If you think things are scary now, imagine how people felt when World War I or World War II started. Both of those wars led to massive alterations in the world as we knew it up till then. WWI ended the age of the aristocracy. Dukes, earls, czars, even kings fell by the wayside and their fortunes and lives were ruined. WWII shifted world power structures, ending the European dominance over the developing world. Colonies were abandoned and left to find their independence. The US became a superpower after living in the shadow of Europe for so long.

But this site isn’t dedicated to geopolitics. It’s dedicated to the Big H. And that’s the subject of today’s discussion. The end of Hollywood as we know it. It’s already begun.

Entertainment is about to undergo a radical shift from old media to new media. And the rules of the game will be changed forever.

In the early days of Hollywood they had the studio system. If you worked there, you were beholden to whoever held your contract. They’d give you work, but you had to do what they said. They would hand you a project and you were forced to do it. Or you might lose your deal and you’d be lucky if anyone would hire you. The creative person in the old system may have worked more, but they had less freedom. Working for the old system was kind of like being a citizen of a Communist dictatorship. The studios controlled the press and the behavior of their stars as much as they could. They had a tight control over everything.

But that system couldn’t last. The costs of running a studio like a company town were too exorbitant. The public was also getting tired of the artifice of back lots and stages. They wanted more realism. So, with the price of land being so high, the studios sold off a lot of their lot space and compressed their operations. Actors and writers were let go of their contracts and were free to work wherever they could find it. That’s the system we have now. But even though artists are more free, there is still the game to be contended with. There is still a kind of invisible hand over it all that sometimes feels like Big Brother is watching. You dare not offend the powers that be.

In my last piece I talked about how diversification of TV content has led to a zillion channels. But the business model of advertising paying for shows is hitting some roadblocks. That’s affecting the bottom line. TV viewership, especially on the networks, is down. It’s caused a tightening of belts everywhere.

Internet usage is way up. More kids are going online than watching TV. You can download entertainment online. If you missed a show, it’s probably on the Net. Download it and watch it at your leisure for free. Movies are being pirated before they’re released in the theaters. The studios are fighting the pirates, just as the music companies fought the file sharers. But file sharing has only increased. Like Prohibition, laws banning things do not stop people from wanting them. Where there’s a demand, there’s a provider.

The studios fought the VCR in the early 80s. When VCRs first came out, you couldn’t buy a movie. You could only rent them. And they sued people for taping shows off the air. Look how well that worked out.

The studios eventually got smart and decided to go with the flow. And they made untold billions in revenue from the home video market.

Eventually they’ll figure out how to co-opt file sharing and downloads. They’re already trying different business models. When they’ve solved the puzzle of how to make money off it, they will reap more billions.

The DVD will go the way of the tape as everyone stores their films digitally as a file. The cost of storage is getting absurdly cheap and the devices themselves are getting more powerful all the time. You can buy a terabyte drive at some places for $100. And the hard drive is also becoming obsolete as we shift to “solid state” memory cards. Memory chips that can store vast amounts of information on things like the memory sticks you may use with your computer. These are approaching the terabyte range. And they’re extremely cheap. In no time we’ll be dealing with picobyte storage, which is a thousand terabytes. A terabyte is a thousand gigabytes. You get the picture. It’s plenty.

You can now load shows, movies, and large amounts of music on iPods. In fact, many cellphones can do that now. But it gets better.

The technologies coming out in the very near future will merge your computer, cell phone, and television all into a tiny device no bigger than a pen. They already have prototypes of this technology in labs. And don’t worry about the size of the video screen. They’ll have tiny projectors that can do HD quality on any blank surface. Your computer of the future may resemble this prototype: a projected laser keyboard (already on sale) with a projected “screen” on which you can watch movies, shows or play games.

You’ve already seen commercials for the iPhone or those BlackBerries with similar features. They are just the beginning of a trend.

They now have “e-paper” which is paper thin monitors that can be rolled up. E-paper is cheap to manufacture and will replace signs, billboards, newspapers and most other printed matter. You can read a book, a comic, or a newspaper, and change the page or even enlarge the view. Sony already has flexible, paper-thin color monitors. Supermarket price signs will be animated e-paper. Their message will be updated from the central office. Signs at bus stops or in stores will react to you as you pass them by, flashing ads tailored to your buying habits.

The cost of printing has held a lot of authors back from self-publishing. But it will cost you nothing to be published in the future. Just as it costs nothing to publish your work online now. A comics creator can get their books out on downloadable e-comics and charge whatever they want for them. A book author will no longer have to go through publishing houses to get distribution. New markets will be created online to allow people to get their work out. It’s already happening.

As for Hollywood, their lock on distribution is being eroded by the Internet. Right now they’re still an exclusive club, so they can afford to be snobs. If they don’t want to let you in for some reason, they can keep you on the other side of the red velvet rope. But those days are coming to an end, because competition is coming from foreign markets and soon from other markets in the U.S.

New markets mean new attitudes. The culture in L.A. and N.Y is not the culture of the South or the heartland. And you’ll see entertainment coming from there, too.

The state of California is no longer a good place to do business. The politicians have made such a mess of things: the taxes, labor laws, cost of living have driven many to flee the state. The expense of shooting in California has also gotten out of hand. Productions are running away to other locales. New studios are being built in other states willing to offer better tax breaks. The monopoly that Hollywood once had on entertainment in the US is fading fast. It will accelerate as new companies will find ways into these emerging digital markets.

You see, you don’t need a studio to make movies anymore. Video cameras are getting cheaper and higher resolution all the time. Home studio editing software, as well as special effects software can turn any competent geek into a film whiz.

Right now, fans are making nicely produced episodes of their favorite TV shows for an online viewership. The production quality is about as good as a professional studio would make, even if the acting or writing often falls short. A good example is the excellent ‘Star Trek: Phase II’ series which often has original cast members acting in episodes (and original show writers doing the scripts). There are many movies like this being made on the Internet from filmmakers all over the world. It’s only a matter of time before some of these efforts become big money makers. And then you’ll see even further erosion of Hollywood’s power.

The unions, the agencies, the studios themselves, will probably be around for many years. Some will find a way to capitalize on new markets and thrive. But the power structure of the past will not survive the way it has. And that means more opportunities for people with a competitive vision.

For one thing, the way money flows from the consumer is going to change. Advertising will still be a revenue generator. And they probably still charge money to see a movie or listen to a song. But more and more we’re beginning to see the “open source” approach where products are disseminated for free and people are encouraged to pay what they want. In several recent cases, like the release of Radiohead’s In Rainbows album, it earned the band many millions of dollars by making their music available for “free” online.

Comedian Fred Allen had another great quote: “You can take all the sincerity in Hollywood and stuff it in a gnat’s navel and still have room for three caraway seeds and an agent’s heart.”

Hollywood is well known for its off screen characters. Its vicious producers who treat their staff worse than slaves. Its drug addled celebs who are always checking in and out of rehab. Its fake wannabes who tell you how wonderful you are while they hate you in their mind. It’s a place known for the carpet of eggshells its minions must tread lightly on. And even the most powerful can fall from grace if their company’s stock slides or a big picture bombs.

No one is really safe there. So fear is the true king of Hollywood. Or make that Emperor with a capital E.

In such a climate it’s not surprising that many there have extreme personalities and beliefs. They look to strange religions and philosophies to sooth their worried minds. It’s bad enough that most of us mortals only have to worry about our jobs and our health. In the ‘Logan’s Run‘ reality of La La Land, you’re “old” at 35 and a senior citizen north of 40. As ridiculous as that sounds.

And the place is noted for its lack of faith. While there are many religious people there, they don’t want to admit it unless it’s a religion that’s not part of any Christian orthodoxy. Can’t have that. Christians are seen to be equal to Islamist bombers, or worse, rednecks! Yes, this is a belief held by those who think Kaballah Water and E-Meters are the height of rational thought.

But not everyone in Hollywood is like you see in the tabloids. Many are working people whose craft just happens to be entertainment. They really aren’t that much different that the rest of America. After all, that’s where most of them came from.

For every loon, crank, deviate and strange-o, there are three or four decent, ordinary people there with a head on their shoulders. And many people there are like you and I, trying to get ahead in this crazy world and take care of their family.

Yet fear rules that town. And one of the greatest fears is being perceived as belonging to the wrong club. As Lionel Barrymore once put it: “Half the people in Hollywood are dying to be discovered and the other half are afraid they will be.”

You see, at one time Hollywood was largely made up of all kinds of people, of all sorts of political persuasions. But at some point after the 50s, that changed with the culture. People on the left took over most of the positions of power. And many of them felt they had to punish anyone who deviated from the approved script. Perhaps they felt they had to use the media to push their political views, as they felt conservatives had done to them. Perhaps they felt their perception of reality is the only one that matters and nothing else was acceptable.

If you wanted to get ahead, you had to play the game by their rules.

The end result is we’re pounded day in and day out with one cliche after another. The old cliches like the flighty woman and the black pimp were replaced by new ones, only even more trite. Policemen were only seen as good in the Hayes Code days, now they’re mostly seen as bad. Unless they have a hit TV show. And corporations are evil. And men are stupid. Women are all smart and capable. Minorities are almost never the bad guy. And villains are white guys unless they’re part of a multi-cultural gang with a delicate mix of minorities.

And if you don’t accept this view, or if you do something really insane like believe that America is an exceptional place which is a force for good in the world. Why, you better not let anyone hear you!

Think about it…what kind of place would make people feel ashamed of sticking up for their side in the war on terror? What kind of place would make it a social crime to support your government or want to express patriotic thoughts in a public forum?

Fortunately, while fear may rule Hollywood, it doesn’t scare everyone. People are coming out to say that it’s OK to be yourself. If Tom Cruise can defend L. Ron Hubbard’s “tech”, if Madonna can invest millions in “Kabbalah Centers”, if Stephen Soderbergh can make movie love to a murderous thug like Che Guevara, why can’t we say we think American is a mighty fine place. What’s the harm in that? Why is that “crazy” or “stupid?”

Many of the people sneering at “conservatives” fail to realize that most people, including “liberals”, even lefties, happen to like the United States. They may have their problems with it. Everyone does. We all have plenty of reason to complain about the state of things. But ultimately, there’s no where else most of us would want to live.

Notice that Michael Moore did not move to Canada or Cuba despite their “great health care”. Sean Penn may have visited Iraq when Saddam was in Power, and hobnobbed with Hugo Chavez, but he didn’t buy a house in their countries. Funny how the people who claim to have so many issues with the states sure do like living here.

See! They do have something in common with conservatives.

In fact, many of the Hollywood crowd who liked to condemn President Bush or question our motives in Iraq are just saying that to look cool. To fit in with their crowd. In the 50s, it helped to be a smoker to fit in. In the 60s and 70s, it helped to be a druggie. The trend lately was be a lefty, America-basher. But with Bush out and Obama in, we can’t have that anymore. You can’t bash America with a black president. That wouldn’t be PC! Besides, he’s a Democrat.

Watch Hollywood change its tune. Meanwhile, those of us with a consistent point of view have something to say. To paraphrase Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction: “I’m not going to be IGNORED!!!”