Audiences RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN on Saturday as The Rock’s new family film targets $25M start & $85M domestic, but WATCHMEN is now headed for no more than $110M in the US!

As expected Disney’s Race To Witch Mountain enjoyed a huge Saturday surge for just over $11M in tickets sold, and the reboot of the 70’s franchise will finish with about $25M for the 3-day. Overall, Race posted the year’s seventh-best Saturday performance.

TOP 10 SATURDAY GROSSES IN 2009
1. March 7 – Watchmen – $18.3M
2. February 21 – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail – $16.6M
3. February 14 – Friday the Thirteenth – $14.3M
4. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $13.2M
5. January 10 – Gran Torino – $12.1M
6. January 31 – Taken – $11.65M
7. March 14 - Race To Witch Mountain – $11M (estimated)
8. February 7 – He’s Just Not That Into You – $10.9M
9. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $10M
10. January 17 – Gran Torino – $10M
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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take, a.r. rachman, academy awards
Posted Mar 15th 2009 at 12:02 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 802822 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/15/studio-estimates/Audiences+RACE+TO+WITCH+MOUNTAIN+on+Saturday+as+The+Rock%27s+new+family+film+targets+%2425M+start+%26amp%3B+%2485M+domestic%2C+but+WATCHMEN+is+now+headed+for+no+more+than+%24110M+in+the+US%21+2009-03-15+19%3A02%3A03Steve+Mason

Wrestler-turned-movie star Dwayne Johnson leads RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN to a $24.25M opening, while WATCHMEN plummets 71%!

As Watchmen (Warner Bros) falls, “The Rock” appears to be racing to a weekend win. Disney’s Race To Witch Mountain, starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, is off to a solid start with $6.8M or so on opening day, and, with its expected surge in family matinee audiences on Saturday and Sunday, it will likely triumph with a possible $24.25M.

Meanwhile last weekend’s winner Watchmen staggered to a second Friday of only $5.4M or so, and I am projecting only $15.75M for the 3-day. That marks a 71% drop. Anything over $20M would have been acceptable, but the bottom has fallen out of this movie, and it will now struggle to reach $100M domestic. When the foreign and DVD are added, it may make a small profit, but it will likely be negligible. The superstitious might suggest that Watchmen writer Alan Moore’s alleged curse may be to blame, but the reality is that word-of-mouth has been more negative than for any movie in recent memory.

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take, a.r. rachman, academy awards
Posted Mar 13th 2009 at 10:46 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 7964662 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/13/estimates-8/Wrestler-turned-movie+star+Dwayne+Johnson+leads+RACE+TO+WITCH+MOUNTAIN+to+a+%2424.25M+opening%2C+while+WATCHMEN+plummets+71%25%212009-03-14+05%3A46%3A03Steve+Mason

WITCH MOUNTAIN could “Rock” WATCHMEN for surprising weekend win!

One of the coolest ways to use the social networking platform Twitter is to find out what people are thinking, saying and Twittering about in real time. Here’s a small sampling of Tweets from the opening weekend of Watchmen (Warner Bros).

The Watchmen = Epic fail!

If you haven’t seen The Watchmen yet, I’d urge you to read the graphic novel first. Well, actually, I’d urge you to JUST read the GN. lol.

Watchmen.undecided,confused as superhero film with

very little superhero action.Convoluted story,but overall watchable. My opinion only

I was bored while watching Watchmen

Just got out of Watchmen…. Ouch, would spend the 9 quid on – can’t even find the humour, brain switched off 1 hour into the 3- BIG YAWN (more…)

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take, a.r. rachman, academy awards
Posted Mar 11th 2009 at 9:53 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Media Criticism, Reviews, Steve Mason's Box Office | 7804642 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/11/final-tracking-2/WITCH+MOUNTAIN+could+%E2%80%9CRock%E2%80%9D+WATCHMEN+for+surprising+weekend+win%212009-03-12+04%3A53%3A12Steve+Mason

WATCHMEN down 24% Saturday to a likely $55.65M 3-day; Is word-of-mouth “killing the masks?”

According to studio estimates, Watchmen (Warner Bros) will finish the weekend with an estimated $55.65M. After seizing $4.5M in Thursday midnight business, there were rumblings about $29M on opening day and an opening weekend of $70M+. When the picture scored a lesser but still good $25.2M Friday, weekend estimates were revised downward. As of Saturday morning, my projection was for $57M, and Watchmen came in even lower than that.

Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s densely written graphic novel tumbled 24% from Friday to Saturday. Granted, midnight shows took a lot of steam out of the movie, but that’s a pretty significant fall given that the Males 25 Plus demo – a key one for this film – were not likely part of the Thursday fanboy crowd and, despite the current unemployment rate, were working on Friday.

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 300, a.r. rachman, adam sandler
Posted Mar 8th 2009 at 11:14 am in Entertainment, Featured Story, Media Criticism, Steve Mason's Box Office | 7521075 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/08/studioestimates/WATCHMEN+down+24%25+Saturday+to+a+likely+%2455.65M+3-day%3B+Is+word-of-mouth+%22killing+the+masks%3F%222009-03-08+19%3A14%3A15Steve+Mason

WATCHMEN with $25.2M opening day, but “ticking downward,” now targeting $57M 3-day & $145M domestic!

“Who is watching the Watchmen?” Just about everyone…or so it seems.

The brand new film adaptation of the classic graphic comic Watchmen is a hit of monstrous proportions on its opening weekend, but not everyone loves it. In fact, not only is there a prominent character named Rohrschach (played by Oscar nominee Jackie Earle Haley), the film itself is serving as a Rohrschach Test for critics, fanboys and the broader public.

The Zack Snyder-directed $120M epic started with $4.5M in Thursday midnight business which is outstanding. There was no way for Watchmen to approach the $18.5M midnight start for lat summer’s The Dark Knight. First off, it is March and not the middle of summer blockbuster season. Kids have school. People are working. These are not the lazy days of July when it is easier for many to see a movie at midnight on Thursday, and hit the office late on Friday. The other factor is the movie’s rating. This is an R-rated movie, not PG-13 like The Dark Knight. (more…)

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 300, a.r. rahman, academy awards
Posted Mar 6th 2009 at 10:32 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Media Criticism, Steve Mason's Box Office | 7469827 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/06/estimates-7/WATCHMEN+with+%2425.2M+opening+day%2C+but+%22ticking+downward%2C%22+now+targeting+%2457M+3-day+%26amp%3B+%24145M+domestic%212009-03-07+06%3A32%3A56Steve+Mason

It will take more than WATCHMEN writer Moore’s curse to keep Zack Snyder’s adaptation from topping $60M!

Watchmen (Warner Bros) has followed a long and winding road, passing through the hands of some remarkable directors like Terry Gilliam (The Fisher King), Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler) and Paul Greengrass (United 93), before landing in the lap of the mastermind behind 2004’s stunning re-imagining of Dawn of the Dead and 2007’s March blockbuster 300. From the moment that the first trailer for Zack Snyder’s $120M comic book adaptation made its debut at midnight screenings of The Dark Knight in July, this has been a sure-fire mega-hit. Now, the big screen version of the 1986 graphic novel will be unleashed on Friday.

WATCHMEN writer Alan Moore has reportedly placed a curse on the movie

The original comic was written by Alan Moore and the lead artist was Dave Gibbons. The collaborators have radically different views of Snyder’s film adaptation.The latter has publicly expressed confidence in Snyder. Gibbons reveals to Wired magazine that at one point Joel Silver owned the film rights to Watchmen and that the producer was insistent that Arnold Schwarzenegger should play Dr. Manhattan. (That would have potentially been an unintentional disaster movie.)

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 300, academy awards, adam sandler
Posted Mar 4th 2009 at 11:23 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 7299852 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/04/watchmen-tracking/It+will+take+more+than+WATCHMEN+writer+Moore%27s+curse+to+keep+Zack+Snyder%27s+adaptation+from+topping+%2460M%212009-03-05+07%3A23%3A11Steve+Mason

They’re teen movie stars that wear purity rings: JONAS BROTHERS: THE 3-D CONCERT EXPERIENCE should easily win the weekend with a possible $30M!

Tween girls will unite this weekend and transform Kevin, Joe and Nick into box office stars. Last year, Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour ignited a box office wildfire with a $31.1M opening weekend despite only 683 3-D-equipped screens. Now Disney has the teen stars of the moment, Jonas Brothers, in the same sort of concert movie vehicle. The difference is that Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience will open on about twice as many screens.

The precise number of 3-D screens is difficult to pinpoint. Last month, Lionsgate confirmed 1,033 Digital 3-D runs for the remake of My Bloody Valentine, and although I have not been able to confirm a hard number for Coraline (Focus), it was probably close to 1,100. Now, as the expensive $100K per screen digital conversion creeps along for exhibitors, Jonas Brothers could reach 1,200 3-D screens. Unlike Coraline, the new Disney concert movie will not be boosted by traditional 2-D 35MM playdates.

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, a.r. rahman, academy award, adam sandler
Posted Feb 25th 2009 at 10:43 pm in Celebrity News, Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 6738275 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/02/25/finaltracking-2/They%27re+teen+movie+stars+that+wear+purity+rings%3A+JONAS+BROTHERS%3A+THE+3-D+CONCERT+EXPERIENCE+should+easily+win+the+weekend+with+a+possible+%2430M%212009-02-26+06%3A43%3A59Steve+Mason

Digital Crunch: CORALINE may be the only tween girl who hates the Jonas Brothers?

Most tween girls love the Jonas Brothers, but that’s not the case for the animated eleven-year-old title character from Henry Selick’s stop action animated 3-D masterpiece Coraline from Focus Features.  Featuring the voices of Dakota Fanning and Teri Hatcher, critics have swooned for this high-tech gem (89% Fresh in Rotten Tomatoes), and audiences are just beginning to discover the charms of this $60M adaptation of the Neil Gaiman novel.

The film opened at #3 for February 6-8 with a better-than-expected $16.8M start. Then, the film enjoyed a nice surge over the 4-day President’s Day weekend period ringing up another $18.8M in sales. Then, Coraline dipped a mere 23% over Oscar weekend finishing second overall with an excellent $11.28M for a new cume of $53.7M. (more…)

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 35mm, Coraline, dakota fanning
Posted Feb 23rd 2009 at 11:17 pm in Celebrity News, Entertainment, Steve Mason's Box Office | 6533013 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/02/23/coraline/Digital+Crunch%3A+CORALINE+may+be+the+only+tween+girl+who+hates+the+Jonas+Brothers%3F2009-02-24+07%3A17%3A32Steve+Mason

Studio Estimates: Tyler Perry is the undisputed box office king of Oscar weekend as MADEA GOES TO JAIL grabs a stunning $14.65M opening day for a $41.12M start!

Tyler Perry is the king of the Hollywood box office for Academy Awards weekend. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) debuted with just 2,032 playdates on Friday and scored a monstrous $14.65M for a Per Theatre Average of over $7,000. The final weekend take could be $41.12M.

The box office king....err....queen of Oscar weekend

Although I am not necessarily a fan of Tyler Perry movies, I am a Tyler Perry fan. He traveled the country for years doing live stage shows in order to fine-tune his act, and he identified an under-served audience – African Americans, and more specifically black, Christian women. Now he makes two movies a year, and he has two television series’ on TBS – House of Payne and Meet the Browns. He built a multi-million dollar studio in an under-served area in Atlanta, taking advantage of tax credits for building in a blighted neighborhood. Now he is building a mini-empire. He produces, writes, directs and stars in his projects, and he even helps to finance them.

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Tags: 3-d, a.r. rahman, academy awards, adam sandler, atlanta
Posted Feb 20th 2009 at 11:21 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 5665825 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/02/20/estimates-6/Studio+Estimates%3A+Tyler+Perry+is+the+undisputed+box+office+king+of+Oscar+weekend+as+MADEA+GOES+TO+JAIL+grabs+a+stunning+%2414.65M+opening+day+for+a+%2441.12M+start%212009-02-21+07%3A21%3A10Steve+Mason

No Academy Award for entrepreneur Tyler Perry, but MADEA GOES TO JAIL should easily win the Oscar weekend box office battle!

Filmmaker Tyler Perry, with Oprah Winfrey as a role model, has consistently outsmarted Hollywood moguls since his debut feature Diary of a Mad Black Women. That Gospel-infused “fat-suit-in-drag” comedy was made for a mere $5.5M and scored an opening weekend of $21.9M, ultimately generating $50.6M in domestic sales.

The entrepreneurial spirit is alive and well with Tyler Perry

At only 39, Perry is building an empire. He officially christened Tyler Perry Studios last October in Atlanta with a star-studded event. The multi-million dollar project is a sprawling 30-acre working production facility in southwestern Atlanta, and the opening night party featured appearances by legendary African American actors like Sidney Poitier, Cicely Tyson, Ruby Dee, Lou Gossett, Jr. and Will Smith.

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Tags: 3-d, a.r. rahman, adam sandler, atlanta, ben affleck
Posted Feb 19th 2009 at 9:57 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 5564225 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/02/19/final-tracking/No+Academy+Award+for+entrepreneur+Tyler+Perry%2C+but+MADEA+GOES+TO+JAIL+should+easily+win+the+Oscar+weekend+box+office+battle%212009-02-20+05%3A57%3A13Steve+Mason

What Recession? Biggest President’s Day Weekend in Hollywood History as FRIDAY THE THIRTEENTH scares up $19.3M Friday and has a stab at $47M for 4 Days!

Although America is suffering through its worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, there is no recession in the movie business. Led by the Warner Bros reboot of Friday the Thirteenth and a couple of surprisingly strong chick flicks, Hollywood’s top twelve grossing movies may grab a combined $201.5M over the long President’s Day weekend holiday, which marks an all-time best for the annual 4-day movie-going bonanza.

TOP GROSSING PRESIDENT’S WEEKENDS FOR HOLLYWOOD
- combined gross of top 12 films -
1. 2009 – $201.5M (estimated)
2. 2007 – $167.8M
3. 2008 – $141.1M
4. 2003 – $141M
5. 2005 – $137.1M

Director Marcus Nispel (2003’s Texas Chainsaw Massacre remake) and the Platinum Dunes production company have gotten the all-new Friday the Thirteenth off to a spectacular $19.3M opening day. That could translate to a well-above-expectations $47M by Tuesday morning. The new Jason restart quickly follows the Platinum Dunes success of The Unborn, released on January 9 to a $19.8M 3-day take. That David D. Goyer written and directed genre pic was made for just $16M, and The Unborn has generated an estimated $42M in the US.

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Tags: 3-d, a.r. rahman, academy awards, adam sandler, box office
Posted Feb 13th 2009 at 11:02 pm in Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 506709 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/02/13/estimates-5/What+Recession%3F+Biggest+President%E2%80%99s+Day+Weekend+in+Hollywood+History+as+FRIDAY+THE+THIRTEENTH+scares+up+%2419.3M+Friday+and+has+a+stab+at+%2447M+for+4+Days%212009-02-14+07%3A02%3A02Steve+Mason

Does Jen sell more tickets than Brad? – HE’S JUST NOT THAT INTO YOU easily wins the weekend with $27.4M 3-day!

The Drew Barrymore-produced romantic comedy He’s Just Not That Into You has made the jump from catch-phrase to self-help book to movie hit. With an all-star cast this classic ‘chick flick” appears to be winning the weekend after posting a spectacular $10.5M in opening day ticket sales. That should mean a 3-day start of $27.4M or so, easily out-pacing holdover Taken (Fox) and three other new wide releases. With this kind of opening, Not That Into You could reach almost $60M by the end of next weekend (a 4-day Presidents/Valentine’s combo), which would forecast a potential $90M in US ticket sales.

The new movie developed by New Line and now released by Warner Bros is based on the book of the same name co-written by former Sex & the City scribes Greg Behrendt and Liz Tucillo. The line itself has come to be a reassuring fallback for women in the dating scene (and I’m guessing single guys have adopted the mentality as well in the rough-and-tumble world of dating).

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Tags: 3-d, a tale of two sisters, a.r. rahman, aaron eckhart, academy award
Posted Feb 6th 2009 at 11:20 pm in Celebrity News, Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 4449432 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/02/06/estimates-4/Does+Jen+sell+more+tickets+than+Brad%3F+-+HE%27S+JUST+NOT+THAT+INTO+YOU+easily+wins+the+weekend+with+%2427.4M+3-day%212009-02-07+07%3A20%3A14Steve+Mason