TOP 10 SATURDAY GROSSES IN 2009
1. March 7 – Watchmen – $18.3M
2. February 21 – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail – $16.6M
3. February 14 – Friday the Thirteenth – $14.3M
4. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $13.2M
5. January 10 – Gran Torino – $12.1M
6. January 31 – Taken – $11.65M
7. March 14 - Race To Witch Mountain – $11M (estimated)
8. February 7 – He’s Just Not That Into You – $10.9M
9. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $10M
10. January 17 – Gran Torino – $10M

The last family film that teamed Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Disney was 2007’s The Game Plan. That film opened with $23M and finished with a $90.6M domestic take. That’s a 3.93 multiple ($23M X 3.93 multiple = $90.6M). But, after opening on September 28, 2007, that movie had 5 full weeks without any other significant family films in the market (Bee Movie from Dreamworks was released on November 2). Race To Witch Mountain, however, will face a minor challenger next weekend with Summit’s Knowing, starring Nicolas Cage, and then Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks) will be a box office buzzsaw starting March 27. Because of the competition, the Race is likely to finish with $80M-$85M domestic.

Meanwhile the Saturday-to-Saturday drop for Watchmen (Warner Bros) was less steep than anticipated. On opening weekend, Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s classic graphic novel generated $18.3M on Saturday, and the movie was down 58% to about $7.7M yesterday. The final weekend take will still be a disappointing $18.07M, down 67%, but here’s a positive spin. If the opening weekend Thursday midnight business of $4.5M is deducting from last weekend’s $55.2M haul, the drop is a more respectable 64%.

The movie is being supported now by second-time (and even third-time) ticket purchases by hardcore fanboys, but ultimately, the picture will likely finish in The $100M-$110M range, which is a disappointment. Watchmen is a disaster in international markets, and although it may still break even or reach marginal profitability when ancillary rights are factored in – home video, cable, syndication, video games – it’s hard to imagine any sort of sequel. You could argue that the movie is “sequel-proof” anyway, although a Minutemen prequel would be a possibility.

The Last House On the Left (Rogue) is a strong #3 for the weekend. The R-rated remake of Wes Craven’s 1972 twisted classic played out as horror films tend to do – down 5% from Friday-to-Saturday to about $5.3M. LA Times blogger Patrick Goldstein raises an interesting point, suggesting that Last House may have merited an NC-17 rating instead of an R because of a brutal rape scene. James Berardinelli from Reelviews sums up the way Goldstein feels.

This is an uncompromising film. It is unapologetically violent, to the point where those who are upset by screen brutality will have a tough time sitting through it. It features one of the most upsetting rape scenes committed to film. The MPAA’s decision to award an R to The Last House on the Left is yet another example of how flawed the U.S. classification system is. If anything is deserving of an NC-17 for adults-only content, this is it. The violence is not cartoonish or in any way sanitized; it is grim and gut-wrenching. Nothing is spared. Consider, for example, a scene featuring a hand and an in-sink garbage disposal. There’s no need to use your imagination regarding what happens – the movie shows it in bloody detail.

This is the kind of movie that I just cannot pay to see. I like great horror films like The Shining, Carrie, Rosemary’s Baby, George Romero’s Night of the Living Dead (and Zack Snyder’s more recent remake of Dawn of the Dead), Silence of the Lambs, Scream, The Exorcist and Halloween (the original from John Carpenter). I even appreciate the evil genius of the first Saw movie. But enough is enough. When it comes to brutal rape with my popcorn, I’ll take a pass every time. The movie should wrap up its domestic theatrical engagements with something in the $35M range – hopefully, not enough to encourage more of the same.

Everything else played out about the way I reported in my Friday Early Estimates story.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $25M, $7,844 PTA, $25M cume
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $18.07M, $5,004 PTA, $86M cume
3. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $14.65M, $6,105 PTA, $14.65M cume
4. Taken (Fox) – $6.65M, $2,327 PTA, $126.83M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $5.13M, $2,329 PTA, $83.2M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $5.02M, $1,949 PTA, $132.62M cume
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $3.1M, $1,359 PTA, $137.76M cume
8. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $2.9M, $1,537 PTA, $89M cume
9. Coraline (Focus) – $2.65M, $1,502 PTA, $69.14M cume
10. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $2.35M, $1,349 PTA, $2.35M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Meanwhile last weekend’s winner Watchmen staggered to a second Friday of only $5.4M or so, and I am projecting only $15.75M for the 3-day. That marks a 71% drop. Anything over $20M would have been acceptable, but the bottom has fallen out of this movie, and it will now struggle to reach $100M domestic. When the foreign and DVD are added, it may make a small profit, but it will likely be negligible. The superstitious might suggest that Watchmen writer Alan Moore’s alleged curse may be to blame, but the reality is that word-of-mouth has been more negative than for any movie in recent memory.

For Johnson, Race To Witch Mountain marks his all-time #3 opening and his second-best as a lead (trailing The Scorpion King).

ALL-TIME TOP 5 DWAYNE JOHNSON OPENINGS
- not counting his cameo in The Mummy Returns –
1. Get Smart – $38.6M opening
2. The Scorpion King – $36M opening
3. Race To Witch Mountain – $24.25M opening (projected)
4. Be Cool – $23.4M opening
5. The Game Plan – $22.95M opening

Lenny Montana as Luca Brasi in THE GODFATHER (he sleeps with the fishes)

The movie industry has a great tradition when it comes to professional wrestlers in feature films. Lenny Montana played the small but pivotal role of Luca Brasi in Francis Ford Coppola’s 1972 Best Picture winner The Godfather and Andre the Giant had a memorable turn in the classic The Princess Bride in 1987, but Johnson is easily the most bankable wrestler-turned-actor of all time.

ALL-TIME TOP 30 GROSSING MOVIES THAT FEATURE A PRO WRESTLER
- ranked by total domestic box office -
1. The Mummy Returns – Dwayne Johnson – $68.1M opening – $202M cume
2. The Longest Yard – Steve Austin, Goldberg, Kevin Nash, The Great Khali – $47.6M opening – $158.1M cume
3. X-Men – Tyler Mayne – $54.4M opening – $157.3M cume
4. The Godfather – Lenny Montana – $300K opening – $135M cume
5. Troy – Tyler Mayne – $46.8M opening – $133.4M cume
6. Get Smart – $38.6M opening – Dwayne Johnson – $130.3M cume
7. Rocky III – Hulk Hogan – $12.4M opening – $125M cume
8. The Scorpion King – Dwayne Johnson – $36M opening – $91M cume
9. The Game Plan – $22.95M opening – Dwayne Johnson – $90.6M cume
10. Predator – Jesse Ventura – $12M opening – $59.7M cume
11. Halloween (2007) – Tyler Mayne – $26.3M opening – $58.2M cume
12. Be Cool – $23.4M – Dwayne Johnson – opening – $56M cume
13. Blade: Trinity – Triple H – $16M opening – $52.4M cume
14. The Rundown – Dwayne Johnson – $18.5M opening – $47.7M cume
15. Walking Tall – Dwayne Johnson – $15.5M opening – $46.4M cume
16. Gridiron Gang – Dwayne Johnson – $14.4M opening – $38.4M cume
17. The Running Man – Jesse Ventura – $8.1M opening – $38.1M cume
18. The Punisher – Kevin Nash – $13.8M opening – $33.8M cume
19. The Princess Bride - Andre the Giant – $4.4M opening – $30.8M cume
20. Doom – Dwayne Johnson – $35.5M opening – $28.2M cume
21. Spy Hard – Hulk Hogan – $10.4M opening – $27M cume
22. Grindhouse – Vladimir Kozlov – $11.6M opening – $25M cume
23. The Marine – John Cena – $7.1M opening – $18.8M cume
24. No Holds Barred – Hulk Hogan – $5M opening – $16.1M cume
25. Over the Top – Terry Funk – $5.1M opening – $16M cume
26. See No Evil – Kane – $4.5M opening – $15M cume
27. The Comebacks – Stacey Keibler – $5.5M opening – $13.4M cume
28. They Live – Roddy Piper – $4.8M opening – $13M cume
29. The Condemned – Steve Austin – $3.8M opening – $7.3M cume
30. Ed Wood – George Steele – $1.9M opening – $5.9M cume

Andre the Giant in THE PRINCESS BRIDE

If Witch Mountain plays out like The Rock’s last family movie The Game Plan, the picture could reach $95M in the US.

Wes Craven’s The Last House On the Left (Universal), a remake of his own 1972 seminal classic, has met industry expectations with an opening day of $5.3M or so (actually ahead of Watchmen). The tightly-budgeted, R-rated genre pic will wrap up the weekend at #3 with a likely $14.3M or so.

Luc Besson’s mega-hit Taken (Fox) is headed for a dip of only 17% for an impressive $6.5M, good for fourth-place and a new cume of $126.68M. Tyler Perry’s biggest hit ever, Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate), will round out the weekend top five with about $5M pushing its domestic gross to $83M.

Don't worry if you miss MISS MARCH - It's coming to DVD very soon

The other wide release is Miss March (Fox Searchlight), which had straight-to-video written all over it. The movie managed only $750K from 1,742 playdates Friday, and it will crawl to a meager $2M 3-day, barely cracking the weekend top ten.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $6.8M, $2,134 PTA, $6.8M cume
2. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.5.M, $2,291 PTA, $5.5M cume
3. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $5.4M, $1,495 PTA, $73.33M cume
4. Taken (Fox) – $2M, $700 PTA, $122.18M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $1.45M, $658 PTA, $79.52M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $1.4M, $543 PTA, $129M cume
7. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $900,000, $476 PTA, $87M cume
8. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $890,000, $511 PTA, $890,000 cume
9. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $860,000, $377 PTA, $135.52M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $600,000, $339 PTA, $67.12M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $24.25M, $7,609 PTA, $24.25M cume
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $15.75M, $4,362 PTA, $83.68M cume
3. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $14.3M, $5,956 PTA, $14.3M cume
4. Taken (Fox) – $6.5M, $2,274 PTA, $126.68M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $5M, $2,271 PTA, $83.08M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $4.83M, $1,874 PTA, $132.43M cume
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $3.18M, $1,395PTA, $137.84M cume
8. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $2.88M, $1,524 PTA, $89M cume
9. Coraline (Focus) – $2.5M, $1,408 PTA, $69M cume
10. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $2.4M, $1,379 PTA, $2.4M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The Watchmen = Epic fail!

If you haven’t seen The Watchmen yet, I’d urge you to read the graphic novel first. Well, actually, I’d urge you to JUST read the GN. lol.

Watchmen.undecided,confused as superhero film with

very little superhero action.Convoluted story,but overall watchable. My opinion only

I was bored while watching Watchmen

Just got out of Watchmen…. Ouch, would spend the 9 quid on – can’t even find the humour, brain switched off 1 hour into the 3- BIG YAWN

Watchmen, three hours of my life I will never ever get back.

Watchmen was a horrible movie! We went today. My bf goes with me to chick flicks,so I go to”other”. THIS ONE WAS bbaaad! Yuk

Going to watch the watchmen so I can rip it to shreds later

Watchmen – way too much blood, way too many slaughtered people!

For everyone who says, “What’s the point of Twitter,” here’s a real-life application. I was able to watch the word-of-mouth take shape for Zack Snyder’s film adaptation of the classic Alan Moore graphic novel. When projecting box office, I use a multiple to arrive at a weekend estimate. After a $24.5M Friday, it would be fair to expect about a 2.5 multiple for about $61.25M ($24.5 X 2.5 = $61.25M). Instead, that strong Friday resulted in a much softer $55.2M, operating on a 2.25 multiple.

That means that in this new age of Twitter and Facebook and text messaging, word-of-mouth on a movie spreads like wildfire. If a film is bad or challenging or has a bad ending, potential moviegoers are going to know it before opening weekend is over. In fact, a negative reaction from Friday’s ticket buyers can mean fewer admissions on Saturday and Sunday.

As I have written before, I like this movie. Given the densely-plotted source material, Snyder has pulled off something amazing. This is the thinking man’s superhero movie, and the film cannot be enjoyed, or even tolerated, if you check your mind at the theatre door. Watchmen is about ideas. For me, it is a $120M art film that deconstructs the very idea of what a hero is. The film is cold, intellectual, uncompromising and not particularly hopeful. The Dark Knight, ultimately, is about how when everyday citizens are confronted by impossible choices, they do the right thing. In the nihilistic world of Watchmen, everything is gray, uncertain and relative. Anybody who showed up last weekend for a bucket of popcorn and some cheap CGI thrills probably left very disappointed.

Fortunately for Warner Bros (domestic distribution rights), Paramount (foreign distribution rights) and Fox (a profit participant thanks to litigation), the hardcore fans of the graphic novel seem to like the movie. Here are some Tweets from fanboys last Friday and Saturday.

Seeing watchmen again for the second time.

Watchmen, pretty damn good, really enjoyed it. Now to finish reading the graphic novel to get the details and depth of everything

experiencing the post-Watchmen glow.

I am dying to see Watchmen again, soooooooo good!

The big question in Hollywood is, “How much will Watchmen fall this weekend?” When the opening weekend 3-day is this big, even wildly successful movies like Iron Man and The Dark Knight tumble about 50%.

SAMPLING OF SECOND WEEKEND DROPS FOR 2008 BLOCKBUSTERS
Iron Man – down 48%
Hancock – down 49%
The Dark Knight – down 52%
Jumper – down 54%
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor – down 59%
Quantum of Solace – down 60%
The Incredible Hulk – down 60%
Wanted – down 61%
The Day the Earth Stood Still – down 68%
Cloverfield – down 68%
Hellboy II: The Golden Army – down 71%

My best guess is that the encore for Dr. Manhattan and pals will be in the $20M-$23M range, and, if I you pin me down to an exact prediction, I’ll go with $22.1M, which would mark a 60% decline. A 3-day take of less than $20M would be a huge disappointment.

If you happened to see this past weekend’s Saturday Night Live, you saw a tour de force from Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. His opening monologue, which turned into a Fosse-style musical number, was a piece of hilarious self-mockery, and he really got the President’s vocal cadence down for an Incredible Hulk spoof called The Rock Obama. Johnson has gone from pro wrestling superstar to versatile entertainer, and he’s also a full-fledged movie star.

In the fall of 2007, The Rock flexed his box office muscle with Disney’s The Game Plan. The family film featuring Johnson as a football star and playboy-turned-Dad, and, after a $23M opening frame, the movie went on to $90M domestic.

Now Disney is re-booting its popular Witch Mountain movies from the 1970’s – Escape to Witch Mountain in 1975 and Return from Witch Mountain in 1978 – with The Rock, Carla Gugino (Watchmen) and AnnaSophia Robb (Bridge To Terabithia). Tracking with the family crowd, including Moms 25 Plus, is very strong, and I am predicting $22.75M, possibly enough to score a surprise win over Watchmen.

Wes Craven’s R-rated remake of his 1972 classic The Last House On the Left (Universal) looks a bit stronger-than-expected. Despite no real star power, there is room in the marketplace for this kid of gruesome scarefest, and I think the movie could hit $18.2M by Monday morning, good for third place.

The other new wide release is Miss March (Fox Searchlight), a crass R-rated comedy with no star power. To me, the tracking looks very soft, and it looks like it will miss the top 5 altogether with just over $5M.

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 13-15
1. NEW – Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $22.75M
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $22.1M
3. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $18.2M
4. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail (Lionsgate) – $5.7M
5. Taken (Fox) – $5.23M
6. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $5.13M
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $5.07M
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $2.59M
9. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $2.08M
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.07M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s densely written graphic novel tumbled 24% from Friday to Saturday. Granted, midnight shows took a lot of steam out of the movie, but that’s a pretty significant fall given that the Males 25 Plus demo – a key one for this film – were not likely part of the Thursday fanboy crowd and, despite the current unemployment rate, were working on Friday.

Still, Watchmen has posted the all-time #6 opening for an R-rated film.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR AN R-RATED MOVIE
1. The Matrix Reloaded – $91.7M
2. The Passion of the Christ – $83.8M
3. 300 – $70.8M
4. Hannibal – $58M
5. Sex & The City – $57M
6. Watchmen – $55.65M (studio estimate)
7. 8 Mile – $51.2M
8. Wanted – $50.9M
9. The Matrix Revolutions – $48.5M
10. Troy – $46.8M

Hardcore fans of the comic seem satisfied by this relatively faithful adaptation, but a huge swath of the movie-going public doesn’t seem to get it. Watchmen is not a popcorn movie. It is not about characters with super powers (except Dr. Manhattan) who fly around the world trying to save the world from colorful villains. I don’t think that the average 19yo guy and his Friday night date expected to see a movie set in an alternate United States where the Vietnam War was won, Watergate never happens and Nixon has an FDR-like run, the world is on the brink of nuclear annhilation and the U.S.A. is a dystopian mess. Word-of-mouth is mixed at best.

It is possible that Watchmen will finish its run with as little as $135M-$140M. That would put it in the same range as Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony), which passed $133M this weekend. But the Adam Sandler-produced comedy has a reported budget of $26M compared to the $120M budget for the grim tentpole. In the final analysis, Blart won’t have any meaningful revenue overseas while Watchmen has a shot at as much as $200M overseas, but the complex superhero deconstruction yarn will finish well off the $450M worldwide that Snyder’s last movie 300 delivered.

Watchmen is more an exercise of intellectualism than the brute spectacle that Under 25’s have grown accustomed to. This is a movie about ideas that happens to have a bunch of cool special effects. That’s not to say that the marketing is misleading. It’s just that there is no way to properly convey what this movie is really about in :30 and :60 TV spots.

Jeffrey Dean Morgan delivers as The Comedian

All that being said, I love this movie. Snyder and screenwriters David Hayter and Alex Tse have managed to approximate the dense plotting of Moore’s original graphic novel. When characters come to blows, the fight sequences are well-choreographed and the blood and guts on the screen don’t bother me the way it does some. Watchmen is for grown-ups. It has absolutely earned its R rating, and, honestly, the average kid wouldn’t be able to figure it out anyway.

The film provokes an interesting discussion about heroes. Whether they are glowing blue beings with the ability to move matter at their will or elected leaders making decisions for the “common good,” citizens cannot ever take things at face value. The end doesn’t always justify the means, and the means must always be questioned.

Jackie Earle Haley as Kelly Leak and all grown up

The cast here is uniformly good. The standout is Jackie Earle Haley as Rohrschach. After playing Kelly Leak in the original Bad News Bears, he fell off the map. His career was resurrected with a creepy, Oscar-nominated turn in Little Children a few years back, and now he has scored again as the snarling, angry and morally uncompromising Rohrschach. Jeffrey Dean Morgan, best known for his work on Grey’s Anatomy, is the embodiment of cynical evil as The Comedian (and he has a more-than-passing resemblance to Javier Bardem). I also enjoyed Carla Gugino as the original Silk Spectre/Sally Jupiter (and old age makeup in movies continues to improve).

Would Minutemen make a good Watchmen prequel?

March is a solid release frame for Watchmen with spring break coming in the next 6 weeks for high schoolers and college students, but the legs will not be very long for this one. My hunch is that $23M is the best case scenario for second weekend. In the end the movie will likely be profitable when the ancillaries are added, but it’s hard to imagine what a sequel would look like (even if one was attempted). The best bet might be a prequel about the Minutemen.

In other box office news, Tyler Perry continues to add to the haul for his all-time best grossing movie Madea Goes To Jail. The comedy will sell another $8.8M in tickets good for #2 for a new cume of $76.5M. Fox’s long-running French import Taken continues holding strong with $7.45M or so and a new domestic take of $118M, pushing the movie to about $200M worldwide (Luc Besson has got to be thinking sequel here). Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Seartchlight) and Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) will round out the top 5.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $55.65M, $15,413 PTA, $55.65M cume
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $8.8M, $4,091 PTA, $76.5M cume
3. Taken (Fox) – $7.45M, $2,470 PTA, $118.04M cume
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $6.92M, $2,396 PTA, $125.44M cume
5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $4.2M, $1,642 PTA, $133.64M cume
6. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $4.02M, $1,644 PTA, $84.64M cume
7. Coraline (Focus) – $3.31M, $1,691 PTA, $65.68M cume
8. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $3.12M, $1,363 PTA, $38.35M cume
9. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) – $2.75M, $2,183 PTA, $16.79M cume
10. Fired Up (Sony) – $2.6M, $1,446 PTA, $13.36M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The brand new film adaptation of the classic graphic comic Watchmen is a hit of monstrous proportions on its opening weekend, but not everyone loves it. In fact, not only is there a prominent character named Rohrschach (played by Oscar nominee Jackie Earle Haley), the film itself is serving as a Rohrschach Test for critics, fanboys and the broader public.

The Zack Snyder-directed $120M epic started with $4.5M in Thursday midnight business which is outstanding. There was no way for Watchmen to approach the $18.5M midnight start for lat summer’s The Dark Knight. First off, it is March and not the middle of summer blockbuster season. Kids have school. People are working. These are not the lazy days of July when it is easier for many to see a movie at midnight on Thursday, and hit the office late on Friday. The other factor is the movie’s rating. This is an R-rated movie, not PG-13 like The Dark Knight.

Jackie Earle Haley, who played Kelly Leak in the original Bad News Bears, is wearing the Rorschach mask in Watchmen

The Thursday night start for Watchmen was 44% better than the $2.5M midnight shows for director Snyder’s last epic 300 (also rated R). It was also virtually double the $2.3M midnight start for November’s Quantum of Solace (PG-13). Those are much better comparables than The Dark Knight or say last year’s PG-13 rated Twilight, which grabbed a reported $7M midnight preview gross.

Watchmen was spectacular at the box office Friday, and, after consulting with multiple sources, I am projecting a staggering $25.2M (that does include midnight previews) for Friday. That is approximately the 32nd-best opening day in modern box office history, but it is the all-time #12 opening day for a non-sequel.

ALL-TIME TOP 15 OPENING DAYS FOR A NON-SEQUEL
1. Spider-Man – $39.4M
2. Twilight – $35.9M
3. Iron Man – $35.2M
4. Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone – $32.3M
5. The Simpsons Movie – $30.7M
6. I Am Legend – $30M
7. The Da Vinci Code – $28.6M
8. 300 - $28.1M
9. Transformers – $27.8M
10. Sex & The City – $26.7M
11. The Passion of the Christ – $26.5M
12. Watchmen – $25.2M (projected)
13. Planet of the Apes – $24.6M
14. Hulk – $24.2M
15. The Day After Tomorrow – $23.5M

When the numbers get this big, and the movie is this front-loaded, 3-day projections are problematic, and I am revising downward from the $62.5M I published Friday night (my final prediction on published Wednesday was $63M). It’s looking more like $57M as of Saturday morning. Running time is killing this movie. If the number holds, it would still give Watchmen the all-time #5 opening weekend for an R-rated movie, trailing only Matrix Reloaded, Passion of the Christ (which had better source material contrary to what fanboys may believe), Snyder’s 300 and Hannibal.

Still the all-time biggest opening for an R-rated movie

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR AN R-RATED MOVIE
1. The Matrix Reloaded – $91.7M
2. The Passion of the Christ – $83.8M
3. 300 – $70.8M
4. Hannibal – $58M
5. Watchmen – $57M (projected)
6. Sex & The City – $57M
7. 8 Mile – $51.2M
8. Wanted – $50.9M
9. The Matrix Revolutions – $48.5M
10. Troy – $46.8M

One interesting facet of this movie is the fact that three different major studios have a piece of the action. Warner Bros owns domestic distribution rights, Paramount has the foreign and Fox, which won a very public battle over the rights to the movie, is getting 5%-8.5% of gross participation that will be set by the film’s worldwide revenue success. That puts an awful lot of powerful Hollywood types on the same team, working to ensure Warchmen’s success.

Critics are divided about Watchmen as a movie. The movie has a 65% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but the most established critics – what Rotten Tomatoes classifies as the Cream of the Crop – has generated a lower 43% positive reviews. Here’s a sampling from writers that I know and like.

Joe Morgenstern of the Wall Street Journal –
“The reverence is inert, the violence noxious, the mythology murky, the tone grandiose, the texture glutinous. It’s an alternate version of The Incredibles minus the delight.”

Pete Hammond, Hollywood.com -
“A stunning, mind-bending, breathtaking densely-packed motion picture experience.”

David Poland, Movie City News -
“The problem with Watchmen is, in the end, that it is a bit of a big stiff bore for two acts with an improved, but mostly uninspired third act. Look at Watchmen from the back to the front. Do you care about what has happened to any of these characters, except Rorschach, by the time you leave the theater?”

Roger Ebert, Chicago Sun-Times -
“After the revelation of The Dark Knight here is Watchmen, another bold exercise in the liberation of the superhero movie. It’s a compelling visceral film.”

Watchmen author Alan Moore

Obviously, the reviews are all over the board. Although, there’s no question that the writer of the original Watchmen graphic novel, the enigmatic Alan Moore, hates the movie, it’s just as certain that he has not and will never see it. In fact, he put a curse on the whole project.

Watchmen director Zack Snyder

Director Zack Snyder signed on for a gig that proved too tough and too problematic for the likes of brilliant filmmakers like Terry Gilliam (The Fisher King, Twelve Monkeys), Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler, The Fountain) and Paul Greengrass (United 93, The Bourne Ultimatum). Perhaps Alan Moore is right. His book is “inherently unfilmable.” There’s no way to pack the dense details of the brilliant 1986 landmark into a movie – even when it’s 2 hours, 43 minutes long.

I am a huge fan of the graphic novel having read it in college. I deliberately didn’t re-read Watchmen in advance of the movie because I think it needs to be judged as its own individual piece of work. Snyder’s problem all along has been, “How do you make a movie that both satisfies hardcore fans and is accessible enough for people who have never even heard of Watchmen?”

For the time being, the spectacle, the buzz, the fanboy fervor and a pitch-perfect marketing campaign have set the stage for an historic 3-day opening. Once the mainstream audience discovers that Watchmen is more about ideas than it is about heroes with capes, it will be interesting to see how it holds up. For comparison’s sake, 300 fell 53% from its opening weekend of $70.8M, but the drop-off will almost certainly be bigger here.

300 ended up at $210.6M domestic and $456M worldwide, but Watchmen is likely to fall short of those numbers. In fact, whereas 300 finished with a 2.97 multiple (2.97 X $70.8M = total domestic box), Watchmen is more likely to be in the 2.4-2.6 range. That would translate to a, still impressive, final US gross of $137M-$148M. Given that spring break is coming for high schoolers and college kids, I think the movie can reach the upper end of that range.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $25.2M, $6,979 PTA, $25.2M cume
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.5M, $1,162 PTA, $70.2M cume
3. Taken (Fox) – $2.3M, $763 PTA, $112.9M cume
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.05M, $709 PTA, $120.56M cume
5. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $1.3M, $532 PTA, $81.92M cume
6. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $1.1M, $430 PTA, $130.5M cume
7. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $1M, $437 PTA, $36.2M cume
8. Fired Up (Sony) – $920,000, $512 PTA, $11.68M cume
9. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) – $850,000, $666 PTA, $14.85M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $800,000, $408 PTA, $63.1M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $57M, $15,785 PTA, $57M cume
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $9M, $4,184 PTA, $76.7M cume
3. Taken (Fox) – $7.75M, $2,570 PTA, $118.04M cume
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $7.58M, $2,625 PTA, $126.1M cume
5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $4.5M, $1,759 PTA, $133.5M cume
6. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $4.05M, $1,659 PTA, $84.68M cume
7. Coraline (Focus) – $3.5M, $1,787 PTA, $66M cume
8. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) – $3.1M, $2,380 PTA, $17M cume
9. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $3M, $1,310 PTA, $38.5M cume
10. Fired Up (Sony) – $2.75M, $1,520 PTA, $13.5M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

WATCHMEN writer Alan Moore has reportedly placed a curse on the movie

The original comic was written by Alan Moore and the lead artist was Dave Gibbons. The collaborators have radically different views of Snyder’s film adaptation.The latter has publicly expressed confidence in Snyder. Gibbons reveals to Wired magazine that at one point Joel Silver owned the film rights to Watchmen and that the producer was insistent that Arnold Schwarzenegger should play Dr. Manhattan. (That would have potentially been an unintentional disaster movie.)

Artist Dave Gibbons on the set of Zack Snyder's Watchmen

The artist says although he never had much to do with previous attempts to make the movie “I’ve been quite involved with the Zack Snyder one. I introduced myself to him at the U.K. premier of 300, and right from the very beginning we kind of hit it off, and I really had that gut feeling that he was going to do it properly. And I must say everything that I’ve seen since has only increased my confidence, to the point that I just think it’s a wonderfully fortuitous piece of timing and the right man at the right place at the right time.”

Moore, however, is very different kind of dude. On one hand, his story Watchmen has been named one of the top 100 English language novels ever written by Time Magazine, ranking alongside Harper Lee, John Steinbeck, George Orwell and F. Scott Fitzgerald. Simultaneously, he reportedly considers himself to be a warlock and has placed a curse on Snyder’s movie. The writer tells the LA Times that his philosophy about Hollywood. “It spoon-feeds us, which has the effect of watering down our collective cultural imagination. It is as if we are freshly hatched birds looking up with our mouths open waiting for Hollywood to feed us more regurgitated worms. The Watchmen film sounds like more regurgitated worms. I for one am sick of worms.”

A number of Moore-written comics have made the jump to the big screen, including V for Vendetta (excellent movie), From Hell (a mess), Constantine (more of a mess) and The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen (complete disaster), and he claims that he has never seen any of them. According to its author, his classic graphic novel Watchmen is “inherently unfilmable.”

It will take all of Moore's warlock powers to keep WATCHMEN from cracking $60M this weekend

So, it is Zack Snyder vs. Alan Moore’s curse. Warlock or not, the industry pre-release tracking is sky high. In surveying my normal studio contacts Wednesday, the lowest prediction I could find was for a $55M opening weekend. One exec at a competing studio thinks that $70M-$75M is “in the bag,” but I’m going with a number a few ticks lower. The 163 minute running time will give the movie fewer showtimes overall and that sort of running time generally hurts late show business. I’m calling for $63M for 3 days.

If that number hits, Watchmen would post the all-time #3 March opening, trailing only Snyder’s 300 ($70.8M) and Ice Age: The Meltdown ($68M). It would also be the all-time fourth-best 1st quarter opening for Hollywood also finishing behind 2004’s The Passion of the Christ ($83.8M).

Curse…Schmurse.

FINAL PREDICTION FOR MARCH 6-8
1. NEW – Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $63M
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail (Lionsgate) – $11.5M
3. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $9M
4. Taken (Fox) – $7M
5. Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience (Disney) – $6.75M
6. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $4.2M
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $3.9M
8. Coraline (Focus) – $3.2M
9. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Diney) – $3.1M
10. Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li (Fox) – $2.1M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The precise number of 3-D screens is difficult to pinpoint. Last month, Lionsgate confirmed 1,033 Digital 3-D runs for the remake of My Bloody Valentine, and although I have not been able to confirm a hard number for Coraline (Focus), it was probably close to 1,100. Now, as the expensive $100K per screen digital conversion creeps along for exhibitors, Jonas Brothers could reach 1,200 3-D screens. Unlike Coraline, the new Disney concert movie will not be boosted by traditional 2-D 35MM playdates.

The Jonas Brothers along with Mom, Dad and baby brother Frank (sometimes called "the Bonus Jonas")

They have sold millions of records, packed them in at concerts across America, have a loyal fan base of screaming teenage girls, and they seem to be good kids. Their Dad is a former Assembly of God minister, and they were home-schooled by their folks. Famously, they wear purity rings, promising to remain virgins until they get married. When asked about the rings, 18-year-old Joe Jonas told Newsweek, “Our parents asked if we wanted to, and we were, like, ‘Yeah,’ so it’s awesome.”

As good practicing Evangelical Christian, these kids are tithing too. Jonas Brothers earned $12M in 2007, and they donated 10% to their Change for the Children Foundation, which offers support to other charities like St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital and the American Diabetes Association (Nick Jonas was diagnosed with Type 1 Diabetes in November of 2005).

Tracking shows that the audience for Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience will be almost exclusively Females Under 25 and their Moms, and this picture has a strong shot at a spectacular $25K per screen for a $30M opening weekend. Take that with a grain of salt because movie-after-movie has out-performed expectations this year.

Last week’s #1 movie Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) is in for a 60% drop from its meteoric start. The latest from Tyler Perry Studios will possibly add another $16.2M for a second place finish. Academy Award winner Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) will sing Jai Ho as it pops to third place, up as much as 14% from Oscar weekend. The target for Danny Boyle’s gutty, little Best Picture winner is $9.5M, which would push the $14M movie to almost $113M in the US.

Luc Besson’s Taken (Fox) will crash through the $100M barrier on Friday and seems destined for #4 with about $7.25M, which would push this French action import to $105M domestic to go along with the $70M achieved in foreign markets. Meanwhile, the Jonas Brothers have stolen virtually all of the 3-D screens from Coraline (Focus). Henry Selick’s spectacular stop-action animation instant classic will tumble a possible 50% to about $6M (a far cry from the more friendly 12% and 22% drops from the last two weekends). Still if my number hits, Coraline will have a new domestic cume of almost $62M compared to its budget of $60M.
The other new wide release is Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li, which Fox has pared down to about 1,000 playdates, is a non-starter. According to pre-release industry tracking the video game adaptation seems headed for a sub-$5M start.

FINAL PREDICTED GROSSES FOR FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 1
1. NEW – Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience (Disney) – $30M
2. Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $16.2M
3. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $9.5M
4. Taken (Fox) -$7.25M
5. Coraline (Focus) – $6M
6. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $5.1M
7. Friday The Thirteenth (Warner Bros) – $4.35M
8. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $4.3M
9. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $4.2M
10. NEW – Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li (Fox) – $4M
11. Fired Up (Sony) – $2.8M
12. The International (Sony) – $2.75M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The film opened at #3 for February 6-8 with a better-than-expected $16.8M start. Then, the film enjoyed a nice surge over the 4-day President’s Day weekend period ringing up another $18.8M in sales. Then, Coraline dipped a mere 23% over Oscar weekend finishing second overall with an excellent $11.28M for a new cume of $53.7M.

That should set up Coraline for another good solid couple of weekends, right? Wrong.

Henry Selick has created a movie that is a “native” 3-D experience. This is the first time that I have forgotten about the glasses and become immersed in a truly 3-D world. This utilizes the state-of-the-art technology not as a gimmick, but as a storytelling tool. There is just no way that Coraline in 2-D can possibly compare.

That’s where the Jonas Brothers come in. Disney’s Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience will roll out on almost every 3-D capable screen in America this Friday, and it will push Coraline to 35MM 2-D at most of its existing playdates. Focus will miss out on those 3-D upcharges (most exhibitors are charging a premium price for 3-D presentation), and the momentum that Coraline has been building will be lost as it shifts to traditional presentation almost everywhere.

In order to show a movie in 3-D, a theatre must first upgrade from traditional 35MM to Digital Presentation, then add the relatively inexpensive Real-D 3-D component. Because the cost of digital conversion is about $100,000 per screen, the continuing credit crunch has slowed the digital rollout to a near-standstill at America’s multiplexes. In most competitive zones, there is only one theatre offering Digital 3-D, and so when a new 3-D movie is released the current 3-D movie will get pushed to 2-D regardless of how the first movie is performing. In this case, the Jonas Brothers will be pushing the #2 movie in America to 35MM virtually from coast-to-coast.

Later in the week, I’ll have final predictions for Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience and Coraline, but as of now, I’m guessing that Selick’s remarkable piece of work could drop as much as 50% in the upcoming weekend to something in the $6M range. If Kevin, Joe and Nick weren’t landing Friday, there’s no telling how much stronger little blue-haired Coraline could have performed.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The box office king....err....queen of Oscar weekend

Although I am not necessarily a fan of Tyler Perry movies, I am a Tyler Perry fan. He traveled the country for years doing live stage shows in order to fine-tune his act, and he identified an under-served audience – African Americans, and more specifically black, Christian women. Now he makes two movies a year, and he has two television series’ on TBS – House of Payne and Meet the Browns. He built a multi-million dollar studio in an under-served area in Atlanta, taking advantage of tax credits for building in a blighted neighborhood. Now he is building a mini-empire. He produces, writes, directs and stars in his projects, and he even helps to finance them.

Perry has proved that it is possible to reach out to an audience that Hollywood has generally ignored. He saw a demographic market, and now he knows how to hit that “sweet spot” over and over again. He is an unabashed capitalist and, although he may never win an Academy Award for this brand of movie, he is selling a lot of movie tickets. Madea Goes To Jail was not screened for critics, and it wouldn’t matter anyway. Here’s TP’s movie resume.

ALL-TIME TYLER PERRY OPENINGS
1. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail – $41.12M opening (studio estimate)
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Family Reunion – $30M opening – $63.25M cume
3. Diary of a Mad Black Woman – $21.9M opening – $50.6M cume
4. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married – $21.3M opening – $55.2M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns – $20.1M opening – $42M cume
6. Tyler Perry’s The Family That Preys – $17.3M opening – $37.1M cume
7. Tyler Perry’s Daddy’s Little Girls – $11.2M opening – $31.3M cume

As I was discussing the numbers with studio execs today, everyone was amazed. This is about Perry’s unique voice, but there’s something else happening. The first two months of 2009 have been filled with movies that have beaten industry expectations. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) with $31.8M in its first 3 days and almost $120M by Monday? Notorious (Fox Searchlight) comes out of nowhere to grab $23.4M over MLK weekend? A micro-budgeted French import like Taken (Fox) will pass $100M in the US? Clint Eastwood delivers his biggest wide opening weekend and top-grossing picture of his career with Gran Torino (Warner Bros)? The reboot of Friday The Thirteenth (Warner Bros) scares up an amazing $43.5M 4-day start? The movie business is incredibly healthy despite an uncertain economy. I continue to believe that Hollywood is recession-proof.

Even the bad movies are doing better-than-expected. For example, Sony’s low budget teen comedy Fired Up is a throw-away this weekend, and most of my regular sources had it opening in the $4M-$5M range. Instead, it grabbed a decent $2.3M on its opening day, and Sony says it reached $6M. It will likely finish ninth for the 3-day, but that’s so much better than it could have been.

Luc Besson’s Taken was second for the day at $3.43M, and will finish #32 for the weekend as well with about $11.4M according to Fox. That will give this Pierre Morel-directed action flick a head-turning $95.15M, and it should pass $100M this week.

The $60M Coraline (Focus), the spectacular 3-D film from Henry Selick, will wrap up the weekend at #3 with about $11M, down just 25%, after a $2.8M Friday (fourth for the day). This movie will have banked $53.4M by Monday, and, if you haven’t seen it yet, do yourself a favor and experience just how far 3-D has evolved from those cardboard glasses with the red and blue lenses.

The Flower Films rom-com He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) seems likely has nosed out the fast-fading Friday The Thirteenth for fourth-place. Based on the Greg Behrendt-Liz Tuccillo self-help book, the Ken Kwapis-directed chick-flick managed another $3M on Friday (#3 for the day), which has translated to $8.54M for the 3-day.

Friday The Thirteenth is drowning, and there's nothing Jason can do about it

Meanwhile, movie-goers showed up at Crystal Lake last weekend, but America’s teens have quickly lost interest. Friday The Thirteenth from director Marcus Nispel and Michael Bay’s Platinum Dunes fell to only about $2.8M in second Friday sales (the movie stunned with over $19M last Friday), and Jason has limped to just $7.82M. That is a drop of almost 81%, one of the ten biggest weekend-over-weekend tumbles in modern box office history.

Finally, Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight), which will almost certainly win the Academy Award for Best Picture on tonight, added 600 or so playdates Friday, and it picked up another $2.1M or so to start the weekend. Searchlight has handled this film perfectly, and it will finish the weekend with about $8M, which would put its domestic cume at about $98M when it collects Hollywood’s biggest prize. It will probably surpass $100M in the US as soon as Monday as it rides an Oscar wave.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $14.65M, $7,210 PTA, $14.65M cume
2. Taken (Fox) – $3.43M, $1,106 PTA, $87.18M cume
3. He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $3M, $984 PTA, $64.54M cume
4. Coraline (Focus) – $2.8M, $1,299 PTA, $45.13M cume
5. Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) – $2.75M, $1,299 PTA, $49.97M cume
6. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $2.4M, $957 PTA, $23M cume
7. NEW – Fired Up (Sony) – $2.3M, $1,271 PTA, $2.3M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.1M, $936 PTA, $92.06M cume
9. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $1.54M, $545 PTA, $115.92M cume
10. The International (Sony) – $1.42M, $604 PTA, $14M cume
11. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) – $1.1M, $414 PTA, $26.77M cume
12. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $1M, $493 PTA, $131.79M cume

STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $41.12M, $20,236 PTA, $41.12M cume
2. Taken (Fox) – $11.4M, $3,675 PTA, $95.15M cume
3. Coraline (Focus) – $11.03M, $5,119 PTA, $53.39M cume
4. He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $8.54M, $2,800 PTA, $70.08M cume
5. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $8.05M, $3,587 PTA, $98.02M cume
6. Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) – $7.82M, $2,520 PTA, $55M cume
7. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $7.01M, $2,800 PTA, $27.65M cume
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $7M, $2,469 PTA, $121.38M cume
9. NEW – Fired Up (Sony) – $6M, $3,315 PTA, $6M cume
10. The International (Sony) – $4.45M, $1,882 PTA, $17M cume
11. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) – $3.7M, $1,392 PTA, $29.37M cume
12. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $3.64M, $1,793 PTA, $134.43M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The entrepreneurial spirit is alive and well with Tyler Perry

At only 39, Perry is building an empire. He officially christened Tyler Perry Studios last October in Atlanta with a star-studded event. The multi-million dollar project is a sprawling 30-acre working production facility in southwestern Atlanta, and the opening night party featured appearances by legendary African American actors like Sidney Poitier, Cicely Tyson, Ruby Dee, Lou Gossett, Jr. and Will Smith.

Oscar winner Sidney Poitier attended the opening night gala of Tyler Perry Studios in Atlanta

The 81-year-old Poitier, who won a hard-fought battle for his place in Hollywood with brilliant performances in films like Blackboard Jungle, The Defiant Ones, Lilies of the Field and Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner, saw the importance of Perry’s achievement. “I’ve spent 56 years in this business, and tonight is the reward,” said the Oscar winner. “To see the people who have followed me and to see the success of the extent of this man is a real gift.”

Perry as Madea

Not only does he produce, write, direct and star in his own movies, he also helps to finance them. His second movie, Madea’s Family Reunion, was his biggest with a terrific $30M 3-day and over $63M domestic during its theatrical engagements. Like Diary of a Mad Black Woman, it featured Perry’s outrageous Madea character. But even his non-“fat-suit-in-drag” pictures have performed well.

ALL-TIME TYLER PERRY OPENINGS
1. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Family Reunion – $30M opening – $63.25M cume
2. Diary of a Mad Black Woman – $21.9M opening – $50.6M cume
3. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married – $21.3M opening – $55.2M cume
4. Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns – $20.1M opening – $42M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s The Family That Preys – $17.3M opening – $37.1M cume
6. Tyler Perry’s Daddy’s Little Girls – $11.2M opening – $31.3M cume

Who is Perry’s audience? “It’s about 50% Christian churchgoing. It depends on what part of the country I’m in,” the filmmaker tells the Hollywood Reporter. “If I’m in the Bible Belt it’s 90% churchgoing. If I’m up north in Newark it may be 30%, so it depends on where you are.” He fine-tuned his characters doing live stage shows around the country. “I used to adjust the shows to where I am. If I was in the Bible Belt I made it more Christian, God-themed. If I was up north I could get away with saying ‘ass’ a little more. I would say 75%-80% women, 10%-20% men and about 5% children. What I’ve learned is you treat the women right and they bring everybody else.”

Now in addition to his two TBS television series’ Meet the Browns and House of Payne, he unleashes his seventh movie for Lionsgate this weekend, marking the return of his most popular character in Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail. Industry tracking is remarkably unreliable when it comes to Perry’s movies and Hollywood execs like to look down their noses at him, but my prediction is for a very solid $23M opening, which would mark the second-best 3-day start of his career, and more than enough to win the weekend.

Holdover horror pic Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) will take a mighty tumble, down at least 60%, but it should still manage about $16.25M or so for its second weekend for Platinum Dunes. That will put Jason in second-place for Oscar weekend and give the slasher reboot a new cume of about $63M by Monday.

It will be a battle for third-place between rom-com He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) and Taken (Fox). Both movies will be in the $10.5M range with the Drew Barrymore-produced Not That Into You likely just shy of $72M domestic, meanwhile the action import from France starring Liam Neeson will probably top $93M, and the Luc Besson written and produced action flick should surpass $100M by the end of next week.

Henry Selick’s Coraline (Focus), a truly spectacular 3-D  experience from the genius behind Tim Burton’s Nightmare Before Christmas, will likely reach a very solid $9.6M for 3-days, blowing past $50M in domestic sales.

Sony has a low budget non-starter on its hands as Fired Up, a misguided comedy about two high school football jocks who join an all-girls’ cheer team, looks like a disaster in pre-opening tracking, and it will almost certainly be limited to about $5M or so.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR FEBRUARY 20-22
1. NEW – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $23M
2. Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) – $16.25M
3. He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $10.53M
4. Taken (Fox) – $10.44M
5. Coraline (Focus) – $9.6M
6. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $8.2M
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $6.1M
8. The International (Sony) – $5.8M
9. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $5M
10. NEW – Fired Up (Sony) – $4.9M
11. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) – $4M
12. Push (Summit) – $3.56M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.