***

There has been some speculation over the last 24 hours that Andrew Breitbart will be making an appearance as himself in Aaron Sorkin’s upcoming HBO project “More As This Story Develops,” and that is indeed the case.  “More,” which will star Jeff Daniels, is a dramatic pilot based on the world of cable news.  Originally, Breitbart was to be in a debate scene opposite MSNBC anchor Chris Matthew, but MSNBC has squelched Matthew’s participation.  New York Magazine reports (emphasis mine):

Vulture hears that plans for Matthews to shoot a roundtable debate scene in Develops alongside conservative muckracker/ Weiner-eater Andrew Breitbart have had to be scrapped because, according to a production insider, Matthews’s bosses at MSNBC nixed the idea.

It’s not like MSNBC has a blanket no-scripted-programming order for their anchors: Matthews played an MSNBC reporter two years ago in the Russell Crowe pic State of Play. And a guest spot on Sorkin’s show would likely be good for publicity; assuming it goes to series, Develops will likely boast an audience filled with the sort of left-leaning smarties targeted by the news-and-opinion network. So what was the problem? Our spy speculates that even though Sorkin’s ideology meshes with MSNBC’s, the network’s brass may have taken issue with the way More portrays the world of cable news and its corporate culture.[...]  (UPDATE: Our source has further elaborated to us that MSNBC also didn’t like the fact that parts of the show seemed to be skewering left-leaning media.)

NY Mag describes the lead character, an anchor to be played by Daniels, as “a passionate, liberal Keith Olbermann–esque character.”

Sorkin won an Academy Award for the Social Network last year.

More as this story develops….

Directed by the very gifted Sam Mendes, (American Beauty and Road to Perdition are two personal favorites) “Away We Go” obviously wasn’t designed to portray our friends on the left as utterly dysfunctional and clueless, but never will you see a more unsympathetic bunch of self-involved, navel gazers. And not just the supporting characters, some of whom are supposed to be unlikable (I think), but also the leads, Burt (John Krasinski) and Verona (Maya Rudolph), two self-proclaimed 34 year-old, unmarried “fuck ups” who discover they’re about to have a baby. In their defense, they are a committed couple (he wants marriage, she refuses), so committed that when she laments the coming weight gain, he reassures, “I will love you even if I can’t find your vagina.”

Verona’s a medical artist of some sort and Burt sells insurance over the phone, verbally morphing into one of those, “How ‘bout those Bruins?” Regular Guys to win over clients (which drives Verona crazy). Both look and dress like they stepped out of 1974 and live in a ramshackle house with an electrical system unable to handle a space heater. They live there for no other reason than to be close to Burt’s parents, a self-absorbed, well-to-do couple played by Jeff Daniels and Catherine O’Hara. They’re the type who believe the meaningless act of spending thousands of dollars on statues “to honor Native Americans” somehow makes up for the selfish bastards they really are. Everything is always about them and in pursuit of what they want both are more than willing to hurt their own son through the death of a thousand slights. Instead of being grandparents, they will be moving to Belgium.

Wanting to raise their child and plant roots near someone, anyone, Burt and Verona hit the road on a cross-country planes, trains, and automobile odyssey hoping to find a new home through a reconnection with friends and loved ones. Phoenix is stop number one, home to Verona’s former boss Lily (Allison Janey) and her sad, odd, dysfunctional family. Lily’s gift is living in the belief no one can hear her talk, even though they can. She goes on and on about her boobs and laughs over how her (within earshot) daughter might be a “dyke.” Not surprisingly, Burt and Verona press on.

Next stop Madison, Wisconsin, where Maggie Gyllenhaal plays Burt’s childhood friend, LN (pronounced “Ellen”). She teaches at the university, breast feeds her four-year old son and lives in a hippie pagan heaven where everyone shares a “family bed” because it’s good for the kids to watch mommy and daddy make love. In the film’s best moment, Burt and Verona finally show some sand, hilariously rebelling against this diseased, oppressive environment.

There are a few more stops but you get the picture. With an intentionally quirky soundtrack and irreverent tone, “Away We Go” feels more Wes Anderson than Sam Mendes. The pace is smooth, the scenery’s nice and my curiosity over where Burt and Verona would finally end up never waned. Sure, I liked them well enough, but could never respect them.

Other than Gyllenhaal’s LN, who should be jailed for raising likely serial killers, the characters are each rewarded with youth, health, children, employment, and an upper middle-class lifestyle, and while some have seen emotionally difficult times (miscarriage, divorce), all seem the type to forever focus on what they want, what they don’t have and the way things should be, instead of the many, many blessings within reach. We all want things better, we all lug a bag of regrets and hurts and desires around, but these are people who can’t be happy with almost everything, which means they’ll never be happy, and that’s hard to sympathize with and relate to. 

For that reason, the script, written by Dave Eggers and Vendela Vida, is nowhere near as profound as it thinks it is. At heart, the story’s meaningless and the themes as shallow as a parking lot rain puddle. Burt loves Verona, Verona loves Burt, they live in America, are going to have a a baby and make enough money doing very little work to afford a cross-country journey of self-discovery. Yeah, his parents are selfish pleasure seekers and hers are dead, but everyone plays a little hurt and no one respects those who endlessly go on about it. ”Entitlement” simply isn’t a theme.

That doesn’t mean the pointless journey of two 34 year-old “fuck ups” is an unpleasant one, but I just found myself laughing ”at” them and theirs more than I was probably supposed to. Though I shouldn’t have. After all, we all have liberal friends and family members we love and respect, and this kind of stereotyping is completely uncalled for … though not unamusing.

Tonight, 8:00 PM Pacific Time, Telecast on CBS.

It’s often said during Oscar season that there are two sets of predictions:  Who WILL win, and who SHOULD win.  It’s the same with Broadway’s Tony Awards but I often like to add a third prediction:  What would be the best for business.  Believe it or not, often times the Tony Awards seem to take into account the shows that “need” the award for marketing purposes.  Even though one show stands out and seems to be the obvious choice to win the top prize, a surprise occurs and a David beats a Goliath thus ensuring a longer run for David.  I will list a few examples for Best Musical travesties from the past that many might quarrel with in terms of the validity of the show that won, but the commercial outcome of the shows involved can’t be argued.  You have a right to your own opinion, but not to your own facts.

1991: “Miss Saigon” has a multi-million-dollar advance, leads nominations with 11, wins Best Actor and Best Actress.  Best Musical that year?  “The Will Rogers Follies.”  Without the award, “Will Rogers” would have not made it another six months. After winning the prize, it ran for two more years, had a successful tour and might still be running in Branson, MO.  “Saigon” ran for a decade.

Good musical? Sure. But, BEST Musical?

1994: Disney’s “Beauty and the Beast” opens with an enormous advance sale and enormous hype due to Disney’s first foray on Broadway.  They receive 9 nominations and win only one award, for Best Costume Design.  That year’s Best Musical:  Stephen Sondheim’s “Passion.” “Passion” closes six months later and gets the dubious distinction of being the shortest running show ever to be named Best Musical, but without the award, it would have closed in a month.  “Beauty” ran over 5,000 performances.

2004: “Wicked” is a mega-hit and gets 10 nominations.  Best Musical?  “Avenue Q”, the R-rated spoof of “Sesame Street” that continues to run because of the Best Musical Prize.  “Wicked” also runs and continues to break Broadway Gross Sales records despite not winning the Best Musical award.

So, it is often the case that there are two strong contenders for the Best Musical award.  Show A is a very popular show doing great business, but many voters in the industry rationalize that Show A “doesn’t NEED the award.” Meanwhile, Show B is just getting by and with the added benefit of winning Best Musical the show will run another year and launch a national tour.

With that in mind, I humbly submit my predictions of who WILL win, who SHOULD win, and which win would be best for business:

The star-studded cast of "God of Carnage"

Best Play

Dividing the Estate by Horton Foote
God of Carnage by Yasmina Reza
reasons to be pretty by Neil LaBute
33 Variations by Moisés Kaufman

“God of Carnage” WILL win, and SHOULD win, but with its star-studded cast already committed to an extension through November, it doesn’t NEED to win.  If “reasons to be pretty” won it would give it the box office boost to keep running through the holidays or longer.

–

"Billy Elliot, the musical"

Best Musical:

Billy Elliot, The Musical
Next to Normal
Rock of Ages
Shrek the Musical

“Billy Elliot” is this year’s behemoth. It is HUGELY popular and the clear favorite. Not only is it doing great business and is wildly entertaining, but it has a huge “X factor” going for it that always helps a show win a Tony Award: It has gay themes. Any musical that focuses on gay issues and has a storyline about characters who strive for acceptance in a stereotypical conservative community always wins … always.  So, it WILL win, and probably SHOULD win (although my heart belongs to Alice Ripley and “Next to Normal”). But, little Billy doesn’t NEED to win the award for sales. If you want to judge this purely on the most money that stands to be made on winning this award, put your money on the big green guy. It would be a HUGE upset, but so was “Avenue Q” over “Wicked.” Maybe this time the green make-up lobby will win out!

–

"Joe Turner's Come and Gone"

Best Revival of a Play:

Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Mary Stuart
The Norman Conquests
Waiting for Godot

August Wilson died a few years ago… They named a theatre after him…  President Obama just went on a very expensive date to see it… “Joe Turner” WILL win. “Mary Stuart” SHOULD win, it is theatre at its finest. And seeing as how “Godot” is doing great business, “Joe” will win and get a great turnaround in sales.

–

The Jets in "West Side Story"

Best Revival of a Musical:

Guys and Dolls
Hair
Pal Joey
West Side Story

“Hair” WILL win for a lot of reasons. Mostly because it is positioned perfectly for the Tony voters’ sensibilities. They all LIVED the “Hair” life in one way or another and pretend to still be edgy Bohemians trying to shock mainstream America. That’s why they loved “Rent” so much… “Rent” was just “Hair” with HIV. “West Side Story” SHOULD win because.. well… IT’S “WEST SIDE STORY”!!!! Best win for business: “Guys and Dolls.”

–

Will Ferrell in "You're Welcome America: A Final Night With George W. Bush"

Tony Award for Best Special Theatrical Event:

Liza’s at The Palace…!
Slava’s Snowshow
Soul of Shaolin
You’re Welcome America – A Final Night with George W. Bush

Liza’s triumphant turn at the Palace (the same house which hosted her mother’s legendary concerts in 1968) SHOULD be acknowledged and awarded, but I doubt the voters can resist the opportunity to reward Will Ferrell for his hugely successful Bush-bash. Actually, giving Ferrell the Tony would be the best for business and sales, as well, because it would encourage other Hollywood actors in his genre to come to Broadway.

Note: The individual acting awards do not often fall under the “Best for Business” criteria, so I’ll give you a straight will/should in each:

–

Geoffrey Rush in "Exit the King"

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play:

Jeff Daniels – God of Carnage
Raul Esparza – Speed-the-Plow
James Gandolfini – God of Carnage
Geoffrey Rush – Exit the King
Thomas Sadoski – Reasons to Be Pretty

Will win: Geoffrey Rush
Should win: Geoffrey Rush

–

The stars of "Mary Stuart"

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play:

Hope Davis- God of Carnage
Jane Fonda – 33 Variations
Marcia Gay Harden – God of Carnage
Janet McTeer – Mary Stuart
Harriet Walter – Mary Stuart

Will win: Marcia Gay Harden (and let’s hope she makes some weird, 9/11 remark in the speech)
Should win: Janet McTeer

–

Brian d'Arcy James as Shrek

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical:

David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, and Kiril Kulish – Billy Elliot, The Musical
Gavin Creel – Hair
Brian d’Arcy James – Shrek The Musical
Constantine Maroulis – Rock of Ages
J. Robert Spencer – Next to Normal

Will win: David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, and Kiril Kulish (three different boys split time each week playing the title role in “Billy Elliot”)
Should win: Brian d’Arcy James

–

Alice Ripley in "Next to Normal"

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical:

Stockard Channing – Pal Joey
Sutton Foster – Shrek The Musical
Allison Janney – 9 to 5: The Musical
Alice Ripley – Next to Normal
Josefina Scaglione – West Side Story

Who will win: Alice Ripley
Who should win: Alice Ripley

Last prediction: Gay Marriage will be the most joked about, pontificated about, and ranted about issue on the stage. You’re going to hear about it from the host, Neil Patrick Harris, all the way down to the winner of the most obscure technical award. Get ready for being called a bigot and a hater if you think marriage means one man and one woman.

Buckle-up and enjoy the evening. It should be a pretty entertaining show. I’ll switch over as soon as the Laker game is over. (I’m kidding! That’s why God invented picture-in-picture)

Stage Right is on Facebook.

Nathan Lane and John Goodman are selling tickets hand over fist for their revival of “Waiting for Godot” but neither received the honor of a nomination.  Same with David Hyde Pierce, Frank Langella, Mary Louise Parker and Matthew Broderick. 

It was no surprise that Jeremy Piven was included out of the Best Actor category after his famous sushi defense for missing performances in David Mamet’s “Speed-the-Plow,” but not honoring John Lithgow’s brilliant turn in “All My Sons” in the same category is a crime against humanity!  It ranks up there with the snub of Dustin Hoffman as Willy Loman in the 1984 revival of “Death of a Salesman.” Brian Dennehy was honored with the Best Actor award when he did Willy Loman in 2000, but that goodwill did not anoint him worthy of a nomination this year for his turn in “Desire Under the Elms.” 

Add to the list of the egregiously overlooked: Diane Wiest, Kristin Scott Thomas, Daniel Radcliffe, Tovah Feldshuh, Joan Allen, Jeremy Irons, Rupert Everett, Christine Ebersol, Patrick Wilson, Susan Sarandon and Katie Holmes. 

As an industry, Broadway seems to take an odd pride in the moniker “The Fabulous Invalid” and I have lamented this mindset on these pages before.  Broadway’s ability to eat its young and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory has become legendary and not a little bit annoying. 

Here we are at the end of a season where the biggest headline was about how horrible things are on Broadway and how every show is closing and how there are nothing but empty theatres, and right when the industry has a chance to turn that story around and promote the fact that not only has every theatre been occupied but incredibly high-wattage stars have come out to perform live in intimate, beautiful theatres, they turn around and kill their own lead. 

Wouldn’t it have been great to have a nationally televised theatre awards show with ratings better than an NHL playoff game? 

Now, I understand the argument that everyone can’t be nominated, and I recognize that some pretty big names were honored like Jeff Daniels, Geoffery Rush, Marcia Gay Harden, Jane Fonda, Stockard Channing, John Glover and Angela Lansbury.  But, really, if the industry is in the trouble they say it’s in, and you have a chance to showcase Daniel Radcliffe, Katie Holmes (and maybe Mr. Holmes?) and Rupert Everett on national television as honored performers from the prior season, shouldn’t you figure out a way to do it? 

Here’s a modest proposal:  Expand the acting categories!  Where is it written in stone that there should only be five nominees for each category?  In some pretty thin years in the not-too-distant past they have nominated LESS than five in some categories.  (I know that the doom-sayers on Broadway all think that this is the worst it’s ever been, but seriously, in 1989 the THREE nominees for Best Musical were “Jerome Robbins’ Broadway”, “Black and Blue” and “Starmites”!).  So in a crappy year, they change the rules and only nominate three, but in a year packed with stars, they hold to the arbitrary five nominee rule and the story becomes “Who Got Snubbed”.  It makes no sense at all. 

I know that none of this seems to follow a “Right versus Left” storyline that many of you may be used to here at Big Hollywood, but hang in there with me for a few more thoughts.  The fact is, the left on Broadway (meaning the vast majority of actors, designers and staffers in the production offices) relish the fact that they give a big “up yours” to the Hollywood types who dare to come to Broadway.  In this context, the Hollywood actors are “rich” and the New York theatre people are the poor, starving artists giving up riches for their craft.  They want to see the Hollywood star fail.  It’s classic class warfare, just like it is played out in the political world of America. 

The same mentality that celebrates the increased taxes on “The Rich” and rails against “Big Pharma” and “Big Oil” yet fails to recognize the damage done to our society when these productive members of our economy are punished by ever-burdensome taxes and regulations is at play when they watch in bitchy glee as Hollywood movie stars are snubbed in favor of a “real” actor from their ranks.  But they fail to realize that those Hollywood hacks are the ones who are selling the tickets and keeping the “Theatre Community” employed.  If Hollywood actors ever get the message and stop risking rejection and embarrassment by performing on Broadway, it will just mean more unemployment for the theatre purists. 

But, that’s OK, they’ll just blame Middle America for not being smart or cultured enough to truly appreciate Thomas Sadoski in “Reasons to be Pretty” instead of wanting to see Tom Cruise’s wife or that guy from “3rd Rock From the Sun.” 

Stage Right is on Facebook.

Star-turned-producer Hugh Jackman has scored his second-biggest opening ever and, easily, his biggest as a solo star. Wolverine has mauled the competition with a massive $34.75M opening day (including $5M or so in Thursday midnight sales). That could translate to a 3-day of $86.8M, getting Hollywood’s most lucrative season off to a spectacular start.

The stars of WOLVERINE (from the left): Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool, Taylor Kitsch as Gambit, Hugh Jackman as Wolverine, Liev Schrieber as Sabretooth and Lynn Collins as Kayla Silverfox

The X-Men spin-off, which has been made for substantially less than the $210M budget ponied up for to produce 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand, becomes the all-time fourth-best first-weekend-of-May opening, trailing only Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M), the original 2002 Spider-Man ($114.8M) and last May’s Iron Man ($98.6M). Wolverine has also posted one of the top seven opening days ever for a comic book adaptation.

ALL-TIME BEST OPENINGS DAYS FOR COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS
1. The Dark Knight – $67.1M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $59.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand – $45.1M
4. Spider-Man 2 – $40.4M
5. Spider-Man – $39.4M
6. Iron Man – $35.2M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $34.75M (estimated)
8. X2: X-Men United – $31.2M
9. 300 – $28.1M
10. Watchmen – $24.5M

And, as comic book movies go, Jackman’s solo effort has cut and sliced through the pack to become the all-time seventh-best 3-day start.

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE will not match the opening weekend of last year's summer starter IRON MAN

ALL-TIME BEST OPENING WEEKENDS FOR A COMIC BOOK ADAPTATION
1. The Dark Knight – $158.4M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $151.1M
3. Spider-Man – $114.8M
4. X-Men: The Last Stand – $102.7M
5. Iron Man – $98.6M
6. Spider-Man 2 – $88.1M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $86.8M (projected)
8. X2: X-Men United – $85.5M
9. 300 – $70.8M
10. Hulk – $62.1M

How does Jackman hold his silverware during dinner?

Jackman himself is getting lots of positive feedback on his personal Twitter page, but there is some real negative feedback in the Twitterverse. Here are some actually Tweets from movie fans that have been posted in the last couple of hours.

if its wolverine dont waste your time

Wolverine sucks!

Wolverine: not too bad. Better than the horrible second X-Men movie. Coolest thing was preview for District-9.

I went and paid for 2 movie tix to see that damn Wolverine movie. I just wasted my money.

Wolverine was ok – too much smooshed into one movie and too many things attempted to be neatly wrapped up and squared away.

Saw Wolverine. It was weak.

What does Hugh Jackman being a hottie have 2 do w/ how crappy the movie is?

Oh my God Wolverine was just as bad as everyone was saying.

out to see Wolverine! Ill let you guys know how bad it is.

“don’t waste your money” unless you’re a huge fan. Like 2nd X-files bad.

So, it appears that fans are as tepid about this movie as film critics. X-Men Origins: Wolverine will likely be very front-loaded both for the weekend and the long haul. I’m guessing that the weekend could play out like this. Wolverine did $5M Thursday at midnight and has added another $29.75M Friday (for a $34.75M opening day). Then Saturday, the movie may drop 9% to $31.6M or so, followed by a Sunday dip of 36% to just over $20M.

Jackman is not just another action star; Here he is in his Tony-winning performance in Broadway's BOY FROM OZ

After speaking with a number of competing studios, the consensus is that Wolverine will have a multiple of less than two. (The multiple is the number by which you multiply the opening weekend to arrive at the ultimate domestic gross.) With a multiple in the 1.8-1.9 range, the summer’s first movie spectacle will finish at $156-$165M. That’s a good, but not great number. Meanwhile, Star Trek (Paramount) has a chance to be this year’s Iron Man, an early May release that plays deep into the summer at a high multiple in the 3.2-3.3 range.

Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner are creating some sparks in GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST

The other wide release in the marketplace this weekend is the poorly-reviewed Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros). With Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner as the romantic leads and an assist from Oscar winner Michael Douglas, Ghosts has performed decently, especially with Females 25 Plus. The Mark Waters-directed rom-com coaxed an estimated $6M in opening day sales and will likely reach about $16.5M for the weekend. That’s would be 12% stronger than last year’s first-weekend-of-May chick-flick counter programming, Made of Honor, which finished second to Iron Man with $14.7M.

Ali Larter (center) and Beyonce (right) come to blows over THE WIRE's Idris Elba in OBSESSED

Last weekend’s box office champ Obsessed (Sony) – the one where Beyonce “tromps a tramp” (played by Ali Larter from Heroes) – took a nosedive with just $4.2M or so on Friday. It seems headed for an estimated 3-day of $12.39M, down 57% from its opening, but the genre pic with a budget of only $20M will still have $47M in the bank by Monday. That’s a very profitable little movie.

Tween are pushing Zac Efron's 17 AGAIN past the $50M mark

The Warner Bros comedy 17 Again, starring tween dream Zac Efron, continues to perform well with about $2.22M to start the weekend and a possible $6.62M for the frame. Zac’s high-concept comedy will have topped $48.7M domestic in its first 17 days of release.

The new nature doc EARTH is really just the Cliff Notes for the extraordinary BBC miniseries PLANET EARTH

Disney’s Earth, a 90-minute version of the BBC’s 11-hour 2006 miniseries Planet Earth, will round out the top five for the first official weekend of summer. The nature doc grabbed $1.45M on its second Friday and is targeting $5.81M and a new 12-day cume of $23.47M by Monday.

The other wide release is the 3-D pic Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions). It is on just over 1,100 screens, but has managed only about $300,000 on opening day. I did see a commercial for Terra during American Idol this week, so there was some money spent, but it couldn’t have been much. Despite respectable reviews, this cg animated flick is destined for no more than $1M. That’s a full-on disaster.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $34.75M, $8,478 PTA, $34.75M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $6M, $1,890 PTA, $6M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $4.2M, $1,671 PTA, $39M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $2.22M, $682 PTA, $44.36M cume
5. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.7M, $836 PTA, $14.2M cume
6. Earth (Disney) – $1.45M, $804 PTA, $19.11M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.41M, $537 PTA, $178M cume
8. Fighting (Rogue) – $1.4M, $608 PTA, $14.73M cume
9. State of Play (Universal) – $1.28M, $527 PTA, $28.51M cume
10. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $1.1M, $390 PTA, $67.88M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – $300,000, $258 PTA, $300,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $86.8M, $21,194 PTA, $86.8M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $16.5M, $5,197 PTA, $16.5M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $12.39M, $4,928 PTA, $47.19M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $6.62M, $2,034 PTA, $48.76M cume
5. Earth (Disney) – $5.81M, $3,221 PTA, $23.47M cume
6. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.7M, $2,804 PTA, $18.2M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.65M, $2,152 PTA, $182.25M cume
8. State of Play (Universal) – $4.31M, $1,765 PTA, $31.54M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $3.96M, $1,405 PTA, $70.74M cume
10. Fighting (Rogue) – $3.76M, $1,630 PTA, $17.1M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – $1M, $878 PTA, $1M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Look at these numbers.

X-Men – estimated budget – $75M
$20.8M opening day – $54.5M opening weekend – $152.3M domestic – $296.3M global

X-2: X-Men United – estimated budget – $110M
$31.25M opening day – $85.5M opening weekend – $214.9M domestic – $407.7M global

X-Men: The Last Stand – estimated budget – $210M
$45.1M opening day – $102.7M opening weekend – $224.4M domestic – $459.3M global

It’s pretty clear that, with no cost-containment on budget (especially the big cast), the X-Men franchise had reached the point of diminishing returns. So, X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox), debuting Friday, is a sequel, but, technically, a spin-off, without costing as much as a true sequel would.

A very different Hugh Jackman won the Tony for Best Actor for his performance in Broadway's BOY FROM OZ

I’m guessing that Hugh Jackman is working for a great price, also serving as a producer with a healthy backend participation. The rest of the name cast is essentially limited to Liev Schrieber (The Manchurian Candidate, The Omen), Dominic Monaghan (The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, ABC’s Lost) and Ryan Reynolds (Blade: Trinity, The Amityville Horror), and there is no Bryan Singer (X-Men, X-2) or Brett Ratner (X-Men 3) to direct. Instead, Fox and Jackman settled on the much less expensive, but still Academy Award-winning director Gavin Hood (Tsotsi). Now with a scaled-back story and cast, the movie comes in at a much more studio-friendly price while, hopefully, still packing an X-Men-style box office punch.

Aussie director Gavin Hood accepting his Oscar for TSOTSI

Fox has smartly positioned Wolverine as the first movie into the summer fray, and that is important because this is the one May huge release that may not have long legs (I believe that J.J. Abrams’ Star Trek will squash it like a bug on the all-new Enterprise windshield next week). I am told that pre-release industry tracking is in the stratosphere for this X-Men spin-off – Un-Aided Awareness, Total Awareness, Definite Interest and First Choice are all through the roof. When the tracking data gets this heated, predictions are dicey at best, but I am calling for $92M domestic. That would be just a tick lower than last year’s first-weekend-of-May starter Iron Man, which was $98.6M.

Without claws: Hugh Jackman as host of the 2009 Academy Awards

For those of you who may be reading my column for the first time, that $92M figure is my “prediction.” That means that based on my experience, conversations with sources at competing studios and interpretation of pre-release industry tracking, I am making a well-educated guess as to how X-Men Origins: Wolverine will deliver in opening weekend US sales. (The road is littered with other well-educated guessers, and I have missed substantially on a few predictions in the past.)

When I start writing on Friday, it will be based on early ticket sales. That will make my numbers “projections” instead of “predictions.” My Early Friday and 3-Day “projections” are historically off by no more than 5%-8%.

For the record, I believe that Mr. Jackman and the folks at Fox will be quite happy with anything north of $80M, but they are definitely working to keep expectations lower. In the end, I think they’ll be in the $90M-$95M range for 3-days.

Over the long haul, WOLVERINE will be no match for last year's IRON MAN

Ultimately, Iron Man performed like a monster deep into the summer. It was followed by the box office misfire Speed Racer on the following Friday, giving the Jon Favreau-directed comic book adaptation basically 17 days alone in the marketplace. Wolverine doesn’t have that luxury with the aforementioned Star Trek, arriving next Thursday starting at 7pm.

Additionally, Iron Man was jet-powered by spectacular reviews (93% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes)
and excellent word-of-mouth. It’ll be more of a mixed bag for X-Men Origins: Wolverine, standing at 41% Fresh on RT as of Wednesday night. The multiplier for Iron Man was 3.22 (the number by which you multiply the opening weekend figure by to arrive at the ultimate domestic gross). Wolverine is more likely to finish with a multiplier of 1.8-1.9. If the picture hits my opening weekend number, that multiplier will put the final US total at something in the $165M-$175M range.

In addition to my final weekend prediction, I also believe that Wolverine may scratch and claw its way to one of the top five or six opening days ever for a comic book movie. That could make it the 2nd-biggest opening day ever for a film from the X-Men franchise, trailing only the first day for X-Men 3.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENING DAYS FOR COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS
1. The Dark Knight – $67.1M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $59.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand – $45.1M
4. Spider-Man 2 – $40.4M
5. Spider-Man – $39.4M
6. Iron Man – $35.2M
7. X-2: X-Men United – $31.25M
8. Watchmen – $24.5M
9. Hulk – $24.2M
10. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer – $22M

There is always room for an inspired piece of counter-programming, and Warner Bros is apparently executing just that. The Matthew McConaughey-Jennifer Garner-Michael Douglas rom-com Ghosts of Girlfriends Past could reach a very solid $18M by appealing to Females 25 Plus.

The only other wide release is Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Atttractions), a sci-fi 3-D release unluckily sandwiched between Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) and Pixar’s Up (Disney) on the 3-D release schedule. Despite essentially decent early reviews (70% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), Terra will not be putting up much of a Battle. The 3-D screen count will be low, and there has been no real marketing money spent on getting this one launched. I’m predicting about $3.4M, which might be enough to “sneak it” into the top twelve for the frame.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF MAY 1-3
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $92M
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $18M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $10.2M
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $6.5M
5. Earth (Disney) – $5.6M
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.5M
7. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5M
8. State of Play (Universal) – $4.3M
9. Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $3.9M
10. Fighting (Rogue) – $3.8M
11. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $3.5M
12. NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate) – $3.4M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Beyonce does battle with the sexy Ali Larter (HEROES) in OBSESSED

OPENINGS FOR BEYONCE MOVIES
1. Austin Powers: Goldmember – $70.3M opening
2. Obsessed – $27.5M opening (projected)
3. Pink Panther (2006) – $20.2M opening
4. Dreamgirls – $14.1M wide break (after a platform start)
5. The Fighting Temptations – $11.7M opening
6. Cadillac Records – $3.4M opening

Now a million-selling solo artist with ubiquitous hits like Irreplaceable and Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It), she is beginning to cash in at the box office. She parlayed supporting roles in Mike Myers Austin Powers: Goldmember and Steve Martin’s Pink Panther into the showy Deena Jones role in the film adaptation of Dreamgirls, which topped $100M domestic (although the most of the awards hardware was ultimately taken home by Jennifer Hudson, winning Best Supporting Actress at both the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards). Beyonce received generally good notices for her turn as Etta James in Cadillac Records in December, although the movie was a box office dud with just $8.2M domestic. Now she has managed a surprise hit on her own with Obsessed.

By all accounts the movie is not very good. Sony didn’t screen it for critics, and the early reviews trickling in decidedly negative (25% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). Perhaps the excellent Pete Hammond from Hollywood.com sums it up best saying, “It’s strictly a generic thriller, perhaps the 105th blatant rip-off of Fatal Attraction, but not without its own guilty pleasures.” My hunch is that there is some trashy fun here with a “girl-on-girl smackdown” (Geoff Berkshire’s words from his review on Metromix.com), and the other girl is the stunning Ali Larter from NBC’s Heroes. Still when all is said and done, Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine (Fox) and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) starring Matthew McConaughey, both due next Friday, are certain to make Obsessed a one-week wonder, and it may get a speeding ticket on its way to home video.

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE kicks off the summer next Friday

Even if Beyonce’s “movie legs” aren’t as long as her real (and shapely) legs, Obsessed has set a new opening record for the last weekend of April, traditionally a studio dumping ground for schlock and tough-to-sell movies.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS ON LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL
1. Obsessed (2009) – $27.5M (projected)
2. Mean Girls (2004) – $24.4M
3. Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Universe (2005) – $21.1M
4. Baby Mama (2008) – $17.4M
5. RV (2006) – $16.4M
6. Identity (2003) – $16.2M
7. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay (2008) – $14.9M
8. XXX: State of the Union (2005) – $12.7M
9. Driven (2001) – $12.1M
10. United 93 (2006) – $11.5M

Former A&F model Channing Tatum is flexing his box office muscle this weekend in FIGHTING

Aside from the monstrous upside surprise for Obsessed, the strong performance of Fighting (Rogue) ranks as the biggest box office upset of the weekend. This Channing Tatum vehicle from his A Guide To Recognizing Your Saints director Dito Montiel didn’t seem to have much traction in pre-release audience tracking, but the PG-13 street fighting yarn has actually delivered the second-best Friday gross with about $4.46M. It will be pretty front-loaded, but should still reach a better-than-expected $12M by Monday, enough for second-place.

Zac Efron is proving to be a little less durable among the teen and pre-teen set than I would have thought. 17 Again (Warner Bros), also starring Matthew Perry and Mrs. Judd Apatow (Leslie Mann) has delivered a second Friday in the $3.85M range. The weekend could hit $10.83M or so, second for the 3-day, for a new 10-day cume of $39.13M, but that represents a deeper-than-expected 54% drop.

Next comes the long-delayed Robert Downey Jr./Jamie Foxx project The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount). Originally slated for December with hopes of a Best Actor nomination for Downey, Jr., the Joe Wright-directed tearjerker was first moved to March before settling into this unfriendly last weekend of April slot. Reviews are respectable (61% Fresh on RT) and Downey, Jr. and Foxx both have real drawing power. At just over 2,000 playdates, the movie has managed a tuneful $3.43M (#4 for the day) to start the frame, and opening weekend could reach $10.29M, good for fourth place. The 25 Plus appeal, especially with women, gives this one a chance to do respectable business over the next couple of weekends as counter-programming to the first few summer blockbusters.

A Great White Shark lunging out of the ocean to snatch a seal in Disney's EARTH

Rounding out the top five, and a bit of a disappointment, is Earth (Disney). The studio’s calculated use of Earth Day to release its Cliffs Notes version of the BBC miniseries Planet Earth has, however, paid some dividends. The 11-hour miniseries has been boiled down to the cutest and scariest animals along with the most fascinating images and picturesque landscapes in a tight 90-minute package, and the re-purposed result generated just over $4M for Wednesday’s Earth Day celebration, adding another $1.6M or so on Thursday. Now the nature doc, which is running at 83% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, has slumped to an estimated $2.9M in Friday sales. It will play big with family audiences on Saturday and Sunday (the kids will be unable to resist baby polar bears sliding down a snowy arctic slope), but I am penciling in Earth for a 3-day of only $10M. That still gives it the biggest 3-day opening ever for a nature doc, although this is also the widest opening ever for a movie of this type.

ALL-TIME TOP 3-DAY OPENINGS FOR NATURE DOCS
- total domestic cumes included -
1. Earth – $9.39M (projected)
2. March of the Penguins – $7.1M opening – $77.4M cume
3. Two Brothers – $6.1M opening – $19.1M cume
4. Winged Migration – $470,000 biggest weekend – $10.7M cume
5. Arctic Tale -  $207,000 opening – $830,000 cume

2004’s Two Brothers, a story of tiger cubs from director Jean-Jacques Annaud, was a wide release like Earth, but the other 3 films listed above were platformed. Disney’s abridged version of Planet Earth has no chance of reaching the staggering success of 2005’s March of the Penguins, but Earth could get to the $30M range even with summer’s biggest guns blazing starting next Friday.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $11M, $4,375 PTA, $11M cume
2. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $4.46M, $1,932 PTA, $4.46M cume
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $3.85M, $1,183 PTA, $32.15M cume
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.2M, $1,581 PTA, $3.2M cume
5. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $2.9M, $1,608 PTA, $8.54M cume
6. State of Play (Universal) – $2.08M, $741 PTA, $20.31M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.05M, $579 PTA, $168.34M cume
8. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $1.93M, $541 PTA, $141.09M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $1.77M, $548 PTA, $60.98M cume
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $850,000, $382 PTA, $9.96M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $27.5M, $10,939 PTA, $27.5M cume
2. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $12M, $5,197 PTA, $12M cume
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $10.83M, $3,327 PTA, $39.13M
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $10.29M, $5,084 PTA, $10.29M cume
5. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $10M, $5,543 PTA, $15.64M cume
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.5M, $2,531 PTA, $174.79M cume
7. State of Play (Universal) – $7.1M, $2,529 PTA, $25.33M cume
8. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $6.65M, $2,058 PTA, $65.86M cume
9. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $5.79M, $1,625 PTA, $144.95M cume
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $2.8M, $1,259 PTA, $11.91M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

The 4 new wide releases and 1 major specialty release set to debut this weekend will face an onslaught of mega-hits over the next month. How can Obsessed (Sony), Earth (Disney), The Soloist, (Dreamworks/Paramount), Fighting (Rogue) and The Informers (Senator) possibly find an audience with X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) arriving next weekend followed by, in successive weeks, Star Trek (Paramount), Angels & Demons (Sony), the combo of Night at the Museum 2 (Fox) and Terminator: Salvation (Fox) and Disney/Pixar’s Up?

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE starring Hugh Jackman will be unleashed next weekend

End of April starters have tended to be genre pics like 2003’s Identity and The Invisible (2007), mid-budget messes that have fallen short of expectations like the ridiculous Next (2007) starring Nicolas Cage and XXX: State of the Union in ’05, and tough-to-sell pictures like the excellent United 93 (2006) from director Paul Greengrass and the good-hearted 2006 movie Akeelah & the Bee. Tina Fey is the unofficial queen of the last weekend of April, writing and starring in Mean Girls and mugging her way through Baby Mama with Amy Poehler last year.

30 ROCK's Tina Fey has starred in 2 of the 3 biggest last weekend of April openers ever

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS ON LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL
1. Mean Girls (2004) – $24.4M
2. Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Universe (2005) – $21.1M
3. Baby Mama (2008) – $17.4M
4. RV (2006) – $16.4M
5. Identity (2003) – $16.2M
6. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay (2008) – $14.9M
7. XXX: State of the Union (2005) – $12.7M
8. Driven (2001) – $12.1M
9. United 93 (2006) – $11.5M
10. Stick It (2006) – $10.8M

The likely weekend winner will be either Obsessed or Disney’s nature doc Earth, which opened Wednesday to about $4M, but I am giving the nod to recording superstar Beyonce despite the fact that Sony has kept its exploitative-looking thriller completely under wraps. Under its Screen Gems banner, Sony knows how to squeeze one good weekend out of movie like this regardless of how bad it is. Last year, Screen Gems scored excellent 3-day starts for sub-par movies like Prom Night ($20.8M), First Sunday ($17.7M), Lakeview Terrace ($15M), Quarantine ($14.2M) and Untraceable ($11.3M). Industry tracking suggests that Beyonce could drive the certain-to-be-forgettable Obsessed to a decent $15M opening weekend, and it will likely play very well at inner city theatre properties.

That would push Earth to #2 for the frame. The Earth Day opening was successful, and critics love the film (83% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). Family audiences love cute baby animals so Disney has excerpted the amazing BBC miniseries Planet Earth to fashion their own March of the Penguins-style narrative nature doc. It’s hard to imagine anything cuter than baby polar bears sliding down a snow bank, and it’s hard to come up with anything scarier than a Great White Shark lunging out of the water after its prey. I have seen the full length miniseries, but not Disney’s movie. Still it’s hard to imagine this not being unbelievably compelling stuff, even in its 90 minute theatrical version (although I still recommend tracking down the full BBC series instead). I am forecasting a possible $13.2M for 3-days, which would mean a 5-day start of just over $19M.

Last weekend’s champ, 17 Again (Warner Bros) starring ‘tween heartthrob Zac Efron, should hold up fairly well. The word-of-mouth is very positive, and that could mean a drop of only 46% or so to about $12.7M and a new cume of just over $40M by Monday.

Oscar nominee Robert Downey, Jr. (TROPIC THUNDER) and Academy Award winner Jamie Foxx (RAY) star in THE SOLOIST

The Joe Wright-directed The Soloist has been juggled around the release schedule with abandon, but it has been very well marketed with a heavy TV campaign, especially during shows geared for the 25+ crowd. The reviews are a mixed bag (54% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but there will be some business in this title. Some of my sources are saying $12M-$14M, but I am calling for a possible $11.6M.

The well-reviewed Russell Crowe journalism thriller State of Play (Universal) will almost certainly hang onto a spot in the top 5. The dip will be gentle (maybe 35%-40%), and this very good adult film could generate another $9M in ticket sales.

FINAL PREDICTION FOR APRIL 24-26
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $15M
2. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $13.2M
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $12.7M
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $11.6M
5. State of Play (Universal) – $9M
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $7.9M
7. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $7.4M
8. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $7M
9. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $5.8M
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $2.8M
11. Knowing (Summit) – $2M
12. NEW – The Informers (Senator) – $1.7M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.