The precise number of 3-D screens is difficult to pinpoint. Last month, Lionsgate confirmed 1,033 Digital 3-D runs for the remake of My Bloody Valentine, and although I have not been able to confirm a hard number for Coraline (Focus), it was probably close to 1,100. Now, as the expensive $100K per screen digital conversion creeps along for exhibitors, Jonas Brothers could reach 1,200 3-D screens. Unlike Coraline, the new Disney concert movie will not be boosted by traditional 2-D 35MM playdates.

The Jonas Brothers along with Mom, Dad and baby brother Frank (sometimes called "the Bonus Jonas")

They have sold millions of records, packed them in at concerts across America, have a loyal fan base of screaming teenage girls, and they seem to be good kids. Their Dad is a former Assembly of God minister, and they were home-schooled by their folks. Famously, they wear purity rings, promising to remain virgins until they get married. When asked about the rings, 18-year-old Joe Jonas told Newsweek, “Our parents asked if we wanted to, and we were, like, ‘Yeah,’ so it’s awesome.”

As good practicing Evangelical Christian, these kids are tithing too. Jonas Brothers earned $12M in 2007, and they donated 10% to their Change for the Children Foundation, which offers support to other charities like St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital and the American Diabetes Association (Nick Jonas was diagnosed with Type 1 Diabetes in November of 2005).

Tracking shows that the audience for Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience will be almost exclusively Females Under 25 and their Moms, and this picture has a strong shot at a spectacular $25K per screen for a $30M opening weekend. Take that with a grain of salt because movie-after-movie has out-performed expectations this year.

Last week’s #1 movie Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) is in for a 60% drop from its meteoric start. The latest from Tyler Perry Studios will possibly add another $16.2M for a second place finish. Academy Award winner Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) will sing Jai Ho as it pops to third place, up as much as 14% from Oscar weekend. The target for Danny Boyle’s gutty, little Best Picture winner is $9.5M, which would push the $14M movie to almost $113M in the US.

Luc Besson’s Taken (Fox) will crash through the $100M barrier on Friday and seems destined for #4 with about $7.25M, which would push this French action import to $105M domestic to go along with the $70M achieved in foreign markets. Meanwhile, the Jonas Brothers have stolen virtually all of the 3-D screens from Coraline (Focus). Henry Selick’s spectacular stop-action animation instant classic will tumble a possible 50% to about $6M (a far cry from the more friendly 12% and 22% drops from the last two weekends). Still if my number hits, Coraline will have a new domestic cume of almost $62M compared to its budget of $60M.
The other new wide release is Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li, which Fox has pared down to about 1,000 playdates, is a non-starter. According to pre-release industry tracking the video game adaptation seems headed for a sub-$5M start.

FINAL PREDICTED GROSSES FOR FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 1
1. NEW – Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience (Disney) – $30M
2. Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $16.2M
3. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $9.5M
4. Taken (Fox) -$7.25M
5. Coraline (Focus) – $6M
6. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $5.1M
7. Friday The Thirteenth (Warner Bros) – $4.35M
8. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $4.3M
9. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $4.2M
10. NEW – Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li (Fox) – $4M
11. Fired Up (Sony) – $2.8M
12. The International (Sony) – $2.75M

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The film opened at #3 for February 6-8 with a better-than-expected $16.8M start. Then, the film enjoyed a nice surge over the 4-day President’s Day weekend period ringing up another $18.8M in sales. Then, Coraline dipped a mere 23% over Oscar weekend finishing second overall with an excellent $11.28M for a new cume of $53.7M.

That should set up Coraline for another good solid couple of weekends, right? Wrong.

Henry Selick has created a movie that is a “native” 3-D experience. This is the first time that I have forgotten about the glasses and become immersed in a truly 3-D world. This utilizes the state-of-the-art technology not as a gimmick, but as a storytelling tool. There is just no way that Coraline in 2-D can possibly compare.

That’s where the Jonas Brothers come in. Disney’s Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience will roll out on almost every 3-D capable screen in America this Friday, and it will push Coraline to 35MM 2-D at most of its existing playdates. Focus will miss out on those 3-D upcharges (most exhibitors are charging a premium price for 3-D presentation), and the momentum that Coraline has been building will be lost as it shifts to traditional presentation almost everywhere.

In order to show a movie in 3-D, a theatre must first upgrade from traditional 35MM to Digital Presentation, then add the relatively inexpensive Real-D 3-D component. Because the cost of digital conversion is about $100,000 per screen, the continuing credit crunch has slowed the digital rollout to a near-standstill at America’s multiplexes. In most competitive zones, there is only one theatre offering Digital 3-D, and so when a new 3-D movie is released the current 3-D movie will get pushed to 2-D regardless of how the first movie is performing. In this case, the Jonas Brothers will be pushing the #2 movie in America to 35MM virtually from coast-to-coast.

Later in the week, I’ll have final predictions for Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience and Coraline, but as of now, I’m guessing that Selick’s remarkable piece of work could drop as much as 50% in the upcoming weekend to something in the $6M range. If Kevin, Joe and Nick weren’t landing Friday, there’s no telling how much stronger little blue-haired Coraline could have performed.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.