rush out and see Ben Button prior to Sunday night’s Golden Globes ceremony on NBC.

The other wide new release is Bill Duke’s Not Easily Broken (Sony) starring Morris Chestnut and Taraji P. Hemson. Awareness is low and with well fewer than 1,000 screens, the movie is unlikely to top $3.5M.

FINAL PREDICTED WEEKEND GROSSES FOR JANUARY 9-11
1. NEW – Bride Wars (Fox) – $19M
2. Marley & Me (Fox) – $15.16M
3. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $14.63M
4. NEW – The Unborn (Universal) – $12.35M
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $11.83M
6. Bedtime Stories (Disney) – $11.06M
7. Valkyrie (UA/MGM) – $9M
8. Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $8.9M
9. Seven Pounds (Sony) – $5.27M
10. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $3.7M
11. NEW – Not Easily Broken (Sony) – $3.43M
12. Doubt (Miramax) – $3.32M

SUNDAY MORNING: Dog lovers everywhere united to make Fox’s Marley & Me the #1 Christmas weekend movie with an expected $51.18M in the Thursday-thru-Sunday period for a Per Theatre Average of $14,888. Pre-opening industry tracking pointed to a clear win for Bedtime Stories (Disney), but it was the lovable lab who finished on top.

As an aside, all of us who read John Grogan’s extraordinarily well-written novel should have seen this coming. The book is a joy, and anyone who has a dog, or has ever had a dog, could easily identify with the struggles and pleasures of having a 4-legged member of the family.

The success of Marley slightly mitigates a disastrous year for Fox. Its year started out well enough riding the huge success of 2007 release Alvin & the Chipmunks into January ($70M of Alvin’s gross landed in this calendar year). The January 18 release of chick-flick 27 Dresses scored for Katherine Heigl ($76.8M in the US), then Jumper was a good solid February hit, topping $80M, followed by the wildly successful Horton Hears a Who ($154.5M domestic). Little did Fox know that when the Ashton Kutcher-Cameron Diaz comedy What Happens in Vegas played solidly to the tune of $80.2M domestic starting in May, it would be its last legit hit until Christmas’ Marley & Me. This is a huge, redemptive win for Fox, and its sentimental tear-jerker of a dog movie could near $100M domestic by Sunday.

There were 11 consecutive under-performing titles during the Fox drought of 2008, including expensive failures like mega-bombs Meet Dave ($11.8M domestic) and The X-Files: I Want to Believe ($20.9M cume). There were also misses like The Rocker ($6.4M cume),  City of Ember ($7.8M cume) and recent disappointments like Baz Luhrmann’s Australia (about $45M in the bank as its run winds down) and the critically-reviled The Day the Earth Stood Still, which picked up another $10.29M during the Christmas-thru-Sunday frame for a domestic cume of only $63M.

Despite the success of Marley, Fox will be #6 among the so-called “Big 6” studios in market share for the year. The winning studio , Warner Bros, essentially locked up the crown in late summer as The Dark Knight piled up meteoric grosses. As I have written in the past, the WB gang seemed destined to break the all-time single year record for domestic ticket sales, and now I can report that they have officially surpassed Sony’s 2006 record of $1.71 billion.

With the respectable hold for Jim Carrey’s Yes Man ($22.38M over 4 days for a 10-day cume of $49.8M), the continued success of Four Christmases (adding $7.29M for a new cume of $111.67M) and the excellent expansion of Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (with a $38K or so cume at 84 locations), I am projecting a total domestic box office take of $1.74 billion as of today.  That is a staggering number, and it wasn’t all due to the success of mega-hit The Dark Knight.

Warner Bros perfectly marketed and distributed Sex and the City after picking up the baton from New Line. They also maximized the gross for the previously 3D-geared Journey to the Center of the Earth, selling it as a solid traditional 2D experience and generating $100M. And, they turned a pedestrian holiday comedy, Four Christmases, into a $100M smash. Expect a jubilant press release from Warner Bros in the next few days.

There is great news for Paramount and David Fincher in this holiday season. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is a big hit. Based on an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, this spiritual tale starring Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett had only 2,988 playdates, but the screen count may be as high as 3,500 with Paramount securing multiple screens at many key locations for the 2 hour 48 minute epic. The film coaxed a magical $39.1M or so r the 4-day Christmas weekend.

Benjamin Button will do very steady business through awards season, and the spectacularly-reviewed film will likely have $70M-$80M in the bank by the end of next weekend.  It will continue to hold well through awards season with major nominations at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards. I strongly believe that this movie is headed for something in the $170M domestic range and reaching $200M is not out of the question.

Only 2 of the last 11 Best Picture winners have failed to break through the $100M barrier, including last year’s Coen Brothers thriller No Country For Old Men.

BEST PICTURE WINNERS
2008 – No Country For Old Men – $74.2M
2007 – The Departed – $132.3M
2006 – Crash – $54.5M
2005 – Million Dollar Baby – $100.5M
2004 – Lord of the Rings: Return of the King – $377M
2003 – Chicago – $170.6M
2002 – A Beautiful Mind – $170.7M
2001 – Gladiator – $187.7M
2000 – American Beauty – $130M
1999 – Shakespeare in Love – $100.3M
1998 – Titanic – $600.7M

Academy Awards voters, whether they admit it or not, love big blockbusters, and after last year’s terrible Oscar broadcast ratings, there will be a strong yet silent, push to recognize films that movie-goers all over the country have seen. Benjamin Button is now likely to fit the bill nicely. Wouldn’t an Oscar night showdown between The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and mega-hit The Dark Knight make for a spectacular Academy Awards storyline (although, there’s always a chance that Danny Boyle’s gutty, little indie Slumdog Millionaire could steal the big prize from the big budget studio blockbusters).

#3 Bedtime Stories, also starring Keri Russell, Guy Pearce and the irrepressible Russell Brand from Saving Sarah Marshall, has managed $38.6M in just 4 days. It’s a fine showing, although most experts (including yours truly) thought it would be the weekend’s big winner.. The opening for Sandler is slightly under expectations and slightly below par with his recent hits, although it’s hard to compare a Christmas 4-day opening with a traditional 3-day weekend start.

Technically, the 3-day weekend opening (Friday-thru-Sunday) for Bedtime Stories was $27.6M or so. Accepting that Christmas Day took a great deal of “steam” out of the picture, that number compares favorably to July’s You Don’t Mess With the Zohan ($38.53M opening – $100M cume) and 2007’s I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry ($34.23M opening – $120M cume). Given that Bedtime Stories skews much younger and has family appeal, it should demonstrate great “playability” could very well have $80M in the bank by the end of New Year’s weekend.

A strong 3-day weekend came on the heels of a monstrous Christmas Day as Marley & Me, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Bedtime Stories all out-grossed the previous Christmas Day opening champion Ali ($10.2M). In terms of all-time best performance on Christmas Day, opening or otherwise, the three 2008 holiday box office juggernauts finished as the #2, #6 and #10 of all time.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 CHRISTMAS DAY PERFORMANCES
1. Meet the Fockers – $19.5M
2. Marley & Me – $14.67M (estimate)
3. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King – $13.9M
4. National Treasure: Book of Secrets – $13.6M
5. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers – $12.3M
6. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – $12M (estimate)
7. Night at the Museum – $11.7M
8. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring – $11.5M
9. Cast Away – $10.9M
10. Bedtime Stories - $10.52M (estimate)

Tom Cruise’s Valkerie (MGM/UA) has out-performed industry expectations finishing 4th for both Christmas Day and the long weekend. The eye patch wearing Cruise seemed headed for another disaster with his Nazi epic, but it has finished the 4-day with just over $30M. You could have won some bar bets with studio execs if back in November you had wagered that this won would even crack $25M over the Christmas holiday. Holdover Yes Man (Warner Bros) rounds out the top 5 for the long holiday weekend.

The only other new wide opening is Frank Miller’s The Spirit (Lionsgate). No Sin City magic here as the movie has stumbled out of the gates with about $10.35M, and it is fading very quickly based on downright awful word-of-mouth.

Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) is officially a PTA monster. Opening on just 3 screens Friday, the Sam Mendes-directed drama grabbed over $22K per location on opening day, and it will finish the weekend with about a $64,133 PTA. Not only is that the best PTA of 2008 (topping Frost/Nixon’s number for December 5-7), it is the 29th-best 3-day PTA of all time.

It is very hard to say what the commercial prospects for this picture may be. It is brilliantly acted with perfectly modulated performances by Leo and Kate, a truly unique turn by New York stage actor Michael Shannon and certain-to-be-under-appreciated work from Oscar winner Kathy Bates. I would also like to single out Kathryn Hahn, who was brilliant in Broadway’s Tony-winning Boeing, Boeing. Something about neighbor Milly Campbell’s desperate “golly gee-ness” captures the era to perfection.

Bringing Richard Yates novel to the big screen was no small feat, and screenwriter Justin Haythe has winnowed the somewhat sprawling novel down to its most cinematic pieces. Haythe is a lock for a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination at the Oscars, and I would make Winslet the betting favorite for Best Actress for her work in Rev Road, but can the film break through in other categories?

DiCaprio has a strong shot at a Best Actor nod, battling with Richard Jenkins, Brad Pitt and Clint Eastwood for the final 2 spots (after Frank Langella, Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke). It’s uphill for Shannon in the Best Supporting Actor category with Heath Ledger, Robert Downey Jr. and Phillip Seymour Hoffman as locks. Slumdog Millionaire’s Dev Patel has picked up a great deal of momentum since his SAG Award nomination, he seems to have sewn up the 4th spot. That leaves one spot open for Josh Brolin from Milk, Ralph Fiennes for The Duchess, Eddie Marsan for Happy-Go-Lucky or, an extreme longshot, Tom Cruise for Tropic Thunder. At the moment, I am leaning toward Brolin who will also get credit for his work in W..

Gran Torino has expanded very well to 84 locations and quite a few multiple screen situations for a PTA of just over $38K. There is clearly some commercial viability here as this love it or hate it movie goes wider in January.The big question remains. Will Oscar voters nominate Eastwood for Best Actor for his snarling, racist Walt Kowalski performance? In my estimation, his performance is the weakest of the contenders, but viewed in the context of his career, it feels like a nice culmination of his acting work.

It is surprising how softly Frost/Nixon (Universal) is playing at 205 locations. It generated a $9,473 PTA, which is disappointing. This is a great film with a tour de force performance by Frank Langella as President Richard M. Nixon. It may be that the movie-going public isn’t interested in reliving the Watergate nightmare, especially when everyone has a general mistrust of government after the Bush years. Movies can be an escape from a tough economy, government corruption and political scandal. Thus, films like Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button and Marley & Me are more attractive film destinations.

A lack of commercial success will not keep Langella out of the Best Actor category, but Ron Howard’s movie could be potentially handicapped in the Best Picture race if it doesn’t begin selling tickets at a better clip. Ben Button, Slumdog and The Dark Knight are all legitimate hits, appropriate to their scale. I am penciling in Milk (Focus) as a likely Best Picture nominee leaving one slot set aside for Frost/Nixon. Mega-hit Wall-E (Disney) could sneak in instead. Or, if The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) expands better than Howard’s political biopic – Mickey Rourke’s comeback delivered almost $28K per location over the Christmas 4-day – maybe Darren Aronofsky will find his movie among the big 5. The same goes for the aforementioned Revolutionary Road. A Best Picture nod would be a game-changer for Dreamworks/Paramount, and the slow start for Frost/Nixon may have left the door open.

FINAL 4-DAY CHRISTMAS WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Marley & Me (Fox) – $51.67M, $14,849 PTA, $51.67M cume
2. NEW – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $39.1M, $13,086 PTA, $39.1M cume
3. NEW – Bedtime Stories (Disney) – $38.6M, $10,486PTA, $38.6M cume
4. NEW – Valkyrie (MGM/UA) – $30.4M, $11,214 PTA, $30.4M cume
5. Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $22.38M, $6,517 PTA, $49.8M cume
6. Seven Pounds (Sony) – $18.2M, $6,599 PTA, $38.86M cume
7. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $11.37M, $3,659 PTA, $28.07M cume
8. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $10.59M, $4,409 PTA, $63.4M cume
9. NEW – The Spirit (Lionsgate) – $10.35M, $4,126 PTA, $10.35M cume
10. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $7.29M, $2,904 PTA, $111.67M cume
11. Doubt (Miramax) – $7.1M, $5,604 PTA, $8.78M cume
12. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $5.81M, $9,417 PTA, $19.41M cume
13. Twilight (Summit) – $5.5M, $2,975 PTA, $167.06M
*Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $3.2M, $38,155 PTA, $4.28M cume
*Milk (Focus) – $2.32M, $7,481 PTA, $13.52M cume
*Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $1.94M, $9,473 PTA, $3.58M cume
*The Reader (Weinstein) – $847,000, $7,302 PTA, $1.23M cume
*The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $515,000, $28,611 PTA, $893,000 cume
*NEW – Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $192,400, $64,133 PTA, $192.400 cume
*NEW – Last Chance Harvey (Overture) – $132,000, $22,000 PTA, $132,000 cume
*NEW – Waltz with Bashir (Sony Classics) – $55,144, $11,029 PTA, $55,144 cume

FINALY 4-DAY CHRISTMAS WEEKEND PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) – 3 locations, $64,133 PTA
2. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – 84 locations, $38,155 PTA
3. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – 18 locations, $28,611 PTA
4. NEW – Last Chance Harvey (Overture) – 6 location, $22,000 PTA
5. NEW – Marley & Me (Fox) – 3,480 locations, $14,849 PTA
6. NEW – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – 2,988 locations, $13,086 PTA
7. NEW – Valkyrie (MGM/UA) – 2,711 locations, 11,075 PTA
8. NEW – Waltz with Bashir (Sony Classics) – 6 locations, $11,029 PTA
9. NEW – Bedtime Stories (Disney) – 3,681 locations, $10,486 PTA
10. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – 205 locations, $9,473 PTA
11. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – 614 locations, $9,471 PTA
12. Milk (Focus) – 311 locations, $7,481 PTA
13. The Reader (Weinstein) – 116 locations, $7,302 PTA
14. Seven Pounds (Sony) – 2,758 locations – $6,599 PTA
15. Yes Man (Warner Bros) – 3,434 locations, $6,517 PTA
16. Doubt (Miramax) – 1,267 locations, $5,450 PTA
17. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – 2,402 locations – $4,409 PTA
18. NEW – The Spirit (Lionsgate) – 2,509 locations – $4,126 PTA

Bad weather with several major storms, including one in the Northeast, are making this a challenging weekend to project. I have revised my the 3-day estimates I released last night to allow for films to enjoy slightly stronger Saturdays, but the general story is the same. Jim Carrey and Yes Man (Warner Bros) at #1, Will Smith and Seven Pounds (Sony) at #2 and Tale of Despereaux (Universal) at #3.

My major analysis piece I published Friday night still stands with the headlines being that Warner Bros now seems destined to cinch the all-time best one year domestic sales figure in studio history and Will Smith’s streak of consecutive $100M grossing movies will almost certainly end at 8 with his Gabriele Muccino-directed drama.

One major change is that Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) hasn’t expanded nearly as well as I originally projected. The almost certain Best Picture nominee increased to 589 locations this weekend and the result will be a likely 8th-place finish with about $2.94M and a PTA of $4,999 or so.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON REVISED EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $19.5M, $5,684 PTA, $19.5M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $16M, $5,806 PTA, $16M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $14.09M, $4,540 PTA, $14.09M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $8.97M, $2,522 PTA, $47.54M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $7.3M, $2,080 PTA, $99.72M cume
6. Twilight (Summit) – $5.1M, $1,706 PTA, $158.3M cume
7. Bolt (Disney) -$4.45M, $1,501 PTA, $95.2M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.94M, $4,999 PTA, $11.92M cume
9. Australia (Fox) – $2.15M, $975 PTA, $41.77M cume
10. Quantum of Solace (Sony) – $1.6M, $798 PTA, $172.4M cume
11. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.6M, $798 PTA, $172.42M cume
12. Milk (Focus) – $1.57M, $4,417 PTA, $10.25M cume
13. Nothing Like the Holidays (Overture) – $1.15M, $689 PTA, $5.77M cume

On the specialty front, Mickey Rourke is a box office attraction again. The one-time movie star was at his peak in the 1980’s with movie like Diner ($14M cume), The Pope of Greenwich Village ($6.8M cume), 9 1/2 Weeks ($6.7M cume) and Angel Heart ($17.1M cume) is riding the crest of an enormous comeback wave. His role in Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) has already earned him a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actor – Drama and Independent Spirit Award nomination for Best Male Lead and a SAG Award nomination for Best Male Actor, and now the film has scored a huge opening weekend Per Theatre Average.

The Wrestler opened on Wednesday at 4 locations managing an outstanding $11,732 PTA. The extraordinarily well-reviewed movie is headed for a 3-day of $210,900, which will translate to an estimated $53,438 per location. That marks the second-best PTA of the year, trailing only the $60,236 debut of Frost/Nixon (Universal) two weeks ago.

At #2 on the weekend PTA scoreboard is Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (Warner Bros), which is a bit of a disappointment registering an average of approximately $23,400 at each of its 19 playdates. As Eastwood has admitted, this may be his final on-screen performance, but when the Hollywood Foreign Press ignored him in its annual Golden Globe nominations and then the SAG Awards bypassed the screen legend as well in the Best Male Actor category, it likely damaged the movie’s ability to compete on a limited basis with other pictures with stronger awards resumes.

In my Friday Night Estimates story, I wrote that Gran Torino may be able to bank $5.4M by the end of the year. Even with an expansion to 70 locations on Christmas Day, the softer-than-expected Friday probably means that Clint’s “swan song” is more likely to be at $3.1M or so at the end of business of December 31. Regardless, I am still projecting that Warner Bros will likely break the all-time one-year record for domestic sales for a studio.

John Patrick Shanley’s Doubt, a film adaptation of his Tony and Pulitzer Prize winning play, will bank about $703,000 or so this weekend at 39 locations for a PTA of just over $18,000. That compares favorably to recent movies like Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics), which managed $16,500 per screen in its first expansion (27 playdates) and Frost/Nixon, which generated just over $16,000 per screen in week #2 (39 playdates). With Golden Globe and SAG Awards nominations for Meryl Streep, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams and Viola Davis, Doubt should continue to play well through the awards season.

Weinstein has elected to hold expansion for The Reader until Christmas Day, so the picture remains on 4 screens and appears headed for about $114,000 by Monday, down about 35% from its opening weekend at the same locations. That would give Stephen Daldry’s Oscar contender the fourth-best weekend PTA at a possible $14,240.

Ron Howard’s amazing Frost/Nixon picked up just 2 new locations this weekend as Universal prepares for a major Christmas Day expansion. Powered by SAG Awards nominations this week for Best Ensemble and Best Male Actor: Frank Langella, the film will add about $361,000 this weekend, down about 42%. That equates to an $8,805 PTA, #5 for the frame.

STEVE MASON’S EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – 4 locations – $53,438 PTA
2. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – 19 locations – $23,400 PTA
3. Doubt (Miramax) – 39 locations – $18,026 PTA
4. The Reader (Weinstein) – 8 locations – $14,240 PTA
5. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – 41 locations – $8,805 PTA
6. NEW – Seven Pounds – 2,785 locations – $5,806 PTA
7. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – 3,434 locations – $5,498 PTA
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – 589 locations – $4,999 PTA
9. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – 3,104 locations – $4,540 PTA
10. Milk (Focus) – 356 locations – $4,417 PTA