If I was forced today to guess which 2009 release will win the Academy Award for Best Picture, I would first complain that it’s impossible to guess right. Then I would put my money on Clint Eastwood’s The Human Factor (Warner Bros). In mid-March, it’s silly to start discussing which upcoming movies will be Academy Award contenders, but there are some films, still in production, that seem to have the pedigree to “go all the way.” Eastwood’s next movie as a director, based on John Carlin’s Playing the Enemy: Nelson Mandela & the Game That Changed a Nation, seems like a decent bet.

Academy Award winner Morgan Freeman acquired the film rights to the book, and he will play a post-prison Nelson Mandela with friend Eastwood directing. The Human Factor will tell the story of how the 1995 World Cup Rugby Final between heavily-favored New Zealand and underdog South Africa helped to heal the post-Apartheid racial divide. Matt Damon, sporting blonde hair, has reportedly trained hard in order to credibly play South African captain Francois Pienaar. Some photos have begun to show up from the current production.

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There is a phenomenon known as “the Oscar bounce.” When a movie receives Academy Award nominations, especially one of the five coveted Best Picture slots, ticket-buyers generally follow. The Oscar seal of approval used to mean something to the rank-and-file moviegoer, but that seems to have changed.

Only one of this year’s Best Picture nominees has inspired any real passion from the broad public. The almost-certain Best Picture winner is Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight), and its devotees, including critics and members of the Academy (not to mention yours truly), have made it a word-of-mouth smash hit. The Danny Boyle-directed feel-good Bollywood fusion movie made for a meager $14M added another $2.05M or so on Friday and is charting a 3-day course for about $7.4M. That will give the Slumdog a $77.4M take, and it could reach $90M-$95M before it’s through in American theatres.

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