Mel Gibson’s decision to make a biopic of the Jewish religious icon Judah Maccabee is the latest twist in the star’s long, tortured history with the Jewish community.

In a May 2003 interview with National Catholic Reporter Jesuit Fr. William J. Fulco, who translated the script into Aramaic and Latin, assured the nervous Jewish community, “In no way do I experience it as offensive to Jews or anyone else.”

But as Gibson began to screen the film to selected Catholic and Jewish leaders, accusations of anti-Semitism sounded louder and louder in the media. Unhappy with the film’s tone towards the Jewish people and their culpability in the crucifixion of Jesus, leaders such as New York Assemblyman Dov Hikind.

Eventually, Twentieth Century Fox passed on picking up the film, now titled The Passion of the Christ and it was distributed by indie company, Newmarket Films.

Full story here.

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with a respectful, big-budget biopic of the prophet Muhammad – that’s not the point – but it’s well worth remembering that while he was one of the biggest movie stars in the world, Oscar-winning director Mel Gibson had his ”Passion of the Christ” turned down by every studio in town. You know, even though 70% of Americans identify themselves as Christians.

Now, if Gibson had produced “The Pissing on the Christ…”

Producer Barrie Osborne cast Keanu Reeves as the messiah in The Matrix and helped defeat the dark lord Sauron in his record-breaking Lord of the Rings trilogy. Now the Oscar-winning American film-maker is set to embark on his most perilous quest to date: making a big-screen biopic of the prophet Muhammad.

Budgeted at around $150m (£91.5m), the film will chart Muhammad’s life and examine his teachings. Osborne told Reuters that he envisages it as “an international epic production aimed at bridging cultures. The film will educate people about the true meaning of Islam“.

The article then goes on to inform us that out of respect for Islamic law Muhammad will not be shown on the screen. If only such respect was extended to every major religion. Which isn’t to say religion, including Christianity, is above satire, but what we have here is another example of the mindset of those who control the most powerful propaganda machine ever created. Think about it: “The Passion” remains one of the most profitable films ever and yet an industry frequently ridiculed for reproducing ad nauseum anything resembling a hit will have none of it.  

Feel free to comment away but please don’t make the mistake of accusing Hollywood of hypocrisy. This is an ideological war and there are no rules in war and anyone wringing their hands over “not playing fair” are missing the point.  

When you loath Christians and want to do everything in your power to marginalize who they are what they stand for, there’s nothing at all hypocritical about pissing on Christ and deferring to Muhammad.

In fact, that behavior is perfectly consistent.

***

Yes, I know, I know … even people I respect, those from our side of the aisle, are telling me that when it comes to Larry David’s urine and the “Onion” wishing Glenn Beck dead that I need to take a joke and not conform the stereotype of a stodgy, humorless conservative. But…

• “South Park” has never offended me.
• One of my first DVD purchases was “The Life of Brian.”
• Here’s my eulogy to The Mighty George Carlin.

I can take a joke, even a satiric savaging.

What I don’t take so well are cheap shots … even at the expense of my Hip Credentials.

My personal Top 15 are ranked as my favorites always are — based on nothing more than re-watchability. “Rocky Balboa” might not be better written, photographed or acted than any number of films not on this list, but I’m going to watch it a helluva lot more, that’s for sure.  

1. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (2007) – Ever since the lights came up after that first screening, like a drug this lyrical, gorgeously photographed piece of myth-making has tugged me back for another taste. This isn’t easy to admit, but I think I admire Andrew Dominik’s directorial debut even more than John Ford’s “Young Mister Lincoln” (1939), which it resembles in so many ways. Were this also a listing of the greatest performances of the new millennium, Casey Affleck’s portrayal of Robert Ford would rank #1, as well.

2. The Passion of the Christ (2004) – Easily, the purest and rawest emotional cinematic experience I’ve ever had. The Left’s bigoted, venomous attacks combined with the film’s eventual blockbuster success were almost as satisfying as the re-election of George W. Bush.

3. The Dark Knight (2008) - Watching liberal critics gush over a not-so-thinly disguised thank you to President Bush and then harumph and find fault after conservatives calmly explained what this epic of action, character and allegory is really about, was nearly as much fun as the movie.

4. Up (2009) - As far as pure film-making and storytelling goes this exquisite, touching story of the adventure required to help a widower move on after losing the love of his life, is the most perfect picture on the list. In fact, it is perfect. Simply, beautifully perfectly perfect.

5. The Lives of Others (2006) – I’ve read that this unflinching look at the corrosive effects of Big Oppressive Government on the human soul was one of the late great William F. Buckley’s favorites. How’s that for an endorsement? There’s talk of an American remake, which I’m in favor of, because there’s no doubt it will come out as a disastrous failure in every respect. Liberty=good is an idea that no longer computes among those still interested in producing the adult drama. Movies may not be anywhere near as good as they were even ten years ago, but watching Leftist propaganda — which this will surely be twisted into — flop makes for a nice consolation prize.

–

6. Mulholland Drive (2001) – Director David Lynch’s masterpiece was reportedly an aborted television pilot, and yet he somehow turned it into something that out-dreams dreams and out-nightmares nightmares. Mesmerizing, sexy, frightening…. and all driven by a visionary director who created a hypnotic puzzlebox unlike anything we’ve seen before or will again. My eternal thanks to my movie-watching buddy Jim Sprader for bringing it over that day…

7. 300 (2006) – God bless director Zack Snyder for not gutting and nuancing Frank Miller’s brilliant take on the Battle of Thermopylae. Hopefully, someday, Hollywood will become a tolerant place where the conservative, pro-Western themes of “300″ won’t have to be disguised in this way. Not that I mind. Visually, “300″ was not only richly rewarding, but proof that in the hands of a genius director CGI can enhance the story as opposed to distract.

8. Once (2006) – A poignant, affecting and unforgettable musical romance made in Ireland for next to no money. The song’s are stirring, the performances impeccable, the script witty… But more than all of that is a tenderness and gentle humanity rarely found in theatres these days. The perfect rainy afternoon comfort food.

9. Napoleon Dynamite (2004) - Normally my opinion of quirky is that it’s nothing more than irony gone retarded, but in a remarkable debut, co-writer/director Jared Hess strips the cynicism that usually defines quirk and replaces it with old-fashioned heart and sentiment.

10. Pirates of the Caribbean (2003) – Unflustered as he steps from a sinking ship onto a pier, Johnny Depp’s Captain Jack Sparrow also stepped into cinema lore and earned enough goodwill to carry two lacking sequels to box office glory. At least through 2003, we lovers of classic cinematic adventure could no longer say, “They don’t make ‘em like that anymore.”

–

11. Ratatouille (2007) – Man, I loves me that little rat. Most people choose “The Incredibles” as their favorite Brad Bird entry in the Pixar canon, but Anton Ego’s monologue about the difference between those in the arena and those, like me, who snipe from the bleachers (“But the bitter truth we critics must face, is that in the grand scheme of things, the average piece of junk is probably more meaningful than our criticism designating it so…”) might be the best piece of dialogue since Orson Welles’ take on the cuckoo clock in “The Third Man.”

12. No Country For Old Men (2007) - This Coen Brothers Best Picture winner passes the test of a timeless classic: Each viewing is richer than the one that came before.

13. Shaun of the Dead (2004) – Funny, scary, imaginative and about as original as they come.

14. Gone Baby Gone (2007) – What “Mystic River” wanted to be and its defenders said it was can be found in Ben Affleck’s stunningly mature and emotionally devastating directorial debut. Everything from the character accents, the subtly of the performances and the many, many complicated moral questions raised are handled with precision and confidence. Best of all, Affleck leads us to one final and unforgettable closing shot where Casey Affleck silently proves he’s willing to do more than make the terrible decision which cost him everything, he’s willing to take responsibility for it. 

15. Rocky Balboa (2006) – Who would have ever thought writer/director Sylvester Stallone could pull this off? But he did. And I love it more each time I see it.

20 runners up in no particular order: Friday Night Lights, Dawn of the Dead, Kill Bill I & II, Watchmen, Iron Man, Gran Torino, Casino Royale, Pursuit of Happyness, Amelie, In the Bedroom, Million Dollar Baby, Taken, 28 Weeks Later, The Station Agent, A.I., Sexy Beast, Saving Silverman, Monster’s Ball and Match Point.

“Domestic Goddess Hitler” eats a “Jew Cookie” fresh from the oven.

The director may have captured our cinematic imagination throughout most of the 70s and 80s, but the creator of “E.T.” has a dark, troubling side when it comes to personal politics. He is, after all, the Useful Idiot who had to be shamed out of putting a pretty face on one of the most oppressive governments in the history of mankind — he is, after all, the director of “Munich,” an exercise in moral equivalency and historical revisionism written by a screenwriter who, after claiming he wanted Israel to exist, said, “…the founding of the state of Israel was for the Jewish people an historical, moral, political calamity.”

Barr’s Jewish Cookies-In-The-Oven photo can be found in the latest issue of “Heeb” (which, if my third-grade, summer camp fat lip recalls correctly, is a slur), a publication ”backed financially by Steven Spielberg“. In fact, there might not have been a “Heeb” without him:

The magazine was criticized for such a controversial name mostly because The Joshua Venture, a non-profit group backed by Steven Spielberg, granted them $60,000 to start up a business.

Somehow it gets worse. Spielberg’s prodigy refuse to limit the hate to their own (something that used to be called “unacceptable prejudice”). In 2004, the magazine took a vicious swing at Christians with a photo spread depicting Christ and the Virgin Mary in such unspeakable ways the Anti-Defamation League felt compelled to speak out [emphasis added]:

The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) today expressed outrage at a shocking parody in the winter 2004 issue of Heeb Magazine that plays on the recent controversy surrounding Mel Gibson’s film “The Passion of the Christ.”  Among other destructive images, the magazine’s “Crimes of Passion” photo display portrays Jesus as a sex object with his genitalia wrapped in a Jewish prayer shawl.  The Virgin Mary is shown as a seductress with exposed breasts and body piercings. 

“Heeb Magazine’s irresponsible attempt at parody is deeply offensive and blasphemous to both Christians and Jews,” said Abraham H. Foxman, ADL National Director.  ”There is a point when parody crosses the line into tastelessness.  With this issue, Heeb not only crosses that boundary but engages in highly destructive anti-Christian themes that are both insensitive and ill-timed.”

To avoid honest work, somewhere along the line the lazy and untalented got away with calling “shocking” and “offensive” art, and this is where we find ourselves today.

The benefit, I guess, is an honest look at the Palace Guards of our culture. When the mask slips, our Spielbergs are a pretty ugly bunch.

Debbie Schlussel, who brought this to my attention, has more.

Set in 1986 Iran – the Islamic Republic of Iran – Stoning is a gut-wrenching film with haunting music.  Nowrasteh’s movie, set to open June 26, is based on a book about the crime by French-Iranian journalist Freidoune Sahebjam. 

The film opens with Freidoune (James Caviezel) breaking down in his car on his way to the border.  Spending unwanted hours in a small village, he is approached by Zahra (Shohreh Aghdashloo), a woman the villagers try to shoo away as they call her crazy.  But Zahra has a terrible secret.  She does all she can to get word to the journalist about a terrible injustice committed in the village the previous day when her niece, Soraya M. (Mozhan Marnò), falsely accused of adultery by her cheating husband, Ali (Navid Negahban), was stoned to death per Islamic law. 

Stoning’s premise, repeated with numbing regularity around the world today, is made all the more pressing by the masses of Iranians protesting in the streets today while the brutal Basij militia tries to beat them into submission.  But it’s one thing for a stoning of an accused “adulteress” to occur in Somalia, and quite another for it to happen in the soon-to-be-nuclear-armed Islamic Republic of Iran.  If a nation thinks nothing of stoning women to death for the “crime” of adultery while killing peaceful protesters, it takes no imagination to think of what they will do when in possession of a nuclear bomb.  

The film is tightly put together and the acting is natural and intense.  The actors mostly speak Farsi throughout the film, but they communicate volumes, relegating the captions to a supporting role.  Nowrasteh effortlessly allows his film to unfold.  He gradually builds tension, while adding depth to the main characters’ soul.  The end is inevitable as it is jarring, with the males of the village engaging in the collective guilt of the stoning while most of the women watch and wail.  The act of stoning takes away the village’s “dishonor” one stone at a time, according to the mullah. 

It is no small task to adapt a book to the screen, especially a book of the intensity of Sahebjam’s work, but Betsy Giffen Nowrasteh and Cyrus Nowrasteh have done the job with the precision of a brain surgeon.  The husband and wife team add nothing more than needed, while everything needed remains.   

Lastly, a note about John Debney’s music: it is beyond superb.  With a cast and crew of Iranian expatriates making a film about life in the Islamic Republic of Iran, Nowrasteh could have easily settled for a selection of traditional Persian folk music.  This would have been true to form, but likely would have missed the opportunity to tightly tailor the music to the requirements of film while appealing to wider audiences.  It is interesting to see that Debney worked on “Passion of the Christ” (for which Debney was nominated for an Academy Award) along with Caviezel five years ago.  Clearly Debney has developed a talent for producing Mideast-themed music for the big screen. 

Cyrus Nowrasteh’s “The Stoning of Soraya M.” could not have come at a better time for the world.  While Iranians struggle to transcend tyranny and most Americans, including our President, remain rooted in inaction, Stoning proves that Hollywood’s capacity to combat evil is still intact.

These trends beg a few questions. What took Hollywood so long to discover the Christian market? Why can’t they replicate even half the success of “The Passion?” And when Christians make up over half the population, why are faith-based films still relegated to the low-budget, straight to DVD world? The seemingly obvious answer would be that there are few Christians in Hollywood, both at the studio and creative level, but even that would raise the question of why.

I think I know the reason(s), although it’s a bit embarrassing because I happen to be a Christian evangelical. But we must face the truth, and as Dr. Phil so eloquently and charmingly puts it, “You can’t change what you don’t acknowledge.” The fact is, Christian movies have been pretty bad for a few decades. Yes, Hollywood had largely ignored the Christian market, but it’s not like there have been good examples for Hollywood to learn from. And now that Hollywood is actively seeking faith-based material, there’s still a lack of quality scripts and filmmakers available, with a few exceptions, and among the films that are being made in this genre, there are still more crappy ones than good ones.

There are plenty of reasons for this, but four stand out, in no particular order:

1. The Christian community abandoned Hollywood a few decades ago. Until 1968, the Catholic Church had a direct influence on what Hollywood produced with the “Production Code.” After the code was abandoned and movies became more risque, American Christians became disenfranchised with Hollywood. Over time, the distance between Hollywood and the church became greater, especially as many artists made movies that mocked or attacked the church or its traditions. Instead of trying to influence Hollywood by becoming a part of it, Christians avoided it and told their children to do the same. The only time that Hollywood heard from Christians was when boycotts occurred.

2. Even though Christians didn’t want to see evil Hollywood films or listen to evil secular music, they still wanted to see movies and listen to music like everyone else. So what were they to do if the acceptable choices from Hollywood were so few and far between? They created a Christian entertainment subculture, where Christian movies and music were made by Christians, for Christians. Christian bookstores exploded, as families could feel safe shopping in an environment where the only entertainment available was Christian-based. Now Christians had no need to communicate to Hollywood what they wanted because they could get it from Christian media providers, and the relationship between Hollywood and the Christian community became even more distant. Combine the cynicism of Christians towards Hollywood with the annoyance or ignorance of Hollywood towards Christians, and you’ve got the perfect divorce.

3. In “Christian film,” you’ve got a genre defined entirely by its message. There is nothing else like this in entertainment, other than perhaps “gay films,” but because there are so many more gay people in Hollywood than Christians, gay characters show up in mainstream films more than Christian characters do, thereby reducing the need or desire for films devoted exclusively to a gay theme. This has not happened with Christianity in film, so the “Christian film” sub-genre remains alive and growing.

The problem is that everyone knows good art should always put story and character above message. Message films are rarely exciting. So by their very nature, most Christian films aren’t going to be very good because they have to fall within certain message-based parameters. And because the Christian audience is so glad to get a “safe, redeeming, faith-based message,” even at the expense of great art, they don’t demand higher artistic standards. So aspiring filmmakers who are Christians have little need to perfect their craft, and Christian investors have little need to spend a lot of money because the message is going to be most important anyway. Add in the fact that the average heartland Christian couldn’t care less what a critic thinks–if anything, they assume they’ll feel the opposite of a movie critic–and you’ve got even less incentive for Christian filmmakers to be obsessed with quality.

To be fair, this trend isn’t exclusive to Christian entertainment. Horror films are similar in that they don’t need good reviews or higher budgets to deliver the goods to their core audience. And of course, in no genre is this more the case than porn. Even Christian movies are higher quality than porn films. Not that I would know.

4. The above points all lead to one predominant problem: young Christians aren’t encouraged or trained to become great artists. If a young Christian wants to become a filmmaker, they are often either discouraged to do so because Hollywood is so dangerous, or if they do find encouragement, they have a hard time getting proper training. There are two primary things that can foster someone becoming a better artist: one, seeing and being inspired by hundreds of great films, and two, getting a great artistic education. For better or worse, many parents won’t allow their kids to see some of the great films (because of questionable content), and many Christian kids are discouraged from attending the best film schools (also because of questionable content). This not only impacts potential filmmakers, but actors as well.

Therefore, when Hollywood starts to pursue more faith-based films and filmmakers (which they have), they find the cupboard bare. So even if and when they decide to make a faith-based film, they have a hard time finding great Christian filmmakers or actors, which affects both the film and the publicity. A name actor in an action or comic book film is willing to go to Comic-con to promote their film to film buffs and nerds; they know they need to go where the core fans are. This publicity is necessary of course. But if they starred in a faith-based or Biblical film, are they going to go to a church or a Christian convention to promote it to the core fans? Not likely.

Yes, it’s true that Hollywood should do a better job of understanding and relating to the heartland Christian audience. But at some point the Christian community needs to know its role in the problem. I’m talking to myself here, too. I’m a Christian, I’m a filmmaker. I’ve made a few films, and they were pretty good, but they weren’t good enough. I’ve got to get better. We can complain all we want about how Hollywood doesn’t reflect our values, but we lose that right if we’re not producing great projects and artists of our own.

With most of Hollywood (including myself) expecting an opening in the mid-$20M’s for Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney), Miley has surprised “grown-ups” with her box office clout once again. The picture opened with a heavily front-loaded $17.39M on Good Friday then dropped 40% on Saturday to an estimated $10.34M, and it will reach an estimated $34M by the end of Easter weekend, making it the all-time #2 opening for the bunny holiday weekend. My Friday night early 3-day projection was for $33.6M, but then I raised my number to $39M on Saturday. As it turns out, I should have stuck with my first pass. These young skewing movies are tricky to project, and the Easter Weekend, where Saturday traditionally drops from Friday, makes it even more complicated.

Likely still the all-time Easter Weekend opening champ

ALL-TIME TOP 5 EASTER WEEKEND OPENINGS
1. Scary Movie 4 - $40.2M
2. Hannah Montana The Movie – $34M (projected)
3. Panic Room – $30M
4. The Matrix – $27.7M
5. Guess Who – $20.7M

That is also stronger than Miley Cyrus’ 3-D concert movie last year. 2008’s Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour, which was promoted as a one-week-only motion picture event and benefited from a 3-D upcharge, delivered a stunning $31.1M last February. This 16-year-old has outdone herself.

For the business overall, it appears to be a spectacular frame as Hannah and some strong holdovers will likely have scored the biggest Easter Weekend in modern box office history, surpassing 2002’s holiday 3-day. In fact, this 3-day could beat the previous record by as much as 16%.

Kristin Stewart & Jody Foster were #1 in PANIC ROOM leading Hollywood's previous best Easter Weekend

ALL-TIME BIGGEST GROSSING EASTER WEEKENDS
- totals are for the top 10 films for the holiday 3-day -
1. 4/10/09 – $126.4M [#1 - Hannah Montana The Movie - $34M] (projected)
2. 3/29/02 – $108.8M [#1 – Panic Room - $30M]
3. 4/14/06 – $107.08M [#1 – Scary Movie 4 - $40.2M]
4. 4/06/07 – $104.5M [#1 - Blades of Glory - $22.5M]
5. 3/21/08 – $94.65M [#1 - Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears A Who! - $24.6M]
6. 4/07/04 – $87.9M [#1 – Passion of the Christ - $15.2M]
7. 3/25/05 – $86.8M [#1 – Guess Who - $20.6M]
8. 4/18/03 – $83.8M [#1 – Anger Management - $25M]
9. 4/02/99 – $72.7M [#1 – The Matrix - $27.8M]
10. 4/21/00 – $70.3M [#1 – U-571 - $19.5M]

Hollywood wouldn’t be making history were it not for the continued high octane ticket sales of Fast & Furious (Universal). The fourth in the F&F franchise is down about 59% from its rubber-burning $71M opening, but it will still likely manage a an estimated $28.78M, more than enough for second-place. The Diesel-Walker-Brewster-Rodriguez “speed machine” will have about $118M in the bank on Monday, putting it miles ahead of the other movies in the franchise.

The secret to getting the F&F franchise back on track? - Just add Diesel

10-DAY GROSSES FOR FAST & FURIOUS FRANCHISE
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $118M opening (projected)
2. 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003) – $83.6M opening
3. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $77.9M opening
4. The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift (2006) – $43.2M opening

Monsters Vs. Aliens from Dreamworks Animation continues to perform in monstrous proportions. The cutting edge 3-D spectacle added another $9.07M on its third Friday (no school for lots of kids), and it has reached $22.6M thanks to big family matinees on Saturday and Sunday. MVA is the fifth-best performer for Dreamworks Animation after 17 days, trailing only the Shrek franchise and Kung Fu Panda.

TOP 10 GROSSES FOR DREAMWORKS ANIMATION AFTER 17 DAYS
1. Shrek 2 – $287M
2. Shrek the Third – $255.9M
3. Shrek – $148.3M
4. Kung Fu Panda – $155.8M
5. Monsters vs. Aliens – $141M (projected)
6. Madagascar 2 – $137.1M
7. Madagascar – $128.4M
8. Shark Tale – $118.7M
9. Over the Hedge – $112.3M
10. Bee Movie – $93.6M

But Monsters Vs. Aliens looks even better when compared to other animated films released during non-peak times. Jeffrey Katzenberg’s latest is almost keeping pace with Fox’s Ice Age: The Meltdown.

TOP GROSSES FOR NON-SUMMMER, NON-HOLIDAY ANIMATED MOVIES AFTER 17 DAYS
- excludes movies released May-August and November-December –
1. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $147.2M
2. Monsters vs. Aliens – $141M (projected)
3. Shark Tale – $118.7M
4. Dr. Suess’ Horton Hears A Who! - $177.5M
5. Ice Age – $116.8M

Seth Rogen apparently has less MALL COP appeal than Paul Blart

Not all good news for the studios. Observe & Report, the new Seth Rogen, R-rated comedy from Warner Bros, got off to a sluggish start with about $4.76M and dipped below $4M on Saturday. Reviews are very good, and this one could benefit from positive word-of-mouth over the long haul, but the Warner Bros estimate is for just $11.1M or so for the weekend.

Meanwhile, Fox’s Dragonball: Evolution is a bomb with estimated sales of just $2M on opening day and a $4.65M 3-day start (8th place). Summit’s strong-holding Knowing rounds out the top five with a possible $6.67M for a new cume of almost $68M.

FRIDAY STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $17.39M, $5,577 PTA, $17.39M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $10.6M, $3,053PTA, $99.85M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $9.07M, $2,193 PTA, $127.46M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $4.76M, $1,746 PTA, $4.76M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) – $2.4M, $821 PTA, $63.73M cume
6. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $2.35, $864 PTA, $42.93M cume
7. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.3M, $870 PTA, $54.88M cume
8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $2M, $917 PTA, $2M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $1.25M, $666 PTA, $9.26M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $1M, $509 PTA, $34.85M cume

3-DAY STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $34M, $10,904 PTA, $34M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $28.78M, $8,290 PTA, $118M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $22.61M, $5,468 PTA, $141M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $11.14M, $4,085 PTA, $11.14M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) – $6.67M, $2,280 PTA, $68M cume
6. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $6.41M, $2,426 PTA, $59M cume
7. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $5.71M, $2,098 PTA, $46.29M cume
8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $4.65M, $2,132 PTA, $4.65M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $3.43M, $1,830 PTA, $11.45M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $2.99M, $1,525 PTA, $36.84M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Universal’s Fast & Furious is likely to cross the finish line first for a second consecutive weekend, following up last weekend’s almost $71M with about $30M, which would mark a 58% drop. Still, it must be considered a triumph that the re-teaming of Vin Diesel, Paul Walker, Jordana Brewster and Michelle Rodriguez may have $120M in US sales after just 10 days. That will mean that Fast & Furious will have almost doubled the domestic gross of The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift (the last film in the franchise), and this souped-up thrill ride could be headed for $160M US.

The likely second-place finisher this weekend will be Hannah Montana The Movie, which has far less sizzle than Miley Cyrus’ 3-D concert movie last year. 2008’s Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour was promoted as a one-week-only motion picture event and benefited from a 3-D upcharge, delivering a stunning $31.1M last February 1-3. This Miley movie will perform well, but it doesn’t appear to be a sensation-in-the-making.

Make no mistake. Miley Cyrus is an industry, and business is booming. Only four years ago, she was known merely as the 12-year-old daughter of the guy who sang Achy Breaky Heart. She auditioned for the role of “the best friend” in a new series being developed by The Disney Channel about an ordinary teenager who is secretly a pop star. Instead, she won the lead. Within a year of the debut of Hannah Montana, she had two albums that debuted at #1 on Billboard’s album charts. Then came the Best of Both World’s Concert Tour and 69 sold-out arena dates across North America.

Her new movie directed by Peter Chelsom, who has directed actresses like Diane Keaton in Town and Country ($6.7M cume) and Jennifer Lopez in Shall We Dance? ($57.9M cume), seems headed to an Easter weekend opening in the mid-$20M’s. I’m calling for $24.6M and a second-place finish.

Monsters Vs. Aliens 3-D should continue to play strongly with family audiences, possibly dipping by as little as 36% to a possible $21M and a #3 finish. MVA will likely be just shy of $140M in the US by Monday.

Seth Rogen's "mall cop" in OBSERVE & REPORT is far less mass appeal than PAUL BLART

The new Seth Rogen comedy and and the second “mall cop” movie of 2009 – could finish fourth. Observe and Report is written and directed by Eastbound & Down writer/creator Jody Hill (who appeared as an actor in Superbad). This movie is apparently just as edgy as Hill’s over-the-top raunchy series, but it has a 61% Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes.

Still, it sounds like it’s not for everybody, based on this review from Rick Mele from AskMen.com. “Unlikable characters, gratuitous male nudity, a dry and sometimes nihilistic sense of humor — there are moments when you can’t believe they got away with this, at a major studio no less.” I’ve learned not to underestimate these male-skewing, Apatow-style comedies, and this one seems to have a $20M target or maybe just shy of that mark ($19.5M).

A third new release Dragonball: Evolution (Fox), based on Akira Toriyama’s wildly popular manga, could reach the low teens, skewing to Males Under 25, particularly tween boys. Several animated versions of the show have appeared on The Cartoon Network, so there is an audience, although the new live action film’s 23% Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes would seem to limit the upside to a possible $10.7M by Monday.

My predicted numbers for the weekend top ten are for $126.4M. If Hollywood hits that number, it will be the biggest-grossing top ten Easter movies ever (by a lot), surpassing the 2002 Easter weekend, which was led by David Fincher’s Panic Room starring Jodie Foster.

ALL-TIME BIGGEST GROSSING EASTER WEEKENDS
- totals are for the top 10 films for the holiday 3-day -
1. 3/29/02 – $108.8M [#1 – Panic Room - $30M]
2. 4/14/06 – $107.08M [#1 – Scary Movie 4 - $40.2M]
3. 4/06/07 – $104.5M [#1 - Blades of Glory - $22.5M]
4. 3/21/08 – $94.65M [#1 - Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears A Who! - $24.6M]
5. 4/07/04 – $87.9M [#1 – Passion of the Christ - $15.2M]
6. 3/25/05 – $86.8M [#1 – Guess Who - $20.6M]
7. 4/18/03 – $83.8M [#1 – Anger Management - $25M]
8. 4/02/99 – $72.7M [#1 – The Matrix - $27.8M]
9. 4/21/00 – $70.3M [#1 – U-571 - $19.5M]
10. 3/28/97 – $69.9M [#1 – Liar, Liar - $25.4M]

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR APRIL 10-12
1. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $30M
2. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $24.6M
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $21M
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $19.5M
5. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $10.7M
6. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $5.1M
7. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $4.9M
8. Knowing (Summit) – $4.8M
9. Adventureland (Miramax) -$3.4M
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $2.4M

Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s densely written graphic novel tumbled 24% from Friday to Saturday. Granted, midnight shows took a lot of steam out of the movie, but that’s a pretty significant fall given that the Males 25 Plus demo – a key one for this film – were not likely part of the Thursday fanboy crowd and, despite the current unemployment rate, were working on Friday.

Still, Watchmen has posted the all-time #6 opening for an R-rated film.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR AN R-RATED MOVIE
1. The Matrix Reloaded – $91.7M
2. The Passion of the Christ – $83.8M
3. 300 – $70.8M
4. Hannibal – $58M
5. Sex & The City – $57M
6. Watchmen – $55.65M (studio estimate)
7. 8 Mile – $51.2M
8. Wanted – $50.9M
9. The Matrix Revolutions – $48.5M
10. Troy – $46.8M

Hardcore fans of the comic seem satisfied by this relatively faithful adaptation, but a huge swath of the movie-going public doesn’t seem to get it. Watchmen is not a popcorn movie. It is not about characters with super powers (except Dr. Manhattan) who fly around the world trying to save the world from colorful villains. I don’t think that the average 19yo guy and his Friday night date expected to see a movie set in an alternate United States where the Vietnam War was won, Watergate never happens and Nixon has an FDR-like run, the world is on the brink of nuclear annhilation and the U.S.A. is a dystopian mess. Word-of-mouth is mixed at best.

It is possible that Watchmen will finish its run with as little as $135M-$140M. That would put it in the same range as Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony), which passed $133M this weekend. But the Adam Sandler-produced comedy has a reported budget of $26M compared to the $120M budget for the grim tentpole. In the final analysis, Blart won’t have any meaningful revenue overseas while Watchmen has a shot at as much as $200M overseas, but the complex superhero deconstruction yarn will finish well off the $450M worldwide that Snyder’s last movie 300 delivered.

Watchmen is more an exercise of intellectualism than the brute spectacle that Under 25’s have grown accustomed to. This is a movie about ideas that happens to have a bunch of cool special effects. That’s not to say that the marketing is misleading. It’s just that there is no way to properly convey what this movie is really about in :30 and :60 TV spots.

Jeffrey Dean Morgan delivers as The Comedian

All that being said, I love this movie. Snyder and screenwriters David Hayter and Alex Tse have managed to approximate the dense plotting of Moore’s original graphic novel. When characters come to blows, the fight sequences are well-choreographed and the blood and guts on the screen don’t bother me the way it does some. Watchmen is for grown-ups. It has absolutely earned its R rating, and, honestly, the average kid wouldn’t be able to figure it out anyway.

The film provokes an interesting discussion about heroes. Whether they are glowing blue beings with the ability to move matter at their will or elected leaders making decisions for the “common good,” citizens cannot ever take things at face value. The end doesn’t always justify the means, and the means must always be questioned.

Jackie Earle Haley as Kelly Leak and all grown up

The cast here is uniformly good. The standout is Jackie Earle Haley as Rohrschach. After playing Kelly Leak in the original Bad News Bears, he fell off the map. His career was resurrected with a creepy, Oscar-nominated turn in Little Children a few years back, and now he has scored again as the snarling, angry and morally uncompromising Rohrschach. Jeffrey Dean Morgan, best known for his work on Grey’s Anatomy, is the embodiment of cynical evil as The Comedian (and he has a more-than-passing resemblance to Javier Bardem). I also enjoyed Carla Gugino as the original Silk Spectre/Sally Jupiter (and old age makeup in movies continues to improve).

Would Minutemen make a good Watchmen prequel?

March is a solid release frame for Watchmen with spring break coming in the next 6 weeks for high schoolers and college students, but the legs will not be very long for this one. My hunch is that $23M is the best case scenario for second weekend. In the end the movie will likely be profitable when the ancillaries are added, but it’s hard to imagine what a sequel would look like (even if one was attempted). The best bet might be a prequel about the Minutemen.

In other box office news, Tyler Perry continues to add to the haul for his all-time best grossing movie Madea Goes To Jail. The comedy will sell another $8.8M in tickets good for #2 for a new cume of $76.5M. Fox’s long-running French import Taken continues holding strong with $7.45M or so and a new domestic take of $118M, pushing the movie to about $200M worldwide (Luc Besson has got to be thinking sequel here). Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Seartchlight) and Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) will round out the top 5.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $55.65M, $15,413 PTA, $55.65M cume
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $8.8M, $4,091 PTA, $76.5M cume
3. Taken (Fox) – $7.45M, $2,470 PTA, $118.04M cume
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $6.92M, $2,396 PTA, $125.44M cume
5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $4.2M, $1,642 PTA, $133.64M cume
6. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $4.02M, $1,644 PTA, $84.64M cume
7. Coraline (Focus) – $3.31M, $1,691 PTA, $65.68M cume
8. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $3.12M, $1,363 PTA, $38.35M cume
9. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) – $2.75M, $2,183 PTA, $16.79M cume
10. Fired Up (Sony) – $2.6M, $1,446 PTA, $13.36M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The brand new film adaptation of the classic graphic comic Watchmen is a hit of monstrous proportions on its opening weekend, but not everyone loves it. In fact, not only is there a prominent character named Rohrschach (played by Oscar nominee Jackie Earle Haley), the film itself is serving as a Rohrschach Test for critics, fanboys and the broader public.

The Zack Snyder-directed $120M epic started with $4.5M in Thursday midnight business which is outstanding. There was no way for Watchmen to approach the $18.5M midnight start for lat summer’s The Dark Knight. First off, it is March and not the middle of summer blockbuster season. Kids have school. People are working. These are not the lazy days of July when it is easier for many to see a movie at midnight on Thursday, and hit the office late on Friday. The other factor is the movie’s rating. This is an R-rated movie, not PG-13 like The Dark Knight.

Jackie Earle Haley, who played Kelly Leak in the original Bad News Bears, is wearing the Rorschach mask in Watchmen

The Thursday night start for Watchmen was 44% better than the $2.5M midnight shows for director Snyder’s last epic 300 (also rated R). It was also virtually double the $2.3M midnight start for November’s Quantum of Solace (PG-13). Those are much better comparables than The Dark Knight or say last year’s PG-13 rated Twilight, which grabbed a reported $7M midnight preview gross.

Watchmen was spectacular at the box office Friday, and, after consulting with multiple sources, I am projecting a staggering $25.2M (that does include midnight previews) for Friday. That is approximately the 32nd-best opening day in modern box office history, but it is the all-time #12 opening day for a non-sequel.

ALL-TIME TOP 15 OPENING DAYS FOR A NON-SEQUEL
1. Spider-Man – $39.4M
2. Twilight – $35.9M
3. Iron Man – $35.2M
4. Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone – $32.3M
5. The Simpsons Movie – $30.7M
6. I Am Legend – $30M
7. The Da Vinci Code – $28.6M
8. 300 - $28.1M
9. Transformers – $27.8M
10. Sex & The City – $26.7M
11. The Passion of the Christ – $26.5M
12. Watchmen – $25.2M (projected)
13. Planet of the Apes – $24.6M
14. Hulk – $24.2M
15. The Day After Tomorrow – $23.5M

When the numbers get this big, and the movie is this front-loaded, 3-day projections are problematic, and I am revising downward from the $62.5M I published Friday night (my final prediction on published Wednesday was $63M). It’s looking more like $57M as of Saturday morning. Running time is killing this movie. If the number holds, it would still give Watchmen the all-time #5 opening weekend for an R-rated movie, trailing only Matrix Reloaded, Passion of the Christ (which had better source material contrary to what fanboys may believe), Snyder’s 300 and Hannibal.

Still the all-time biggest opening for an R-rated movie

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR AN R-RATED MOVIE
1. The Matrix Reloaded – $91.7M
2. The Passion of the Christ – $83.8M
3. 300 – $70.8M
4. Hannibal – $58M
5. Watchmen – $57M (projected)
6. Sex & The City – $57M
7. 8 Mile – $51.2M
8. Wanted – $50.9M
9. The Matrix Revolutions – $48.5M
10. Troy – $46.8M

One interesting facet of this movie is the fact that three different major studios have a piece of the action. Warner Bros owns domestic distribution rights, Paramount has the foreign and Fox, which won a very public battle over the rights to the movie, is getting 5%-8.5% of gross participation that will be set by the film’s worldwide revenue success. That puts an awful lot of powerful Hollywood types on the same team, working to ensure Warchmen’s success.

Critics are divided about Watchmen as a movie. The movie has a 65% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but the most established critics – what Rotten Tomatoes classifies as the Cream of the Crop – has generated a lower 43% positive reviews. Here’s a sampling from writers that I know and like.

Joe Morgenstern of the Wall Street Journal –
“The reverence is inert, the violence noxious, the mythology murky, the tone grandiose, the texture glutinous. It’s an alternate version of The Incredibles minus the delight.”

Pete Hammond, Hollywood.com -
“A stunning, mind-bending, breathtaking densely-packed motion picture experience.”

David Poland, Movie City News -
“The problem with Watchmen is, in the end, that it is a bit of a big stiff bore for two acts with an improved, but mostly uninspired third act. Look at Watchmen from the back to the front. Do you care about what has happened to any of these characters, except Rorschach, by the time you leave the theater?”

Roger Ebert, Chicago Sun-Times -
“After the revelation of The Dark Knight here is Watchmen, another bold exercise in the liberation of the superhero movie. It’s a compelling visceral film.”

Watchmen author Alan Moore

Obviously, the reviews are all over the board. Although, there’s no question that the writer of the original Watchmen graphic novel, the enigmatic Alan Moore, hates the movie, it’s just as certain that he has not and will never see it. In fact, he put a curse on the whole project.

Watchmen director Zack Snyder

Director Zack Snyder signed on for a gig that proved too tough and too problematic for the likes of brilliant filmmakers like Terry Gilliam (The Fisher King, Twelve Monkeys), Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler, The Fountain) and Paul Greengrass (United 93, The Bourne Ultimatum). Perhaps Alan Moore is right. His book is “inherently unfilmable.” There’s no way to pack the dense details of the brilliant 1986 landmark into a movie – even when it’s 2 hours, 43 minutes long.

I am a huge fan of the graphic novel having read it in college. I deliberately didn’t re-read Watchmen in advance of the movie because I think it needs to be judged as its own individual piece of work. Snyder’s problem all along has been, “How do you make a movie that both satisfies hardcore fans and is accessible enough for people who have never even heard of Watchmen?”

For the time being, the spectacle, the buzz, the fanboy fervor and a pitch-perfect marketing campaign have set the stage for an historic 3-day opening. Once the mainstream audience discovers that Watchmen is more about ideas than it is about heroes with capes, it will be interesting to see how it holds up. For comparison’s sake, 300 fell 53% from its opening weekend of $70.8M, but the drop-off will almost certainly be bigger here.

300 ended up at $210.6M domestic and $456M worldwide, but Watchmen is likely to fall short of those numbers. In fact, whereas 300 finished with a 2.97 multiple (2.97 X $70.8M = total domestic box), Watchmen is more likely to be in the 2.4-2.6 range. That would translate to a, still impressive, final US gross of $137M-$148M. Given that spring break is coming for high schoolers and college kids, I think the movie can reach the upper end of that range.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $25.2M, $6,979 PTA, $25.2M cume
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.5M, $1,162 PTA, $70.2M cume
3. Taken (Fox) – $2.3M, $763 PTA, $112.9M cume
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.05M, $709 PTA, $120.56M cume
5. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $1.3M, $532 PTA, $81.92M cume
6. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $1.1M, $430 PTA, $130.5M cume
7. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $1M, $437 PTA, $36.2M cume
8. Fired Up (Sony) – $920,000, $512 PTA, $11.68M cume
9. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) – $850,000, $666 PTA, $14.85M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $800,000, $408 PTA, $63.1M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $57M, $15,785 PTA, $57M cume
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $9M, $4,184 PTA, $76.7M cume
3. Taken (Fox) – $7.75M, $2,570 PTA, $118.04M cume
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $7.58M, $2,625 PTA, $126.1M cume
5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $4.5M, $1,759 PTA, $133.5M cume
6. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $4.05M, $1,659 PTA, $84.68M cume
7. Coraline (Focus) – $3.5M, $1,787 PTA, $66M cume
8. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) – $3.1M, $2,380 PTA, $17M cume
9. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $3M, $1,310 PTA, $38.5M cume
10. Fired Up (Sony) – $2.75M, $1,520 PTA, $13.5M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.