I wish.  But then, I’m a trial lawyer and I could use a new house.

Sadly, the real world is much more esoteric than the portrait Hollywood paints, and the real threat is not quite so picturesque.  Instead of corporate death squads composed of hardboiled mercenaries with high tech assault rifles, the real killers are boring jihadi doofuses with dusty AKs, booby-trapped Fiats and the occasional boxcutter.   

Let’s stop and check the numbers.  Real terrorists, counting the victims of 9/11 and American losses in Iraq and Afghanistan: Over 7900 murdered. Victims of corporate murder: Zero. Nada. Zip. I would add in the number of Iraqis and Afghanis murdered by these folks, except that toll is beyond counting.  And to many liberals, their lives don’t seem to count anyway.

Oh, wait, this is where some feverish troll jumps on his iMac and starts spouting off about Karen Silkwood. Silkwood was a union organizer at a plutonium reprocessing plant who crashed and died one night in 1974.  You probably remember the shower scene in the film of the same name where the evil corporate minions not-so-gently decontaminate a shrieking Meryl Streep.   It’s an article of faith among the paranoid left that the evil company ran her car off the road.  You know it has to be true because in the movie before the crash, a pair of headlights looms ominously behind Streep as she drives to a meeting with a reporter.

Heck, I’m convinced.  Those headlights did look really ominous.  

And it’s a pretty plausible scenario too.  The smart move for any multi-billion dollar company facing an expose is to murder the reporters’ source.  No way that could possibly wrong.  It’s much more plausible – and exciting – than her falling asleep and driving into a ditch because of the double dose of Quaalude in her bloodstream like the police concluded.

At least “24″ has an excuse – after seven seasons, it’s pretty much run out of villains, and it certainly has had no problem in the past pointing out that jihadis, you know, really do want to kill Americans.  But others do not have that excuse. 

The homicidal business man is their default villain.  It’s become something more than even a cliché – it’s an assumption.   A businessman appears on screen and you can just assume he’s going to try to off the hero.  That the concept of corporate assassins is objectively ridiculous is not an obstacle.  Remember, these people also think the key to improving health care is to let the same kind of geniuses behind the Department of Motor Vehicles control it. 

Liberal Hollywood loves corporate villains because to face up to the real threat is just too great a challenge to their world view.  Business people?  Bad.  Third world guys who hate America?  “Well, let’s just forget about them and make the villain a drug company that just happens to employ an elite team of contract killers.  Now, where’s my swine flu vaccine?”

Gimme a break.  Even if our bankers, financiers and industrialists wanted to pull off one of these intricate conspiracies, does it really seem like they could?  Look at the news.  Big business can’t even do what it’s supposed to do anymore, much less mastermind fiendish schemes.  Could the brain trust at Wachovia whack an opponent?  They can’t even keep their doors open.  Countrywide would bring the same precise attention to detail to its wet work as it did to its underwriting – and miss the target every time.  GM and Chrysler’s hitmen would organize.  The next thing we would hear is that International Brotherhood of Termination Workers Local 187 is on strike for a cushy jobs bank to retrain snipers with trigger finger repetitive stress injuries to reclassify as car bombers.  And card check would just make it worse.

That assumes that hitmen could keep their jobs at all in this economy.  Murder is not a profit center and corporations are cutting back.  Look for hordes of unemployed button men downtown holding signs saying “Will kill for food” standing next to laid-off New York Times writers promising “Will shill shamelessly for $.”

Where would the companies find these killers anyway – on Craigslist, between the ads for $5 used sofas and creepy adult encounters?  Hollywood always makes these thugs ex-military, which makes sense since the government tells us that veterans are violent extremists.  Still, I must have missed the corporate recruiter’s booth at the veterans job fair promising prospects the chance to “Come grow with us as you kill with us.”   

The fact is that today’s corporate environment is no place for self-respecting hitmen – excuse me, hitpeople.  The Director of Diversity would constantly be hounding them with PowerPoint presentations about their failure to meet her goal of increasing the number of differently-abled lesbian Hindu assassins by 43.2%.  And don’t get her started on how pistol silencers “send a message of non-inclusiveness through their phallocentric appearance.”

With most of Hollywood (including myself) expecting an opening in the mid-$20M’s for Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney), Miley has surprised “grown-ups” with her box office clout once again. The picture opened with a heavily front-loaded $17.39M on Good Friday then dropped 40% on Saturday to an estimated $10.34M, and it will reach an estimated $34M by the end of Easter weekend, making it the all-time #2 opening for the bunny holiday weekend. My Friday night early 3-day projection was for $33.6M, but then I raised my number to $39M on Saturday. As it turns out, I should have stuck with my first pass. These young skewing movies are tricky to project, and the Easter Weekend, where Saturday traditionally drops from Friday, makes it even more complicated.

Likely still the all-time Easter Weekend opening champ

ALL-TIME TOP 5 EASTER WEEKEND OPENINGS
1. Scary Movie 4 - $40.2M
2. Hannah Montana The Movie – $34M (projected)
3. Panic Room – $30M
4. The Matrix – $27.7M
5. Guess Who – $20.7M

That is also stronger than Miley Cyrus’ 3-D concert movie last year. 2008’s Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour, which was promoted as a one-week-only motion picture event and benefited from a 3-D upcharge, delivered a stunning $31.1M last February. This 16-year-old has outdone herself.

For the business overall, it appears to be a spectacular frame as Hannah and some strong holdovers will likely have scored the biggest Easter Weekend in modern box office history, surpassing 2002’s holiday 3-day. In fact, this 3-day could beat the previous record by as much as 16%.

Kristin Stewart & Jody Foster were #1 in PANIC ROOM leading Hollywood's previous best Easter Weekend

ALL-TIME BIGGEST GROSSING EASTER WEEKENDS
- totals are for the top 10 films for the holiday 3-day -
1. 4/10/09 – $126.4M [#1 - Hannah Montana The Movie - $34M] (projected)
2. 3/29/02 – $108.8M [#1 – Panic Room - $30M]
3. 4/14/06 – $107.08M [#1 – Scary Movie 4 - $40.2M]
4. 4/06/07 – $104.5M [#1 - Blades of Glory - $22.5M]
5. 3/21/08 – $94.65M [#1 - Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears A Who! - $24.6M]
6. 4/07/04 – $87.9M [#1 – Passion of the Christ - $15.2M]
7. 3/25/05 – $86.8M [#1 – Guess Who - $20.6M]
8. 4/18/03 – $83.8M [#1 – Anger Management - $25M]
9. 4/02/99 – $72.7M [#1 – The Matrix - $27.8M]
10. 4/21/00 – $70.3M [#1 – U-571 - $19.5M]

Hollywood wouldn’t be making history were it not for the continued high octane ticket sales of Fast & Furious (Universal). The fourth in the F&F franchise is down about 59% from its rubber-burning $71M opening, but it will still likely manage a an estimated $28.78M, more than enough for second-place. The Diesel-Walker-Brewster-Rodriguez “speed machine” will have about $118M in the bank on Monday, putting it miles ahead of the other movies in the franchise.

The secret to getting the F&F franchise back on track? - Just add Diesel

10-DAY GROSSES FOR FAST & FURIOUS FRANCHISE
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $118M opening (projected)
2. 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003) – $83.6M opening
3. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $77.9M opening
4. The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift (2006) – $43.2M opening

Monsters Vs. Aliens from Dreamworks Animation continues to perform in monstrous proportions. The cutting edge 3-D spectacle added another $9.07M on its third Friday (no school for lots of kids), and it has reached $22.6M thanks to big family matinees on Saturday and Sunday. MVA is the fifth-best performer for Dreamworks Animation after 17 days, trailing only the Shrek franchise and Kung Fu Panda.

TOP 10 GROSSES FOR DREAMWORKS ANIMATION AFTER 17 DAYS
1. Shrek 2 – $287M
2. Shrek the Third – $255.9M
3. Shrek – $148.3M
4. Kung Fu Panda – $155.8M
5. Monsters vs. Aliens – $141M (projected)
6. Madagascar 2 – $137.1M
7. Madagascar – $128.4M
8. Shark Tale – $118.7M
9. Over the Hedge – $112.3M
10. Bee Movie – $93.6M

But Monsters Vs. Aliens looks even better when compared to other animated films released during non-peak times. Jeffrey Katzenberg’s latest is almost keeping pace with Fox’s Ice Age: The Meltdown.

TOP GROSSES FOR NON-SUMMMER, NON-HOLIDAY ANIMATED MOVIES AFTER 17 DAYS
- excludes movies released May-August and November-December –
1. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $147.2M
2. Monsters vs. Aliens – $141M (projected)
3. Shark Tale – $118.7M
4. Dr. Suess’ Horton Hears A Who! - $177.5M
5. Ice Age – $116.8M

Seth Rogen apparently has less MALL COP appeal than Paul Blart

Not all good news for the studios. Observe & Report, the new Seth Rogen, R-rated comedy from Warner Bros, got off to a sluggish start with about $4.76M and dipped below $4M on Saturday. Reviews are very good, and this one could benefit from positive word-of-mouth over the long haul, but the Warner Bros estimate is for just $11.1M or so for the weekend.

Meanwhile, Fox’s Dragonball: Evolution is a bomb with estimated sales of just $2M on opening day and a $4.65M 3-day start (8th place). Summit’s strong-holding Knowing rounds out the top five with a possible $6.67M for a new cume of almost $68M.

FRIDAY STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $17.39M, $5,577 PTA, $17.39M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $10.6M, $3,053PTA, $99.85M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $9.07M, $2,193 PTA, $127.46M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $4.76M, $1,746 PTA, $4.76M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) – $2.4M, $821 PTA, $63.73M cume
6. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $2.35, $864 PTA, $42.93M cume
7. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.3M, $870 PTA, $54.88M cume
8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $2M, $917 PTA, $2M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $1.25M, $666 PTA, $9.26M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $1M, $509 PTA, $34.85M cume

3-DAY STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $34M, $10,904 PTA, $34M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $28.78M, $8,290 PTA, $118M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $22.61M, $5,468 PTA, $141M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $11.14M, $4,085 PTA, $11.14M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) – $6.67M, $2,280 PTA, $68M cume
6. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $6.41M, $2,426 PTA, $59M cume
7. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $5.71M, $2,098 PTA, $46.29M cume
8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $4.65M, $2,132 PTA, $4.65M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $3.43M, $1,830 PTA, $11.45M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $2.99M, $1,525 PTA, $36.84M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Universal’s Fast & Furious is likely to cross the finish line first for a second consecutive weekend, following up last weekend’s almost $71M with about $30M, which would mark a 58% drop. Still, it must be considered a triumph that the re-teaming of Vin Diesel, Paul Walker, Jordana Brewster and Michelle Rodriguez may have $120M in US sales after just 10 days. That will mean that Fast & Furious will have almost doubled the domestic gross of The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift (the last film in the franchise), and this souped-up thrill ride could be headed for $160M US.

The likely second-place finisher this weekend will be Hannah Montana The Movie, which has far less sizzle than Miley Cyrus’ 3-D concert movie last year. 2008’s Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour was promoted as a one-week-only motion picture event and benefited from a 3-D upcharge, delivering a stunning $31.1M last February 1-3. This Miley movie will perform well, but it doesn’t appear to be a sensation-in-the-making.

Make no mistake. Miley Cyrus is an industry, and business is booming. Only four years ago, she was known merely as the 12-year-old daughter of the guy who sang Achy Breaky Heart. She auditioned for the role of “the best friend” in a new series being developed by The Disney Channel about an ordinary teenager who is secretly a pop star. Instead, she won the lead. Within a year of the debut of Hannah Montana, she had two albums that debuted at #1 on Billboard’s album charts. Then came the Best of Both World’s Concert Tour and 69 sold-out arena dates across North America.

Her new movie directed by Peter Chelsom, who has directed actresses like Diane Keaton in Town and Country ($6.7M cume) and Jennifer Lopez in Shall We Dance? ($57.9M cume), seems headed to an Easter weekend opening in the mid-$20M’s. I’m calling for $24.6M and a second-place finish.

Monsters Vs. Aliens 3-D should continue to play strongly with family audiences, possibly dipping by as little as 36% to a possible $21M and a #3 finish. MVA will likely be just shy of $140M in the US by Monday.

Seth Rogen's "mall cop" in OBSERVE & REPORT is far less mass appeal than PAUL BLART

The new Seth Rogen comedy and and the second “mall cop” movie of 2009 – could finish fourth. Observe and Report is written and directed by Eastbound & Down writer/creator Jody Hill (who appeared as an actor in Superbad). This movie is apparently just as edgy as Hill’s over-the-top raunchy series, but it has a 61% Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes.

Still, it sounds like it’s not for everybody, based on this review from Rick Mele from AskMen.com. “Unlikable characters, gratuitous male nudity, a dry and sometimes nihilistic sense of humor — there are moments when you can’t believe they got away with this, at a major studio no less.” I’ve learned not to underestimate these male-skewing, Apatow-style comedies, and this one seems to have a $20M target or maybe just shy of that mark ($19.5M).

A third new release Dragonball: Evolution (Fox), based on Akira Toriyama’s wildly popular manga, could reach the low teens, skewing to Males Under 25, particularly tween boys. Several animated versions of the show have appeared on The Cartoon Network, so there is an audience, although the new live action film’s 23% Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes would seem to limit the upside to a possible $10.7M by Monday.

My predicted numbers for the weekend top ten are for $126.4M. If Hollywood hits that number, it will be the biggest-grossing top ten Easter movies ever (by a lot), surpassing the 2002 Easter weekend, which was led by David Fincher’s Panic Room starring Jodie Foster.

ALL-TIME BIGGEST GROSSING EASTER WEEKENDS
- totals are for the top 10 films for the holiday 3-day -
1. 3/29/02 – $108.8M [#1 – Panic Room - $30M]
2. 4/14/06 – $107.08M [#1 – Scary Movie 4 - $40.2M]
3. 4/06/07 – $104.5M [#1 - Blades of Glory - $22.5M]
4. 3/21/08 – $94.65M [#1 - Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears A Who! - $24.6M]
5. 4/07/04 – $87.9M [#1 – Passion of the Christ - $15.2M]
6. 3/25/05 – $86.8M [#1 – Guess Who - $20.6M]
7. 4/18/03 – $83.8M [#1 – Anger Management - $25M]
8. 4/02/99 – $72.7M [#1 – The Matrix - $27.8M]
9. 4/21/00 – $70.3M [#1 – U-571 - $19.5M]
10. 3/28/97 – $69.9M [#1 – Liar, Liar - $25.4M]

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR APRIL 10-12
1. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $30M
2. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $24.6M
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $21M
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $19.5M
5. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $10.7M
6. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $5.1M
7. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $4.9M
8. Knowing (Summit) – $4.8M
9. Adventureland (Miramax) -$3.4M
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $2.4M

Julia Roberts and Clive Owen star in the fun, smart DUPLICITY, from writer/director Tony Gilroy

Roberts’ last starring role was in 2003’s Mona Lisa Smile ($63.8M domestic), and since then she has become a full-time Mom. Overall, she has 8 movies on her resume that have reached $100M in the US with her as a lead (I’m not including the Ocean’s Eleven franchise). Her most successful string of movies started in 1997 with My Best Friend’s Wedding ($127.1M cume) and ended with her Oscar winning performance in Erin Brockovich ($125.6M cume). During that span, she starred in 6 movies, generating an average of $115M in domestic box office.

Katherine Heigl is one of the actresses getting all of Roberts' old ingenue roles

But, she has entered the “danger zone” for any actress. All the types of roles that Julia used to turn into $100M blockbusters are going to Katherine Heigl, Kate Hudson, Anne Hathaway, Reese Witherspoon and Elizabeth Banks. What’s a 40+ woman to do?

DUPLICITY writer/director Tony Gilroy

She should be looking for smartly-written, age appropriate movies with some pedigree (co-stars, director, etc.). That is exactly what Duplicity is. Writer/director Tony Gilroy wrote the Jason Bourne movies, and his last film, Michael Clayton, was nominated for 7 Academy Awards. The result is an excellent movie. Clever, smart and charming, and Julia Roberts isn’t trying to pass herself off as an ingénue. The movie was expected to open to about $15M, and that’s exactly what it did, and still, bloggers write things like Julia’s Comeback: Audiences Say Go Back and people question if she’s still a draw.

For comparison sake, here is, to the best of my knowledge, the all-time box office champs for movies starring 40+ actresses above the title.

Glenn Close as Alex Forrest in FATAL ATTRACTION grabbed over $156M

ALL-TIME TOP 15 GROSSING MOVIES WITH A 40+ FEMALE LEAD
1. Fatal Attraction – Glenn Close (40) – $156.6M cume
2. Sex & the City – Sarah Jessica Parker (43) – $152.6M cume
3. Mamma Mia! – Meryl Streep (59) – $144.1M cume
4. 101 Dalmations – Glenn Close (49) – $136.2M cume
5. The Devil Wears Prada – (57) – $124.7M cume
6. Something’s Gotta Give – Diane Keaton (57) – $124.7M cume
7. On Golden Pond – Katherine Hepburn (74) – $119.2M cume
8. Terms of Endearment – Shirley MacLaine (49) – $108.4M cume
9. First Wives Club – Diane Keaton (50), Goldie Hawn (41), Bette Midler (51) – $105.5M cume
10. The Client – Susan Sarandon (48) – $92.1M cume
11. Flightplan – Jody Foster (43) – $89.7M cume
12. Moonstruck – Cher (41) – $80.6M cume
13. The Bridges of Madison County – Meryl Streep (46) – $71.5M cume
14. Bird On Wire – Goldie Hawn (45) – $70.9M cume
15. 102 Dalmations – Glenn Close (53) – $66.9M cume

In other words, it is a longshot for a mature woman to open a film in a big way. Last year, Hollywood gave us Mamma Mia! and Sex & The City, but they were both based on popular source material. The only other movies that starred 40+ actress to generate significant receipts were Australia ($49.5M cume) starring Nicole Kidman (40), Nim’s Island ($48M cume) featuring Jody Foster (46) and Nights in Rodanthe ($41.8M) with a 43-year-old Diane Lane.

Meryl Streep had Universal Studios execs jumping for joy with MAMMA MIA!

Given the nature of the business, is it really fair to say, “Julia Roberts can’t open a movie anymore?” The reality is that it is very rare that any woman north of 40 “opens” a movie, and let’s face it, ABBA opened Mamma Mia! and HBO created the success of Sex & The City.

In fact, I would argue that Duplicity is an excellent choice for the former $20M-per-movie star. You could argue that it is quite similar to Adam’s Rib, the movie that Katherine Hepburn starred in at the age of 41, a romantic comedy featuring she and Spencer Tracy as husband and wife operating, as lawyers on opposite sides of a big case. Duplicity is a very good modern-day parallel, not a classic like Adam’s Rib, but very good.

Kyra Sedgwick has scored big with THE CLOSER on TNT

Increasingly, the best roles for women 40+ are on television. Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer), Glenn Close (Damages), Holly Hunter (Saving Grace), Edie Falco (The Sopranos), Vanessa Williams (Ugly Betty) and Sally Field (Brothers & Sisters) have all found meaningful work on the small screen, but with two young kids, the TV series grind isn’t likely in the cards right now for Roberts right now.

Based on the $14.5M weekend and the fact that Females 25 Plus don’t often rush out to see a movie on opening weekend, I think it’s reasonable to project a $40M-$45M domestic gross – maybe even $50M. Michael Clayton only reached $49M in the US, so is Julia’s drawing power that much inferior to George Clooney?

In my mind, Duplicity is a creative success and, although the jury is out on commercial viability, it is by no means a disaster. Good for Julia Roberts that she has devoted herself to full-time motherhood. I’m glad she chose a project with an IQ, and I hope she continues making smart career choices. Her success will be of service to other actresses in Hollywood – those who are 40+ now, or will be someday.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

I think the reason goes something like this: A comedy movie, at least of the Fired Up variety, is a series of jokes in the form of stories, one-liners, set pieces, sketches, situations, characters and reactions. If one doesn’t work for you, hang on, ‘cos there’ll be another coming right along, and you might like that one better.

A thriller like The International is an experience over the course of a couple hours, not a series of disconnected dramatic moments. It has to hold together. Even if the elements are stock, a skilled filmmaker can assemble them in such a way to sustain suspense, engage the audience with the characters, and trick (that is the right word here, “trick”–it’s a made-up story, after all) the audience into rooting for the hero and against the villain.

Fired Up was almost wholly implausible but since it was presented as farce, the unlikelihood’s didn’t bother me. The International is wrecked by its implausibilities (among other things) because it’s offered not as fantasy but as a ripped-from-the-headlines mystery about business and world affairs.

When James Bond strolls from the wreckage with a martini in one hand and the bad guy handcuffed to the other, we’re fine with it because 007 is a super-man. But in The International, when Clive Owen destroys the Guggenheim Museum in a machine gun fight, flees to Brooklyn through a swarm of police cruisers, and spouts more public inanities than Joe Biden on a Jack Daniels IV, the barriers to suspension of disbelief quickly become insurmountable.

Consider Michael Clayton, a great suspense thriller that, like The International, is also about business. Its similar implausibility, murder as corporate lever, works because the screenwriter and director made that implausibility seem possible. For instance, the murder plot is hatched by one or two cold executives, not a stereotypical cabal of Old White Men In Suits fresh from mustache-twirling lessons. The executives and the victim and everyone else react in realistic ways to realistic pressures. We see back stories that happen in real life (for instance, a lazy brother connected to a failed restaurant and the worry of crushing debt to pay for it all). Nearly every scene ends with some moment that will demand resolution later, so we stay interested. And, as screenwriter Blake Snyder observes, the filmmakers hold fast to the rule that audiences will allow a movie only “one piece of magic”—a single dispensation to violate natural law or common sense. Michael Clayton barely indulges the rule at all. So masterful is the portrayal of business as it is practiced that the dark heart at the center of the picture is made to fit right in.

The makers of The International really should watch Michael Clayton.

When comedies fail, it’s usually because of volume: It’s not that they lack any funny moments, it’s that they lack enough of them. You can pretty accurately predict the success of a comedy by counting the jokes per minute. It’s simple arithmetic: a middling comedy usually has only a middling number of jokes. (Quality and sophistication—a word I hate in this context—are another matter.) Suspense thrillers are not nearly so subject to empiricism. The International fails for lots more reasons than implausibility, but that’s where it all begins for me.

I tell my speech-writing students that if they take good care of the structure, style will usually take care of itself. A movie with strong structure, including realism, will accrue the same stylistic benefits. And we’d all probably enjoy such movies a whole lot more. Movies like The International.