The box office king....err....queen of Oscar weekend

Although I am not necessarily a fan of Tyler Perry movies, I am a Tyler Perry fan. He traveled the country for years doing live stage shows in order to fine-tune his act, and he identified an under-served audience – African Americans, and more specifically black, Christian women. Now he makes two movies a year, and he has two television series’ on TBS – House of Payne and Meet the Browns. He built a multi-million dollar studio in an under-served area in Atlanta, taking advantage of tax credits for building in a blighted neighborhood. Now he is building a mini-empire. He produces, writes, directs and stars in his projects, and he even helps to finance them.

Perry has proved that it is possible to reach out to an audience that Hollywood has generally ignored. He saw a demographic market, and now he knows how to hit that “sweet spot” over and over again. He is an unabashed capitalist and, although he may never win an Academy Award for this brand of movie, he is selling a lot of movie tickets. Madea Goes To Jail was not screened for critics, and it wouldn’t matter anyway. Here’s TP’s movie resume.

ALL-TIME TYLER PERRY OPENINGS
1. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail – $41.12M opening (studio estimate)
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Family Reunion – $30M opening – $63.25M cume
3. Diary of a Mad Black Woman – $21.9M opening – $50.6M cume
4. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married – $21.3M opening – $55.2M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns – $20.1M opening – $42M cume
6. Tyler Perry’s The Family That Preys – $17.3M opening – $37.1M cume
7. Tyler Perry’s Daddy’s Little Girls – $11.2M opening – $31.3M cume

As I was discussing the numbers with studio execs today, everyone was amazed. This is about Perry’s unique voice, but there’s something else happening. The first two months of 2009 have been filled with movies that have beaten industry expectations. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) with $31.8M in its first 3 days and almost $120M by Monday? Notorious (Fox Searchlight) comes out of nowhere to grab $23.4M over MLK weekend? A micro-budgeted French import like Taken (Fox) will pass $100M in the US? Clint Eastwood delivers his biggest wide opening weekend and top-grossing picture of his career with Gran Torino (Warner Bros)? The reboot of Friday The Thirteenth (Warner Bros) scares up an amazing $43.5M 4-day start? The movie business is incredibly healthy despite an uncertain economy. I continue to believe that Hollywood is recession-proof.

Even the bad movies are doing better-than-expected. For example, Sony’s low budget teen comedy Fired Up is a throw-away this weekend, and most of my regular sources had it opening in the $4M-$5M range. Instead, it grabbed a decent $2.3M on its opening day, and Sony says it reached $6M. It will likely finish ninth for the 3-day, but that’s so much better than it could have been.

Luc Besson’s Taken was second for the day at $3.43M, and will finish #32 for the weekend as well with about $11.4M according to Fox. That will give this Pierre Morel-directed action flick a head-turning $95.15M, and it should pass $100M this week.

The $60M Coraline (Focus), the spectacular 3-D film from Henry Selick, will wrap up the weekend at #3 with about $11M, down just 25%, after a $2.8M Friday (fourth for the day). This movie will have banked $53.4M by Monday, and, if you haven’t seen it yet, do yourself a favor and experience just how far 3-D has evolved from those cardboard glasses with the red and blue lenses.

The Flower Films rom-com He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) seems likely has nosed out the fast-fading Friday The Thirteenth for fourth-place. Based on the Greg Behrendt-Liz Tuccillo self-help book, the Ken Kwapis-directed chick-flick managed another $3M on Friday (#3 for the day), which has translated to $8.54M for the 3-day.

Friday The Thirteenth is drowning, and there's nothing Jason can do about it

Meanwhile, movie-goers showed up at Crystal Lake last weekend, but America’s teens have quickly lost interest. Friday The Thirteenth from director Marcus Nispel and Michael Bay’s Platinum Dunes fell to only about $2.8M in second Friday sales (the movie stunned with over $19M last Friday), and Jason has limped to just $7.82M. That is a drop of almost 81%, one of the ten biggest weekend-over-weekend tumbles in modern box office history.

Finally, Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight), which will almost certainly win the Academy Award for Best Picture on tonight, added 600 or so playdates Friday, and it picked up another $2.1M or so to start the weekend. Searchlight has handled this film perfectly, and it will finish the weekend with about $8M, which would put its domestic cume at about $98M when it collects Hollywood’s biggest prize. It will probably surpass $100M in the US as soon as Monday as it rides an Oscar wave.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $14.65M, $7,210 PTA, $14.65M cume
2. Taken (Fox) – $3.43M, $1,106 PTA, $87.18M cume
3. He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $3M, $984 PTA, $64.54M cume
4. Coraline (Focus) – $2.8M, $1,299 PTA, $45.13M cume
5. Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) – $2.75M, $1,299 PTA, $49.97M cume
6. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $2.4M, $957 PTA, $23M cume
7. NEW – Fired Up (Sony) – $2.3M, $1,271 PTA, $2.3M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.1M, $936 PTA, $92.06M cume
9. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $1.54M, $545 PTA, $115.92M cume
10. The International (Sony) – $1.42M, $604 PTA, $14M cume
11. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) – $1.1M, $414 PTA, $26.77M cume
12. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $1M, $493 PTA, $131.79M cume

STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $41.12M, $20,236 PTA, $41.12M cume
2. Taken (Fox) – $11.4M, $3,675 PTA, $95.15M cume
3. Coraline (Focus) – $11.03M, $5,119 PTA, $53.39M cume
4. He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $8.54M, $2,800 PTA, $70.08M cume
5. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $8.05M, $3,587 PTA, $98.02M cume
6. Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) – $7.82M, $2,520 PTA, $55M cume
7. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $7.01M, $2,800 PTA, $27.65M cume
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $7M, $2,469 PTA, $121.38M cume
9. NEW – Fired Up (Sony) – $6M, $3,315 PTA, $6M cume
10. The International (Sony) – $4.45M, $1,882 PTA, $17M cume
11. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) – $3.7M, $1,392 PTA, $29.37M cume
12. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $3.64M, $1,793 PTA, $134.43M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

TOP GROSSING PRESIDENT’S WEEKENDS FOR HOLLYWOOD
- combined gross of top 12 films -
1. 2009 – $201.5M (estimated)
2. 2007 – $167.8M
3. 2008 – $141.1M
4. 2003 – $141M
5. 2005 – $137.1M

Director Marcus Nispel (2003’s Texas Chainsaw Massacre remake) and the Platinum Dunes production company have gotten the all-new Friday the Thirteenth off to a spectacular $19.3M opening day. That could translate to a well-above-expectations $47M by Tuesday morning. The new Jason restart quickly follows the Platinum Dunes success of The Unborn, released on January 9 to a $19.8M 3-day take. That David D. Goyer written and directed genre pic was made for just $16M, and The Unborn has generated an estimated $42M in the US.

One of the original 1980 posters for FRIDAY THE THIRTEENTH

Friday the Thirteenth will finish the 4-day as the #2 best grossing President’s Day weekend title trailing only 2007’s Ghost Rider.

ALL-TIME 4-DAY PRESIDENT’S DAY OPENINGS
1. Ghost Rider – $52M opening
2. Friday the Thirteenth – $47M opening (projected)
3. 50 First Dates – $45.1M opening
4. Daredevil - $45M opening
5. Constantine – $33.6M opening
6. Jumper – $32.1M opening
7. Bridge to Terabithia – $28.5M opening
8. Eight Below – $25M opening
9. The Spiderwick Chronicles – $24.7M opening
10. John Q – $23.6M opening

TRANSFORMERS director Michael Bay is the founder of Platinum Dunes

Platinum Dunes, headed by Tranformers director Michael Bay, has now added the successful Friday the Thirteenth franchise to its string of low budget horror pics, which includes the remake of The Texas Chainsaw Massacre ($28M opening – $80.5M cume), the remake of The Amityville Horror ($23.5M opening – $65.2M cume), Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning ($18.5M opening – $39.5M cume), the remake of The Hitcher ($7.8M opening – $16.4M cume) and the aforementioned The Unborn. The new Crystal Lake saga is, of course, heavily front-loaded, and its box office legs will be short (chopped off?), but Warner Bros can still safely expect a US domestic gross of something in the $80M-$85M range and at least a couple of cheaply-made sequels to follow.

Holdover He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) is a strong #2 with a $5.05M second Friday and a possible $23.9M 4-day for a new 11-day cume of about $59.36M. Meanwhile, the French import Taken (Fox), from action maestro Luc Besson and cracker jack director Pierre Morel is continuing its amazing run, scoring $4.8M to start the frame and a shot at adding $23.8M by Tuesday. The Liam Neeson action flick’s new cume will be over $82M, surpassing the $69M it has accumulated in foreign territories (the movie was released in most international markets before it ever played here in the US).

Isla Fisher stars in CONFESSIONS OF A SHOPAHOLIC

Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney), based on Sophie Kinsella’s bestselling novels and starring Isla Fisher, is performing very well, but slightly below expectations. The female-skewing comedy is tilting to the Under 25 crowd while managing a solid $4.4M on opening day, which could translate to $19.25M for the long weekend.

Rounding out the top 5 is Henry Selick’s Coraline (Focus) scaring up another $3.14M to start the weekend and riding huge matinees Saturday, Sunday and Monday to a projected $19.1M for 4 days. With a new cume of almost $40M by Tuesday, it appears that the $60M film has a chance to be profitable.

The message from Tom Tywker’s The International (Sony), seems perfectly-timed for our current world economy. Simplified, bankers are evil. If the theme doesn’t work now, when will it work?

Tywker is responsible for one of the most innovative action movies of all time, Run Lola Run, and critics seem to appreciate his chase sequences in The International, starring Oscar nominees Clive Owen (Closer) and Naomi Watts (21 Grams), but the movie’s opening weekend performance will be no better than respectable with $3M on Friday and a possible $12.3M for 4 days.

In other box office news, here’s something I never thought I would see in print. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) passed $100M domestic on Friday.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) – $19.3M, $6,232 PTA, $19.3M cume
2. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $5.05M, $1,591 PTA, $40.51M cume
3. Taken (Fox) – $4.8M, $1,544 PTA, $63.47M cume
4. NEW – Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $4.4M, $1,755 PTA, $4.4M cume
5. Coraline (Focus) – $3.1M, $1,336 PTA, $23.33M cume
6. NEW – The International (Sony) – $3M, $1,279 PTA, $3M cume
7. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) – $2.2M, $678 PTA, $15.52M cume
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $1.85M, $624 PTA, $100.66M cume
9. Push (Summit) – $1.75M, $757 PTA, $14.14M cume
10. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $1.36M, $833 PTA, $80.75M cume
11. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $1.34M, $584 PTA, $123.48M cume
12. The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.1M, $610 PTA, $20.46M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) – $47M, $16,137 PTA, $47M cume
2. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $23.9M, $7,528 PTA, $59.36M cume
3. Taken (Fox) – $23.8M, $7,655 PTA, $82.47M cume
4. NEW – Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $19.25M, $7,679 PTA, $19.25M cume
5. Coraline (Focus) – $19.1M, $8,233 PTA, $39.33M cume
6. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $14M, $4,722 PTA, $112.8M cume
7. NEW – The International (Sony) – $12.3M, $5,243 PTA, $12.3M cume
8. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) – $10.75M, $3,313 PTA, $24.07M cume
9. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $8.75M, $5,355 PTA, $85.14M cume
10. Push (Summit) – $8.5M, $3,675 PTA, $20.89M cume
11. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $8.15M, $3,539 PTA, $130.23M cume
12. The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $6M, $3,328 PTA, $25.36M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The new movie developed by New Line and now released by Warner Bros is based on the book of the same name co-written by former Sex & the City scribes Greg Behrendt and Liz Tucillo. The line itself has come to be a reassuring fallback for women in the dating scene (and I’m guessing single guys have adopted the mentality as well in the rough-and-tumble world of dating).

Produced by Flower Films, founded by Barrymore and Nancy Juvonen (wife to soon-to-be late night TV host Jimmy Fallon), Not That Into You features a blockbuster cast, including Oscar winner Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind), Ben Affleck (Hollywoodland), Kevin Connolly (from HBO’s Entourage), Justin Long (the Mac guy from the Apple vs. PC commercials), Bradley Cooper (Wedding Crashers), Scarlett Johansson (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) and Barrymore herself. But the star who seems to add the most sizzle to the project is the one who’s literally “lived” the catch-phrase.

Emmy winner Jennifer Aniston, who reached super-stardom as Rachel on NBC’s mega-hit Friends, has been almost constant tabloid fodder since she fell into the arms of Brad Pitt. Among Hollywood’s most bankable big screen actors, the marriage seemed to elevate her to show biz royalty – until she found out that Brad was “just not that into” her.

Aniston turns 40 on Wednesday, but she made an appearance on Ellen and talked about the milestone, “I found a really long gray hair, and it kind of flipped me out. It’s not my first, but it’s the fact that it was so long. I was like, ‘Oh that’s been there. How many others are there, and what does that mean? It actually brought me to tears, slightly.” Gray hair or not, she continues to have an “on-again-off-again” romance with Grammy winning pop star John Mayer, who is about nine years her junior.

Since her divorce from Pitt, the almost-40 actress has proved to be formidable at the box office.

JENNIFER ANISTON’S LAST FIVE MOVIES
Rumor Has It – $7.5M opening (first full weekend) – $43M cume
Friends with Money – $3.2M (wide break) – $13.3M cume
The Break-Up – $39.1M opening – $118.7M cume
Marley & Me – $36.3M opening – $140M (to-date – likely to reach $145M)
He’s Just Not That Into You – $27.4M opening (projected) – $90M cume (projected)
AVERAGE OPENING WEEKEND- $23M
AVERAGE DOMESTIC GROSS – $82M

BRAD PITT’S LAST FIVE MOVIES
Babel – $5.5M opening (wide break) – $34.3M cume
Ocean’s Thirteen – $36.1M opening – $117.1M cume
The Assassination of Jesse James – $532K opening (widest weekend) – $3.9M cume
Burn After Reading – $19.1M opening – $60.3M cume
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – $26.8M opening – $117.6M (to-date likely to reach $126M)
AVERAGE OPENING WEEKEND – $17.6M
AVERAGE DOMESTIC GROSS – $68.3M

There’s a bit of an apples-to-oranges problem when comparing these resumes, and Brad certainly has more acclaim with Golden Globe nominations for Babel and Burn After Reading and Oscar and Golden Globe nominations for Benjamin Button, but Jen is no slouch when it comes to selling tickets. She will next be seen starring alongside The Dark Knight’s Aaron Eckhart in Universal’s Traveling due later in the year.

Checking in at #2 is the excellent Luc Besson-produced and Pierre Morel-directed action flick Taken, starring Liam Neeson. The tale of the world’s most “kick-ass” Dad trying to rescue his daughter seized another $6.3M on its second Friday and that should translate to an outstanding $20.3M for a new 10-day cume of $53.36M. That represents a spectacular hold with just an 18% dip from opening weekend.

The surprise third-place finisher is Henry Selick’s Coraline (Focus), based on Neil Gaiman’s Hugo Award winning novel. Riding a tidal wave of positive reviews (88% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and featuring state-of-the-art 3-D technology, the stop-action animated film has generated $4.5M in opening day sales, and studio estimates put it at $16.33M for the frame. That is well above the number that pre-release tracking suggested.

The film was made for a relatively hefty $60M, and the languid pace of digital conversion at America’s multiplexes means that there are only about 900 screens showing Coraline in 3-D with the other 1,400 or so in traditional 2-D presentation. Given the movie’s dark tone and the limited availability of 3-D, Focus will be thrilled with a $16M start.

The major disappointment of the 3-day is Pink Panther 2 (Sony). The reviews have been horrific (14% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), and Steve Martin must realize that, although he may be cashing a big paycheck, the brilliant Peter Sellers is almost certainly “spinning in his grave.” After a $20.2M opening for the original sub-par remake in 2006, Pink Panther 2 appears to be a dud with a meager $3.4M Friday. The picture is skewing young and got a decent Saturday and Sunday matinee bounce, but the sequel’s opening frame will be about $11M, down a full 45% from Martin’s last go-round as Inspector Clouseau.

The other new wide release is Push (Summit Entertainment), which is in the mold of NBC’s Heroes and the X-Men franchise. Reviews are pretty awful (27% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and the box office performance equally disappointing. The picture delivered only $3.5M or so on Friday (#5 for the day), and it will stumble to a soft $10.2M according to Summit, #6 for the weekend behind Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony). The under-estimated Kevin James comedy meanwhile, will add another $11M or so over the 3-day for a new cume of $97M.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $10.5M, $3,307 PTA, $10.5M cume
2. Taken (Fox) – $6.3M, $1,979 PTA, $39.36M cume
3. NEW – Coraline (Focus) – $4.5M, $1,958 PTA, $4.5M cume
4. NEW – Push (Summit) – $3.5M, $1,513 PTA, $3.5M cume
5. NEW – Pink Panther 2 (Sony) – $3.4M, $1,513 PTA, $3.4M cume
6. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $2.7M, $852 PTA, $88.7M cume
7. The Uninvited (Paramount) – $2.1M, $896 PTA, $14.07M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.05M, $1,189 PTA, $72.07M cume
9. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $2M, $739 PTA, $1156.03M cume
10. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) – $1.15M, $563 PTA, $36.9M cume
10. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.1M, $402 PTA, $50.5M cume
12. New in Town (Lionsgate) – $1.05M, $541 PTA, $9.67M cume

STUDIO ESTIMATES FOR FEBRUARY 6-8
1. NEW – He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $27.46M, $8,650 PTA, $27.46M cume
2. Taken (Fox) – $20.3M, $6,376 PTA, $53.36M cume
3. NEW – Coraline (Focus) – $16.33M, $7,105 PTA, $16.33M cume
4. NEW – Pink Panther 2 (Sony) – $12M, $3,700 PTA, $12M cume
5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $11M, $3,471 PTA, $97M cume
6. NEW – Push (Summit) – $10.2M, $4,412 PTA, $10.2M cume
7. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $7.42M, $2,743 PTA, $120.28M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $7.4M, $4,292 PTA, $77.42M cume
9. The Uninvited (Paramount) – $6.4M, $2,730 PTA, $18.37M cume
10. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.82M, $2,129 PTA, $55.23M cume
11. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) – $3.9M, $1,910 PTA, $39.65M cume
12. New in Town (Lionsgate) – $3.3M, $1,700 PTA, $11.92M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Investor Warren Buffet coined the phrase “skin in the game” to describe a situation where executives use their own money to buy shares in their company. The so-called Oracle of Omaha likes companies where insiders have their own money invested because they work harder, care more and generally are more emotionally invested.

The problem with the Oscars is that voters are nominating films that relatively few people have seen. The five movies nominated for Best Picture this week – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, The Reader and Frost/Nixon – have combined to gross just $186.7M. The Dark Knight passed that box office total early in its fifth day of release.

TO-DATE BOX OFFICE FOR 2009 BEST PICTURE NOMINEES
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – $104.3M
Slumdog Millionaire – $44.7M
Milk – $20.6M
Frost/Nixon – $8.9M
The Reader – $8M

How many average moviegoers and potential Oscar viewers have “skin in the game?” Based on the current average US ticket price ($7.15), only about 26 million Americans have seen Hollywood’s big five so far.

Yes, I think The Dark Knight should be a Best Picture nominee. It is absolutely one of my five favorite movies of 2008, and I believe it to be a masterpiece. Artistic excellence and blockbuster status are not mutually exclusive. I believe that one of the reasons Christopher Nolan’s comic book sequel soared past $500M US is that it struck a very real cultural chord with audiences.

There was talk that this comic book adaptation was too dark, but it is actually a relentlessly optimistic movie. What Heath Ledger’s Joker character demonstrates is that, even when the world is in shambles and people are faced with impossibly difficult choices, they do the right thing. The message of TDK is that regular people, at their core, are good. We need more movies like that right now.

I also believe that Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino, although not a perfect movie, should not have been snubbed entirely. No Best Actor for Eastwood’s turn as the irascible Walt Kowalski, and not even a Best Original Song nomination for co-writing the heartfelt theme song with his son Kyle and jazz vocalist Jamie Cullum. Gran Torino, by the way, with a to-date cume of $79.8M, has grossed more than all of the Best Picture nominees except Benjamin Button.

Other snubs that will depress the viewing audience include Best Original Song contenders, Bruce Springsteen (The Wrestler), Miley Cyrus (Bolt), Beyonce (Cadillac Records) and Alicia Keyes (Quantum of Solace). I have yet to get a good answer about why the Academy narrowed the category to just three nominees. If Bruce Springsteen is big enough for the halftime show at Super Bowl 43, he must be big enough for Hollywood’s biggest night, and if there were the usual five nominations here, Springsteen would have certainly been among them.

A disastrously low 31.76M viewers watched last year’s Oscar show for an all-time worst 18.6 Nielsen rating. Last year’s Best Picture nominees combined to gross $357.9M. This year, the five nominees will be lucky to combine for more than $300M domestic. How much lower can the TV ratings get?

There is a growing divide between what Academy voters view as film excellence and what audiences actually want to see. That’s not to say that all Best Picture nominees should be blockbusters, but they should include some true, crowd-pleasing hits. If you look at this list, it’s pretty clear where the Oscars came off the rails.

1993
Best Picture – Schindler’s List – $96M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $368.4M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 46.2M

1994
Best Picture – Forrest Gump – $329.7M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $543.5M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 46.26M

1995
Best Picture – Braveheart – $75.6M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $378.1M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 44.5M

1996
Best Picture – The English Patient – $78.6M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $306.5M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 40.8M

1997
Best Picture – Titanic – $600.8M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $998.2M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 57.2M

1998
Best Picture – Shakespeare in Love - $100.3M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $440.9M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 45.6M

1999
Best Picture – American Beauty – $130M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $647M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 46.5M

2000
Best Picture – Gladiator – $187.7M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $637M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 42.9M

2001
Best Picture – A Beautiful Mind – $170.7M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $620.1M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 40.5M

2002
Best Picture – Chicago – $170.6M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $664.5M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 33M

2003
Best Picture – Lord of the Rings: Return of the King – $377M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $725.9M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 43.5M

2004
Best Picture – Million Dollar Baby – $100.5M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $401.6M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 42.1M

2005
Best Picture – Crash – $54.5M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $245.3M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 38.9M

2006
Best Picture – The Departed – $132.3M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $296.7M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 39.9M

2007
Best Picture – No Country For Old Men – $74.2M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $357.9M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 31.7M

In 1997, there were three $100M grossing movies including Titanic ($600.7M cume). Over the next seven awards cycles, there were at least two $100M grossers in each Best Picture field, and in 2000 there were four hits of that magnitude.

Then came 2005, when the five Best Picture nominees combined to gross just $245M.

BOX OFFICE FOR 2005 BEST PICTURE NOMINEES
Crash – $54.5M
Brokeback Mountain – $83M
Capote – $28.75M
Good Night and Good Luck – $31.5M
Munich – $47.4M

The disconnect between the Oscars and rank-and-file movie fans started in 2005. This is where the Academy Awards “came off the rails.” Only 38.9M viewers watched that telecast, and the Academy has continued marching to the beat of that noncommercial drummer ever since. In the final analysis, 17 of the last 20 Best Picture nominees (including the just announced group) have failed to break the $100M threshold. Unless the Academy figures out a way to give more rank-and-file moviegoers “skin in the game,” the ratings slide will continue. My hunch is that the 2009 Oscar telecast will be the lowest rated in history.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.