Tonight’s Tony Award Predictions

Join Gary Graham, Tim Slagle, Moxie X. Cathedra, Stage Right and many more as Big Hollywood live-blogs the West Coast feed of the Tony Awards.

Tonight, 8:00 PM Pacific Time, Telecast on CBS.

It’s often said during Oscar season that there are two sets of predictions:  Who WILL win, and who SHOULD win.  It’s the same with Broadway’s Tony Awards but I often like to add a third prediction:  What would be the best for business.  Believe it or not, often times the Tony Awards seem to take into account the shows that “need” the award for marketing purposes.  Even though one show stands out and seems to be the obvious choice to win the top prize, a surprise occurs and a David beats a Goliath thus ensuring a longer run for David.  I will list a few examples for Best Musical travesties from the past that many might quarrel with in terms of the validity of the show that won, but the commercial outcome of the shows involved can’t be argued.  You have a right to your own opinion, but not to your own facts.

1991: “Miss Saigon” has a multi-million-dollar advance, leads nominations with 11, wins Best Actor and Best Actress.  Best Musical that year?  “The Will Rogers Follies.”  Without the award, “Will Rogers” would have not made it another six months. After winning the prize, it ran for two more years, had a successful tour and might still be running in Branson, MO.  “Saigon” ran for a decade. (more…)