Inspired in part by the Academy Award-winning Milk, California’s senate has passed a bill making slain San Francisco city supervisor Harvey Milk’s May 22 birthday a Golden State holiday. But the celluloid hero portrayed by Sean Penn bears little resemblance to the genuine article, who lashed out at political opponents as “Nazis,” purportedly staged a hate crime to engender support for a lagging campaign, and promoted Jim Jones to President Carter “as a man of the highest character” just a few months before the Peoples Temple leader orchestrated more than 900 murder-suicides. My City Journal article shows how Sean Penn’s Harvey Milk is as real as Toby Maguire’s Spider-Man. Only people so ignorant as to get their history from Hollywood would place the formerly obscure San Francisco city supervisor alongside the likes of Jesus Christ, George Washington, Christopher Columbus, and Martin Luther King in celebrating a holiday in his honor.

The film has become a focal point for liberal anger. Some of its fans have urged a nationwide boycott against Cinemark movie theaters after Cinemark CEO Alan Stock donated $10,000 to the “Yes on 8″ campaign. “He should not profit from now showing ‘Milk’ in his theaters,” says the boycott website. Penn himself used his Academy Award acceptance speech for Best Actor to lecture Prop 8 supporters that they can “anticipate their great shame and the shame in the eyes of their grandchildren if they continue.”

“Milk” is a fascinating celebration of a man who was both a symbol of gay empowerment and a martyr to gay rights. The film premiered on the 30th anniversary of his death in 1978. Harvey Milk only served as a member of San Francisco’s Board of Supervisors for 11 months before he, along with Mayor George Moscone, was gunned down at age 48 by Dan White, a former Supervisor who nursed political grudges against both men. White was convicted only of manslaughter after putting up a preposterous defense that too much junk food had impaired his judgment — a foretaste of even stranger legal arguments in later years as more and more people have sought to avoid responsibility for their actions.

Milk is celebrated in the film for his aggressive leadership on gay rights, especially for helping defeat the Briggs Initiative in 1978, which would have banned gays from teaching in public schools — a measure also opposed by Ronald Reagan and many conservatives. But the story of Harvey Milk as a politician was much more than just a symbol of gay liberation. While part of his strategy was to use the tools of old-time ethnic politics to build up a political machine whose organizing principle was sexual orientation, there was also at the heart of all of his campaigns the notion that government had to be responsive to the rights of individuals.

Although he espoused left-wing politics in his later years, until he was almost 40, Milk was a staunch political conservative. Biographer Randy Shilts notes that he was “a hard-boiled conservative in the laissez-faire capitalist mold.” Armistead Maupin, the noted gay writer, writes that “Ridiculous as it seems to me now, Harvey and I had both been naval officers and Goldwater Republicans.” While working on Wall Street, Shilts noted that Milk and his first lover, Joe Campbell, would spend much of the fall of 1964 rising early and enthusiastically handing out flyers for Goldwater at subway stops. “Campbell even began to doggedly mimic Milk’s stubborn arguments for Goldwater, much to the dismay of their theater friends,” writes Shilts in his book “The Mayor of Castro Street.”

A combination of things moved Milk’s politics: the Stonewall Riots of 1969, the Vietnam War and Richard Nixon’s invasion of Cambodia were the most influential things that lurched him to the left.  Even so, in his later years Milk would still sometimes quote Goldwater’s 1964 acceptance speech at the GOP convention: “Equality, rightly understood, as our founding fathers understood it, leads to liberty and to the emancipation of creative differences. Wrongly understood, as it has been so tragically in our time, it leads first to conformity and then to despotism.”

In 1970, Milk settled in San Francisco and opened an independent camera store in the then-emerging gay neighborhood around Castro Street. His interest in local politics began when, not long after opening his business, he was visited by a state bureaucrat who demanded a pre-payment of sales taxes on products he hadn’t yet sold. Milk, struggling to meet his payroll, was infuriated and called the move “taxation without common sense.”

Next, a local public school teacher asked if he could borrow a film projector because none of those at his school worked. Then a local business association tried to discourage city bureaucrats from issuing business licenses to gays. Milk promptly organized the still-popular Castro Street Fair to demonstrate the clout of the gay business community.

He ran for office several times, appealing for gay votes but also as an angry populist demanding government accountability. “Milk has something for everybody,” was his slogan.

The story of Harvey Milk told in Sean Penn’s film is an exciting one, and well told despite some unfortunate political correctness. The film “Milk” is a powerful statement in favor of tolerance and the power of one individual to bring about change. Like Spike Lee’s “Malcolm X,” the film takes a controversial historical figure about whom many people have only a sketchy idea and makes him both human and accessible. I only wish that the filmmakers had had the courage to tell “the rest of the story” about his political odyssey.

Slumdog Millionaire is about to win the Hollywood's Grand Prize

The “Battle Royale” of the night is Mickey Rouke from The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) vs. Sean Penn in Milk (Focus) in the Best Actor category. There have been two ties in major categories in Academy Award history. The first was in 1932 when Frederic March in Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde shared Best Actor with Wallace Beery for The Champ. (March had one more vote, but in that era, any finish within 3 votes was rules a tie.) Then in 1968, Katherine Hepburn for The Lion In Winter and Barbara Streisand for Funny Girl tied for Best Actress. If there was any justice, Rourke and Penn would share the award. In any other year, either of them would be a lock. Forced to make a pick, I’m going with Rourke.

Does Streep's upset of Winslet at the SAG Awards set the stage for Meryl's third Oscar win?

Kate Winslet is on the cover of Time Magazine, and she has picked up a wheelbarrow full of hardware during this awards cycle, but a fair number of voters got their fill of Kate when she pulled off the double-win at the Golden Globes. My upset special is Meryl Streep for Doubt (Miramax). This is her 15th career nomination, and she has not won an Academy Award in 25 years (Sophie’s Choice in 1982). That is too long for the most-revered actress in history to go without getting one of those golden guys. Streep won the SAG Award for Lead Actress, and I think she has a real shot here. (It would be a huge upset.)

Finally if my predix hold up, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) would win only 2 Oscars – Best Visual Effects and Best Makeup – despite 13 nominations. That would be the fewest wins for any movie with 13 or more nominations. In fact, 2 wins would be among the poorest showings ever for a movie with 11 nominations or more.

Tied for the biggest shutout in Oscar history; Benjamin Button could win for Makeup and Visual Effects

FEWEST OSCAR WINS FOR MOVIES WITH 11 NOMINATIONS OR MORE
1. The Color Purple – 0 wins (11 nominations)
2. The Turning Point – 0 wins (11 nominations)
3. Chinatown – 1 win (11 nominations)
4. Johnny Belinda – 1 win (12 nominations)
5. Becket – 1 win (12 nominations)
6. Mr. Smith Goes to Washington – 1 win (11 nominations)
7. Pride of the Yankees – 1 win (11 nominations)
8. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 2 wins (13 nominations) – predicted
9. Rebecca – 2 wins (11 nominations)
10. Sergeant York – 2 wins (11 nominations)
11. A Passage To India – 2 wins (11 nominations)
12. Judgement at Nuremberg – 2 wins (11 nominations)

After weeks of obsessive study, relentless debate and intense soul-searching, here are my final Oscar predictions for all 24 categories.

BEST PICTURE
My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Milk

BEST ACTOR
My Pick – Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Consensus Pick – Sean Penn, Milk or Rourke
Dark Horse – None

BEST ACTRESS
My Pick – Meryl Streep, Doubt
Consensus Pick – Kate Winslet, The Reader
Dark Horse – Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My Pick – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Consensus Pick – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dark Horse – None

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My Pick – Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Consensus Pick – Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dark Horse – Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

BEST DIRECTOR
My Pick – Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Milk screenwriter Justin Lance Black

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
My Pick – Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Consensus Pick – Andrew Stanton, WALL-E
Dark Horse – Martin McDonagh, In Bruges

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
My Pick – Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – David Hare, The Reader

BEST EDITING
My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Frost/Nixon

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
My Pick – Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight

BEST ART DIRECTION
My Pick – The Dark Knight
Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse – The Duchess

BEST SOUND MIXING
My Pick – The Dark Knight
Consensus Pick – The Dark Knight
Dark Horse – Slumdog Millionaire

BEST SOUND EDITING
My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – The Dark Knight

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
My Pick – The Duchess
Consensus Pick – The Duchess
Dark Horse – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
My Pick – A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – A. R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
My Pick – Waltz with Bashir
Consensus Pick – Waltz with Bashir
Dark Horse – The Class

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
My Pick – Man on Wire
Consensus Pick – Man On Wire
Dark Horse – Trouble the Water

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
My Pick – WALL-E
Consensus Pick – WALL-E
Dark Horse – Kung Fu Panda

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
My Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse – The Dark Knight

BEST MAKEUP
My Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse – The Dark Knight

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
My Pick – Jaiho from Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Jaiho from Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Peter Gabriel, Down to Earth from WALL-E

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
My Pick – Toyland (Spielzeugland)
Consensus Pick – Auf der Strecke
Dark Horse – The Pig

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
My Pick – Presto
Consensus Pick – La Maison en Petits Cubes
Dark Horse – This Way Up

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
My Pick – The Conscience of Nhem En
Consensus Pick – The Witness
Dark Horse – The Final Inch

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) is the odds-on Best Picture winner, and it expanded to about 600 additional playdates this weekend for a total screen count of 2,224. The other four contenders for Hollywood’s biggest prize, however, are on a combined 2,508 screens. That means that they are essentially done with their theatrical engagements in the US (barring a truly shocking upset). Even if you wanted to see the other four nominees, you might have trouble finding them at your local multiplex – especially if you live outside a major city.

The United States has approximately 40,000 individual movie screens. Only 11% of them are showing a Best Picture nominee this weekend. That speaks to how decidedly unpopular these movies are. For comparison in 1998, there were about 34,000 screens in the US, and on Oscar weekend 7,586 of them had a Best Picture nominee showing. That’s 22% of all American screens showing a Best Picture contender.

Here is how the Oscar weekend screen counts for 1998 and this year stack up.

1998
Titanic – 3,169 screens
Good Will Hunting – 1,805 screens
As Good As It Gets – 1,604 screens
L.A. Confidential – 723 screens
The Full Monty – 285 screens

2009
Slumdog Millionaire – 2,244 screens
The Reader – 962 screens
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 754 screens
Milk – 411 screens
Frost/Nixon – 381 screens

Slumdog Millionaire has moved from quirky underdog to beloved box office juggernaut. This weekend, Danny Boyle’s Mumbai masterpiece will close in on the magical $100M barrier.

OSCAR WEEKEND PERFORMANCE FOR BEST PICTURE NOMINEES

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
2,224 screens
$2.1M Friday
$7.5M 3-Day
$97.46M cume
$118M Projected Cume

THE READER
962 screens
$705,000 Friday
$2.53M 3-Day
$22.9M cume
$29M Projected Cume

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
754 screens
$320,000 Friday
$1.12M 3-Day
$124.1M cume
$129M Projected Cume

MILK
411 screens
$265,000 Friday
$928,000 3-Day
$28M cume
$34M Projected Cume

FROST/NIXON
381 screens
$494,000 Friday
$17.22M 3-Day
$21M Projected Cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Gays deserve equal rights. As a human being, that’s the only position I can possibly hold. However, you can be in complete solidarity with the cause of gay rights and not care much for Milk. (Whether you will be allowed to claim that distinction sincerely is yet another question. During the last election, Slate’s Jacob Weisberg wrote that the only reason you might oppose Obama is that you are a bigot. Is that the only reason one might dislike the similarly politically correct Milk?)

For most critics, their verdict on Milk—positive or negative—seems less their opinion of the picture than of gay rights. How else to explain a 93 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes for what is essentially a well-produced, cause-driven movie of the week?

Milk often lapses into hagiography—the biography of a saint. A more compelling picture would have vigorously illustrated Harvey Milk’s fears and errors; the lack of much other than praise yields a cardboard cutout and not an individual of depth and doubt. Similarly, Harvey Milk’s assassain, Dan White, is presented as a cartoonish stand-in for all Christians. Yet there are gay Christians in this world—surely Harvey Milk himself knew some. Christians will be mightily offended to see their faith smeared under a single broad stroke—just as gays are sickened at movies and TV shows that reduce them to fey stereotype.

Which, ironically, seems to happen here. The hallmark of Sean Penn’s Harvey Milk is a collection of stereotypically mincing affectations which, had they been presented in a film not made by a gay director and aimed directly at gay sympathies, would have had studio executives begging forgiveness and burning the negatives.

Milk falls short in all those details as it falls short overall: Charged with the difficult task of infusing drama into ballot initiatives and minor campaigns for office, the picture often becomes a posed exchange of platitudes that no one says aloud outside of a high-school civics class.

(Oh–and what’s the deal with the over-the-top promotional campaign all last fall for mostly-unknown screenwriter Dustin Lance Black? Who’s that for? Weirdest thing I’ve ever seen in movie advertising, ever. Ever.)

Harvey Milk did some good and important things. Lest conservatives forget, his campaign against Proposition 6 was supported by no less a luminary than Ronald Reagan. Milk died far too young, and at the hands of an unstable, evil individual who got off with a slap on the wrist. Those are the facts, and they deserve consideration separate from the entertainment and artistic value of the picture that bears his name.

Milk the movie is valuable and important and necessary and, in a narrow way, interesting. Plumbing is necessary, too. Doesn’t mean I want to watch it for two hours.

But, in the world of gambling, you always want to look for value. What are the films and performances with longer odds that would be worth a wager on Sunday? My purpose here is to establish a betting line for each of the six major categories, and then find the value bet in each category.

Question: Who will win Best Picture? Answer: Still, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

BEST PICTURE
Slumdog Millionaire – 1/7
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 6/1
Milk – 20/1
Frost/Nixon – 30/1
The Reader – 50/1

VALUE: I believe that in order to win an Academy Award, passion is required. Slumdog Millionaire has a passionate zeal among its supporters that will make it virtually unbeatable. Although I have made The Curious Case of Benjamin Button the second choice here, I give it very little chance of winning. It has major studio backing (Paramount), and it is certainly well-respected, but it is more admired than loved. So, for me the betting value is in Milk. Aside from Slumdog, it is the movie with the largest bloc of zealous fans. Gay and gay-friendly Academy members love the movie, and in the shadow of the passage of Proposition 8 in California, Milk is worth a $2 bet at the window.

Sean Penn's portrayal of Harvey Milk is now a decided underdog to Mickey Rourke

BEST ACTOR
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler – 1/2
Sean Penn, Milk – 3/2
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon – 10/1
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 25/1
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor – 35/1

VALUE: After colorful, rambling, verging on obscene acceptance speeches at both the Golden Globes and the BAFTA Awards, Mickey Rourke is the true favorite for Best Actor. Rourke has also campaigned hard, paying the paying the price for that Golden Globe win by schmoozing each and every one of those 95 Hollywood Foreign Press members. Penn just doesn’t play that awards campaign game at all, but actors love him. The only real betting value here is Penn, who still has a chance of winning his second Oscar.

It has been 25 years since Mery Streep won an Oscar

BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, The Reader – 1/2
Meryl Streep, Doubt – 5/2
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married – 4/1
Angelina Jolie, Changeling – 25/1
Melissa Leo, Frozen River – 35/1

VALUE: It is Kate Winslet’s year. Just ask anybody. She has two outstanding awards-caliber performances in The Reader and Revolutionary Road. If rules would have allowed, she might have been nominated twice in the Best Actress category. She’s 0-fer-5 lifetime at the Academy Awards and deserves to win, but she can be beaten. Jolie and Leo have no shot. Hathaway is the 3rd choice in the field, and a win is not inconceivable, but Streep is the value bet. The undisputed greatest living actress has not won an Oscar in 25 years, despite the fact that this is her eleventh nomination since winning for Sophie’s Choice in 1983.

Ledger is a lock

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heather Ledger, The Dark Knight – 1/100
Josh Brolin, Milk – 20/1
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder – 25/1
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt – 30/1
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road – 50/1

VALUE: None. There is no value in this category. Heath Ledger will win Best Supporting Actor posthumously. If you are unfamiliar with how odds work, 1/100 means that you would have to bet $100 to win just $1, and even then, it would be tough to get anybody to take your wager.

Marisa Tomei's "stripper with a heart of gold" in THE WRESTLER may earn her a second Oscar

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona – 1/2
Viola Davis, Doubt – 3/1
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler – 5/1
Amy Adams, Doubt – 12/1
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 15/1

VALUE: This is, by far, the most competitive of the major awards. The longest shot in the field, Taraji P. Henson from Ben Button, is only a 15-1 longshot. Woody Allen has a knack for helping actresses win in this category (ask Dianne Wiest , who scored for both Hannah and Her Sisters and Bullets Over Broadway). That points to a win for Penelope Cruz, who was raw and sexy as Maria Elena in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Davis can certainly win for her fleeting-but-powerful turn in Doubt, but my value bet is Marisa Tomei. Her first win, for My Cousin Vinny, was viewed by many as a fluke. In fact, there is an urban legend that she really didn’t win. The story goes that Jack Palance, who presented that year, read the wrong name (the legend claims that Vanessa Redgrave was the actual winner for Howard’s End). In reality, there is no doubt that Tomei is an Oscar winning actress, who gives her career-best performance in The Wrestler.

The uncompromising David Fincher

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire – 1/7
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 6/1
Gus Van Sant, Milk – 20/1
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon – 25/1
Stephen Daldry, The Reader – 35/1

VALUE: Nobody is going to beat Danny Boyle, but if I was looking for a strong value bet, I would wager on Fincher. He is a visionary with some amazing movies on his resume, including Se7en, Fight Club and Zodiac. He has worked with countless actors and industry types, and his uncompromising nature makes him tough to like, but easy to respect. If there were an upset in this category, Fincher is the only guy who could pull it off.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Only one of this year’s Best Picture nominees has inspired any real passion from the broad public. The almost-certain Best Picture winner is Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight), and its devotees, including critics and members of the Academy (not to mention yours truly), have made it a word-of-mouth smash hit. The Danny Boyle-directed feel-good Bollywood fusion movie made for a meager $14M added another $2.05M or so on Friday and is charting a 3-day course for about $7.4M. That will give the Slumdog a $77.4M take, and it could reach $90M-$95M before it’s through in American theatres.

David Fincher's The Curious Case of Benjamin is the only 2009 Best Picture nominee to top $100M

The other four Best Picture noms are The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount), Milk (Focus), The Reader (Weinstein) and Frost/Nixon (Universal). I approached  Benjamin Button as a little kid might approach broccoli. (You’re not allowed to leave the table until you eat it, and it’s supposed to be good for you.) It’s very long, a bit pretentious, and not nearly as good as other David Fincher-directed films like Se7en and Zodiac. After opening strong, the movie is now fading despite 13 Oscar nominations, selling about $640,000 in tickets Friday for a likely $2.24M 3-day. The cume will be a respectable $120M by Monday, but how many people have you actually heard saying, “I love Benjamin Button!”

The Reader, Milk and Frost/Nixon are now on as many screens as they will ever be, and they are certainly not setting the world on fire. Here’s how the five movies nominated for Hollywood’s biggest prize are performing this weekend.

BOX OFFICE PERFORMANCE OF BEST PICTURE NOMINEES FEBRUARY 6-8
Slumdog Millionaire – $2.05M Friday – $7.4M 3-day – $77.4M cume
Benjamin Button – $640K Friday – $2.4M 3-day – $120M cume
The Reader – $605K Friday – $2.3M 3-day – $16M cume
Milk – $285K Friday – $1.1M 3-day – $25.2M cume
Frost/Nixon – $189K Friday – $753K 3-day – $15.6M cume

Aside from Slumdog Millionaire, there’s not much box office upside here. Ben Button is unlikely to reach $130M, while Milk will probably fall short of $30M. The Reader could add a possible $8M before its done, and Frost/Nixon won’t even get to $20M domestic.

Frank Langella and Michael Sheen in Frost/Nixon, unlikely to top $20M domestic

PROJECTED CUMES OF 2009 BEST PICTURE NOMINEES
Benjamin Button – $127M cume (projected)
Slumdog Millionaire – $95M cume (projected)
Milk – $29M cume (projected)
The Reader – $23M cume (projected)
Frost/Nixon – $19M cume (projected)
Combined projected cume: $293M

If those numbers hold, the 2009 awards season will have given us three of the six weakest performing Best Picture nominees of the last decade.

TOP 10 LOWEST GROSSING BEST PICTURE NOMINEES OF THE LAST DECADE
1. 2006 – Letters From Iwo Jima – $13.75M cume
2. 2009 – Frost/Nixon – $20M cume (projected)
3. 2009 – The Reader – $25M cume (projected)
4. 2005 – Capote – $28.75M
5. 1999 – The Insider – $29M
6. 2009 – Milk – $30M cume (projected)
7. 2005 – Good Night & Good Luck – $31.5M cume
8. 2002 – The Pianist – $32.5M cume
9. 2006 – Babel – $34.3M cume
10. 2008 – There Will Be Blood – $40.2M cume

Now just two weeks away, the 2009 Oscar ceremony could be a Waterloo of sorts for the Motion Picture Academy. First-time Oscar producers Bill Condon and Lawrence Mark have promised something daring. A re-imagining of the Academy Awards telecast, coming off last year’s all-time lowest ratings.

Hugh Jackman, the talented Australian actor, will serve as host. He previously won an Emmy for his hosting of the Tony Awards a few years back (Here’s his opening musical number from the broadcast.) Yes he can sing and dance, but can he overcome the lack of appeal of the movies that the Academy has chosen to honor?

As a hardcore movie fan, I will be watching, but the average American doesn’t care about enough of these movies to draw a substantial audience. This group of Best Picture nominees seems destined to be the second-least popular group of nominees in the past fifteen years with an ultimate combined cume of just $293M.

Thandie Newton and Matt Dillon in Best Picture winner Crash, which grossed $54.5M domestic

WEAKEST TOTAL GROSS FOR BEST PICTURE NOMINEES
- last 15 years -
1. 2005 – $245M
Crash, Brokeback, Capote, Good Night & Good Luck, Munich
2. 2009 – $293M (projected)
Slumdog, Ben Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader
3. 2006 – $296M
Departed, Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen
4. 1996 – $306M
English Patient, Fargo, Jerry Maguire, Secrets & Lies, Shine
5. 2007 – $357M
No Country, Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood
6. 1993 – $368M
Schindler’s List, Fugitive, Name of the Father, The Piano, Remains of the Day
7. 1995 – $378M
Braveheart, Apollo 13, Babe, Il Postino, Sense & Sensibility
8. 2004 – $401M
Million Dollar Baby, Aviator, Finding Neverland, Ray, Sideways
9. 1998 – $440M
Shakespeare in Love, Saving Private Ryan, Life is Beautiful, Elizabeth, Thin Red Line
10. 1994 – $543M
Forrest Gump, Four Weddings & a Funeral, Pulp Fiction, Quiz Show, Shawshanke Redemption

I would love to be wrong. I’d love to believe that keeping the identities of presenters a secret, and a song-and-dance man from Down Under, and the sight of Brad and Angelina on the red carpet, and a gutsy, little independent movie from Mumbai, and a guarantee from producers that the show won’t exceed three hours, and the dramatic posthumous recognition for Heath Ledger – that it will all work to draw a huge television audience. But I am feeling more certain that ABC’s Oscars telecast this year may go down as the lowest rated ever.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The result is a well-reviewed (56% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) action film that will help to satisfy blockbuster-hungry audiences waiting for Warner Bros’ Watchmen (due March 6). Taken has scored big on its opening weekend. After grabbing an estimated $9.4M, the movie surged on Saturday to $11.62M (up almost 24% from opening day) and, despite today’s Super Bowl, the film could reach $24.62M according to studio estimates. That will be more than enough to win the Super Bowl 3-day, and positive word-of-mouth could get this one into the $70M-$75M range domestic.

Prolific French filmmaker Luc Besson

Taken re-teams French action maestro Besson with director Morel, who previously worked together on the brilliant District B13 ($411K opening – $1.2M in the US – $6.9M in France). For the prolific Besson, this movie marks the all-time best US opening for one of his films.

ALL-TIME BEST DOMESTIC OPENINGS FOR LUC BESSON FILMS
- as producer, writer and/or director -
1. Taken (producer/writer) – $24.62M opening (projected)
2. The Fifth Element (writer/director) – $17M opening – $63.8M domestic
3. Transporter 2 (producer/writer) – $16.5M opening – $43M domestic
4. Kiss of the Dragon (producer/writer) – $13.3M opening – $36.8M domestic
5. Transporter 3 (producer/writer) – $12M opening – $31.7M domestic
6. The Transporter (producer/writer) – $9.1M opening – $25.2M domestic
7. Point of No Return (writer) – $7.1M opening – $30M domestic
8. The Messenger: The Story of Joan of Arc (producer/writer/director) – $6.3M opening – $14.2M domestic
9. The Professional (producer/writer/director) – $5.3M opening – $19.5M domestic
10. Arthur & the Invisibles (producer/writer/director) – $4.3M opening – $15.1M domestic

Besson has a tremendous international following, and Taken was already a hit before it ever opened in the US. The movie has already been released in many overseas territories, generating $68.8M in 2008. That includes $11.2M in the UK and $9.4M in France. With international numbers like that, it’s not a huge surprise that the picture is working so well in the states.

The irrepressible Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) is headed for a #2 finish for the weekend. The Adam Sandler-produced comedy sold another $4.2M in tickets on its third Friday, and Kevin James has ridden that dopey Segway to another strong 3-day of about $14M. By Monday morning, PB:MC will have banked a stellar $83M.

Poster for the 1998 Japanese film Ringu

In 1998, Hollywood discovered a Japanese film called Ringu, and they have been remaking Asian horror films ever since. Director Gore Verbinski turned the get-under-your-skin creepy Ringu into an American version called, simply, The Ring, and that 2002 movie starring Naomi Watts grossed a spectacular $129M.

The latest Asian horror adaptation is The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount), based on the 2003 South Korean thriller Janghwa, Hongryeon (released in the US as A Tale of Two Sisters). The movie was a sensation in Korea where it remains the all-time highest-grossing horror film, and now Elizabeth Banks (W.) and David Strathairn (Good Night and Good Luck) headline the American version. After grabbing a decent $4.3M to start the weekend, The Uninvited got a 9% Saturday bump, and it will likely finish the weekend in third-place with $10.51M.

That is slightly disappointing given the performance of some other recent Asian horror remakes. (Note these are all based on Japanese films with The Uninvited being the first South Korean adaptation.)

2002 – The Ring – $15M opening – $129.1M cume
2004 – The Grudge – $39.1M opening – $110.3M cume
2005 – The Ring Two – $35M opening – $76.2M cume
2005 – Dark Water – $9.9M opening – $25.4M cume
2006 – The Grudge 2 – $20.8M opening – $39.1M cume
2006 – Pulse – $8.2M opening – $20.2M cume
2008 – One Missed Call – $12.5M opening – $26.9M cume
2008 – The Eye – $12.4M opening – $31.4M cume
2009 – The Uninvited – $10.51M opening (projected)

In final studio estimates, Hotel for Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) has managed a surprise fourth-place finish with $8.7M for a new cume of $48.2M. Meanwhile, the Super Bowl has pushed Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (Warner Bros) to #5 with $8.6M. Walt Kowalski has now growled his way to an amazing $110.5M cume.

Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) has received a nice boost from and its 10 Oscar nominations, adding another $7.58M. This micro-budgeted movie ($14M) which almost went straight to video when Warner bros didn’t quite know what to do wth it has grossed a staggering $67M. Also this weekend, director Danny Boyle has won the ultimate Oscar bellweather, the DGA award, and that may seal the deal for Best Picture and Best Director at the upcoming Academy Awards.

The other new wide release is the horribly-reviewed New In Town (Lionsgate), starring Academy Award winner Renee Zellweger. The romantic comedy that makes sport of small town America opened soft, but it could have been worse. The movie coaxed about $2.4M on Friday (#7 for the day), and Lionsgate says the movie will finish the weekend with $6.75M, enough for eighth place. That number marks only the eighth-best opening of Zellweger’s career.

ALL-TIME BEST RENEE ZELLWEGER OPENINGS
- non-animated –
1. Me, Myself & Irene – $24.2M opening
2, Cinderella Man – $18.3M opening
3. Jerry Maguire – $17M opening
4. Cold Mountain – $14.5M opening
5. Leatherheads – $12.6M opening
6. Bridget Jones’s Diary – $10.7M opening
7. Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason – $8.6M opening
8. The Bachelor – $7.4M opening
9. Nurse Betty – $7.1M opening
10. New In Town -$6.75M opening (projected)

There is not much of an Oscar bounce for the current crop of Best Picture nominees. Stephen Daldry’s The Reader (Weinstein) and Milk (Focus) starring Sean Penn are the last two of the big five to go wide, and neither film has scored big.

David Kross and Kate Winslet in The Reader

The Reader, which has Academy Award nominations for Best Picture, Best Actress: Kate Winslet, Best Director: Daldry, Best Adapted Screenplay: David Hare and Best Cinematography, expanded to 1,002 locations on Friday and could only muster $700,000. That should project to about $2.37M or so for the 3-day and a new cume of $12.64M.

Meanwhile, the Gus Van Sant-directed Milk, which some pundits believe may be peaking with Academy voters at just the right time, will not be a box office juggernaut. Despite 8 Oscar nominations, Milk managed only a $471 Per Theatre Average on Friday on 882 screens. The first wide weekend for the Harvey Milk biopic will likely yield only $1.41M for a new domestic cume of $23.41M.

Golden Globe winner Sean Penn as slain gay rights leader Harvey Milk

In all, the five Best Picture nominees, now all in wide release, have combined for less than $17M for the weekend. By Monday, the five movies contending for Hollywood’s biggest prize have a combined total domestic gross of just $234M. I am projecting that Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Reader will finish with a total of about $285M in US ticket sales, which would be the second-worst total of the last 15 years.

For example last year, the five Best Picture nominees grossed a combined $357M, so the 2009 crop will be down a full 20% from 2008. Snubbing movies like The Dark Knight and Gran Torino, Academy voters have narrowed the field to what amounts to a very expensive arthouse movie (Benjamin Button), a surprise crowd-pleaser (Slumdog Millionaire) and three niche art titles with very specific audiences (Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Reader). When the ratings for the Oscar telecast are dismal, the Academy will have its own voters to blame.

The worst combined gross of the five Best Picture nominees in the last 15 years was in 2005 when Crash, Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Good Night & Good Luck and Munich generated $245M at the box office. That resulted in the all-time third-worst television rating for the Academy Awards broadcast.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Taken (Fox) – $9.4M, $2,953 PTA, $9.4M cume
2. NEW – The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $4.3M, $1,834 PTA, $4.3M cume
3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $4.2M, $1,310 PTA, $73.57M cume
4. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $2.6M, $862 PTA, $104.54M cume
5. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) – $2.55M, $867 PTA, $28.13M cume
6. NEW – New in Town (Lionsgate) – $2.4M, $1,236 PTA, $2.4M cume
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.3M, $1,630 PTA, $61.86M cume
8. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2M, $633 PTA, $41.52M cume
9. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) – $1.5M, $1,067 PTA, $41.84M cume
10. Bride Wars (Fox) – $1.25M, $630 PTA, $51.61M cume
11. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $1.1M, $517 PTA, $114.02M cume
12. Inkheart (Warner Bros) – $975,000, $367 PTA, $10.06M cume
13. Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $850,000, $789 PTA, $14.22M
14. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $775,000, $466 PTA, $21.07M cume
15. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $730,000, $1,011 PTA, $11.46M cume
16. The Reader (Weinstein) – $700,000, $699 PTA, $10.97M cume
17. Notorious (Fox Searchlight) – $590,000, $546 PTA, $33.9M cume
18. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $425,000, $385 PTA, $13.33M cume
19. Milk (Focus Features) – $415,000, $471 PTA, $22.39M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Taken (Fox) – $24.62M, $7,736 PTA, $24.62M cume
2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $14M, $4,367 PTA, $83.37M cume
3. NEW – The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $10.51M, $4,485 PTA, $10.51M cume
4. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.7M, $3,160 PTA, $48.22M cume
5. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $8.6M, $2,852 PTA, $110.54M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $7.68M, $4,703 PTA, $67.24M cume
7. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) – $7.2M, $2,447 PTA, $32.78M cume
8. NEW – New in Town (Lionsgate) – $6.75M, $3,478 PTA, $6.75M cume
9. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) – $4.26M, $3,030 PTA, $44.6M cume
10. Inkheart (Warner Bros) – $3.7M, $1,394 PTA, $12.79M cume
11. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $3.61M, $1,698 PTA, $116.54M cume
12. Bride Wars (Fox) – $3.57M, $1,798 PTA, $53.93M cume
13. Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.65M, $2,469 PTA, $16.03M
14. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $2.53M, $1,524 PTA, $22.83M cume
15. The Reader (Weinstein) – $2.37M, $2,369 PTA, $12.64M cume
16. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $2.35M, $3,255 PTA, $13.08M cume
17. Notorious (Fox Searchlight) – $1.7M, $1,574 PTA, $35M cume
18. Milk (Focus) – $1.41M, $1,603 PTA, $23.41M cume
19. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $1.39M, $1,265 PTA, $14.31M cume