Names like Ray Harryhausen, George Pal, Bernard Herrmann and H.G. Wells come to mind. As do those of Ken Toby, Less Tremayne, Paul Frees and Whit Bissell. Each of these names, plus thousands and thousands of others, can immediately conjure up a favorite film, a scene or even just a great line or look that impressed us as kids and perhaps continues to do so.

When I think about those elements that I love in my favorite sci-fi monster movies, my mind can easily dwell for hours on the creatures themselves, the settings, the art direction, the machinery and technology and everything in between. I never grow tired of that stuff. But I also love, with equal passion the characters that people the story. They are really what it’s all about. So, indulge me as I invite you to take a little trip through my memory, recalling some character moments that stand out for me in the B genre of scifi monster movies.

The Thing from Another World

This is without a doubt one of my all-time favorite movies, of any genre. There is so much great about The Thing, that I feel it should be used as a template of what to do right in making movies.

Every character from Scotty the newsman to Tex the radioman to the scientists, including my own personal favorite Bob Cornthwaite’s unforgettable Dr. Carrington, is each wholly enjoyable and rich in believable detail, even if they lasted only seconds on screen.

My mind moves along as I recall this great film touching on some memorable moments. Some that come to mind are the constant problem solving by Dewey Martin joined with Captain Hendry’s humorous jabs on his subordinate’s expertise in all things resourceful. Newsman Scotty’s incessant, but enjoyable whining about getting his exclusive story out through the morass that is the military. Without Scotty, the viewer would have needed another in to the technical details of what happens. Scotty serves both as story chronicler and informer for the audience. When thermite is to be used to melt the ice, it’s Scotty who asks, for himself, but really for us,  “What will that thermite do?” And it’s Scotty who soon after chastises the men for botching the job. “That’s just dandy. Standard operating procedure.” Brilliant.

How about that great sound cue from the Tiomkin score when the men recreate the shape of what lies beneath in the ice? The overlapping, excited utterances, “It’s almost…” “Yeah, almost a perfect….” “It is.” “It’s round.” “We finally got one!”, “ We found a flying saucer!” is priceless.

Speaking of scoring cues, another that ranks right up there is that great cut to Gort suddenly appearing on the ramp after Klaatu is shot by a nervous soldier in The Day the Earth Stood Still. Still another that comes to mind is an accented William Conrad uttering the dreaded “Marabunta” in The Naked Jungle.  The cue itself practically brings Leinengen’s house down to the dirt. Yes, there really is nothing like a good sound cue to raise the blood pressure.

War of the Worlds

“This is amazing!” Gene Barry exclaims at his first glimpses of how the aliens are able to move about. His excitement is that of a boy launching his very first model rocket from the backyard. This amazing film is a bounty of excellence in sci-fi monster movie making. As Stan Winston said, it has just about every special effect in it. He was more than right. The characters on display make the awesome visual spectacle a personal and lasting one.

There’s a throwaway moment in the opening at the ranger watch tower where one ranger while phoning in the ‘meteor’ is distracted while the other subtly takes a peek as his partner’s cards. Great stuff. Les Tremayne’s slow and deliberate sipping from the (empty?) coffee cup directly after uttering his ominous “once they begin to move, no more news comes out of that area” has never failed to stir in me that familiar excitement when watching a monster movie on a Saturday afternoon. Sure his drinking is a bit unnatural – his ‘business’ a bit clunky, but who cares? It’s a great movie moment.

After the kindly Pastor is unmercifully smote by the alien’s heat ray after doing nothing more than just trying to say ‘hello’, the Marine Colonel’s ‘LET ‘EM HAVE IT!” order to his men, unleashing the statement that no being, alien or native is going to get away with that kind of stuff. Our hearts join in as every man, religious or not, strikes back with all he’s got at that unprovoked act.

Most if not all of the actors in these films can be seen and enjoyed in scores of other films as well. This, the B movie, was their bread and butter. But their prolific on-screen work had not only a monetary benefit to their careers, but it also had an emotional one for the audience. Their formidable repertoire of recurring and usually similar roles created a growing bank of emotion within us each time we saw them anew. It grew and grew. Actors we’d seen in television series or other films retained the decency and integrity they evoked each time and that we came to rely on. We’d see their name in the opening credits, or see their face on screen when they walked in the door or answered the phone and think… “Hey, that’s the captain from The Thing. Now here he is in The Beast from 20,000 Fathoms. Boy, am I glad to see him!” Or, “Isn’t this doctor in The Day the Earth Stood Still the same guy who played the reporter in Them! - the one who wants to interview the mother of the missing boys?” This linking of character and body of work helped forged a connection with the audience that is stronger than a block of KL 93.

Some people criticize B movies, calling them pure escapism. I say, so what? Isn’t all film pure escapism? Personally, I think that’s the highest compliment you could ever say about a film, that it’s pure escapism.  By the same token one of the worst things you could say is “that film is so much like real life!” Give me a break! Who wants that? As Ray Harryhausen said when remarking about the over reliance of CG in special effects, “you don’t want it to be too real.”

Another criticism of Bs often heard is that the performances are poor, cliched or just plain bad. Sure they are! Some of them, anyway. And that’s often why we love them. But some performances, some scenes, are not bad in the least, and I’d argue, are as moving, as powerful and as emotionally charged as anything else on screen or in print.

To this day, I cannot watch the scene in the sewer pipes at the end of Them! without pure emotion welling up inside me. When James Arness consoles a mortally wounded James Whitmore who in his last breathes lets him know that the boys he rescued got out and are in the tunnel, it’s just too much.

That moment and what leads up to it, chokes me up every time. Even writing about it now, I find I’m moved to the point where I have to take my fingers off the keyboard for a moment. That’s greatness. Aside from Greg Peck’s final stare at a departing Audrey, Montagu Love’s reading of Kipling to the three remaining and one gone,  or pretty much every darn thing that happens after Jimmy Stewart finds Zuzu’s petals, there aren’t many other film moments that can evoke such an immediate and powerful effect on me just from memory.

When James Arness continues on in the tunnels and is trapped behind fallen earth and timbers it doesn’t look good. With nothing more than the rounds left in his Thompson he is all alone to fight off the giant ants that are now attacking from all directions. But just as the creatures close in, beams of light and firepower from the other soldiers breaks through the splintered wood and fallen earth and saves him with dramatic punch. Powerful stuff, and I’m quite sure Steven Spielberg lifted it for a scene in Saving Private Ryan, of course without the ants.

It’s true. The Thing from Another World, War of the Worlds and Them! and so many others were meant as escapism, as ‘Drive-in fare, as they called it, when there were things like Drive-ins. But it’s undeniable to many of us that these films, that B movies contain moments that are special, very special for their genuine ability to move us and remain with us for a lifetime.

And that’s what movies are all about, Charlie Brown.

As a production company, Summit is responsible for some monster hits, including commercially and/or artistically successful films like Once (Oscar nominee for Best Picture), American Pie ($102..5M domestic), Memento (Oscar nominee for Best Original Screenplay: Chris Nolan), Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($186.3M domestic) and In the Valley of Ellah (Tommy Lee Jones nominated for Best Actor). But as a distributor, they got off to a slow start.

SUMMIT RELEASES
- in sequential order -
11/9/07 – P2 – $4M cume
2/29/08 – Penelope – $10M cume
3/14/08 – Never Back Down – $24.8M cume
8/15/08 – Fly Me To the Moon – $13.2M cume
10/17/08 – Sex Drive – $8.4M cume
11/21/08 – Twilight – $191.3M cume
2/6/09 – Push – $30.9M cume
3/20/09 – Knowing – $24.8M opening – $55M-$60M projected cume

As I wrote Friday, I think that word-of-mouth is weak for Knowing, but the movie held up pretty well over opening weekend. It is definitely helped by it’s PG-13 rating, its appeal to Males Under 25 (especially Under 17’s), and its similarity to Cage’s National Treasure franchise.

Meanwhile, I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) ticked up 8% on Saturday to about $6.8M, and it will have banked about $18M by Monday morning. That is on par with Paul Rudd’s Role Models ($19.1M opening) and Jason Segal’s Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($17.7M opening). I’m sticking with $65M-$70M as my projection for domestic box office for this very funny movie that happens to have a very good heart.

I really wonder about the R-rating for I Love You, Man. It is a very, very soft R. There is no nudity or sex (although there are references to oral sex in particular), and it doesn’t roll up a high count of F-bombs. It seems to me that the ratings board was hard on this one, and a PG-13 rating could have meant an additional $5M-$8M (at least) on opening weekend.

DUPLICITY is Julia Roberts' first feature lead since 2003's MONA LISA SMILE

The other new wide release is Duplicity (Universal), starring Julia Roberts and Clive Owen. This is a very smart, densely-plotted, stylish-looking movie for grown-ups. Writer/director Tony Gilroy is among the best screenwriters in town with all three Jason Bourne movies on his resume along with the legal thriller Michael Clayton, nominated for 7 Academy Awards.

With Females 25 Plus as its most important demo, the film got a big 27% Saturday bump to almost $6M. I saw the movie Saturday night, and it was about 60% women with lots of women in pairs and groups. That is a very good sign for future weeks since Females 25 Plus are never in a rush to see a movie on opening weekend. The audience I was in was mesmerized and laughed in all the right places, but overall, the CinemaScore exit survey was only a C. I still belive that, after a $14.4M third-place finish, Duplicity will get to the $45M-$50M range in the US.

Not strong enough to hold an audience for weekend #2 of RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN

Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) is not holding well at all, dipping to $13M for the weekend. A 46% second weekend drop spells an early end for the new one starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. It is just not especially well-liked, and Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks Animation) will destroy it next weekend.

Sorry Rohrschach, WATCHMEN is completely burned out

Finally, Watchmen (Warner Bros) suffered a second consecutive disastrous 3-day, down another 62% to $6.7M for a 17-day cume of $98M. Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s classic graphic novel is unlikely to reach much past $110M in the US, and with a soft foreign performance as well, it will struggle to reach any real profitability.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $24.81M, $7,447 PTA, $24.81M cume
2. NEW – I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $18M, $6,640 PTA, $18M cume
3. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $14.4M, $5,595 PTA, $14.4M cume
4. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $13M, $4,080 PTA, $44.71M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $6.72M, $1,916 PTA, $98M cume
6. The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.92M, $2,465 PTA, $24.04M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $4.4M, $1,654 PTA, $133.43M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.7M, $1,306 PTA, $137.2M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.51M, $1,368 PTA, $87.2M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.14M, $1,498 PTA, $72.8M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Will reviews and word-of-mouth catch up to KNOWING?

Reviews for Knowing, written and directed by Alex Proyas, the inventive filmmaker behind the visually striking 1998 film Dark City and the 2004 Will Smith mega-hit I, Robot, has received overwhelmingly negative reviews (25% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but thanks to Twitter, real-time movie-goer reactions spread like wildfire. Here are some Tweets I just grabbed off the social networking platform.

You can Follow me on Twitter@LAMase

Just saw the Knowing. How and why some movies get made is beyond me.

Nobody go see Knowing.

The Knowing was a great movie. BUT it made absolutely no sense, got kinda scary, and made me cry.. three times. Imagine Noah’s Ark in space.

Getting home from a lame movie. “Knowing” is better left unknown.

Just saw “Knowing” with Nicholas Cage – LOVED IT – don’t think many will though

Notice the last Tweet. That movie fan is actually already anticipating bad word-of-mouth. Maybe they saw Knowing with friends, and they were the only one who liked it, or maybe the general reaction in the theatre was negative. Here’s an even scarier Tweet.

I’m in the worst movie ever, Knowing. Horrible.

Think about this. Someone is sitting in the theatre on a Friday night, and, while the movie is still playing, they send out a terrible personal review. Studios used to be able to count on suckering people into theatres for a bad movie as long as they had a big star and some cool commercials. Now, because of texting, Twitter and even Facebook (which has switched to a more Twitter-like status report format), poor reviews from Friday ticket-buyers may depress box office on Saturday and Sunday.

You have to wonder who is giving Academy Award winner Nicolas Cage career advice. Look at the Rotten Tomatoes review scores for his last 10 movies.

ROTTEN TOMATOES REVIEW SCORES FOR THE LAST 10 NIC CAGE MOVIES
-live action lead roles -
Knowing – 25%
Bangkok Dangerous – 9%
Ghost Rider – 27%
National Treasure 2 – 32%
Next – 30%
The Wicker Man – 15%
World Trade Center – 70%
Lord of War – 61%
The Weather Man – 57%
National Treasure – 43%

Obviously, there is sometimes a huge disconnect between critical and commercial success. Ghost Rider and the National Treasure films were huge blockbuster hits, but The Wicker Man, Next, and Bangkok Dangerous were flat-out awful.

From Best Actor to WICKER MAN

Despite initial reactions, the family-friendly PG-13 rating and similarity to National Treasure will still sell some tickets in the next few weeks. The movie is likely headed to something in the $52-$60M range in the US, and it will likely perform fairly well overseas because of Cage’s drawing power.

Jason Segal (left) and Paul Rudd, the likable stars of John Hamburg's I LOVE YOU, MAN

At #2 for the day, and most likely for the 3-day, is John Hamburg’s I Love You, Man starring Paul Rudd and Jason Segal. Riding phenomenal reviews (81% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and huge buzz from its screening at the South By Southwest Conference and Festival, the R-rated comedy has opened to about $6.35M Friday, and I am projecting $18M for opening weekend.

Among the Twitteratti (tech slang for the early adopters of Twitter), I Love You, Man is already a word-of-mouth hit. Here are some sample Tweets.

go see I Love You Man, its HILARIOUS.

i love you, man is one of the funniest movies i have seen in a while.

Just saw I Love You, Man. Waaaaaay funnier than I expected. Oh god, it was good. Stay a little bit into the credits if you go.

Just saw “I love you, Man” it was awesome!

Just saw “I Love You Man.” Loved it! Haven’t laughed that hard in awhile!

I love I Love You, Man. I’m also in love with Rashida Jones.

“I Love You, Man” – while not lol hysterical, was pretty funny in parts (albeit raunchy) … overall, I enjoyed it … solid B or B+

We are in a sort of a Golden Age for raunchy R-rated comedy, and this movie is an above average example. Rudd, who made his name as a supporting player in Judd Apatow films like Anchorman and The 40-Year-Old Virgin, is on a roll. Fresh from the success of last year’s Role Models ($67.3M US), he is the protagonist here, playing a charming dork without a best friend to be the best man at his wedding. Enter Jason Segal from TV’s How I Met Your Mother, a guy who scored huge with last year’s sleeper hit Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($63.1M domestic). As Sydney Fife, Segal is the ideal Venice Beach bum talking about his “Man Cave” and idolizing the band Rush, which reached its pinnacle in the 70’s and 80’s.

Writer/director John Hamburg

Writer/director John Hamburg, who previously wrote the classic Meet the Parents, followed by Zoolander (a cult fave of many) and Meet the Fockers (a mega-hit with over $500M worldwide despite falling well short of the laughs in the original Meet the Parents), made his directorial debut with the forgettable Along Came Polly ($88M domestic), starring Ben Stiller and Jennifer Aniston.

Rashida Jones, the daughter of musical legend Quincy Jones and 1970's icon Peggy Lipton (THE MOD SQUAD), co-stars in I LOVE YOU, MAN

If you wouldn’t have shown me the credits for I Love You, Man, I would have assumed that comedy king Judd Apatow has something to do with this one, but his name is nowhere to be found. Hamburg has grabbed reliable Apatow players like Rudd and Segal (Apatow produced Forgetting Sarah Marshall and the short-lived TV series Undeclared, starring Segal), and created a pic that looks and feels like an Apatow movie.

In my mind, the so-called Golden Age of R-rated comedy began in the summer of 2005 with Wedding Crashers and The 40-Year-Old Virgin. Audiences have a real appetite for this niche, and, aside from Will Ferrell’s misguided hoops pic Semi-Pro, The Heartbreak Kid from the Farrelly Brothers and Weinstein Company’s 2008 Zack & Miri Make a Porno, the movies have delivered both critically and commercially.

THE TOP 15 GROSSING R-RATED COMEDIES FROM “THE GOLDEN AGE”
1. 7/15/05 – Wedding Crashers – $33.9M opening – $209.2M cume
2. 8/17/07 – Superbad – $33M opening – $121.4M cume
3. 7/25/08 – Step Brothers – $30.9M opening – $100.4M cume
4. 6/1/07 – Knocked Up – $30.7M opening – $148.8M cume
5. 11/3/06 – Borat – $26.4M opening – $128.5M cume
6. 8/13/08 – Tropic Thunder – $25.8M opening – $110.5M cume
7. 8/6/08 – Pineapple Express – $23.2M opening – $87.3M cume
8. 8/19/05 – The 40-Year-Old Virgin – $21.4M opening – $109.4M cume
9. 11/7/08 – Role Models – $19.1M opening – $67.3M cume
10. 4/18/08 – Forgetting Sarah Marshall – $17.7M opening – $63.1M cume
11. 2/29/08 – Semi-Pro – $15M opening – $33.5M cume
12. 10/5/07 – The Heartbreak Kid – $14M opening – $36.8M cume
13. 9/21/07 – Good Luck Chuck – $13.6M opening – $35M cume
14. 10/31/08 – Zack & Miri Make A Porno – $10M opening – $31.4M cume
15. 8/25/06 – Beerfest – $7M opening – $19.2M cume

The multiple – the number you multiply opening weekend by in order to reach the final domestic gross – will be high here. My early rough projection for gross domestic box office for I Love You, Man is something in the $67M-$75M range.

Tony Gilroy with his MICHAEL CLAYTON star George Clooney

The other wide release is Tony Gilroy’s Duplicity (Universal), starring Oscar winner Julia Roberts and Academy Awards nominee Clive Owen. Gilroy is directing for only the second-time after his Oscar nominated performance with Michael Clayton. He is a writer first, and, in addition to scripting the three Jason Bourne movies, he loves corporate paranoia (like in 1997’s over-the-top The Devil’s Advocate) and intricate plotting (as in 2000’s Proof of Life and Michael Clayton). Duplicity plays to his strengths.

Does she still have "it"?

Despite the presence of the rarely-seen Roberts, the film has failed to top industry expectations. Duplicty grabbed an estimated $4.7M on opening day and seems headed for about $14.86M and fourth-place by Monday. I have been told that Duplicity received a very soft C rating from opening day audiences surveyed by CinemaScore, but because 25 Plus Females don’t always rush right out to see a movie, this one could still get to $40M-$45M domestic, which would be respectable.

I had penciled in Disney’s Race To Witch Mountain, starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, for #3 with about $17M, but the movie is not holding well at all. Race managed only $3.8M on its second Friday, and I am targeting $14.63M for the weekend. That’s a 10-day cume of a rather soft $46.34M. The Dreamworks Animation 3-D spectacle Monsters Vs. Aliens will wipe it out next weekend.

It's past Doomsday for WATCHMEN

Rounding out the top five is Watchmen (Warner Bros), suffering another 62% drop. The Zack Snyder-directed graphic novel adaptation sold just $2M in tickets Friday, and the 3-day will be about $7M, and possibly less. On Monday, the movie’s domestic take will be at $97.81M, and Watchmen will look to fizzle to about $110M in the US.

PLEASE NOTE: I appreciate links to this column, but on some sites, people have been copying and pasting the whole column. It’s fine if some numbers are re-printed, but please link for the full story. Thanks!

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $8.95M, $2,686 PTA, $8.95M cume
2. NEW – I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $6.35M, $2,342 PTA, $6.35M cume
3. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $4.7M, $1,825 PTA, $4.7M cume
4. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $3.8M, $1,192 PTA, $35.51M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $2M, $577 PTA, $93.36M cume
6. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $1.97M, $820 PTA, $20.09M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $1.37M, $517 PTA, $130.41M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $800,000, $391 PTA, $135.3M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $795,000, $433 PTA, $85.49M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $630,000, $440 PTA, 71.34M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $23.27M, $6,984 PTA, $23.27M cume
2. NEW – I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $18M, $6,640 PTA, $18M cume
3. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $14.63M, $4,591 PTA, $46.34M cume
4. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $13.86M, $5,384 PTA, $13.86M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $6.48M, $1,846 PTA, $97.81M cume
6. The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.31M, $2,213 PTA, $23.44M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $4.4M, $1,654 PTA, $133.43M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.93M, $1,428 PTA, $137.44M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.74M, $1,495 PTA, $87.44M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.29M, $1,607 PTA, $73M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

In the spirit of March Madness, I’m calling for the upset. I Love You, Man may not actually be a Judd Apatow movie, but it sure does look like one in trailers and commercials. The movie reportedly “rocked the house” at the South By South West Festival last week, and the buzz is very positive. I am calling for $21.5M, which would be above industry expectations.

Robert DeNiro, hilarious in MEET THE PARENTS

Writer/director John Hamburg is at the helm with the likable Rudd and Segal in tow. He previously wrote Meet the Parents (brilliant) and its sequel Meet the Fockers (a lot less brilliant). He also wrote the cult hit Zoolander, which I hated, but has a loyal core of fans.

Meanwhile, tracking suggests that Knowing will open strongly. The reviews are generally negative (21% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but Roger Ebert of the Chicago Sun-Times has published a rave, saying that “Knowing is among the best science-fiction films I’ve seen — frightening, suspenseful, intelligent and, when it needs to be, rather awesome.”

Director Alex Proyas established himself as someone to watch with the striking visuals in 1998’s Dark City, and he followed with the commercially successful Will Smith vehicle I, Robot ($144.8M domestic) in 2004. But It’s been 14 long years since Nicolas Cage won his Academy Award for Best Actor, and he’s made a lot of bad movies since then. In fact, you could argue that nobody makes more bad movies than Cage. Captain Corelli’s Mandolin, Windtalkers, The Weather Man, The Wicker Man, Next and last fall’s Bangkok Dangerous were all commercial failures and critical disasters. Still, it’s hard to argue with the success of 2007’s Ghost Rider ($115.8M in the US) or the $800M worldwide box office generated by the National Treasure franchise.

Knowing looks an awful lot like National Treasure, and with Cage on familiar turf, the picture is likely to click. Industry expectations are that it will win the weekend, but I’m, calling for a #2 finish. I expect the movie to bank a possible $20.25M by Monday.

The third new wide release is Duplicity (Universal), which is running at 59% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. Director Tony Gilroy’s last movie was Michael Clayton, a 7-time Oscar nominee, and I was a huge fan of that George Clooney legal mystery-thriller. There is certainly room in the marketplace for a smart, grown-up movie right now, but whenever you have a film with 25 Plus appeal, the reality is that the audience doesn’t always show up on opening weekend.

The last major studio film with Julia Roberts as the clear lead was 2003’s Mona Lisa Smile ($11.5M opening – $63.8M). Here, she is re-teamed with Closer co-star Clive Owen, who received an Oscar nomination for his work in that dark Mike Nichols-directed relationship drama.

Oscar winner Julia Roberts with husband Danny Moder & kids with (faces blurred)

Is she still a movie star? I say the answer is yes, but her ingénue days are over. With Duplicity, Gilroy has crafted a sort of Mr. & Mrs. Smith with corporate espionage replacing gunplay, and this is exactly the kind of movie Roberts should be making. I am targeting $14.5M for opening weekend, which will likely be enough for a #4 finish, behind Disney’s family-themed Race To Witch Mountain. The latest starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson could dip only 30% to anout $17.1M.

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 20-22
1. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $21.5M
2. Knowing (Summit) – $20.25M
3. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $17.1M
4. Duplicity (Universal) – $14.5M
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $9.6M
6. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $6.35M
7. Taken (Fox) – $5.1M
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $3.8M
9. Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $3.45M
10. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $2.35M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

TOP 10 SATURDAY GROSSES IN 2009
1. March 7 – Watchmen – $18.3M
2. February 21 – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail – $16.6M
3. February 14 – Friday the Thirteenth – $14.3M
4. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $13.2M
5. January 10 – Gran Torino – $12.1M
6. January 31 – Taken – $11.65M
7. March 14 - Race To Witch Mountain – $11M (estimated)
8. February 7 – He’s Just Not That Into You – $10.9M
9. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $10M
10. January 17 – Gran Torino – $10M

The last family film that teamed Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Disney was 2007’s The Game Plan. That film opened with $23M and finished with a $90.6M domestic take. That’s a 3.93 multiple ($23M X 3.93 multiple = $90.6M). But, after opening on September 28, 2007, that movie had 5 full weeks without any other significant family films in the market (Bee Movie from Dreamworks was released on November 2). Race To Witch Mountain, however, will face a minor challenger next weekend with Summit’s Knowing, starring Nicolas Cage, and then Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks) will be a box office buzzsaw starting March 27. Because of the competition, the Race is likely to finish with $80M-$85M domestic.

Meanwhile the Saturday-to-Saturday drop for Watchmen (Warner Bros) was less steep than anticipated. On opening weekend, Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s classic graphic novel generated $18.3M on Saturday, and the movie was down 58% to about $7.7M yesterday. The final weekend take will still be a disappointing $18.07M, down 67%, but here’s a positive spin. If the opening weekend Thursday midnight business of $4.5M is deducting from last weekend’s $55.2M haul, the drop is a more respectable 64%.

The movie is being supported now by second-time (and even third-time) ticket purchases by hardcore fanboys, but ultimately, the picture will likely finish in The $100M-$110M range, which is a disappointment. Watchmen is a disaster in international markets, and although it may still break even or reach marginal profitability when ancillary rights are factored in – home video, cable, syndication, video games – it’s hard to imagine any sort of sequel. You could argue that the movie is “sequel-proof” anyway, although a Minutemen prequel would be a possibility.

The Last House On the Left (Rogue) is a strong #3 for the weekend. The R-rated remake of Wes Craven’s 1972 twisted classic played out as horror films tend to do – down 5% from Friday-to-Saturday to about $5.3M. LA Times blogger Patrick Goldstein raises an interesting point, suggesting that Last House may have merited an NC-17 rating instead of an R because of a brutal rape scene. James Berardinelli from Reelviews sums up the way Goldstein feels.

This is an uncompromising film. It is unapologetically violent, to the point where those who are upset by screen brutality will have a tough time sitting through it. It features one of the most upsetting rape scenes committed to film. The MPAA’s decision to award an R to The Last House on the Left is yet another example of how flawed the U.S. classification system is. If anything is deserving of an NC-17 for adults-only content, this is it. The violence is not cartoonish or in any way sanitized; it is grim and gut-wrenching. Nothing is spared. Consider, for example, a scene featuring a hand and an in-sink garbage disposal. There’s no need to use your imagination regarding what happens – the movie shows it in bloody detail.

This is the kind of movie that I just cannot pay to see. I like great horror films like The Shining, Carrie, Rosemary’s Baby, George Romero’s Night of the Living Dead (and Zack Snyder’s more recent remake of Dawn of the Dead), Silence of the Lambs, Scream, The Exorcist and Halloween (the original from John Carpenter). I even appreciate the evil genius of the first Saw movie. But enough is enough. When it comes to brutal rape with my popcorn, I’ll take a pass every time. The movie should wrap up its domestic theatrical engagements with something in the $35M range – hopefully, not enough to encourage more of the same.

Everything else played out about the way I reported in my Friday Early Estimates story.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $25M, $7,844 PTA, $25M cume
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $18.07M, $5,004 PTA, $86M cume
3. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $14.65M, $6,105 PTA, $14.65M cume
4. Taken (Fox) – $6.65M, $2,327 PTA, $126.83M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $5.13M, $2,329 PTA, $83.2M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $5.02M, $1,949 PTA, $132.62M cume
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $3.1M, $1,359 PTA, $137.76M cume
8. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $2.9M, $1,537 PTA, $89M cume
9. Coraline (Focus) – $2.65M, $1,502 PTA, $69.14M cume
10. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $2.35M, $1,349 PTA, $2.35M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Meanwhile last weekend’s winner Watchmen staggered to a second Friday of only $5.4M or so, and I am projecting only $15.75M for the 3-day. That marks a 71% drop. Anything over $20M would have been acceptable, but the bottom has fallen out of this movie, and it will now struggle to reach $100M domestic. When the foreign and DVD are added, it may make a small profit, but it will likely be negligible. The superstitious might suggest that Watchmen writer Alan Moore’s alleged curse may be to blame, but the reality is that word-of-mouth has been more negative than for any movie in recent memory.

For Johnson, Race To Witch Mountain marks his all-time #3 opening and his second-best as a lead (trailing The Scorpion King).

ALL-TIME TOP 5 DWAYNE JOHNSON OPENINGS
- not counting his cameo in The Mummy Returns –
1. Get Smart – $38.6M opening
2. The Scorpion King – $36M opening
3. Race To Witch Mountain – $24.25M opening (projected)
4. Be Cool – $23.4M opening
5. The Game Plan – $22.95M opening

Lenny Montana as Luca Brasi in THE GODFATHER (he sleeps with the fishes)

The movie industry has a great tradition when it comes to professional wrestlers in feature films. Lenny Montana played the small but pivotal role of Luca Brasi in Francis Ford Coppola’s 1972 Best Picture winner The Godfather and Andre the Giant had a memorable turn in the classic The Princess Bride in 1987, but Johnson is easily the most bankable wrestler-turned-actor of all time.

ALL-TIME TOP 30 GROSSING MOVIES THAT FEATURE A PRO WRESTLER
- ranked by total domestic box office -
1. The Mummy Returns – Dwayne Johnson – $68.1M opening – $202M cume
2. The Longest Yard – Steve Austin, Goldberg, Kevin Nash, The Great Khali – $47.6M opening – $158.1M cume
3. X-Men – Tyler Mayne – $54.4M opening – $157.3M cume
4. The Godfather – Lenny Montana – $300K opening – $135M cume
5. Troy – Tyler Mayne – $46.8M opening – $133.4M cume
6. Get Smart – $38.6M opening – Dwayne Johnson – $130.3M cume
7. Rocky III – Hulk Hogan – $12.4M opening – $125M cume
8. The Scorpion King – Dwayne Johnson – $36M opening – $91M cume
9. The Game Plan – $22.95M opening – Dwayne Johnson – $90.6M cume
10. Predator – Jesse Ventura – $12M opening – $59.7M cume
11. Halloween (2007) – Tyler Mayne – $26.3M opening – $58.2M cume
12. Be Cool – $23.4M – Dwayne Johnson – opening – $56M cume
13. Blade: Trinity – Triple H – $16M opening – $52.4M cume
14. The Rundown – Dwayne Johnson – $18.5M opening – $47.7M cume
15. Walking Tall – Dwayne Johnson – $15.5M opening – $46.4M cume
16. Gridiron Gang – Dwayne Johnson – $14.4M opening – $38.4M cume
17. The Running Man – Jesse Ventura – $8.1M opening – $38.1M cume
18. The Punisher – Kevin Nash – $13.8M opening – $33.8M cume
19. The Princess Bride - Andre the Giant – $4.4M opening – $30.8M cume
20. Doom – Dwayne Johnson – $35.5M opening – $28.2M cume
21. Spy Hard – Hulk Hogan – $10.4M opening – $27M cume
22. Grindhouse – Vladimir Kozlov – $11.6M opening – $25M cume
23. The Marine – John Cena – $7.1M opening – $18.8M cume
24. No Holds Barred – Hulk Hogan – $5M opening – $16.1M cume
25. Over the Top – Terry Funk – $5.1M opening – $16M cume
26. See No Evil – Kane – $4.5M opening – $15M cume
27. The Comebacks – Stacey Keibler – $5.5M opening – $13.4M cume
28. They Live – Roddy Piper – $4.8M opening – $13M cume
29. The Condemned – Steve Austin – $3.8M opening – $7.3M cume
30. Ed Wood – George Steele – $1.9M opening – $5.9M cume

Andre the Giant in THE PRINCESS BRIDE

If Witch Mountain plays out like The Rock’s last family movie The Game Plan, the picture could reach $95M in the US.

Wes Craven’s The Last House On the Left (Universal), a remake of his own 1972 seminal classic, has met industry expectations with an opening day of $5.3M or so (actually ahead of Watchmen). The tightly-budgeted, R-rated genre pic will wrap up the weekend at #3 with a likely $14.3M or so.

Luc Besson’s mega-hit Taken (Fox) is headed for a dip of only 17% for an impressive $6.5M, good for fourth-place and a new cume of $126.68M. Tyler Perry’s biggest hit ever, Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate), will round out the weekend top five with about $5M pushing its domestic gross to $83M.

Don't worry if you miss MISS MARCH - It's coming to DVD very soon

The other wide release is Miss March (Fox Searchlight), which had straight-to-video written all over it. The movie managed only $750K from 1,742 playdates Friday, and it will crawl to a meager $2M 3-day, barely cracking the weekend top ten.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $6.8M, $2,134 PTA, $6.8M cume
2. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.5.M, $2,291 PTA, $5.5M cume
3. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $5.4M, $1,495 PTA, $73.33M cume
4. Taken (Fox) – $2M, $700 PTA, $122.18M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $1.45M, $658 PTA, $79.52M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $1.4M, $543 PTA, $129M cume
7. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $900,000, $476 PTA, $87M cume
8. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $890,000, $511 PTA, $890,000 cume
9. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $860,000, $377 PTA, $135.52M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $600,000, $339 PTA, $67.12M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $24.25M, $7,609 PTA, $24.25M cume
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $15.75M, $4,362 PTA, $83.68M cume
3. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $14.3M, $5,956 PTA, $14.3M cume
4. Taken (Fox) – $6.5M, $2,274 PTA, $126.68M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $5M, $2,271 PTA, $83.08M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $4.83M, $1,874 PTA, $132.43M cume
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $3.18M, $1,395PTA, $137.84M cume
8. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $2.88M, $1,524 PTA, $89M cume
9. Coraline (Focus) – $2.5M, $1,408 PTA, $69M cume
10. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $2.4M, $1,379 PTA, $2.4M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The Watchmen = Epic fail!

If you haven’t seen The Watchmen yet, I’d urge you to read the graphic novel first. Well, actually, I’d urge you to JUST read the GN. lol.

Watchmen.undecided,confused as superhero film with

very little superhero action.Convoluted story,but overall watchable. My opinion only

I was bored while watching Watchmen

Just got out of Watchmen…. Ouch, would spend the 9 quid on – can’t even find the humour, brain switched off 1 hour into the 3- BIG YAWN

Watchmen, three hours of my life I will never ever get back.

Watchmen was a horrible movie! We went today. My bf goes with me to chick flicks,so I go to”other”. THIS ONE WAS bbaaad! Yuk

Going to watch the watchmen so I can rip it to shreds later

Watchmen – way too much blood, way too many slaughtered people!

For everyone who says, “What’s the point of Twitter,” here’s a real-life application. I was able to watch the word-of-mouth take shape for Zack Snyder’s film adaptation of the classic Alan Moore graphic novel. When projecting box office, I use a multiple to arrive at a weekend estimate. After a $24.5M Friday, it would be fair to expect about a 2.5 multiple for about $61.25M ($24.5 X 2.5 = $61.25M). Instead, that strong Friday resulted in a much softer $55.2M, operating on a 2.25 multiple.

That means that in this new age of Twitter and Facebook and text messaging, word-of-mouth on a movie spreads like wildfire. If a film is bad or challenging or has a bad ending, potential moviegoers are going to know it before opening weekend is over. In fact, a negative reaction from Friday’s ticket buyers can mean fewer admissions on Saturday and Sunday.

As I have written before, I like this movie. Given the densely-plotted source material, Snyder has pulled off something amazing. This is the thinking man’s superhero movie, and the film cannot be enjoyed, or even tolerated, if you check your mind at the theatre door. Watchmen is about ideas. For me, it is a $120M art film that deconstructs the very idea of what a hero is. The film is cold, intellectual, uncompromising and not particularly hopeful. The Dark Knight, ultimately, is about how when everyday citizens are confronted by impossible choices, they do the right thing. In the nihilistic world of Watchmen, everything is gray, uncertain and relative. Anybody who showed up last weekend for a bucket of popcorn and some cheap CGI thrills probably left very disappointed.

Fortunately for Warner Bros (domestic distribution rights), Paramount (foreign distribution rights) and Fox (a profit participant thanks to litigation), the hardcore fans of the graphic novel seem to like the movie. Here are some Tweets from fanboys last Friday and Saturday.

Seeing watchmen again for the second time.

Watchmen, pretty damn good, really enjoyed it. Now to finish reading the graphic novel to get the details and depth of everything

experiencing the post-Watchmen glow.

I am dying to see Watchmen again, soooooooo good!

The big question in Hollywood is, “How much will Watchmen fall this weekend?” When the opening weekend 3-day is this big, even wildly successful movies like Iron Man and The Dark Knight tumble about 50%.

SAMPLING OF SECOND WEEKEND DROPS FOR 2008 BLOCKBUSTERS
Iron Man – down 48%
Hancock – down 49%
The Dark Knight – down 52%
Jumper – down 54%
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor – down 59%
Quantum of Solace – down 60%
The Incredible Hulk – down 60%
Wanted – down 61%
The Day the Earth Stood Still – down 68%
Cloverfield – down 68%
Hellboy II: The Golden Army – down 71%

My best guess is that the encore for Dr. Manhattan and pals will be in the $20M-$23M range, and, if I you pin me down to an exact prediction, I’ll go with $22.1M, which would mark a 60% decline. A 3-day take of less than $20M would be a huge disappointment.

If you happened to see this past weekend’s Saturday Night Live, you saw a tour de force from Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. His opening monologue, which turned into a Fosse-style musical number, was a piece of hilarious self-mockery, and he really got the President’s vocal cadence down for an Incredible Hulk spoof called The Rock Obama. Johnson has gone from pro wrestling superstar to versatile entertainer, and he’s also a full-fledged movie star.

In the fall of 2007, The Rock flexed his box office muscle with Disney’s The Game Plan. The family film featuring Johnson as a football star and playboy-turned-Dad, and, after a $23M opening frame, the movie went on to $90M domestic.

Now Disney is re-booting its popular Witch Mountain movies from the 1970’s – Escape to Witch Mountain in 1975 and Return from Witch Mountain in 1978 – with The Rock, Carla Gugino (Watchmen) and AnnaSophia Robb (Bridge To Terabithia). Tracking with the family crowd, including Moms 25 Plus, is very strong, and I am predicting $22.75M, possibly enough to score a surprise win over Watchmen.

Wes Craven’s R-rated remake of his 1972 classic The Last House On the Left (Universal) looks a bit stronger-than-expected. Despite no real star power, there is room in the marketplace for this kid of gruesome scarefest, and I think the movie could hit $18.2M by Monday morning, good for third place.

The other new wide release is Miss March (Fox Searchlight), a crass R-rated comedy with no star power. To me, the tracking looks very soft, and it looks like it will miss the top 5 altogether with just over $5M.

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 13-15
1. NEW – Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $22.75M
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $22.1M
3. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $18.2M
4. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail (Lionsgate) – $5.7M
5. Taken (Fox) – $5.23M
6. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $5.13M
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $5.07M
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $2.59M
9. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $2.08M
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.07M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

SUNDAY MORNING: Dog lovers everywhere united to make Fox’s Marley & Me the #1 Christmas weekend movie with an expected $51.18M in the Thursday-thru-Sunday period for a Per Theatre Average of $14,888. Pre-opening industry tracking pointed to a clear win for Bedtime Stories (Disney), but it was the lovable lab who finished on top.

As an aside, all of us who read John Grogan’s extraordinarily well-written novel should have seen this coming. The book is a joy, and anyone who has a dog, or has ever had a dog, could easily identify with the struggles and pleasures of having a 4-legged member of the family.

The success of Marley slightly mitigates a disastrous year for Fox. Its year started out well enough riding the huge success of 2007 release Alvin & the Chipmunks into January ($70M of Alvin’s gross landed in this calendar year). The January 18 release of chick-flick 27 Dresses scored for Katherine Heigl ($76.8M in the US), then Jumper was a good solid February hit, topping $80M, followed by the wildly successful Horton Hears a Who ($154.5M domestic). Little did Fox know that when the Ashton Kutcher-Cameron Diaz comedy What Happens in Vegas played solidly to the tune of $80.2M domestic starting in May, it would be its last legit hit until Christmas’ Marley & Me. This is a huge, redemptive win for Fox, and its sentimental tear-jerker of a dog movie could near $100M domestic by Sunday.

There were 11 consecutive under-performing titles during the Fox drought of 2008, including expensive failures like mega-bombs Meet Dave ($11.8M domestic) and The X-Files: I Want to Believe ($20.9M cume). There were also misses like The Rocker ($6.4M cume),  City of Ember ($7.8M cume) and recent disappointments like Baz Luhrmann’s Australia (about $45M in the bank as its run winds down) and the critically-reviled The Day the Earth Stood Still, which picked up another $10.29M during the Christmas-thru-Sunday frame for a domestic cume of only $63M.

Despite the success of Marley, Fox will be #6 among the so-called “Big 6” studios in market share for the year. The winning studio , Warner Bros, essentially locked up the crown in late summer as The Dark Knight piled up meteoric grosses. As I have written in the past, the WB gang seemed destined to break the all-time single year record for domestic ticket sales, and now I can report that they have officially surpassed Sony’s 2006 record of $1.71 billion.

With the respectable hold for Jim Carrey’s Yes Man ($22.38M over 4 days for a 10-day cume of $49.8M), the continued success of Four Christmases (adding $7.29M for a new cume of $111.67M) and the excellent expansion of Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (with a $38K or so cume at 84 locations), I am projecting a total domestic box office take of $1.74 billion as of today.  That is a staggering number, and it wasn’t all due to the success of mega-hit The Dark Knight.

Warner Bros perfectly marketed and distributed Sex and the City after picking up the baton from New Line. They also maximized the gross for the previously 3D-geared Journey to the Center of the Earth, selling it as a solid traditional 2D experience and generating $100M. And, they turned a pedestrian holiday comedy, Four Christmases, into a $100M smash. Expect a jubilant press release from Warner Bros in the next few days.

There is great news for Paramount and David Fincher in this holiday season. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is a big hit. Based on an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, this spiritual tale starring Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett had only 2,988 playdates, but the screen count may be as high as 3,500 with Paramount securing multiple screens at many key locations for the 2 hour 48 minute epic. The film coaxed a magical $39.1M or so r the 4-day Christmas weekend.

Benjamin Button will do very steady business through awards season, and the spectacularly-reviewed film will likely have $70M-$80M in the bank by the end of next weekend.  It will continue to hold well through awards season with major nominations at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards. I strongly believe that this movie is headed for something in the $170M domestic range and reaching $200M is not out of the question.

Only 2 of the last 11 Best Picture winners have failed to break through the $100M barrier, including last year’s Coen Brothers thriller No Country For Old Men.

BEST PICTURE WINNERS
2008 – No Country For Old Men – $74.2M
2007 – The Departed – $132.3M
2006 – Crash – $54.5M
2005 – Million Dollar Baby – $100.5M
2004 – Lord of the Rings: Return of the King – $377M
2003 – Chicago – $170.6M
2002 – A Beautiful Mind – $170.7M
2001 – Gladiator – $187.7M
2000 – American Beauty – $130M
1999 – Shakespeare in Love – $100.3M
1998 – Titanic – $600.7M

Academy Awards voters, whether they admit it or not, love big blockbusters, and after last year’s terrible Oscar broadcast ratings, there will be a strong yet silent, push to recognize films that movie-goers all over the country have seen. Benjamin Button is now likely to fit the bill nicely. Wouldn’t an Oscar night showdown between The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and mega-hit The Dark Knight make for a spectacular Academy Awards storyline (although, there’s always a chance that Danny Boyle’s gutty, little indie Slumdog Millionaire could steal the big prize from the big budget studio blockbusters).

#3 Bedtime Stories, also starring Keri Russell, Guy Pearce and the irrepressible Russell Brand from Saving Sarah Marshall, has managed $38.6M in just 4 days. It’s a fine showing, although most experts (including yours truly) thought it would be the weekend’s big winner.. The opening for Sandler is slightly under expectations and slightly below par with his recent hits, although it’s hard to compare a Christmas 4-day opening with a traditional 3-day weekend start.

Technically, the 3-day weekend opening (Friday-thru-Sunday) for Bedtime Stories was $27.6M or so. Accepting that Christmas Day took a great deal of “steam” out of the picture, that number compares favorably to July’s You Don’t Mess With the Zohan ($38.53M opening – $100M cume) and 2007’s I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry ($34.23M opening – $120M cume). Given that Bedtime Stories skews much younger and has family appeal, it should demonstrate great “playability” could very well have $80M in the bank by the end of New Year’s weekend.

A strong 3-day weekend came on the heels of a monstrous Christmas Day as Marley & Me, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Bedtime Stories all out-grossed the previous Christmas Day opening champion Ali ($10.2M). In terms of all-time best performance on Christmas Day, opening or otherwise, the three 2008 holiday box office juggernauts finished as the #2, #6 and #10 of all time.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 CHRISTMAS DAY PERFORMANCES
1. Meet the Fockers – $19.5M
2. Marley & Me – $14.67M (estimate)
3. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King – $13.9M
4. National Treasure: Book of Secrets – $13.6M
5. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers – $12.3M
6. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – $12M (estimate)
7. Night at the Museum – $11.7M
8. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring – $11.5M
9. Cast Away – $10.9M
10. Bedtime Stories - $10.52M (estimate)

Tom Cruise’s Valkerie (MGM/UA) has out-performed industry expectations finishing 4th for both Christmas Day and the long weekend. The eye patch wearing Cruise seemed headed for another disaster with his Nazi epic, but it has finished the 4-day with just over $30M. You could have won some bar bets with studio execs if back in November you had wagered that this won would even crack $25M over the Christmas holiday. Holdover Yes Man (Warner Bros) rounds out the top 5 for the long holiday weekend.

The only other new wide opening is Frank Miller’s The Spirit (Lionsgate). No Sin City magic here as the movie has stumbled out of the gates with about $10.35M, and it is fading very quickly based on downright awful word-of-mouth.

Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) is officially a PTA monster. Opening on just 3 screens Friday, the Sam Mendes-directed drama grabbed over $22K per location on opening day, and it will finish the weekend with about a $64,133 PTA. Not only is that the best PTA of 2008 (topping Frost/Nixon’s number for December 5-7), it is the 29th-best 3-day PTA of all time.

It is very hard to say what the commercial prospects for this picture may be. It is brilliantly acted with perfectly modulated performances by Leo and Kate, a truly unique turn by New York stage actor Michael Shannon and certain-to-be-under-appreciated work from Oscar winner Kathy Bates. I would also like to single out Kathryn Hahn, who was brilliant in Broadway’s Tony-winning Boeing, Boeing. Something about neighbor Milly Campbell’s desperate “golly gee-ness” captures the era to perfection.

Bringing Richard Yates novel to the big screen was no small feat, and screenwriter Justin Haythe has winnowed the somewhat sprawling novel down to its most cinematic pieces. Haythe is a lock for a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination at the Oscars, and I would make Winslet the betting favorite for Best Actress for her work in Rev Road, but can the film break through in other categories?

DiCaprio has a strong shot at a Best Actor nod, battling with Richard Jenkins, Brad Pitt and Clint Eastwood for the final 2 spots (after Frank Langella, Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke). It’s uphill for Shannon in the Best Supporting Actor category with Heath Ledger, Robert Downey Jr. and Phillip Seymour Hoffman as locks. Slumdog Millionaire’s Dev Patel has picked up a great deal of momentum since his SAG Award nomination, he seems to have sewn up the 4th spot. That leaves one spot open for Josh Brolin from Milk, Ralph Fiennes for The Duchess, Eddie Marsan for Happy-Go-Lucky or, an extreme longshot, Tom Cruise for Tropic Thunder. At the moment, I am leaning toward Brolin who will also get credit for his work in W..

Gran Torino has expanded very well to 84 locations and quite a few multiple screen situations for a PTA of just over $38K. There is clearly some commercial viability here as this love it or hate it movie goes wider in January.The big question remains. Will Oscar voters nominate Eastwood for Best Actor for his snarling, racist Walt Kowalski performance? In my estimation, his performance is the weakest of the contenders, but viewed in the context of his career, it feels like a nice culmination of his acting work.

It is surprising how softly Frost/Nixon (Universal) is playing at 205 locations. It generated a $9,473 PTA, which is disappointing. This is a great film with a tour de force performance by Frank Langella as President Richard M. Nixon. It may be that the movie-going public isn’t interested in reliving the Watergate nightmare, especially when everyone has a general mistrust of government after the Bush years. Movies can be an escape from a tough economy, government corruption and political scandal. Thus, films like Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button and Marley & Me are more attractive film destinations.

A lack of commercial success will not keep Langella out of the Best Actor category, but Ron Howard’s movie could be potentially handicapped in the Best Picture race if it doesn’t begin selling tickets at a better clip. Ben Button, Slumdog and The Dark Knight are all legitimate hits, appropriate to their scale. I am penciling in Milk (Focus) as a likely Best Picture nominee leaving one slot set aside for Frost/Nixon. Mega-hit Wall-E (Disney) could sneak in instead. Or, if The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) expands better than Howard’s political biopic – Mickey Rourke’s comeback delivered almost $28K per location over the Christmas 4-day – maybe Darren Aronofsky will find his movie among the big 5. The same goes for the aforementioned Revolutionary Road. A Best Picture nod would be a game-changer for Dreamworks/Paramount, and the slow start for Frost/Nixon may have left the door open.

FINAL 4-DAY CHRISTMAS WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Marley & Me (Fox) – $51.67M, $14,849 PTA, $51.67M cume
2. NEW – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $39.1M, $13,086 PTA, $39.1M cume
3. NEW – Bedtime Stories (Disney) – $38.6M, $10,486PTA, $38.6M cume
4. NEW – Valkyrie (MGM/UA) – $30.4M, $11,214 PTA, $30.4M cume
5. Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $22.38M, $6,517 PTA, $49.8M cume
6. Seven Pounds (Sony) – $18.2M, $6,599 PTA, $38.86M cume
7. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $11.37M, $3,659 PTA, $28.07M cume
8. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $10.59M, $4,409 PTA, $63.4M cume
9. NEW – The Spirit (Lionsgate) – $10.35M, $4,126 PTA, $10.35M cume
10. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $7.29M, $2,904 PTA, $111.67M cume
11. Doubt (Miramax) – $7.1M, $5,604 PTA, $8.78M cume
12. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $5.81M, $9,417 PTA, $19.41M cume
13. Twilight (Summit) – $5.5M, $2,975 PTA, $167.06M
*Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $3.2M, $38,155 PTA, $4.28M cume
*Milk (Focus) – $2.32M, $7,481 PTA, $13.52M cume
*Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $1.94M, $9,473 PTA, $3.58M cume
*The Reader (Weinstein) – $847,000, $7,302 PTA, $1.23M cume
*The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $515,000, $28,611 PTA, $893,000 cume
*NEW – Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $192,400, $64,133 PTA, $192.400 cume
*NEW – Last Chance Harvey (Overture) – $132,000, $22,000 PTA, $132,000 cume
*NEW – Waltz with Bashir (Sony Classics) – $55,144, $11,029 PTA, $55,144 cume

FINALY 4-DAY CHRISTMAS WEEKEND PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) – 3 locations, $64,133 PTA
2. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – 84 locations, $38,155 PTA
3. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – 18 locations, $28,611 PTA
4. NEW – Last Chance Harvey (Overture) – 6 location, $22,000 PTA
5. NEW – Marley & Me (Fox) – 3,480 locations, $14,849 PTA
6. NEW – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – 2,988 locations, $13,086 PTA
7. NEW – Valkyrie (MGM/UA) – 2,711 locations, 11,075 PTA
8. NEW – Waltz with Bashir (Sony Classics) – 6 locations, $11,029 PTA
9. NEW – Bedtime Stories (Disney) – 3,681 locations, $10,486 PTA
10. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – 205 locations, $9,473 PTA
11. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – 614 locations, $9,471 PTA
12. Milk (Focus) – 311 locations, $7,481 PTA
13. The Reader (Weinstein) – 116 locations, $7,302 PTA
14. Seven Pounds (Sony) – 2,758 locations – $6,599 PTA
15. Yes Man (Warner Bros) – 3,434 locations, $6,517 PTA
16. Doubt (Miramax) – 1,267 locations, $5,450 PTA
17. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – 2,402 locations – $4,409 PTA
18. NEW – The Spirit (Lionsgate) – 2,509 locations – $4,126 PTA

Bad weather with several major storms, including one in the Northeast, are making this a challenging weekend to project. I have revised my the 3-day estimates I released last night to allow for films to enjoy slightly stronger Saturdays, but the general story is the same. Jim Carrey and Yes Man (Warner Bros) at #1, Will Smith and Seven Pounds (Sony) at #2 and Tale of Despereaux (Universal) at #3.

My major analysis piece I published Friday night still stands with the headlines being that Warner Bros now seems destined to cinch the all-time best one year domestic sales figure in studio history and Will Smith’s streak of consecutive $100M grossing movies will almost certainly end at 8 with his Gabriele Muccino-directed drama.

One major change is that Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) hasn’t expanded nearly as well as I originally projected. The almost certain Best Picture nominee increased to 589 locations this weekend and the result will be a likely 8th-place finish with about $2.94M and a PTA of $4,999 or so.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON REVISED EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $19.5M, $5,684 PTA, $19.5M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $16M, $5,806 PTA, $16M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $14.09M, $4,540 PTA, $14.09M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $8.97M, $2,522 PTA, $47.54M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $7.3M, $2,080 PTA, $99.72M cume
6. Twilight (Summit) – $5.1M, $1,706 PTA, $158.3M cume
7. Bolt (Disney) -$4.45M, $1,501 PTA, $95.2M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.94M, $4,999 PTA, $11.92M cume
9. Australia (Fox) – $2.15M, $975 PTA, $41.77M cume
10. Quantum of Solace (Sony) – $1.6M, $798 PTA, $172.4M cume
11. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.6M, $798 PTA, $172.42M cume
12. Milk (Focus) – $1.57M, $4,417 PTA, $10.25M cume
13. Nothing Like the Holidays (Overture) – $1.15M, $689 PTA, $5.77M cume

On the specialty front, Mickey Rourke is a box office attraction again. The one-time movie star was at his peak in the 1980’s with movie like Diner ($14M cume), The Pope of Greenwich Village ($6.8M cume), 9 1/2 Weeks ($6.7M cume) and Angel Heart ($17.1M cume) is riding the crest of an enormous comeback wave. His role in Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) has already earned him a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actor – Drama and Independent Spirit Award nomination for Best Male Lead and a SAG Award nomination for Best Male Actor, and now the film has scored a huge opening weekend Per Theatre Average.

The Wrestler opened on Wednesday at 4 locations managing an outstanding $11,732 PTA. The extraordinarily well-reviewed movie is headed for a 3-day of $210,900, which will translate to an estimated $53,438 per location. That marks the second-best PTA of the year, trailing only the $60,236 debut of Frost/Nixon (Universal) two weeks ago.

At #2 on the weekend PTA scoreboard is Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (Warner Bros), which is a bit of a disappointment registering an average of approximately $23,400 at each of its 19 playdates. As Eastwood has admitted, this may be his final on-screen performance, but when the Hollywood Foreign Press ignored him in its annual Golden Globe nominations and then the SAG Awards bypassed the screen legend as well in the Best Male Actor category, it likely damaged the movie’s ability to compete on a limited basis with other pictures with stronger awards resumes.

In my Friday Night Estimates story, I wrote that Gran Torino may be able to bank $5.4M by the end of the year. Even with an expansion to 70 locations on Christmas Day, the softer-than-expected Friday probably means that Clint’s “swan song” is more likely to be at $3.1M or so at the end of business of December 31. Regardless, I am still projecting that Warner Bros will likely break the all-time one-year record for domestic sales for a studio.

John Patrick Shanley’s Doubt, a film adaptation of his Tony and Pulitzer Prize winning play, will bank about $703,000 or so this weekend at 39 locations for a PTA of just over $18,000. That compares favorably to recent movies like Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics), which managed $16,500 per screen in its first expansion (27 playdates) and Frost/Nixon, which generated just over $16,000 per screen in week #2 (39 playdates). With Golden Globe and SAG Awards nominations for Meryl Streep, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams and Viola Davis, Doubt should continue to play well through the awards season.

Weinstein has elected to hold expansion for The Reader until Christmas Day, so the picture remains on 4 screens and appears headed for about $114,000 by Monday, down about 35% from its opening weekend at the same locations. That would give Stephen Daldry’s Oscar contender the fourth-best weekend PTA at a possible $14,240.

Ron Howard’s amazing Frost/Nixon picked up just 2 new locations this weekend as Universal prepares for a major Christmas Day expansion. Powered by SAG Awards nominations this week for Best Ensemble and Best Male Actor: Frank Langella, the film will add about $361,000 this weekend, down about 42%. That equates to an $8,805 PTA, #5 for the frame.

STEVE MASON’S EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – 4 locations – $53,438 PTA
2. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – 19 locations – $23,400 PTA
3. Doubt (Miramax) – 39 locations – $18,026 PTA
4. The Reader (Weinstein) – 8 locations – $14,240 PTA
5. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – 41 locations – $8,805 PTA
6. NEW – Seven Pounds – 2,785 locations – $5,806 PTA
7. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – 3,434 locations – $5,498 PTA
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – 589 locations – $4,999 PTA
9. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – 3,104 locations – $4,540 PTA
10. Milk (Focus) – 356 locations – $4,417 PTA

Jim Carrey and his high-concept comedy Yes Man (Warner Bros) will win the pre-Christmas weekend out-performing Will Smith’s more challenging Seven Pounds (Sony), although both films seem to be under-performing industry expectations.. Audiences are saying “Yes” to a breezy, cheerful, undemanding movie experience, although it is not a particularly emphatic “Yes.” In my Final Weekend Tracking column, I predicted $26.35M for Yes Man, and industry tracking certainly supported an opening in the mid-$20M’s. Instead, moviegoers have agreed to the tune of only $6.7M on opening day, and that could translate to a less-than-expected $18.76 or so by Monday morning.

Meanwhile, Will Smith has landed in unfamiliar territory. This strange new land for the World’s Biggest Movie Star is called “Second Place.” Seven Pounds managed to churn up only $5.3M to start the 3-day, and I am projecting a $15.63M opening. This movie, a re-teaming of Smith with his Pursuit of Happyness director Gabriele Muccino, has endured scathing early reviews and some definite “Will Smith is a little full of himself” backlash. The movie has been described as pretentious and downright dumb by some critics, and heart wrenchingly-optimistic and emotionally cathartic by others. The end result is Smith’s weakest opening since 2000’s Ali ($14.7M).

Yes Man is the latest in a year-long winning streak for Warner Bros Not only have they locked up the studio market share race for 2008, this decent-not-great opening may lift Warner Bros to finish the year with more domestic ticket sales than any studio in history. If my opening weekend number for Yes Man holds, I am projecting that the film could bank a possible $48M (conservatively) before the end of the year. Add to that a projected cume of $120M for Four Christmases by the close of business on December 31, and an anticipated $5.4M or so from the limited engagements of Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (70 playdates starting Christmas Day), and Warner Bros would reach an annual domestic sales figure of $1.75 billion, surpassing Sony’s $1.71 billion take in 2006.

The Dark Knight ($530.7M domestic so far) is the lynchpin of Warner Bros’ soon-to-be record-breaking year, but there are 4 other $100M+ grossing films that have helped to push the studio over-the-top. Along with Four Christmases, which will blow by $100M on Sunday, WB has also scored with Sex and the City ($152.6M cume), Get Smart ($130.3M cume) and Journey to the Center of the Earth ($101.7M cume). Sony set the previous record with one $200M+ performer (Da Vinci Code), 3 $100M+ hits (Casino Royale, Talladega Nights and Click) and about $96M of the ultimate $163.5M gross for Pursuit of Happyness, which landed in December 2006.

As for Will Smith, Seven Pounds is likely to break his historic streak of consecutive $100M+ grossing movies, which stands at 8.

2002 – Men in Black II – $52.1M opening – $190.4M cume
2003 – Bad Boys II – $46.5M opening – $138.6M cume
2004 – I, Robot – $52.1M opening – $144.8M cume
2004 – Shark Tale – $47.6M opening – $160.8M cume
2005 – Hitch – $43.1M opening – $179.4M cume
2006 – The Pursuit of Happyness – $26.5M opening – $163.5M cume
2007 – I Am Legend – $77.2M opening – $256.4M cume
2008 – Hancock – $62.6M opening – $227.9M cume

Critical pans be damned, people love Will Smith, but I am betting that the word-of-mouth on Seven Pounds will not be enough to net the 6.4 multiple that would be required to push it past $100M.

Universal’s Tale of Despereaux coaxed an estimated $3.8M in ticket sales to start the weekend and, with huge matinee business on Saturday and Sunday, the all-time umpteenth animated mouse movie should reach an estimated $15.27M good for third place, setting up for some solid holiday week business.

As expected, The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) has fallen apart, down about 67% for the weekend. Keanu Reeves’ spin on Klaatu could only muster $3.1M on its second Friday, and it will finish the frame with about $10.07M for a 10-day cume of $48.55M.

Rounding out the Top 5 is the aforementioned and surprisingly durable Four Christmases. Vince Vaughn and Reese Witherspoon enjoyed another $3.06M in Friday sales, and it will deliver $9.49M or so more of “holiday cheer” for Warner Bros by Monday morning.

Details of the weekend’s specialty releases and lots of analysis is on tap for Saturday morning.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $6.7M, $1,951 PTA, $6.7M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $5.3M, $1,922 PTA, $5.3M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $3.8M, $1,224 PTA, $3.8M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $3.1M, $871 PTA, $41.57M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $3.06M, $871 PTA, $95.47M cume
6. Twilight (Summit) – $1.55M, $521 PTA, $154.79M cume
7. Bolt (Disney) – $1.31M, $443 PTA, $92.06M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $1.24M, $2,120 PTA, $10.23M cume
9. Milk (Focus) – $804,000, $2,257 PTA, $9.48M cume
10. Australia (Fox) – $763,000, $345 PTA, $40.38M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $18.76M, $5,463 PTA, $18.76M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $15.63M, $5,669 PTA, $15.63M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $15.27M, $4,921 PTA, $15.27M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $10.07M, $2,830 PTA, $48.55M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $9.49M, $2,701 PTA, $101.9M cume
6. Bolt (Disney) -$5.66M, $1,908 PTA, $96.41M cume
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $4.86M, $8,268 PTA, $13.85M cume
8. Twilight (Summit) – $4.83M, $1,616 PTA, $158.06M cume
9. Milk (Focus) – $2.93M, $8,237 PTA, $11.61M cume
10. Australia (Fox) – $2.59M, $1,172 PTA, $42.21M cume