This, coupled with Kael’s oft-quoted confusion about President Nixon winning re-election in 1972 because “everyone I know voted for McGovern” gives us the impression of a limousine radical.

But what was omitted from “The Age of Movies: Selected Writings of Pauline Kael” would have balanced this portrait; it might even have showed some conservative sentiments on Kael’s part. The omission of her celebrated essay on “Citizen Kane” – done so because of suspicions it was plagiarized – would have revealed her to be in the Ninotchka (a 1939 film that hit Stalinism where it was weakest: in the funny bone) school of anti-communism.

In the essay, she argues that it was the joyless jargon merchants of American Stalinism that destroyed the screwball genre (“the Algonquin group’s own style was lost as their voice blended into the preachy, self-righteous chorus”).

She was even open-minded enough to understand the appeal of such vigilante films as “Walking Tall;” she admitted that such fantasies tapped into fears for her own safety in Warren Court America. Reviewing anti-blacklist “The Way We Were,” she lambasted the film’s message of there being only one alternative to the blacklisters: “ghastly” Stalinism.

Kael herself had briefly flirted with Stalinism while in college, but soon rejected it because of her lifelong aversion to dogma. She tried its leftist alternative of Trotskyism but this, too, failed her. In the new biography, close friends are quoted as seeing her as an “Adlai Stevenson liberal,” in love with the establishment.

Her writings certainly bears this out, but the editing of “Selected Writings” fails to bring her pioneering of political incorrectness to the fore.

Nixon phoned FBI director J. Edgar Hoover asking if “one of the rightwing nuts did it;” Kennedy phoned the CIA asking if one of their anti-Castro exiles fired the shots. Both calmed down, and to some degree accepted that the assassin was a far leftist. But their immediate reactions spread to the populace. The Draft Goldwater Headquarters received so many death threats that they had to shut down. Goldwater supporter and Texas Sen. John Tower had to hide his family in a hotel

Even after Oswald was in custody, the media blamed the right for creating the climate that killed Kennedy. These beliefs had consequences. As Rick Perlstein, in his study of the Goldwater movement in 1964 stated, “Lee Harvey Oswald had cut down Goldwater’s chances as surely as he did John Kennedy.” And conspiracy nuts began their search for a more politically satisfying sniper.

To his credit, author Stephen King does accept that Oswald did it alone.  But in a recent interview with Camelot merchant Chris Matthews on MSNBC, King reverted to the media’s “blame the Right first” school of assassination theories.

King said that right wingers in 1963 created the atmosphere of hate that ultimately killed Kennedy. Even when Matthews reminded him of the central thesis of his new novel “11/22/63,” that a far leftist killed Kennedy, King still stuck to the script.

He dismissed Oswald’s Marxism as merely the “product of a demented mind” and argued that what really motivated Oswald’s life was a desire for fame. King applied the atmosphere of right-wing hate then with now, and feared that once again a president would be struck down.

King claims that he delved deep into Oswald’s life while writing his new book. If true, then he should know Oswald was far from being an activated agent but was a careful planner. Right-wing hate did not propel him into joining the Marines or associate with Japanese communists while in uniform. Nor did a Bircher-like atmosphere frog walk him into defecting to the Soviet Union.

King should have not ventured beyond Oswald the “fame junkie” for every act he performed — attempting to join both the American Communist Party and the Troskyites, passing out pro-Castro leaflets in a naval yard, trying to get a visa into Communist Cuba, planning to hijack a plane to Cuba — was an attempt to elbow his way into history.

If there was an anti-Communist atmosphere that activated him, it centered around Kennedy’s attempts to kill Oswald’s beloved Fidel Castro. In one stroke, Oswald could satisfy his two twin passions: fame and helping the Cuban Revolution.

Most damning to his theory of the hate climate killing Kennedy is in how he portrays Oswald’s richest and best friend in Dallas, George De Mohrenschildt. The wealthy Mohrenschildt, a Castro supporter, encouraged Oswald to kill Kennedy and thus end the assassination attempts. If King wanted to provide fictional support for his beliefs, it might have been better to have Oswald listening to a right-winger preaching violence, and then, robotically, perform his own. But alas,in this case, fiction is more valid than King’s facts.

Maybe it’s the “bombs bursting” in the Star Spangled Banner, or the evening fireworks, or simply that the smell of barbeque in the afternoon reminds me of napalm (actually, it’s either victory, or lighter fluid).

—–

So when the wiener hits the grill, I’m hankering for some Heartbreak Ridge.  I’m weak-kneed for a little Where Eagles Dare.  I’m jonesing for a piece o’ that… Johnny Tremain.  (You try and find a good war movie that starts with a “J.”)

Most of all, I pine for Patton.  Few celluloid moments can top that iconic opening scene for patriotic bliss.  First off, you’ve got that humongous American flag backdrop.  And you’ve got the general himself in full fruit-salad regalia, delivering the greatest pep talk since Henry V’s St. Crispin’s Day speech.

The script, co-written by Francis Ford Coppola, is endlessly quotable.  “No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country.  He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country.”  “Rommel, you magnificent bastard, I read your book!”

And a personal favorite, which Patton cribbed from the French Revolution:  “L’audace, l’audace, toujours l’audace!“  Try saying that next time the wife nags you to get off the couch.

The movie is thick with ironies, not the least of which is that it was intended as an anti-war film.  Patton (the movie and the man) is a true American original, a human Rorschach test.

Liberals see in him a dangerous blow-hard who should be locked up; everybody else just wishes he were alive today and commanding in Afghanistan.  (And then on to Russia!)

Chinese premier Zhou Enlai studied Patton to learn about America’s character before his historic meeting with Richard Nixon.  I like to think that when the commie bastard realized what he was up against, he crapped his Mao suit.

The big topics of the week were Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the presidential fly killing:

The election of Mahmoud was compared by the talk show hosts alternately to the 2000 Presidential and the 2008 Minnesota Senate elections. Fallon claimed that now that his opponent lost, he’ll go on to make a documentary about Global Warming.  David Letterman actually did a joke almost every single night, changing the punchline from Florida voting machines, to Pat Buchanan, Al Gore, Al Franken and Jeb Bush.  Bill Maher used Norm Coleman then criticized his audience for not knowing who he was talking about. The funniest line was Ferguson’s who claimed that Iranian politics have finally gotten as corrupt as Chicago.

Ferguson and Conan get the Writers Over Shoulders Award for making a joke about the fly being eaten like a lizard.  Ferguson speculated that it would be done by Cheney, while Conan put a computer animated tongue in the president’s mouth, snapping the fly off his wrist. Kimmel gets an honorable mention for putting a sound effect of flatulence behind the video so it looked like the President was trying to fan the odor away.

The Most Overused Person as a Punchline goes to Thomas Prusik Parkin, the man who dressed up like his dead mother to collect her social security check. David Letterman accused both Elton John and Barry Manilow of dressing like their mothers on alternate nights. The funniest line he said was that he was so good at dressing up like an old woman that Ashton Kutcher wanted to date him. (He told a similar joke the following night, saying if he wanted to look like an old woman he should have dressed up like Madonna.)

John McCain buying a hybrid was another big story of the week getting attention from Conan, Fallon and Letterman who used it for ageist jokes. Letterman claimed that a Hybrid to McCain would be a horse and buggy while Conan claimed that to McCain, hybrid meant an AM/FM radio. Fallon claimed that seven months ago he couldn’t use a computer, but now he’ll have a hybrid and a twitter account; perhaps he’s the new Benjamin Button.

Jimmy Fallon reached all the way back to an administration that predated his talk show career to deliver the Lamest Attempt at an Obama Joke, claiming that George Bush tried to one-up the new President by killing a fly himself, but it took 20 minutes of clumsy two handed swatting. There were also a couple Bill Clinton as a predator jokes during the week. But the Oldest Presidential Reference goes to Stephen Colbert, who ran Richard Nixon’s quote about Bohemian Grove being “faggy.”

Most of the week’s Obama material centered on the fly. One exception was Jon Stewart who derided the President for trying to fix Health Care in the middle of a war on two fronts and trying to keep the nation from looking like it did in the Grapes of Wrath. But the Funniest Obama Line goes to Conan who claimed that while President Obama was on the phone talking to Phil Jackson and Dan Bylsma, Joe Biden got to talk to Tito Jackson and a real penguin.

The Most Interesting Interview of the week was Governor Mike Huckabee on the Jon Stewart Show. Governor Huckabee very clearly laid out the constitutional pro-life position for the Daily Show audience. Stewart, was defenseless against a rational case for the rights of the unborn, especially since Huckabee’s position was not based in religion, zealotry or misogyny–the straw men Stewart usually attacks. His audience also appeared stunned, as they were not able to perform their trademark trained seal-clap more than a couple times during Stewart’s humiliation.

The Angriest White Man is still Bill Maher, who after a brief flirtation with moderateness, struck back at those of us who congratulated his criticism of Obama. In a remarkably unfunny rant, Maher warned Republicans:

And as far as you folks on the right, who think that we’re now somehow in league: we’re not in league. I was criticizing Obama for not being hard enough on the corporate douchebags you live to defend.  I don’t want to be on your team, pick another kid.

Gee, all we did was compliment him for being fair.

Besides Letterman, perhaps there might have been another threat issued down to a host last week. It seems David wasn’t the only one, who had to apologize to his “sponsors.”

Reagan, Judy Garland, Henry Fonda, Boris Karloff, Gene Kelly

This rare date night out without the various Spawn of Konig, naturally coincided with a gig for me: as my wife was settling into the Director’s Guild Screening Room on W. 57th. 72nd street performing a comedy sketch with TV host extraordinaire Bill Boggs in his live show Talk Show Confidential. The cue for my sketch with Bill is the end of his Richard Nixon anecdote. Boggs tells a very funny story of being a teen-aged intern in the 1960s on a talk show, and the guest is Richard Nixon. Boggs is assigned to Nixon, to make sure Nixon gets to the set on time. En route, Nixon makes a pit stop. Young Boggs is then confronted with his first major, television talk show crisis: how to tell the imposing former Vice President that he’s not only about to go on camera with his fly open, but it’s a “Grand Mal Unzipping,” the kind where your shirt tail is hanging out of the fly.

It’s a funny story, and Boggs tells it well. So, Nixon unzipped, we do our sketch, I hop a cab to the screening – just in time to hear emcee Monica Crowley tell the second funny Nixon anecdote of the evening.

It’s now thirty years post Grand Mal Unzipping. Young Monica Crowley is an intern for former President Nixon at his Saddle River, NJ home / office. Former President Ronald Reagan pays a visit. Monica gets the rare opportunity to be photographed standing in between two presidents. Just before the cameraman shoots, our impetuous young Monica seizes both the opportunity and the aging presidential buttocks, and gooses Nixon and Reagan! The result: a photo of a young, grinning Monica and two very surprised old presidents (or, as Reagan inscribed the photo: “To Monica, a rose between two thorns”).

After the screening, we had a great time hanging out with an actress friend who I’ve known twenty years – but never knew anything about her politics. Turns out she’s a big Reagan fan, and a lifelong Republican. I asked her if she talked politics at auditions or on the set. “Well, I don’t avoid it…But, if I’m in a room full of true believers, what’s the point? I was doing a voice over job last year that had to be rescheduled because I was out of town on the first date they wanted to use me. I was in Minneapolis at the Republican National Convention. The next week at the job, the director was incredulous: ‘Why were you at the Republican Convention? What were you doing there? You mean you’re supporting McCain??’ I said: ‘Okay, let’s just do the work…’”

The documentary, by the way, was very good. I particularly enjoyed the emphasis on how Reagan’s experience negotiating contracts with the studios as president of the Screen Actors Guild directly influenced his negotiating tactics years later with the Soviet Union and the Democratic congress. A couple of things Reagan learned as SAG president: “The purpose of negotiating is to get a deal” and “I’d rather get 80% of what I want then to go off a cliff with my flag flying”.

Ahem. Maybe the current SAG president could learn a thing or two from the old conservative?

And so, with our stomachs bloated with delicious hors d’oeuvres, clutching our gift bags with free Ronald Reagan coffee mugs, our big date night completed, the lovely Bride of Konig and I returned to the Palatial Konig Estates, relieved our brilliant teen-aged daughter of her duties babysitting for her younger brothers, watched the Mets drop another one to the Dodgers, and went to sleep.

Jordana Brewster is reunited with Vin, Paul and Michelle in FAST & FURIOUS

Universal seems to have answered that question by getting its successful street racing franchise back into the fast lane this weekend with Fast & Furious. The movie, which reunites Vin Diesel, Paul Walker, Jordana Brewster and Michelle Rodriguez for the first time since 2001’s original surprise blockbuster, has exploded to a high octane $30.11M or so on Friday and that could mean a $70M opening weekend. That would make it the all-time #1 opening for a car racing movie.

Pixar's beloved CARS will likely have only the second-best opening for an auto racing movie by Monday

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR AUTO RACING MOVIES
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $70M opening (projected)
2. Cars – $60.1M opening
3. 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003) – $50.4M opening
4. Talladega Nights – $47M opening
5. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $40M opening
6. The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift (2006) – $24M opening
7. Speed Racer – $18.5M opening
8. Days of Thunder – $15.5M opening
9. Herbie: Fully Loaded – $12.7M opening
10. Death Race – $12.6M opening

How big is that $30.11M opening day? It is the all-time biggest debut gross for any movie not released in the summer peak (May – July) and the November-December holiday period.

ALL-TIME BIGGEST OPENING DAYS FOR NON-PEAK RELEASES
- non-peak is defined as May thru July & November-December -
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $30.11M opening day (estimated)
2. 300 – $28.1M opening day
3. Passion of the Christ – $26.5M opening day
4. Watchmen – $24.5M opening day
5. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $21.7M opening day

The Fast franchise has an odd history. 2001’s The Fast & The Furious scored a blistering $40M opening weekend and reached $144.5M domestic and over $200M worldwide. Then the enigmatic Diesel decided that he didn’t like the script for the proposed sequel. Boyz n the Hood’s John Singleton took the reigns from Rob Cohen and Walker returned for 2 Fast 2 Furious, which still scorted an impressive $127M in the US sans Diesel. Then in 2006, Universal rebooted without Diesel or Walker with The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift, and the fan base eroded considerably as the poorly-received movie generated only $62.5M after a sluggish $23.9M 3-day start.

Now, the original cast returns with Tokyo Drift director Justin Lin at the helm, and those Under 25 Males are showing up (dragging their girlfriends no doubt), and the reaction across the social networking platform Twitter is very telling. The first thing I noticed. Lots of sellouts and long lines.

• damn fast and furious full till 11
• Standing in line for Fast and Furious earlier show was sold out. I so hope it is worth this.
• Didn’t realize fast and furious would do so much business.
• Just saw Fast & Furious. It was crazazy. The theater was packed and every show was sold out. I loved it!
• Waiting in line to see Fast and Furious. Really long line!
• too many people watching fast and furious tonight!
• is watching monsters vs. aliens, only because Fast and Furious was sold out. :/

As far as instant reaction from the Twitteratti, it seems roughly split 60% positive and 40% negative. Here are some “thumbs up” Tweets.

• Just hopped outta Fast and Furious. Forget 2 and 3, this was the real sequel. Better than you hope it’ll be, I promise.
• new fast and furious = AMAZING
• Fast and Furious 4… wow, what a movie! For boys, that is.
• Fast and Furious 4, great action movie. It’s as good as the first one. SpitBaby gives it 4 of 5 stars.
• Saw Fast and Furious tonight. It was pretty darn good! Lots of American Muscle.

Not everyone agrees however. Some are Twittering their disapproval.

• The ‘Fast and the Furious’ perfectly describes how I would leave that movie.
• just saw the new fast and furious.bad as expected.
• just got home from seeing FAST AND FURIOUS! IT SUCKED!!!
• Fast and Furious: Not bad, but I wouldn’t tell you to pay theatre $ to see it unless you’re a fan of the first movie. Too many jump cuts.
• Fast and Furious: worst movie ever.
• fast and furious was awful. whats the appeal? minus hot guys, crappy cars and chicks making out? no thanks

For Vin Diesel, this weekend’s opening is an all-time best, and you’ve got to wonder who gives him career advice. He walked away from the both 2 Fast 2 Furious and the sequel to the highly lucrative XXX (XXX:State of the Union was ultimately made with Ice Cube as the lead grossing just $26.8M domestic, but it would have certainly performed much better as a Diesel project).

ALL-TIME TOP 5 VIN DIESEL OPENINGS
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $70M opening (projected)
2. XXX – $44.5M opening
3. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $40M
4. The Pacifier – $30.5M opening
5. The Chronicles of Riddick – $24.3M opening

Meanwhile, thanks to the F&F hot wheels, Paul Walker has three $40M+ openings on his resume.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 PAUL WALKER OPENINGS
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $70M opening (projected)
2. 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003) – $50.4M opening
3. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $40M opening
4. Eight Below – $20.1M opening
5. She’s All That – $16M opening

MVA still a MONSTER at the box office - especially in 3-D

Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) continues to be a box office juggernaut as it begins its second weekend. The animated send-up of B-movie sci-fi from the 1950’s continues to be fueled by its 2,075 or so standard Digital 3-D engagements and the added 143 Digital IMAX runs scoring an exceedingly strong $8.9M on Friday, which will likely translate to an estimated $35.6M for the frame and a 10-day cume of almost $108M. That will represent an approximate weekend drop of just 40%, which is impressive given that the opening 3-day was $59.3M.

Possibly the creepiest movie poster ever

The Lionsgate genre pic The Haunting in Connecticut sold another $3.67M in tickets on its second Friday, and it should reach about $10.65M by Monday for a new cume of $38.47M. That would mean a drop of only 54%, very good for a horror flick.

Jason Segal unleashes the crazies on passerby on the Venice Boardwalk in I LOVE YOU, MAN

Meanwhile Knowing (Summit) and I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) will both spend another week in the top five. The Alex Proyas-directed Nicolas Cage vehicle managed $2.67M to start the 3-day, and Knowing may reach $8.69M by Monday. With a new cume of $58.76M, the gang at Summit has a shot to push this one just past $70M in the US. John Hamburg’s Apatow-style comedy with the inspired pairing of Paul Rudd and Jason Segal is also holding strong with an estimated $2.73M in tickets sold on Friday and a weekend target of $8.69M. I Love You, Man could reach $65M domestic before it wraps its theatrical engagements.

The news is not good for the well-reviewed Miramax release Adventureland. Despite a score of 89% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, Greg Mottola’s much-anticipated follow-up to Superbad has stumbled out of the gates with just $2.17M from 1,862 playdates. The weekend gross will likely be in the $6.05M range for a Per Theatre Average of just $3,249.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Fast & Furious (Universal) – $30.11M, $8,088 PTA, $28M cume
2. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.9M, $2,169 PTA, $81.09M cume
3. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $3.67M, $1,345 PTA, $31.36M cume
4. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.73M, $1,052 PTA, $44.17M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) – $2.67M, $805 PTA, $52.74M cume
6. NEW – Adventureland (Miramax) – $2.17M, $1,168 PTA, $2.17M cume
7. Duplicity (Universal) – $1.43M, $571 PTA, $29.5M cume
8. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $970,000, $343 PTA, $56M cume
9. 12 Rounds (Fox) – $850,000, $365 PTA, $7.57M cume
10. Sunshine Cleaning (Overture) – $580,000, $1,211 PTA, $4.05M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Fast & Furious (Universal) – $70M, $20,220 PTA, $70M cume
2. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $35.6M, $8,674 PTA, $107.79M cume
3. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $10.65M, $3,901 PTA, $38.34M cume
4. Knowing (Summit) – $8.69M, $2,616 PTA, $58.76M cume
5. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.69M, $3,342 PTA, $50.12M cume
6. NEW – Adventureland (Miramax) – $6.05M, $3,249 PTA, $6.05M cume
7. Duplicity (Universal) – $4.56M, $1,810 PTA, $32.63M cume
8. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $3.49M, $1,235 PTA, $58.52M cume
9. 12 Rounds (Fox) – $2.7M, $1,158 PTA, $9.42M cume
10. Sunshine Cleaning (Fox) – $2.03M, $4,238 PTA, $5.5M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

The original The Fast & The Furious hit theatres in 2001 under the direction of Rob Cohen who had shown a knack for action with Dragon: The Bruce Lee Story ($35M US cume) and Sly Stallone’s Daylight ($33M US cume) and a savvy feel for bigger-than-life characters in his Golden Globe winning biopic The Rat Pack (which, if you’ve never seen you should put in your Netflix cue and prepare to be amazed by Don Cheadle’s turn as Sammy Davis, Jr.). In tow, he had a 34-year-old Vin Diesel in only his second starring role following the surprise low budget hit Pitch Black ($39M cume) and 28-year-old Paul Walker, who had just starred in Cohen’s forgettable The Skulls. Also in the cast was Jordana Brewster (As the World Turns) and a pre-Lost Michelle Rodriguez, whose most notable credit was a gritty little indie called Girlfight.

Vin Diesel returns for FAST & FURIOUS

The result was box office jet fuel. Seemingly out of nowhere, The Fast & The Furious scored a scalding $40M opening weekend and reached $144.5M domestic and over $200M worldwide. But Diesel, whose signature line in the original movie is “I live my life one quarter of a mile at a time,” didn’t like the script for the sequel (or they wouldn’t pay his asking price depending on who you ask). That led to the 2003 sequel 2 Fast 2 Furious directed by Academy Award nominee John Singleton (Boyz n the Hood) starring Walker along with rapper Tyrese Gibson and Eva Mendes. Despite Diesel’s conspicuous absence, 2 Fast still delivered $127M in the US.

Two years later came the disastrous re-imagining of the franchise with The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift. No Diesel. No Walker. The movie featured Zachery Ty Bryan from TV’s Home Improvement and the very solid Lucas Black, who had just played quarterback Mike Winchell in the film version of Friday Night Lights and as a kid co-starred with Billy Bob Thornton in Sling Blade. The third movie in the franchise “drifted” toward irrelevancy with a very soft $23.9M opening and only $62.5M domestic.

Now, as The Blues Brothers once famously said, “We’re getting the band back together!” Diesel. Walker. The still beautiful Brewster. And, the edgy Rodriguez, who, ironically, has one of the worst driving records in history (a hit-and-run, 2 DUIs and at least 3 speeding tickets including one for 90mph in a 35mph zone). This time, they are under the direction of Tokyo Drift director Justin Lin, and the reviews are less than sparkling (18% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but there are some credible positive notices, including Kirk Honeycutt from the Hollywood Reporter who says, “All four films feature terrific stunts. But Fast & Furious is the first film since the original to be smart about how far to stretch logic without sacrificing the desired macho swagger and revved-up emotions.”

Diesel and Paul Walker - 8 years older

The average street racing fan is unlikely to be a Hollywood Reporter reader, and the PG-13 rating will allow for a flood of teen boys, who have grown up playing video games like Grand Theft Auto, to pour into theatres for some high octane fun. The tracking, especially Males Under 25, looks very strong, and my prediction is for $48M, but I won’t be surprised to see it speed past $50M.

Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) has been performing very well during the week, especially in those communities where kids are off for spring break. I’ll be surprised if MVA dips much more than 40% from its $59.3M opening frame. I’m predicting a $35.4M second weekend, which would mean a spectacular 10-day cume of about $106.7M.

With only two new, wide releases, The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) should hold up better-than-the-average horror movie. I am anticipating about $11.7M, which would mark only a 49% drop. With a new cume of about $40M by Monday, this low budget special will have made back its budget twice over before its done (not to mention ancillary rights).

Nicolas Cage in KNOWING

The latest from Nicolas Cage and directed by Alex Proyas (Dark City, I Robot), is nearing profitability as well. Knowing (Summit), with a reported budget of $50M, is likely to bank another $8.7M over the weekend for a new cume of almost $59M. It is opening decently in foreign markets including $5M+ in Russia.

Director Greg Mottola’s long-awaited follow-up to mega-hit Superbad ($121M US) is the much lower profile Adventureland from Miramax. The reviews are through the roof with an 85% Fresh rating from Rotten Tomatoes, and especially noteworthy is Kenneth Turan of the LA Times who writes, “With a cast that believed in one another and a writer-director who believed he didn’t have to follow up Superbad with SuperEvenBadder, Adventureland is the kind of adventure we could all use more of.”

This is the kind of movie that could surprise because of positive buzz, but with only 1,862 screens, it’s hard to generate an eye-popping number. I’m penciling Adventureland in for $8.1M, which would still be an impressive $4,350 Per Theatre Average.

Also continuing to perform well will be I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount), adding another $7.9M or so (a small drop in the 35%-40% range). It is possible that the John Hamburg buddy comedy could top $50M by Monday.

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR APRIL 3-5
1. NEW – Fast & Furious (Universal) – $48M
2. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $35.4M
3. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $11.7M
4. Knowing (Summit) – $8.6M
5. NEW – Adventureland (Miramax) -$8.1M
6. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $7.9M
7. Duplicity (Universal) – $4.9M
8. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $3.25M
9. 12 Rounds (Fox) – $2.3M
10. Taken (Fox) – $1.4M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

MONSTERS VS. ALIENS towers over previous 3-D releases from Hollywood

If that number holds, and, if anything, they could drift higher as family audiences flood America’s multiplexes, Monsters vs. Aliens will be the all-time third-best opening in the month of March.

Still the all-time March opening weekend champion

ALL-TIME TOP 5 MARCH OPENINGS
1. 300 – $70.8M opening
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $68M opening
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (2009) – $58M opening (projected estimate)
4. Watchmen – $55.2M opening
5. Ice Age – $46.3M opening

But this is more than a conventional 35MM movie. This kind of number sends a message to theatre owners, credit markets and other studios that the all-new Digital 3-D is here to stay. With 40+ major 3-D movies on the way to the marketplace, it was important for MVA to demonstrate the potential of this new technology.

Jeffrey Katzenberg, leading the 3-D charge for the industry

Yes, Dreamworks Animation head Jeffrey Katzenberg wanted more 3-D screens to be ready (he was hoping for at least 1,000 more), but this is a triumph.

As always, I am monitoring the Twitter-verse for instant reactions from movie-goers who have seen the film on opening day. It is very hard to find anyone with a negative reaction.

Kids and I just home from Monsters vs. Aliens 3-D version. WOW, 3-D has come a long way!

Imax + 3-D totally worth it just to watch your kid try to reach out and grab things in mid-air

Did Monsters vs. Alien in 3-D today with the family. My first 3-D movie at a theater, very cool we had a BLAST!

Monsters Vs. Aliens, 8 thumbs up from the family! Great job with the 3-D as well, not cheesy at all unlike 3D movies when I was a kid.

Saw Monsters vs. Aliens in 3-D today. Go see it. It’s freakin’ cool!

The 3-D glasses these days are cool–they look like sunglasses

LOVED LOVED LOVED Monsters vs. Aliens. Fun for grown ups and kids. And I still have the marks on my face from the 3-D glasses. Can you tell?

The 3-D version of Monsters vs. Aliens is presented in modern Digital 3-D. The original 3-D movies of the 1950’s like Bwana Devil, starring Robert Stack, were primitive, but became a sensation. That movie’s tagline was “A Lion in Your Lap, A Lover in Your Arms,” and it was presented using polarized images by Arch Oboler’s production company.

Then Oboler and a former US military 3-D mapmaker developed trioptiscope that allowed images to float off of the screen. They dubbed this Space-Vision, and it required the use of those infamous cardboard glasses with the red and green cellophane lenses. Oboler released a movie called The Bubble in the late 1960’s, which failed to catch on, and then it was renamed and re-released in 1976 as The Fantastic Invasion of Planet Earth. The modest success of the latter version of the movie led to a new generation of filmmakers trying their hand at 3-D. Along came Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D (1982), Jaws 3-D (1983) and Amityville Horror 3-D (1983). Same Space-Vision technology with cardboard glasses and loads of cheap gimmickry.

The monstrous opening weekend for Monsters vs. Aliens easily dwarfs previous 3-D releases including all-time champ Spy Kids 3-D from 2003 (in old-style Space-Vision).

ALL-TIME TOP 13 OPENINGS FOR 3-D MOVIES
- identified with year of release & type of 3-D –
1. Monsters vs. Aliens (2009 – Digital 3-D) – $58M opening (projected estimate)
2. Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over (2003 – Space-Vision 3-D) – $33.4M opening – $111.7M cume
3. Hannah Montana: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (2008 – Digital 3-D) – $31.1M opening – $65.2M cume
4. Beowulf (2007 – Digital 3-D) – $27.5M opening – $82.3M cume
5. Bolt (2008 – Digital 3-D) – $26.2M opening – $114M cume
6. The Polar Express (2004 – Digital 3-D) – $23.3M opening – $180.8M cume
7. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (2009 – Digital 3-D) – $21.2M opening – $51.5M cume
8. Journey To the Center of the Earth (2008 – Digital 3-D) – $21M opening – $101.7M cume
9. Coraline (2009 – Digital 3-D) – $16.8M opening – $73.6M cume
10. Jaws 3-D (1983 – Space-Vision 3-D) – $13.4M opening – $45.5M cume
11. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (2009 – Digital 3-D)- $12.5M opening – $19.1M cume
11. The Adventures of Sharkboy & Lava Girl 3-D (2005) – $12.5M opening – $39.1M cume
13. Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D (1982 – Space-Vision 3-D) – $9.4M opening – $36.7M cume

Based on an opening weekend of this magnitude, Monsters vs. Aliens will chart a course for $190M-$200M in the US. It is possible that it will exceed the $215M scored by last summer’s Kung Fu Panda, also from Dreamworks. The worldwide box office number may top $525M.

Lionsgate is proving that there is always room for a genre pic with a surprising upside surprise for The Haunting in Connecticut. With Oscar nominee Virginia Madsen (Sideways) as the only real name on the marquee, the low budget PG-13 scarefest scored a far-above-expectations $9.6M on opening day to kick off what should be a possible $22.9M weekend. (I would argue that the incredibly creepy poster is responsible for the surprisingly strong debut.)

Summit’s Knowing, directed by Alex Proyas and starring Nicolas Cage, has held up far better-than-expected. Last weekend’s champ added $4.6M on its second Friday, and its 3-day target is $14.4M, enough for third place. That would give the film a 10-day cume of $45.91M.

Jason Segal (left) and Paul Rudd in I LOVE YOU, MAN

The hilarious I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) will probably dip only 30% or so from its opening. The John Hamburg comedy delivered another $4M in ticket sales, and it is #4 and cruising toward a possible $12.2M by Monday morning for a new cume of $36.6M.

Bad news for Tony Gilroy’s Duplicity (Universal), starring Julia Roberts and Clive Owen. The adult comedy/mystery slumped to just $2.3M to start the frame, and it will manage only a fifth-place finish with $7.5M or so. That is a 47% drop and a new domestic take of just over $25M.

Meanwhile, pro wrestler-turned-actor John Cena and former superstar director Renny Harlin (Diehard 2, Cliffhanger) have launched 12 Rounds (Fox), which has failed to ignite much excitement. The action flick managed only a disastrous $1.8M on Friday and is headed for an underwhelming $5M opening.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $16.7M, $4,069 PTA, $16.7M cume
2. NEW – The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $9.6M, $3,520 PTA, $9.6M cume
3. Knowing (Summit) – $4.6M, $1,378 PTA, $36.11M cume
4. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $4M, $1,472 PTA, $28.4M cume
5. Duplicity (Universal) – $2.3M, $895 PTA, $20.4M cume
6. NEW – 12 Rounds (Fox) – $1.8M, $790 PTA, $1.8M cume
7. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $1.5M, $459 PTA, $49.15M cume
8. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $870,000, $370 PTA, $26.7M cume
9. Taken (Fox) – $820,000, $418 PTA, $135.19M cume
10. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $725,000, $361 PTA, $101.26M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $58M, $14,133 PTA, $58M cume
2. NEW – The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $22.9M, $8,380 PTA, $22.9M cume
3. Knowing (Summit) – $14.4M, $4,315 PTA, $45.91M cume
4. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $12.2M, $4,490 PTA, $36.6M cume
5. Duplicity (Universal) – $7.5M, $2,908 PTA, $25.6M cume
6. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $5.3M, $1,580 PTA, $52.9M cume
7. NEW – 12 Rounds (Fox) – $5M, $1,368 PTA, $5M cume
8. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $2.75M, $1,368 PTA, $103.25M cume
9. Taken (Fox) – $2.5M, $1,275 PTA, $137M
10. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $2.48M, $1,102 PTA, $28.32M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Jeffrey Katzenberg - The Pied Piper for Digital 3-D

ALL-TIME WIDEST NON-SUMMER RELEASES
- with summer defined as May 1 – August 30 -
1. 3/27/09 – Monsters Vs. Aliens – 4,104 playdates
2. 11/07/08 – Madagascar 2 – 4,056 playdates
3. 10/01/04 – Shark Tale – 4,016
4. 3/31/06 – Ice Age: The Meltdown – 3,964
5. 3/14/08 – Dr. Suess’ Horton Hears A Who – 3,954

Many of those playdates are multiple screen engagements. In fact, MVA will be on over 7,000 screens. Screen counts are generally treated as “state secrets” at studios. Sony was able to secure a reported 10,000 screens for Spider-Man 3 with its 4,252 playdates back in May of 2007 (that’s an average of 2.35 screens per playdate). The all-time playdate record still belongs to The Dark Knight last July with 4,366, but TDK’s screen count was just over 9,200 (2.1 screens per location). Based on that calculation, Dreamworks/Paramount has on average 1.7 screens at each of its playdates.

THE DARK KNIGHT still holds the record for most playdates

This is a big, broad 93 minute family film, not a long, dark comic book opus (Spider-Man 3 was 139 minutes long and The Dark Knight was 152 minutes). The main reason for MVA’s high screen count is 3-D. Athough when Katzenberg announced Monsters Vs. Aliens, he envisioned as many as 4,000 3-D screens, the economy has not cooperated, slowing digital conversion and limiting the number of 3-D runs. The final count of actual 3-D engagements is an estimated 2,218 (that includes 143 IMAX 3-D runs).

If you have not seen one of the all-new digital 3-D releases, you must first forget about past experiences with 3-D.  Hollywood’s first flirtation was in the 1950’s with movies like House of Wax and Bwana Devil. Then during my high school years, the early 1980’s, 3-D made a brief resurgence with Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D (1982), Jaws 3-D (1983) and Amityville Horror 3-D (1983). The technology hadn’t changed. It was  still cardboard glasses with colored cellophane lenses and loads of cheap gimmickry.

BOX OFFICE FOR 3-D FILMS OF THE 1980’S
Jaws 3-D – $13.4M opening – $45.5M cume
Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D – $9.4M opening – $36.7M cume
Amityville 3-D – $2.3M opening – $6.3M cume

This new 3-D technology is very different. It is made possible by digital presentation along with Real-D 3-D added. The cost of converting an individual theatre to 3-D is about $100,000 per screen. That includes digital projection, the most expensive piece at $75,000, the Real-D system, the special screen required and all installation. When Jeffrey Katzenberg planted his 3-D blockbuster Monsters Vs. Aliens on the release calendar two years ago, he could not have anticipated the worldwide economic meltdown.

Today's 3-D experience is very different from the 50's

Instead of exhibitors frantically ramping up digital conversion to show Monsters Vs. Aliens on as many 3-D screens as possible, the frozen credit markets stifled progress. Theatre chains and independent theatres have had trouble securing the financing to undertake conversions, and it is very uphill, even with distributors offering to pay a “virtiual print fee” to help cover the costs.

Dreamworks isn’t the only studio with a lot riding on the success of Monsters Vs. Aliens. Disney/Pixar’s next film Up is in 3-D, then there’s the Robert Zemeckis 3-D version of A Christmas Carol for the holidays, and in December, James Cameron’s Avatar, his first major wide release since Titanic. There are over 40 major 3-D movies in the pipeline right now. If Monsters Vs. Aliens scores big, it will be a strong incentive for theatre-owners to convert more theatres to digital.

If you are taking the kids to see MVA this weekend, be prepared for a $2-$3.50 upcharge. It may seem outrageous, but soon after you settle into your seat, you will realize that it is worth the extra couple of bucks. Digital 3-D is truly spectacular, and not in a gimmicky way. You just feel like you are in a different world. You’ll forget you’re wearing the stylish new 3-D glasses, and you can take part in what I think is a major innovation for the industry.

Reviews for Monsters Vs. Aliens are outstanding (73% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), and the pre-opening tracking is now sizzling. Given that there is an upcharge on 3-D and a bigger upcharge on 3-D IMAX, I think MVA will beat the $50M-$55M industry expectation. I believe this one will get past $60M by Monday, and, with Easter in two weeks and spring break taking place around the country for school kids, this picture has a real shot at $200M domestic and could surpass Kung Fu Panda’s $215M. Worldwide, the cutting edge animated movie will likely exceed $600M.

The new Lionsgate genre pic The Haunting in Connecticut seems destined for mid-teens and a distant second, although word-of-mouth for I Love You Man is very good, and Dreamworks has an outside shot to finish 1-2. The Nic Cage sci-fi thriller Knowing (Summit) is likely to dip more than 50%, while the entertaining Julia Roberts-Clive Owen comedy/mystery Duplicity (Universal) seems as though it will hold more strongly, possibly down just 30%-35% from opening weekend for a second top five finish.

FINAL BOX OFFICE FORECAST FOR MARCH 27-29
1. NEW – Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $60.64M
2. NEW – The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $14.6M
3. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $12M
4. Knowing (Summit) – $11.8M
5. Duplicity (Universal) – $9.67M
6. NEW – 12 Rounds (Fox) – $8.1M
7. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $7.14M
8. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $2.58M
9. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $2.56M
10. Taken (Fox) – $1.94M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

As a production company, Summit is responsible for some monster hits, including commercially and/or artistically successful films like Once (Oscar nominee for Best Picture), American Pie ($102..5M domestic), Memento (Oscar nominee for Best Original Screenplay: Chris Nolan), Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($186.3M domestic) and In the Valley of Ellah (Tommy Lee Jones nominated for Best Actor). But as a distributor, they got off to a slow start.

SUMMIT RELEASES
- in sequential order -
11/9/07 – P2 – $4M cume
2/29/08 – Penelope – $10M cume
3/14/08 – Never Back Down – $24.8M cume
8/15/08 – Fly Me To the Moon – $13.2M cume
10/17/08 – Sex Drive – $8.4M cume
11/21/08 – Twilight – $191.3M cume
2/6/09 – Push – $30.9M cume
3/20/09 – Knowing – $24.8M opening – $55M-$60M projected cume

As I wrote Friday, I think that word-of-mouth is weak for Knowing, but the movie held up pretty well over opening weekend. It is definitely helped by it’s PG-13 rating, its appeal to Males Under 25 (especially Under 17’s), and its similarity to Cage’s National Treasure franchise.

Meanwhile, I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) ticked up 8% on Saturday to about $6.8M, and it will have banked about $18M by Monday morning. That is on par with Paul Rudd’s Role Models ($19.1M opening) and Jason Segal’s Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($17.7M opening). I’m sticking with $65M-$70M as my projection for domestic box office for this very funny movie that happens to have a very good heart.

I really wonder about the R-rating for I Love You, Man. It is a very, very soft R. There is no nudity or sex (although there are references to oral sex in particular), and it doesn’t roll up a high count of F-bombs. It seems to me that the ratings board was hard on this one, and a PG-13 rating could have meant an additional $5M-$8M (at least) on opening weekend.

DUPLICITY is Julia Roberts' first feature lead since 2003's MONA LISA SMILE

The other new wide release is Duplicity (Universal), starring Julia Roberts and Clive Owen. This is a very smart, densely-plotted, stylish-looking movie for grown-ups. Writer/director Tony Gilroy is among the best screenwriters in town with all three Jason Bourne movies on his resume along with the legal thriller Michael Clayton, nominated for 7 Academy Awards.

With Females 25 Plus as its most important demo, the film got a big 27% Saturday bump to almost $6M. I saw the movie Saturday night, and it was about 60% women with lots of women in pairs and groups. That is a very good sign for future weeks since Females 25 Plus are never in a rush to see a movie on opening weekend. The audience I was in was mesmerized and laughed in all the right places, but overall, the CinemaScore exit survey was only a C. I still belive that, after a $14.4M third-place finish, Duplicity will get to the $45M-$50M range in the US.

Not strong enough to hold an audience for weekend #2 of RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN

Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) is not holding well at all, dipping to $13M for the weekend. A 46% second weekend drop spells an early end for the new one starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. It is just not especially well-liked, and Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks Animation) will destroy it next weekend.

Sorry Rohrschach, WATCHMEN is completely burned out

Finally, Watchmen (Warner Bros) suffered a second consecutive disastrous 3-day, down another 62% to $6.7M for a 17-day cume of $98M. Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s classic graphic novel is unlikely to reach much past $110M in the US, and with a soft foreign performance as well, it will struggle to reach any real profitability.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $24.81M, $7,447 PTA, $24.81M cume
2. NEW – I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $18M, $6,640 PTA, $18M cume
3. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $14.4M, $5,595 PTA, $14.4M cume
4. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $13M, $4,080 PTA, $44.71M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $6.72M, $1,916 PTA, $98M cume
6. The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.92M, $2,465 PTA, $24.04M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $4.4M, $1,654 PTA, $133.43M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.7M, $1,306 PTA, $137.2M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.51M, $1,368 PTA, $87.2M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.14M, $1,498 PTA, $72.8M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.