The music by Bear McCreary (Battlestar Galactica, The Walking Dead) evoked a cinematic air in the James Bond/Indiana Jones mold, but with an underlying somberness that lent a pleasing heft to the proceedings:

Actors Mark Valley, Chi McBride, and Jackie Earle Haley all shine in their roles for various reasons — especially Haley, whose delicious politically incorrect performance as Guerrero is the most consistently entertaining tough guy I’ve seen on TV since Michael K. Williams’ Robin Hood-of-the-ghetto Omar in HBO’s The Wire (a show that ended up ruined by its nihilistic writers, but that’s a topic for another post).

But later, settling in to begin watching Season 2 of Human Target on my computer, I wondered if Fox could bring a fledgling action/adventure series into its sophomore year without their usual pattern of first screwing it up and then unceremoniously canceling it. The sad spectacle of Big Hollywood regular Adam Baldwin’s Firefly getting canned before it even had a chance to get started was the most lamentable flameout of many at that often hapless network. Sure, they gave us The X-Files, but that was a looooong time ago. They also gave us 24, but I go against the usual conservative meme by thinking the show terrible. Human Target, on the other hand, held a lot of promise — but would they be able to capitalize on it?

At first, things looked good. The opening episode of Season 2 rocked, most memorably in the startling scene when Jackie Earle Haley cold-cocks a skinny little waif in a thunderous recapitulation of his character’s essential Sam Spade ethic of never playing the sap for anybody. But by the end of the hour, it became clear that some horrendous changes were in the making. Not one but two ladies were added to the permanent weekly roster alongside the three guys — and as the second episode progressed it became clear that both were firmly stuck in the sad realm of hoary Hollywood feminist cliché. In scene after tiresome scene, both characters repeatedly dissipated every attempt at recapturing the sleek, blistering, cat-and-mouse action of the first season.

Now, whenever Jackie Earle Haley begins to quietly infuse a scene with menace, threatening to put some industrial-grade hurt on the bad guys, the same skinny little waif he cold-cocked earlier leaps in uninvited, ruins his plans, and (totally out of character for Haley’s Guerrero) is allowed to skip away without repercussion. And now, whenever the formidable assassin/cop tandem of Mark Valley and Chi McBride put one of their brutal but effective tough-love plans into motion to help a client, the other new woman (who has become the team’s boss in another of Hollywood’s painfully tired and overused feminist-fantasy plot twists) incessantly questions the heroes’ motives and actions like a harried mother chastising her bratty kids.

What a disaster. In place of the excellent female characters that wove their way in and out of the first season — Emmanuelle Vaugier’s game FBI agent, Kristin Lehman’s mobster’s daughter turned district attorney, Autumn Reeser’s spunky computer hacker, Leonor Varela’s South American guerrilla spitfire, Grace Park’s icy oddsmaker, Moon Bloodgood’s Alaskan doctor — we now have two regulars who offer nothing to the existing team except whining, complaining, nagging, bitching, moaning, and (in the case of the new boss) passive-aggressively yapping out crisp, rude orders in between bouts of mewling “Maybe I can’t handle this.”

You would think that in this day and age, hip Hollywood writers would avoid that most catastrophic of clichés, the hectoring female sidekick. The difference between Season 1 and Season 2 of Human Target is like the difference between Raiders of the Lost Ark’s Marion Ravenwood and Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom’s Willie Scott. As scene after mind-numbing scene degenerates into domesticated, needy, hyper-emotional neuroticism, what used to be a blissful escape from reality now feels like just another hour at work, class, or home.

Another demerit against the second season is the absence of composer Bear McCreary, whose cinematic orchestral effusions have been replaced by a techno score (punctuated by the use of contemporary pop tunes like Outkast’s “Hey Ya!”) indistinguishable from any number of other insipid modern television series. They didn’t even keep the show’s main theme, choosing instead a faux rock style for the opening credits:

Doing some research, I discovered that Human Target’s showrunner, Jonathan E. Steinberg, was dumped after Season 1 and replaced by Matt Miller. Miller hails from NBC’s Chuck, another show that started out with lots of promise before largely degenerating into a series of exhausted “will she?/won’t he?” scenes of manufactured romantic drama unworthy of a soap opera, much less a pleasantly goofy spy satire. I note that Chuck also features a harridan-as-boss dictatorially snapping out rude orders from her booster chair in the Pentagon (actress Bonita Friedericy is 5’3’’).

ZAP2It’s “TV By the Numbers” blog reports that, given the declining ratings ever since these terrible moves were made, Human Target is now “certain to be cancelled.” If so, it will be a mercy killing. I fear that conservatives won’t get the TV shows they want until technology allows for Hollywood-quality programming to be made and streamed online completely independent of the big studios and their advertisers. It is then that we’ll see shows like Human Target continue on in their original alluring vein rather than succumb to death by a thousand perfume inhalations.

Various TV networks occasionally try their hand at reviving this tradition, and the time is probably ripe for it given the ability of CGI effects which cut the costs of filming action scenes. The new Fox show Human Target (Wednesdays, 8 p.m. EDT) is one of the best attempts thus far.

Based on a DC comics character, the show chronicles the adventures of Christopher Chance (Mark Valley), a professional short-term bodyguard who protects people from specific threats. Chance looks to be in his mid to late thirties and is very smart, experienced, resourceful, courageous, and skilled at all sorts of combat. He is also very personable and sympathetic toward others.

He’s even sympathetic to the villains who commit the crimes. In episode 2, “Rewind,” for example, he offers a job and a new life to a woman who has helped arrange the abduction of a computer software developer. His concern for characters’ personal redemption adds to the interest of the series beyond the spectacular, suspenseful action elements.

In sum, in his skills and personal character, Chance is about as close to perfect as people get. However, the narratives also make it clear that he has done something highly reprehensible in his past for which he is striving hard to make up. Even that, however, represents an appealing characteristic: he’s clearly not in it for the money or the thrills. Instead, it’s quite evident that Chance really wants to use his unique skills in ways that help people in distress.

Thus, although the show does heed the contemporary rule of giving every good character a dark side, its emphasis on Chance’s habitual benevolence is quite refreshing.

Chance’s desire to renounce his shady past and find and develop the basic goodness within him lends the character complexity, as does his bantering relationships with his two coworkers, Winston and Guerrero. Square-jawed Mark Valley, a West Point grad, does a good job of making the character convincing: he looks the part and his easy-going, jokey personality keeps the viewer from thinking too deeply about the incredible situations and astonishingly inventive and implausible action sequences.

The jobs Chance takes on typically end up leading to some potential catastrophe that threatens to kill not only the intended target but also numerous innocents. Preventing these disasters requires Chance to show great ingenuity and bravery, and it also calls on a serious talent for improvisation.

The dramatic situations Chance and his charges get into—a runaway bullet train, a passenger jet disabled in mid-air, a monestary about to be blown up, etc.—are so dire and spectacular as to be risible to anyone whose critical faculties are functioning, but the stories move along rapidly and enjoyably enough to avert that particular disaster. They’re good fun and provide occasions for real moral choices by both Chance and others, including the villains.

Chi McBride and Jackie Earle Haley are excellent as Chance’s boss (Winston) and computer expert colleague (Guerrero). Winston serves as business manager and nominal team leader, and also as the Cassandra character, warning Chance when he fears the latter is risking life, limb, or profitability. McBride’s formidable physical presence makes his worried nature that much more amusing.

Guerrero, played superbly by Haley (Watchmen), is the truly reckless one in the team, and is the most openly contemptuous of authority and the government. He’s an interesting character, sort of a hacker-style libertarian with a refreshingly cynical, amusingly politically incorrect attitude. He’s the type of person you want on your side even though you can’t really manage him and aren’t sure what his real agenda is. He’s that brilliant.

In all, Human Target does an excellent job of recapturing that mid-’60s adventure spirit, with the same optimism, can-do attitude, and sympathy for the underdog that characterized those shows. If you enjoy 1960s-style action-adventures, you’ll get a kick out of Human Target. If you don’t enjoy this sort of thing, evidently you’re in need of a rescue yourself.

In order for this kind of twist to work, however, a film must accomplish two things. First, the story shouldn’t require the twist in order for it to be successful. What precedes the twist should be stand-alone compelling – a good movie all on its own.  Second, the twist should make you want to see the film again, and as soon as possible, because now what came before takes on an entirely new dimension that requires another viewing to truly savor.

And this is where “Shutter Island” fails. *SPOILERS COMING*

The two hours or so to director Martin Scorsese’s Big Reveal is a long haul, especially after you lose all interest after the first thirty-minutes due to a narrative that never gels or grabs hold. The acting is fine and the look of the atmospheric production is top-notch in that foreboding kind of way (aided by Bernard Hermann-esque flourishes in the score). But the mystery of an escaped patient on a big spooky island simply isn’t all that compelling. Nothing makes much sense once the second act really gets going, and while the Big Twist does work in explaining what came before, the thought of reliving two muddled unfocused hours was the furthest thing from my mind.  

The year is 1954 and U.S. Marshall Teddy Daniels (Leonardo DiCaprio) and his new partner Chuck Aule (an always excellent and interesting Mark Ruffalo) are on a ferry headed for Shutter Island, an island with one tenant: a hospital for the most violently insane criminals in the country. Rachel, an inmate/patient who murdered her children, has somehow managed to elude being caught after an escape from her cell that required either help from someone on the inside or magic.

The institution is run by Dr. Cawley (Ben Kingsley) and Dr. Naehring (Max Von Sydow), two imposing figures who talk a good game about their advancements in treating the insane with humane, modern methods. But it doesn’t take long before Teddy (and we) have our doubts about the doctors’ sincerity. The two men appear to hold as many dark and sinister secrets as the large mysterious island they enjoy total control over with little to no outside interference or oversight.

Sure, there’s a mystery, but there’s also all kinds of red herrings that hurt the narrative because they are so obviously red herrings and therefore serve only to frustrate rather than surprise. As the scenes tick by, characters increasingly behave in ways that make no sense and a series of regular flashbacks that are beautifully realized are unfortunately more successful at killing story momentum than rounding out Teddy’s emotional life. Teddy fought in WWII and is still haunted by the inhumanity he saw firsthand after liberating Dachau, a Nazi concentration camp. He also lost his beloved wife not too long ago in an apartment fire. Both experiences continue to come back to haunt his day and night time dreams.

DiCaprio’s performance improves significantly as the story rolls on. His eternal baby face under a fedora is a distraction at first (Ruffalo looks fantastic in his fedora), but the personal journey Teddy’s forced to endure allows the actor to eventually stop play-acting as a tough guy cop and move into the more comfortable arena of emotionally-driven scenes where he’s 100% believable and even quite moving at times. His last line’s a killer – the whole ballgame – and DiCaprio knocks it out of the park.

Rounding out an already impressive cast is a terrific group of welcome actors in smaller (sometimes a single scene) but pivotal roles: Elias Koteas, Jackie Earle Haley, Patricia Clarkson, Ted Levine and Emily Mortimer. For my money, I would’ve preferred DiCaprio and Ruffalo switched roles, but the actors are the least of the film’s problems.

At 100 minutes as opposed to 140, “Shutter Island” would improve greatly. If the DVD directors cut looks like that, a second look might be worth the time. But no matter how solid the acting, impressive the production design and predigree’d the director, everything comes down to story and this one quickly falls under the weight of its own runtime, lack of tension and the need of salvation in the form of The Big Twist.

“The Bad News Bears” is subversive from the start, its characters realistic and flawed. Of course, the engine driving this train is the late Walter Matthau, whose  Buttermaker was hired to coach a team of misfits who are so bad at baseball they’re only in the elite league because one the parents sued the league. Most of the Bears’ parents are conspicuously absent at practices and are rarely heard or seen at games. Leaving them out of the movie is a stroke of genius – we’re constantly wondering why one of them didn’t step up to coach the team.

The subversive nature of the movie is exemplified in a performance from the late Vic Morrow. As Roy Turner, the coach of the Yankees, he is openly hostile toward Buttermaker and the Bears in general. While his hostility is certainly not commendable, it comes from an honest source: the Bears have no business in this top-notch league, and there are plenty of leagues where the Bears could have played. “Why did Whitewood [the lawyer who sued to get the Bears (read: his son) into the league] choose my league?” Turner seems to be asking throughout the movie. Cementing the Bears’ outcast status is the fact that every other team in the league is named for a Major League one. I love the moment in the first game when one of the Yankee players hits a home run off of the perpetually wild Rudy Stein. Coach Turner applauds, takes off his cap, wipes his brow, and most tellingly, breathes a sigh of relief. Without a single word, we realize how important the league is to him. Over the course of the movie, we learn of course that it’s too important.

After a humiliating season-opening 26 to zip loss at the hands of the Yankees,  most of the team wants to quit. And so does Whitewood. But Buttermaker, for some reason, sees this gig as a potentially redemptive moment for him, and unlike a million times in the past, he decides to stick it out.

As for the other characters, the movie is a demonstration in how to craft three-dimensional personalities regardless of screen time. Director Michael Ritchie, working from a dynamite script by Bill Lancaster (Burt’s son), crafts an economical, fast-moving story where each character has a big moment. There’s the Muslim Ahmad, desperate to equal his brothers’ athletic feats; there’s the fat kid Engelberg (this movie INVENTED that cliché), who turns out to be a pretty good hitter; there’s the little hot-head, Tanner, unafraid of anything; there’s Jackie Earle Haley’s Kelly Leak, the smoking, cussing, motorcycle riding bad boy ringer who really just needs a hug – which is not cheesy at all because not once does another warm and fuzzy character say he only needs a hug.

A clever subplot is that Amanda Whurlitzer (dude, the characters’ names are even awesome) is actually the daughter of Buttermaker’s ex-girlfriend and the all-around symbol of his failures as a human being. Besides the Ted Williams strikeout, Buttermaker’s other claim to fame is teaching Amanda how to throw a wicked curveball, of which he says, “It’s like a scoop of ice cream, it comes up to the plate and just disappears.”

Of course, the movie comes down to the big game, and Buttermaker’s been bitten by the win-at-any-cost bug.  He finds out that he’s no better than Roy Turner, who  commits a shocking and inexcusable act in the finale (though, as it turns out, Turner really ain’t that bad of a guy). This moment aside, Roy Turner is right, at least at the beginning of the movie – why should the league lower their standards to satisfy a do-gooder City Councilman? He never meddles or cheats, he just coaches his boys.  And in Coach Buttermaker, the Bears learn that their standards should be raised, that they shouldn’t accept losing, and that winning only comes when you do your best.

Last year Miramax released “Doubt,” a high-profile piece of Oscar-bait starring Academy Award winners’ Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman. Streep plays a puritanical nun on a moral crusade to expose a Priest (Hoffman) who she believes is sexually abusing a 12 year-old boy. Both characters are portrayed as unsympathetic (especially Streep’s) but in just a couple scenes the boy’s working-class mother (Mrs. Miller, played by Viola Davis) is established as the moral center of the film – the only one truly interested in the welfare of her child. When Mrs. Miller’s informed that her son’s being molested, the Moral Center Of The Film responds that her 12 year-old boy is gay, a social outcast, and beaten regularly by his homophobic father … so maybe the best option for him is a sexual relationship with a forty-something child predator.

Starring Aaron Eckhart, Maria Bello, and written and directed by Oscar-winner Alan Ball, last year’s “Towelhead” is a film Roman Polanski might have seen many, many times while wearing a rain coat. The protagonist is 13 year-old Jasira (played by the then barely eighteen Summer Bishil) and the story surrounds her sexual abuse at the hands of a number of men, including Eckhart’s Gulf War Vet. Rather than the repeated abuse damaging the young girl, the filmmaker portrays the rapes and molestations as a healthy and sexually liberating experience. More than once the audience is “treated” to lingering shots of Jasira’s bare legs as she discovers the joys of the orgasm while masturbating to photographs of naked women.

Kate Winslet won last year’s Best Actress Oscar for her role in “The Reader,” in which she plays a “sympathetic” Nazi guilty of mass murder who seduces and then engages in a steamy sexual affair with a 15 year-old boy. The sex scenes between this mature woman and a child lean heavily on the erotic, as opposed to the creepy. (The “sympathetic Nazi” issue we’ll save for another post.)

Yes, in just one year, Hollywood released three films that in one way or another portrayed sex with children as potentially healthy or their molester as sympathetic. And these aren’t fringe, indie films either. All three involve name stars and Oscar winners.

Unfortunately, this is not a conspiracy. Hollywood deviants never gathered together to plan for a slate of films aimed at a drip-drip campaign designed to dull our moral outrage towards the most heinous crime imaginable. It’s worse than that. We’re up against a culture; the same culture that can’t quite grasp why a child rapist should have to serve prison time for a crime he’s confessed to.

And this is how cinematic propaganda works. Whether the filmmaker’s motivations are good or evil, the idea is to get decent and thoughtful people to start second guessing themselves as they’re enveloped in the dark and held captive by the powerful sound and fury of the moving picture. First we’re led to identify and sympathize with a particular character, then that character does something designed to challenge our belief structure. This can range from, “If John Wayne opposes racism, maybe I should,” to, “Well, if a loving mother is okay with it, maybe I need to get a little more nuanced and tolerant about this whole child-rape thing.”

On its face, that may sound laughable, and maybe it is, but that doesn’t mean our eyes are lying to us. Last year merely topped off a campaign targeted at our children that began some time ago.

In 2006’s “Notes on a Scandal,” Academy Award winner Cate Blanchett plays a school teacher engaged in a steamy sexual affair with one of her students. Like “The Reader,” the sex scenes between a mature woman and her student strive for the erotic and never once does the story stop to examine how such a destructive affair might psychologically affect a teen-aged boy. That same year, in “Little Children,” Jackie Earle Haley was Oscar-nominated for his support work as a molester just released from prison who’s the victim of that favorite Hollywood whipping boy, suburban hypocrisy. Just two years earlier, Kevin Bacon’s heroic molester in “The Woodsman” not only saves the day and wins the pretty girl, but in his valiant struggle to “reform” he’s presented as a kind of “civil rights” metaphor as policemen and “intolerant” co-workers torment him.

The award for Most Unsettling, however, must go to 2004’s “Birth,” where Academy Award winner Nicole Kidman stars as a widow convinced her dead husband has returned in the form of a 10 year-old boy. If watching a near-forty year-old woman exchange longing looks with a little kid isn’t creepy enough, wait till they end up naked in a bathtub together.

Whether it’s true or not that seventy-five years ago Clark Gable nearly bankrupted the t-shirt industry by not wearing one in “It Happened One Night,” what is true is that billions of dollars are spent annually by advertisers convinced sound and images can alter behavior. You’d have to be a fool to make an argument against the persuasive powers of moving images, but those fools do exist. Most of them are liars.

The Hollywood Left is many things but they’re not fools and they fully understand the power of the medium under their control. Certainly, damning everyone who works in the entertainment world would be unfair, but this is also a culture where only a handful of “names” were willing to speak out against the pro-Polanski movement – including many Leftists who have never been shy about speaking out in the past.

The film industry has a history to be proud of when it comes to opposing racism, homophobia and anti-Semitism. Unfortunately, the most vocal from this current crop seem all too ready to tarnish that legacy as they target our children for profit and worse.

Is it too much to ask of the Hollywood Left that they show as much intolerance towards the sexualization of young children as they do towards conservatives and Christians?

That question has already been answered.

Jordana Brewster is reunited with Vin, Paul and Michelle in FAST & FURIOUS

Universal seems to have answered that question by getting its successful street racing franchise back into the fast lane this weekend with Fast & Furious. The movie, which reunites Vin Diesel, Paul Walker, Jordana Brewster and Michelle Rodriguez for the first time since 2001’s original surprise blockbuster, has exploded to a high octane $30.11M or so on Friday and that could mean a $70M opening weekend. That would make it the all-time #1 opening for a car racing movie.

Pixar's beloved CARS will likely have only the second-best opening for an auto racing movie by Monday

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR AUTO RACING MOVIES
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $70M opening (projected)
2. Cars – $60.1M opening
3. 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003) – $50.4M opening
4. Talladega Nights – $47M opening
5. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $40M opening
6. The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift (2006) – $24M opening
7. Speed Racer – $18.5M opening
8. Days of Thunder – $15.5M opening
9. Herbie: Fully Loaded – $12.7M opening
10. Death Race – $12.6M opening

How big is that $30.11M opening day? It is the all-time biggest debut gross for any movie not released in the summer peak (May – July) and the November-December holiday period.

ALL-TIME BIGGEST OPENING DAYS FOR NON-PEAK RELEASES
- non-peak is defined as May thru July & November-December -
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $30.11M opening day (estimated)
2. 300 – $28.1M opening day
3. Passion of the Christ – $26.5M opening day
4. Watchmen – $24.5M opening day
5. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $21.7M opening day

The Fast franchise has an odd history. 2001’s The Fast & The Furious scored a blistering $40M opening weekend and reached $144.5M domestic and over $200M worldwide. Then the enigmatic Diesel decided that he didn’t like the script for the proposed sequel. Boyz n the Hood’s John Singleton took the reigns from Rob Cohen and Walker returned for 2 Fast 2 Furious, which still scorted an impressive $127M in the US sans Diesel. Then in 2006, Universal rebooted without Diesel or Walker with The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift, and the fan base eroded considerably as the poorly-received movie generated only $62.5M after a sluggish $23.9M 3-day start.

Now, the original cast returns with Tokyo Drift director Justin Lin at the helm, and those Under 25 Males are showing up (dragging their girlfriends no doubt), and the reaction across the social networking platform Twitter is very telling. The first thing I noticed. Lots of sellouts and long lines.

• damn fast and furious full till 11
• Standing in line for Fast and Furious earlier show was sold out. I so hope it is worth this.
• Didn’t realize fast and furious would do so much business.
• Just saw Fast & Furious. It was crazazy. The theater was packed and every show was sold out. I loved it!
• Waiting in line to see Fast and Furious. Really long line!
• too many people watching fast and furious tonight!
• is watching monsters vs. aliens, only because Fast and Furious was sold out. :/

As far as instant reaction from the Twitteratti, it seems roughly split 60% positive and 40% negative. Here are some “thumbs up” Tweets.

• Just hopped outta Fast and Furious. Forget 2 and 3, this was the real sequel. Better than you hope it’ll be, I promise.
• new fast and furious = AMAZING
• Fast and Furious 4… wow, what a movie! For boys, that is.
• Fast and Furious 4, great action movie. It’s as good as the first one. SpitBaby gives it 4 of 5 stars.
• Saw Fast and Furious tonight. It was pretty darn good! Lots of American Muscle.

Not everyone agrees however. Some are Twittering their disapproval.

• The ‘Fast and the Furious’ perfectly describes how I would leave that movie.
• just saw the new fast and furious.bad as expected.
• just got home from seeing FAST AND FURIOUS! IT SUCKED!!!
• Fast and Furious: Not bad, but I wouldn’t tell you to pay theatre $ to see it unless you’re a fan of the first movie. Too many jump cuts.
• Fast and Furious: worst movie ever.
• fast and furious was awful. whats the appeal? minus hot guys, crappy cars and chicks making out? no thanks

For Vin Diesel, this weekend’s opening is an all-time best, and you’ve got to wonder who gives him career advice. He walked away from the both 2 Fast 2 Furious and the sequel to the highly lucrative XXX (XXX:State of the Union was ultimately made with Ice Cube as the lead grossing just $26.8M domestic, but it would have certainly performed much better as a Diesel project).

ALL-TIME TOP 5 VIN DIESEL OPENINGS
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $70M opening (projected)
2. XXX – $44.5M opening
3. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $40M
4. The Pacifier – $30.5M opening
5. The Chronicles of Riddick – $24.3M opening

Meanwhile, thanks to the F&F hot wheels, Paul Walker has three $40M+ openings on his resume.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 PAUL WALKER OPENINGS
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $70M opening (projected)
2. 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003) – $50.4M opening
3. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $40M opening
4. Eight Below – $20.1M opening
5. She’s All That – $16M opening

MVA still a MONSTER at the box office - especially in 3-D

Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) continues to be a box office juggernaut as it begins its second weekend. The animated send-up of B-movie sci-fi from the 1950’s continues to be fueled by its 2,075 or so standard Digital 3-D engagements and the added 143 Digital IMAX runs scoring an exceedingly strong $8.9M on Friday, which will likely translate to an estimated $35.6M for the frame and a 10-day cume of almost $108M. That will represent an approximate weekend drop of just 40%, which is impressive given that the opening 3-day was $59.3M.

Possibly the creepiest movie poster ever

The Lionsgate genre pic The Haunting in Connecticut sold another $3.67M in tickets on its second Friday, and it should reach about $10.65M by Monday for a new cume of $38.47M. That would mean a drop of only 54%, very good for a horror flick.

Jason Segal unleashes the crazies on passerby on the Venice Boardwalk in I LOVE YOU, MAN

Meanwhile Knowing (Summit) and I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) will both spend another week in the top five. The Alex Proyas-directed Nicolas Cage vehicle managed $2.67M to start the 3-day, and Knowing may reach $8.69M by Monday. With a new cume of $58.76M, the gang at Summit has a shot to push this one just past $70M in the US. John Hamburg’s Apatow-style comedy with the inspired pairing of Paul Rudd and Jason Segal is also holding strong with an estimated $2.73M in tickets sold on Friday and a weekend target of $8.69M. I Love You, Man could reach $65M domestic before it wraps its theatrical engagements.

The news is not good for the well-reviewed Miramax release Adventureland. Despite a score of 89% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, Greg Mottola’s much-anticipated follow-up to Superbad has stumbled out of the gates with just $2.17M from 1,862 playdates. The weekend gross will likely be in the $6.05M range for a Per Theatre Average of just $3,249.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Fast & Furious (Universal) – $30.11M, $8,088 PTA, $28M cume
2. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.9M, $2,169 PTA, $81.09M cume
3. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $3.67M, $1,345 PTA, $31.36M cume
4. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.73M, $1,052 PTA, $44.17M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) – $2.67M, $805 PTA, $52.74M cume
6. NEW – Adventureland (Miramax) – $2.17M, $1,168 PTA, $2.17M cume
7. Duplicity (Universal) – $1.43M, $571 PTA, $29.5M cume
8. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $970,000, $343 PTA, $56M cume
9. 12 Rounds (Fox) – $850,000, $365 PTA, $7.57M cume
10. Sunshine Cleaning (Overture) – $580,000, $1,211 PTA, $4.05M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Fast & Furious (Universal) – $70M, $20,220 PTA, $70M cume
2. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $35.6M, $8,674 PTA, $107.79M cume
3. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $10.65M, $3,901 PTA, $38.34M cume
4. Knowing (Summit) – $8.69M, $2,616 PTA, $58.76M cume
5. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.69M, $3,342 PTA, $50.12M cume
6. NEW – Adventureland (Miramax) – $6.05M, $3,249 PTA, $6.05M cume
7. Duplicity (Universal) – $4.56M, $1,810 PTA, $32.63M cume
8. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $3.49M, $1,235 PTA, $58.52M cume
9. 12 Rounds (Fox) – $2.7M, $1,158 PTA, $9.42M cume
10. Sunshine Cleaning (Fox) – $2.03M, $4,238 PTA, $5.5M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

The original The Fast & The Furious hit theatres in 2001 under the direction of Rob Cohen who had shown a knack for action with Dragon: The Bruce Lee Story ($35M US cume) and Sly Stallone’s Daylight ($33M US cume) and a savvy feel for bigger-than-life characters in his Golden Globe winning biopic The Rat Pack (which, if you’ve never seen you should put in your Netflix cue and prepare to be amazed by Don Cheadle’s turn as Sammy Davis, Jr.). In tow, he had a 34-year-old Vin Diesel in only his second starring role following the surprise low budget hit Pitch Black ($39M cume) and 28-year-old Paul Walker, who had just starred in Cohen’s forgettable The Skulls. Also in the cast was Jordana Brewster (As the World Turns) and a pre-Lost Michelle Rodriguez, whose most notable credit was a gritty little indie called Girlfight.

Vin Diesel returns for FAST & FURIOUS

The result was box office jet fuel. Seemingly out of nowhere, The Fast & The Furious scored a scalding $40M opening weekend and reached $144.5M domestic and over $200M worldwide. But Diesel, whose signature line in the original movie is “I live my life one quarter of a mile at a time,” didn’t like the script for the sequel (or they wouldn’t pay his asking price depending on who you ask). That led to the 2003 sequel 2 Fast 2 Furious directed by Academy Award nominee John Singleton (Boyz n the Hood) starring Walker along with rapper Tyrese Gibson and Eva Mendes. Despite Diesel’s conspicuous absence, 2 Fast still delivered $127M in the US.

Two years later came the disastrous re-imagining of the franchise with The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift. No Diesel. No Walker. The movie featured Zachery Ty Bryan from TV’s Home Improvement and the very solid Lucas Black, who had just played quarterback Mike Winchell in the film version of Friday Night Lights and as a kid co-starred with Billy Bob Thornton in Sling Blade. The third movie in the franchise “drifted” toward irrelevancy with a very soft $23.9M opening and only $62.5M domestic.

Now, as The Blues Brothers once famously said, “We’re getting the band back together!” Diesel. Walker. The still beautiful Brewster. And, the edgy Rodriguez, who, ironically, has one of the worst driving records in history (a hit-and-run, 2 DUIs and at least 3 speeding tickets including one for 90mph in a 35mph zone). This time, they are under the direction of Tokyo Drift director Justin Lin, and the reviews are less than sparkling (18% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but there are some credible positive notices, including Kirk Honeycutt from the Hollywood Reporter who says, “All four films feature terrific stunts. But Fast & Furious is the first film since the original to be smart about how far to stretch logic without sacrificing the desired macho swagger and revved-up emotions.”

Diesel and Paul Walker - 8 years older

The average street racing fan is unlikely to be a Hollywood Reporter reader, and the PG-13 rating will allow for a flood of teen boys, who have grown up playing video games like Grand Theft Auto, to pour into theatres for some high octane fun. The tracking, especially Males Under 25, looks very strong, and my prediction is for $48M, but I won’t be surprised to see it speed past $50M.

Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) has been performing very well during the week, especially in those communities where kids are off for spring break. I’ll be surprised if MVA dips much more than 40% from its $59.3M opening frame. I’m predicting a $35.4M second weekend, which would mean a spectacular 10-day cume of about $106.7M.

With only two new, wide releases, The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) should hold up better-than-the-average horror movie. I am anticipating about $11.7M, which would mark only a 49% drop. With a new cume of about $40M by Monday, this low budget special will have made back its budget twice over before its done (not to mention ancillary rights).

Nicolas Cage in KNOWING

The latest from Nicolas Cage and directed by Alex Proyas (Dark City, I Robot), is nearing profitability as well. Knowing (Summit), with a reported budget of $50M, is likely to bank another $8.7M over the weekend for a new cume of almost $59M. It is opening decently in foreign markets including $5M+ in Russia.

Director Greg Mottola’s long-awaited follow-up to mega-hit Superbad ($121M US) is the much lower profile Adventureland from Miramax. The reviews are through the roof with an 85% Fresh rating from Rotten Tomatoes, and especially noteworthy is Kenneth Turan of the LA Times who writes, “With a cast that believed in one another and a writer-director who believed he didn’t have to follow up Superbad with SuperEvenBadder, Adventureland is the kind of adventure we could all use more of.”

This is the kind of movie that could surprise because of positive buzz, but with only 1,862 screens, it’s hard to generate an eye-popping number. I’m penciling Adventureland in for $8.1M, which would still be an impressive $4,350 Per Theatre Average.

Also continuing to perform well will be I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount), adding another $7.9M or so (a small drop in the 35%-40% range). It is possible that the John Hamburg buddy comedy could top $50M by Monday.

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR APRIL 3-5
1. NEW – Fast & Furious (Universal) – $48M
2. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $35.4M
3. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $11.7M
4. Knowing (Summit) – $8.6M
5. NEW – Adventureland (Miramax) -$8.1M
6. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $7.9M
7. Duplicity (Universal) – $4.9M
8. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $3.25M
9. 12 Rounds (Fox) – $2.3M
10. Taken (Fox) – $1.4M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

MONSTERS VS. ALIENS towers over previous 3-D releases from Hollywood

If that number holds, and, if anything, they could drift higher as family audiences flood America’s multiplexes, Monsters vs. Aliens will be the all-time third-best opening in the month of March.

Still the all-time March opening weekend champion

ALL-TIME TOP 5 MARCH OPENINGS
1. 300 – $70.8M opening
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $68M opening
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (2009) – $58M opening (projected estimate)
4. Watchmen – $55.2M opening
5. Ice Age – $46.3M opening

But this is more than a conventional 35MM movie. This kind of number sends a message to theatre owners, credit markets and other studios that the all-new Digital 3-D is here to stay. With 40+ major 3-D movies on the way to the marketplace, it was important for MVA to demonstrate the potential of this new technology.

Jeffrey Katzenberg, leading the 3-D charge for the industry

Yes, Dreamworks Animation head Jeffrey Katzenberg wanted more 3-D screens to be ready (he was hoping for at least 1,000 more), but this is a triumph.

As always, I am monitoring the Twitter-verse for instant reactions from movie-goers who have seen the film on opening day. It is very hard to find anyone with a negative reaction.

Kids and I just home from Monsters vs. Aliens 3-D version. WOW, 3-D has come a long way!

Imax + 3-D totally worth it just to watch your kid try to reach out and grab things in mid-air

Did Monsters vs. Alien in 3-D today with the family. My first 3-D movie at a theater, very cool we had a BLAST!

Monsters Vs. Aliens, 8 thumbs up from the family! Great job with the 3-D as well, not cheesy at all unlike 3D movies when I was a kid.

Saw Monsters vs. Aliens in 3-D today. Go see it. It’s freakin’ cool!

The 3-D glasses these days are cool–they look like sunglasses

LOVED LOVED LOVED Monsters vs. Aliens. Fun for grown ups and kids. And I still have the marks on my face from the 3-D glasses. Can you tell?

The 3-D version of Monsters vs. Aliens is presented in modern Digital 3-D. The original 3-D movies of the 1950’s like Bwana Devil, starring Robert Stack, were primitive, but became a sensation. That movie’s tagline was “A Lion in Your Lap, A Lover in Your Arms,” and it was presented using polarized images by Arch Oboler’s production company.

Then Oboler and a former US military 3-D mapmaker developed trioptiscope that allowed images to float off of the screen. They dubbed this Space-Vision, and it required the use of those infamous cardboard glasses with the red and green cellophane lenses. Oboler released a movie called The Bubble in the late 1960’s, which failed to catch on, and then it was renamed and re-released in 1976 as The Fantastic Invasion of Planet Earth. The modest success of the latter version of the movie led to a new generation of filmmakers trying their hand at 3-D. Along came Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D (1982), Jaws 3-D (1983) and Amityville Horror 3-D (1983). Same Space-Vision technology with cardboard glasses and loads of cheap gimmickry.

The monstrous opening weekend for Monsters vs. Aliens easily dwarfs previous 3-D releases including all-time champ Spy Kids 3-D from 2003 (in old-style Space-Vision).

ALL-TIME TOP 13 OPENINGS FOR 3-D MOVIES
- identified with year of release & type of 3-D –
1. Monsters vs. Aliens (2009 – Digital 3-D) – $58M opening (projected estimate)
2. Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over (2003 – Space-Vision 3-D) – $33.4M opening – $111.7M cume
3. Hannah Montana: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (2008 – Digital 3-D) – $31.1M opening – $65.2M cume
4. Beowulf (2007 – Digital 3-D) – $27.5M opening – $82.3M cume
5. Bolt (2008 – Digital 3-D) – $26.2M opening – $114M cume
6. The Polar Express (2004 – Digital 3-D) – $23.3M opening – $180.8M cume
7. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (2009 – Digital 3-D) – $21.2M opening – $51.5M cume
8. Journey To the Center of the Earth (2008 – Digital 3-D) – $21M opening – $101.7M cume
9. Coraline (2009 – Digital 3-D) – $16.8M opening – $73.6M cume
10. Jaws 3-D (1983 – Space-Vision 3-D) – $13.4M opening – $45.5M cume
11. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (2009 – Digital 3-D)- $12.5M opening – $19.1M cume
11. The Adventures of Sharkboy & Lava Girl 3-D (2005) – $12.5M opening – $39.1M cume
13. Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D (1982 – Space-Vision 3-D) – $9.4M opening – $36.7M cume

Based on an opening weekend of this magnitude, Monsters vs. Aliens will chart a course for $190M-$200M in the US. It is possible that it will exceed the $215M scored by last summer’s Kung Fu Panda, also from Dreamworks. The worldwide box office number may top $525M.

Lionsgate is proving that there is always room for a genre pic with a surprising upside surprise for The Haunting in Connecticut. With Oscar nominee Virginia Madsen (Sideways) as the only real name on the marquee, the low budget PG-13 scarefest scored a far-above-expectations $9.6M on opening day to kick off what should be a possible $22.9M weekend. (I would argue that the incredibly creepy poster is responsible for the surprisingly strong debut.)

Summit’s Knowing, directed by Alex Proyas and starring Nicolas Cage, has held up far better-than-expected. Last weekend’s champ added $4.6M on its second Friday, and its 3-day target is $14.4M, enough for third place. That would give the film a 10-day cume of $45.91M.

Jason Segal (left) and Paul Rudd in I LOVE YOU, MAN

The hilarious I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) will probably dip only 30% or so from its opening. The John Hamburg comedy delivered another $4M in ticket sales, and it is #4 and cruising toward a possible $12.2M by Monday morning for a new cume of $36.6M.

Bad news for Tony Gilroy’s Duplicity (Universal), starring Julia Roberts and Clive Owen. The adult comedy/mystery slumped to just $2.3M to start the frame, and it will manage only a fifth-place finish with $7.5M or so. That is a 47% drop and a new domestic take of just over $25M.

Meanwhile, pro wrestler-turned-actor John Cena and former superstar director Renny Harlin (Diehard 2, Cliffhanger) have launched 12 Rounds (Fox), which has failed to ignite much excitement. The action flick managed only a disastrous $1.8M on Friday and is headed for an underwhelming $5M opening.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $16.7M, $4,069 PTA, $16.7M cume
2. NEW – The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $9.6M, $3,520 PTA, $9.6M cume
3. Knowing (Summit) – $4.6M, $1,378 PTA, $36.11M cume
4. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $4M, $1,472 PTA, $28.4M cume
5. Duplicity (Universal) – $2.3M, $895 PTA, $20.4M cume
6. NEW – 12 Rounds (Fox) – $1.8M, $790 PTA, $1.8M cume
7. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $1.5M, $459 PTA, $49.15M cume
8. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $870,000, $370 PTA, $26.7M cume
9. Taken (Fox) – $820,000, $418 PTA, $135.19M cume
10. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $725,000, $361 PTA, $101.26M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $58M, $14,133 PTA, $58M cume
2. NEW – The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $22.9M, $8,380 PTA, $22.9M cume
3. Knowing (Summit) – $14.4M, $4,315 PTA, $45.91M cume
4. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $12.2M, $4,490 PTA, $36.6M cume
5. Duplicity (Universal) – $7.5M, $2,908 PTA, $25.6M cume
6. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $5.3M, $1,580 PTA, $52.9M cume
7. NEW – 12 Rounds (Fox) – $5M, $1,368 PTA, $5M cume
8. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $2.75M, $1,368 PTA, $103.25M cume
9. Taken (Fox) – $2.5M, $1,275 PTA, $137M
10. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $2.48M, $1,102 PTA, $28.32M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Jeffrey Katzenberg - The Pied Piper for Digital 3-D

ALL-TIME WIDEST NON-SUMMER RELEASES
- with summer defined as May 1 – August 30 -
1. 3/27/09 – Monsters Vs. Aliens – 4,104 playdates
2. 11/07/08 – Madagascar 2 – 4,056 playdates
3. 10/01/04 – Shark Tale – 4,016
4. 3/31/06 – Ice Age: The Meltdown – 3,964
5. 3/14/08 – Dr. Suess’ Horton Hears A Who – 3,954

Many of those playdates are multiple screen engagements. In fact, MVA will be on over 7,000 screens. Screen counts are generally treated as “state secrets” at studios. Sony was able to secure a reported 10,000 screens for Spider-Man 3 with its 4,252 playdates back in May of 2007 (that’s an average of 2.35 screens per playdate). The all-time playdate record still belongs to The Dark Knight last July with 4,366, but TDK’s screen count was just over 9,200 (2.1 screens per location). Based on that calculation, Dreamworks/Paramount has on average 1.7 screens at each of its playdates.

THE DARK KNIGHT still holds the record for most playdates

This is a big, broad 93 minute family film, not a long, dark comic book opus (Spider-Man 3 was 139 minutes long and The Dark Knight was 152 minutes). The main reason for MVA’s high screen count is 3-D. Athough when Katzenberg announced Monsters Vs. Aliens, he envisioned as many as 4,000 3-D screens, the economy has not cooperated, slowing digital conversion and limiting the number of 3-D runs. The final count of actual 3-D engagements is an estimated 2,218 (that includes 143 IMAX 3-D runs).

If you have not seen one of the all-new digital 3-D releases, you must first forget about past experiences with 3-D.  Hollywood’s first flirtation was in the 1950’s with movies like House of Wax and Bwana Devil. Then during my high school years, the early 1980’s, 3-D made a brief resurgence with Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D (1982), Jaws 3-D (1983) and Amityville Horror 3-D (1983). The technology hadn’t changed. It was  still cardboard glasses with colored cellophane lenses and loads of cheap gimmickry.

BOX OFFICE FOR 3-D FILMS OF THE 1980’S
Jaws 3-D – $13.4M opening – $45.5M cume
Friday the Thirteenth: Part 3-D – $9.4M opening – $36.7M cume
Amityville 3-D – $2.3M opening – $6.3M cume

This new 3-D technology is very different. It is made possible by digital presentation along with Real-D 3-D added. The cost of converting an individual theatre to 3-D is about $100,000 per screen. That includes digital projection, the most expensive piece at $75,000, the Real-D system, the special screen required and all installation. When Jeffrey Katzenberg planted his 3-D blockbuster Monsters Vs. Aliens on the release calendar two years ago, he could not have anticipated the worldwide economic meltdown.

Today's 3-D experience is very different from the 50's

Instead of exhibitors frantically ramping up digital conversion to show Monsters Vs. Aliens on as many 3-D screens as possible, the frozen credit markets stifled progress. Theatre chains and independent theatres have had trouble securing the financing to undertake conversions, and it is very uphill, even with distributors offering to pay a “virtiual print fee” to help cover the costs.

Dreamworks isn’t the only studio with a lot riding on the success of Monsters Vs. Aliens. Disney/Pixar’s next film Up is in 3-D, then there’s the Robert Zemeckis 3-D version of A Christmas Carol for the holidays, and in December, James Cameron’s Avatar, his first major wide release since Titanic. There are over 40 major 3-D movies in the pipeline right now. If Monsters Vs. Aliens scores big, it will be a strong incentive for theatre-owners to convert more theatres to digital.

If you are taking the kids to see MVA this weekend, be prepared for a $2-$3.50 upcharge. It may seem outrageous, but soon after you settle into your seat, you will realize that it is worth the extra couple of bucks. Digital 3-D is truly spectacular, and not in a gimmicky way. You just feel like you are in a different world. You’ll forget you’re wearing the stylish new 3-D glasses, and you can take part in what I think is a major innovation for the industry.

Reviews for Monsters Vs. Aliens are outstanding (73% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), and the pre-opening tracking is now sizzling. Given that there is an upcharge on 3-D and a bigger upcharge on 3-D IMAX, I think MVA will beat the $50M-$55M industry expectation. I believe this one will get past $60M by Monday, and, with Easter in two weeks and spring break taking place around the country for school kids, this picture has a real shot at $200M domestic and could surpass Kung Fu Panda’s $215M. Worldwide, the cutting edge animated movie will likely exceed $600M.

The new Lionsgate genre pic The Haunting in Connecticut seems destined for mid-teens and a distant second, although word-of-mouth for I Love You Man is very good, and Dreamworks has an outside shot to finish 1-2. The Nic Cage sci-fi thriller Knowing (Summit) is likely to dip more than 50%, while the entertaining Julia Roberts-Clive Owen comedy/mystery Duplicity (Universal) seems as though it will hold more strongly, possibly down just 30%-35% from opening weekend for a second top five finish.

FINAL BOX OFFICE FORECAST FOR MARCH 27-29
1. NEW – Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $60.64M
2. NEW – The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $14.6M
3. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $12M
4. Knowing (Summit) – $11.8M
5. Duplicity (Universal) – $9.67M
6. NEW – 12 Rounds (Fox) – $8.1M
7. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $7.14M
8. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $2.58M
9. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $2.56M
10. Taken (Fox) – $1.94M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

As a production company, Summit is responsible for some monster hits, including commercially and/or artistically successful films like Once (Oscar nominee for Best Picture), American Pie ($102..5M domestic), Memento (Oscar nominee for Best Original Screenplay: Chris Nolan), Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($186.3M domestic) and In the Valley of Ellah (Tommy Lee Jones nominated for Best Actor). But as a distributor, they got off to a slow start.

SUMMIT RELEASES
- in sequential order -
11/9/07 – P2 – $4M cume
2/29/08 – Penelope – $10M cume
3/14/08 – Never Back Down – $24.8M cume
8/15/08 – Fly Me To the Moon – $13.2M cume
10/17/08 – Sex Drive – $8.4M cume
11/21/08 – Twilight – $191.3M cume
2/6/09 – Push – $30.9M cume
3/20/09 – Knowing – $24.8M opening – $55M-$60M projected cume

As I wrote Friday, I think that word-of-mouth is weak for Knowing, but the movie held up pretty well over opening weekend. It is definitely helped by it’s PG-13 rating, its appeal to Males Under 25 (especially Under 17’s), and its similarity to Cage’s National Treasure franchise.

Meanwhile, I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) ticked up 8% on Saturday to about $6.8M, and it will have banked about $18M by Monday morning. That is on par with Paul Rudd’s Role Models ($19.1M opening) and Jason Segal’s Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($17.7M opening). I’m sticking with $65M-$70M as my projection for domestic box office for this very funny movie that happens to have a very good heart.

I really wonder about the R-rating for I Love You, Man. It is a very, very soft R. There is no nudity or sex (although there are references to oral sex in particular), and it doesn’t roll up a high count of F-bombs. It seems to me that the ratings board was hard on this one, and a PG-13 rating could have meant an additional $5M-$8M (at least) on opening weekend.

DUPLICITY is Julia Roberts' first feature lead since 2003's MONA LISA SMILE

The other new wide release is Duplicity (Universal), starring Julia Roberts and Clive Owen. This is a very smart, densely-plotted, stylish-looking movie for grown-ups. Writer/director Tony Gilroy is among the best screenwriters in town with all three Jason Bourne movies on his resume along with the legal thriller Michael Clayton, nominated for 7 Academy Awards.

With Females 25 Plus as its most important demo, the film got a big 27% Saturday bump to almost $6M. I saw the movie Saturday night, and it was about 60% women with lots of women in pairs and groups. That is a very good sign for future weeks since Females 25 Plus are never in a rush to see a movie on opening weekend. The audience I was in was mesmerized and laughed in all the right places, but overall, the CinemaScore exit survey was only a C. I still belive that, after a $14.4M third-place finish, Duplicity will get to the $45M-$50M range in the US.

Not strong enough to hold an audience for weekend #2 of RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN

Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) is not holding well at all, dipping to $13M for the weekend. A 46% second weekend drop spells an early end for the new one starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. It is just not especially well-liked, and Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks Animation) will destroy it next weekend.

Sorry Rohrschach, WATCHMEN is completely burned out

Finally, Watchmen (Warner Bros) suffered a second consecutive disastrous 3-day, down another 62% to $6.7M for a 17-day cume of $98M. Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s classic graphic novel is unlikely to reach much past $110M in the US, and with a soft foreign performance as well, it will struggle to reach any real profitability.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $24.81M, $7,447 PTA, $24.81M cume
2. NEW – I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $18M, $6,640 PTA, $18M cume
3. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $14.4M, $5,595 PTA, $14.4M cume
4. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $13M, $4,080 PTA, $44.71M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $6.72M, $1,916 PTA, $98M cume
6. The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.92M, $2,465 PTA, $24.04M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $4.4M, $1,654 PTA, $133.43M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.7M, $1,306 PTA, $137.2M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.51M, $1,368 PTA, $87.2M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.14M, $1,498 PTA, $72.8M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.