Crystal Lee Sutton, 68, died a couple of weeks ago of brain cancer.  You might know her better by her Hollywood name: Norma Rae.  Crystal’s life story was the inspiration for the 1979 Sally Field blockbuster that grossed $22 million (in 1979 dollars), four Oscar nominations, and two Oscars including Best Actress for the aforementioned Ms. Field.  Norma Rae’s character is #15 on the American Film Institute’s list of all-time greatest screen heroes; Norma Rae is rated 16^th of their “100 Most Inspiring Movies of All Time.”  Given all this you probably think that Crystal Lee Sutton died in relative comfort, content with her life’s work and unencumbered by material concerns such as medical bills.  Well, guess again.

Crystal Lee Sutton actually did many of the things in real life that Sally Field did in Norma Rae, including writing “Union” on a piece of cardboard and holding it up for everyone to see, sparking the wildcat strike that launched her cause.  But when the producers of Norma Rae refused to give her script approval Sutton withdrew her name from the picture, thereby foregoing any participation in the profits.  While Sally Field and the producers of Norma Rae were attending the Oscars, Crystal Lee Sutton went on to a series of other low-paying jobs, including work at a chicken processing plant (afterward saying she’d “rather shovel shit” than work there again) and then put herself through school to become a nurse’s aid.  At some point Crystal received a small settlement from the movie she inspired, but it wasn’t enough to provide her with even minimal financial security.

At the time of her death Crystal had just won a dispute over coverage with–you guessed it—her medical insurance company, and her husband was working two low-paying jobs to support Crystal during her last days.  Upon hearing of Crystal’s death, Sally Field described her as “a remarkable woman whose brave struggles have left a lasting impact on this country and, without doubt, on me personally.  Portraying Crystal Lee in ‘Norma Rae,’ however loosely based, not only elevated me as an actress, but as a human being.”  To which she might have, but didn’t add, “It didn’t elevate me enough to write Crystal a generous check from the many millions I have earned as an actress, or to organize a Hollywood fundraiser on her behalf, or to assume even partial responsibility for her medical bills, which would have been well within my means, but, you know… I felt like I was pretty darn elevated, just the same.”  To paraphrase somebody you know, Ms. Field, we resent you!  We really, really resent you for this!  Oh, there’s that darn piano music telling me to wrap up… oh, thank you, everybody!

It would be unfair–exploitative, even– to blame Sally Field for the fact that Crystal Lee Sutton died broke and forgotten.  Lots of other people in Hollywood were in a position to ease Crystal’s financial burdens and couldn’t be bothered to do so.  What’s appalling is how many leading Hollywood figures enrich themselves playing, writing about, or directing movies about the poor, the down-trodden, and so on, and then forget all about the real-life subjects of their scenery-chewing once they’ve moved on to their next project.  Worse, these smug actorcrats berate us little people for not paying enough taxes, not donating enough to charity, and, lately, for resisting efforts to “reform” the health care we’ve earned by extending it to those who haven’t.

And it’s not just actors who won’t walk the activism walk.  Michael Moore has built a career out of parlaying social activism into a series of lucrative “documentaries,” if an investigative film whose findings are written before shooting starts is your idea of a documentary.  Moore has been called… OK, by me… the only filmmaker in Hollywood who shoots three different ending to his documentaries and then uses the one that tests the best.  For all of his blathering about “the little guy” and workers’ rights, Moore is notorious for not paying his crews union wages, not giving his writers the on-screen credits they deserve, and generally being a miserable person to work for.  Moore’s four most popular films alone have grossed over $300 million; if his earnings for TV, publishing and speeches are included his tales of exploited G.M. workers, exploited teens, exploited Iraqis, exploited sick people, and exploited victims of the banking crisis have generated close to half a billion dollars.  Some might say that capitalism, described by Moore in his latest offering (which I refuse to plug here) as evil, has been pretty good to him.  But if Michael Moore is re-distributing the millions he’s pocketed to the victims he and his film crews have, uh… well, exploited in order to make those millions, it’s the best-kept secret in Hollywood.

But as I’m sure you all know they don’t call it show “business” for nothing, and I’ve got my own career to think about.  So in the interest of full disclosure I hereby acknowledge that I’ve recently taken my place at the Hollywood writer/actor-vist feeding trough.  I’ve just started a script about a union organizer whose bravery in the face of corporate intimidation sparked a movement that improved the lives of millions, after which her life story was stolen from her and turned into a highly acclaimed movie that made millions for everyone involved except its subject.  The working title for my new project is Crystal Lee and I’ve gotta tell you, I’m pretty excited about it.

Recently the film’s British director Danny Boyle, serving as jury president of the 12th Shanghai Film Festival, confided during a panel discussion that on “Slumdog” he had shed the patronizing, “imperialist” mentality, relying heavily on a local Indian crew. Boyle also observed that while it was “regrettable” that Beijing imposed censorship restrictions on its filmmakers, he’d nonetheless love to work in China, as it would be a “challenge learning Mandarin.” Boyle neglected to mention that on “Slumdog” he’d skipped the challenge of learning Hindi, necessitating an Indian co-director, and also skipped the patronizing practice of paying Western wages, and the low pay for local child actors would fuel most of the subsequent controversies.

After its national US release in January 2009, “Slumdog” received a positive critical reception in the West, with a 94% rating by Rotten Tomatoes, though some critics raised what would become ongoing issues, with “The Guardian’s” Peter Bradshaw regarding it as “an outsider’s view” and “a product placement” for the very quiz show owned by Celador, the film’s producer. But on its release in India, including in a dubbed Hindi version of this mostly (2/3) English language film, “Slumdog” did only moderate box office, especially the English version, which one trade analyst found “not ideally suited for Indian sentiment.” Indian critics mostly bought the film’s energetic ride, while others puzzled over the mix of languages and the key issue of authenticity, questioning whether the film was “a white man’s imagined India,” a superficial “poverty porn.” Even novelist Salman Rushdie was unhappy, objecting to the film’s slick yet improbable pop version of “magical realism.”

Then the issue of pay for the child actors began to make news, with the Times of India claiming Azharuddin Mohammed Ismail, who played Salim as a child, was paid £700 and Rubina Ali, who played Latika, £500, with both still living in makeshift shacks in the slums of Bandra, a suburb of Mumbai. Distributor Fox Searchlight replied that for their month of work the kids were paid three times the average annual adult Bandran salary. Boyle and producer Christian Colson added that they had “paid painstaking and considered attention to how Azhar and Rubina’s involvement in the film could be of lasting benefit to them over and above the payment they received for their work.” This attention included trust funds to cover education, transportation, and expenses for the next eight years. Boyle declined to reveal the amounts of these trust funds, as this could make them “vulnerable and a target,” but according to the India Times Azhar got £17,500 in trust until age 18. His father, Mohammed Ismail, responded, “My son has taken on the world and won. I am so proud of him, but I want more money now.” Both Azhar and Rubina attended the Oscar ceremony in February, Azhar accompanied by his mother and Latika by her uncle, and soon after the Maharashtra Housing Authority announced that both kids would be given “free houses.”

In April the filmmakers responded to further charges of exploitation by donating $747,500 to a charity for the welfare of Mumbai street children, a modest amount for a film brandishing the moral authority of these destitute kids, made for only $15 million while grossing $350 million.

In May Azhar was awakened by unannounced bulldozers demolishing his Mumbai slum home as part of a drive against illegal shanties, and the next week Rubina’s shanty home was razed to make way for an overpass. Rubina and her father were briefly hospitalized, and “Slumdog” director Boyle and producer Colson then announced that in addition to the education trust and grant to charity, they were raising the amount, revealed to have been $30,000, now to $50,000, for Azhar and Rubin to purchase new apartments, as well as giving each family a lump sum of $3,000 and $130 a month stipend.

Then in June it was announced Azhar finally got his new house, a tiny 250 square foot apartment, all that $50,000 would buy in Mumbai’s hot real estate market, casting a new light on the “post-imperialist” filmmakers’ claim of munificent reward according to local standards. Crystallizing the paternalism of this whole sideshow, the ownership of the home is to be transferred from a trust to Azhar when he turns 18, provided he completes school. As if to promise the sideshow would continue, it was announced that Rubina has signed on with Random House to publish her life story, Slumgirl Dreaming: My Journey to the Stars. Boyle is reportedly reassembling his “Slumdog” team for a future project, adapting Maximun City: Bombay Lost and Found.

Back of all this noisy fallout, it’s still the film “Slumdog” Millionaire and the novel from which it is adapted, Q & A by Vikas Swarup, that raise the deeper issues. Like director Boyle wooing the Chinese, both film and novel adopt fundamentally anti-Western postures. The book’s hero, Ram Mohammad Thomas, suffers much at the hands of Catholic priests (some gay), malevolent Australian diplomats, English-speaking tourists, and Westernized figures like gangsters and movie stars (some also gay). In the film most of hero Jamal’s antagonists – police, beggar-chiefs, gangsters, the TV host (none gay), are visual figures out of Western media, a motif wickedly established when the child Jamal dunks in outhouse sewage for a photo autograph by a helicopter-borne Bollywood star Amitabh Bachchan. For novelist Swarup, a diplomat from a line of distinguished Indian lawyers, there is some irony here, as he is beneficiary of the two great Britannic legacies, the English language in which he writes and which most of the film speaks and the common law.

Moreover, the very narrative hook of the novel, the improbable quiz show leading to the fulfillment of dreams of wealth and love, constructs a state of mind: what you know that is most important is simply the inscription of the injustices you have suffered. It is the epistemology of victimhood, the right answers magically accessible to the wretched, or so “it is written.”

At the heart of any current look at India is the key issue of economic development, and both the film and book display related views. Globalization in India, while bringing slick modern media and flashy urban nightlife, is viewed as little different from the old imperialism, with slums and beggars replaced by ugly concrete construction and chai wallahs in phone call centers, an extremely discontented, leftist view of globalization as simply a worldwide extension of the old exploitative gangster/hooker relationships of capitalism, enforced by oppressive police. Such is “Slumdog’s” facile, distorted view of modern India.

This year 700 million Indians voted in month-long elections that returned the secular Congress party to power, an endorsement of religious toleration in a complex land with a Hindu majority plus a minority of the world’s second largest Muslim population. Since moving away from Soviet-style socialism and protectionism, India has been growing almost as fast as China, and now contains a middle class of about 200 million people. To suggest that this enduringly secular, agonizingly multicultural, authentically democratic, free market miracle is little more than a corrupted media show is delusional. As if to repudiate the film’s facile view, the entire subsequent saga of Azhar and Rubina’s pay and housing can stand as a case study of the vulnerability of those at the bottom in the third world, not without luck but without legally recorded and capitalized property as described by economist Hernando de Soto.

Regarding the film as an “outsider’s view” of India, the filmmakers have trumpeted their veneration of Bollywood films, especially the masala genre, and “Slumdog” is full of many of its elements and conventions, notably veteran actors, the score, and the final musical production number, as a kind of assertion of authenticity. This hardly proves a “post-imperialist” mindset. Hollywood films have been voracious appropriators of international trends, notably any avant-garde style, especially since WWII, when their audience increasingly became a youth audience and their business increasingly the sale of figures and tales of rebellion, like the “New Wave” Bonnie and Clyde, to the young. Director Boyle is an accomplished contemporary film stylist, comfortable with post-modern irony and pastiche, as in his successful “Trainspotting,” a breathless pixilation of charming young lowlife junkies.

Adaptation of a novel to film is usually a process of reduction and activation, and screenwriter Simon Beaufoy did a skillful job on “Slumdog,” eliminating characters, simplifying events, constructing the romance, and setting a ticking clock for the last act. There is, however, one change that involves more than streamlining. The novel’s protagonist is named Ram Mohammad Thomas because he is an orphan raised by a Catholic priest named Thomas in a religiously mixed community of Hindus (Ram) and Muslims (Mohammad), a personification of religious toleration appropriate to anyone with hope for India. The film changes this, with Ram, now Jamal, and his friend Salim now brothers in parallel lives, a trope of Indian gangster films, but both Muslim victims of Hindu mob violence, no less than the murder of their mother. As Jamal captains the triumphant main plot of the quiz show and romance, Salim works the parallel gangster/success subplot until its end in renunciation, when aspiring gangster Salim explodes against his false compatriots. Reminiscent of the classic film gangster’s moment of tragic recognition, the martyred Salim, now bathed in cash (millions?), goes out declaring “God is great.”

In Boyle’s flashy, fragmented, rhythmic style this renders an aspect of the film’s resolution a jihadi music video. Why would these “post-imperialist” Western filmmakers give this film such an Islamist twist? Perhaps it is just the same savvy recognition of their young audience that leads A-list Hollywood types to wear keffiyeh scarves as markers of hip transgressive style.

Perhaps it’s akin to what Michael J. Totten has called the “Orientalism of fools,” maybe even an expression of a suicidal self-loathing, an endgame for Western radicalism, which has been an attitude of the leftist cultural elite for some time.

As a production company, Summit is responsible for some monster hits, including commercially and/or artistically successful films like Once (Oscar nominee for Best Picture), American Pie ($102..5M domestic), Memento (Oscar nominee for Best Original Screenplay: Chris Nolan), Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($186.3M domestic) and In the Valley of Ellah (Tommy Lee Jones nominated for Best Actor). But as a distributor, they got off to a slow start.

SUMMIT RELEASES
- in sequential order -
11/9/07 – P2 – $4M cume
2/29/08 – Penelope – $10M cume
3/14/08 – Never Back Down – $24.8M cume
8/15/08 – Fly Me To the Moon – $13.2M cume
10/17/08 – Sex Drive – $8.4M cume
11/21/08 – Twilight – $191.3M cume
2/6/09 – Push – $30.9M cume
3/20/09 – Knowing – $24.8M opening – $55M-$60M projected cume

As I wrote Friday, I think that word-of-mouth is weak for Knowing, but the movie held up pretty well over opening weekend. It is definitely helped by it’s PG-13 rating, its appeal to Males Under 25 (especially Under 17’s), and its similarity to Cage’s National Treasure franchise.

Meanwhile, I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) ticked up 8% on Saturday to about $6.8M, and it will have banked about $18M by Monday morning. That is on par with Paul Rudd’s Role Models ($19.1M opening) and Jason Segal’s Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($17.7M opening). I’m sticking with $65M-$70M as my projection for domestic box office for this very funny movie that happens to have a very good heart.

I really wonder about the R-rating for I Love You, Man. It is a very, very soft R. There is no nudity or sex (although there are references to oral sex in particular), and it doesn’t roll up a high count of F-bombs. It seems to me that the ratings board was hard on this one, and a PG-13 rating could have meant an additional $5M-$8M (at least) on opening weekend.

DUPLICITY is Julia Roberts' first feature lead since 2003's MONA LISA SMILE

The other new wide release is Duplicity (Universal), starring Julia Roberts and Clive Owen. This is a very smart, densely-plotted, stylish-looking movie for grown-ups. Writer/director Tony Gilroy is among the best screenwriters in town with all three Jason Bourne movies on his resume along with the legal thriller Michael Clayton, nominated for 7 Academy Awards.

With Females 25 Plus as its most important demo, the film got a big 27% Saturday bump to almost $6M. I saw the movie Saturday night, and it was about 60% women with lots of women in pairs and groups. That is a very good sign for future weeks since Females 25 Plus are never in a rush to see a movie on opening weekend. The audience I was in was mesmerized and laughed in all the right places, but overall, the CinemaScore exit survey was only a C. I still belive that, after a $14.4M third-place finish, Duplicity will get to the $45M-$50M range in the US.

Not strong enough to hold an audience for weekend #2 of RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN

Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) is not holding well at all, dipping to $13M for the weekend. A 46% second weekend drop spells an early end for the new one starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. It is just not especially well-liked, and Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks Animation) will destroy it next weekend.

Sorry Rohrschach, WATCHMEN is completely burned out

Finally, Watchmen (Warner Bros) suffered a second consecutive disastrous 3-day, down another 62% to $6.7M for a 17-day cume of $98M. Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s classic graphic novel is unlikely to reach much past $110M in the US, and with a soft foreign performance as well, it will struggle to reach any real profitability.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $24.81M, $7,447 PTA, $24.81M cume
2. NEW – I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $18M, $6,640 PTA, $18M cume
3. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $14.4M, $5,595 PTA, $14.4M cume
4. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $13M, $4,080 PTA, $44.71M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $6.72M, $1,916 PTA, $98M cume
6. The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.92M, $2,465 PTA, $24.04M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $4.4M, $1,654 PTA, $133.43M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.7M, $1,306 PTA, $137.2M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.51M, $1,368 PTA, $87.2M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.14M, $1,498 PTA, $72.8M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Will reviews and word-of-mouth catch up to KNOWING?

Reviews for Knowing, written and directed by Alex Proyas, the inventive filmmaker behind the visually striking 1998 film Dark City and the 2004 Will Smith mega-hit I, Robot, has received overwhelmingly negative reviews (25% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but thanks to Twitter, real-time movie-goer reactions spread like wildfire. Here are some Tweets I just grabbed off the social networking platform.

You can Follow me on Twitter@LAMase

Just saw the Knowing. How and why some movies get made is beyond me.

Nobody go see Knowing.

The Knowing was a great movie. BUT it made absolutely no sense, got kinda scary, and made me cry.. three times. Imagine Noah’s Ark in space.

Getting home from a lame movie. “Knowing” is better left unknown.

Just saw “Knowing” with Nicholas Cage – LOVED IT – don’t think many will though

Notice the last Tweet. That movie fan is actually already anticipating bad word-of-mouth. Maybe they saw Knowing with friends, and they were the only one who liked it, or maybe the general reaction in the theatre was negative. Here’s an even scarier Tweet.

I’m in the worst movie ever, Knowing. Horrible.

Think about this. Someone is sitting in the theatre on a Friday night, and, while the movie is still playing, they send out a terrible personal review. Studios used to be able to count on suckering people into theatres for a bad movie as long as they had a big star and some cool commercials. Now, because of texting, Twitter and even Facebook (which has switched to a more Twitter-like status report format), poor reviews from Friday ticket-buyers may depress box office on Saturday and Sunday.

You have to wonder who is giving Academy Award winner Nicolas Cage career advice. Look at the Rotten Tomatoes review scores for his last 10 movies.

ROTTEN TOMATOES REVIEW SCORES FOR THE LAST 10 NIC CAGE MOVIES
-live action lead roles -
Knowing – 25%
Bangkok Dangerous – 9%
Ghost Rider – 27%
National Treasure 2 – 32%
Next – 30%
The Wicker Man – 15%
World Trade Center – 70%
Lord of War – 61%
The Weather Man – 57%
National Treasure – 43%

Obviously, there is sometimes a huge disconnect between critical and commercial success. Ghost Rider and the National Treasure films were huge blockbuster hits, but The Wicker Man, Next, and Bangkok Dangerous were flat-out awful.

From Best Actor to WICKER MAN

Despite initial reactions, the family-friendly PG-13 rating and similarity to National Treasure will still sell some tickets in the next few weeks. The movie is likely headed to something in the $52-$60M range in the US, and it will likely perform fairly well overseas because of Cage’s drawing power.

Jason Segal (left) and Paul Rudd, the likable stars of John Hamburg's I LOVE YOU, MAN

At #2 for the day, and most likely for the 3-day, is John Hamburg’s I Love You, Man starring Paul Rudd and Jason Segal. Riding phenomenal reviews (81% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and huge buzz from its screening at the South By Southwest Conference and Festival, the R-rated comedy has opened to about $6.35M Friday, and I am projecting $18M for opening weekend.

Among the Twitteratti (tech slang for the early adopters of Twitter), I Love You, Man is already a word-of-mouth hit. Here are some sample Tweets.

go see I Love You Man, its HILARIOUS.

i love you, man is one of the funniest movies i have seen in a while.

Just saw I Love You, Man. Waaaaaay funnier than I expected. Oh god, it was good. Stay a little bit into the credits if you go.

Just saw “I love you, Man” it was awesome!

Just saw “I Love You Man.” Loved it! Haven’t laughed that hard in awhile!

I love I Love You, Man. I’m also in love with Rashida Jones.

“I Love You, Man” – while not lol hysterical, was pretty funny in parts (albeit raunchy) … overall, I enjoyed it … solid B or B+

We are in a sort of a Golden Age for raunchy R-rated comedy, and this movie is an above average example. Rudd, who made his name as a supporting player in Judd Apatow films like Anchorman and The 40-Year-Old Virgin, is on a roll. Fresh from the success of last year’s Role Models ($67.3M US), he is the protagonist here, playing a charming dork without a best friend to be the best man at his wedding. Enter Jason Segal from TV’s How I Met Your Mother, a guy who scored huge with last year’s sleeper hit Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($63.1M domestic). As Sydney Fife, Segal is the ideal Venice Beach bum talking about his “Man Cave” and idolizing the band Rush, which reached its pinnacle in the 70’s and 80’s.

Writer/director John Hamburg

Writer/director John Hamburg, who previously wrote the classic Meet the Parents, followed by Zoolander (a cult fave of many) and Meet the Fockers (a mega-hit with over $500M worldwide despite falling well short of the laughs in the original Meet the Parents), made his directorial debut with the forgettable Along Came Polly ($88M domestic), starring Ben Stiller and Jennifer Aniston.

Rashida Jones, the daughter of musical legend Quincy Jones and 1970's icon Peggy Lipton (THE MOD SQUAD), co-stars in I LOVE YOU, MAN

If you wouldn’t have shown me the credits for I Love You, Man, I would have assumed that comedy king Judd Apatow has something to do with this one, but his name is nowhere to be found. Hamburg has grabbed reliable Apatow players like Rudd and Segal (Apatow produced Forgetting Sarah Marshall and the short-lived TV series Undeclared, starring Segal), and created a pic that looks and feels like an Apatow movie.

In my mind, the so-called Golden Age of R-rated comedy began in the summer of 2005 with Wedding Crashers and The 40-Year-Old Virgin. Audiences have a real appetite for this niche, and, aside from Will Ferrell’s misguided hoops pic Semi-Pro, The Heartbreak Kid from the Farrelly Brothers and Weinstein Company’s 2008 Zack & Miri Make a Porno, the movies have delivered both critically and commercially.

THE TOP 15 GROSSING R-RATED COMEDIES FROM “THE GOLDEN AGE”
1. 7/15/05 – Wedding Crashers – $33.9M opening – $209.2M cume
2. 8/17/07 – Superbad – $33M opening – $121.4M cume
3. 7/25/08 – Step Brothers – $30.9M opening – $100.4M cume
4. 6/1/07 – Knocked Up – $30.7M opening – $148.8M cume
5. 11/3/06 – Borat – $26.4M opening – $128.5M cume
6. 8/13/08 – Tropic Thunder – $25.8M opening – $110.5M cume
7. 8/6/08 – Pineapple Express – $23.2M opening – $87.3M cume
8. 8/19/05 – The 40-Year-Old Virgin – $21.4M opening – $109.4M cume
9. 11/7/08 – Role Models – $19.1M opening – $67.3M cume
10. 4/18/08 – Forgetting Sarah Marshall – $17.7M opening – $63.1M cume
11. 2/29/08 – Semi-Pro – $15M opening – $33.5M cume
12. 10/5/07 – The Heartbreak Kid – $14M opening – $36.8M cume
13. 9/21/07 – Good Luck Chuck – $13.6M opening – $35M cume
14. 10/31/08 – Zack & Miri Make A Porno – $10M opening – $31.4M cume
15. 8/25/06 – Beerfest – $7M opening – $19.2M cume

The multiple – the number you multiply opening weekend by in order to reach the final domestic gross – will be high here. My early rough projection for gross domestic box office for I Love You, Man is something in the $67M-$75M range.

Tony Gilroy with his MICHAEL CLAYTON star George Clooney

The other wide release is Tony Gilroy’s Duplicity (Universal), starring Oscar winner Julia Roberts and Academy Awards nominee Clive Owen. Gilroy is directing for only the second-time after his Oscar nominated performance with Michael Clayton. He is a writer first, and, in addition to scripting the three Jason Bourne movies, he loves corporate paranoia (like in 1997’s over-the-top The Devil’s Advocate) and intricate plotting (as in 2000’s Proof of Life and Michael Clayton). Duplicity plays to his strengths.

Does she still have "it"?

Despite the presence of the rarely-seen Roberts, the film has failed to top industry expectations. Duplicty grabbed an estimated $4.7M on opening day and seems headed for about $14.86M and fourth-place by Monday. I have been told that Duplicity received a very soft C rating from opening day audiences surveyed by CinemaScore, but because 25 Plus Females don’t always rush right out to see a movie, this one could still get to $40M-$45M domestic, which would be respectable.

I had penciled in Disney’s Race To Witch Mountain, starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, for #3 with about $17M, but the movie is not holding well at all. Race managed only $3.8M on its second Friday, and I am targeting $14.63M for the weekend. That’s a 10-day cume of a rather soft $46.34M. The Dreamworks Animation 3-D spectacle Monsters Vs. Aliens will wipe it out next weekend.

It's past Doomsday for WATCHMEN

Rounding out the top five is Watchmen (Warner Bros), suffering another 62% drop. The Zack Snyder-directed graphic novel adaptation sold just $2M in tickets Friday, and the 3-day will be about $7M, and possibly less. On Monday, the movie’s domestic take will be at $97.81M, and Watchmen will look to fizzle to about $110M in the US.

PLEASE NOTE: I appreciate links to this column, but on some sites, people have been copying and pasting the whole column. It’s fine if some numbers are re-printed, but please link for the full story. Thanks!

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $8.95M, $2,686 PTA, $8.95M cume
2. NEW – I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $6.35M, $2,342 PTA, $6.35M cume
3. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $4.7M, $1,825 PTA, $4.7M cume
4. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $3.8M, $1,192 PTA, $35.51M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $2M, $577 PTA, $93.36M cume
6. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $1.97M, $820 PTA, $20.09M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $1.37M, $517 PTA, $130.41M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $800,000, $391 PTA, $135.3M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $795,000, $433 PTA, $85.49M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $630,000, $440 PTA, 71.34M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $23.27M, $6,984 PTA, $23.27M cume
2. NEW – I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $18M, $6,640 PTA, $18M cume
3. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $14.63M, $4,591 PTA, $46.34M cume
4. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $13.86M, $5,384 PTA, $13.86M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $6.48M, $1,846 PTA, $97.81M cume
6. The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.31M, $2,213 PTA, $23.44M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $4.4M, $1,654 PTA, $133.43M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.93M, $1,428 PTA, $137.44M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.74M, $1,495 PTA, $87.44M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.29M, $1,607 PTA, $73M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

In the spirit of March Madness, I’m calling for the upset. I Love You, Man may not actually be a Judd Apatow movie, but it sure does look like one in trailers and commercials. The movie reportedly “rocked the house” at the South By South West Festival last week, and the buzz is very positive. I am calling for $21.5M, which would be above industry expectations.

Robert DeNiro, hilarious in MEET THE PARENTS

Writer/director John Hamburg is at the helm with the likable Rudd and Segal in tow. He previously wrote Meet the Parents (brilliant) and its sequel Meet the Fockers (a lot less brilliant). He also wrote the cult hit Zoolander, which I hated, but has a loyal core of fans.

Meanwhile, tracking suggests that Knowing will open strongly. The reviews are generally negative (21% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but Roger Ebert of the Chicago Sun-Times has published a rave, saying that “Knowing is among the best science-fiction films I’ve seen — frightening, suspenseful, intelligent and, when it needs to be, rather awesome.”

Director Alex Proyas established himself as someone to watch with the striking visuals in 1998’s Dark City, and he followed with the commercially successful Will Smith vehicle I, Robot ($144.8M domestic) in 2004. But It’s been 14 long years since Nicolas Cage won his Academy Award for Best Actor, and he’s made a lot of bad movies since then. In fact, you could argue that nobody makes more bad movies than Cage. Captain Corelli’s Mandolin, Windtalkers, The Weather Man, The Wicker Man, Next and last fall’s Bangkok Dangerous were all commercial failures and critical disasters. Still, it’s hard to argue with the success of 2007’s Ghost Rider ($115.8M in the US) or the $800M worldwide box office generated by the National Treasure franchise.

Knowing looks an awful lot like National Treasure, and with Cage on familiar turf, the picture is likely to click. Industry expectations are that it will win the weekend, but I’m, calling for a #2 finish. I expect the movie to bank a possible $20.25M by Monday.

The third new wide release is Duplicity (Universal), which is running at 59% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. Director Tony Gilroy’s last movie was Michael Clayton, a 7-time Oscar nominee, and I was a huge fan of that George Clooney legal mystery-thriller. There is certainly room in the marketplace for a smart, grown-up movie right now, but whenever you have a film with 25 Plus appeal, the reality is that the audience doesn’t always show up on opening weekend.

The last major studio film with Julia Roberts as the clear lead was 2003’s Mona Lisa Smile ($11.5M opening – $63.8M). Here, she is re-teamed with Closer co-star Clive Owen, who received an Oscar nomination for his work in that dark Mike Nichols-directed relationship drama.

Oscar winner Julia Roberts with husband Danny Moder & kids with (faces blurred)

Is she still a movie star? I say the answer is yes, but her ingénue days are over. With Duplicity, Gilroy has crafted a sort of Mr. & Mrs. Smith with corporate espionage replacing gunplay, and this is exactly the kind of movie Roberts should be making. I am targeting $14.5M for opening weekend, which will likely be enough for a #4 finish, behind Disney’s family-themed Race To Witch Mountain. The latest starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson could dip only 30% to anout $17.1M.

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 20-22
1. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $21.5M
2. Knowing (Summit) – $20.25M
3. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $17.1M
4. Duplicity (Universal) – $14.5M
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $9.6M
6. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $6.35M
7. Taken (Fox) – $5.1M
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $3.8M
9. Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $3.45M
10. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $2.35M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

TOP 10 SATURDAY GROSSES IN 2009
1. March 7 – Watchmen – $18.3M
2. February 21 – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail – $16.6M
3. February 14 – Friday the Thirteenth – $14.3M
4. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $13.2M
5. January 10 – Gran Torino – $12.1M
6. January 31 – Taken – $11.65M
7. March 14 - Race To Witch Mountain – $11M (estimated)
8. February 7 – He’s Just Not That Into You – $10.9M
9. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $10M
10. January 17 – Gran Torino – $10M

The last family film that teamed Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Disney was 2007’s The Game Plan. That film opened with $23M and finished with a $90.6M domestic take. That’s a 3.93 multiple ($23M X 3.93 multiple = $90.6M). But, after opening on September 28, 2007, that movie had 5 full weeks without any other significant family films in the market (Bee Movie from Dreamworks was released on November 2). Race To Witch Mountain, however, will face a minor challenger next weekend with Summit’s Knowing, starring Nicolas Cage, and then Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks) will be a box office buzzsaw starting March 27. Because of the competition, the Race is likely to finish with $80M-$85M domestic.

Meanwhile the Saturday-to-Saturday drop for Watchmen (Warner Bros) was less steep than anticipated. On opening weekend, Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s classic graphic novel generated $18.3M on Saturday, and the movie was down 58% to about $7.7M yesterday. The final weekend take will still be a disappointing $18.07M, down 67%, but here’s a positive spin. If the opening weekend Thursday midnight business of $4.5M is deducting from last weekend’s $55.2M haul, the drop is a more respectable 64%.

The movie is being supported now by second-time (and even third-time) ticket purchases by hardcore fanboys, but ultimately, the picture will likely finish in The $100M-$110M range, which is a disappointment. Watchmen is a disaster in international markets, and although it may still break even or reach marginal profitability when ancillary rights are factored in – home video, cable, syndication, video games – it’s hard to imagine any sort of sequel. You could argue that the movie is “sequel-proof” anyway, although a Minutemen prequel would be a possibility.

The Last House On the Left (Rogue) is a strong #3 for the weekend. The R-rated remake of Wes Craven’s 1972 twisted classic played out as horror films tend to do – down 5% from Friday-to-Saturday to about $5.3M. LA Times blogger Patrick Goldstein raises an interesting point, suggesting that Last House may have merited an NC-17 rating instead of an R because of a brutal rape scene. James Berardinelli from Reelviews sums up the way Goldstein feels.

This is an uncompromising film. It is unapologetically violent, to the point where those who are upset by screen brutality will have a tough time sitting through it. It features one of the most upsetting rape scenes committed to film. The MPAA’s decision to award an R to The Last House on the Left is yet another example of how flawed the U.S. classification system is. If anything is deserving of an NC-17 for adults-only content, this is it. The violence is not cartoonish or in any way sanitized; it is grim and gut-wrenching. Nothing is spared. Consider, for example, a scene featuring a hand and an in-sink garbage disposal. There’s no need to use your imagination regarding what happens – the movie shows it in bloody detail.

This is the kind of movie that I just cannot pay to see. I like great horror films like The Shining, Carrie, Rosemary’s Baby, George Romero’s Night of the Living Dead (and Zack Snyder’s more recent remake of Dawn of the Dead), Silence of the Lambs, Scream, The Exorcist and Halloween (the original from John Carpenter). I even appreciate the evil genius of the first Saw movie. But enough is enough. When it comes to brutal rape with my popcorn, I’ll take a pass every time. The movie should wrap up its domestic theatrical engagements with something in the $35M range – hopefully, not enough to encourage more of the same.

Everything else played out about the way I reported in my Friday Early Estimates story.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $25M, $7,844 PTA, $25M cume
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $18.07M, $5,004 PTA, $86M cume
3. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $14.65M, $6,105 PTA, $14.65M cume
4. Taken (Fox) – $6.65M, $2,327 PTA, $126.83M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $5.13M, $2,329 PTA, $83.2M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $5.02M, $1,949 PTA, $132.62M cume
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $3.1M, $1,359 PTA, $137.76M cume
8. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $2.9M, $1,537 PTA, $89M cume
9. Coraline (Focus) – $2.65M, $1,502 PTA, $69.14M cume
10. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $2.35M, $1,349 PTA, $2.35M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Meanwhile last weekend’s winner Watchmen staggered to a second Friday of only $5.4M or so, and I am projecting only $15.75M for the 3-day. That marks a 71% drop. Anything over $20M would have been acceptable, but the bottom has fallen out of this movie, and it will now struggle to reach $100M domestic. When the foreign and DVD are added, it may make a small profit, but it will likely be negligible. The superstitious might suggest that Watchmen writer Alan Moore’s alleged curse may be to blame, but the reality is that word-of-mouth has been more negative than for any movie in recent memory.

For Johnson, Race To Witch Mountain marks his all-time #3 opening and his second-best as a lead (trailing The Scorpion King).

ALL-TIME TOP 5 DWAYNE JOHNSON OPENINGS
- not counting his cameo in The Mummy Returns –
1. Get Smart – $38.6M opening
2. The Scorpion King – $36M opening
3. Race To Witch Mountain – $24.25M opening (projected)
4. Be Cool – $23.4M opening
5. The Game Plan – $22.95M opening

Lenny Montana as Luca Brasi in THE GODFATHER (he sleeps with the fishes)

The movie industry has a great tradition when it comes to professional wrestlers in feature films. Lenny Montana played the small but pivotal role of Luca Brasi in Francis Ford Coppola’s 1972 Best Picture winner The Godfather and Andre the Giant had a memorable turn in the classic The Princess Bride in 1987, but Johnson is easily the most bankable wrestler-turned-actor of all time.

ALL-TIME TOP 30 GROSSING MOVIES THAT FEATURE A PRO WRESTLER
- ranked by total domestic box office -
1. The Mummy Returns – Dwayne Johnson – $68.1M opening – $202M cume
2. The Longest Yard – Steve Austin, Goldberg, Kevin Nash, The Great Khali – $47.6M opening – $158.1M cume
3. X-Men – Tyler Mayne – $54.4M opening – $157.3M cume
4. The Godfather – Lenny Montana – $300K opening – $135M cume
5. Troy – Tyler Mayne – $46.8M opening – $133.4M cume
6. Get Smart – $38.6M opening – Dwayne Johnson – $130.3M cume
7. Rocky III – Hulk Hogan – $12.4M opening – $125M cume
8. The Scorpion King – Dwayne Johnson – $36M opening – $91M cume
9. The Game Plan – $22.95M opening – Dwayne Johnson – $90.6M cume
10. Predator – Jesse Ventura – $12M opening – $59.7M cume
11. Halloween (2007) – Tyler Mayne – $26.3M opening – $58.2M cume
12. Be Cool – $23.4M – Dwayne Johnson – opening – $56M cume
13. Blade: Trinity – Triple H – $16M opening – $52.4M cume
14. The Rundown – Dwayne Johnson – $18.5M opening – $47.7M cume
15. Walking Tall – Dwayne Johnson – $15.5M opening – $46.4M cume
16. Gridiron Gang – Dwayne Johnson – $14.4M opening – $38.4M cume
17. The Running Man – Jesse Ventura – $8.1M opening – $38.1M cume
18. The Punisher – Kevin Nash – $13.8M opening – $33.8M cume
19. The Princess Bride - Andre the Giant – $4.4M opening – $30.8M cume
20. Doom – Dwayne Johnson – $35.5M opening – $28.2M cume
21. Spy Hard – Hulk Hogan – $10.4M opening – $27M cume
22. Grindhouse – Vladimir Kozlov – $11.6M opening – $25M cume
23. The Marine – John Cena – $7.1M opening – $18.8M cume
24. No Holds Barred – Hulk Hogan – $5M opening – $16.1M cume
25. Over the Top – Terry Funk – $5.1M opening – $16M cume
26. See No Evil – Kane – $4.5M opening – $15M cume
27. The Comebacks – Stacey Keibler – $5.5M opening – $13.4M cume
28. They Live – Roddy Piper – $4.8M opening – $13M cume
29. The Condemned – Steve Austin – $3.8M opening – $7.3M cume
30. Ed Wood – George Steele – $1.9M opening – $5.9M cume

Andre the Giant in THE PRINCESS BRIDE

If Witch Mountain plays out like The Rock’s last family movie The Game Plan, the picture could reach $95M in the US.

Wes Craven’s The Last House On the Left (Universal), a remake of his own 1972 seminal classic, has met industry expectations with an opening day of $5.3M or so (actually ahead of Watchmen). The tightly-budgeted, R-rated genre pic will wrap up the weekend at #3 with a likely $14.3M or so.

Luc Besson’s mega-hit Taken (Fox) is headed for a dip of only 17% for an impressive $6.5M, good for fourth-place and a new cume of $126.68M. Tyler Perry’s biggest hit ever, Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate), will round out the weekend top five with about $5M pushing its domestic gross to $83M.

Don't worry if you miss MISS MARCH - It's coming to DVD very soon

The other wide release is Miss March (Fox Searchlight), which had straight-to-video written all over it. The movie managed only $750K from 1,742 playdates Friday, and it will crawl to a meager $2M 3-day, barely cracking the weekend top ten.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $6.8M, $2,134 PTA, $6.8M cume
2. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.5.M, $2,291 PTA, $5.5M cume
3. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $5.4M, $1,495 PTA, $73.33M cume
4. Taken (Fox) – $2M, $700 PTA, $122.18M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $1.45M, $658 PTA, $79.52M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $1.4M, $543 PTA, $129M cume
7. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $900,000, $476 PTA, $87M cume
8. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $890,000, $511 PTA, $890,000 cume
9. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $860,000, $377 PTA, $135.52M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $600,000, $339 PTA, $67.12M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $24.25M, $7,609 PTA, $24.25M cume
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $15.75M, $4,362 PTA, $83.68M cume
3. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $14.3M, $5,956 PTA, $14.3M cume
4. Taken (Fox) – $6.5M, $2,274 PTA, $126.68M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $5M, $2,271 PTA, $83.08M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $4.83M, $1,874 PTA, $132.43M cume
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $3.18M, $1,395PTA, $137.84M cume
8. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $2.88M, $1,524 PTA, $89M cume
9. Coraline (Focus) – $2.5M, $1,408 PTA, $69M cume
10. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $2.4M, $1,379 PTA, $2.4M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The Watchmen = Epic fail!

If you haven’t seen The Watchmen yet, I’d urge you to read the graphic novel first. Well, actually, I’d urge you to JUST read the GN. lol.

Watchmen.undecided,confused as superhero film with

very little superhero action.Convoluted story,but overall watchable. My opinion only

I was bored while watching Watchmen

Just got out of Watchmen…. Ouch, would spend the 9 quid on – can’t even find the humour, brain switched off 1 hour into the 3- BIG YAWN

Watchmen, three hours of my life I will never ever get back.

Watchmen was a horrible movie! We went today. My bf goes with me to chick flicks,so I go to”other”. THIS ONE WAS bbaaad! Yuk

Going to watch the watchmen so I can rip it to shreds later

Watchmen – way too much blood, way too many slaughtered people!

For everyone who says, “What’s the point of Twitter,” here’s a real-life application. I was able to watch the word-of-mouth take shape for Zack Snyder’s film adaptation of the classic Alan Moore graphic novel. When projecting box office, I use a multiple to arrive at a weekend estimate. After a $24.5M Friday, it would be fair to expect about a 2.5 multiple for about $61.25M ($24.5 X 2.5 = $61.25M). Instead, that strong Friday resulted in a much softer $55.2M, operating on a 2.25 multiple.

That means that in this new age of Twitter and Facebook and text messaging, word-of-mouth on a movie spreads like wildfire. If a film is bad or challenging or has a bad ending, potential moviegoers are going to know it before opening weekend is over. In fact, a negative reaction from Friday’s ticket buyers can mean fewer admissions on Saturday and Sunday.

As I have written before, I like this movie. Given the densely-plotted source material, Snyder has pulled off something amazing. This is the thinking man’s superhero movie, and the film cannot be enjoyed, or even tolerated, if you check your mind at the theatre door. Watchmen is about ideas. For me, it is a $120M art film that deconstructs the very idea of what a hero is. The film is cold, intellectual, uncompromising and not particularly hopeful. The Dark Knight, ultimately, is about how when everyday citizens are confronted by impossible choices, they do the right thing. In the nihilistic world of Watchmen, everything is gray, uncertain and relative. Anybody who showed up last weekend for a bucket of popcorn and some cheap CGI thrills probably left very disappointed.

Fortunately for Warner Bros (domestic distribution rights), Paramount (foreign distribution rights) and Fox (a profit participant thanks to litigation), the hardcore fans of the graphic novel seem to like the movie. Here are some Tweets from fanboys last Friday and Saturday.

Seeing watchmen again for the second time.

Watchmen, pretty damn good, really enjoyed it. Now to finish reading the graphic novel to get the details and depth of everything

experiencing the post-Watchmen glow.

I am dying to see Watchmen again, soooooooo good!

The big question in Hollywood is, “How much will Watchmen fall this weekend?” When the opening weekend 3-day is this big, even wildly successful movies like Iron Man and The Dark Knight tumble about 50%.

SAMPLING OF SECOND WEEKEND DROPS FOR 2008 BLOCKBUSTERS
Iron Man – down 48%
Hancock – down 49%
The Dark Knight – down 52%
Jumper – down 54%
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor – down 59%
Quantum of Solace – down 60%
The Incredible Hulk – down 60%
Wanted – down 61%
The Day the Earth Stood Still – down 68%
Cloverfield – down 68%
Hellboy II: The Golden Army – down 71%

My best guess is that the encore for Dr. Manhattan and pals will be in the $20M-$23M range, and, if I you pin me down to an exact prediction, I’ll go with $22.1M, which would mark a 60% decline. A 3-day take of less than $20M would be a huge disappointment.

If you happened to see this past weekend’s Saturday Night Live, you saw a tour de force from Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. His opening monologue, which turned into a Fosse-style musical number, was a piece of hilarious self-mockery, and he really got the President’s vocal cadence down for an Incredible Hulk spoof called The Rock Obama. Johnson has gone from pro wrestling superstar to versatile entertainer, and he’s also a full-fledged movie star.

In the fall of 2007, The Rock flexed his box office muscle with Disney’s The Game Plan. The family film featuring Johnson as a football star and playboy-turned-Dad, and, after a $23M opening frame, the movie went on to $90M domestic.

Now Disney is re-booting its popular Witch Mountain movies from the 1970’s – Escape to Witch Mountain in 1975 and Return from Witch Mountain in 1978 – with The Rock, Carla Gugino (Watchmen) and AnnaSophia Robb (Bridge To Terabithia). Tracking with the family crowd, including Moms 25 Plus, is very strong, and I am predicting $22.75M, possibly enough to score a surprise win over Watchmen.

Wes Craven’s R-rated remake of his 1972 classic The Last House On the Left (Universal) looks a bit stronger-than-expected. Despite no real star power, there is room in the marketplace for this kid of gruesome scarefest, and I think the movie could hit $18.2M by Monday morning, good for third place.

The other new wide release is Miss March (Fox Searchlight), a crass R-rated comedy with no star power. To me, the tracking looks very soft, and it looks like it will miss the top 5 altogether with just over $5M.

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 13-15
1. NEW – Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $22.75M
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $22.1M
3. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $18.2M
4. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail (Lionsgate) – $5.7M
5. Taken (Fox) – $5.23M
6. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $5.13M
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $5.07M
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $2.59M
9. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $2.08M
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.07M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s densely written graphic novel tumbled 24% from Friday to Saturday. Granted, midnight shows took a lot of steam out of the movie, but that’s a pretty significant fall given that the Males 25 Plus demo – a key one for this film – were not likely part of the Thursday fanboy crowd and, despite the current unemployment rate, were working on Friday.

Still, Watchmen has posted the all-time #6 opening for an R-rated film.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR AN R-RATED MOVIE
1. The Matrix Reloaded – $91.7M
2. The Passion of the Christ – $83.8M
3. 300 – $70.8M
4. Hannibal – $58M
5. Sex & The City – $57M
6. Watchmen – $55.65M (studio estimate)
7. 8 Mile – $51.2M
8. Wanted – $50.9M
9. The Matrix Revolutions – $48.5M
10. Troy – $46.8M

Hardcore fans of the comic seem satisfied by this relatively faithful adaptation, but a huge swath of the movie-going public doesn’t seem to get it. Watchmen is not a popcorn movie. It is not about characters with super powers (except Dr. Manhattan) who fly around the world trying to save the world from colorful villains. I don’t think that the average 19yo guy and his Friday night date expected to see a movie set in an alternate United States where the Vietnam War was won, Watergate never happens and Nixon has an FDR-like run, the world is on the brink of nuclear annhilation and the U.S.A. is a dystopian mess. Word-of-mouth is mixed at best.

It is possible that Watchmen will finish its run with as little as $135M-$140M. That would put it in the same range as Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony), which passed $133M this weekend. But the Adam Sandler-produced comedy has a reported budget of $26M compared to the $120M budget for the grim tentpole. In the final analysis, Blart won’t have any meaningful revenue overseas while Watchmen has a shot at as much as $200M overseas, but the complex superhero deconstruction yarn will finish well off the $450M worldwide that Snyder’s last movie 300 delivered.

Watchmen is more an exercise of intellectualism than the brute spectacle that Under 25’s have grown accustomed to. This is a movie about ideas that happens to have a bunch of cool special effects. That’s not to say that the marketing is misleading. It’s just that there is no way to properly convey what this movie is really about in :30 and :60 TV spots.

Jeffrey Dean Morgan delivers as The Comedian

All that being said, I love this movie. Snyder and screenwriters David Hayter and Alex Tse have managed to approximate the dense plotting of Moore’s original graphic novel. When characters come to blows, the fight sequences are well-choreographed and the blood and guts on the screen don’t bother me the way it does some. Watchmen is for grown-ups. It has absolutely earned its R rating, and, honestly, the average kid wouldn’t be able to figure it out anyway.

The film provokes an interesting discussion about heroes. Whether they are glowing blue beings with the ability to move matter at their will or elected leaders making decisions for the “common good,” citizens cannot ever take things at face value. The end doesn’t always justify the means, and the means must always be questioned.

Jackie Earle Haley as Kelly Leak and all grown up

The cast here is uniformly good. The standout is Jackie Earle Haley as Rohrschach. After playing Kelly Leak in the original Bad News Bears, he fell off the map. His career was resurrected with a creepy, Oscar-nominated turn in Little Children a few years back, and now he has scored again as the snarling, angry and morally uncompromising Rohrschach. Jeffrey Dean Morgan, best known for his work on Grey’s Anatomy, is the embodiment of cynical evil as The Comedian (and he has a more-than-passing resemblance to Javier Bardem). I also enjoyed Carla Gugino as the original Silk Spectre/Sally Jupiter (and old age makeup in movies continues to improve).

Would Minutemen make a good Watchmen prequel?

March is a solid release frame for Watchmen with spring break coming in the next 6 weeks for high schoolers and college students, but the legs will not be very long for this one. My hunch is that $23M is the best case scenario for second weekend. In the end the movie will likely be profitable when the ancillaries are added, but it’s hard to imagine what a sequel would look like (even if one was attempted). The best bet might be a prequel about the Minutemen.

In other box office news, Tyler Perry continues to add to the haul for his all-time best grossing movie Madea Goes To Jail. The comedy will sell another $8.8M in tickets good for #2 for a new cume of $76.5M. Fox’s long-running French import Taken continues holding strong with $7.45M or so and a new domestic take of $118M, pushing the movie to about $200M worldwide (Luc Besson has got to be thinking sequel here). Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Seartchlight) and Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) will round out the top 5.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $55.65M, $15,413 PTA, $55.65M cume
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $8.8M, $4,091 PTA, $76.5M cume
3. Taken (Fox) – $7.45M, $2,470 PTA, $118.04M cume
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $6.92M, $2,396 PTA, $125.44M cume
5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $4.2M, $1,642 PTA, $133.64M cume
6. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $4.02M, $1,644 PTA, $84.64M cume
7. Coraline (Focus) – $3.31M, $1,691 PTA, $65.68M cume
8. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $3.12M, $1,363 PTA, $38.35M cume
9. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) – $2.75M, $2,183 PTA, $16.79M cume
10. Fired Up (Sony) – $2.6M, $1,446 PTA, $13.36M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The brand new film adaptation of the classic graphic comic Watchmen is a hit of monstrous proportions on its opening weekend, but not everyone loves it. In fact, not only is there a prominent character named Rohrschach (played by Oscar nominee Jackie Earle Haley), the film itself is serving as a Rohrschach Test for critics, fanboys and the broader public.

The Zack Snyder-directed $120M epic started with $4.5M in Thursday midnight business which is outstanding. There was no way for Watchmen to approach the $18.5M midnight start for lat summer’s The Dark Knight. First off, it is March and not the middle of summer blockbuster season. Kids have school. People are working. These are not the lazy days of July when it is easier for many to see a movie at midnight on Thursday, and hit the office late on Friday. The other factor is the movie’s rating. This is an R-rated movie, not PG-13 like The Dark Knight.

Jackie Earle Haley, who played Kelly Leak in the original Bad News Bears, is wearing the Rorschach mask in Watchmen

The Thursday night start for Watchmen was 44% better than the $2.5M midnight shows for director Snyder’s last epic 300 (also rated R). It was also virtually double the $2.3M midnight start for November’s Quantum of Solace (PG-13). Those are much better comparables than The Dark Knight or say last year’s PG-13 rated Twilight, which grabbed a reported $7M midnight preview gross.

Watchmen was spectacular at the box office Friday, and, after consulting with multiple sources, I am projecting a staggering $25.2M (that does include midnight previews) for Friday. That is approximately the 32nd-best opening day in modern box office history, but it is the all-time #12 opening day for a non-sequel.

ALL-TIME TOP 15 OPENING DAYS FOR A NON-SEQUEL
1. Spider-Man – $39.4M
2. Twilight – $35.9M
3. Iron Man – $35.2M
4. Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone – $32.3M
5. The Simpsons Movie – $30.7M
6. I Am Legend – $30M
7. The Da Vinci Code – $28.6M
8. 300 - $28.1M
9. Transformers – $27.8M
10. Sex & The City – $26.7M
11. The Passion of the Christ – $26.5M
12. Watchmen – $25.2M (projected)
13. Planet of the Apes – $24.6M
14. Hulk – $24.2M
15. The Day After Tomorrow – $23.5M

When the numbers get this big, and the movie is this front-loaded, 3-day projections are problematic, and I am revising downward from the $62.5M I published Friday night (my final prediction on published Wednesday was $63M). It’s looking more like $57M as of Saturday morning. Running time is killing this movie. If the number holds, it would still give Watchmen the all-time #5 opening weekend for an R-rated movie, trailing only Matrix Reloaded, Passion of the Christ (which had better source material contrary to what fanboys may believe), Snyder’s 300 and Hannibal.

Still the all-time biggest opening for an R-rated movie

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR AN R-RATED MOVIE
1. The Matrix Reloaded – $91.7M
2. The Passion of the Christ – $83.8M
3. 300 – $70.8M
4. Hannibal – $58M
5. Watchmen – $57M (projected)
6. Sex & The City – $57M
7. 8 Mile – $51.2M
8. Wanted – $50.9M
9. The Matrix Revolutions – $48.5M
10. Troy – $46.8M

One interesting facet of this movie is the fact that three different major studios have a piece of the action. Warner Bros owns domestic distribution rights, Paramount has the foreign and Fox, which won a very public battle over the rights to the movie, is getting 5%-8.5% of gross participation that will be set by the film’s worldwide revenue success. That puts an awful lot of powerful Hollywood types on the same team, working to ensure Warchmen’s success.

Critics are divided about Watchmen as a movie. The movie has a 65% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but the most established critics – what Rotten Tomatoes classifies as the Cream of the Crop – has generated a lower 43% positive reviews. Here’s a sampling from writers that I know and like.

Joe Morgenstern of the Wall Street Journal –
“The reverence is inert, the violence noxious, the mythology murky, the tone grandiose, the texture glutinous. It’s an alternate version of The Incredibles minus the delight.”

Pete Hammond, Hollywood.com -
“A stunning, mind-bending, breathtaking densely-packed motion picture experience.”

David Poland, Movie City News -
“The problem with Watchmen is, in the end, that it is a bit of a big stiff bore for two acts with an improved, but mostly uninspired third act. Look at Watchmen from the back to the front. Do you care about what has happened to any of these characters, except Rorschach, by the time you leave the theater?”

Roger Ebert, Chicago Sun-Times -
“After the revelation of The Dark Knight here is Watchmen, another bold exercise in the liberation of the superhero movie. It’s a compelling visceral film.”

Watchmen author Alan Moore

Obviously, the reviews are all over the board. Although, there’s no question that the writer of the original Watchmen graphic novel, the enigmatic Alan Moore, hates the movie, it’s just as certain that he has not and will never see it. In fact, he put a curse on the whole project.

Watchmen director Zack Snyder

Director Zack Snyder signed on for a gig that proved too tough and too problematic for the likes of brilliant filmmakers like Terry Gilliam (The Fisher King, Twelve Monkeys), Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler, The Fountain) and Paul Greengrass (United 93, The Bourne Ultimatum). Perhaps Alan Moore is right. His book is “inherently unfilmable.” There’s no way to pack the dense details of the brilliant 1986 landmark into a movie – even when it’s 2 hours, 43 minutes long.

I am a huge fan of the graphic novel having read it in college. I deliberately didn’t re-read Watchmen in advance of the movie because I think it needs to be judged as its own individual piece of work. Snyder’s problem all along has been, “How do you make a movie that both satisfies hardcore fans and is accessible enough for people who have never even heard of Watchmen?”

For the time being, the spectacle, the buzz, the fanboy fervor and a pitch-perfect marketing campaign have set the stage for an historic 3-day opening. Once the mainstream audience discovers that Watchmen is more about ideas than it is about heroes with capes, it will be interesting to see how it holds up. For comparison’s sake, 300 fell 53% from its opening weekend of $70.8M, but the drop-off will almost certainly be bigger here.

300 ended up at $210.6M domestic and $456M worldwide, but Watchmen is likely to fall short of those numbers. In fact, whereas 300 finished with a 2.97 multiple (2.97 X $70.8M = total domestic box), Watchmen is more likely to be in the 2.4-2.6 range. That would translate to a, still impressive, final US gross of $137M-$148M. Given that spring break is coming for high schoolers and college kids, I think the movie can reach the upper end of that range.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $25.2M, $6,979 PTA, $25.2M cume
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.5M, $1,162 PTA, $70.2M cume
3. Taken (Fox) – $2.3M, $763 PTA, $112.9M cume
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.05M, $709 PTA, $120.56M cume
5. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $1.3M, $532 PTA, $81.92M cume
6. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $1.1M, $430 PTA, $130.5M cume
7. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $1M, $437 PTA, $36.2M cume
8. Fired Up (Sony) – $920,000, $512 PTA, $11.68M cume
9. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) – $850,000, $666 PTA, $14.85M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $800,000, $408 PTA, $63.1M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $57M, $15,785 PTA, $57M cume
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $9M, $4,184 PTA, $76.7M cume
3. Taken (Fox) – $7.75M, $2,570 PTA, $118.04M cume
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $7.58M, $2,625 PTA, $126.1M cume
5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $4.5M, $1,759 PTA, $133.5M cume
6. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $4.05M, $1,659 PTA, $84.68M cume
7. Coraline (Focus) – $3.5M, $1,787 PTA, $66M cume
8. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) – $3.1M, $2,380 PTA, $17M cume
9. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $3M, $1,310 PTA, $38.5M cume
10. Fired Up (Sony) – $2.75M, $1,520 PTA, $13.5M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.