This weekend’s predictions and revenue results go as follows:

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part One ($39 million, Fri-Sun) ($53 million, Wed-Sun) – This blockbuster’s inevitable second-week drop falls in line with previous “Twilight” entries. The film still holds its “event” feel just enough to fight off all the newcomers.

2. The Muppets ($37 million, Fri-Sun) ($51 million, Wed-Sun) - This film has had top-notch marketing and is looking at a “Smurfs”-like opening for its efforts. Numerous family films are in the marketplace this week and will pull a few numbers away. Still, the film has a rare appeal for both younger and older audiences that will factor into the hunt for the weekend crown.

3. Arthur Christmas ($17 million, Fri-Sun) ($25 million, Wed-Sun) - Holiday wishes. The film will get a healthy boost off its Christmas themes. Despite facing off with “The Muppets,” we predict this project still pulls a healthy mid-range opening.

4. Happy Feet Two ($16 million, Fri-Sun) ($23.4 million, Wed-Sun) – This animated sequel opened way under its original desired take, and audience ratings continue to fall. It’s quickly becoming a financial disaster. Falling victim to higher-rated family fare won’t help things this weekend either.

5. Puss In Boots ($10 million, Fri-Sun) ($13.8 million, Wed-Sun) – With “Happy Feet Two” bleeding numbers, this one picks up a nice share of them to post another solid weekend hold. “Jack and Jill” looms here though and will take the spot if the film dips even slightly.

Bonus Picks:

“Hugo” will open around $8 million (Fri-Sat) and $11.2 million (Wed-Sun). “The Descendants” will pull in $4 million this weekend.

That’s how Sensei sees it, but what about you?

Our predicted box-office and revenue rankings:

1. Contagion ($25 million) – Outside of a precious few, almost every other film out this weekend is either tanking or disappointing. That gives “Contagion” a solid chance on its 3100+ screens to overcome actor Matt Damon’s recent box office troubles and take the top spot. Let’s be clear though, if “Warrior” was on as many screens it would win the weekend. 

Like some grim tribal ritual whose original meaning is lost in the mists of time, I will most probably sit down in front of the tube at the appointed hour, and brace myself for the onslaught of awkward acceptance speeches, corny jokes, and interminable dance numbers (please, God, no dance numbers!).

The experts agree there are two main contenders for Best Picture.  (What would we do without experts?)  One is a movie about a peaceful, idyllic land invaded by an evil military force trying to steal their resources.  The other one is called Avatar.

The struggle between Avatar and The Hurt Locker has gone back and forth.  Avatar was an early favorite, but Hurt Locker seems to have enjoyed a late General Petraeus-like surge.

Then in the final days, an ugly controversy struck Hurt Locker as one of its producers had the gall to ask people to vote for his movie.  Imagine that!  Doesn’t he know that Hollywood is a respectable place where aggressive self-promotion and crass commercialism are strictly off-limits?

Incidentally, have you noticed there are virtually no children in the world of Avatar?  It’s kind of like Beverly Hills.  Apparently there is a unique species on Pandora that takes care of the Na’vi children so the adults can spend all their time riding air-dragons and chasing blue tail.  This child-caring species is known as the Nan’ni.

Picking Oscar winners is one way to make the ceremonies tolerable.  (Another is drinking heavily.)  Not to brag or anything, but I almost always win my Oscar party pools.  For some inexplicable reason, I don’t get invited to Oscar parties anymore.

Since nobody else here at Big Hollywood has taken up the baton, to me is left the thankless task of making Oscar predictions.  Adopt them at your own risk.  (My lawyer made me add that.)

Best Picture

Probable winner:  toss-up between Avatar and The Hurt Locker

Should win:  toss-up between Up and Inglourious Basterds [sic]

Notes:  This year ten films are nominated for Best Picture, and a new European-style runoff voting system is being implemented.  Some say Inglourious Basterds is a dark-horse contender (gloury hallelujah).  But it’s anybody’s guess which will win.  If I had to choose, I’d say Hurt Locker is a lock.  Or Avatar.

Best Director

Probable winner:  Kathryn Bigelow

Should win:  Quentin Tarantino

Notes:  Tarantino is the most consistently compelling director working today.  His films are must-sees by any cinephile.  But Bigelow will be rewarded for making the first Iraq War movie whose total box office exceeded the sticker price of a Buick.

Best Actress

Probable winner:  Sandra Bullock

Should win:  Sandra Bullock

Notes:  If Bullock doesn’t win, the entire Bible Belt will unfasten itself and horsewhip Hollywood.  It might be worth it just to see Ari Emanuel try to hug it out with Baltimore Ravens tackle Michael Oher.

Best Actor

Probable winner:  Jeff Bridges

Should win:  Jeff Bridges

Notes:  Long overdue.  One word (plus a definite article):  “The Dude.”

Best Supporting Actress

Probable winner:  Mo’Nique

Should win:  See above

Notes:  Having a name punctuated like the Na’vi doesn’t hurt.

Best Supporting Actor

Probable winner:  Christoph Waltz

Should win:  See above

Notes:  Christopher Plummer is a sentimental dark-horse candidate.  Can you believe it’s Plummer’s first-ever nomination?  Unfortunately for him, the winner will have one less syllable in his first name.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Probable winner:  Up in the Air

Should win:  In the Loop

Notes:  In the Loop is the best comedy of 2009, a political (and really NSFW) movie that even a right-winger could love.  It deserves its very own post on BH.  Maybe I’ll do one later, if the clamor is loud enough.

Best Original Screenplay

Probable winner:  toss-up between The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds (probably Hurt Locker; I just can’t bring myself to acknowledge that)

Should win:  toss-up between Inglourious Basterds and Up

Notes:  Many moons ago, I was the first person (other than Quentin) to clap eyes on Tarantino’s script for Pulp Fiction.  He wouldn’t let me read it, but I saw the storied stack of paper on his coffee table.  Buy me a beer and I’ll tell you the whole story.

Best Animated Feature

Probable winner:  Up

Should win:  See above

Notes:  I haven’t seen The Book of Kells, which hasn’t been released in the U.S. yet.  It looks amazing, however.

Best Cinematography

Probable winner:  The Hurt Locker

Should win:  Inglourious Basterds

Notes:  Are we sick of the faux-documentary style yet?

Best Editing

Probable winner:  The Hurt Locker

Should win:  District 9

Notes:  I’d pick Inglourious Basterds here, but it should have been shortened by about 15 minutes (like virtually every Tarantino film since Pulp Fiction).

Best Art Direction

Probable winner:  Avatar

Should win:  Avatar

Notes:  Some would say the eye candy was the only good thing about Avatar.  Some would be right.

Best Original Score

Probable winner:  Up

Should win:  Up

Notes:  Up’s composer, Michael Giacchino, also scores Lost.  That’s enough  for him to win my vote, right there.  (Even though the temple thing is really bugging me this season — but that isn’t his fault.)

Best Foreign Language Film

Probable winner:  The White Ribbon

Should win:  I don’t know, didn’t see enough of them to say.  (Whew, that felt good to get off my chest!)

Notes:  The White Ribbon is in black and white.  It should be a lock.

Best Documentary Feature

Probable winner:  Since I’ve got a documentary coming out this year, I’m going to steer well clear of this one.  (Psst, The Cove will win.)

For those of you wagering on the outcomes, here are my predictions for the rest of the categories.  Just so you know which ones to avoid.

Costumes: The Young Victoria

Makeup:  Star Trek

Visual Effects:  Avatar

Sound Mixing:  Avatar

Sound Editing:  The Hurt Locker

Song:  The Weary Kind (Crazy Heart)

Animated Short:  A Matter of Loaf and Death

Documentary Short:  The Last Truck:  Closing of a GM Plant

Live Action Short:  The Door

So, who do you think will win?

Quatrain 3 Century XMII (The Vice President)

Then came in the wild stories. The tall of the truth will be at full ebb. Laughter from high rooms of the House of White walls. Quash factus, push out all that matters in truth. Rove on in the snicker. Wash away all the real and only then the Byden will spin the tallest tales and really shovel the crap.

Quatrain 24 Century XXMI (Obama’s world tour)

Flying in the largest, with the peon scribes of the one sided tablets, the high man launches a mighty wind whilst bowing down to the shorty.

Quatrain 24 Century XXMXX (Amnesty for Illegal Aliens)

Launched from the pants of the new elder, the ones who come with the coyotes will be made to taketh all the jobs that  Amerigo man needeth.  The poor hardworking fathers who needeth work shall scream at the depot of homes: “Oh please to amscray!”

Quatrain 4 Century XXXX (Gun Control)

Whenst the worry comes from the bad unstable men bearing arms, it leadeth always to abstract from the lawful man the right to protect his children and his land. Listen all to the Second Rule. Now comes the time for you to runneth, and for me to reloadeth  … for ye best not burgle my bitchin’ pad.

Quatrain 4 Century XIII (More Joe Biden)

Being more apt to be found in the hall of elks, on the 7th days eve, in a green suit of leisure with white shoes pulling a draft, slapping backs and yacking it up; the second in charge of the great nation yet pulls at our legs, and leaves us all to beg for more spirits to quell our hysteria. Winnebago Man cometh.

Quatrain 4 Century XIV (GM, Ford and Chrysler)

The carriages of thin metal turned to rot, as the eastern man copied to the better. The leaders of the governors gave them the gold and they tossed it into the bottomless cavern. A union of men folded their arms and said they were on their break.

Quatrain 43 Century XVIII (Hollywood strikes and pending strikes)

The writers struck the blow that sent the small man packing, whence the ones from the stage argued among themselves and remained deaf to the sufferings of the city of the angels. Powerless and laughed at, these selfish ones will even suggest a strike. Tone deaf to the scene, say they: screw the below-the-line schmucks.

Quatrain 35 Century XVII (Over spenders and debtors)

A bag of Coach for my lady, a table of teak for the yard, think not of smalling your bills you tool, just put it all on the card.

Quatrain 5 Century X (Screen Actors Guild)

The ones of the production howl the gut of their laughter whence come the divided group of bickering knaves. Short in the cranium is their negotiating skills, whence the camp that demands is at odds with itself. A child would sayeth “Duh”..

Quatrain 25 Century I (Left Wing Blog Trolls)

The pages from the left, send forth the Trolls at a meager pay, to rip the truth from the knowing ones. But lo, whence they toy with Nolt’s Big Wood, their flim flam gets slapped more than Shemp. Can I get an en-how?

Quatrain 13 Century X (PDA devices)

The modern times shall bringeth forth the small tap-tap-tap on impossible keys with the strange curtailment of words shortened to idiocy by the one named Roflmao. He shall anounce his strange land over and over, always ending his scribe declaring that he’d been sent from the land of black berries. The iphonians shall scoff and cling to their orchard’s rad apps.

Quatrain 224 Century XXI (Tammy Bruce on Eminem)

The one who knows of the smarter sex, and has proudly declared the equality, shows M and M to be nothing but a thug. Shaming a mighty woman in a vile way, he is shamefully ignored by the false leaders of these women. Tammy of the Bruce tore him a ripe new one.

Quatrain 45 Century X (Al Gore)

The cross of coal feetprint has been borne by the one with the locking box. He smiles through the guilt of an overflowing castle replete with bidets. He dictates the Spartan life, but leads a lush one. My strange mystical vision of him using those bidets makes me want to lose my freaking lunch.

Quatrain 24 Century XXMXX (Barney Frank)

He talks to us with authority, high from the hill to say that all must own a home, no matter the lack of any purse. Whence the debacle comes, he points the finger at others in false witness. We then ask: Barney, Is it Wabbit season or Duck season?

He is a classically-trained stage actor, who has starred in heavyweight UK productions of Romeo and Juliet, Henry V, Amadeus and The Dresser, was somehow overlooked by both Hollywood Foreign Press and Oscar voters when he starred as Tony Blair in 2006’s The Queen. (He was outshined by Helen Mirren, who won every acting prize imaginable). This year, he is in the shadow of Frank Langella’s towering portrayal of President Richard Nixon in Frost/Nixon.

As an aside, The Queen was the second in screenwriter Peter Morgan’s Tony Blair trilogy. The first film was called The Deal for British television and tells the story of the rivalry between Blair and current British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. (This is a great title to put in your Netflix or Blockbuster cue.) The final film will be called The Special Relationship, which will focus on the intimate friendship between the British PM and President Bill Clinton between 1997-2000. Sheen has signed on, but there is no word on who will play Clinton. Morgan says the idea for the third film began to germinate when he heard that Blair and Clinton were alone together when Vice President Al Gore conceded the 2000 election.

In the meantime, Sheen will almost certainly have the #1 movie in America this weekend with Underworld: Rise of the Lycans. This is the third Underworld movie, but it is a prequel set in the dark ages with Sheen as Lucien, a young werewolf, who leads a war against Bill Nighy as Viktor, the leader of the vampire race.

2003’s Underworld, directed by Len Wiseman, opened to $21.75M ($52M cume) and Underworld: Evolution improved to a $26.85M opening in 2006 on its way to $62M domestic. But Rise of the Lycans is an origins story and will reportedly not include the sexy, black leather-clad Selene (Kate Beckinsale), so the 3-day could be a bit softer than the last outing. I am predicting a possible $24.34M.

Sheen and Beckinsale were a longstanding couple prior to shooting the original Underworld, and they have a daughter together, but the actress left him for director Wiseman during what must have been a tumultuous shoot. Wiseman and Beckinsale were married in 2004, and teamed up for Underworld: Evolution, in which Sheen’s Lucien character was only seen in flashbacks. Now, Patrick Tatopoulos has stepped in as director on Underworld 3 sans Beckinsale.

Meanwhile, Frost/Nixon goes wider, but it just hasn’t quite clicked with softer-than-expected Per Theatre Averages over the holidays. The Ron Howard-directed biopic with absolutely immaculate reviews could reach $3.35M with a PTA of $4,200 or so. That could make it the fourteenth-best grossing movie of the 3-day.

A fair number of bloggers questioned my prediction last week that Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) would win the MLK weekend, but the tracking was incredibly solid with Males Under 25, which is a big money demo. With no direct competition, this big dumb comedy should hold up pretty well and could dip a mere 41% for a $17M 3-day, enough for second place.

Two Warner Bros releases will battle for third, but I am giving Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino a slight edge over its new fantasy film Inkheart. Torino could ride Oscar attention to another $13.5M, but Iain Softley’s new film based on Cornelia Funke’s novel of the same name has met with lukewarm reviews (46% Fresh as of Wednesday night) and doesn’t show much traction with audiences in industry tracking. That could mean a fourth place finish with a possible $13.2M.

I am anticipating that the live action family film Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) will likely hold well with about $10.5M to round out the top five. Emma Roberts, from Nickelodeon’s Unfabulous and the 2007 film version of Nancy Drew ($25.6M domestic), and Jake T. Austin, presently starring in Disney Channel’s Wizards of Waverly Place, have a decent little hit for their resumes with a possible $35M in the bank after ten days.

Three Oscar nominees will expand this weekend, and they will show nice increases. Fox Searchlight’s Slumdog Millionaire expands from 601 to just over 1,000 playdates, and it may see a 52% increase from last weekend for about $8.9M. Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight), featuring Mickey Rourke’s career game-changing performance, adds about 365 screens, and I think it could add $4.5M, which would mean a Per Theatre Average of $10K. Finally, Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) widens to 800 or so locations, and its PTA could be something in the $5,500 range for a possible $4.4M.

FINAL WEEKEND 3-DAY PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 23-25
1. NEW – Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) – $24.34M
2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $17M
3. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $13.5M
4. NEW – Inkheart (Warner Bros) – $13.2M
5. Hotel For Dogs (Paramount) – $10.5M
6. My Bloody Valentine 3D (Lionsgate) – $9.9M
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $8.9M
8. Notorious (Fox Searchlight) – $8.25M
9. Bride Wars (Fox) – $5.85M
10. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $4.75M
11. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $4.5M
12. Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $4.4M
13. The Unborn (Universal) – $3.5M
14. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $3.35M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.