The brand new film adaptation of the classic graphic comic Watchmen is a hit of monstrous proportions on its opening weekend, but not everyone loves it. In fact, not only is there a prominent character named Rohrschach (played by Oscar nominee Jackie Earle Haley), the film itself is serving as a Rohrschach Test for critics, fanboys and the broader public.

The Zack Snyder-directed $120M epic started with $4.5M in Thursday midnight business which is outstanding. There was no way for Watchmen to approach the $18.5M midnight start for lat summer’s The Dark Knight. First off, it is March and not the middle of summer blockbuster season. Kids have school. People are working. These are not the lazy days of July when it is easier for many to see a movie at midnight on Thursday, and hit the office late on Friday. The other factor is the movie’s rating. This is an R-rated movie, not PG-13 like The Dark Knight.

Jackie Earle Haley, who played Kelly Leak in the original Bad News Bears, is wearing the Rorschach mask in Watchmen

The Thursday night start for Watchmen was 44% better than the $2.5M midnight shows for director Snyder’s last epic 300 (also rated R). It was also virtually double the $2.3M midnight start for November’s Quantum of Solace (PG-13). Those are much better comparables than The Dark Knight or say last year’s PG-13 rated Twilight, which grabbed a reported $7M midnight preview gross.

Watchmen was spectacular at the box office Friday, and, after consulting with multiple sources, I am projecting a staggering $25.2M (that does include midnight previews) for Friday. That is approximately the 32nd-best opening day in modern box office history, but it is the all-time #12 opening day for a non-sequel.

ALL-TIME TOP 15 OPENING DAYS FOR A NON-SEQUEL
1. Spider-Man – $39.4M
2. Twilight – $35.9M
3. Iron Man – $35.2M
4. Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone – $32.3M
5. The Simpsons Movie – $30.7M
6. I Am Legend – $30M
7. The Da Vinci Code – $28.6M
8. 300 - $28.1M
9. Transformers – $27.8M
10. Sex & The City – $26.7M
11. The Passion of the Christ – $26.5M
12. Watchmen – $25.2M (projected)
13. Planet of the Apes – $24.6M
14. Hulk – $24.2M
15. The Day After Tomorrow – $23.5M

When the numbers get this big, and the movie is this front-loaded, 3-day projections are problematic, and I am revising downward from the $62.5M I published Friday night (my final prediction on published Wednesday was $63M). It’s looking more like $57M as of Saturday morning. Running time is killing this movie. If the number holds, it would still give Watchmen the all-time #5 opening weekend for an R-rated movie, trailing only Matrix Reloaded, Passion of the Christ (which had better source material contrary to what fanboys may believe), Snyder’s 300 and Hannibal.

Still the all-time biggest opening for an R-rated movie

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR AN R-RATED MOVIE
1. The Matrix Reloaded – $91.7M
2. The Passion of the Christ – $83.8M
3. 300 – $70.8M
4. Hannibal – $58M
5. Watchmen – $57M (projected)
6. Sex & The City – $57M
7. 8 Mile – $51.2M
8. Wanted – $50.9M
9. The Matrix Revolutions – $48.5M
10. Troy – $46.8M

One interesting facet of this movie is the fact that three different major studios have a piece of the action. Warner Bros owns domestic distribution rights, Paramount has the foreign and Fox, which won a very public battle over the rights to the movie, is getting 5%-8.5% of gross participation that will be set by the film’s worldwide revenue success. That puts an awful lot of powerful Hollywood types on the same team, working to ensure Warchmen’s success.

Critics are divided about Watchmen as a movie. The movie has a 65% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but the most established critics – what Rotten Tomatoes classifies as the Cream of the Crop – has generated a lower 43% positive reviews. Here’s a sampling from writers that I know and like.

Joe Morgenstern of the Wall Street Journal –
“The reverence is inert, the violence noxious, the mythology murky, the tone grandiose, the texture glutinous. It’s an alternate version of The Incredibles minus the delight.”

Pete Hammond, Hollywood.com -
“A stunning, mind-bending, breathtaking densely-packed motion picture experience.”

David Poland, Movie City News -
“The problem with Watchmen is, in the end, that it is a bit of a big stiff bore for two acts with an improved, but mostly uninspired third act. Look at Watchmen from the back to the front. Do you care about what has happened to any of these characters, except Rorschach, by the time you leave the theater?”

Roger Ebert, Chicago Sun-Times -
“After the revelation of The Dark Knight here is Watchmen, another bold exercise in the liberation of the superhero movie. It’s a compelling visceral film.”

Watchmen author Alan Moore

Obviously, the reviews are all over the board. Although, there’s no question that the writer of the original Watchmen graphic novel, the enigmatic Alan Moore, hates the movie, it’s just as certain that he has not and will never see it. In fact, he put a curse on the whole project.

Watchmen director Zack Snyder

Director Zack Snyder signed on for a gig that proved too tough and too problematic for the likes of brilliant filmmakers like Terry Gilliam (The Fisher King, Twelve Monkeys), Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler, The Fountain) and Paul Greengrass (United 93, The Bourne Ultimatum). Perhaps Alan Moore is right. His book is “inherently unfilmable.” There’s no way to pack the dense details of the brilliant 1986 landmark into a movie – even when it’s 2 hours, 43 minutes long.

I am a huge fan of the graphic novel having read it in college. I deliberately didn’t re-read Watchmen in advance of the movie because I think it needs to be judged as its own individual piece of work. Snyder’s problem all along has been, “How do you make a movie that both satisfies hardcore fans and is accessible enough for people who have never even heard of Watchmen?”

For the time being, the spectacle, the buzz, the fanboy fervor and a pitch-perfect marketing campaign have set the stage for an historic 3-day opening. Once the mainstream audience discovers that Watchmen is more about ideas than it is about heroes with capes, it will be interesting to see how it holds up. For comparison’s sake, 300 fell 53% from its opening weekend of $70.8M, but the drop-off will almost certainly be bigger here.

300 ended up at $210.6M domestic and $456M worldwide, but Watchmen is likely to fall short of those numbers. In fact, whereas 300 finished with a 2.97 multiple (2.97 X $70.8M = total domestic box), Watchmen is more likely to be in the 2.4-2.6 range. That would translate to a, still impressive, final US gross of $137M-$148M. Given that spring break is coming for high schoolers and college kids, I think the movie can reach the upper end of that range.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $25.2M, $6,979 PTA, $25.2M cume
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.5M, $1,162 PTA, $70.2M cume
3. Taken (Fox) – $2.3M, $763 PTA, $112.9M cume
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.05M, $709 PTA, $120.56M cume
5. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $1.3M, $532 PTA, $81.92M cume
6. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $1.1M, $430 PTA, $130.5M cume
7. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $1M, $437 PTA, $36.2M cume
8. Fired Up (Sony) – $920,000, $512 PTA, $11.68M cume
9. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) – $850,000, $666 PTA, $14.85M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $800,000, $408 PTA, $63.1M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $57M, $15,785 PTA, $57M cume
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $9M, $4,184 PTA, $76.7M cume
3. Taken (Fox) – $7.75M, $2,570 PTA, $118.04M cume
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $7.58M, $2,625 PTA, $126.1M cume
5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $4.5M, $1,759 PTA, $133.5M cume
6. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $4.05M, $1,659 PTA, $84.68M cume
7. Coraline (Focus) – $3.5M, $1,787 PTA, $66M cume
8. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) – $3.1M, $2,380 PTA, $17M cume
9. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $3M, $1,310 PTA, $38.5M cume
10. Fired Up (Sony) – $2.75M, $1,520 PTA, $13.5M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The precise number of 3-D screens is difficult to pinpoint. Last month, Lionsgate confirmed 1,033 Digital 3-D runs for the remake of My Bloody Valentine, and although I have not been able to confirm a hard number for Coraline (Focus), it was probably close to 1,100. Now, as the expensive $100K per screen digital conversion creeps along for exhibitors, Jonas Brothers could reach 1,200 3-D screens. Unlike Coraline, the new Disney concert movie will not be boosted by traditional 2-D 35MM playdates.

The Jonas Brothers along with Mom, Dad and baby brother Frank (sometimes called "the Bonus Jonas")

They have sold millions of records, packed them in at concerts across America, have a loyal fan base of screaming teenage girls, and they seem to be good kids. Their Dad is a former Assembly of God minister, and they were home-schooled by their folks. Famously, they wear purity rings, promising to remain virgins until they get married. When asked about the rings, 18-year-old Joe Jonas told Newsweek, “Our parents asked if we wanted to, and we were, like, ‘Yeah,’ so it’s awesome.”

As good practicing Evangelical Christian, these kids are tithing too. Jonas Brothers earned $12M in 2007, and they donated 10% to their Change for the Children Foundation, which offers support to other charities like St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital and the American Diabetes Association (Nick Jonas was diagnosed with Type 1 Diabetes in November of 2005).

Tracking shows that the audience for Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience will be almost exclusively Females Under 25 and their Moms, and this picture has a strong shot at a spectacular $25K per screen for a $30M opening weekend. Take that with a grain of salt because movie-after-movie has out-performed expectations this year.

Last week’s #1 movie Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) is in for a 60% drop from its meteoric start. The latest from Tyler Perry Studios will possibly add another $16.2M for a second place finish. Academy Award winner Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) will sing Jai Ho as it pops to third place, up as much as 14% from Oscar weekend. The target for Danny Boyle’s gutty, little Best Picture winner is $9.5M, which would push the $14M movie to almost $113M in the US.

Luc Besson’s Taken (Fox) will crash through the $100M barrier on Friday and seems destined for #4 with about $7.25M, which would push this French action import to $105M domestic to go along with the $70M achieved in foreign markets. Meanwhile, the Jonas Brothers have stolen virtually all of the 3-D screens from Coraline (Focus). Henry Selick’s spectacular stop-action animation instant classic will tumble a possible 50% to about $6M (a far cry from the more friendly 12% and 22% drops from the last two weekends). Still if my number hits, Coraline will have a new domestic cume of almost $62M compared to its budget of $60M.
The other new wide release is Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li, which Fox has pared down to about 1,000 playdates, is a non-starter. According to pre-release industry tracking the video game adaptation seems headed for a sub-$5M start.

FINAL PREDICTED GROSSES FOR FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 1
1. NEW – Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience (Disney) – $30M
2. Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $16.2M
3. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $9.5M
4. Taken (Fox) -$7.25M
5. Coraline (Focus) – $6M
6. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $5.1M
7. Friday The Thirteenth (Warner Bros) – $4.35M
8. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $4.3M
9. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $4.2M
10. NEW – Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li (Fox) – $4M
11. Fired Up (Sony) – $2.8M
12. The International (Sony) – $2.75M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) is the odds-on Best Picture winner, and it expanded to about 600 additional playdates this weekend for a total screen count of 2,224. The other four contenders for Hollywood’s biggest prize, however, are on a combined 2,508 screens. That means that they are essentially done with their theatrical engagements in the US (barring a truly shocking upset). Even if you wanted to see the other four nominees, you might have trouble finding them at your local multiplex – especially if you live outside a major city.

The United States has approximately 40,000 individual movie screens. Only 11% of them are showing a Best Picture nominee this weekend. That speaks to how decidedly unpopular these movies are. For comparison in 1998, there were about 34,000 screens in the US, and on Oscar weekend 7,586 of them had a Best Picture nominee showing. That’s 22% of all American screens showing a Best Picture contender.

Here is how the Oscar weekend screen counts for 1998 and this year stack up.

1998
Titanic – 3,169 screens
Good Will Hunting – 1,805 screens
As Good As It Gets – 1,604 screens
L.A. Confidential – 723 screens
The Full Monty – 285 screens

2009
Slumdog Millionaire – 2,244 screens
The Reader – 962 screens
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 754 screens
Milk – 411 screens
Frost/Nixon – 381 screens

Slumdog Millionaire has moved from quirky underdog to beloved box office juggernaut. This weekend, Danny Boyle’s Mumbai masterpiece will close in on the magical $100M barrier.

OSCAR WEEKEND PERFORMANCE FOR BEST PICTURE NOMINEES

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
2,224 screens
$2.1M Friday
$7.5M 3-Day
$97.46M cume
$118M Projected Cume

THE READER
962 screens
$705,000 Friday
$2.53M 3-Day
$22.9M cume
$29M Projected Cume

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
754 screens
$320,000 Friday
$1.12M 3-Day
$124.1M cume
$129M Projected Cume

MILK
411 screens
$265,000 Friday
$928,000 3-Day
$28M cume
$34M Projected Cume

FROST/NIXON
381 screens
$494,000 Friday
$17.22M 3-Day
$21M Projected Cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The box office king....err....queen of Oscar weekend

Although I am not necessarily a fan of Tyler Perry movies, I am a Tyler Perry fan. He traveled the country for years doing live stage shows in order to fine-tune his act, and he identified an under-served audience – African Americans, and more specifically black, Christian women. Now he makes two movies a year, and he has two television series’ on TBS – House of Payne and Meet the Browns. He built a multi-million dollar studio in an under-served area in Atlanta, taking advantage of tax credits for building in a blighted neighborhood. Now he is building a mini-empire. He produces, writes, directs and stars in his projects, and he even helps to finance them.

Perry has proved that it is possible to reach out to an audience that Hollywood has generally ignored. He saw a demographic market, and now he knows how to hit that “sweet spot” over and over again. He is an unabashed capitalist and, although he may never win an Academy Award for this brand of movie, he is selling a lot of movie tickets. Madea Goes To Jail was not screened for critics, and it wouldn’t matter anyway. Here’s TP’s movie resume.

ALL-TIME TYLER PERRY OPENINGS
1. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail – $41.12M opening (studio estimate)
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Family Reunion – $30M opening – $63.25M cume
3. Diary of a Mad Black Woman – $21.9M opening – $50.6M cume
4. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married – $21.3M opening – $55.2M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns – $20.1M opening – $42M cume
6. Tyler Perry’s The Family That Preys – $17.3M opening – $37.1M cume
7. Tyler Perry’s Daddy’s Little Girls – $11.2M opening – $31.3M cume

As I was discussing the numbers with studio execs today, everyone was amazed. This is about Perry’s unique voice, but there’s something else happening. The first two months of 2009 have been filled with movies that have beaten industry expectations. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) with $31.8M in its first 3 days and almost $120M by Monday? Notorious (Fox Searchlight) comes out of nowhere to grab $23.4M over MLK weekend? A micro-budgeted French import like Taken (Fox) will pass $100M in the US? Clint Eastwood delivers his biggest wide opening weekend and top-grossing picture of his career with Gran Torino (Warner Bros)? The reboot of Friday The Thirteenth (Warner Bros) scares up an amazing $43.5M 4-day start? The movie business is incredibly healthy despite an uncertain economy. I continue to believe that Hollywood is recession-proof.

Even the bad movies are doing better-than-expected. For example, Sony’s low budget teen comedy Fired Up is a throw-away this weekend, and most of my regular sources had it opening in the $4M-$5M range. Instead, it grabbed a decent $2.3M on its opening day, and Sony says it reached $6M. It will likely finish ninth for the 3-day, but that’s so much better than it could have been.

Luc Besson’s Taken was second for the day at $3.43M, and will finish #32 for the weekend as well with about $11.4M according to Fox. That will give this Pierre Morel-directed action flick a head-turning $95.15M, and it should pass $100M this week.

The $60M Coraline (Focus), the spectacular 3-D film from Henry Selick, will wrap up the weekend at #3 with about $11M, down just 25%, after a $2.8M Friday (fourth for the day). This movie will have banked $53.4M by Monday, and, if you haven’t seen it yet, do yourself a favor and experience just how far 3-D has evolved from those cardboard glasses with the red and blue lenses.

The Flower Films rom-com He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) seems likely has nosed out the fast-fading Friday The Thirteenth for fourth-place. Based on the Greg Behrendt-Liz Tuccillo self-help book, the Ken Kwapis-directed chick-flick managed another $3M on Friday (#3 for the day), which has translated to $8.54M for the 3-day.

Friday The Thirteenth is drowning, and there's nothing Jason can do about it

Meanwhile, movie-goers showed up at Crystal Lake last weekend, but America’s teens have quickly lost interest. Friday The Thirteenth from director Marcus Nispel and Michael Bay’s Platinum Dunes fell to only about $2.8M in second Friday sales (the movie stunned with over $19M last Friday), and Jason has limped to just $7.82M. That is a drop of almost 81%, one of the ten biggest weekend-over-weekend tumbles in modern box office history.

Finally, Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight), which will almost certainly win the Academy Award for Best Picture on tonight, added 600 or so playdates Friday, and it picked up another $2.1M or so to start the weekend. Searchlight has handled this film perfectly, and it will finish the weekend with about $8M, which would put its domestic cume at about $98M when it collects Hollywood’s biggest prize. It will probably surpass $100M in the US as soon as Monday as it rides an Oscar wave.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $14.65M, $7,210 PTA, $14.65M cume
2. Taken (Fox) – $3.43M, $1,106 PTA, $87.18M cume
3. He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $3M, $984 PTA, $64.54M cume
4. Coraline (Focus) – $2.8M, $1,299 PTA, $45.13M cume
5. Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) – $2.75M, $1,299 PTA, $49.97M cume
6. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $2.4M, $957 PTA, $23M cume
7. NEW – Fired Up (Sony) – $2.3M, $1,271 PTA, $2.3M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.1M, $936 PTA, $92.06M cume
9. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $1.54M, $545 PTA, $115.92M cume
10. The International (Sony) – $1.42M, $604 PTA, $14M cume
11. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) – $1.1M, $414 PTA, $26.77M cume
12. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $1M, $493 PTA, $131.79M cume

STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $41.12M, $20,236 PTA, $41.12M cume
2. Taken (Fox) – $11.4M, $3,675 PTA, $95.15M cume
3. Coraline (Focus) – $11.03M, $5,119 PTA, $53.39M cume
4. He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $8.54M, $2,800 PTA, $70.08M cume
5. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $8.05M, $3,587 PTA, $98.02M cume
6. Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) – $7.82M, $2,520 PTA, $55M cume
7. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $7.01M, $2,800 PTA, $27.65M cume
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $7M, $2,469 PTA, $121.38M cume
9. NEW – Fired Up (Sony) – $6M, $3,315 PTA, $6M cume
10. The International (Sony) – $4.45M, $1,882 PTA, $17M cume
11. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) – $3.7M, $1,392 PTA, $29.37M cume
12. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $3.64M, $1,793 PTA, $134.43M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The entrepreneurial spirit is alive and well with Tyler Perry

At only 39, Perry is building an empire. He officially christened Tyler Perry Studios last October in Atlanta with a star-studded event. The multi-million dollar project is a sprawling 30-acre working production facility in southwestern Atlanta, and the opening night party featured appearances by legendary African American actors like Sidney Poitier, Cicely Tyson, Ruby Dee, Lou Gossett, Jr. and Will Smith.

Oscar winner Sidney Poitier attended the opening night gala of Tyler Perry Studios in Atlanta

The 81-year-old Poitier, who won a hard-fought battle for his place in Hollywood with brilliant performances in films like Blackboard Jungle, The Defiant Ones, Lilies of the Field and Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner, saw the importance of Perry’s achievement. “I’ve spent 56 years in this business, and tonight is the reward,” said the Oscar winner. “To see the people who have followed me and to see the success of the extent of this man is a real gift.”

Perry as Madea

Not only does he produce, write, direct and star in his own movies, he also helps to finance them. His second movie, Madea’s Family Reunion, was his biggest with a terrific $30M 3-day and over $63M domestic during its theatrical engagements. Like Diary of a Mad Black Woman, it featured Perry’s outrageous Madea character. But even his non-“fat-suit-in-drag” pictures have performed well.

ALL-TIME TYLER PERRY OPENINGS
1. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Family Reunion – $30M opening – $63.25M cume
2. Diary of a Mad Black Woman – $21.9M opening – $50.6M cume
3. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married – $21.3M opening – $55.2M cume
4. Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns – $20.1M opening – $42M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s The Family That Preys – $17.3M opening – $37.1M cume
6. Tyler Perry’s Daddy’s Little Girls – $11.2M opening – $31.3M cume

Who is Perry’s audience? “It’s about 50% Christian churchgoing. It depends on what part of the country I’m in,” the filmmaker tells the Hollywood Reporter. “If I’m in the Bible Belt it’s 90% churchgoing. If I’m up north in Newark it may be 30%, so it depends on where you are.” He fine-tuned his characters doing live stage shows around the country. “I used to adjust the shows to where I am. If I was in the Bible Belt I made it more Christian, God-themed. If I was up north I could get away with saying ‘ass’ a little more. I would say 75%-80% women, 10%-20% men and about 5% children. What I’ve learned is you treat the women right and they bring everybody else.”

Now in addition to his two TBS television series’ Meet the Browns and House of Payne, he unleashes his seventh movie for Lionsgate this weekend, marking the return of his most popular character in Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail. Industry tracking is remarkably unreliable when it comes to Perry’s movies and Hollywood execs like to look down their noses at him, but my prediction is for a very solid $23M opening, which would mark the second-best 3-day start of his career, and more than enough to win the weekend.

Holdover horror pic Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) will take a mighty tumble, down at least 60%, but it should still manage about $16.25M or so for its second weekend for Platinum Dunes. That will put Jason in second-place for Oscar weekend and give the slasher reboot a new cume of about $63M by Monday.

It will be a battle for third-place between rom-com He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) and Taken (Fox). Both movies will be in the $10.5M range with the Drew Barrymore-produced Not That Into You likely just shy of $72M domestic, meanwhile the action import from France starring Liam Neeson will probably top $93M, and the Luc Besson written and produced action flick should surpass $100M by the end of next week.

Henry Selick’s Coraline (Focus), a truly spectacular 3-D  experience from the genius behind Tim Burton’s Nightmare Before Christmas, will likely reach a very solid $9.6M for 3-days, blowing past $50M in domestic sales.

Sony has a low budget non-starter on its hands as Fired Up, a misguided comedy about two high school football jocks who join an all-girls’ cheer team, looks like a disaster in pre-opening tracking, and it will almost certainly be limited to about $5M or so.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR FEBRUARY 20-22
1. NEW – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $23M
2. Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) – $16.25M
3. He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $10.53M
4. Taken (Fox) – $10.44M
5. Coraline (Focus) – $9.6M
6. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $8.2M
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $6.1M
8. The International (Sony) – $5.8M
9. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $5M
10. NEW – Fired Up (Sony) – $4.9M
11. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) – $4M
12. Push (Summit) – $3.56M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.