The duo re-team for “Young Adult,” and while it’s only been four years since “Juno” struck sleeper movie gold, it’s clear the filmmakers used that time wisely.

“Young Adult” lacks the preciousness that nearly derailed “Juno,” and the movie spotlights a lead character you’d rather slug than give a tender embrace. That smacks of both confidence and daring, but Reitman and Cody can’t deliver a third act worthy of their otherwise biting dark comedy.

Charlize Theron is Mavis, a former prop queen and young adult fiction writer who long ago fled her small-small town for life in the Twin Cities. When Mavis learns her old beau Buddy (Patrick Wilson) just became a father, she snaps. She returns home determined to win him back, not caring that he’s already married and a new pappy.

Why? We’re not sure at first, and frankly Cody’s script isn’t willing to fill in all the blanks.

Mavis quickly insinuates herself back into Buddy’s life. He’s oblivious to her plans, part of his aw shucks appeal that likely lured Mavis to him back in the proverbial day. Even Buddy’s wife (Elizabeth Reaser) doesn’t feel threatened by Mavis’s return.

Wrong move. Mavis is like a shark swimming in bloody water, and she won’t stop until Buddy is hers once more.

Mavis confesses her plans to a former high school classmate named Matt (comedian Patton Oswalt), a physically challenged nerd simultaneously repelled and attracted by Mavis’ company.

Both Theron and Oswalt deliver performances that should have Oscar voters checking their ballots twice in good Santa Claus fashion. Theron proved she could go ugly in “Monster,” but there’s something even worse about a woman who seems to have it all but is hell bent on taking everything from a happily married man.

Mavis ends up melting down at the worst possible time, and it’s here where a redemptive arc – or something critical – seems in order. But “Young Adult” grinds to an abrupt halt longer before any bigger purpose becomes clear.

Dark comedies are the trickiest to pull off, and it’s clear Reitman and Cody nearly achieved their goal with “Young Adult.” Maybe a little more growing up is in order between the talented pair.

—–

What’s to Like: Charlie Hunnam and Patrick Wilson, two of the film’s stars, have done solid work before. Hunnam was great in the short-lived sitcom “Undeclared” and Wilson has appeared in a few strong films.

What’s to Dislike: Other than a few solid cast members, there’s little reason to see this movie. The trailer seems to reveal a great deal of the plot and strongly hints at an anti-Christian message. Even the dialogue is terrible (i.e. “You have a sexy mouth”).  If this film is as heavy-handed as the trailer, this film could be atrocious.

IMDB Synopsis: “A thriller in which a battle of philosophies between a fundamentalist Christian and an atheist escalates into a lethal battle of wills. Ultimately, as a test of faith, or lack of it, the believer forces the non-believer onto the ledge of a tall building. He then has one hour to make a choice between his own life and someone else’s. Without faith in an afterlife, will he be capable of such a sacrifice?”

The Verdict: I don’t see any reason to get excited for “The Ledge.” It could be better than the trailer looks but usually trailers are better than the movie. Not the other way around.

After Aniston’s ill-advised political posturing, Bill O’Reilly picked up on the quote and riffed off it on his FoxNews show.  Key quote:

Aniston can hire a battery of people to help her, but she cannot hire a dad, OK? And Dads bring a psychology to children that is, in this society, I believe, underemphasized. I think men get hosed all day long in the parental arena.

This is, of course, right on the money.  Since the right to abort a fetus was dubbed “a woman’s right to choose,” feminists, the welfare state, and deadbeat dads across America have done their level best to marginalize the role a father plays in a child’s life.  And finally, in 2010, Jennifer Aniston proclaims that men are officially unnecessary for child rearing.

So, Aniston billed the Switch as a tale of 21st Century girl power and was rewarded with nightmare-ish press from America’s number one cable news show.  Lo and behold, the movie takes an abysmal seventh place at its opening weekend box office behind “Julia Roberts Eats Gelato on a Park Bench” as well as movies called “Lottery Ticket” and “Vampire Sucks” which I first heard of just now.

**MAJOR SPOILERS AHEAD**

Before we go any further, I’d like to suggest you stop reading this post right now because I am about to give away the plot of one of the best films of the year.  No kidding.  But if you need your culture war fix, read on.

Kassie, played by Aniston, is a successful, man-less career woman whose child-bearing years are numbered.  So, she decides to do what any 21st century progressive feminist would do and get artificially inseminated, bringing another child into the world who won’t get the benefit of the unique qualities only a father can provide.  She plans to do so at a soirée celebrating this act of supreme narcissism.  So far it sounds like required viewing for new NOW membership.  But not so fast…

At the party, we first meet the sperm-donating hunk Roland (played by the talented Patrick Wilson), donning a ridiculous Viking helmet.  Meanwhile, the doctor who will perform the insemination is preparing for the procedure by partying as hard as anyone.  Then comes the Switch’s riotous kid-humps-a-pie-iconic scene where Aniston’s jealous best friend Wally (a top-notch Jason Bateman) switches The Viking’s semen with his own.  The switch is made unbeknownst to Kassie (and even Wally, who was inebriated at the time), and the end result is Sebastian (played unforgettably by Thomas Robinson).  Later on we’ll learn that instead of taking after the upbeat Adonis Roland, Sebastian is the spitting image of hyper-analytical, hyper-cynical, hand-wringer Wally.  By the end of the party it’s clear the single-mom getting artificially inseminated idea is being mocked.  Here’s more proof:

Yup, Ms. Aniston, it’s satire, and the joke’s on feministas like you.

Aniston moves away and years later she returns for the second act.  It’s in this act that we learn the film isn’t about feminism at all, and it isn’t even about Kassie.  The Switch ultimately is about the relationship that develops between Wally and his biological son Sebastian who he’s just now meeting for the first time at age seven.  Their union is blissful; the kindred spirits fill obvious voids in each others’ lives, and contrary to everything you’re taught in college about fathers, Sebastian needs Wally.  For example, Sebastian begins to gravitate towards his new adult male role model, not his mother, when he’s getting bullied at school.

In the final act, Wally drunkenly stumbles to his friend Leonard’s house at 4am, miserable after finally spilling the beans about the switch to Kassie and fearing he’s lost her and Sebastian forever.  Leonard, played by a very funny Jeff Goldblum, implores him to “go home.”  To that Wally says, “they are my home.”

As you could guess by now, the traditional family is united in the end and it’s smiles all around.

I saw the Switch against my will.  Between Aniston’s insistence this was a film that was culturally relevant in it’s rejection of the traditional family and an ad campaign that centered on billboards of Jason Bateman staring into a cup of male ejaculate, I came into it expecting something akin to an Enhanced Interrogation Technique.  As it turns out, the Switch has a clever plot executed with brisk pacing, complete with memorable performances, and an optimism in the traditional family structure that rises above the chaos of 21st century progressive foolishness.

Aniston’s assessment that the film was a revelation about how men are unnecessary was 180-degrees off the mark.  It’s as if she didn’t see the movie herself.  And that’s sad, not because she cost the film money, but because she deterred a lot of people from a real 21st century novelty: a deep and deeply funny movie-going experience.

Sixteen of the top 20 box office earners have either a G or PG rating which should be a clue that R rated films ( “Titanic” being the exception) don’t do as well yet studios continue to add gratuitous irrelevant sex scenes that ruin the film. Why? It certainly can’t be artistic license because the principal reaction to them is usually-‘Ew!!! Why did they do that?” 

Movie-going statistics have dropped significantly among older adults and that’s understandable since most fare today cater to hormonal adolescents without a clue as to the true appeal of sensual art. Yet senior citizens today are former film buffs who would relish worthy theatrical offerings but their treks back to the wide screen lonely leave them disappointed. 

A few years ago I went with an elderly friend to see, “Love Actually,” because we’re both great fans of Alan Rickman. The film has various vignettes of romantic couples and their curious experiences pursuing the love game. One of these couples happens to be two individuals acting in a porn movie and although the intent was to inject irony in the sex scenes showing the relative naïveté of the participants as they try to hook up, it failed miserably. My friend later said that particular graphic display spoiled the otherwise charming film which she no longer would add to her DVD collection when it came out. 

Who decides to add these charm-busters to films? What is it about major appliances like washing machines that attract sexual activity? In the film, “Little Children,” Kate Winslet and Patrick Wilson drop their drawers to perform sexual gymnastics in the laundry room and several other inappropriate venues. “ Annette Bening has her head banged against a motel headboard while her adulterous lover humps her energetically in the Oscar winner “American Beauty.” Did we have to see Viggo Mortensen’s bare butt as he had sex with his wife on the stairs ( note: stairs are a very uncomfortable place to indulge in this activity) in “ A History of Violence?” Of course not and every film would have generated better box office without these unnecessary insertions — pardon the double entendre. 

I could blame corrupt producers and directors but none of these quality-busting scenes would be possible without the cooperation of the actors and actresses involved. I’m continually flabbergasted that these so-called artists actually consider it of thespian merit to simulate raw sex before the eye of the camera. In a way, Eight Avenue peep shows are more candid about their industry. 

Madonna was said to be embarrassed about old nude photographs that might impede her adoption of  the Malawi child David. Her daughter Lourdes is rumored to be more conservative than her Mom. Big surprise that! 

I wonder what the children of Julianne Moore will think of her naked lap dance in “Boogie Nights” when they’re old enough to see the film.

Helen Mirren has managed to eclipse her “Caligula” and other nude, lascivious roles with an Oscar win for “The Queen,” in which she appeared fully clothed but she’s British so she’s can carry that off somewhat. 

As a teen and a young woman, I’d buy all the movie mags with their color pictures of beautiful people who could honestly be called STARS. Now I find it difficult to name one female star today who doesn’t dress or act like a skank. Sorry. I realize it’s a sign of the times but that doesn’t mean I can’t prefer a time when class was what determined stardom. 

When I look at today’s crop of movie denizens, every single one pales in comparison to our former screen legends. There is no one as gorgeous or as talented as the late Paul Newman. Ava Gardner may have had a checkered love life but her on-screen image is still a paean to her beauty and acting ability not her sexual proclivities. 

Supermarket tabloids used to be my guilty pleasure but for the past few years, I can’t drum up interest in any of the figures that the paparazzi chase down. The word “star” is applied to reality TV people who fail to excite my curiosity. I don’t care who’s sleeping with whom nor do I give a whit about what any of them have to say. 

Erotica is now dead in cinema and has been replaced by pornography. I’m trying hard to imagine which of today’s Hollywood elite could produce the same sexual heat that a long gone Maureen O’Sullivan and Johnny Weismuller managed to generate in our own minds. I’ve drawn a blank. Any suggestions?

Nathan Lane and John Goodman are selling tickets hand over fist for their revival of “Waiting for Godot” but neither received the honor of a nomination.  Same with David Hyde Pierce, Frank Langella, Mary Louise Parker and Matthew Broderick. 

It was no surprise that Jeremy Piven was included out of the Best Actor category after his famous sushi defense for missing performances in David Mamet’s “Speed-the-Plow,” but not honoring John Lithgow’s brilliant turn in “All My Sons” in the same category is a crime against humanity!  It ranks up there with the snub of Dustin Hoffman as Willy Loman in the 1984 revival of “Death of a Salesman.” Brian Dennehy was honored with the Best Actor award when he did Willy Loman in 2000, but that goodwill did not anoint him worthy of a nomination this year for his turn in “Desire Under the Elms.” 

Add to the list of the egregiously overlooked: Diane Wiest, Kristin Scott Thomas, Daniel Radcliffe, Tovah Feldshuh, Joan Allen, Jeremy Irons, Rupert Everett, Christine Ebersol, Patrick Wilson, Susan Sarandon and Katie Holmes. 

As an industry, Broadway seems to take an odd pride in the moniker “The Fabulous Invalid” and I have lamented this mindset on these pages before.  Broadway’s ability to eat its young and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory has become legendary and not a little bit annoying. 

Here we are at the end of a season where the biggest headline was about how horrible things are on Broadway and how every show is closing and how there are nothing but empty theatres, and right when the industry has a chance to turn that story around and promote the fact that not only has every theatre been occupied but incredibly high-wattage stars have come out to perform live in intimate, beautiful theatres, they turn around and kill their own lead. 

Wouldn’t it have been great to have a nationally televised theatre awards show with ratings better than an NHL playoff game? 

Now, I understand the argument that everyone can’t be nominated, and I recognize that some pretty big names were honored like Jeff Daniels, Geoffery Rush, Marcia Gay Harden, Jane Fonda, Stockard Channing, John Glover and Angela Lansbury.  But, really, if the industry is in the trouble they say it’s in, and you have a chance to showcase Daniel Radcliffe, Katie Holmes (and maybe Mr. Holmes?) and Rupert Everett on national television as honored performers from the prior season, shouldn’t you figure out a way to do it? 

Here’s a modest proposal:  Expand the acting categories!  Where is it written in stone that there should only be five nominees for each category?  In some pretty thin years in the not-too-distant past they have nominated LESS than five in some categories.  (I know that the doom-sayers on Broadway all think that this is the worst it’s ever been, but seriously, in 1989 the THREE nominees for Best Musical were “Jerome Robbins’ Broadway”, “Black and Blue” and “Starmites”!).  So in a crappy year, they change the rules and only nominate three, but in a year packed with stars, they hold to the arbitrary five nominee rule and the story becomes “Who Got Snubbed”.  It makes no sense at all. 

I know that none of this seems to follow a “Right versus Left” storyline that many of you may be used to here at Big Hollywood, but hang in there with me for a few more thoughts.  The fact is, the left on Broadway (meaning the vast majority of actors, designers and staffers in the production offices) relish the fact that they give a big “up yours” to the Hollywood types who dare to come to Broadway.  In this context, the Hollywood actors are “rich” and the New York theatre people are the poor, starving artists giving up riches for their craft.  They want to see the Hollywood star fail.  It’s classic class warfare, just like it is played out in the political world of America. 

The same mentality that celebrates the increased taxes on “The Rich” and rails against “Big Pharma” and “Big Oil” yet fails to recognize the damage done to our society when these productive members of our economy are punished by ever-burdensome taxes and regulations is at play when they watch in bitchy glee as Hollywood movie stars are snubbed in favor of a “real” actor from their ranks.  But they fail to realize that those Hollywood hacks are the ones who are selling the tickets and keeping the “Theatre Community” employed.  If Hollywood actors ever get the message and stop risking rejection and embarrassment by performing on Broadway, it will just mean more unemployment for the theatre purists. 

But, that’s OK, they’ll just blame Middle America for not being smart or cultured enough to truly appreciate Thomas Sadoski in “Reasons to be Pretty” instead of wanting to see Tom Cruise’s wife or that guy from “3rd Rock From the Sun.” 

Stage Right is on Facebook.

Jordana Brewster is reunited with Vin, Paul and Michelle in FAST & FURIOUS

Universal seems to have answered that question by getting its successful street racing franchise back into the fast lane this weekend with Fast & Furious. The movie, which reunites Vin Diesel, Paul Walker, Jordana Brewster and Michelle Rodriguez for the first time since 2001’s original surprise blockbuster, has exploded to a high octane $30.11M or so on Friday and that could mean a $70M opening weekend. That would make it the all-time #1 opening for a car racing movie.

Pixar's beloved CARS will likely have only the second-best opening for an auto racing movie by Monday

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR AUTO RACING MOVIES
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $70M opening (projected)
2. Cars – $60.1M opening
3. 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003) – $50.4M opening
4. Talladega Nights – $47M opening
5. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $40M opening
6. The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift (2006) – $24M opening
7. Speed Racer – $18.5M opening
8. Days of Thunder – $15.5M opening
9. Herbie: Fully Loaded – $12.7M opening
10. Death Race – $12.6M opening

How big is that $30.11M opening day? It is the all-time biggest debut gross for any movie not released in the summer peak (May – July) and the November-December holiday period.

ALL-TIME BIGGEST OPENING DAYS FOR NON-PEAK RELEASES
- non-peak is defined as May thru July & November-December -
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $30.11M opening day (estimated)
2. 300 – $28.1M opening day
3. Passion of the Christ – $26.5M opening day
4. Watchmen – $24.5M opening day
5. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $21.7M opening day

The Fast franchise has an odd history. 2001’s The Fast & The Furious scored a blistering $40M opening weekend and reached $144.5M domestic and over $200M worldwide. Then the enigmatic Diesel decided that he didn’t like the script for the proposed sequel. Boyz n the Hood’s John Singleton took the reigns from Rob Cohen and Walker returned for 2 Fast 2 Furious, which still scorted an impressive $127M in the US sans Diesel. Then in 2006, Universal rebooted without Diesel or Walker with The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift, and the fan base eroded considerably as the poorly-received movie generated only $62.5M after a sluggish $23.9M 3-day start.

Now, the original cast returns with Tokyo Drift director Justin Lin at the helm, and those Under 25 Males are showing up (dragging their girlfriends no doubt), and the reaction across the social networking platform Twitter is very telling. The first thing I noticed. Lots of sellouts and long lines.

• damn fast and furious full till 11
• Standing in line for Fast and Furious earlier show was sold out. I so hope it is worth this.
• Didn’t realize fast and furious would do so much business.
• Just saw Fast & Furious. It was crazazy. The theater was packed and every show was sold out. I loved it!
• Waiting in line to see Fast and Furious. Really long line!
• too many people watching fast and furious tonight!
• is watching monsters vs. aliens, only because Fast and Furious was sold out. :/

As far as instant reaction from the Twitteratti, it seems roughly split 60% positive and 40% negative. Here are some “thumbs up” Tweets.

• Just hopped outta Fast and Furious. Forget 2 and 3, this was the real sequel. Better than you hope it’ll be, I promise.
• new fast and furious = AMAZING
• Fast and Furious 4… wow, what a movie! For boys, that is.
• Fast and Furious 4, great action movie. It’s as good as the first one. SpitBaby gives it 4 of 5 stars.
• Saw Fast and Furious tonight. It was pretty darn good! Lots of American Muscle.

Not everyone agrees however. Some are Twittering their disapproval.

• The ‘Fast and the Furious’ perfectly describes how I would leave that movie.
• just saw the new fast and furious.bad as expected.
• just got home from seeing FAST AND FURIOUS! IT SUCKED!!!
• Fast and Furious: Not bad, but I wouldn’t tell you to pay theatre $ to see it unless you’re a fan of the first movie. Too many jump cuts.
• Fast and Furious: worst movie ever.
• fast and furious was awful. whats the appeal? minus hot guys, crappy cars and chicks making out? no thanks

For Vin Diesel, this weekend’s opening is an all-time best, and you’ve got to wonder who gives him career advice. He walked away from the both 2 Fast 2 Furious and the sequel to the highly lucrative XXX (XXX:State of the Union was ultimately made with Ice Cube as the lead grossing just $26.8M domestic, but it would have certainly performed much better as a Diesel project).

ALL-TIME TOP 5 VIN DIESEL OPENINGS
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $70M opening (projected)
2. XXX – $44.5M opening
3. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $40M
4. The Pacifier – $30.5M opening
5. The Chronicles of Riddick – $24.3M opening

Meanwhile, thanks to the F&F hot wheels, Paul Walker has three $40M+ openings on his resume.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 PAUL WALKER OPENINGS
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $70M opening (projected)
2. 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003) – $50.4M opening
3. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $40M opening
4. Eight Below – $20.1M opening
5. She’s All That – $16M opening

MVA still a MONSTER at the box office - especially in 3-D

Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) continues to be a box office juggernaut as it begins its second weekend. The animated send-up of B-movie sci-fi from the 1950’s continues to be fueled by its 2,075 or so standard Digital 3-D engagements and the added 143 Digital IMAX runs scoring an exceedingly strong $8.9M on Friday, which will likely translate to an estimated $35.6M for the frame and a 10-day cume of almost $108M. That will represent an approximate weekend drop of just 40%, which is impressive given that the opening 3-day was $59.3M.

Possibly the creepiest movie poster ever

The Lionsgate genre pic The Haunting in Connecticut sold another $3.67M in tickets on its second Friday, and it should reach about $10.65M by Monday for a new cume of $38.47M. That would mean a drop of only 54%, very good for a horror flick.

Jason Segal unleashes the crazies on passerby on the Venice Boardwalk in I LOVE YOU, MAN

Meanwhile Knowing (Summit) and I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) will both spend another week in the top five. The Alex Proyas-directed Nicolas Cage vehicle managed $2.67M to start the 3-day, and Knowing may reach $8.69M by Monday. With a new cume of $58.76M, the gang at Summit has a shot to push this one just past $70M in the US. John Hamburg’s Apatow-style comedy with the inspired pairing of Paul Rudd and Jason Segal is also holding strong with an estimated $2.73M in tickets sold on Friday and a weekend target of $8.69M. I Love You, Man could reach $65M domestic before it wraps its theatrical engagements.

The news is not good for the well-reviewed Miramax release Adventureland. Despite a score of 89% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, Greg Mottola’s much-anticipated follow-up to Superbad has stumbled out of the gates with just $2.17M from 1,862 playdates. The weekend gross will likely be in the $6.05M range for a Per Theatre Average of just $3,249.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Fast & Furious (Universal) – $30.11M, $8,088 PTA, $28M cume
2. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.9M, $2,169 PTA, $81.09M cume
3. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $3.67M, $1,345 PTA, $31.36M cume
4. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.73M, $1,052 PTA, $44.17M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) – $2.67M, $805 PTA, $52.74M cume
6. NEW – Adventureland (Miramax) – $2.17M, $1,168 PTA, $2.17M cume
7. Duplicity (Universal) – $1.43M, $571 PTA, $29.5M cume
8. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $970,000, $343 PTA, $56M cume
9. 12 Rounds (Fox) – $850,000, $365 PTA, $7.57M cume
10. Sunshine Cleaning (Overture) – $580,000, $1,211 PTA, $4.05M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Fast & Furious (Universal) – $70M, $20,220 PTA, $70M cume
2. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $35.6M, $8,674 PTA, $107.79M cume
3. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $10.65M, $3,901 PTA, $38.34M cume
4. Knowing (Summit) – $8.69M, $2,616 PTA, $58.76M cume
5. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.69M, $3,342 PTA, $50.12M cume
6. NEW – Adventureland (Miramax) – $6.05M, $3,249 PTA, $6.05M cume
7. Duplicity (Universal) – $4.56M, $1,810 PTA, $32.63M cume
8. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $3.49M, $1,235 PTA, $58.52M cume
9. 12 Rounds (Fox) – $2.7M, $1,158 PTA, $9.42M cume
10. Sunshine Cleaning (Fox) – $2.03M, $4,238 PTA, $5.5M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

The original The Fast & The Furious hit theatres in 2001 under the direction of Rob Cohen who had shown a knack for action with Dragon: The Bruce Lee Story ($35M US cume) and Sly Stallone’s Daylight ($33M US cume) and a savvy feel for bigger-than-life characters in his Golden Globe winning biopic The Rat Pack (which, if you’ve never seen you should put in your Netflix cue and prepare to be amazed by Don Cheadle’s turn as Sammy Davis, Jr.). In tow, he had a 34-year-old Vin Diesel in only his second starring role following the surprise low budget hit Pitch Black ($39M cume) and 28-year-old Paul Walker, who had just starred in Cohen’s forgettable The Skulls. Also in the cast was Jordana Brewster (As the World Turns) and a pre-Lost Michelle Rodriguez, whose most notable credit was a gritty little indie called Girlfight.

Vin Diesel returns for FAST & FURIOUS

The result was box office jet fuel. Seemingly out of nowhere, The Fast & The Furious scored a scalding $40M opening weekend and reached $144.5M domestic and over $200M worldwide. But Diesel, whose signature line in the original movie is “I live my life one quarter of a mile at a time,” didn’t like the script for the sequel (or they wouldn’t pay his asking price depending on who you ask). That led to the 2003 sequel 2 Fast 2 Furious directed by Academy Award nominee John Singleton (Boyz n the Hood) starring Walker along with rapper Tyrese Gibson and Eva Mendes. Despite Diesel’s conspicuous absence, 2 Fast still delivered $127M in the US.

Two years later came the disastrous re-imagining of the franchise with The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift. No Diesel. No Walker. The movie featured Zachery Ty Bryan from TV’s Home Improvement and the very solid Lucas Black, who had just played quarterback Mike Winchell in the film version of Friday Night Lights and as a kid co-starred with Billy Bob Thornton in Sling Blade. The third movie in the franchise “drifted” toward irrelevancy with a very soft $23.9M opening and only $62.5M domestic.

Now, as The Blues Brothers once famously said, “We’re getting the band back together!” Diesel. Walker. The still beautiful Brewster. And, the edgy Rodriguez, who, ironically, has one of the worst driving records in history (a hit-and-run, 2 DUIs and at least 3 speeding tickets including one for 90mph in a 35mph zone). This time, they are under the direction of Tokyo Drift director Justin Lin, and the reviews are less than sparkling (18% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but there are some credible positive notices, including Kirk Honeycutt from the Hollywood Reporter who says, “All four films feature terrific stunts. But Fast & Furious is the first film since the original to be smart about how far to stretch logic without sacrificing the desired macho swagger and revved-up emotions.”

Diesel and Paul Walker - 8 years older

The average street racing fan is unlikely to be a Hollywood Reporter reader, and the PG-13 rating will allow for a flood of teen boys, who have grown up playing video games like Grand Theft Auto, to pour into theatres for some high octane fun. The tracking, especially Males Under 25, looks very strong, and my prediction is for $48M, but I won’t be surprised to see it speed past $50M.

Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) has been performing very well during the week, especially in those communities where kids are off for spring break. I’ll be surprised if MVA dips much more than 40% from its $59.3M opening frame. I’m predicting a $35.4M second weekend, which would mean a spectacular 10-day cume of about $106.7M.

With only two new, wide releases, The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) should hold up better-than-the-average horror movie. I am anticipating about $11.7M, which would mark only a 49% drop. With a new cume of about $40M by Monday, this low budget special will have made back its budget twice over before its done (not to mention ancillary rights).

Nicolas Cage in KNOWING

The latest from Nicolas Cage and directed by Alex Proyas (Dark City, I Robot), is nearing profitability as well. Knowing (Summit), with a reported budget of $50M, is likely to bank another $8.7M over the weekend for a new cume of almost $59M. It is opening decently in foreign markets including $5M+ in Russia.

Director Greg Mottola’s long-awaited follow-up to mega-hit Superbad ($121M US) is the much lower profile Adventureland from Miramax. The reviews are through the roof with an 85% Fresh rating from Rotten Tomatoes, and especially noteworthy is Kenneth Turan of the LA Times who writes, “With a cast that believed in one another and a writer-director who believed he didn’t have to follow up Superbad with SuperEvenBadder, Adventureland is the kind of adventure we could all use more of.”

This is the kind of movie that could surprise because of positive buzz, but with only 1,862 screens, it’s hard to generate an eye-popping number. I’m penciling Adventureland in for $8.1M, which would still be an impressive $4,350 Per Theatre Average.

Also continuing to perform well will be I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount), adding another $7.9M or so (a small drop in the 35%-40% range). It is possible that the John Hamburg buddy comedy could top $50M by Monday.

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR APRIL 3-5
1. NEW – Fast & Furious (Universal) – $48M
2. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $35.4M
3. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $11.7M
4. Knowing (Summit) – $8.6M
5. NEW – Adventureland (Miramax) -$8.1M
6. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $7.9M
7. Duplicity (Universal) – $4.9M
8. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $3.25M
9. 12 Rounds (Fox) – $2.3M
10. Taken (Fox) – $1.4M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

MONSTERS VS. ALIENS towers over previous 3-D releases from Hollywood

If that number holds, and, if anything, they could drift higher as family audiences flood America’s multiplexes, Monsters vs. Aliens will be the all-time third-best opening in the month of March.

Still the all-time March opening weekend champion

ALL-TIME TOP 5 MARCH OPENINGS
1. 300 – $70.8M opening
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $68M opening
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (2009) – $58M opening (projected estimate)
4. Watchmen – $55.2M opening
5. Ice Age – $46.3M opening

But this is more than a conventional 35MM movie. This kind of number sends a message to theatre owners, credit markets and other studios that the all-new Digital 3-D is here to stay. With 40+ major 3-D movies on the way to the marketplace, it was important for MVA to demonstrate the potential of this new technology.

Jeffrey Katzenberg, leading the 3-D charge for the industry

Yes, Dreamworks Animation head Jeffrey Katzenberg wanted more 3-D screens to be ready (he was hoping for at least 1,000 more), but this is a triumph.

As always, I am monitoring the Twitter-verse for instant reactions from movie-goers who have seen the film on opening day. It is very hard to find anyone with a negative reaction.

Kids and I just home from Monsters vs. Aliens 3-D version. WOW, 3-D has come a long way!

Imax + 3-D totally worth it just to watch your kid try to reach out and grab things in mid-air

Did Monsters vs. Alien in 3-D today with the family. My first 3-D movie at a theater, very cool we had a BLAST!

Monsters Vs. Aliens, 8 thumbs up from the family! Great job with the 3-D as well, not cheesy at all unlike 3D movies when I was a kid.

Saw Monsters vs. Aliens in 3-D today. Go see it. It’s freakin’ cool!

The 3-D glasses these days are cool–they look like sunglasses

LOVED LOVED LOVED Monsters vs. Aliens. Fun for grown ups and kids. And I still have the marks on my face from the 3-D glasses. Can you tell?

The 3-D version of Monsters vs. Aliens is presented in modern Digital 3-D. The original 3-D movies of the 1950’s like Bwana Devil, starring Robert Stack, were primitive, but became a sensation. That movie’s tagline was “A Lion in Your Lap, A Lover in Your Arms,” and it was presented using polarized images by Arch Oboler’s production company.

Then Oboler and a former US military 3-D mapmaker developed trioptiscope that allowed images to float off of the screen. They dubbed this Space-Vision, and it required the use of those infamous cardboard glasses with the red and green cellophane lenses. Oboler released a movie called The Bubble in the late 1960’s, which failed to catch on, and then it was renamed and re-released in 1976 as The Fantastic Invasion of Planet Earth. The modest success of the latter version of the movie led to a new generation of filmmakers trying their hand at 3-D. Along came Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D (1982), Jaws 3-D (1983) and Amityville Horror 3-D (1983). Same Space-Vision technology with cardboard glasses and loads of cheap gimmickry.

The monstrous opening weekend for Monsters vs. Aliens easily dwarfs previous 3-D releases including all-time champ Spy Kids 3-D from 2003 (in old-style Space-Vision).

ALL-TIME TOP 13 OPENINGS FOR 3-D MOVIES
- identified with year of release & type of 3-D –
1. Monsters vs. Aliens (2009 – Digital 3-D) – $58M opening (projected estimate)
2. Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over (2003 – Space-Vision 3-D) – $33.4M opening – $111.7M cume
3. Hannah Montana: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (2008 – Digital 3-D) – $31.1M opening – $65.2M cume
4. Beowulf (2007 – Digital 3-D) – $27.5M opening – $82.3M cume
5. Bolt (2008 – Digital 3-D) – $26.2M opening – $114M cume
6. The Polar Express (2004 – Digital 3-D) – $23.3M opening – $180.8M cume
7. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (2009 – Digital 3-D) – $21.2M opening – $51.5M cume
8. Journey To the Center of the Earth (2008 – Digital 3-D) – $21M opening – $101.7M cume
9. Coraline (2009 – Digital 3-D) – $16.8M opening – $73.6M cume
10. Jaws 3-D (1983 – Space-Vision 3-D) – $13.4M opening – $45.5M cume
11. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (2009 – Digital 3-D)- $12.5M opening – $19.1M cume
11. The Adventures of Sharkboy & Lava Girl 3-D (2005) – $12.5M opening – $39.1M cume
13. Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D (1982 – Space-Vision 3-D) – $9.4M opening – $36.7M cume

Based on an opening weekend of this magnitude, Monsters vs. Aliens will chart a course for $190M-$200M in the US. It is possible that it will exceed the $215M scored by last summer’s Kung Fu Panda, also from Dreamworks. The worldwide box office number may top $525M.

Lionsgate is proving that there is always room for a genre pic with a surprising upside surprise for The Haunting in Connecticut. With Oscar nominee Virginia Madsen (Sideways) as the only real name on the marquee, the low budget PG-13 scarefest scored a far-above-expectations $9.6M on opening day to kick off what should be a possible $22.9M weekend. (I would argue that the incredibly creepy poster is responsible for the surprisingly strong debut.)

Summit’s Knowing, directed by Alex Proyas and starring Nicolas Cage, has held up far better-than-expected. Last weekend’s champ added $4.6M on its second Friday, and its 3-day target is $14.4M, enough for third place. That would give the film a 10-day cume of $45.91M.

Jason Segal (left) and Paul Rudd in I LOVE YOU, MAN

The hilarious I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) will probably dip only 30% or so from its opening. The John Hamburg comedy delivered another $4M in ticket sales, and it is #4 and cruising toward a possible $12.2M by Monday morning for a new cume of $36.6M.

Bad news for Tony Gilroy’s Duplicity (Universal), starring Julia Roberts and Clive Owen. The adult comedy/mystery slumped to just $2.3M to start the frame, and it will manage only a fifth-place finish with $7.5M or so. That is a 47% drop and a new domestic take of just over $25M.

Meanwhile, pro wrestler-turned-actor John Cena and former superstar director Renny Harlin (Diehard 2, Cliffhanger) have launched 12 Rounds (Fox), which has failed to ignite much excitement. The action flick managed only a disastrous $1.8M on Friday and is headed for an underwhelming $5M opening.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $16.7M, $4,069 PTA, $16.7M cume
2. NEW – The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $9.6M, $3,520 PTA, $9.6M cume
3. Knowing (Summit) – $4.6M, $1,378 PTA, $36.11M cume
4. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $4M, $1,472 PTA, $28.4M cume
5. Duplicity (Universal) – $2.3M, $895 PTA, $20.4M cume
6. NEW – 12 Rounds (Fox) – $1.8M, $790 PTA, $1.8M cume
7. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $1.5M, $459 PTA, $49.15M cume
8. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $870,000, $370 PTA, $26.7M cume
9. Taken (Fox) – $820,000, $418 PTA, $135.19M cume
10. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $725,000, $361 PTA, $101.26M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $58M, $14,133 PTA, $58M cume
2. NEW – The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $22.9M, $8,380 PTA, $22.9M cume
3. Knowing (Summit) – $14.4M, $4,315 PTA, $45.91M cume
4. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $12.2M, $4,490 PTA, $36.6M cume
5. Duplicity (Universal) – $7.5M, $2,908 PTA, $25.6M cume
6. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $5.3M, $1,580 PTA, $52.9M cume
7. NEW – 12 Rounds (Fox) – $5M, $1,368 PTA, $5M cume
8. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $2.75M, $1,368 PTA, $103.25M cume
9. Taken (Fox) – $2.5M, $1,275 PTA, $137M
10. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $2.48M, $1,102 PTA, $28.32M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Jeffrey Katzenberg - The Pied Piper for Digital 3-D

ALL-TIME WIDEST NON-SUMMER RELEASES
- with summer defined as May 1 – August 30 -
1. 3/27/09 – Monsters Vs. Aliens – 4,104 playdates
2. 11/07/08 – Madagascar 2 – 4,056 playdates
3. 10/01/04 – Shark Tale – 4,016
4. 3/31/06 – Ice Age: The Meltdown – 3,964
5. 3/14/08 – Dr. Suess’ Horton Hears A Who – 3,954

Many of those playdates are multiple screen engagements. In fact, MVA will be on over 7,000 screens. Screen counts are generally treated as “state secrets” at studios. Sony was able to secure a reported 10,000 screens for Spider-Man 3 with its 4,252 playdates back in May of 2007 (that’s an average of 2.35 screens per playdate). The all-time playdate record still belongs to The Dark Knight last July with 4,366, but TDK’s screen count was just over 9,200 (2.1 screens per location). Based on that calculation, Dreamworks/Paramount has on average 1.7 screens at each of its playdates.

THE DARK KNIGHT still holds the record for most playdates

This is a big, broad 93 minute family film, not a long, dark comic book opus (Spider-Man 3 was 139 minutes long and The Dark Knight was 152 minutes). The main reason for MVA’s high screen count is 3-D. Athough when Katzenberg announced Monsters Vs. Aliens, he envisioned as many as 4,000 3-D screens, the economy has not cooperated, slowing digital conversion and limiting the number of 3-D runs. The final count of actual 3-D engagements is an estimated 2,218 (that includes 143 IMAX 3-D runs).

If you have not seen one of the all-new digital 3-D releases, you must first forget about past experiences with 3-D.  Hollywood’s first flirtation was in the 1950’s with movies like House of Wax and Bwana Devil. Then during my high school years, the early 1980’s, 3-D made a brief resurgence with Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D (1982), Jaws 3-D (1983) and Amityville Horror 3-D (1983). The technology hadn’t changed. It was  still cardboard glasses with colored cellophane lenses and loads of cheap gimmickry.

BOX OFFICE FOR 3-D FILMS OF THE 1980’S
Jaws 3-D – $13.4M opening – $45.5M cume
Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D – $9.4M opening – $36.7M cume
Amityville 3-D – $2.3M opening – $6.3M cume

This new 3-D technology is very different. It is made possible by digital presentation along with Real-D 3-D added. The cost of converting an individual theatre to 3-D is about $100,000 per screen. That includes digital projection, the most expensive piece at $75,000, the Real-D system, the special screen required and all installation. When Jeffrey Katzenberg planted his 3-D blockbuster Monsters Vs. Aliens on the release calendar two years ago, he could not have anticipated the worldwide economic meltdown.

Today's 3-D experience is very different from the 50's

Instead of exhibitors frantically ramping up digital conversion to show Monsters Vs. Aliens on as many 3-D screens as possible, the frozen credit markets stifled progress. Theatre chains and independent theatres have had trouble securing the financing to undertake conversions, and it is very uphill, even with distributors offering to pay a “virtiual print fee” to help cover the costs.

Dreamworks isn’t the only studio with a lot riding on the success of Monsters Vs. Aliens. Disney/Pixar’s next film Up is in 3-D, then there’s the Robert Zemeckis 3-D version of A Christmas Carol for the holidays, and in December, James Cameron’s Avatar, his first major wide release since Titanic. There are over 40 major 3-D movies in the pipeline right now. If Monsters Vs. Aliens scores big, it will be a strong incentive for theatre-owners to convert more theatres to digital.

If you are taking the kids to see MVA this weekend, be prepared for a $2-$3.50 upcharge. It may seem outrageous, but soon after you settle into your seat, you will realize that it is worth the extra couple of bucks. Digital 3-D is truly spectacular, and not in a gimmicky way. You just feel like you are in a different world. You’ll forget you’re wearing the stylish new 3-D glasses, and you can take part in what I think is a major innovation for the industry.

Reviews for Monsters Vs. Aliens are outstanding (73% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), and the pre-opening tracking is now sizzling. Given that there is an upcharge on 3-D and a bigger upcharge on 3-D IMAX, I think MVA will beat the $50M-$55M industry expectation. I believe this one will get past $60M by Monday, and, with Easter in two weeks and spring break taking place around the country for school kids, this picture has a real shot at $200M domestic and could surpass Kung Fu Panda’s $215M. Worldwide, the cutting edge animated movie will likely exceed $600M.

The new Lionsgate genre pic The Haunting in Connecticut seems destined for mid-teens and a distant second, although word-of-mouth for I Love You Man is very good, and Dreamworks has an outside shot to finish 1-2. The Nic Cage sci-fi thriller Knowing (Summit) is likely to dip more than 50%, while the entertaining Julia Roberts-Clive Owen comedy/mystery Duplicity (Universal) seems as though it will hold more strongly, possibly down just 30%-35% from opening weekend for a second top five finish.

FINAL BOX OFFICE FORECAST FOR MARCH 27-29
1. NEW – Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $60.64M
2. NEW – The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $14.6M
3. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $12M
4. Knowing (Summit) – $11.8M
5. Duplicity (Universal) – $9.67M
6. NEW – 12 Rounds (Fox) – $8.1M
7. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $7.14M
8. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $2.58M
9. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $2.56M
10. Taken (Fox) – $1.94M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

As a production company, Summit is responsible for some monster hits, including commercially and/or artistically successful films like Once (Oscar nominee for Best Picture), American Pie ($102..5M domestic), Memento (Oscar nominee for Best Original Screenplay: Chris Nolan), Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($186.3M domestic) and In the Valley of Ellah (Tommy Lee Jones nominated for Best Actor). But as a distributor, they got off to a slow start.

SUMMIT RELEASES
- in sequential order -
11/9/07 – P2 – $4M cume
2/29/08 – Penelope – $10M cume
3/14/08 – Never Back Down – $24.8M cume
8/15/08 – Fly Me To the Moon – $13.2M cume
10/17/08 – Sex Drive – $8.4M cume
11/21/08 – Twilight – $191.3M cume
2/6/09 – Push – $30.9M cume
3/20/09 – Knowing – $24.8M opening – $55M-$60M projected cume

As I wrote Friday, I think that word-of-mouth is weak for Knowing, but the movie held up pretty well over opening weekend. It is definitely helped by it’s PG-13 rating, its appeal to Males Under 25 (especially Under 17’s), and its similarity to Cage’s National Treasure franchise.

Meanwhile, I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) ticked up 8% on Saturday to about $6.8M, and it will have banked about $18M by Monday morning. That is on par with Paul Rudd’s Role Models ($19.1M opening) and Jason Segal’s Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($17.7M opening). I’m sticking with $65M-$70M as my projection for domestic box office for this very funny movie that happens to have a very good heart.

I really wonder about the R-rating for I Love You, Man. It is a very, very soft R. There is no nudity or sex (although there are references to oral sex in particular), and it doesn’t roll up a high count of F-bombs. It seems to me that the ratings board was hard on this one, and a PG-13 rating could have meant an additional $5M-$8M (at least) on opening weekend.

DUPLICITY is Julia Roberts' first feature lead since 2003's MONA LISA SMILE

The other new wide release is Duplicity (Universal), starring Julia Roberts and Clive Owen. This is a very smart, densely-plotted, stylish-looking movie for grown-ups. Writer/director Tony Gilroy is among the best screenwriters in town with all three Jason Bourne movies on his resume along with the legal thriller Michael Clayton, nominated for 7 Academy Awards.

With Females 25 Plus as its most important demo, the film got a big 27% Saturday bump to almost $6M. I saw the movie Saturday night, and it was about 60% women with lots of women in pairs and groups. That is a very good sign for future weeks since Females 25 Plus are never in a rush to see a movie on opening weekend. The audience I was in was mesmerized and laughed in all the right places, but overall, the CinemaScore exit survey was only a C. I still belive that, after a $14.4M third-place finish, Duplicity will get to the $45M-$50M range in the US.

Not strong enough to hold an audience for weekend #2 of RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN

Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) is not holding well at all, dipping to $13M for the weekend. A 46% second weekend drop spells an early end for the new one starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. It is just not especially well-liked, and Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks Animation) will destroy it next weekend.

Sorry Rohrschach, WATCHMEN is completely burned out

Finally, Watchmen (Warner Bros) suffered a second consecutive disastrous 3-day, down another 62% to $6.7M for a 17-day cume of $98M. Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s classic graphic novel is unlikely to reach much past $110M in the US, and with a soft foreign performance as well, it will struggle to reach any real profitability.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $24.81M, $7,447 PTA, $24.81M cume
2. NEW – I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $18M, $6,640 PTA, $18M cume
3. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $14.4M, $5,595 PTA, $14.4M cume
4. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $13M, $4,080 PTA, $44.71M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $6.72M, $1,916 PTA, $98M cume
6. The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.92M, $2,465 PTA, $24.04M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $4.4M, $1,654 PTA, $133.43M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.7M, $1,306 PTA, $137.2M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.51M, $1,368 PTA, $87.2M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.14M, $1,498 PTA, $72.8M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.