Back in 1999, a movie called “The Blair Witch Project” burst into the American pop culture consciousness from seemingly nowhere.  It appeared to be (and was marketed to viewers as) a raw documentary film about three student filmmakers and their tragic last days experiencing supernatural forces while lost in the wilderness, but in reality it was a fictional film made for under $30,000 by a team of indie filmmakers and actors and had caused a sensation at the Sundance Film Festival months before. 

The resulting hysteria of “was that real or not?” among the average, uninformed horror-film fans drove the film to a massive $150 million gross in the US alone, and inspired dozens of spoof films and cheapo horror films in its wake. But no one’s been able to catch that lightning in a bottle of mass mental manipulation twice – until now. 

“Paranormal Activity” uses the same conceit of “found footage” depicting the tragic consequences of supernatural attacks on seemingly normal people. In this case, it follows the events that befall young shacked-up couple Micah (Micah Stone) and Katie (Katie Featherston) after Micah buys a video camera in an attempt to see whether they can catch on video exactly what’s causing awful noises to waft through their apartment and doors to slam viciously while they sleep at night. 

Katie is more inclined to believe there’s a supernatural element to things than the skeptical Micah, partly because she reveals that she’s experienced strange behavior before from what seemed like spirits at other times in her life, no matter where she’s moved. Micah starts to believe pretty soon as well, however, especially after he leaves a Ouija board out and notices that it’s very definitely been used for a message from the beyond. Soon, a paranormal expert comes over to check things out and says he definitely thinks there’s trouble brewing. 

“Paranormal” uses a string of subtle effects to convey the slow yet steadily growing horror felt by the couple as they experience all manner of noises, slammed doors, shaken chandeliers, flipped-on TVs and eventually the sight of hideous claw marks in some strategically placed powder on the bedroom floor. The lead actors are total unknowns making their feature film debuts, effectively adding to the feeling that this is real rather than a predictable cinematic adventure sure to be survived by a star like George Clooney or Angelina Jolie. 

And yet, while first-time writer-director Oren Peli crafts a haunting, desolate look for the film with its frequent use of shadowy night footage, very few moments of the film provide a true scare that makes audience members jump out of their seats or shriek in terror. Having seen it with a crowd of mostly underage teenagers who should have been perfect targets for a truly scary film, I can attest that the loudest freakouts of the film – other than its undeniably disturbing final moments – came when audience members dropped bottles loudly at tense moments, provoking false panic immediately followed by whoops of laughter, and at the film’s conclusion, a chorus of disappointed comments. 

That reaction was surprising, because distributor Paramount Pictures is turning “Paranormal” into a box-office juggernaut by using a viral Internet campaign in which a million people had to electronically “demand” the film be released widely before the studio would release it nationally (surprise, the campaign worked). Having seen through the hype after surviving a screening, one can only hope that the “demand” won’t keep growing once word gets out about its almost-nonexistent plotline and simply sporadic scares. 

Advance hype in a Los Angeles Times’ article on the film stated that Steven Spielberg himself went crazy for “Paranormal,” finding it so terrifying that he believed his advance screening tape was haunted and that he brought it back to his office the next day wrapped in a plastic trash bag for fear of touching it. If this is what terrifies the legendary director of “Jaws” and writer of “Poltergeist” these days, then perhaps he’s made a few too many family films. 

He should have also kept the tape in the trash bag and spared the rest of us our ten dollars.

I wrote about this two years ago, just when Hasbro and Paramount execs decided to give GI Joe a makeover. Back then they felt the world would be too pissed at us for getting rid of Saddam Hussein to go see a movie about an American hero. As it turns out, they were wrong – the backlash over Saddam’s death had less impact than Norman Fell’s.

But for a moment, let’s attempt to use Donny’s logic on other flicks. “Sex and the City,” my favorite film – made a pile of money around the world, and it was about five American chicks exercising their rights to both unfettered capitalism and sex. According to Deutsch, it would have been better to make them all multi-racial, transgendered dolphins – and stationed them in Brussels in a cool undersea condo shaped like Earth. Granted, that does sound awesome – but it probably would have been less successful than the original concept (which made me cry).

Fact is, our mainstream media feels awkward about anything “American,” and finds the idea of an international force (made up of everybody!) stamping out evil far more palatable than America running the show. But hey, that fantasy doesn’t exist – and if it ever did, Americans would have to run it.

The ugly truth: the world loves America more than MSNBC talking heads are willing to admit. And they like our heroes even more: our Rambos, John McClanes, Supermans, Dirty Harrys and Charlotte Yorks. We make great heroes, because our country is full of them.

Unlike MSNBC.

They’re just full of it.

Tonight we’ve got: Congressman Thaddeus McCotter, comedian Paul Mercurio and Patti Ann Browne. Plus more junk!

A shiny new Enterprise is luring in a new generation of STAR TREK fans

J.J. Abrams is officially the Lazarus of movie directors as his all-new Star Trek has gone “Boldly Gone Where No Star Trek Movie has Gone Before.” With a cast of relative unknowns, the 42-year-old has resurrected a franchise that had been killed by insular “nerdyness” and timid imagination. The Gene Rodenberry creation didn’t so much bomb as it died slowly over a period of years. First, the 2002 movie Star Trek: Nemesis starring the Next Generation cast disappointed with a meager $43.3M domestic. Then, the final TV series Enterprise, which starred Scott Bakula, was not embraced by core fans or broader audiences and was canceled after four seasons, ending May 13, 2005.

Director J.J. Abrams will definitely "Live long and prosper"

Now riding a staggering 96% Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes – that’s 96% of America’s movie critics issuing positive reviews – The Enterprise is riding high again thanks to the creator of TV hits Alias and Lost. Try getting 96% of any group to agree on anything. It’s no small feat. Compare Star Trek’s RT score against the ratings for the last 5 Best Picture winners.

STAR TREK has better reviews than Oscars darling SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORES FOR THE LAST 5 OSCAR WINNERS
2004 – Million Dollar Baby – 91% Fresh
2005 – Crash – 75% Fresh
2006 – The Departed – 92% Fresh
2007 – No Country For Old Men – 94% Fresh
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire – 94% Fresh

The original STAR TREK cast (above) with the next generation of franchise stars

With the ringing endorsement of tough-to-please critics, Star Trek hit warp speed at the box office last night with lightly-promoted preview screenings starting at 7pm. The impeccably-reviewed feature film seized an estimated $7M or so in Thursday night ticket sales. The idea may have been to get some of the hardcore Trekkies and Trekkers out of the way, clearing multiplexes for mainstream movie audiences today, and they have showed up in massive numbers.

William Shatner (left) with Captain Kirk 2.0 Chris Pine

With Chris Pine (Bottle Shock) in the legendary role of Captain Kirk and Zachary Quinto (NBC’s Heroes) wearing the pointy ears made famous by Leonard Nimoy, Star Trek has soared to a history-making $26M on its official opening day according to multiple studio execs, double the previous-best opening day for any movie in the franchise. That means in the first 29 hours of general release, the re-imagined sci-fi blockbuster has delivered an estimated $33M.

STAR TREK: FIRST CONTACT had the previous-best opening day in franchise history

ALL-TIME TOP 5 OPENING DAYS FOR STAR TREK MOVIES
1. Star Trek (2009) – $26M [$33M in its first 29 hours]
2. Star Trek: First Contact (1996) – $13M
3. Star Trek: Generations (1994) – $9.7M
4. Star Trek: Insurrection (1998) – $9.5M
5. Star Trek: Nemesis (2002) – $7.7M

How will the weekend play out? The Thursday night preview screenings will probably make Star Trek a bit less front-loaded. In fact, I’m guessing that, based on word-of-mouth and its family-friendly PG-13 rating, my sources believe that the movie could get a 5% boost on Saturday to a possible $27.3M, followed by an aggressive Mother’s Day drop of 40% on Sunday. That would mean a 4-day gross of almost $77M or so.

The great news for Paramount and Abrams and Pine and Quinto and the rest of the cast is that Star Trek will almost certainly have the best legs of any of this summer’s major tent-pole movies. Rank-and-file moviegoers are likely to discover Star Trek for the first time in coming weeks or, now that Trek is cool again, it may rekindle interest with core fans who rejected the most recent incarnations.

STAR TREK could have "legs" like BATMAN BEGINS

It will not be a surprise to see Star Trek sail past $200M. After all, 2005’s Batman Begins performed that way. The Christopher Nolan Batman reboot opened on a Wednesday with $15M and had banked $72.9M in 5 days. Based on that movie’s Friday-thru-Sunday of $48.7M, the first Batman movie in 8 years reached its $205M domestic total at a 4.2 multiple (4.2 X $48.7 got Nolan’s original to $205M). Anticipating a 4.2 multiple for Star Trek is probably overreaching, but a 3.4-3.5 multiple is possible. That would propel Abrams and company to well past $200M.

Competing studio execs  tell me that X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) took a big tumble as expected. The Hugh Jackman X-Men spin-off only mustered $9.15M or so on its second Friday, but it will still likely top $27.95M for the weekend, down about 67%. Meanwhile, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) coaxed about $3M to start the frame, and it will likely be helped by Mother’s Day, grabbing a possible $10M, down a mere 35% from last weekend.

Beyonce continues to sell tickets in OBSESSED

Obsessed, the low budget sizzler from Sony Screen Gems, continues to outperform its low expectations with $2M on Friday, which pushes the Beyonce catfight flick past $50M. The thriller should finish the 3-day with about $6.25M and a spectacular $55.89M by Monday.

The urban-geared comedy Next Day Air (Summit) got off to a disappointing start with just $1.25M (likely #5 for the day), and it will drift down the top ten to #6 for the weekend with a meager $4.1M or so from its thousand or so playdates.

The Zac Efron comedy 17 Again (Warner Bros) will likely spend another weekend in the top five with about $1.15M on Friday and about $4.5M for 3 days. That will give the Efron vehicle a new domestic cume of about $54.26M.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Star Trek (Paramount) – $26M, $6,755 PTA, $33M
2. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $9.15M, $2,231 PTA, $111.77M cume
3. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $3.05M, $961 PTA, $22.84M
4. Obsessed (Sony) – $2M, $769 PTA, $51.64M cume
5. NEW – Next Day Air (Summit) – $1.25M, $1,098 PTA, $1.25M  cume
6. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $1.15M, $396 PTA, $50.91M cume
7. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1M, $478 PTA, $20.89M cume
8. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $847,000, $388 PTA, $184.36M cume
9. Earth (Disney) – $697,000, $389 PTA, $24.29M cume
10. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $690,000, $300 PTA, $72.35M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Star Trek (Paramount) – $69.68M, $18,103 PTA, $76.68M
2. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $27.95M, $6,814 PTA, $130.57M cume
3. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $10.06M, $3,170 PTA, $29.86M
4. Obsessed (Sony) – $6.25M, $2,402 PTA, $55.89M cume
5. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $4.5M, $1,550 PTA, $54.26M cume
6. NEW – Next Day Air (Summit) – $4.1M, $3,603 PTA, $4.1M  cume
7. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.6M, $1,722 PTA, $23.49M cume
8. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.55M, $1,625 PTA, $187.06M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $2.62M, $1,140 PTA, $74.29M cume
10. Earth (Disney) – $2.44M, $1,361 PTA, $26.03M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

William Shatner (left) with Captain Kirk 2.0 Chris Pine

Keep in mind that Paramount never changed its Star Trek marketing to promote the 7pm Thursday start, so the opening night audience was likely heavy on Trekkers or Trekkies (not sure which term is “politically correct” anymore). So this was a “soft” opening and what amounts to a night of word-of-mouth screenings. Keep in mind that Transformers premiered during the summer when kids are more available while Star Trek has made its premiere during the school year.

The reviews are through-the-roof at 96% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, and, as a topic, Star Trek is trending at #1 on Twitter. The reviews in the Twitterverse are just as positive.

just got back from seeing Star Trek. I am not typically a fan of sci-fi, but I really liked this movie.

Star Trek was surprisingly good, and even Star Trek newbies like myself could enjoy it.

I saw the new Star Trek last night with my son, who just turned 7. It was great; we both loved it. Next gen of Trekies/SciFi buffs is born.

I’m still pumped up from having seen Star Trek. Looking forward to seeing it tomorrow and Sunday [diff. grps].

still thinkin’ of how f*****’ awesome Star Trek was. now wanting a phaser to set from “stun” to “kill”

Go see star trek immediately. Incredible!

The new Star Trek movie was great when I went in with low expectations. It is what Nemesis was trying to accomplish and succeeded much …

for those of you who were curious. Star Trek rocked my FACE OFF. It was Shamazing! <3 Spok…*droooool*

Star Trek is fresh, funny, exciting and – biggest surprise of all – emotionally engaging.

Now the question is, “How high will The Enterprise fly on its opening day?” Seems like $20M is a lock, but it could be bigger. If the movie does $20M today, the 4-day should be $63M-$65M. $22M or better should send this spectacularly-reviewed blockbuster past $70M. If the day is $25M or better, the number for the opening 4 days could start with an 8.

I’ll be online with my Exclusive Early Friday & 3-Day Estimates as early as humanly possible tonight (Friday).

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

As of Wednesday night, Star Trek is cruising with 94% Fresh (positive) reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, and critics are slinging some seriously glowing hyperbole.

“Paced at warp speed with spectacular action sequences rendered brilliantly and with a cast so expert that all the familiar characters are instantly identifiable, the film gives Paramount Pictures a new lease of life on its franchise.”
– Ray Bennett, HOLLYWOOD REPORTER

“It’s an exciting, stellar-yet-earthy blast that successfully blends the hip and the classic.”
– Joe Neumaier, NEW YORK DAILY NEWS

“Trading on affections sustained over 40 years of popular culture, STAR TREK does what a franchise reboot rarely does. It reminds us why we loved these characters in the first place.”
– Ty Burr, BOSTON GLOBE

“Blasting onto the screen at warp speed and remaining there for two hours, the new and improved STAR TREK will transport fans to sci-fi nirvana.”
– Todd McCarthy, VARIETY

LOST and ALIAS creator J.J. Abrams has successfully rebooted STAR TREK

Let’s be honest. Prior to what, by all accounts, is Abrams’ full-on Lazarus-style resurrection of Kirk, Spock and The Enterprise, Star Trek was dead. Worse than dead, it has been considered “uncool.” That’s what Paramount is fighting in the marketplace, and realistically, even in its peak as a movie franchise, it wasn’t a powerhouse.

The biggest opening weekend for a Star Trek movie was 1996’s Star Trek: First Contact with $30.7M and the top grossing title ever was Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home (with that ridiculous humpback whale storyline), which surpassed $109M. Consider this. Here are the top five opening days for movies in the Star Trek franchise.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 OPENING DAYS FOR STAR TREK MOVIES
1. Star Trek: First Contact (1996) – $13M
2. Star Trek: Generations (1994) – $9.7M
3. Star Trek: Insurrection (1998) – $9.5M
4. Star Trek: Nemesis (2002) – $7.7M
5. Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home (1986) – $7M

Erik Estrada as Ponch & Larry Wilcox as Jon Baker with Chris Pine's dad Robert, who played Sgt. Joe Getraer

When journeyman actor Robert Pine, best known for playing Sgt. Joe Getraer on the late 70’s TV hit ChiPs, appeared as an Akritirian Ambassador named Liria on the series Star Trek Voyager (the TV series with Kate Mulgrew as Captain), he could have never imagined that his son Chris would someday play Captain Kirk, but the 28-year-old is now in the Trek’s most pivotal role. He was excellent in a little movie called Bottle Shock last year, but aside from that, and roles in The Princess Diaries 2 and Smokin’ Aces, he is basically an unknown.

Original Gene Rodenberry STAR TREK television cast above and Abrams' 2009 casting choices below

In fact, the new Star Trek is filled with actors who are more-or-less unknown. Simon Pegg, the brilliant UK star of Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz and cast as the colorful Scotty here, is probably the biggest name in the cast along with John Cho from the Harold & Kumar movies, playing Sulu. But these are all talented actors who will wear well as the franchise turns into a steady hit machine for Paramount. Fans of NBC’s Heroes already know Zachary Quinto who gets to don Spock’s pointy ears and Chekov is being portrayed by one of my favorite young actors, 20-year-old Anton Yelchin, who was heartbreaking in the gritty Alpha Dog and showed a lighter touch in Charlie Bartlett. Trekkers are also likely to take to the sexy Zoe Saldana (Drumline, Guess Who?) who steps into Nichelle Nichols’ shoes as Uhura and will appear in James Cameron’s long-awaited Avatar at the end of the year.

The appropriate movie to look to for box office guidance is 2005’s Batman Begins. Great filmmaker (Christopher Nolan), spectacular reviews, but the franchise was dead and uncool after 1997’s ridiculous Batman & Robin. The reboot 8 years later opened on a Wednesday with $15M and had banked $72.9M in 5 days (the Friday-thru-Sunday was $48.7M). That lays the groundwork for an accurate prediction for Star Trek.

My bet is on a possible $65M for 4 days. With Thursday preview screenings starting at 7pm, Star Trek could snag as much as $8M on Thursday night (the Trekkers will be out in full force). Then Friday could be something in the $20.5M range with a slight uptick of 5% on Saturday to a possible $21.6M followed by a standard 30% Sunday drop to about $15M.

Once audiences realize that Star Trek is light year better than previous movies in the franchise (and last weekend’s Wolverine), the picture will play and play and play. I think that, of all of the major studio releases this summer, Star Trek may have the “longest legs.” If the movie opens within 5% of my number or bigger, the multiple (the number by which you multiply the opening weekend in order to arrive at the final domestic gross) could be 3.4-3.5, which would push J.J. Abrams reinvented Rodenberry opus to something in the $220M-$230M range.

I am anticipating a steep drop of 65%-70% for X-Men Origins: Wolverine, and producer/star Hugh Jackman will be forced to settle for a second weekend of $27M-$30M. That would still be a nifty 10-day gross of $130M or so.

Finally, Next Day Air (Summit), a low budget, R-rated urban comedy starring Donald Faison (Scrubs), Mike Epps (Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins), Wood Harris (The Wire) and Mos Def (Cadillac Records), will open in the shadow of the retooled U.S.S. Enterprise and is unlikely to wrap up the weekend with any more than $6M.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF MAY 8-10
1. NEW – Star Trek (Paramount) – $65M (includes Thursday previews)
2. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $30.6M
3. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $8.8M
4. Obsessed (Sony) – $6.7M
5. NEW – Next Day Air (Summit) – $6M
6. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $3.8M
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.7M
8. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.3M
9. Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $2.6M
10. Earth (Disney) – $2.4M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Star-turned-producer Hugh Jackman has scored his second-biggest opening ever and, easily, his biggest as a solo star. Wolverine has mauled the competition with a massive $34.75M opening day (including $5M or so in Thursday midnight sales). That could translate to a 3-day of $86.8M, getting Hollywood’s most lucrative season off to a spectacular start.

The stars of WOLVERINE (from the left): Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool, Taylor Kitsch as Gambit, Hugh Jackman as Wolverine, Liev Schrieber as Sabretooth and Lynn Collins as Kayla Silverfox

The X-Men spin-off, which has been made for substantially less than the $210M budget ponied up for to produce 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand, becomes the all-time fourth-best first-weekend-of-May opening, trailing only Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M), the original 2002 Spider-Man ($114.8M) and last May’s Iron Man ($98.6M). Wolverine has also posted one of the top seven opening days ever for a comic book adaptation.

ALL-TIME BEST OPENINGS DAYS FOR COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS
1. The Dark Knight – $67.1M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $59.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand – $45.1M
4. Spider-Man 2 – $40.4M
5. Spider-Man – $39.4M
6. Iron Man – $35.2M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $34.75M (estimated)
8. X2: X-Men United – $31.2M
9. 300 – $28.1M
10. Watchmen – $24.5M

And, as comic book movies go, Jackman’s solo effort has cut and sliced through the pack to become the all-time seventh-best 3-day start.

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE will not match the opening weekend of last year's summer starter IRON MAN

ALL-TIME BEST OPENING WEEKENDS FOR A COMIC BOOK ADAPTATION
1. The Dark Knight – $158.4M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $151.1M
3. Spider-Man – $114.8M
4. X-Men: The Last Stand – $102.7M
5. Iron Man – $98.6M
6. Spider-Man 2 – $88.1M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $86.8M (projected)
8. X2: X-Men United – $85.5M
9. 300 – $70.8M
10. Hulk – $62.1M

How does Jackman hold his silverware during dinner?

Jackman himself is getting lots of positive feedback on his personal Twitter page, but there is some real negative feedback in the Twitterverse. Here are some actually Tweets from movie fans that have been posted in the last couple of hours.

if its wolverine dont waste your time

Wolverine sucks!

Wolverine: not too bad. Better than the horrible second X-Men movie. Coolest thing was preview for District-9.

I went and paid for 2 movie tix to see that damn Wolverine movie. I just wasted my money.

Wolverine was ok – too much smooshed into one movie and too many things attempted to be neatly wrapped up and squared away.

Saw Wolverine. It was weak.

What does Hugh Jackman being a hottie have 2 do w/ how crappy the movie is?

Oh my God Wolverine was just as bad as everyone was saying.

out to see Wolverine! Ill let you guys know how bad it is.

“don’t waste your money” unless you’re a huge fan. Like 2nd X-files bad.

So, it appears that fans are as tepid about this movie as film critics. X-Men Origins: Wolverine will likely be very front-loaded both for the weekend and the long haul. I’m guessing that the weekend could play out like this. Wolverine did $5M Thursday at midnight and has added another $29.75M Friday (for a $34.75M opening day). Then Saturday, the movie may drop 9% to $31.6M or so, followed by a Sunday dip of 36% to just over $20M.

Jackman is not just another action star; Here he is in his Tony-winning performance in Broadway's BOY FROM OZ

After speaking with a number of competing studios, the consensus is that Wolverine will have a multiple of less than two. (The multiple is the number by which you multiply the opening weekend to arrive at the ultimate domestic gross.) With a multiple in the 1.8-1.9 range, the summer’s first movie spectacle will finish at $156-$165M. That’s a good, but not great number. Meanwhile, Star Trek (Paramount) has a chance to be this year’s Iron Man, an early May release that plays deep into the summer at a high multiple in the 3.2-3.3 range.

Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner are creating some sparks in GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST

The other wide release in the marketplace this weekend is the poorly-reviewed Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros). With Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner as the romantic leads and an assist from Oscar winner Michael Douglas, Ghosts has performed decently, especially with Females 25 Plus. The Mark Waters-directed rom-com coaxed an estimated $6M in opening day sales and will likely reach about $16.5M for the weekend. That’s would be 12% stronger than last year’s first-weekend-of-May chick-flick counter programming, Made of Honor, which finished second to Iron Man with $14.7M.

Ali Larter (center) and Beyonce (right) come to blows over THE WIRE's Idris Elba in OBSESSED

Last weekend’s box office champ Obsessed (Sony) – the one where Beyonce “tromps a tramp” (played by Ali Larter from Heroes) – took a nosedive with just $4.2M or so on Friday. It seems headed for an estimated 3-day of $12.39M, down 57% from its opening, but the genre pic with a budget of only $20M will still have $47M in the bank by Monday. That’s a very profitable little movie.

Tween are pushing Zac Efron's 17 AGAIN past the $50M mark

The Warner Bros comedy 17 Again, starring tween dream Zac Efron, continues to perform well with about $2.22M to start the weekend and a possible $6.62M for the frame. Zac’s high-concept comedy will have topped $48.7M domestic in its first 17 days of release.

The new nature doc EARTH is really just the Cliff Notes for the extraordinary BBC miniseries PLANET EARTH

Disney’s Earth, a 90-minute version of the BBC’s 11-hour 2006 miniseries Planet Earth, will round out the top five for the first official weekend of summer. The nature doc grabbed $1.45M on its second Friday and is targeting $5.81M and a new 12-day cume of $23.47M by Monday.

The other wide release is the 3-D pic Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions). It is on just over 1,100 screens, but has managed only about $300,000 on opening day. I did see a commercial for Terra during American Idol this week, so there was some money spent, but it couldn’t have been much. Despite respectable reviews, this cg animated flick is destined for no more than $1M. That’s a full-on disaster.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $34.75M, $8,478 PTA, $34.75M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $6M, $1,890 PTA, $6M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $4.2M, $1,671 PTA, $39M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $2.22M, $682 PTA, $44.36M cume
5. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.7M, $836 PTA, $14.2M cume
6. Earth (Disney) – $1.45M, $804 PTA, $19.11M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.41M, $537 PTA, $178M cume
8. Fighting (Rogue) – $1.4M, $608 PTA, $14.73M cume
9. State of Play (Universal) – $1.28M, $527 PTA, $28.51M cume
10. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $1.1M, $390 PTA, $67.88M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – $300,000, $258 PTA, $300,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $86.8M, $21,194 PTA, $86.8M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $16.5M, $5,197 PTA, $16.5M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $12.39M, $4,928 PTA, $47.19M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $6.62M, $2,034 PTA, $48.76M cume
5. Earth (Disney) – $5.81M, $3,221 PTA, $23.47M cume
6. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.7M, $2,804 PTA, $18.2M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.65M, $2,152 PTA, $182.25M cume
8. State of Play (Universal) – $4.31M, $1,765 PTA, $31.54M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $3.96M, $1,405 PTA, $70.74M cume
10. Fighting (Rogue) – $3.76M, $1,630 PTA, $17.1M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – $1M, $878 PTA, $1M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Look at these numbers.

X-Men – estimated budget – $75M
$20.8M opening day – $54.5M opening weekend – $152.3M domestic – $296.3M global

X-2: X-Men United – estimated budget – $110M
$31.25M opening day – $85.5M opening weekend – $214.9M domestic – $407.7M global

X-Men: The Last Stand – estimated budget – $210M
$45.1M opening day – $102.7M opening weekend – $224.4M domestic – $459.3M global

It’s pretty clear that, with no cost-containment on budget (especially the big cast), the X-Men franchise had reached the point of diminishing returns. So, X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox), debuting Friday, is a sequel, but, technically, a spin-off, without costing as much as a true sequel would.

A very different Hugh Jackman won the Tony for Best Actor for his performance in Broadway's BOY FROM OZ

I’m guessing that Hugh Jackman is working for a great price, also serving as a producer with a healthy backend participation. The rest of the name cast is essentially limited to Liev Schrieber (The Manchurian Candidate, The Omen), Dominic Monaghan (The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, ABC’s Lost) and Ryan Reynolds (Blade: Trinity, The Amityville Horror), and there is no Bryan Singer (X-Men, X-2) or Brett Ratner (X-Men 3) to direct. Instead, Fox and Jackman settled on the much less expensive, but still Academy Award-winning director Gavin Hood (Tsotsi). Now with a scaled-back story and cast, the movie comes in at a much more studio-friendly price while, hopefully, still packing an X-Men-style box office punch.

Aussie director Gavin Hood accepting his Oscar for TSOTSI

Fox has smartly positioned Wolverine as the first movie into the summer fray, and that is important because this is the one May huge release that may not have long legs (I believe that J.J. Abrams’ Star Trek will squash it like a bug on the all-new Enterprise windshield next week). I am told that pre-release industry tracking is in the stratosphere for this X-Men spin-off – Un-Aided Awareness, Total Awareness, Definite Interest and First Choice are all through the roof. When the tracking data gets this heated, predictions are dicey at best, but I am calling for $92M domestic. That would be just a tick lower than last year’s first-weekend-of-May starter Iron Man, which was $98.6M.

Without claws: Hugh Jackman as host of the 2009 Academy Awards

For those of you who may be reading my column for the first time, that $92M figure is my “prediction.” That means that based on my experience, conversations with sources at competing studios and interpretation of pre-release industry tracking, I am making a well-educated guess as to how X-Men Origins: Wolverine will deliver in opening weekend US sales. (The road is littered with other well-educated guessers, and I have missed substantially on a few predictions in the past.)

When I start writing on Friday, it will be based on early ticket sales. That will make my numbers “projections” instead of “predictions.” My Early Friday and 3-Day “projections” are historically off by no more than 5%-8%.

For the record, I believe that Mr. Jackman and the folks at Fox will be quite happy with anything north of $80M, but they are definitely working to keep expectations lower. In the end, I think they’ll be in the $90M-$95M range for 3-days.

Over the long haul, WOLVERINE will be no match for last year's IRON MAN

Ultimately, Iron Man performed like a monster deep into the summer. It was followed by the box office misfire Speed Racer on the following Friday, giving the Jon Favreau-directed comic book adaptation basically 17 days alone in the marketplace. Wolverine doesn’t have that luxury with the aforementioned Star Trek, arriving next Thursday starting at 7pm.

Additionally, Iron Man was jet-powered by spectacular reviews (93% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes)
and excellent word-of-mouth. It’ll be more of a mixed bag for X-Men Origins: Wolverine, standing at 41% Fresh on RT as of Wednesday night. The multiplier for Iron Man was 3.22 (the number by which you multiply the opening weekend figure by to arrive at the ultimate domestic gross). Wolverine is more likely to finish with a multiplier of 1.8-1.9. If the picture hits my opening weekend number, that multiplier will put the final US total at something in the $165M-$175M range.

In addition to my final weekend prediction, I also believe that Wolverine may scratch and claw its way to one of the top five or six opening days ever for a comic book movie. That could make it the 2nd-biggest opening day ever for a film from the X-Men franchise, trailing only the first day for X-Men 3.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENING DAYS FOR COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS
1. The Dark Knight – $67.1M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $59.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand – $45.1M
4. Spider-Man 2 – $40.4M
5. Spider-Man – $39.4M
6. Iron Man – $35.2M
7. X-2: X-Men United – $31.25M
8. Watchmen – $24.5M
9. Hulk – $24.2M
10. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer – $22M

There is always room for an inspired piece of counter-programming, and Warner Bros is apparently executing just that. The Matthew McConaughey-Jennifer Garner-Michael Douglas rom-com Ghosts of Girlfriends Past could reach a very solid $18M by appealing to Females 25 Plus.

The only other wide release is Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Atttractions), a sci-fi 3-D release unluckily sandwiched between Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) and Pixar’s Up (Disney) on the 3-D release schedule. Despite essentially decent early reviews (70% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), Terra will not be putting up much of a Battle. The 3-D screen count will be low, and there has been no real marketing money spent on getting this one launched. I’m predicting about $3.4M, which might be enough to “sneak it” into the top twelve for the frame.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF MAY 1-3
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $92M
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $18M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $10.2M
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $6.5M
5. Earth (Disney) – $5.6M
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.5M
7. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5M
8. State of Play (Universal) – $4.3M
9. Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $3.9M
10. Fighting (Rogue) – $3.8M
11. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $3.5M
12. NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate) – $3.4M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Beyonce does battle with the sexy Ali Larter (HEROES) in OBSESSED

OPENINGS FOR BEYONCE MOVIES
1. Austin Powers: Goldmember – $70.3M opening
2. Obsessed – $27.5M opening (projected)
3. Pink Panther (2006) – $20.2M opening
4. Dreamgirls – $14.1M wide break (after a platform start)
5. The Fighting Temptations – $11.7M opening
6. Cadillac Records – $3.4M opening

Now a million-selling solo artist with ubiquitous hits like Irreplaceable and Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It), she is beginning to cash in at the box office. She parlayed supporting roles in Mike Myers Austin Powers: Goldmember and Steve Martin’s Pink Panther into the showy Deena Jones role in the film adaptation of Dreamgirls, which topped $100M domestic (although the most of the awards hardware was ultimately taken home by Jennifer Hudson, winning Best Supporting Actress at both the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards). Beyonce received generally good notices for her turn as Etta James in Cadillac Records in December, although the movie was a box office dud with just $8.2M domestic. Now she has managed a surprise hit on her own with Obsessed.

By all accounts the movie is not very good. Sony didn’t screen it for critics, and the early reviews trickling in decidedly negative (25% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). Perhaps the excellent Pete Hammond from Hollywood.com sums it up best saying, “It’s strictly a generic thriller, perhaps the 105th blatant rip-off of Fatal Attraction, but not without its own guilty pleasures.” My hunch is that there is some trashy fun here with a “girl-on-girl smackdown” (Geoff Berkshire’s words from his review on Metromix.com), and the other girl is the stunning Ali Larter from NBC’s Heroes. Still when all is said and done, Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine (Fox) and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) starring Matthew McConaughey, both due next Friday, are certain to make Obsessed a one-week wonder, and it may get a speeding ticket on its way to home video.

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE kicks off the summer next Friday

Even if Beyonce’s “movie legs” aren’t as long as her real (and shapely) legs, Obsessed has set a new opening record for the last weekend of April, traditionally a studio dumping ground for schlock and tough-to-sell movies.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS ON LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL
1. Obsessed (2009) – $27.5M (projected)
2. Mean Girls (2004) – $24.4M
3. Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Universe (2005) – $21.1M
4. Baby Mama (2008) – $17.4M
5. RV (2006) – $16.4M
6. Identity (2003) – $16.2M
7. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay (2008) – $14.9M
8. XXX: State of the Union (2005) – $12.7M
9. Driven (2001) – $12.1M
10. United 93 (2006) – $11.5M

Former A&F model Channing Tatum is flexing his box office muscle this weekend in FIGHTING

Aside from the monstrous upside surprise for Obsessed, the strong performance of Fighting (Rogue) ranks as the biggest box office upset of the weekend. This Channing Tatum vehicle from his A Guide To Recognizing Your Saints director Dito Montiel didn’t seem to have much traction in pre-release audience tracking, but the PG-13 street fighting yarn has actually delivered the second-best Friday gross with about $4.46M. It will be pretty front-loaded, but should still reach a better-than-expected $12M by Monday, enough for second-place.

Zac Efron is proving to be a little less durable among the teen and pre-teen set than I would have thought. 17 Again (Warner Bros), also starring Matthew Perry and Mrs. Judd Apatow (Leslie Mann) has delivered a second Friday in the $3.85M range. The weekend could hit $10.83M or so, second for the 3-day, for a new 10-day cume of $39.13M, but that represents a deeper-than-expected 54% drop.

Next comes the long-delayed Robert Downey Jr./Jamie Foxx project The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount). Originally slated for December with hopes of a Best Actor nomination for Downey, Jr., the Joe Wright-directed tearjerker was first moved to March before settling into this unfriendly last weekend of April slot. Reviews are respectable (61% Fresh on RT) and Downey, Jr. and Foxx both have real drawing power. At just over 2,000 playdates, the movie has managed a tuneful $3.43M (#4 for the day) to start the frame, and opening weekend could reach $10.29M, good for fourth place. The 25 Plus appeal, especially with women, gives this one a chance to do respectable business over the next couple of weekends as counter-programming to the first few summer blockbusters.

A Great White Shark lunging out of the ocean to snatch a seal in Disney's EARTH

Rounding out the top five, and a bit of a disappointment, is Earth (Disney). The studio’s calculated use of Earth Day to release its Cliffs Notes version of the BBC miniseries Planet Earth has, however, paid some dividends. The 11-hour miniseries has been boiled down to the cutest and scariest animals along with the most fascinating images and picturesque landscapes in a tight 90-minute package, and the re-purposed result generated just over $4M for Wednesday’s Earth Day celebration, adding another $1.6M or so on Thursday. Now the nature doc, which is running at 83% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, has slumped to an estimated $2.9M in Friday sales. It will play big with family audiences on Saturday and Sunday (the kids will be unable to resist baby polar bears sliding down a snowy arctic slope), but I am penciling in Earth for a 3-day of only $10M. That still gives it the biggest 3-day opening ever for a nature doc, although this is also the widest opening ever for a movie of this type.

ALL-TIME TOP 3-DAY OPENINGS FOR NATURE DOCS
- total domestic cumes included -
1. Earth – $9.39M (projected)
2. March of the Penguins – $7.1M opening – $77.4M cume
3. Two Brothers – $6.1M opening – $19.1M cume
4. Winged Migration – $470,000 biggest weekend – $10.7M cume
5. Arctic Tale -  $207,000 opening – $830,000 cume

2004’s Two Brothers, a story of tiger cubs from director Jean-Jacques Annaud, was a wide release like Earth, but the other 3 films listed above were platformed. Disney’s abridged version of Planet Earth has no chance of reaching the staggering success of 2005’s March of the Penguins, but Earth could get to the $30M range even with summer’s biggest guns blazing starting next Friday.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $11M, $4,375 PTA, $11M cume
2. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $4.46M, $1,932 PTA, $4.46M cume
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $3.85M, $1,183 PTA, $32.15M cume
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.2M, $1,581 PTA, $3.2M cume
5. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $2.9M, $1,608 PTA, $8.54M cume
6. State of Play (Universal) – $2.08M, $741 PTA, $20.31M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.05M, $579 PTA, $168.34M cume
8. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $1.93M, $541 PTA, $141.09M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $1.77M, $548 PTA, $60.98M cume
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $850,000, $382 PTA, $9.96M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $27.5M, $10,939 PTA, $27.5M cume
2. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $12M, $5,197 PTA, $12M cume
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $10.83M, $3,327 PTA, $39.13M
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $10.29M, $5,084 PTA, $10.29M cume
5. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $10M, $5,543 PTA, $15.64M cume
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.5M, $2,531 PTA, $174.79M cume
7. State of Play (Universal) – $7.1M, $2,529 PTA, $25.33M cume
8. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $6.65M, $2,058 PTA, $65.86M cume
9. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $5.79M, $1,625 PTA, $144.95M cume
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $2.8M, $1,259 PTA, $11.91M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

The 4 new wide releases and 1 major specialty release set to debut this weekend will face an onslaught of mega-hits over the next month. How can Obsessed (Sony), Earth (Disney), The Soloist, (Dreamworks/Paramount), Fighting (Rogue) and The Informers (Senator) possibly find an audience with X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) arriving next weekend followed by, in successive weeks, Star Trek (Paramount), Angels & Demons (Sony), the combo of Night at the Museum 2 (Fox) and Terminator: Salvation (Fox) and Disney/Pixar’s Up?

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE starring Hugh Jackman will be unleashed next weekend

End of April starters have tended to be genre pics like 2003’s Identity and The Invisible (2007), mid-budget messes that have fallen short of expectations like the ridiculous Next (2007) starring Nicolas Cage and XXX: State of the Union in ’05, and tough-to-sell pictures like the excellent United 93 (2006) from director Paul Greengrass and the good-hearted 2006 movie Akeelah & the Bee. Tina Fey is the unofficial queen of the last weekend of April, writing and starring in Mean Girls and mugging her way through Baby Mama with Amy Poehler last year.

30 ROCK's Tina Fey has starred in 2 of the 3 biggest last weekend of April openers ever

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS ON LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL
1. Mean Girls (2004) – $24.4M
2. Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Universe (2005) – $21.1M
3. Baby Mama (2008) – $17.4M
4. RV (2006) – $16.4M
5. Identity (2003) – $16.2M
6. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay (2008) – $14.9M
7. XXX: State of the Union (2005) – $12.7M
8. Driven (2001) – $12.1M
9. United 93 (2006) – $11.5M
10. Stick It (2006) – $10.8M

The likely weekend winner will be either Obsessed or Disney’s nature doc Earth, which opened Wednesday to about $4M, but I am giving the nod to recording superstar Beyonce despite the fact that Sony has kept its exploitative-looking thriller completely under wraps. Under its Screen Gems banner, Sony knows how to squeeze one good weekend out of movie like this regardless of how bad it is. Last year, Screen Gems scored excellent 3-day starts for sub-par movies like Prom Night ($20.8M), First Sunday ($17.7M), Lakeview Terrace ($15M), Quarantine ($14.2M) and Untraceable ($11.3M). Industry tracking suggests that Beyonce could drive the certain-to-be-forgettable Obsessed to a decent $15M opening weekend, and it will likely play very well at inner city theatre properties.

That would push Earth to #2 for the frame. The Earth Day opening was successful, and critics love the film (83% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). Family audiences love cute baby animals so Disney has excerpted the amazing BBC miniseries Planet Earth to fashion their own March of the Penguins-style narrative nature doc. It’s hard to imagine anything cuter than baby polar bears sliding down a snow bank, and it’s hard to come up with anything scarier than a Great White Shark lunging out of the water after its prey. I have seen the full length miniseries, but not Disney’s movie. Still it’s hard to imagine this not being unbelievably compelling stuff, even in its 90 minute theatrical version (although I still recommend tracking down the full BBC series instead). I am forecasting a possible $13.2M for 3-days, which would mean a 5-day start of just over $19M.

Last weekend’s champ, 17 Again (Warner Bros) starring ‘tween heartthrob Zac Efron, should hold up fairly well. The word-of-mouth is very positive, and that could mean a drop of only 46% or so to about $12.7M and a new cume of just over $40M by Monday.

Oscar nominee Robert Downey, Jr. (TROPIC THUNDER) and Academy Award winner Jamie Foxx (RAY) star in THE SOLOIST

The Joe Wright-directed The Soloist has been juggled around the release schedule with abandon, but it has been very well marketed with a heavy TV campaign, especially during shows geared for the 25+ crowd. The reviews are a mixed bag (54% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but there will be some business in this title. Some of my sources are saying $12M-$14M, but I am calling for a possible $11.6M.

The well-reviewed Russell Crowe journalism thriller State of Play (Universal) will almost certainly hang onto a spot in the top 5. The dip will be gentle (maybe 35%-40%), and this very good adult film could generate another $9M in ticket sales.

FINAL PREDICTION FOR APRIL 24-26
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $15M
2. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $13.2M
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $12.7M
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $11.6M
5. State of Play (Universal) – $9M
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $7.9M
7. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $7.4M
8. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $7M
9. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $5.8M
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $2.8M
11. Knowing (Summit) – $2M
12. NEW – The Informers (Senator) – $1.7M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

With most of Hollywood (including myself) expecting an opening in the mid-$20M’s for Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney), Miley has surprised “grown-ups” with her box office clout once again. The picture opened with a heavily front-loaded $17.39M on Good Friday then dropped 40% on Saturday to an estimated $10.34M, and it will reach an estimated $34M by the end of Easter weekend, making it the all-time #2 opening for the bunny holiday weekend. My Friday night early 3-day projection was for $33.6M, but then I raised my number to $39M on Saturday. As it turns out, I should have stuck with my first pass. These young skewing movies are tricky to project, and the Easter Weekend, where Saturday traditionally drops from Friday, makes it even more complicated.

Likely still the all-time Easter Weekend opening champ

ALL-TIME TOP 5 EASTER WEEKEND OPENINGS
1. Scary Movie 4 - $40.2M
2. Hannah Montana The Movie – $34M (projected)
3. Panic Room – $30M
4. The Matrix – $27.7M
5. Guess Who – $20.7M

That is also stronger than Miley Cyrus’ 3-D concert movie last year. 2008’s Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour, which was promoted as a one-week-only motion picture event and benefited from a 3-D upcharge, delivered a stunning $31.1M last February. This 16-year-old has outdone herself.

For the business overall, it appears to be a spectacular frame as Hannah and some strong holdovers will likely have scored the biggest Easter Weekend in modern box office history, surpassing 2002’s holiday 3-day. In fact, this 3-day could beat the previous record by as much as 16%.

Kristin Stewart & Jody Foster were #1 in PANIC ROOM leading Hollywood's previous best Easter Weekend

ALL-TIME BIGGEST GROSSING EASTER WEEKENDS
- totals are for the top 10 films for the holiday 3-day -
1. 4/10/09 – $126.4M [#1 - Hannah Montana The Movie - $34M] (projected)
2. 3/29/02 – $108.8M [#1 – Panic Room - $30M]
3. 4/14/06 – $107.08M [#1 – Scary Movie 4 - $40.2M]
4. 4/06/07 – $104.5M [#1 - Blades of Glory - $22.5M]
5. 3/21/08 – $94.65M [#1 - Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears A Who! - $24.6M]
6. 4/07/04 – $87.9M [#1 – Passion of the Christ - $15.2M]
7. 3/25/05 – $86.8M [#1 – Guess Who - $20.6M]
8. 4/18/03 – $83.8M [#1 – Anger Management - $25M]
9. 4/02/99 – $72.7M [#1 – The Matrix - $27.8M]
10. 4/21/00 – $70.3M [#1 – U-571 - $19.5M]

Hollywood wouldn’t be making history were it not for the continued high octane ticket sales of Fast & Furious (Universal). The fourth in the F&F franchise is down about 59% from its rubber-burning $71M opening, but it will still likely manage a an estimated $28.78M, more than enough for second-place. The Diesel-Walker-Brewster-Rodriguez “speed machine” will have about $118M in the bank on Monday, putting it miles ahead of the other movies in the franchise.

The secret to getting the F&F franchise back on track? - Just add Diesel

10-DAY GROSSES FOR FAST & FURIOUS FRANCHISE
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $118M opening (projected)
2. 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003) – $83.6M opening
3. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $77.9M opening
4. The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift (2006) – $43.2M opening

Monsters Vs. Aliens from Dreamworks Animation continues to perform in monstrous proportions. The cutting edge 3-D spectacle added another $9.07M on its third Friday (no school for lots of kids), and it has reached $22.6M thanks to big family matinees on Saturday and Sunday. MVA is the fifth-best performer for Dreamworks Animation after 17 days, trailing only the Shrek franchise and Kung Fu Panda.

TOP 10 GROSSES FOR DREAMWORKS ANIMATION AFTER 17 DAYS
1. Shrek 2 – $287M
2. Shrek the Third – $255.9M
3. Shrek – $148.3M
4. Kung Fu Panda – $155.8M
5. Monsters vs. Aliens – $141M (projected)
6. Madagascar 2 – $137.1M
7. Madagascar – $128.4M
8. Shark Tale – $118.7M
9. Over the Hedge – $112.3M
10. Bee Movie – $93.6M

But Monsters Vs. Aliens looks even better when compared to other animated films released during non-peak times. Jeffrey Katzenberg’s latest is almost keeping pace with Fox’s Ice Age: The Meltdown.

TOP GROSSES FOR NON-SUMMMER, NON-HOLIDAY ANIMATED MOVIES AFTER 17 DAYS
- excludes movies released May-August and November-December –
1. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $147.2M
2. Monsters vs. Aliens – $141M (projected)
3. Shark Tale – $118.7M
4. Dr. Suess’ Horton Hears A Who! - $177.5M
5. Ice Age – $116.8M

Seth Rogen apparently has less MALL COP appeal than Paul Blart

Not all good news for the studios. Observe & Report, the new Seth Rogen, R-rated comedy from Warner Bros, got off to a sluggish start with about $4.76M and dipped below $4M on Saturday. Reviews are very good, and this one could benefit from positive word-of-mouth over the long haul, but the Warner Bros estimate is for just $11.1M or so for the weekend.

Meanwhile, Fox’s Dragonball: Evolution is a bomb with estimated sales of just $2M on opening day and a $4.65M 3-day start (8th place). Summit’s strong-holding Knowing rounds out the top five with a possible $6.67M for a new cume of almost $68M.

FRIDAY STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $17.39M, $5,577 PTA, $17.39M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $10.6M, $3,053PTA, $99.85M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $9.07M, $2,193 PTA, $127.46M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $4.76M, $1,746 PTA, $4.76M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) – $2.4M, $821 PTA, $63.73M cume
6. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $2.35, $864 PTA, $42.93M cume
7. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.3M, $870 PTA, $54.88M cume
8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $2M, $917 PTA, $2M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $1.25M, $666 PTA, $9.26M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $1M, $509 PTA, $34.85M cume

3-DAY STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $34M, $10,904 PTA, $34M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $28.78M, $8,290 PTA, $118M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $22.61M, $5,468 PTA, $141M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $11.14M, $4,085 PTA, $11.14M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) – $6.67M, $2,280 PTA, $68M cume
6. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $6.41M, $2,426 PTA, $59M cume
7. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $5.71M, $2,098 PTA, $46.29M cume
8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $4.65M, $2,132 PTA, $4.65M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $3.43M, $1,830 PTA, $11.45M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $2.99M, $1,525 PTA, $36.84M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.