The premise of “The Change-Up” alone seems like a copycat of the slew of body-switching comedies that flooded theaters in the late 1980s (“Big,” “Like Father Like Son,” “18 Again,” “Dream a Little Dream,” and “Vice Versa,” to name a few). And to add to the sense of laziness, it stars Jason Bateman in what’s starting to appear to be his Movie of the Month Club, playing an uptight corporate lawyer who can’t seem to get a promotion — virtually the same character he played just a month ago in “Horrible Bosses.”

Meanwhile, Ryan Reynolds reverts to the crude shenanigans of his breakthrough film “Van Wilder” in playing a constantly stoned slacker whose idea of a big break is landing a role in a soft-core porn flick. One wishes immediately that both they and the filmmakers – who are talented in the R-rated comedy genre, as Jon Lucas and Scott Moore created the first “Hangover” and David Dobkin directed “Wedding Crashers” – had followed their own title and attempted to create a film that relied more on clever writing and reinventing the body-switching subgenre than just attempting to push the envelope until it’s torn wide open and shredded to pieces.

In the flick, Bateman plays Dave, an uptight and married corporate lawyer whose promotion to firm partner rests on his mastering a huge merger. Reynolds, meanwhile, is Mitch, who’s been his best friend since third grade even though his character would be more likely to flush Bateman’s head down a toilet than hang out with him in real life.

Both men, of course, wish that they had the life of the other. Then one night, while simultaneously urinating in a public fountain, they both say “I wish I had your life!” at the same time, and the body-switch is made. The results are disastrous for both characters, and they realize the only way they can change back is by urinating again in the same magic fountain, which has been suddenly uprooted by the city of Atlanta and lost in the shuffle of bureaucratic paperwork.

The guys have to wait a week before finding the statue, meaning Reynolds now has to inhabit Bateman’s body and experience married life, fatherhood, and responsibility. That also means Bateman’s character can finally live out his wildest fantasies while using Reynolds’ body.

For the first half of the film, this scenario results in a tedious series of events and a slew of profanities that push the limits of bad taste. Fortunately, writers Moore and Lucas and director Dobkin pull off a welcome surprise in the film’s second half, during which time the two friends have to learn from their situations and become better men. This is done with much better writing, much less vulgarity, a welcome minimum of sap, and a heightened commitment to the roles played by the leads.

It also helps that in the second half, the main women in their lives (Leslie Mann and Olivia Wilde) are revealed as funny and multidimensional people, not mere shrews or sex objects. Which makes me wonder: if the writers are capable of writing fairly tasteful yet still very funny material in the second half, why not do it all the way through? You offend less people and entertain more, leading to more people showing up in the theater.

This leaves moviegoers who like R-rated comedies with a decision that may have to be decided by a coin flip rather than a change-up.  If you are at all easily offended, this movie is not for you. But if you can handle all the raunchy language and behavior leading to the film’s otherwise well-done, witty, and meaningful second half, then perhaps take a swing at “The Change-Up.”

—–

The three mistreated employees in this story are Nick Hendricks (Jason Bateman), Dale Arbus (Charie Day) and Kurt Buckman (Jason Sudeikis). Harken, Nick’s boss, is a psychotic manager who openly mocks and threatens his employees. Meanwhile, dental assistant Dale is being sexually harassed by his boss, Dr. Julia Harris (Jennifer Aniston) while Kurt, who works at a chemical company, is often mistreated by his boss, a demented cokehead named Bobby Pellit (Colin Farrell). The three men eventually conspire to have their bosses murdered with the assistance of a ex-convict that they meet at a local bar (Jamie Foxx).

The logic of their plan is that each man will kill the other man’s boss, thus throwing off the police. This formula was used before as both a drama (“Strangers”) and a comedy (“Throw”).  There’s even a scene where the three employees openly discuss and give homage to those earlier films, although one of the characters doesn’t seem to know the difference between the two.

However, there is one major problem with the plot. Dale’s boss seems to be the only dentist who was willing to hire him because of Dale’s previous conviction as a sex offender, a conviction he received after going to the bathroom in a children’s playground after hours. Although Dale wants to keep his job as a dental assistant, he also wants his boss murdered. However, if his boss is killed, he wouldn’t have a job anymore. Dale doesn’t seem to take this into consideration.

“Bosses” tries to follow in the footsteps of “Bridemaids” and “The Hangover” in its reliance on vulgarity. Unfortunately, the raunchiness in “Bosses” is often unfunny and disgusting. A few funny sex jokes could work in a film like this but the film relies on references to sexual organs, intercourse and sexual deviancy for laughs and most of the jokes fall dismally flat and may leave audiences disgusted.

There are a few funny scene, however, and some members of the supporting cast shine in their roles. Kevin Spacey, Charlie Day and Colin Farrell all stand out for the life they bring to their often unlikeable characters. However, the script falters and leaves the actors doing as much as they can with limp lines and unbelievable plot developments. The story’s conclusion ultimately feels fake as all of the main problems are resolved relatively easily. It’s as if the writers needed an easy way to tie things up and just threw in the first idea they had.

“Horrible Bosses” isn’t a terrible movie, but it’s mediocre at best and would be a horrible way to waste an afternoon.

After Aniston’s ill-advised political posturing, Bill O’Reilly picked up on the quote and riffed off it on his FoxNews show.  Key quote:

Aniston can hire a battery of people to help her, but she cannot hire a dad, OK? And Dads bring a psychology to children that is, in this society, I believe, underemphasized. I think men get hosed all day long in the parental arena.

This is, of course, right on the money.  Since the right to abort a fetus was dubbed “a woman’s right to choose,” feminists, the welfare state, and deadbeat dads across America have done their level best to marginalize the role a father plays in a child’s life.  And finally, in 2010, Jennifer Aniston proclaims that men are officially unnecessary for child rearing.

So, Aniston billed the Switch as a tale of 21st Century girl power and was rewarded with nightmare-ish press from America’s number one cable news show.  Lo and behold, the movie takes an abysmal seventh place at its opening weekend box office behind “Julia Roberts Eats Gelato on a Park Bench” as well as movies called “Lottery Ticket” and “Vampire Sucks” which I first heard of just now.

**MAJOR SPOILERS AHEAD**

Before we go any further, I’d like to suggest you stop reading this post right now because I am about to give away the plot of one of the best films of the year.  No kidding.  But if you need your culture war fix, read on.

Kassie, played by Aniston, is a successful, man-less career woman whose child-bearing years are numbered.  So, she decides to do what any 21st century progressive feminist would do and get artificially inseminated, bringing another child into the world who won’t get the benefit of the unique qualities only a father can provide.  She plans to do so at a soirée celebrating this act of supreme narcissism.  So far it sounds like required viewing for new NOW membership.  But not so fast…

At the party, we first meet the sperm-donating hunk Roland (played by the talented Patrick Wilson), donning a ridiculous Viking helmet.  Meanwhile, the doctor who will perform the insemination is preparing for the procedure by partying as hard as anyone.  Then comes the Switch’s riotous kid-humps-a-pie-iconic scene where Aniston’s jealous best friend Wally (a top-notch Jason Bateman) switches The Viking’s semen with his own.  The switch is made unbeknownst to Kassie (and even Wally, who was inebriated at the time), and the end result is Sebastian (played unforgettably by Thomas Robinson).  Later on we’ll learn that instead of taking after the upbeat Adonis Roland, Sebastian is the spitting image of hyper-analytical, hyper-cynical, hand-wringer Wally.  By the end of the party it’s clear the single-mom getting artificially inseminated idea is being mocked.  Here’s more proof:

Yup, Ms. Aniston, it’s satire, and the joke’s on feministas like you.

Aniston moves away and years later she returns for the second act.  It’s in this act that we learn the film isn’t about feminism at all, and it isn’t even about Kassie.  The Switch ultimately is about the relationship that develops between Wally and his biological son Sebastian who he’s just now meeting for the first time at age seven.  Their union is blissful; the kindred spirits fill obvious voids in each others’ lives, and contrary to everything you’re taught in college about fathers, Sebastian needs Wally.  For example, Sebastian begins to gravitate towards his new adult male role model, not his mother, when he’s getting bullied at school.

In the final act, Wally drunkenly stumbles to his friend Leonard’s house at 4am, miserable after finally spilling the beans about the switch to Kassie and fearing he’s lost her and Sebastian forever.  Leonard, played by a very funny Jeff Goldblum, implores him to “go home.”  To that Wally says, “they are my home.”

As you could guess by now, the traditional family is united in the end and it’s smiles all around.

I saw the Switch against my will.  Between Aniston’s insistence this was a film that was culturally relevant in it’s rejection of the traditional family and an ad campaign that centered on billboards of Jason Bateman staring into a cup of male ejaculate, I came into it expecting something akin to an Enhanced Interrogation Technique.  As it turns out, the Switch has a clever plot executed with brisk pacing, complete with memorable performances, and an optimism in the traditional family structure that rises above the chaos of 21st century progressive foolishness.

Aniston’s assessment that the film was a revelation about how men are unnecessary was 180-degrees off the mark.  It’s as if she didn’t see the movie herself.  And that’s sad, not because she cost the film money, but because she deterred a lot of people from a real 21st century novelty: a deep and deeply funny movie-going experience.

—–

Far more rare is the case that a film can look atrocious and downright distasteful in its ad campaign and then turn out to be an outright winner. Yet thankfully that’s the case with the new dramedy “The Switch,” in which Jennifer Aniston plays Kassie, a woman who opts for artificial insemination when she can’t find Mr. Right while facing 40. Her best friend Wally (Jason Bateman) offers to be the sperm supplier, but she has him stuck in the “friend zone” and worries he’ll pass on his neuroses to boot.

The TV commercials for “The Switch” cut to the chase with a stomach-churning scene in which Wally (Jason Bateman) drunkenly sniffs, stares at, plays with and then spills the container of sperm that Kassie is hoping to use for the procedure. Realizing that she has an apartment filled with people attending her “pregnancy party,” and that he can’t face up to admitting he’s ruined her big night, he unzips his pants and takes care of replenishing the supply himself.

So far, so icky. And yet, a better movie is already lurking around the edges as there’s witty banter between the two stars, who are in top form throughout the film, and a thoughtful opening narration over images of New Yorkers rushing right past each others’ lives. That clever writing is courtesy of Allan Loeb, who is widely considered the hottest screenwriter in Hollywood these days due to the fact he has a whopping 12 screenplays in production.

The movie pulls a switch of its own after taking a seven-year leap in time. Kassie decided to move back home to Minnesota while pregnant because she felt it would be too hard to raise a child in New York City. But now her son is six, she’s gotten a great job offer back in the Big Apple, and she’s suddenly ready to re-enter Wally’s life.

Wally’s still single and a neurotic mess, but he sees that her son Sebastian (Thomas Robinson, a real find) looks and acts just like himself even as Kassie’s in oblivious denial. And as she relies on Wally to babysit for Sebastian while she delves into a new relationship with the guy she thought was the donor (Patrick Wilson), Wally comes to realize it’s time to grow up and fight for the important things in life.

“The Switch” is directed by the team of Josh Gordon and Will Speck, who previously did the Will Ferrell figure-skating farce “Blades of Glory.” They pull a 180 in this film once the slapsticky first 20 minutes go by, turning out a film that knows when to be funny but more importantly, knows when to be serious without turning sappy. It’s almost as good as the highly regarded 2002 film “About a Boy,” in which Hugh Grant played a middle-aged man-child forced to mature when a lonely teenage boy and his mother enter his life.

Gordon and Speck also make vibrant use of a sharp supporting cast including Jeff Goldblum and Juliette Lewis, as well as the film’s many New York City locations, fully ingraining the city into the film’s atmosphere without relying on overused tourist traps like the Statue of Liberty or the Empire State Building. And the sharp score by Alex Wurman is complemented by an array of thoughtful indie-rock songs.

For those wondering how the film handles the moral issues of artificial insemination and single motherhood, “The Switch” starts out with Kassie happy and determined to get pregnant, saying that a man isn’t necessary to raise a child. But as the film goes on, it uses a couple of quietly powerful and moving sequences to show the enormous emotional impact the lack of a father and the opportunity to bond with a father figure can have on a child. This is one film that handles thorny lifestyle issues in a directly positive way.

Put it all together, and “The Switch” is the best kind of cinematic surprise: a film that is far better than expected and even better than it had to be.

But in the new movie “Couples Retreat,” which not only co-stars but is co-written by real-life best friends Vince Vaughn (“Wedding Crashers”) and Jon Favreau (a popular character actor who has also directed “Iron Man”), these average middle-class American problems are given hilarious voice through vivid performances and rapid-fire dialogue. Or, more accurately, the movie shines when it focuses on those aspects of life in the first half of the film, while disappointingly falling off a cliff for much of the unfocused second half. Yet, just like a real-life marriage that lasts, the ups outnumber the downs enough to make this a satisfying if not spectacular night at the movies. 

“Couples Retreat” kicks off with uptight couple Jason (Jason Bateman) and Cynthia (Kristin Bell of “Forgetting Sarah Marshall”) begging their other friends – workaholic Dave (Vaughn) and his neglected wife Ronnie (Malin Akerman of the underrated remake of “The Heartbreak Kid”), and high school sweethearts-turned-bored middle-agers Joey (Favreau) and Lucy (Kristin Davis of “Sex and the City”), and just-separated Shane (Faizon Love) and his ridiculously young new girlfriend Trudy (scene-stealing Kali Hawk) – to join them on a retreat to the Club Med-style resort of Eden. If they can get a group of four couples together, they can all go half-price – which sounds great to the three seemingly healthy couples, as long as they’re assured they won’t have to go through couples counseling. 

And so they arrive in what seems like paradise, and of course, everyone is subjected to counseling from the get-go. It turns out that Eden is no mere resort, but strictly follows a program by Marcel (Jean Reno) that forces couples to get deep with each other in addition to following regimented diet, sleep and yoga regimens. And this unexpected rigor sets the couples off, opening up about unresolved issues each never knew the other had. 

With the hilarious team of Vaughn and Favreau firing on all cylinders again after their cult-classic teamings in “Swingers” and “Made,” the early stretches at the resort are filled with hilariously sarcastic dialogue that takes well-placed swipes at the sappy, New Age-y relationship advice dispensed far too often in our culture. Seeing these guys fight for their right to be guys while their wives awaken to the fact they have their own reasons to complain rather than simply accept their husbands’ bad habits and passive neglect makes for a sharp take on modern relationships. 

There’s also a gloriously offensive sequence in which the resort’s yoga instructor (the brilliant Carlos Ponce) guides the couples – but especially the ladies – through a series of shockingly inappropriate positions and thrusts that offers some of the funniest film moments of the year. But when Trudy disappears from the married part of the resort, apparently relocating to the singles part of the island to get her freak on with her own age group, the couples all have to come together to sneak her back onto their part of the resort or face early expulsion. Here we’re promised a series of comical misadventures, but instead the film strangely pulls its punches and winds up devolving into a series of pat resolutions. 

Following his star turns in a pair of slipshod Christmas comedies (the bizarre “Fred Claus” and the cliched yet funny “Four Christmases”) it’s clear that Vaughn’s trying to steer himself back on course with “Retreat.” Not only did he co-write it with Favreau, but as producer he’s sprinkled the film with his patented fast patter and hired another lifelong friend, former child actor Peter Billingsley (the immortal Ralphie from “A Christmas Story”) as director. Vaughn also has the class to depict his middle-class, middle-aged Middle Americans with respect. 

In other words, the success or failure of “Couples Retreat” rests squarely on Vaughn’s shoulders. He’s a steady and reliable purveyor of comedy, but rarely makes a stretch in his acting persona. How much you like the film will largely depend on how much you like your comedy served up: if you like familiar comfort food, you’ll be just fine. But if you want something with a truly fresh flavor, you might be disappointed.

Joel’s problem is that he can never get home from work before his wife Susie (Kristen Wiig) puts on the sweatpants at the strike of 8pm … and once the sweatpants are on there will be no sex for the Extract King. What makes him late is the personnel and personality nonsense at the office; what slows him down is Nathan (a terrific David Koecher), one of those boorish nightmares of a neighbor whose lack of self-awareness eventually forces you to be rude to them. So Joel is frustrated — very frustrated, and taking advice from the exact wrong person: His buddy Dean (Ben Affleck), a long-haired bartender who has only one answer to every imaginable problem: Narcotics.

The clouds seem to finally part when General Mills makes an offer to buy Joel’s company. Eager to get out from under the thankless role of employer and escape the never-ending hassles his eccentric staff puts him through, “Sell!” Joel says, and then the mishap occurs. In what’s commonly known as an industrial accident, Step (Clifton Collins Jr.), loses a testicle and the sale of the company is put on hold due to all the unknowns surrounding a personal injury lawsuit.

Thankfully, Step has no desire to take advantage of the situation. All he really wants is a promotion to Floor Manager. Joel’s okay with that and once more the skies clear until the gorgeous, cunning, but still somewhat naive Cindy (Milas Kunis) arrives on the scene to complicate both the lawsuit and Joel’s love life. Having thus far coasted on her looks and made her way through life as a small-time con artist, Cindy sees the loss of a testicle as a shot at the big time.  

Batemen plays put upon about as well anyone out there, his Joel is no exception and he and the whole cast are the best part of a movie that has some fine pieces but never works as a whole. The plotting is choppy, the laughs sparse, and even for a somewhat off-center comedy, Joel’s actions – which turn most of the plot – strain credibility. My abiding affection for “Office Space” is well documented, and no one would argue that much beloved workplace comedy exemplifies tight plotting, but “Extract’s” whole reason for being is predicated on Joel’s inability to get home from work at 8pm and yet after this is firmly established, on at least three occasions, he up and leaves the office on a whim.

One can only suspend so much disbelief.

Judge’s insightful observational comedy is also lacking. “Office Space” (1999) nailed the subculture known as Planet Cubicle, and you didn’t have to live that life to appreciate how perfectly that world was captured. Here you never feel like you’re given the full tour of all the eccentric details that would make up the blue collar small business world of “Extract.” Bits and pieces work: Step’s empty machismo about being the fastest sorter, the tattooed fork-lift operator with the band, the bitter, territorial woman on the assembly line… Unfortunately, they serve only as a taste of what could have been.

Instead, the main focus is on one of those relationship comedies where the audience knows a simple conversation (or leaving work ten-minutes earlier) would solve everything, which in turn makes all the ensuing hilarity feel somewhat forced.

The luminous Kunis is sorely underused. Because the early focus (and the film’s advertising) is on her, it takes a while to adjust to the fact that her character’s primary function is to instigate the main story, not be a major participant in it. On the other hand, Affleck knocks his supporting role out of the park, Gene Simmons has a great time as a flamboyantly unscrupulous lawyer and in what could be a breakout role as the dumbest gigolo ever, Dustin Milligan is responsible for the film’s few memorable scenes.

One could argue the unfairness of comparing anything to “Office Space,” but that lightening in a bottle shared many of “Extract’s” plotting and structural problems. What swamped those flaws and made them irrelevant were endless streams of quotable dialogue and one iconic scene after another. “Extract” has some fine moments and will certainly play better on television than up on the big screen, but never gets off the ground. Removed from the shadow of what came before and placed in a vacuum, the result would not be a more entertaining movie just a less disappointing one.

But just as he seems prepared to make a deal with food giant General Mills to sell the plant for good, a freak accident occurs inside his plant that lops off one of a long-time employee’s testicles. The other is hanging by a thread, a metaphor that is apt for Joel’s life as it suddenly spirals out of control via a surreal round-robin of relationships that come unhinged and turn his life upside-down in the new comedy film “Extract.” 

Written and directed by Mike Judge, who has chronicled the modern everyman’s life in the long-running and brilliant Fox cartoon “King of the Hill” as well as in the short-running yet brilliant 1999 film “Office Space,” “Extract” takes a sharp-eyed and sharp-tongued look at middle-class values in Middle America. But once again, Judge proves that he possesses a true love for the common, working-class Joe that translates into comedy that uplifts rather than demeans the lives of its characters. 

And what characters they are, with Jason Bateman and Kristin Wiig as the lead couple; the gorgeous Mila Kunis playing Cindy, a con-artist whose ever-shifting false love interests enable her to sleep her way to the top of the bottom of the American ladder of success; Ben Affleck, in a hilarious turn as a mullet-sporting bartender named Dean, who can find a way to make any of his incredibly sleazy schemes sound perfectly moral; and Clifton Collins, Jr. as Step, the slow-witted warehouse worker whose twisted testicular travails drive the plot forward. Add in Dustin Milligan in a star-making performance as an incredibly dense aspiring gigolo named Brad, and you’ve got a cast of fresh faces and actors reinventing their personas, with the resulting effect being that Judge’s best lines aren’t just quotable, but rooted in a strong sense of realism turned askew. 

“Extract” marks a welcome return to form for Judge, who spent the decade following “Office Space” immersed in television work and writing-directing the ambitious but highly uneven film satire “Idiocracy” in 2006. After seeing that passion project – in which an average American soldier wakes up 500 years in the future after an experiment goes awry and discovers he’s now the smartest man in the country – trapped on the Fox studio shelf for more than two years before getting literally dumped into a handful of theaters with no ad campaign to support it, Judge has clearly decided to return to the working-class characters that have made him a zillionaire already. 

This time, though, Judge has improved his storytelling from the often-sketchy plotting of “Office Space,” making every scene an essential piece in an ever-more-complicated puzzle of riotous shenanigans. The overall effect matches the powerhouse effect of my favorite comedy of 2008, the Coen Brothers’ “Burn After Reading,” due to its whiplash pacing, utterly amoral and unpredictable characters and twisted dialogue.

Usually a film’s release on Labor Day weekend suggests that it’s a forgettable failure, with a merciful death assured amid the fading glow of summer box-office expectations. Thankfully, that isn’t the case with “Extract,” which deserves a long life in the theaters before its inevitable union with Judge’s other works as comedy staples to be quoted by generations to come.

Star-turned-producer Hugh Jackman has scored his second-biggest opening ever and, easily, his biggest as a solo star. Wolverine has mauled the competition with a massive $34.75M opening day (including $5M or so in Thursday midnight sales). That could translate to a 3-day of $86.8M, getting Hollywood’s most lucrative season off to a spectacular start.

The stars of WOLVERINE (from the left): Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool, Taylor Kitsch as Gambit, Hugh Jackman as Wolverine, Liev Schrieber as Sabretooth and Lynn Collins as Kayla Silverfox

The X-Men spin-off, which has been made for substantially less than the $210M budget ponied up for to produce 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand, becomes the all-time fourth-best first-weekend-of-May opening, trailing only Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M), the original 2002 Spider-Man ($114.8M) and last May’s Iron Man ($98.6M). Wolverine has also posted one of the top seven opening days ever for a comic book adaptation.

ALL-TIME BEST OPENINGS DAYS FOR COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS
1. The Dark Knight – $67.1M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $59.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand – $45.1M
4. Spider-Man 2 – $40.4M
5. Spider-Man – $39.4M
6. Iron Man – $35.2M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $34.75M (estimated)
8. X2: X-Men United – $31.2M
9. 300 – $28.1M
10. Watchmen – $24.5M

And, as comic book movies go, Jackman’s solo effort has cut and sliced through the pack to become the all-time seventh-best 3-day start.

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE will not match the opening weekend of last year's summer starter IRON MAN

ALL-TIME BEST OPENING WEEKENDS FOR A COMIC BOOK ADAPTATION
1. The Dark Knight – $158.4M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $151.1M
3. Spider-Man – $114.8M
4. X-Men: The Last Stand – $102.7M
5. Iron Man – $98.6M
6. Spider-Man 2 – $88.1M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $86.8M (projected)
8. X2: X-Men United – $85.5M
9. 300 – $70.8M
10. Hulk – $62.1M

How does Jackman hold his silverware during dinner?

Jackman himself is getting lots of positive feedback on his personal Twitter page, but there is some real negative feedback in the Twitterverse. Here are some actually Tweets from movie fans that have been posted in the last couple of hours.

if its wolverine dont waste your time

Wolverine sucks!

Wolverine: not too bad. Better than the horrible second X-Men movie. Coolest thing was preview for District-9.

I went and paid for 2 movie tix to see that damn Wolverine movie. I just wasted my money.

Wolverine was ok – too much smooshed into one movie and too many things attempted to be neatly wrapped up and squared away.

Saw Wolverine. It was weak.

What does Hugh Jackman being a hottie have 2 do w/ how crappy the movie is?

Oh my God Wolverine was just as bad as everyone was saying.

out to see Wolverine! Ill let you guys know how bad it is.

“don’t waste your money” unless you’re a huge fan. Like 2nd X-files bad.

So, it appears that fans are as tepid about this movie as film critics. X-Men Origins: Wolverine will likely be very front-loaded both for the weekend and the long haul. I’m guessing that the weekend could play out like this. Wolverine did $5M Thursday at midnight and has added another $29.75M Friday (for a $34.75M opening day). Then Saturday, the movie may drop 9% to $31.6M or so, followed by a Sunday dip of 36% to just over $20M.

Jackman is not just another action star; Here he is in his Tony-winning performance in Broadway's BOY FROM OZ

After speaking with a number of competing studios, the consensus is that Wolverine will have a multiple of less than two. (The multiple is the number by which you multiply the opening weekend to arrive at the ultimate domestic gross.) With a multiple in the 1.8-1.9 range, the summer’s first movie spectacle will finish at $156-$165M. That’s a good, but not great number. Meanwhile, Star Trek (Paramount) has a chance to be this year’s Iron Man, an early May release that plays deep into the summer at a high multiple in the 3.2-3.3 range.

Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner are creating some sparks in GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST

The other wide release in the marketplace this weekend is the poorly-reviewed Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros). With Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner as the romantic leads and an assist from Oscar winner Michael Douglas, Ghosts has performed decently, especially with Females 25 Plus. The Mark Waters-directed rom-com coaxed an estimated $6M in opening day sales and will likely reach about $16.5M for the weekend. That’s would be 12% stronger than last year’s first-weekend-of-May chick-flick counter programming, Made of Honor, which finished second to Iron Man with $14.7M.

Ali Larter (center) and Beyonce (right) come to blows over THE WIRE's Idris Elba in OBSESSED

Last weekend’s box office champ Obsessed (Sony) – the one where Beyonce “tromps a tramp” (played by Ali Larter from Heroes) – took a nosedive with just $4.2M or so on Friday. It seems headed for an estimated 3-day of $12.39M, down 57% from its opening, but the genre pic with a budget of only $20M will still have $47M in the bank by Monday. That’s a very profitable little movie.

Tween are pushing Zac Efron's 17 AGAIN past the $50M mark

The Warner Bros comedy 17 Again, starring tween dream Zac Efron, continues to perform well with about $2.22M to start the weekend and a possible $6.62M for the frame. Zac’s high-concept comedy will have topped $48.7M domestic in its first 17 days of release.

The new nature doc EARTH is really just the Cliff Notes for the extraordinary BBC miniseries PLANET EARTH

Disney’s Earth, a 90-minute version of the BBC’s 11-hour 2006 miniseries Planet Earth, will round out the top five for the first official weekend of summer. The nature doc grabbed $1.45M on its second Friday and is targeting $5.81M and a new 12-day cume of $23.47M by Monday.

The other wide release is the 3-D pic Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions). It is on just over 1,100 screens, but has managed only about $300,000 on opening day. I did see a commercial for Terra during American Idol this week, so there was some money spent, but it couldn’t have been much. Despite respectable reviews, this cg animated flick is destined for no more than $1M. That’s a full-on disaster.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $34.75M, $8,478 PTA, $34.75M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $6M, $1,890 PTA, $6M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $4.2M, $1,671 PTA, $39M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $2.22M, $682 PTA, $44.36M cume
5. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.7M, $836 PTA, $14.2M cume
6. Earth (Disney) – $1.45M, $804 PTA, $19.11M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.41M, $537 PTA, $178M cume
8. Fighting (Rogue) – $1.4M, $608 PTA, $14.73M cume
9. State of Play (Universal) – $1.28M, $527 PTA, $28.51M cume
10. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $1.1M, $390 PTA, $67.88M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – $300,000, $258 PTA, $300,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $86.8M, $21,194 PTA, $86.8M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $16.5M, $5,197 PTA, $16.5M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $12.39M, $4,928 PTA, $47.19M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $6.62M, $2,034 PTA, $48.76M cume
5. Earth (Disney) – $5.81M, $3,221 PTA, $23.47M cume
6. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.7M, $2,804 PTA, $18.2M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.65M, $2,152 PTA, $182.25M cume
8. State of Play (Universal) – $4.31M, $1,765 PTA, $31.54M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $3.96M, $1,405 PTA, $70.74M cume
10. Fighting (Rogue) – $3.76M, $1,630 PTA, $17.1M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – $1M, $878 PTA, $1M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Look at these numbers.

X-Men – estimated budget – $75M
$20.8M opening day – $54.5M opening weekend – $152.3M domestic – $296.3M global

X-2: X-Men United – estimated budget – $110M
$31.25M opening day – $85.5M opening weekend – $214.9M domestic – $407.7M global

X-Men: The Last Stand – estimated budget – $210M
$45.1M opening day – $102.7M opening weekend – $224.4M domestic – $459.3M global

It’s pretty clear that, with no cost-containment on budget (especially the big cast), the X-Men franchise had reached the point of diminishing returns. So, X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox), debuting Friday, is a sequel, but, technically, a spin-off, without costing as much as a true sequel would.

A very different Hugh Jackman won the Tony for Best Actor for his performance in Broadway's BOY FROM OZ

I’m guessing that Hugh Jackman is working for a great price, also serving as a producer with a healthy backend participation. The rest of the name cast is essentially limited to Liev Schrieber (The Manchurian Candidate, The Omen), Dominic Monaghan (The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, ABC’s Lost) and Ryan Reynolds (Blade: Trinity, The Amityville Horror), and there is no Bryan Singer (X-Men, X-2) or Brett Ratner (X-Men 3) to direct. Instead, Fox and Jackman settled on the much less expensive, but still Academy Award-winning director Gavin Hood (Tsotsi). Now with a scaled-back story and cast, the movie comes in at a much more studio-friendly price while, hopefully, still packing an X-Men-style box office punch.

Aussie director Gavin Hood accepting his Oscar for TSOTSI

Fox has smartly positioned Wolverine as the first movie into the summer fray, and that is important because this is the one May huge release that may not have long legs (I believe that J.J. Abrams’ Star Trek will squash it like a bug on the all-new Enterprise windshield next week). I am told that pre-release industry tracking is in the stratosphere for this X-Men spin-off – Un-Aided Awareness, Total Awareness, Definite Interest and First Choice are all through the roof. When the tracking data gets this heated, predictions are dicey at best, but I am calling for $92M domestic. That would be just a tick lower than last year’s first-weekend-of-May starter Iron Man, which was $98.6M.

Without claws: Hugh Jackman as host of the 2009 Academy Awards

For those of you who may be reading my column for the first time, that $92M figure is my “prediction.” That means that based on my experience, conversations with sources at competing studios and interpretation of pre-release industry tracking, I am making a well-educated guess as to how X-Men Origins: Wolverine will deliver in opening weekend US sales. (The road is littered with other well-educated guessers, and I have missed substantially on a few predictions in the past.)

When I start writing on Friday, it will be based on early ticket sales. That will make my numbers “projections” instead of “predictions.” My Early Friday and 3-Day “projections” are historically off by no more than 5%-8%.

For the record, I believe that Mr. Jackman and the folks at Fox will be quite happy with anything north of $80M, but they are definitely working to keep expectations lower. In the end, I think they’ll be in the $90M-$95M range for 3-days.

Over the long haul, WOLVERINE will be no match for last year's IRON MAN

Ultimately, Iron Man performed like a monster deep into the summer. It was followed by the box office misfire Speed Racer on the following Friday, giving the Jon Favreau-directed comic book adaptation basically 17 days alone in the marketplace. Wolverine doesn’t have that luxury with the aforementioned Star Trek, arriving next Thursday starting at 7pm.

Additionally, Iron Man was jet-powered by spectacular reviews (93% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes)
and excellent word-of-mouth. It’ll be more of a mixed bag for X-Men Origins: Wolverine, standing at 41% Fresh on RT as of Wednesday night. The multiplier for Iron Man was 3.22 (the number by which you multiply the opening weekend figure by to arrive at the ultimate domestic gross). Wolverine is more likely to finish with a multiplier of 1.8-1.9. If the picture hits my opening weekend number, that multiplier will put the final US total at something in the $165M-$175M range.

In addition to my final weekend prediction, I also believe that Wolverine may scratch and claw its way to one of the top five or six opening days ever for a comic book movie. That could make it the 2nd-biggest opening day ever for a film from the X-Men franchise, trailing only the first day for X-Men 3.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENING DAYS FOR COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS
1. The Dark Knight – $67.1M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $59.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand – $45.1M
4. Spider-Man 2 – $40.4M
5. Spider-Man – $39.4M
6. Iron Man – $35.2M
7. X-2: X-Men United – $31.25M
8. Watchmen – $24.5M
9. Hulk – $24.2M
10. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer – $22M

There is always room for an inspired piece of counter-programming, and Warner Bros is apparently executing just that. The Matthew McConaughey-Jennifer Garner-Michael Douglas rom-com Ghosts of Girlfriends Past could reach a very solid $18M by appealing to Females 25 Plus.

The only other wide release is Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Atttractions), a sci-fi 3-D release unluckily sandwiched between Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) and Pixar’s Up (Disney) on the 3-D release schedule. Despite essentially decent early reviews (70% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), Terra will not be putting up much of a Battle. The 3-D screen count will be low, and there has been no real marketing money spent on getting this one launched. I’m predicting about $3.4M, which might be enough to “sneak it” into the top twelve for the frame.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF MAY 1-3
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $92M
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $18M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $10.2M
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $6.5M
5. Earth (Disney) – $5.6M
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.5M
7. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5M
8. State of Play (Universal) – $4.3M
9. Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $3.9M
10. Fighting (Rogue) – $3.8M
11. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $3.5M
12. NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate) – $3.4M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Beyonce does battle with the sexy Ali Larter (HEROES) in OBSESSED

OPENINGS FOR BEYONCE MOVIES
1. Austin Powers: Goldmember – $70.3M opening
2. Obsessed – $27.5M opening (projected)
3. Pink Panther (2006) – $20.2M opening
4. Dreamgirls – $14.1M wide break (after a platform start)
5. The Fighting Temptations – $11.7M opening
6. Cadillac Records – $3.4M opening

Now a million-selling solo artist with ubiquitous hits like Irreplaceable and Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It), she is beginning to cash in at the box office. She parlayed supporting roles in Mike Myers Austin Powers: Goldmember and Steve Martin’s Pink Panther into the showy Deena Jones role in the film adaptation of Dreamgirls, which topped $100M domestic (although the most of the awards hardware was ultimately taken home by Jennifer Hudson, winning Best Supporting Actress at both the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards). Beyonce received generally good notices for her turn as Etta James in Cadillac Records in December, although the movie was a box office dud with just $8.2M domestic. Now she has managed a surprise hit on her own with Obsessed.

By all accounts the movie is not very good. Sony didn’t screen it for critics, and the early reviews trickling in decidedly negative (25% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). Perhaps the excellent Pete Hammond from Hollywood.com sums it up best saying, “It’s strictly a generic thriller, perhaps the 105th blatant rip-off of Fatal Attraction, but not without its own guilty pleasures.” My hunch is that there is some trashy fun here with a “girl-on-girl smackdown” (Geoff Berkshire’s words from his review on Metromix.com), and the other girl is the stunning Ali Larter from NBC’s Heroes. Still when all is said and done, Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine (Fox) and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) starring Matthew McConaughey, both due next Friday, are certain to make Obsessed a one-week wonder, and it may get a speeding ticket on its way to home video.

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE kicks off the summer next Friday

Even if Beyonce’s “movie legs” aren’t as long as her real (and shapely) legs, Obsessed has set a new opening record for the last weekend of April, traditionally a studio dumping ground for schlock and tough-to-sell movies.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS ON LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL
1. Obsessed (2009) – $27.5M (projected)
2. Mean Girls (2004) – $24.4M
3. Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Universe (2005) – $21.1M
4. Baby Mama (2008) – $17.4M
5. RV (2006) – $16.4M
6. Identity (2003) – $16.2M
7. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay (2008) – $14.9M
8. XXX: State of the Union (2005) – $12.7M
9. Driven (2001) – $12.1M
10. United 93 (2006) – $11.5M

Former A&F model Channing Tatum is flexing his box office muscle this weekend in FIGHTING

Aside from the monstrous upside surprise for Obsessed, the strong performance of Fighting (Rogue) ranks as the biggest box office upset of the weekend. This Channing Tatum vehicle from his A Guide To Recognizing Your Saints director Dito Montiel didn’t seem to have much traction in pre-release audience tracking, but the PG-13 street fighting yarn has actually delivered the second-best Friday gross with about $4.46M. It will be pretty front-loaded, but should still reach a better-than-expected $12M by Monday, enough for second-place.

Zac Efron is proving to be a little less durable among the teen and pre-teen set than I would have thought. 17 Again (Warner Bros), also starring Matthew Perry and Mrs. Judd Apatow (Leslie Mann) has delivered a second Friday in the $3.85M range. The weekend could hit $10.83M or so, second for the 3-day, for a new 10-day cume of $39.13M, but that represents a deeper-than-expected 54% drop.

Next comes the long-delayed Robert Downey Jr./Jamie Foxx project The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount). Originally slated for December with hopes of a Best Actor nomination for Downey, Jr., the Joe Wright-directed tearjerker was first moved to March before settling into this unfriendly last weekend of April slot. Reviews are respectable (61% Fresh on RT) and Downey, Jr. and Foxx both have real drawing power. At just over 2,000 playdates, the movie has managed a tuneful $3.43M (#4 for the day) to start the frame, and opening weekend could reach $10.29M, good for fourth place. The 25 Plus appeal, especially with women, gives this one a chance to do respectable business over the next couple of weekends as counter-programming to the first few summer blockbusters.

A Great White Shark lunging out of the ocean to snatch a seal in Disney's EARTH

Rounding out the top five, and a bit of a disappointment, is Earth (Disney). The studio’s calculated use of Earth Day to release its Cliffs Notes version of the BBC miniseries Planet Earth has, however, paid some dividends. The 11-hour miniseries has been boiled down to the cutest and scariest animals along with the most fascinating images and picturesque landscapes in a tight 90-minute package, and the re-purposed result generated just over $4M for Wednesday’s Earth Day celebration, adding another $1.6M or so on Thursday. Now the nature doc, which is running at 83% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, has slumped to an estimated $2.9M in Friday sales. It will play big with family audiences on Saturday and Sunday (the kids will be unable to resist baby polar bears sliding down a snowy arctic slope), but I am penciling in Earth for a 3-day of only $10M. That still gives it the biggest 3-day opening ever for a nature doc, although this is also the widest opening ever for a movie of this type.

ALL-TIME TOP 3-DAY OPENINGS FOR NATURE DOCS
- total domestic cumes included -
1. Earth – $9.39M (projected)
2. March of the Penguins – $7.1M opening – $77.4M cume
3. Two Brothers – $6.1M opening – $19.1M cume
4. Winged Migration – $470,000 biggest weekend – $10.7M cume
5. Arctic Tale -  $207,000 opening – $830,000 cume

2004’s Two Brothers, a story of tiger cubs from director Jean-Jacques Annaud, was a wide release like Earth, but the other 3 films listed above were platformed. Disney’s abridged version of Planet Earth has no chance of reaching the staggering success of 2005’s March of the Penguins, but Earth could get to the $30M range even with summer’s biggest guns blazing starting next Friday.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $11M, $4,375 PTA, $11M cume
2. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $4.46M, $1,932 PTA, $4.46M cume
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $3.85M, $1,183 PTA, $32.15M cume
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.2M, $1,581 PTA, $3.2M cume
5. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $2.9M, $1,608 PTA, $8.54M cume
6. State of Play (Universal) – $2.08M, $741 PTA, $20.31M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.05M, $579 PTA, $168.34M cume
8. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $1.93M, $541 PTA, $141.09M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $1.77M, $548 PTA, $60.98M cume
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $850,000, $382 PTA, $9.96M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $27.5M, $10,939 PTA, $27.5M cume
2. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $12M, $5,197 PTA, $12M cume
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $10.83M, $3,327 PTA, $39.13M
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $10.29M, $5,084 PTA, $10.29M cume
5. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $10M, $5,543 PTA, $15.64M cume
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.5M, $2,531 PTA, $174.79M cume
7. State of Play (Universal) – $7.1M, $2,529 PTA, $25.33M cume
8. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $6.65M, $2,058 PTA, $65.86M cume
9. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $5.79M, $1,625 PTA, $144.95M cume
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $2.8M, $1,259 PTA, $11.91M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.