Summit scores a nice hit with KNOWING, which could reach $60M domestic, while I LOVE YOU, MAN has a shot at $70M in the US!

It was another good weekend for Summit Entertainment. The distributor behind last year’s meteoric hit Twilight has scored a solid hit with the Alex Proyas-directed Knowing, starring Nicolas Cage. Despite shaky word-of-mouth and negative reviews, the sci-fi thriller got a solid 9% bump on Saturday for a $9.7M second day, and it will likely finish its opening weekend with a possible $24.8M.

As a production company, Summit is responsible for some monster hits, including commercially and/or artistically successful films like Once (Oscar nominee for Best Picture), American Pie ($102..5M domestic), Memento (Oscar nominee for Best Original Screenplay: Chris Nolan), Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($186.3M domestic) and In the Valley of Ellah (Tommy Lee Jones nominated for Best Actor). But as a distributor, they got off to a slow start. (more…)

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take, a.r. rachman, academy awards
Posted Mar 22nd 2009 at 11:33 am in Entertainment, Steve Mason's Box Office | 8666210 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/22/studioestimates-2/Summit+scores+a+nice+hit+with+KNOWING%2C+which+could+reach+%2460M+domestic%2C+while+I+LOVE+YOU%2C+MAN+has+a+shot+at+%2470M+in+the+US%212009-03-22+18%3A33%3A54Steve+Mason

KNOWING grabs $8.95M Friday & targets $23.2M weekend, but word-of-mouth may push I LOVE YOU, MAN to $70M domestic; DUPLICITY gets a only a C from CinemaScore!

Early box office returns are pointing to a weekend win for Knowing from Summit, but I will put my money on I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) to generate more in US ticket sales over the long haul. The Nicolas Cage sci-fi thriller has grabbed an estimated $8.95M to start the weekend, and it will likely finish at $24M or so. That is, unless word-of-mouth catches up to it first.

Will reviews and word-of-mouth catch up to KNOWING?

Reviews for Knowing, written and directed by Alex Proyas, the inventive filmmaker behind the visually striking 1998 film Dark City and the 2004 Will Smith mega-hit I, Robot, has received overwhelmingly negative reviews (25% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but thanks to Twitter, real-time movie-goer reactions spread like wildfire. Here are some Tweets I just grabbed off the social networking platform.

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take, a.r. rachman, academy awards
Posted Mar 20th 2009 at 10:30 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 8596218 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/20/estimates-9/KNOWING+grabs+%248.95M+Friday+%26amp%3B+targets+%2423.2M+weekend%2C+but+word-of-mouth+may+push+I+LOVE+YOU%2C+MAN+to+%2470M+domestic%3B+DUPLICITY+gets+a+only+a+C+from+CinemaScore%212009-03-21+05%3A30%3A27Steve+Mason

KNOWING is favored to win the weekend, but is I LOVE YOU, MAN poised for an upset?

For the last few weeks, Summit’s Knowing, starring Nicolas Cage, has appeared to be the likely winner of the upcoming box office weekend. But, my sources tell me that I Love You, Man, the new comedy starring Paul Rudd (Role Models) and Jason Segal (Forgetting Sarah Marshall) has surged in the latest pre-release industry tracking.

In the spirit of March Madness, I’m calling for the upset. I Love You, Man may not actually be a Judd Apatow movie, but it sure does look like one in trailers and commercials. The movie reportedly “rocked the house” at the South By South West Festival last week, and the buzz is very positive. I am calling for $21.5M, which would be above industry expectations.

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take, a.r. rachman, academy awards
Posted Mar 19th 2009 at 5:39 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 8503027 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/19/tracking-3/KNOWING+is+favored+to+win+the+weekend%2C+but+is+I+LOVE+YOU%2C+MAN++poised+for+an+upset%3F2009-03-20+00%3A39%3A04Steve+Mason

Audiences RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN on Saturday as The Rock’s new family film targets $25M start & $85M domestic, but WATCHMEN is now headed for no more than $110M in the US!

As expected Disney’s Race To Witch Mountain enjoyed a huge Saturday surge for just over $11M in tickets sold, and the reboot of the 70’s franchise will finish with about $25M for the 3-day. Overall, Race posted the year’s seventh-best Saturday performance.

TOP 10 SATURDAY GROSSES IN 2009
1. March 7 – Watchmen – $18.3M
2. February 21 – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail – $16.6M
3. February 14 – Friday the Thirteenth – $14.3M
4. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $13.2M
5. January 10 – Gran Torino – $12.1M
6. January 31 – Taken – $11.65M
7. March 14 - Race To Witch Mountain – $11M (estimated)
8. February 7 – He’s Just Not That Into You – $10.9M
9. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $10M
10. January 17 – Gran Torino – $10M
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Posted Mar 15th 2009 at 12:02 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 802822 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/15/studio-estimates/Audiences+RACE+TO+WITCH+MOUNTAIN+on+Saturday+as+The+Rock%27s+new+family+film+targets+%2425M+start+%26amp%3B+%2485M+domestic%2C+but+WATCHMEN+is+now+headed+for+no+more+than+%24110M+in+the+US%21+2009-03-15+19%3A02%3A03Steve+Mason

Wrestler-turned-movie star Dwayne Johnson leads RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN to a $24.25M opening, while WATCHMEN plummets 71%!

As Watchmen (Warner Bros) falls, “The Rock” appears to be racing to a weekend win. Disney’s Race To Witch Mountain, starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, is off to a solid start with $6.8M or so on opening day, and, with its expected surge in family matinee audiences on Saturday and Sunday, it will likely triumph with a possible $24.25M.

Meanwhile last weekend’s winner Watchmen staggered to a second Friday of only $5.4M or so, and I am projecting only $15.75M for the 3-day. That marks a 71% drop. Anything over $20M would have been acceptable, but the bottom has fallen out of this movie, and it will now struggle to reach $100M domestic. When the foreign and DVD are added, it may make a small profit, but it will likely be negligible. The superstitious might suggest that Watchmen writer Alan Moore’s alleged curse may be to blame, but the reality is that word-of-mouth has been more negative than for any movie in recent memory.

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take, a.r. rachman, academy awards
Posted Mar 13th 2009 at 10:46 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 7964662 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/13/estimates-8/Wrestler-turned-movie+star+Dwayne+Johnson+leads+RACE+TO+WITCH+MOUNTAIN+to+a+%2424.25M+opening%2C+while+WATCHMEN+plummets+71%25%212009-03-14+05%3A46%3A03Steve+Mason

WITCH MOUNTAIN could “Rock” WATCHMEN for surprising weekend win!

One of the coolest ways to use the social networking platform Twitter is to find out what people are thinking, saying and Twittering about in real time. Here’s a small sampling of Tweets from the opening weekend of Watchmen (Warner Bros).

The Watchmen = Epic fail!

If you haven’t seen The Watchmen yet, I’d urge you to read the graphic novel first. Well, actually, I’d urge you to JUST read the GN. lol.

Watchmen.undecided,confused as superhero film with

very little superhero action.Convoluted story,but overall watchable. My opinion only

I was bored while watching Watchmen

Just got out of Watchmen…. Ouch, would spend the 9 quid on – can’t even find the humour, brain switched off 1 hour into the 3- BIG YAWN (more…)

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take, a.r. rachman, academy awards
Posted Mar 11th 2009 at 9:53 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Media Criticism, Reviews, Steve Mason's Box Office | 7804642 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/11/final-tracking-2/WITCH+MOUNTAIN+could+%E2%80%9CRock%E2%80%9D+WATCHMEN+for+surprising+weekend+win%212009-03-12+04%3A53%3A12Steve+Mason

WATCHMEN down 24% Saturday to a likely $55.65M 3-day; Is word-of-mouth “killing the masks?”

According to studio estimates, Watchmen (Warner Bros) will finish the weekend with an estimated $55.65M. After seizing $4.5M in Thursday midnight business, there were rumblings about $29M on opening day and an opening weekend of $70M+. When the picture scored a lesser but still good $25.2M Friday, weekend estimates were revised downward. As of Saturday morning, my projection was for $57M, and Watchmen came in even lower than that.

Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s densely written graphic novel tumbled 24% from Friday to Saturday. Granted, midnight shows took a lot of steam out of the movie, but that’s a pretty significant fall given that the Males 25 Plus demo – a key one for this film – were not likely part of the Thursday fanboy crowd and, despite the current unemployment rate, were working on Friday.

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 300, a.r. rachman, adam sandler
Posted Mar 8th 2009 at 11:14 am in Entertainment, Featured Story, Media Criticism, Steve Mason's Box Office | 7521075 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/08/studioestimates/WATCHMEN+down+24%25+Saturday+to+a+likely+%2455.65M+3-day%3B+Is+word-of-mouth+%22killing+the+masks%3F%222009-03-08+19%3A14%3A15Steve+Mason

WATCHMEN with $25.2M opening day, but “ticking downward,” now targeting $57M 3-day & $145M domestic!

“Who is watching the Watchmen?” Just about everyone…or so it seems.

The brand new film adaptation of the classic graphic comic Watchmen is a hit of monstrous proportions on its opening weekend, but not everyone loves it. In fact, not only is there a prominent character named Rohrschach (played by Oscar nominee Jackie Earle Haley), the film itself is serving as a Rohrschach Test for critics, fanboys and the broader public.

The Zack Snyder-directed $120M epic started with $4.5M in Thursday midnight business which is outstanding. There was no way for Watchmen to approach the $18.5M midnight start for lat summer’s The Dark Knight. First off, it is March and not the middle of summer blockbuster season. Kids have school. People are working. These are not the lazy days of July when it is easier for many to see a movie at midnight on Thursday, and hit the office late on Friday. The other factor is the movie’s rating. This is an R-rated movie, not PG-13 like The Dark Knight. (more…)

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 300, a.r. rahman, academy awards
Posted Mar 6th 2009 at 10:32 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Media Criticism, Steve Mason's Box Office | 7469827 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/06/estimates-7/WATCHMEN+with+%2425.2M+opening+day%2C+but+%22ticking+downward%2C%22+now+targeting+%2457M+3-day+%26amp%3B+%24145M+domestic%212009-03-07+06%3A32%3A56Steve+Mason

WATCHMEN scores $4.5M in Thursday midnight previews!

Zack Snyder’s Watchmen, with domestic distribution rights owned by Warner Bros and international distribution rights being handled by Paramount ( oh, and by the way, Fox also has skin in this game thanks to its recent litigation), is off to a blazing start. With well-promoted Thursday midnight and after midnight screenings (1,600 or so), the film adaptation of the classic graphic novel seized an estimated $4.5M.

That is almost double what 2007’s 300 and November’s Quantum of Solace delivered in their Thursday midnight showings. I am being told that, based on that start, my 3-day prediction of $63M is low. That kind of midnight start for a 2 hour, 41 minute movie could equate to a $30M opening day, which could possible translate to an opening weekend in the low $70M’s.

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Tags: alan moore, alex tse, billy crudup, box office, Carla gugino
Posted Mar 6th 2009 at 10:02 am in Steve Mason's Box Office | 739747 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/06/watchmen-scores-45m-in-thursday-midnight-previews/WATCHMEN+scores+%244.5M+in+Thursday+midnight+previews%212009-03-06+18%3A02%3A03Steve+Mason