This week, even the great George Lucas has his hands full with a Valentine’s Day timed release. This weekend’s predictions and revenue results go as follows:

1. The Vow ($37 Million) – There are forces at work that can even beat “Star Wars” sometimes. A romantic drama on the weekend before Valentine’s Day will be one of those. The timing on this film really couldn’t be better.

2. Safe House ($32 Million) – Denzel Washington is also such a force at the box office. Big Hollywood’s own John Nolte had some great comments on this in one of his Daily Call Sheets this week. This will be yet another action film of Mr. Washington’s to beat projections. Liam Neeson showed how reliable this audience is right now with “The Grey”’s success. Look for even better results here.

3. Star Wars: Episode One – The Phantom Menace 3D ($22 Million) – “Star Wars” audiences are loyal, but this particular franchise entry was a great disappointment to general audiences in 1999 (three words: Jar Jar Binks). On the bright side, it will open higher than 2008’s animated “The Clone Wars,” the franchise’s current lowest opener.

4. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($19 Million) – The Rock takes over for Brendan Fraser, which in itself isn’t bad. The problem is the first one opened when 3-D had a lot more appeal with audiences. That’s not the case today, and this one will finish far behind its predecessor’s overall gross ($101 million domestic).

5. Chronicle ($10 Million) – The “found footage” films usually post significant drops on their second weekend. This one won’t be immune.

Does Sensei have it right, or will others prevail?

Speaking of the big game, this weekend’s predictions and revenue results go as follows:

1. Chronicle ($17 million) - Films usually have big drops because of the Super Bowl on Sunday, so the key to winning will be the film that can start the strongest on Friday. Currently, “Chronicle” has that advantage with its advance social media presence and appeal to action audiences, which are very strong right now.

2. The Woman In Black ($12 million) - Daniel Radcliffe opens a film without his “Harry Potter” safety net. Sadly, as has been the pattern with all CBS film releases, marketing hasn’t been strong. The picture is relying entirely on Radcliffe’s name to try and pull a weekend win. That points to a diminished opening, especially on Super Bowl weekend.

3. The Grey ($9.5 Million) - Super Bowl weekend is very rough on holdovers. This will be a large drop, but the film will continue to do very well at the box office overall.

4. Big Miracle ($9.1 Million) - This film will beat some projections, but not by much. Family audiences will take the plunge, but that can only take you so far in just 1700 theaters.

5. Underworld Awakening ($6 Million) – Keeping in line with those big Super Bowl weekend drops, even Ms. Beckinsale will be greatly affected by the gridiron classic.

Bonus Call: “How about a sports one?”

#. Super Bowl XLVI (Patriots 34, Giants 24) – In an epic rematch of Super Bowl XLII, look for Tom Brady and his high-powered offense to finally outlast New York’s incredibly sound defense.

Happy football weekend, everyone.

This weekend’s predictions and revenue results go as follows:

1. The Grey ($15 Million) – This wilderness action film falls right in place for its target audience and is receiving strong critical reviews. That should allow enough momentum to take the top spot. Be warned. Liam Neeson has very strong box office appeal in action films (“Unknown,” “Taken”), and has a solid history of beating box office projections.

2. Underworld Awakening ($12.4 Million) - The sci-fi sequel continues to do well and is hunting at an “Underworld Evolution”-like box office pace. Look for another solid runner-up finish for Ms. Beckinsale–A.K.A. “Ms. January.”

3. Red Tails ($12 Million) – Sensei nailed this film’s opening with his $19 million call. Again, look for a solid hold and a gross that could even give “Underworld” a run for its money this weekend. You’ll also find a great article here from Christian Toto addressing the film’s success.

4. Man On A Ledge ($11.2 Million) – This particular film is offering ticket discounts, much like last year’s “The Lincoln Lawyer.” ”Lawyer” had the benefit of having Matthew McConaughey, though, who remains a healthy box office draw. The cheaper tickets will boost the numbers, but not to “Lincoln Lawyer”-like heights. “Ledge” will have to corner action audiences more on concept than star appeal. That’s a tough order with “The Grey” in direct competition.

5. Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close ($10 Million) - The indie book adaptation will benefit from its recent Oscar nominations but only slightly. The “Oscar boost” at the box office for nominated films is nowhere near where it used to be.

Bonus Calls:

6. One For The Money ($8.5 Million) – A ticket special is also being offered on this one. The film is similar in design to 2010’s “The Bounty Hunter” but will come nowhere close to that film’s $20 million opening. Sadly, star Katherine Heigl will again find herself with disappointing box office numbers, much like her previous action comedy “Killers.”

Does Sensei have it right, or will another film top the weekend?

I’ve been looking around for answers, but all I hear is noise. Everyone is pointing fingers at the Left or the Right, blaming Hollywood or Capitol Hill. Time is flying by too quickly for petty arguments. My children’s future won’t wait. I’ve got to do something now.

Here’s my hunch: Could it be that we have simply forgotten what made us such a great nation in the first place? So many people are waiting around for our leaders to come up with a grand plan to save our nation. But is that really how America got started? What if things actually work the other way around? What if real change doesn’t start at the top but at the bottom? What if the best place to begin transforming our country is not the Oval Office but the dinner table?

For the past year and a half, I’ve been making a film called “Monumental,” and I am thrilled to announce that it’s coming to theaters on March 27. We are creating a live, one-night national event in 500 theaters where audiences can experience a monumental moment together. Then we will release the film in theaters in select cities, while providing helpful new resources to families, churches, and schools who want to go further with what they’ve experienced in the film. 

In the film I retrace the footsteps of our Founders from England to America in the hope of discovering our true “national treasure.” I wanted to listen to them, to learn from them. Our forefathers knew we were a forgetful people, that someday we would lose our way as a nation. So they left us “maps” that would guide us back to the source of America’s success. What I discovered is amazing! This is one of the most important journeys of my life. America is worth fighting for, and so are our families. We can still be a “city upon a hill,” but we need to work together. With God’s help, we can turn this thing around. It’s been said, “Footprints in history are not made sitting down,” and I couldn’t agree more. I hope that our children will mark this moment as the turning point when we stood up, came together, and reclaimed the true national treasure of America.

Thus, it’s with pleasure that Big Hollywood presents this exclusive clip from “Courageous,” the latest film by director Alex Kendrick, available now on DVD and Blu-ray. Have a look at some of the bloopers, flubs, and just plain fun had on set during the film’s lighter moments:

“Courageous” is available at Amazon.com.

This week’s predictions and revenue results go as follows:

1. Underworld: Awakening ($28 Million) – The market is set up perfectly for action/adventure fare, and this film’s fan base is already dialed in. It will easily set a new franchise-best opening. A similar comparison is the “Resident Evil” franchise: films that feature female action leads against horror elements and open during months not seen as blockbuster fare (“Resident Evil” in September and “Underworld” in January). Despite this, the films generally open very well, and this “Underworld” will open even higher than “Resident Evil: Afterlife’s” $26 million opening in 2010.

2. Red Tails ($19 Million) – No question the film will resonate well portraying an important chapter in military history. There also remains a significant audience who will watch the film as a continuation of Martin Luther King Holiday celebrations. These factors will help it land a much higher than expected finish.

3. Contraband ($13 Million) – Why just have one top finisher from Kate Beckinsale when you can have two? We used to call actor Sylvester Stallone “Mr. October” because of the success his films enjoyed during that month. Does “Ms. January” have a ring for Ms. Beckinsale?

4. Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close ($11.7 Million) – This book adaptation has a solid “feel good” quality to it, but Tom Hanks isn’t the box office draw he used to be. Saddled with a mid-January opening against a well-known franchise won’t help things either. Still, we predict the film will post a healthy mid-range opening.

5. Beauty And The Beast 3D ($10 Million) – The “tale as old as time” will continue to ring well with family audiences. Of note, “Finding Nemo 3D” is now scheduled for a September 14th release later this year.

In other calls: Look for “Haywire” to open around $7 million.

That’s Sensei’s take this week. Feel free to have at him…

All calls this weekend are 4 day (Fri-Mon) to incorporate the holiday weekend:

1. Contraband ($24 million) – Up to a few weeks ago, this weekend appeared an easy win for “Beauty And The Beast 3D.” This is in light of the success “Lion King 3D” had last year. Things have now changed. With the success of “Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol” leading the way, action audiences are more likely to see “Contraband.” It also helps to have actor Mark Wahlberg star, which may attract audiences nostalgic for “The Italian Job” and hence lead to this surprise finish.

2. Beauty And The Beast ($20 million) – Sensei did very well predicting “Lion King 3D”’s run at the top, and the addition of the new short film “Tangled Ever After” will help this film be the prime draw for families throughout the weekend. “Contraband” will open very strong early though, making it tough to catch. “Beast” will close the gap, but we predict “Contraband” holds for the win.

3. Joyful Noise ($15.7 million) – Dolly Parton’s latest project is fun and lively, and the film’s musical pedigree will help its box office tremendously. Queen Latifah is a very good box office draw, and as long as this film stays positive (no political or controversial sucker punches), it will do very well this weekend.

4. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol ($14 million) – The film deserves high praise for helping set up this box office weekend. By exciting action/adventure audiences (as opposed to disappointing them), they are now returning in greater numbers.  Again, this film will pull solid numbers and even jump back over “The Devil Inside,” which knocked it from the top spot last weekend.

5. The Devil Inside ($12 million) – This horror flick posted a very high opening last weekend, but it now returns to box office reality. The film will post a significant drop much like “The Last Exorcism” did in its second week. Still, considering how inexpensive the film was to produce ($1 million), can’t complain about that profit margin.

In other calls, look for “The Iron Lady” to pull in around $4 million off its expansion.

Sensei predicts a “Contraband” win, but how do you see it?

“Where to find a little workout inspiration?,” I wondered. “Ah, yes, Rocky IV.”  Watching it for the 5,849,948th time, I am compelled to share with you my thoughts on… the greatest film ever made.  Yes, that is not mere opinion but fact.  Rate it on a sheer entertainment, emotions-evoking, never-goes-stale standard and surely you’ll agree.

To be fair, “Rocky IV” is not an overly political film, nor was it intended to be.  But it nonetheless encapsulates several key conservative points, so much so that it was, and still is, slammed by leftist critics as right-wing propaganda.  Behold, the top 10 conservative lessons of “Rocky IV”:

1) Communism… (let me be succinct and find the right word here…) sucks.

a) It allows no hint of individualism. Not only is Drago forbidden from speaking and behaves as a robot but, in a moment of raw honesty during the final fight, fed up with the commands of his superiors, he finally breaks free emotionally, looks up at the Politburo in attendance, and shouts: “I fight for me! For ME!!!”  (which, based on my repeated viewings, I can tell you sounds like “Ya-te-beeah!” in Russian, without evening cueing the DVD)

b) Who wants to live in that system? Does any one of us envy Drago? Uh, no.  Need we even ruminate what happened to him after he lost and publicly humiliated Mother Russia? Shipped off to a Siberian labor camp.

c) It keeps people in order through violence. During a (rare) sober moment, Pauly says it best when addressing the Soviet rep at the press conference: “Hey, WE don’t keep our people behind a wall with machine guns!” (I’d love to ask Stallone how he ever got a Hollywood studio to green-light that line.)

d) They cheat (doped-up Drago) and manipulate public opinion (really? They honestly felt ‘unsafe’ in the U.S. and the fight had to be in Moscow? On Christmas Day, no less?).

e) Loyalty to the State takes precedence over all else. Although not explicitly stated, you know cold-as-ice, calmly-smoking-a cigarette-while-her-husband-boxes Brigitte Nielsen’s character would spy on and sell out Drago in a heartbeat.

f) There is no, and I mean NO, freedom. Rocky is assigned steely-eyed “official chaperones” (a.k.a., spies) during his stay.

To be sure, Rocky understands the majority of the Soviet people themselves are victims. He doesn’t put down the individuals in the Moscow audience and instead appeals to the idea that they “can change.”

2) There are wealthy people who are also (gasp!) perfectly good people. Rocky’s a filthy rich guy – yes, he’s got the smokin’ hot black Lamborghini, the gaudy mansion, and can buy his wife fancy, albeit tacky, jewelry (a gold snake bracelet? That’s what “the guy at the store” recommended, Roc?). But he earned it. And, as we saw in “Rocky III”, he’s generous and does his part for charity, too (including having his as* whooped by the scary-Viking-chief-looking Hulk Hogan). Yet Rocky’s in the 1 percent the Occupy movement would have us resent – I ask you, who could hate on a guy like Rocky?

3) Traditional family values are beautiful.  As annoying a buzz-kill as Adrian can be sometimes, Rocky has stood by her and seems just as in love with his wife as he was the day of their wedding. Sure, he could’ve dumped her and married a younger, hotter, glass-heels-wearing stripper, but Rocky’s no fool – he’s a traditional guy who stays true, knowing he’s got a good woman at his side. The series also emphasizes the emotional support and value a spouse can provide in one’s life – who else could’ve motivated him the way Adrian did in “Rocky II”? (“There’s something I want you do for me… Win. Win!”) Indeed, while we’re on the subject – notice there are no gratuitous, unnecessary sex scenes in the “Rocky” franchise.  Hollywood, take note: it is possible to have a wildly entertaining, appealing film without the need to show our leads gettin’ it on.

4) Patriotism.  Three words:  APOLLO ’effing CREED.  One of cinematic history’s greatest characters, period.  Apollo’s unbridled enthusiasm for his country never gets old, no matter how many times I watch this masterpiece, and it’s particularly touching that the fiercely patriotic, no-apologies-for-American-exceptionalism-found-here / “if you’re looking for someone to put this country down, look elsewhere” character … is a black male.  What’s not to love?  He-llo, the man is wearing an Abe-Lincoln-style red-white-and-blue hat and matching boxing trunks. Liberals recoil in horror.  And James Brown’s “Living in America”? Goosebumps. Best of all, we get to watch the Godfather of Soul himself (who, incidentally, was an outspoken conservative!) perform it, with American flags waving all around. (As if a patriotic black male weren’t offensive enough, liberals’ heads must explode in this scene – in fact, I reckon one would be hard-pressed to find a true leftist who’s able to sit through the whole film, sans spontaneous combustion “Spinal Tap”-drummer style).

5) Color-blind race relations are the way to go.  No affirmative action style ‘token’ minority characters but rather an authentic lead in Apollo – a strong role model who simply happens to be African-American. A true patriot who shuns Leftist mentality, Apollo has no counter-productive resentment towards whites – in fact, in “Rocky III” he trains Rocky against a fellow black boxer (perfectly played by Mr. T).  We grow so fond of Apollo that, when (***spoiler alert to any and all FOOLS out there who haven’t already seen this gem***) he dies, I dare you not to weep.  If only Rocky had thrown “the damn towel”…  In a flashback to “Rocky III”’s beach-training sequence, we are treated to the beautiful visual of Rocky and Apollo, embracing in exaltation on the sand:  a black man and a white man — neither of whom sees color, just his buddy.  (Indeed, a comment on a YouTube clip of this scene rightly notes: “When white people and black people work together, they can accomplish anything.”  Hear, hear.)

6) There is no room for moral relativism.  Apollo, stressing to Rocky the importance of his fight against Soviet Drago: “This is not just an exhibition fight that doesn’t mean anything. This is us against THEM!”  Bam — clear lines of good and evil.  (Could I love Apollo any more?  I think not.)

7) Faith in God is paramount.  Rocky kneels in prayer twice before his fight (in an earlier franchise installment, he even stops by church for his priest’s blessing and, upon beating Apollo in “Rocky II”, he thanks God “most of all” – a Tebow forerunner, if you will).  Nowadays, this would naturally be edited out of the film so as to not offend anyone.  Rocky, Apollo, and Duke always have their crosses hanging from their neck, throughout the films. And there’s an ode to Judaism in Rocky’s lovable trainer, Mickey Goldmill, whose faith is highlighted via Mickey’s synagogue burial and the Star of David on his mausoleum plaque.  The message?  Judeo-Christian beliefs are as American as apple pie.

8 ) Manliness personified.  No liberal, hand-holding wimpy ideals here. Rocky knows there’s a job that has to be done and sets out to do it.  “I just gotta doooo what I gotta dooooo,” he matter-of-factly tells Adrian. It’s all about duty and honor. Rocky is exactly like our soldiers – just in the boxing world instead of the military.  100 percent alpha and not a hint of beta.

9) Think for yourself rather than going with the tides.  Adrian to Rocky: “Why can’t you change your thinking?! Everybody else does!”  But does Rocky? Nope. The opposite of robotic Drago, he is offended by the mere suggestion and sticks to his guns (cue the roar of the Lamborghini’s engine and the chills-inducing, best-motivational-song-ever:  Robert Tepper’s “There’s No Easy Way Out”). You think Rocky would’ve been caught up in the 2008 wave of Obama-mania? Wrong.

10) If you apply yourself and work hard, success is attainable:  i.e., the very essence of capitalism.  Rocky shows us that, even with the odds stacked against you, a person can succeed. Duke’s pep-talk to Rocky when they arrive in Russia: “I know you’re gonna have to do almost everything alone. . . . Now you’re gonna have to go through hell, worse than any nightmare that you ever dreamed. But in the end, I know you’ll be the one standing.” (a lesson the ‘gimme, gimme’ entitlement-crowd laying about at an Occupy rally would do well to learn… )

So there you have it – “Rocky IV”, the greatest unintentionally-conservative film ever made and, not coincidentally, a cultural masterpiece.

*Sidebar lessons:  A) The Soviet anthem is a stunning musical composition and, were it not a Communist sing-song… hey, I’d like it!  B) Drago demonstrates it’s possible to take a needle in the arm without flinching or even blinking. Channel him during your next flu shot – it works.

(Drago, taking the needle at the 1:57 mark, in the greatest film-montage ever. If you ever need to show someone ‘juxtaposition’ done right, here it is!)

What do you all think?  Is “Rocky IV” indeed a masterpiece? Any conservative points I missed? And, should I follow through on my urge to show up at an Occupy rally decked out as Apollo and blastin’ “Living in America” from a boombox? I say ‘yes.’

—–

In these trying times, this story of one man’s unrelenting efforts to succeed can serve as an inspiration to many. I know “His Way” inspired me. After learning how Jerry cold-called Elvis Presley’s Manager, Colonel Tom Parker, every day for an entire year for the right to take Elvis on tour (for the first time in nearly a decade), I decided to roll the dice and take my own film out on the road to build an audience. Concluding our interview with Douglas McGrath, director of the documentary “His Way,” we talked about more of the film, including the amazing segments on Weintraub’s experiences with Elvis Presley and Colonel Tom Parker and Frank Sinatra.

KW: How did you go about choosing which stories or chapters to cover or not cover from the book?

DM: Well, I didn’t do it that way. I didn’t think of them in terms of chapters. I just thought of them in terms of stories. But, I knew we’d have ninety minutes, an hour and forty-five maybe at most and I just thought, there’s no way to go through everything. I just thought “I’m going to ask about all the stuff I liked the best and the things that were really the big tent poles of his life.” So, I thought I’d better go with the things that really tell us, without repeating it, what his magic was. And the Elvis story is emblematic of his whole career, you know, that tells you how he started with nothing, he persisted. He won the contract, so to speak, the right to take him. He almost blew it. When you think of 20th Century entertainment, particularly musical entertainment and particularly male musical entertainment — you know, you have Elvis and you have Sinatra. Those guys are the big tent poles in that story.

KW: Jerry’s relationship with Frank Sinatra seemed much more direct than it did with Elvis. His relationship really was with the Colonel (Elvis’s Manager). Did you have to approach the Elvis segment any differently than you did from the Sinatra segment or in trying to work a connection between the two as a bridge?

DM: Oh no, that is a very good question. I don’t remember consciously doing that. You know, we came to the Elvis story first, because in my memory of his life, I worked through it in order so he could kind of work it in order. Sometimes if you’re telling a story about your childhood or some early part of your life, certain feelings come along with these stories that can then add to the overall feeling of what you are talking about. But [with] the Elvis stuff, he was a different guy. Meaning when he came into Elvis’s life, he was “aspiring” at that point. He had some clients, he was successful, meaning he could pay his bills and he was married and had a nice life. But, he was not by any means, what he became and he knew that this was his way out. But when we came to Sinatra… which I knew is the next big seismic event in his professional life… he [Jerry] was then a different person.

He had chased Elvis, but Sinatra came to him. Now nobody was confused about anything in that situation. Sinatra was still tough, extremely powerful and I’m sure a fairly terrifying person to work for, because he had a temper and knew what he wanted and had been a huge star and a big success for, by that point, 30 years or something . And while he wanted Jerry’s help, he was hardly a helpless and frail creative person looking for tough guidance from Jerry. And the Madison Square Garden Concert (“The Main Event,” 1974), Jerry really had to talk him into it. Really had to talk him into it. I think the reason Jerry flew to Las Vegas so quickly when Frank called and sounded so upset [and depressed] was I think he (Jerry) thought, “Oh. I could lose him.” A smart manager will hear something like any kind of qualm in a client’s voice. A smart manager gets on it. A lot of them don’t. Which is why people change managers. But, Jerry knew that was “his guy” at that point.

KW: Does that come from growing up as he did [in the Bronx and Brooklyn] and being able to shake a guy’s hand and knowing if he is a good guy or a bad guy?

DM: I think you’re right. I think you’re right. He does have a very good sense of people and I remember Matt Damon saying this to me and I felt it as well… when he first meets you and shakes your hand, you can feel it for one second, he looks at you very intensely and you think, “I think he just X-rayed me.”

KW: Do you have a favorite Jerry Weintraub story yourself?

DM: Every time I try to pick one, I think of another one. There are so many that are so good. But that Elvis story is just amazing. The persistence to call the Colonel for a year, the hilarious business when the seats aren’t sold (at a Miami FL matinee) and he has to get the convicts to come take the chairs out… but I also love when the Colonel takes him into that electrician’s booth and with the suitcases of money. When he tells the story about the Colonel pouring the money on the table and whacking it with his cane. That’s yours, that’s mine… are we good? It just tells you that that it is a whole different part of show business that doesn’t exist anymore. It’s still got a foot in the “Carnie” world. That’s probably my favorite.

KW: Do you think there are more “Jerry”s out there or there’s still room for them?

DM: There must be because there’s no reason there shouldn’t be but I will say the business used to be comprised of more people like Jerry and now it isn’t. You know, that kind of renegade, non-corporate, non-business school, non-film school, come to it out of passion, bootstraps, hard work, gift-of gab, full force personality. I don’t run across many people like that. Maybe to be fair, maybe there were never a lot of people like that. I don’t know. But, there sure aren’t a lot of people like that now. There certainly a lot of people who approach it in a more systematic way with their foreign sales estimates and all their numbers that they run.

KW: The spreadsheets.

DM: Yeah, the spreadsheets and all the things that don’t connect to the thing that makes him so winning. Which is to say, a genuine passion for movies or music or the artists that he’s working with. That you don’t feel so much anymore. And I think we’re the worse off for it too. Look what he did with that passion.

KW: And what are the upcoming projects, if you can talk about anything?

DM: I am making a TV pilot with Nathan Lane. He was in my film “Nicholas Nickleby.” We’re casting now and we’re going to shoot in December (2011). It’s a funny and kind of touching half-hour single-camera comedy.

This weekend’s predictions and revenue results go as follows:

1. The Devil Inside ($18 Million) – From the film’s marketing, it’s clear the producers are hoping for “Paranormal Activity”-like success. Sensei disagrees and feels the film is more like “The Last Exorcism” and “The Rite.” Because of this, look for a mid-range opening that just fights off the “Mission.”

2. Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol ($16 Million) – Despite being knocked off the top spot, Brad Bird’s actioner still controls enough of an audience to post this healthy drop. Whether Tom Cruise is a bankable star again is another story.

3. Sherlock Holmes: A Game Of Shadows ($10.7 Million) – Guy Ritchie’s sequel will not equal the domestic gross of the first “Sherlock Holmes” ($209 million). Still, grossing more than $250 million worldwide doesn’t make it a complete disaster either.

4. Alvin And The Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked ($9.8 Million) – The film will break the $100 million mark, which usually means a hit. Unfortunately, the previous films in the series each grossed more than $200 million, making this the odd one out.

5. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo ($8.6 Million) – This adaptation of the Euro hit was expensive to produce. The box office results so far have been very lackluster. Unless some positive buzz kicks up, look for this film to continue fading.

That’s how Sensei sees it. Do you agree or foresee “Mission” winning again?