But in the new movie “Couples Retreat,” which not only co-stars but is co-written by real-life best friends Vince Vaughn (“Wedding Crashers”) and Jon Favreau (a popular character actor who has also directed “Iron Man”), these average middle-class American problems are given hilarious voice through vivid performances and rapid-fire dialogue. Or, more accurately, the movie shines when it focuses on those aspects of life in the first half of the film, while disappointingly falling off a cliff for much of the unfocused second half. Yet, just like a real-life marriage that lasts, the ups outnumber the downs enough to make this a satisfying if not spectacular night at the movies. 

“Couples Retreat” kicks off with uptight couple Jason (Jason Bateman) and Cynthia (Kristin Bell of “Forgetting Sarah Marshall”) begging their other friends – workaholic Dave (Vaughn) and his neglected wife Ronnie (Malin Akerman of the underrated remake of “The Heartbreak Kid”), and high school sweethearts-turned-bored middle-agers Joey (Favreau) and Lucy (Kristin Davis of “Sex and the City”), and just-separated Shane (Faizon Love) and his ridiculously young new girlfriend Trudy (scene-stealing Kali Hawk) – to join them on a retreat to the Club Med-style resort of Eden. If they can get a group of four couples together, they can all go half-price – which sounds great to the three seemingly healthy couples, as long as they’re assured they won’t have to go through couples counseling. 

And so they arrive in what seems like paradise, and of course, everyone is subjected to counseling from the get-go. It turns out that Eden is no mere resort, but strictly follows a program by Marcel (Jean Reno) that forces couples to get deep with each other in addition to following regimented diet, sleep and yoga regimens. And this unexpected rigor sets the couples off, opening up about unresolved issues each never knew the other had. 

With the hilarious team of Vaughn and Favreau firing on all cylinders again after their cult-classic teamings in “Swingers” and “Made,” the early stretches at the resort are filled with hilariously sarcastic dialogue that takes well-placed swipes at the sappy, New Age-y relationship advice dispensed far too often in our culture. Seeing these guys fight for their right to be guys while their wives awaken to the fact they have their own reasons to complain rather than simply accept their husbands’ bad habits and passive neglect makes for a sharp take on modern relationships. 

There’s also a gloriously offensive sequence in which the resort’s yoga instructor (the brilliant Carlos Ponce) guides the couples – but especially the ladies – through a series of shockingly inappropriate positions and thrusts that offers some of the funniest film moments of the year. But when Trudy disappears from the married part of the resort, apparently relocating to the singles part of the island to get her freak on with her own age group, the couples all have to come together to sneak her back onto their part of the resort or face early expulsion. Here we’re promised a series of comical misadventures, but instead the film strangely pulls its punches and winds up devolving into a series of pat resolutions. 

Following his star turns in a pair of slipshod Christmas comedies (the bizarre “Fred Claus” and the cliched yet funny “Four Christmases”) it’s clear that Vaughn’s trying to steer himself back on course with “Retreat.” Not only did he co-write it with Favreau, but as producer he’s sprinkled the film with his patented fast patter and hired another lifelong friend, former child actor Peter Billingsley (the immortal Ralphie from “A Christmas Story”) as director. Vaughn also has the class to depict his middle-class, middle-aged Middle Americans with respect. 

In other words, the success or failure of “Couples Retreat” rests squarely on Vaughn’s shoulders. He’s a steady and reliable purveyor of comedy, but rarely makes a stretch in his acting persona. How much you like the film will largely depend on how much you like your comedy served up: if you like familiar comfort food, you’ll be just fine. But if you want something with a truly fresh flavor, you might be disappointed.

Jordana Brewster is reunited with Vin, Paul and Michelle in FAST & FURIOUS

Universal seems to have answered that question by getting its successful street racing franchise back into the fast lane this weekend with Fast & Furious. The movie, which reunites Vin Diesel, Paul Walker, Jordana Brewster and Michelle Rodriguez for the first time since 2001’s original surprise blockbuster, has exploded to a high octane $30.11M or so on Friday and that could mean a $70M opening weekend. That would make it the all-time #1 opening for a car racing movie.

Pixar's beloved CARS will likely have only the second-best opening for an auto racing movie by Monday

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR AUTO RACING MOVIES
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $70M opening (projected)
2. Cars – $60.1M opening
3. 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003) – $50.4M opening
4. Talladega Nights – $47M opening
5. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $40M opening
6. The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift (2006) – $24M opening
7. Speed Racer – $18.5M opening
8. Days of Thunder – $15.5M opening
9. Herbie: Fully Loaded – $12.7M opening
10. Death Race – $12.6M opening

How big is that $30.11M opening day? It is the all-time biggest debut gross for any movie not released in the summer peak (May – July) and the November-December holiday period.

ALL-TIME BIGGEST OPENING DAYS FOR NON-PEAK RELEASES
- non-peak is defined as May thru July & November-December -
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $30.11M opening day (estimated)
2. 300 – $28.1M opening day
3. Passion of the Christ – $26.5M opening day
4. Watchmen – $24.5M opening day
5. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $21.7M opening day

The Fast franchise has an odd history. 2001’s The Fast & The Furious scored a blistering $40M opening weekend and reached $144.5M domestic and over $200M worldwide. Then the enigmatic Diesel decided that he didn’t like the script for the proposed sequel. Boyz n the Hood’s John Singleton took the reigns from Rob Cohen and Walker returned for 2 Fast 2 Furious, which still scorted an impressive $127M in the US sans Diesel. Then in 2006, Universal rebooted without Diesel or Walker with The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift, and the fan base eroded considerably as the poorly-received movie generated only $62.5M after a sluggish $23.9M 3-day start.

Now, the original cast returns with Tokyo Drift director Justin Lin at the helm, and those Under 25 Males are showing up (dragging their girlfriends no doubt), and the reaction across the social networking platform Twitter is very telling. The first thing I noticed. Lots of sellouts and long lines.

• damn fast and furious full till 11
• Standing in line for Fast and Furious earlier show was sold out. I so hope it is worth this.
• Didn’t realize fast and furious would do so much business.
• Just saw Fast & Furious. It was crazazy. The theater was packed and every show was sold out. I loved it!
• Waiting in line to see Fast and Furious. Really long line!
• too many people watching fast and furious tonight!
• is watching monsters vs. aliens, only because Fast and Furious was sold out. :/

As far as instant reaction from the Twitteratti, it seems roughly split 60% positive and 40% negative. Here are some “thumbs up” Tweets.

• Just hopped outta Fast and Furious. Forget 2 and 3, this was the real sequel. Better than you hope it’ll be, I promise.
• new fast and furious = AMAZING
• Fast and Furious 4… wow, what a movie! For boys, that is.
• Fast and Furious 4, great action movie. It’s as good as the first one. SpitBaby gives it 4 of 5 stars.
• Saw Fast and Furious tonight. It was pretty darn good! Lots of American Muscle.

Not everyone agrees however. Some are Twittering their disapproval.

• The ‘Fast and the Furious’ perfectly describes how I would leave that movie.
• just saw the new fast and furious.bad as expected.
• just got home from seeing FAST AND FURIOUS! IT SUCKED!!!
• Fast and Furious: Not bad, but I wouldn’t tell you to pay theatre $ to see it unless you’re a fan of the first movie. Too many jump cuts.
• Fast and Furious: worst movie ever.
• fast and furious was awful. whats the appeal? minus hot guys, crappy cars and chicks making out? no thanks

For Vin Diesel, this weekend’s opening is an all-time best, and you’ve got to wonder who gives him career advice. He walked away from the both 2 Fast 2 Furious and the sequel to the highly lucrative XXX (XXX:State of the Union was ultimately made with Ice Cube as the lead grossing just $26.8M domestic, but it would have certainly performed much better as a Diesel project).

ALL-TIME TOP 5 VIN DIESEL OPENINGS
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $70M opening (projected)
2. XXX – $44.5M opening
3. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $40M
4. The Pacifier – $30.5M opening
5. The Chronicles of Riddick – $24.3M opening

Meanwhile, thanks to the F&F hot wheels, Paul Walker has three $40M+ openings on his resume.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 PAUL WALKER OPENINGS
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $70M opening (projected)
2. 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003) – $50.4M opening
3. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $40M opening
4. Eight Below – $20.1M opening
5. She’s All That – $16M opening

MVA still a MONSTER at the box office - especially in 3-D

Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) continues to be a box office juggernaut as it begins its second weekend. The animated send-up of B-movie sci-fi from the 1950’s continues to be fueled by its 2,075 or so standard Digital 3-D engagements and the added 143 Digital IMAX runs scoring an exceedingly strong $8.9M on Friday, which will likely translate to an estimated $35.6M for the frame and a 10-day cume of almost $108M. That will represent an approximate weekend drop of just 40%, which is impressive given that the opening 3-day was $59.3M.

Possibly the creepiest movie poster ever

The Lionsgate genre pic The Haunting in Connecticut sold another $3.67M in tickets on its second Friday, and it should reach about $10.65M by Monday for a new cume of $38.47M. That would mean a drop of only 54%, very good for a horror flick.

Jason Segal unleashes the crazies on passerby on the Venice Boardwalk in I LOVE YOU, MAN

Meanwhile Knowing (Summit) and I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) will both spend another week in the top five. The Alex Proyas-directed Nicolas Cage vehicle managed $2.67M to start the 3-day, and Knowing may reach $8.69M by Monday. With a new cume of $58.76M, the gang at Summit has a shot to push this one just past $70M in the US. John Hamburg’s Apatow-style comedy with the inspired pairing of Paul Rudd and Jason Segal is also holding strong with an estimated $2.73M in tickets sold on Friday and a weekend target of $8.69M. I Love You, Man could reach $65M domestic before it wraps its theatrical engagements.

The news is not good for the well-reviewed Miramax release Adventureland. Despite a score of 89% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, Greg Mottola’s much-anticipated follow-up to Superbad has stumbled out of the gates with just $2.17M from 1,862 playdates. The weekend gross will likely be in the $6.05M range for a Per Theatre Average of just $3,249.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Fast & Furious (Universal) – $30.11M, $8,088 PTA, $28M cume
2. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.9M, $2,169 PTA, $81.09M cume
3. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $3.67M, $1,345 PTA, $31.36M cume
4. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.73M, $1,052 PTA, $44.17M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) – $2.67M, $805 PTA, $52.74M cume
6. NEW – Adventureland (Miramax) – $2.17M, $1,168 PTA, $2.17M cume
7. Duplicity (Universal) – $1.43M, $571 PTA, $29.5M cume
8. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $970,000, $343 PTA, $56M cume
9. 12 Rounds (Fox) – $850,000, $365 PTA, $7.57M cume
10. Sunshine Cleaning (Overture) – $580,000, $1,211 PTA, $4.05M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Fast & Furious (Universal) – $70M, $20,220 PTA, $70M cume
2. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $35.6M, $8,674 PTA, $107.79M cume
3. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $10.65M, $3,901 PTA, $38.34M cume
4. Knowing (Summit) – $8.69M, $2,616 PTA, $58.76M cume
5. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.69M, $3,342 PTA, $50.12M cume
6. NEW – Adventureland (Miramax) – $6.05M, $3,249 PTA, $6.05M cume
7. Duplicity (Universal) – $4.56M, $1,810 PTA, $32.63M cume
8. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $3.49M, $1,235 PTA, $58.52M cume
9. 12 Rounds (Fox) – $2.7M, $1,158 PTA, $9.42M cume
10. Sunshine Cleaning (Fox) – $2.03M, $4,238 PTA, $5.5M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

The original The Fast & The Furious hit theatres in 2001 under the direction of Rob Cohen who had shown a knack for action with Dragon: The Bruce Lee Story ($35M US cume) and Sly Stallone’s Daylight ($33M US cume) and a savvy feel for bigger-than-life characters in his Golden Globe winning biopic The Rat Pack (which, if you’ve never seen you should put in your Netflix cue and prepare to be amazed by Don Cheadle’s turn as Sammy Davis, Jr.). In tow, he had a 34-year-old Vin Diesel in only his second starring role following the surprise low budget hit Pitch Black ($39M cume) and 28-year-old Paul Walker, who had just starred in Cohen’s forgettable The Skulls. Also in the cast was Jordana Brewster (As the World Turns) and a pre-Lost Michelle Rodriguez, whose most notable credit was a gritty little indie called Girlfight.

Vin Diesel returns for FAST & FURIOUS

The result was box office jet fuel. Seemingly out of nowhere, The Fast & The Furious scored a scalding $40M opening weekend and reached $144.5M domestic and over $200M worldwide. But Diesel, whose signature line in the original movie is “I live my life one quarter of a mile at a time,” didn’t like the script for the sequel (or they wouldn’t pay his asking price depending on who you ask). That led to the 2003 sequel 2 Fast 2 Furious directed by Academy Award nominee John Singleton (Boyz n the Hood) starring Walker along with rapper Tyrese Gibson and Eva Mendes. Despite Diesel’s conspicuous absence, 2 Fast still delivered $127M in the US.

Two years later came the disastrous re-imagining of the franchise with The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift. No Diesel. No Walker. The movie featured Zachery Ty Bryan from TV’s Home Improvement and the very solid Lucas Black, who had just played quarterback Mike Winchell in the film version of Friday Night Lights and as a kid co-starred with Billy Bob Thornton in Sling Blade. The third movie in the franchise “drifted” toward irrelevancy with a very soft $23.9M opening and only $62.5M domestic.

Now, as The Blues Brothers once famously said, “We’re getting the band back together!” Diesel. Walker. The still beautiful Brewster. And, the edgy Rodriguez, who, ironically, has one of the worst driving records in history (a hit-and-run, 2 DUIs and at least 3 speeding tickets including one for 90mph in a 35mph zone). This time, they are under the direction of Tokyo Drift director Justin Lin, and the reviews are less than sparkling (18% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but there are some credible positive notices, including Kirk Honeycutt from the Hollywood Reporter who says, “All four films feature terrific stunts. But Fast & Furious is the first film since the original to be smart about how far to stretch logic without sacrificing the desired macho swagger and revved-up emotions.”

Diesel and Paul Walker - 8 years older

The average street racing fan is unlikely to be a Hollywood Reporter reader, and the PG-13 rating will allow for a flood of teen boys, who have grown up playing video games like Grand Theft Auto, to pour into theatres for some high octane fun. The tracking, especially Males Under 25, looks very strong, and my prediction is for $48M, but I won’t be surprised to see it speed past $50M.

Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) has been performing very well during the week, especially in those communities where kids are off for spring break. I’ll be surprised if MVA dips much more than 40% from its $59.3M opening frame. I’m predicting a $35.4M second weekend, which would mean a spectacular 10-day cume of about $106.7M.

With only two new, wide releases, The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) should hold up better-than-the-average horror movie. I am anticipating about $11.7M, which would mark only a 49% drop. With a new cume of about $40M by Monday, this low budget special will have made back its budget twice over before its done (not to mention ancillary rights).

Nicolas Cage in KNOWING

The latest from Nicolas Cage and directed by Alex Proyas (Dark City, I Robot), is nearing profitability as well. Knowing (Summit), with a reported budget of $50M, is likely to bank another $8.7M over the weekend for a new cume of almost $59M. It is opening decently in foreign markets including $5M+ in Russia.

Director Greg Mottola’s long-awaited follow-up to mega-hit Superbad ($121M US) is the much lower profile Adventureland from Miramax. The reviews are through the roof with an 85% Fresh rating from Rotten Tomatoes, and especially noteworthy is Kenneth Turan of the LA Times who writes, “With a cast that believed in one another and a writer-director who believed he didn’t have to follow up Superbad with SuperEvenBadder, Adventureland is the kind of adventure we could all use more of.”

This is the kind of movie that could surprise because of positive buzz, but with only 1,862 screens, it’s hard to generate an eye-popping number. I’m penciling Adventureland in for $8.1M, which would still be an impressive $4,350 Per Theatre Average.

Also continuing to perform well will be I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount), adding another $7.9M or so (a small drop in the 35%-40% range). It is possible that the John Hamburg buddy comedy could top $50M by Monday.

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR APRIL 3-5
1. NEW – Fast & Furious (Universal) – $48M
2. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $35.4M
3. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $11.7M
4. Knowing (Summit) – $8.6M
5. NEW – Adventureland (Miramax) -$8.1M
6. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $7.9M
7. Duplicity (Universal) – $4.9M
8. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $3.25M
9. 12 Rounds (Fox) – $2.3M
10. Taken (Fox) – $1.4M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

MONSTERS VS. ALIENS towers over previous 3-D releases from Hollywood

If that number holds, and, if anything, they could drift higher as family audiences flood America’s multiplexes, Monsters vs. Aliens will be the all-time third-best opening in the month of March.

Still the all-time March opening weekend champion

ALL-TIME TOP 5 MARCH OPENINGS
1. 300 – $70.8M opening
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $68M opening
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (2009) – $58M opening (projected estimate)
4. Watchmen – $55.2M opening
5. Ice Age – $46.3M opening

But this is more than a conventional 35MM movie. This kind of number sends a message to theatre owners, credit markets and other studios that the all-new Digital 3-D is here to stay. With 40+ major 3-D movies on the way to the marketplace, it was important for MVA to demonstrate the potential of this new technology.

Jeffrey Katzenberg, leading the 3-D charge for the industry

Yes, Dreamworks Animation head Jeffrey Katzenberg wanted more 3-D screens to be ready (he was hoping for at least 1,000 more), but this is a triumph.

As always, I am monitoring the Twitter-verse for instant reactions from movie-goers who have seen the film on opening day. It is very hard to find anyone with a negative reaction.

Kids and I just home from Monsters vs. Aliens 3-D version. WOW, 3-D has come a long way!

Imax + 3-D totally worth it just to watch your kid try to reach out and grab things in mid-air

Did Monsters vs. Alien in 3-D today with the family. My first 3-D movie at a theater, very cool we had a BLAST!

Monsters Vs. Aliens, 8 thumbs up from the family! Great job with the 3-D as well, not cheesy at all unlike 3D movies when I was a kid.

Saw Monsters vs. Aliens in 3-D today. Go see it. It’s freakin’ cool!

The 3-D glasses these days are cool–they look like sunglasses

LOVED LOVED LOVED Monsters vs. Aliens. Fun for grown ups and kids. And I still have the marks on my face from the 3-D glasses. Can you tell?

The 3-D version of Monsters vs. Aliens is presented in modern Digital 3-D. The original 3-D movies of the 1950’s like Bwana Devil, starring Robert Stack, were primitive, but became a sensation. That movie’s tagline was “A Lion in Your Lap, A Lover in Your Arms,” and it was presented using polarized images by Arch Oboler’s production company.

Then Oboler and a former US military 3-D mapmaker developed trioptiscope that allowed images to float off of the screen. They dubbed this Space-Vision, and it required the use of those infamous cardboard glasses with the red and green cellophane lenses. Oboler released a movie called The Bubble in the late 1960’s, which failed to catch on, and then it was renamed and re-released in 1976 as The Fantastic Invasion of Planet Earth. The modest success of the latter version of the movie led to a new generation of filmmakers trying their hand at 3-D. Along came Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D (1982), Jaws 3-D (1983) and Amityville Horror 3-D (1983). Same Space-Vision technology with cardboard glasses and loads of cheap gimmickry.

The monstrous opening weekend for Monsters vs. Aliens easily dwarfs previous 3-D releases including all-time champ Spy Kids 3-D from 2003 (in old-style Space-Vision).

ALL-TIME TOP 13 OPENINGS FOR 3-D MOVIES
- identified with year of release & type of 3-D –
1. Monsters vs. Aliens (2009 – Digital 3-D) – $58M opening (projected estimate)
2. Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over (2003 – Space-Vision 3-D) – $33.4M opening – $111.7M cume
3. Hannah Montana: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (2008 – Digital 3-D) – $31.1M opening – $65.2M cume
4. Beowulf (2007 – Digital 3-D) – $27.5M opening – $82.3M cume
5. Bolt (2008 – Digital 3-D) – $26.2M opening – $114M cume
6. The Polar Express (2004 – Digital 3-D) – $23.3M opening – $180.8M cume
7. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (2009 – Digital 3-D) – $21.2M opening – $51.5M cume
8. Journey To the Center of the Earth (2008 – Digital 3-D) – $21M opening – $101.7M cume
9. Coraline (2009 – Digital 3-D) – $16.8M opening – $73.6M cume
10. Jaws 3-D (1983 – Space-Vision 3-D) – $13.4M opening – $45.5M cume
11. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (2009 – Digital 3-D)- $12.5M opening – $19.1M cume
11. The Adventures of Sharkboy & Lava Girl 3-D (2005) – $12.5M opening – $39.1M cume
13. Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D (1982 – Space-Vision 3-D) – $9.4M opening – $36.7M cume

Based on an opening weekend of this magnitude, Monsters vs. Aliens will chart a course for $190M-$200M in the US. It is possible that it will exceed the $215M scored by last summer’s Kung Fu Panda, also from Dreamworks. The worldwide box office number may top $525M.

Lionsgate is proving that there is always room for a genre pic with a surprising upside surprise for The Haunting in Connecticut. With Oscar nominee Virginia Madsen (Sideways) as the only real name on the marquee, the low budget PG-13 scarefest scored a far-above-expectations $9.6M on opening day to kick off what should be a possible $22.9M weekend. (I would argue that the incredibly creepy poster is responsible for the surprisingly strong debut.)

Summit’s Knowing, directed by Alex Proyas and starring Nicolas Cage, has held up far better-than-expected. Last weekend’s champ added $4.6M on its second Friday, and its 3-day target is $14.4M, enough for third place. That would give the film a 10-day cume of $45.91M.

Jason Segal (left) and Paul Rudd in I LOVE YOU, MAN

The hilarious I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) will probably dip only 30% or so from its opening. The John Hamburg comedy delivered another $4M in ticket sales, and it is #4 and cruising toward a possible $12.2M by Monday morning for a new cume of $36.6M.

Bad news for Tony Gilroy’s Duplicity (Universal), starring Julia Roberts and Clive Owen. The adult comedy/mystery slumped to just $2.3M to start the frame, and it will manage only a fifth-place finish with $7.5M or so. That is a 47% drop and a new domestic take of just over $25M.

Meanwhile, pro wrestler-turned-actor John Cena and former superstar director Renny Harlin (Diehard 2, Cliffhanger) have launched 12 Rounds (Fox), which has failed to ignite much excitement. The action flick managed only a disastrous $1.8M on Friday and is headed for an underwhelming $5M opening.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $16.7M, $4,069 PTA, $16.7M cume
2. NEW – The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $9.6M, $3,520 PTA, $9.6M cume
3. Knowing (Summit) – $4.6M, $1,378 PTA, $36.11M cume
4. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $4M, $1,472 PTA, $28.4M cume
5. Duplicity (Universal) – $2.3M, $895 PTA, $20.4M cume
6. NEW – 12 Rounds (Fox) – $1.8M, $790 PTA, $1.8M cume
7. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $1.5M, $459 PTA, $49.15M cume
8. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $870,000, $370 PTA, $26.7M cume
9. Taken (Fox) – $820,000, $418 PTA, $135.19M cume
10. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $725,000, $361 PTA, $101.26M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $58M, $14,133 PTA, $58M cume
2. NEW – The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $22.9M, $8,380 PTA, $22.9M cume
3. Knowing (Summit) – $14.4M, $4,315 PTA, $45.91M cume
4. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $12.2M, $4,490 PTA, $36.6M cume
5. Duplicity (Universal) – $7.5M, $2,908 PTA, $25.6M cume
6. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $5.3M, $1,580 PTA, $52.9M cume
7. NEW – 12 Rounds (Fox) – $5M, $1,368 PTA, $5M cume
8. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $2.75M, $1,368 PTA, $103.25M cume
9. Taken (Fox) – $2.5M, $1,275 PTA, $137M
10. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $2.48M, $1,102 PTA, $28.32M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Jeffrey Katzenberg - The Pied Piper for Digital 3-D

ALL-TIME WIDEST NON-SUMMER RELEASES
- with summer defined as May 1 – August 30 -
1. 3/27/09 – Monsters Vs. Aliens – 4,104 playdates
2. 11/07/08 – Madagascar 2 – 4,056 playdates
3. 10/01/04 – Shark Tale – 4,016
4. 3/31/06 – Ice Age: The Meltdown – 3,964
5. 3/14/08 – Dr. Suess’ Horton Hears A Who – 3,954

Many of those playdates are multiple screen engagements. In fact, MVA will be on over 7,000 screens. Screen counts are generally treated as “state secrets” at studios. Sony was able to secure a reported 10,000 screens for Spider-Man 3 with its 4,252 playdates back in May of 2007 (that’s an average of 2.35 screens per playdate). The all-time playdate record still belongs to The Dark Knight last July with 4,366, but TDK’s screen count was just over 9,200 (2.1 screens per location). Based on that calculation, Dreamworks/Paramount has on average 1.7 screens at each of its playdates.

THE DARK KNIGHT still holds the record for most playdates

This is a big, broad 93 minute family film, not a long, dark comic book opus (Spider-Man 3 was 139 minutes long and The Dark Knight was 152 minutes). The main reason for MVA’s high screen count is 3-D. Athough when Katzenberg announced Monsters Vs. Aliens, he envisioned as many as 4,000 3-D screens, the economy has not cooperated, slowing digital conversion and limiting the number of 3-D runs. The final count of actual 3-D engagements is an estimated 2,218 (that includes 143 IMAX 3-D runs).

If you have not seen one of the all-new digital 3-D releases, you must first forget about past experiences with 3-D.  Hollywood’s first flirtation was in the 1950’s with movies like House of Wax and Bwana Devil. Then during my high school years, the early 1980’s, 3-D made a brief resurgence with Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D (1982), Jaws 3-D (1983) and Amityville Horror 3-D (1983). The technology hadn’t changed. It was  still cardboard glasses with colored cellophane lenses and loads of cheap gimmickry.

BOX OFFICE FOR 3-D FILMS OF THE 1980’S
Jaws 3-D – $13.4M opening – $45.5M cume
Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D – $9.4M opening – $36.7M cume
Amityville 3-D – $2.3M opening – $6.3M cume

This new 3-D technology is very different. It is made possible by digital presentation along with Real-D 3-D added. The cost of converting an individual theatre to 3-D is about $100,000 per screen. That includes digital projection, the most expensive piece at $75,000, the Real-D system, the special screen required and all installation. When Jeffrey Katzenberg planted his 3-D blockbuster Monsters Vs. Aliens on the release calendar two years ago, he could not have anticipated the worldwide economic meltdown.

Today's 3-D experience is very different from the 50's

Instead of exhibitors frantically ramping up digital conversion to show Monsters Vs. Aliens on as many 3-D screens as possible, the frozen credit markets stifled progress. Theatre chains and independent theatres have had trouble securing the financing to undertake conversions, and it is very uphill, even with distributors offering to pay a “virtiual print fee” to help cover the costs.

Dreamworks isn’t the only studio with a lot riding on the success of Monsters Vs. Aliens. Disney/Pixar’s next film Up is in 3-D, then there’s the Robert Zemeckis 3-D version of A Christmas Carol for the holidays, and in December, James Cameron’s Avatar, his first major wide release since Titanic. There are over 40 major 3-D movies in the pipeline right now. If Monsters Vs. Aliens scores big, it will be a strong incentive for theatre-owners to convert more theatres to digital.

If you are taking the kids to see MVA this weekend, be prepared for a $2-$3.50 upcharge. It may seem outrageous, but soon after you settle into your seat, you will realize that it is worth the extra couple of bucks. Digital 3-D is truly spectacular, and not in a gimmicky way. You just feel like you are in a different world. You’ll forget you’re wearing the stylish new 3-D glasses, and you can take part in what I think is a major innovation for the industry.

Reviews for Monsters Vs. Aliens are outstanding (73% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), and the pre-opening tracking is now sizzling. Given that there is an upcharge on 3-D and a bigger upcharge on 3-D IMAX, I think MVA will beat the $50M-$55M industry expectation. I believe this one will get past $60M by Monday, and, with Easter in two weeks and spring break taking place around the country for school kids, this picture has a real shot at $200M domestic and could surpass Kung Fu Panda’s $215M. Worldwide, the cutting edge animated movie will likely exceed $600M.

The new Lionsgate genre pic The Haunting in Connecticut seems destined for mid-teens and a distant second, although word-of-mouth for I Love You Man is very good, and Dreamworks has an outside shot to finish 1-2. The Nic Cage sci-fi thriller Knowing (Summit) is likely to dip more than 50%, while the entertaining Julia Roberts-Clive Owen comedy/mystery Duplicity (Universal) seems as though it will hold more strongly, possibly down just 30%-35% from opening weekend for a second top five finish.

FINAL BOX OFFICE FORECAST FOR MARCH 27-29
1. NEW – Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $60.64M
2. NEW – The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $14.6M
3. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $12M
4. Knowing (Summit) – $11.8M
5. Duplicity (Universal) – $9.67M
6. NEW – 12 Rounds (Fox) – $8.1M
7. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $7.14M
8. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $2.58M
9. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $2.56M
10. Taken (Fox) – $1.94M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

As a production company, Summit is responsible for some monster hits, including commercially and/or artistically successful films like Once (Oscar nominee for Best Picture), American Pie ($102..5M domestic), Memento (Oscar nominee for Best Original Screenplay: Chris Nolan), Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($186.3M domestic) and In the Valley of Ellah (Tommy Lee Jones nominated for Best Actor). But as a distributor, they got off to a slow start.

SUMMIT RELEASES
- in sequential order -
11/9/07 – P2 – $4M cume
2/29/08 – Penelope – $10M cume
3/14/08 – Never Back Down – $24.8M cume
8/15/08 – Fly Me To the Moon – $13.2M cume
10/17/08 – Sex Drive – $8.4M cume
11/21/08 – Twilight – $191.3M cume
2/6/09 – Push – $30.9M cume
3/20/09 – Knowing – $24.8M opening – $55M-$60M projected cume

As I wrote Friday, I think that word-of-mouth is weak for Knowing, but the movie held up pretty well over opening weekend. It is definitely helped by it’s PG-13 rating, its appeal to Males Under 25 (especially Under 17’s), and its similarity to Cage’s National Treasure franchise.

Meanwhile, I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) ticked up 8% on Saturday to about $6.8M, and it will have banked about $18M by Monday morning. That is on par with Paul Rudd’s Role Models ($19.1M opening) and Jason Segal’s Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($17.7M opening). I’m sticking with $65M-$70M as my projection for domestic box office for this very funny movie that happens to have a very good heart.

I really wonder about the R-rating for I Love You, Man. It is a very, very soft R. There is no nudity or sex (although there are references to oral sex in particular), and it doesn’t roll up a high count of F-bombs. It seems to me that the ratings board was hard on this one, and a PG-13 rating could have meant an additional $5M-$8M (at least) on opening weekend.

DUPLICITY is Julia Roberts' first feature lead since 2003's MONA LISA SMILE

The other new wide release is Duplicity (Universal), starring Julia Roberts and Clive Owen. This is a very smart, densely-plotted, stylish-looking movie for grown-ups. Writer/director Tony Gilroy is among the best screenwriters in town with all three Jason Bourne movies on his resume along with the legal thriller Michael Clayton, nominated for 7 Academy Awards.

With Females 25 Plus as its most important demo, the film got a big 27% Saturday bump to almost $6M. I saw the movie Saturday night, and it was about 60% women with lots of women in pairs and groups. That is a very good sign for future weeks since Females 25 Plus are never in a rush to see a movie on opening weekend. The audience I was in was mesmerized and laughed in all the right places, but overall, the CinemaScore exit survey was only a C. I still belive that, after a $14.4M third-place finish, Duplicity will get to the $45M-$50M range in the US.

Not strong enough to hold an audience for weekend #2 of RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN

Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) is not holding well at all, dipping to $13M for the weekend. A 46% second weekend drop spells an early end for the new one starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. It is just not especially well-liked, and Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks Animation) will destroy it next weekend.

Sorry Rohrschach, WATCHMEN is completely burned out

Finally, Watchmen (Warner Bros) suffered a second consecutive disastrous 3-day, down another 62% to $6.7M for a 17-day cume of $98M. Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s classic graphic novel is unlikely to reach much past $110M in the US, and with a soft foreign performance as well, it will struggle to reach any real profitability.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $24.81M, $7,447 PTA, $24.81M cume
2. NEW – I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $18M, $6,640 PTA, $18M cume
3. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $14.4M, $5,595 PTA, $14.4M cume
4. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $13M, $4,080 PTA, $44.71M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $6.72M, $1,916 PTA, $98M cume
6. The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.92M, $2,465 PTA, $24.04M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $4.4M, $1,654 PTA, $133.43M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.7M, $1,306 PTA, $137.2M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.51M, $1,368 PTA, $87.2M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.14M, $1,498 PTA, $72.8M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Will reviews and word-of-mouth catch up to KNOWING?

Reviews for Knowing, written and directed by Alex Proyas, the inventive filmmaker behind the visually striking 1998 film Dark City and the 2004 Will Smith mega-hit I, Robot, has received overwhelmingly negative reviews (25% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but thanks to Twitter, real-time movie-goer reactions spread like wildfire. Here are some Tweets I just grabbed off the social networking platform.

You can Follow me on Twitter@LAMase

Just saw the Knowing. How and why some movies get made is beyond me.

Nobody go see Knowing.

The Knowing was a great movie. BUT it made absolutely no sense, got kinda scary, and made me cry.. three times. Imagine Noah’s Ark in space.

Getting home from a lame movie. “Knowing” is better left unknown.

Just saw “Knowing” with Nicholas Cage – LOVED IT – don’t think many will though

Notice the last Tweet. That movie fan is actually already anticipating bad word-of-mouth. Maybe they saw Knowing with friends, and they were the only one who liked it, or maybe the general reaction in the theatre was negative. Here’s an even scarier Tweet.

I’m in the worst movie ever, Knowing. Horrible.

Think about this. Someone is sitting in the theatre on a Friday night, and, while the movie is still playing, they send out a terrible personal review. Studios used to be able to count on suckering people into theatres for a bad movie as long as they had a big star and some cool commercials. Now, because of texting, Twitter and even Facebook (which has switched to a more Twitter-like status report format), poor reviews from Friday ticket-buyers may depress box office on Saturday and Sunday.

You have to wonder who is giving Academy Award winner Nicolas Cage career advice. Look at the Rotten Tomatoes review scores for his last 10 movies.

ROTTEN TOMATOES REVIEW SCORES FOR THE LAST 10 NIC CAGE MOVIES
-live action lead roles -
Knowing – 25%
Bangkok Dangerous – 9%
Ghost Rider – 27%
National Treasure 2 – 32%
Next – 30%
The Wicker Man – 15%
World Trade Center – 70%
Lord of War – 61%
The Weather Man – 57%
National Treasure – 43%

Obviously, there is sometimes a huge disconnect between critical and commercial success. Ghost Rider and the National Treasure films were huge blockbuster hits, but The Wicker Man, Next, and Bangkok Dangerous were flat-out awful.

From Best Actor to WICKER MAN

Despite initial reactions, the family-friendly PG-13 rating and similarity to National Treasure will still sell some tickets in the next few weeks. The movie is likely headed to something in the $52-$60M range in the US, and it will likely perform fairly well overseas because of Cage’s drawing power.

Jason Segal (left) and Paul Rudd, the likable stars of John Hamburg's I LOVE YOU, MAN

At #2 for the day, and most likely for the 3-day, is John Hamburg’s I Love You, Man starring Paul Rudd and Jason Segal. Riding phenomenal reviews (81% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and huge buzz from its screening at the South By Southwest Conference and Festival, the R-rated comedy has opened to about $6.35M Friday, and I am projecting $18M for opening weekend.

Among the Twitteratti (tech slang for the early adopters of Twitter), I Love You, Man is already a word-of-mouth hit. Here are some sample Tweets.

go see I Love You Man, its HILARIOUS.

i love you, man is one of the funniest movies i have seen in a while.

Just saw I Love You, Man. Waaaaaay funnier than I expected. Oh god, it was good. Stay a little bit into the credits if you go.

Just saw “I love you, Man” it was awesome!

Just saw “I Love You Man.” Loved it! Haven’t laughed that hard in awhile!

I love I Love You, Man. I’m also in love with Rashida Jones.

“I Love You, Man” – while not lol hysterical, was pretty funny in parts (albeit raunchy) … overall, I enjoyed it … solid B or B+

We are in a sort of a Golden Age for raunchy R-rated comedy, and this movie is an above average example. Rudd, who made his name as a supporting player in Judd Apatow films like Anchorman and The 40-Year-Old Virgin, is on a roll. Fresh from the success of last year’s Role Models ($67.3M US), he is the protagonist here, playing a charming dork without a best friend to be the best man at his wedding. Enter Jason Segal from TV’s How I Met Your Mother, a guy who scored huge with last year’s sleeper hit Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($63.1M domestic). As Sydney Fife, Segal is the ideal Venice Beach bum talking about his “Man Cave” and idolizing the band Rush, which reached its pinnacle in the 70’s and 80’s.

Writer/director John Hamburg

Writer/director John Hamburg, who previously wrote the classic Meet the Parents, followed by Zoolander (a cult fave of many) and Meet the Fockers (a mega-hit with over $500M worldwide despite falling well short of the laughs in the original Meet the Parents), made his directorial debut with the forgettable Along Came Polly ($88M domestic), starring Ben Stiller and Jennifer Aniston.

Rashida Jones, the daughter of musical legend Quincy Jones and 1970's icon Peggy Lipton (THE MOD SQUAD), co-stars in I LOVE YOU, MAN

If you wouldn’t have shown me the credits for I Love You, Man, I would have assumed that comedy king Judd Apatow has something to do with this one, but his name is nowhere to be found. Hamburg has grabbed reliable Apatow players like Rudd and Segal (Apatow produced Forgetting Sarah Marshall and the short-lived TV series Undeclared, starring Segal), and created a pic that looks and feels like an Apatow movie.

In my mind, the so-called Golden Age of R-rated comedy began in the summer of 2005 with Wedding Crashers and The 40-Year-Old Virgin. Audiences have a real appetite for this niche, and, aside from Will Ferrell’s misguided hoops pic Semi-Pro, The Heartbreak Kid from the Farrelly Brothers and Weinstein Company’s 2008 Zack & Miri Make a Porno, the movies have delivered both critically and commercially.

THE TOP 15 GROSSING R-RATED COMEDIES FROM “THE GOLDEN AGE”
1. 7/15/05 – Wedding Crashers – $33.9M opening – $209.2M cume
2. 8/17/07 – Superbad – $33M opening – $121.4M cume
3. 7/25/08 – Step Brothers – $30.9M opening – $100.4M cume
4. 6/1/07 – Knocked Up – $30.7M opening – $148.8M cume
5. 11/3/06 – Borat – $26.4M opening – $128.5M cume
6. 8/13/08 – Tropic Thunder – $25.8M opening – $110.5M cume
7. 8/6/08 – Pineapple Express – $23.2M opening – $87.3M cume
8. 8/19/05 – The 40-Year-Old Virgin – $21.4M opening – $109.4M cume
9. 11/7/08 – Role Models – $19.1M opening – $67.3M cume
10. 4/18/08 – Forgetting Sarah Marshall – $17.7M opening – $63.1M cume
11. 2/29/08 – Semi-Pro – $15M opening – $33.5M cume
12. 10/5/07 – The Heartbreak Kid – $14M opening – $36.8M cume
13. 9/21/07 – Good Luck Chuck – $13.6M opening – $35M cume
14. 10/31/08 – Zack & Miri Make A Porno – $10M opening – $31.4M cume
15. 8/25/06 – Beerfest – $7M opening – $19.2M cume

The multiple – the number you multiply opening weekend by in order to reach the final domestic gross – will be high here. My early rough projection for gross domestic box office for I Love You, Man is something in the $67M-$75M range.

Tony Gilroy with his MICHAEL CLAYTON star George Clooney

The other wide release is Tony Gilroy’s Duplicity (Universal), starring Oscar winner Julia Roberts and Academy Awards nominee Clive Owen. Gilroy is directing for only the second-time after his Oscar nominated performance with Michael Clayton. He is a writer first, and, in addition to scripting the three Jason Bourne movies, he loves corporate paranoia (like in 1997’s over-the-top The Devil’s Advocate) and intricate plotting (as in 2000’s Proof of Life and Michael Clayton). Duplicity plays to his strengths.

Does she still have "it"?

Despite the presence of the rarely-seen Roberts, the film has failed to top industry expectations. Duplicty grabbed an estimated $4.7M on opening day and seems headed for about $14.86M and fourth-place by Monday. I have been told that Duplicity received a very soft C rating from opening day audiences surveyed by CinemaScore, but because 25 Plus Females don’t always rush right out to see a movie, this one could still get to $40M-$45M domestic, which would be respectable.

I had penciled in Disney’s Race To Witch Mountain, starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, for #3 with about $17M, but the movie is not holding well at all. Race managed only $3.8M on its second Friday, and I am targeting $14.63M for the weekend. That’s a 10-day cume of a rather soft $46.34M. The Dreamworks Animation 3-D spectacle Monsters Vs. Aliens will wipe it out next weekend.

It's past Doomsday for WATCHMEN

Rounding out the top five is Watchmen (Warner Bros), suffering another 62% drop. The Zack Snyder-directed graphic novel adaptation sold just $2M in tickets Friday, and the 3-day will be about $7M, and possibly less. On Monday, the movie’s domestic take will be at $97.81M, and Watchmen will look to fizzle to about $110M in the US.

PLEASE NOTE: I appreciate links to this column, but on some sites, people have been copying and pasting the whole column. It’s fine if some numbers are re-printed, but please link for the full story. Thanks!

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $8.95M, $2,686 PTA, $8.95M cume
2. NEW – I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $6.35M, $2,342 PTA, $6.35M cume
3. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $4.7M, $1,825 PTA, $4.7M cume
4. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $3.8M, $1,192 PTA, $35.51M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $2M, $577 PTA, $93.36M cume
6. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $1.97M, $820 PTA, $20.09M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $1.37M, $517 PTA, $130.41M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $800,000, $391 PTA, $135.3M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $795,000, $433 PTA, $85.49M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $630,000, $440 PTA, 71.34M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $23.27M, $6,984 PTA, $23.27M cume
2. NEW – I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $18M, $6,640 PTA, $18M cume
3. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $14.63M, $4,591 PTA, $46.34M cume
4. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $13.86M, $5,384 PTA, $13.86M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $6.48M, $1,846 PTA, $97.81M cume
6. The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.31M, $2,213 PTA, $23.44M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $4.4M, $1,654 PTA, $133.43M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.93M, $1,428 PTA, $137.44M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.74M, $1,495 PTA, $87.44M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.29M, $1,607 PTA, $73M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

In the spirit of March Madness, I’m calling for the upset. I Love You, Man may not actually be a Judd Apatow movie, but it sure does look like one in trailers and commercials. The movie reportedly “rocked the house” at the South By South West Festival last week, and the buzz is very positive. I am calling for $21.5M, which would be above industry expectations.

Robert DeNiro, hilarious in MEET THE PARENTS

Writer/director John Hamburg is at the helm with the likable Rudd and Segal in tow. He previously wrote Meet the Parents (brilliant) and its sequel Meet the Fockers (a lot less brilliant). He also wrote the cult hit Zoolander, which I hated, but has a loyal core of fans.

Meanwhile, tracking suggests that Knowing will open strongly. The reviews are generally negative (21% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but Roger Ebert of the Chicago Sun-Times has published a rave, saying that “Knowing is among the best science-fiction films I’ve seen — frightening, suspenseful, intelligent and, when it needs to be, rather awesome.”

Director Alex Proyas established himself as someone to watch with the striking visuals in 1998’s Dark City, and he followed with the commercially successful Will Smith vehicle I, Robot ($144.8M domestic) in 2004. But It’s been 14 long years since Nicolas Cage won his Academy Award for Best Actor, and he’s made a lot of bad movies since then. In fact, you could argue that nobody makes more bad movies than Cage. Captain Corelli’s Mandolin, Windtalkers, The Weather Man, The Wicker Man, Next and last fall’s Bangkok Dangerous were all commercial failures and critical disasters. Still, it’s hard to argue with the success of 2007’s Ghost Rider ($115.8M in the US) or the $800M worldwide box office generated by the National Treasure franchise.

Knowing looks an awful lot like National Treasure, and with Cage on familiar turf, the picture is likely to click. Industry expectations are that it will win the weekend, but I’m, calling for a #2 finish. I expect the movie to bank a possible $20.25M by Monday.

The third new wide release is Duplicity (Universal), which is running at 59% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. Director Tony Gilroy’s last movie was Michael Clayton, a 7-time Oscar nominee, and I was a huge fan of that George Clooney legal mystery-thriller. There is certainly room in the marketplace for a smart, grown-up movie right now, but whenever you have a film with 25 Plus appeal, the reality is that the audience doesn’t always show up on opening weekend.

The last major studio film with Julia Roberts as the clear lead was 2003’s Mona Lisa Smile ($11.5M opening – $63.8M). Here, she is re-teamed with Closer co-star Clive Owen, who received an Oscar nomination for his work in that dark Mike Nichols-directed relationship drama.

Oscar winner Julia Roberts with husband Danny Moder & kids with (faces blurred)

Is she still a movie star? I say the answer is yes, but her ingénue days are over. With Duplicity, Gilroy has crafted a sort of Mr. & Mrs. Smith with corporate espionage replacing gunplay, and this is exactly the kind of movie Roberts should be making. I am targeting $14.5M for opening weekend, which will likely be enough for a #4 finish, behind Disney’s family-themed Race To Witch Mountain. The latest starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson could dip only 30% to anout $17.1M.

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 20-22
1. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $21.5M
2. Knowing (Summit) – $20.25M
3. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $17.1M
4. Duplicity (Universal) – $14.5M
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $9.6M
6. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $6.35M
7. Taken (Fox) – $5.1M
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $3.8M
9. Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $3.45M
10. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $2.35M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

TOP 10 SATURDAY GROSSES IN 2009
1. March 7 – Watchmen – $18.3M
2. February 21 – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail – $16.6M
3. February 14 – Friday the Thirteenth – $14.3M
4. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $13.2M
5. January 10 – Gran Torino – $12.1M
6. January 31 – Taken – $11.65M
7. March 14 - Race To Witch Mountain – $11M (estimated)
8. February 7 – He’s Just Not That Into You – $10.9M
9. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $10M
10. January 17 – Gran Torino – $10M

The last family film that teamed Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Disney was 2007’s The Game Plan. That film opened with $23M and finished with a $90.6M domestic take. That’s a 3.93 multiple ($23M X 3.93 multiple = $90.6M). But, after opening on September 28, 2007, that movie had 5 full weeks without any other significant family films in the market (Bee Movie from Dreamworks was released on November 2). Race To Witch Mountain, however, will face a minor challenger next weekend with Summit’s Knowing, starring Nicolas Cage, and then Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks) will be a box office buzzsaw starting March 27. Because of the competition, the Race is likely to finish with $80M-$85M domestic.

Meanwhile the Saturday-to-Saturday drop for Watchmen (Warner Bros) was less steep than anticipated. On opening weekend, Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s classic graphic novel generated $18.3M on Saturday, and the movie was down 58% to about $7.7M yesterday. The final weekend take will still be a disappointing $18.07M, down 67%, but here’s a positive spin. If the opening weekend Thursday midnight business of $4.5M is deducting from last weekend’s $55.2M haul, the drop is a more respectable 64%.

The movie is being supported now by second-time (and even third-time) ticket purchases by hardcore fanboys, but ultimately, the picture will likely finish in The $100M-$110M range, which is a disappointment. Watchmen is a disaster in international markets, and although it may still break even or reach marginal profitability when ancillary rights are factored in – home video, cable, syndication, video games – it’s hard to imagine any sort of sequel. You could argue that the movie is “sequel-proof” anyway, although a Minutemen prequel would be a possibility.

The Last House On the Left (Rogue) is a strong #3 for the weekend. The R-rated remake of Wes Craven’s 1972 twisted classic played out as horror films tend to do – down 5% from Friday-to-Saturday to about $5.3M. LA Times blogger Patrick Goldstein raises an interesting point, suggesting that Last House may have merited an NC-17 rating instead of an R because of a brutal rape scene. James Berardinelli from Reelviews sums up the way Goldstein feels.

This is an uncompromising film. It is unapologetically violent, to the point where those who are upset by screen brutality will have a tough time sitting through it. It features one of the most upsetting rape scenes committed to film. The MPAA’s decision to award an R to The Last House on the Left is yet another example of how flawed the U.S. classification system is. If anything is deserving of an NC-17 for adults-only content, this is it. The violence is not cartoonish or in any way sanitized; it is grim and gut-wrenching. Nothing is spared. Consider, for example, a scene featuring a hand and an in-sink garbage disposal. There’s no need to use your imagination regarding what happens – the movie shows it in bloody detail.

This is the kind of movie that I just cannot pay to see. I like great horror films like The Shining, Carrie, Rosemary’s Baby, George Romero’s Night of the Living Dead (and Zack Snyder’s more recent remake of Dawn of the Dead), Silence of the Lambs, Scream, The Exorcist and Halloween (the original from John Carpenter). I even appreciate the evil genius of the first Saw movie. But enough is enough. When it comes to brutal rape with my popcorn, I’ll take a pass every time. The movie should wrap up its domestic theatrical engagements with something in the $35M range – hopefully, not enough to encourage more of the same.

Everything else played out about the way I reported in my Friday Early Estimates story.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $25M, $7,844 PTA, $25M cume
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $18.07M, $5,004 PTA, $86M cume
3. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $14.65M, $6,105 PTA, $14.65M cume
4. Taken (Fox) – $6.65M, $2,327 PTA, $126.83M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $5.13M, $2,329 PTA, $83.2M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $5.02M, $1,949 PTA, $132.62M cume
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $3.1M, $1,359 PTA, $137.76M cume
8. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $2.9M, $1,537 PTA, $89M cume
9. Coraline (Focus) – $2.65M, $1,502 PTA, $69.14M cume
10. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $2.35M, $1,349 PTA, $2.35M cume

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Meanwhile last weekend’s winner Watchmen staggered to a second Friday of only $5.4M or so, and I am projecting only $15.75M for the 3-day. That marks a 71% drop. Anything over $20M would have been acceptable, but the bottom has fallen out of this movie, and it will now struggle to reach $100M domestic. When the foreign and DVD are added, it may make a small profit, but it will likely be negligible. The superstitious might suggest that Watchmen writer Alan Moore’s alleged curse may be to blame, but the reality is that word-of-mouth has been more negative than for any movie in recent memory.

For Johnson, Race To Witch Mountain marks his all-time #3 opening and his second-best as a lead (trailing The Scorpion King).

ALL-TIME TOP 5 DWAYNE JOHNSON OPENINGS
- not counting his cameo in The Mummy Returns –
1. Get Smart – $38.6M opening
2. The Scorpion King – $36M opening
3. Race To Witch Mountain – $24.25M opening (projected)
4. Be Cool – $23.4M opening
5. The Game Plan – $22.95M opening

Lenny Montana as Luca Brasi in THE GODFATHER (he sleeps with the fishes)

The movie industry has a great tradition when it comes to professional wrestlers in feature films. Lenny Montana played the small but pivotal role of Luca Brasi in Francis Ford Coppola’s 1972 Best Picture winner The Godfather and Andre the Giant had a memorable turn in the classic The Princess Bride in 1987, but Johnson is easily the most bankable wrestler-turned-actor of all time.

ALL-TIME TOP 30 GROSSING MOVIES THAT FEATURE A PRO WRESTLER
- ranked by total domestic box office -
1. The Mummy Returns – Dwayne Johnson – $68.1M opening – $202M cume
2. The Longest Yard – Steve Austin, Goldberg, Kevin Nash, The Great Khali – $47.6M opening – $158.1M cume
3. X-Men – Tyler Mayne – $54.4M opening – $157.3M cume
4. The Godfather – Lenny Montana – $300K opening – $135M cume
5. Troy – Tyler Mayne – $46.8M opening – $133.4M cume
6. Get Smart – $38.6M opening – Dwayne Johnson – $130.3M cume
7. Rocky III – Hulk Hogan – $12.4M opening – $125M cume
8. The Scorpion King – Dwayne Johnson – $36M opening – $91M cume
9. The Game Plan – $22.95M opening – Dwayne Johnson – $90.6M cume
10. Predator – Jesse Ventura – $12M opening – $59.7M cume
11. Halloween (2007) – Tyler Mayne – $26.3M opening – $58.2M cume
12. Be Cool – $23.4M – Dwayne Johnson – opening – $56M cume
13. Blade: Trinity – Triple H – $16M opening – $52.4M cume
14. The Rundown – Dwayne Johnson – $18.5M opening – $47.7M cume
15. Walking Tall – Dwayne Johnson – $15.5M opening – $46.4M cume
16. Gridiron Gang – Dwayne Johnson – $14.4M opening – $38.4M cume
17. The Running Man – Jesse Ventura – $8.1M opening – $38.1M cume
18. The Punisher – Kevin Nash – $13.8M opening – $33.8M cume
19. The Princess Bride - Andre the Giant – $4.4M opening – $30.8M cume
20. Doom – Dwayne Johnson – $35.5M opening – $28.2M cume
21. Spy Hard – Hulk Hogan – $10.4M opening – $27M cume
22. Grindhouse – Vladimir Kozlov – $11.6M opening – $25M cume
23. The Marine – John Cena – $7.1M opening – $18.8M cume
24. No Holds Barred – Hulk Hogan – $5M opening – $16.1M cume
25. Over the Top – Terry Funk – $5.1M opening – $16M cume
26. See No Evil – Kane – $4.5M opening – $15M cume
27. The Comebacks – Stacey Keibler – $5.5M opening – $13.4M cume
28. They Live – Roddy Piper – $4.8M opening – $13M cume
29. The Condemned – Steve Austin – $3.8M opening – $7.3M cume
30. Ed Wood – George Steele – $1.9M opening – $5.9M cume

Andre the Giant in THE PRINCESS BRIDE

If Witch Mountain plays out like The Rock’s last family movie The Game Plan, the picture could reach $95M in the US.

Wes Craven’s The Last House On the Left (Universal), a remake of his own 1972 seminal classic, has met industry expectations with an opening day of $5.3M or so (actually ahead of Watchmen). The tightly-budgeted, R-rated genre pic will wrap up the weekend at #3 with a likely $14.3M or so.

Luc Besson’s mega-hit Taken (Fox) is headed for a dip of only 17% for an impressive $6.5M, good for fourth-place and a new cume of $126.68M. Tyler Perry’s biggest hit ever, Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate), will round out the weekend top five with about $5M pushing its domestic gross to $83M.

Don't worry if you miss MISS MARCH - It's coming to DVD very soon

The other wide release is Miss March (Fox Searchlight), which had straight-to-video written all over it. The movie managed only $750K from 1,742 playdates Friday, and it will crawl to a meager $2M 3-day, barely cracking the weekend top ten.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $6.8M, $2,134 PTA, $6.8M cume
2. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.5.M, $2,291 PTA, $5.5M cume
3. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $5.4M, $1,495 PTA, $73.33M cume
4. Taken (Fox) – $2M, $700 PTA, $122.18M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $1.45M, $658 PTA, $79.52M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $1.4M, $543 PTA, $129M cume
7. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $900,000, $476 PTA, $87M cume
8. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $890,000, $511 PTA, $890,000 cume
9. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $860,000, $377 PTA, $135.52M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $600,000, $339 PTA, $67.12M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $24.25M, $7,609 PTA, $24.25M cume
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $15.75M, $4,362 PTA, $83.68M cume
3. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $14.3M, $5,956 PTA, $14.3M cume
4. Taken (Fox) – $6.5M, $2,274 PTA, $126.68M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $5M, $2,271 PTA, $83.08M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $4.83M, $1,874 PTA, $132.43M cume
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $3.18M, $1,395PTA, $137.84M cume
8. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $2.88M, $1,524 PTA, $89M cume
9. Coraline (Focus) – $2.5M, $1,408 PTA, $69M cume
10. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $2.4M, $1,379 PTA, $2.4M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.