Star-turned-producer Hugh Jackman has scored his second-biggest opening ever and, easily, his biggest as a solo star. Wolverine has mauled the competition with a massive $34.75M opening day (including $5M or so in Thursday midnight sales). That could translate to a 3-day of $86.8M, getting Hollywood’s most lucrative season off to a spectacular start.

The stars of WOLVERINE (from the left): Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool, Taylor Kitsch as Gambit, Hugh Jackman as Wolverine, Liev Schrieber as Sabretooth and Lynn Collins as Kayla Silverfox

The X-Men spin-off, which has been made for substantially less than the $210M budget ponied up for to produce 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand, becomes the all-time fourth-best first-weekend-of-May opening, trailing only Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M), the original 2002 Spider-Man ($114.8M) and last May’s Iron Man ($98.6M). Wolverine has also posted one of the top seven opening days ever for a comic book adaptation.

ALL-TIME BEST OPENINGS DAYS FOR COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS
1. The Dark Knight – $67.1M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $59.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand – $45.1M
4. Spider-Man 2 – $40.4M
5. Spider-Man – $39.4M
6. Iron Man – $35.2M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $34.75M (estimated)
8. X2: X-Men United – $31.2M
9. 300 – $28.1M
10. Watchmen – $24.5M

And, as comic book movies go, Jackman’s solo effort has cut and sliced through the pack to become the all-time seventh-best 3-day start.

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE will not match the opening weekend of last year's summer starter IRON MAN

ALL-TIME BEST OPENING WEEKENDS FOR A COMIC BOOK ADAPTATION
1. The Dark Knight – $158.4M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $151.1M
3. Spider-Man – $114.8M
4. X-Men: The Last Stand – $102.7M
5. Iron Man – $98.6M
6. Spider-Man 2 – $88.1M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $86.8M (projected)
8. X2: X-Men United – $85.5M
9. 300 – $70.8M
10. Hulk – $62.1M

How does Jackman hold his silverware during dinner?

Jackman himself is getting lots of positive feedback on his personal Twitter page, but there is some real negative feedback in the Twitterverse. Here are some actually Tweets from movie fans that have been posted in the last couple of hours.

if its wolverine dont waste your time

Wolverine sucks!

Wolverine: not too bad. Better than the horrible second X-Men movie. Coolest thing was preview for District-9.

I went and paid for 2 movie tix to see that damn Wolverine movie. I just wasted my money.

Wolverine was ok – too much smooshed into one movie and too many things attempted to be neatly wrapped up and squared away.

Saw Wolverine. It was weak.

What does Hugh Jackman being a hottie have 2 do w/ how crappy the movie is?

Oh my God Wolverine was just as bad as everyone was saying.

out to see Wolverine! Ill let you guys know how bad it is.

“don’t waste your money” unless you’re a huge fan. Like 2nd X-files bad.

So, it appears that fans are as tepid about this movie as film critics. X-Men Origins: Wolverine will likely be very front-loaded both for the weekend and the long haul. I’m guessing that the weekend could play out like this. Wolverine did $5M Thursday at midnight and has added another $29.75M Friday (for a $34.75M opening day). Then Saturday, the movie may drop 9% to $31.6M or so, followed by a Sunday dip of 36% to just over $20M.

Jackman is not just another action star; Here he is in his Tony-winning performance in Broadway's BOY FROM OZ

After speaking with a number of competing studios, the consensus is that Wolverine will have a multiple of less than two. (The multiple is the number by which you multiply the opening weekend to arrive at the ultimate domestic gross.) With a multiple in the 1.8-1.9 range, the summer’s first movie spectacle will finish at $156-$165M. That’s a good, but not great number. Meanwhile, Star Trek (Paramount) has a chance to be this year’s Iron Man, an early May release that plays deep into the summer at a high multiple in the 3.2-3.3 range.

Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner are creating some sparks in GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST

The other wide release in the marketplace this weekend is the poorly-reviewed Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros). With Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner as the romantic leads and an assist from Oscar winner Michael Douglas, Ghosts has performed decently, especially with Females 25 Plus. The Mark Waters-directed rom-com coaxed an estimated $6M in opening day sales and will likely reach about $16.5M for the weekend. That’s would be 12% stronger than last year’s first-weekend-of-May chick-flick counter programming, Made of Honor, which finished second to Iron Man with $14.7M.

Ali Larter (center) and Beyonce (right) come to blows over THE WIRE's Idris Elba in OBSESSED

Last weekend’s box office champ Obsessed (Sony) – the one where Beyonce “tromps a tramp” (played by Ali Larter from Heroes) – took a nosedive with just $4.2M or so on Friday. It seems headed for an estimated 3-day of $12.39M, down 57% from its opening, but the genre pic with a budget of only $20M will still have $47M in the bank by Monday. That’s a very profitable little movie.

Tween are pushing Zac Efron's 17 AGAIN past the $50M mark

The Warner Bros comedy 17 Again, starring tween dream Zac Efron, continues to perform well with about $2.22M to start the weekend and a possible $6.62M for the frame. Zac’s high-concept comedy will have topped $48.7M domestic in its first 17 days of release.

The new nature doc EARTH is really just the Cliff Notes for the extraordinary BBC miniseries PLANET EARTH

Disney’s Earth, a 90-minute version of the BBC’s 11-hour 2006 miniseries Planet Earth, will round out the top five for the first official weekend of summer. The nature doc grabbed $1.45M on its second Friday and is targeting $5.81M and a new 12-day cume of $23.47M by Monday.

The other wide release is the 3-D pic Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions). It is on just over 1,100 screens, but has managed only about $300,000 on opening day. I did see a commercial for Terra during American Idol this week, so there was some money spent, but it couldn’t have been much. Despite respectable reviews, this cg animated flick is destined for no more than $1M. That’s a full-on disaster.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $34.75M, $8,478 PTA, $34.75M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $6M, $1,890 PTA, $6M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $4.2M, $1,671 PTA, $39M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $2.22M, $682 PTA, $44.36M cume
5. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.7M, $836 PTA, $14.2M cume
6. Earth (Disney) – $1.45M, $804 PTA, $19.11M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.41M, $537 PTA, $178M cume
8. Fighting (Rogue) – $1.4M, $608 PTA, $14.73M cume
9. State of Play (Universal) – $1.28M, $527 PTA, $28.51M cume
10. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $1.1M, $390 PTA, $67.88M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – $300,000, $258 PTA, $300,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $86.8M, $21,194 PTA, $86.8M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $16.5M, $5,197 PTA, $16.5M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $12.39M, $4,928 PTA, $47.19M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $6.62M, $2,034 PTA, $48.76M cume
5. Earth (Disney) – $5.81M, $3,221 PTA, $23.47M cume
6. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.7M, $2,804 PTA, $18.2M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.65M, $2,152 PTA, $182.25M cume
8. State of Play (Universal) – $4.31M, $1,765 PTA, $31.54M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $3.96M, $1,405 PTA, $70.74M cume
10. Fighting (Rogue) – $3.76M, $1,630 PTA, $17.1M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – $1M, $878 PTA, $1M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Beyonce does battle with the sexy Ali Larter (HEROES) in OBSESSED

OPENINGS FOR BEYONCE MOVIES
1. Austin Powers: Goldmember – $70.3M opening
2. Obsessed – $27.5M opening (projected)
3. Pink Panther (2006) – $20.2M opening
4. Dreamgirls – $14.1M wide break (after a platform start)
5. The Fighting Temptations – $11.7M opening
6. Cadillac Records – $3.4M opening

Now a million-selling solo artist with ubiquitous hits like Irreplaceable and Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It), she is beginning to cash in at the box office. She parlayed supporting roles in Mike Myers Austin Powers: Goldmember and Steve Martin’s Pink Panther into the showy Deena Jones role in the film adaptation of Dreamgirls, which topped $100M domestic (although the most of the awards hardware was ultimately taken home by Jennifer Hudson, winning Best Supporting Actress at both the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards). Beyonce received generally good notices for her turn as Etta James in Cadillac Records in December, although the movie was a box office dud with just $8.2M domestic. Now she has managed a surprise hit on her own with Obsessed.

By all accounts the movie is not very good. Sony didn’t screen it for critics, and the early reviews trickling in decidedly negative (25% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). Perhaps the excellent Pete Hammond from Hollywood.com sums it up best saying, “It’s strictly a generic thriller, perhaps the 105th blatant rip-off of Fatal Attraction, but not without its own guilty pleasures.” My hunch is that there is some trashy fun here with a “girl-on-girl smackdown” (Geoff Berkshire’s words from his review on Metromix.com), and the other girl is the stunning Ali Larter from NBC’s Heroes. Still when all is said and done, Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine (Fox) and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) starring Matthew McConaughey, both due next Friday, are certain to make Obsessed a one-week wonder, and it may get a speeding ticket on its way to home video.

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE kicks off the summer next Friday

Even if Beyonce’s “movie legs” aren’t as long as her real (and shapely) legs, Obsessed has set a new opening record for the last weekend of April, traditionally a studio dumping ground for schlock and tough-to-sell movies.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS ON LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL
1. Obsessed (2009) – $27.5M (projected)
2. Mean Girls (2004) – $24.4M
3. Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Universe (2005) – $21.1M
4. Baby Mama (2008) – $17.4M
5. RV (2006) – $16.4M
6. Identity (2003) – $16.2M
7. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay (2008) – $14.9M
8. XXX: State of the Union (2005) – $12.7M
9. Driven (2001) – $12.1M
10. United 93 (2006) – $11.5M

Former A&F model Channing Tatum is flexing his box office muscle this weekend in FIGHTING

Aside from the monstrous upside surprise for Obsessed, the strong performance of Fighting (Rogue) ranks as the biggest box office upset of the weekend. This Channing Tatum vehicle from his A Guide To Recognizing Your Saints director Dito Montiel didn’t seem to have much traction in pre-release audience tracking, but the PG-13 street fighting yarn has actually delivered the second-best Friday gross with about $4.46M. It will be pretty front-loaded, but should still reach a better-than-expected $12M by Monday, enough for second-place.

Zac Efron is proving to be a little less durable among the teen and pre-teen set than I would have thought. 17 Again (Warner Bros), also starring Matthew Perry and Mrs. Judd Apatow (Leslie Mann) has delivered a second Friday in the $3.85M range. The weekend could hit $10.83M or so, second for the 3-day, for a new 10-day cume of $39.13M, but that represents a deeper-than-expected 54% drop.

Next comes the long-delayed Robert Downey Jr./Jamie Foxx project The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount). Originally slated for December with hopes of a Best Actor nomination for Downey, Jr., the Joe Wright-directed tearjerker was first moved to March before settling into this unfriendly last weekend of April slot. Reviews are respectable (61% Fresh on RT) and Downey, Jr. and Foxx both have real drawing power. At just over 2,000 playdates, the movie has managed a tuneful $3.43M (#4 for the day) to start the frame, and opening weekend could reach $10.29M, good for fourth place. The 25 Plus appeal, especially with women, gives this one a chance to do respectable business over the next couple of weekends as counter-programming to the first few summer blockbusters.

A Great White Shark lunging out of the ocean to snatch a seal in Disney's EARTH

Rounding out the top five, and a bit of a disappointment, is Earth (Disney). The studio’s calculated use of Earth Day to release its Cliffs Notes version of the BBC miniseries Planet Earth has, however, paid some dividends. The 11-hour miniseries has been boiled down to the cutest and scariest animals along with the most fascinating images and picturesque landscapes in a tight 90-minute package, and the re-purposed result generated just over $4M for Wednesday’s Earth Day celebration, adding another $1.6M or so on Thursday. Now the nature doc, which is running at 83% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, has slumped to an estimated $2.9M in Friday sales. It will play big with family audiences on Saturday and Sunday (the kids will be unable to resist baby polar bears sliding down a snowy arctic slope), but I am penciling in Earth for a 3-day of only $10M. That still gives it the biggest 3-day opening ever for a nature doc, although this is also the widest opening ever for a movie of this type.

ALL-TIME TOP 3-DAY OPENINGS FOR NATURE DOCS
- total domestic cumes included -
1. Earth – $9.39M (projected)
2. March of the Penguins – $7.1M opening – $77.4M cume
3. Two Brothers – $6.1M opening – $19.1M cume
4. Winged Migration – $470,000 biggest weekend – $10.7M cume
5. Arctic Tale -  $207,000 opening – $830,000 cume

2004’s Two Brothers, a story of tiger cubs from director Jean-Jacques Annaud, was a wide release like Earth, but the other 3 films listed above were platformed. Disney’s abridged version of Planet Earth has no chance of reaching the staggering success of 2005’s March of the Penguins, but Earth could get to the $30M range even with summer’s biggest guns blazing starting next Friday.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $11M, $4,375 PTA, $11M cume
2. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $4.46M, $1,932 PTA, $4.46M cume
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $3.85M, $1,183 PTA, $32.15M cume
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.2M, $1,581 PTA, $3.2M cume
5. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $2.9M, $1,608 PTA, $8.54M cume
6. State of Play (Universal) – $2.08M, $741 PTA, $20.31M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.05M, $579 PTA, $168.34M cume
8. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $1.93M, $541 PTA, $141.09M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $1.77M, $548 PTA, $60.98M cume
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $850,000, $382 PTA, $9.96M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $27.5M, $10,939 PTA, $27.5M cume
2. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $12M, $5,197 PTA, $12M cume
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $10.83M, $3,327 PTA, $39.13M
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $10.29M, $5,084 PTA, $10.29M cume
5. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $10M, $5,543 PTA, $15.64M cume
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.5M, $2,531 PTA, $174.79M cume
7. State of Play (Universal) – $7.1M, $2,529 PTA, $25.33M cume
8. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $6.65M, $2,058 PTA, $65.86M cume
9. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $5.79M, $1,625 PTA, $144.95M cume
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $2.8M, $1,259 PTA, $11.91M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

The 4 new wide releases and 1 major specialty release set to debut this weekend will face an onslaught of mega-hits over the next month. How can Obsessed (Sony), Earth (Disney), The Soloist, (Dreamworks/Paramount), Fighting (Rogue) and The Informers (Senator) possibly find an audience with X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) arriving next weekend followed by, in successive weeks, Star Trek (Paramount), Angels & Demons (Sony), the combo of Night at the Museum 2 (Fox) and Terminator: Salvation (Fox) and Disney/Pixar’s Up?

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE starring Hugh Jackman will be unleashed next weekend

End of April starters have tended to be genre pics like 2003’s Identity and The Invisible (2007), mid-budget messes that have fallen short of expectations like the ridiculous Next (2007) starring Nicolas Cage and XXX: State of the Union in ’05, and tough-to-sell pictures like the excellent United 93 (2006) from director Paul Greengrass and the good-hearted 2006 movie Akeelah & the Bee. Tina Fey is the unofficial queen of the last weekend of April, writing and starring in Mean Girls and mugging her way through Baby Mama with Amy Poehler last year.

30 ROCK's Tina Fey has starred in 2 of the 3 biggest last weekend of April openers ever

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS ON LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL
1. Mean Girls (2004) – $24.4M
2. Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Universe (2005) – $21.1M
3. Baby Mama (2008) – $17.4M
4. RV (2006) – $16.4M
5. Identity (2003) – $16.2M
6. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay (2008) – $14.9M
7. XXX: State of the Union (2005) – $12.7M
8. Driven (2001) – $12.1M
9. United 93 (2006) – $11.5M
10. Stick It (2006) – $10.8M

The likely weekend winner will be either Obsessed or Disney’s nature doc Earth, which opened Wednesday to about $4M, but I am giving the nod to recording superstar Beyonce despite the fact that Sony has kept its exploitative-looking thriller completely under wraps. Under its Screen Gems banner, Sony knows how to squeeze one good weekend out of movie like this regardless of how bad it is. Last year, Screen Gems scored excellent 3-day starts for sub-par movies like Prom Night ($20.8M), First Sunday ($17.7M), Lakeview Terrace ($15M), Quarantine ($14.2M) and Untraceable ($11.3M). Industry tracking suggests that Beyonce could drive the certain-to-be-forgettable Obsessed to a decent $15M opening weekend, and it will likely play very well at inner city theatre properties.

That would push Earth to #2 for the frame. The Earth Day opening was successful, and critics love the film (83% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). Family audiences love cute baby animals so Disney has excerpted the amazing BBC miniseries Planet Earth to fashion their own March of the Penguins-style narrative nature doc. It’s hard to imagine anything cuter than baby polar bears sliding down a snow bank, and it’s hard to come up with anything scarier than a Great White Shark lunging out of the water after its prey. I have seen the full length miniseries, but not Disney’s movie. Still it’s hard to imagine this not being unbelievably compelling stuff, even in its 90 minute theatrical version (although I still recommend tracking down the full BBC series instead). I am forecasting a possible $13.2M for 3-days, which would mean a 5-day start of just over $19M.

Last weekend’s champ, 17 Again (Warner Bros) starring ‘tween heartthrob Zac Efron, should hold up fairly well. The word-of-mouth is very positive, and that could mean a drop of only 46% or so to about $12.7M and a new cume of just over $40M by Monday.

Oscar nominee Robert Downey, Jr. (TROPIC THUNDER) and Academy Award winner Jamie Foxx (RAY) star in THE SOLOIST

The Joe Wright-directed The Soloist has been juggled around the release schedule with abandon, but it has been very well marketed with a heavy TV campaign, especially during shows geared for the 25+ crowd. The reviews are a mixed bag (54% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but there will be some business in this title. Some of my sources are saying $12M-$14M, but I am calling for a possible $11.6M.

The well-reviewed Russell Crowe journalism thriller State of Play (Universal) will almost certainly hang onto a spot in the top 5. The dip will be gentle (maybe 35%-40%), and this very good adult film could generate another $9M in ticket sales.

FINAL PREDICTION FOR APRIL 24-26
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $15M
2. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $13.2M
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $12.7M
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $11.6M
5. State of Play (Universal) – $9M
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $7.9M
7. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $7.4M
8. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $7M
9. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $5.8M
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $2.8M
11. Knowing (Summit) – $2M
12. NEW – The Informers (Senator) – $1.7M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

With most of Hollywood (including myself) expecting an opening in the mid-$20M’s for Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney), Miley has surprised “grown-ups” with her box office clout once again. The picture opened with a heavily front-loaded $17.39M on Good Friday then dropped 40% on Saturday to an estimated $10.34M, and it will reach an estimated $34M by the end of Easter weekend, making it the all-time #2 opening for the bunny holiday weekend. My Friday night early 3-day projection was for $33.6M, but then I raised my number to $39M on Saturday. As it turns out, I should have stuck with my first pass. These young skewing movies are tricky to project, and the Easter Weekend, where Saturday traditionally drops from Friday, makes it even more complicated.

Likely still the all-time Easter Weekend opening champ

ALL-TIME TOP 5 EASTER WEEKEND OPENINGS
1. Scary Movie 4 - $40.2M
2. Hannah Montana The Movie – $34M (projected)
3. Panic Room – $30M
4. The Matrix – $27.7M
5. Guess Who – $20.7M

That is also stronger than Miley Cyrus’ 3-D concert movie last year. 2008’s Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour, which was promoted as a one-week-only motion picture event and benefited from a 3-D upcharge, delivered a stunning $31.1M last February. This 16-year-old has outdone herself.

For the business overall, it appears to be a spectacular frame as Hannah and some strong holdovers will likely have scored the biggest Easter Weekend in modern box office history, surpassing 2002’s holiday 3-day. In fact, this 3-day could beat the previous record by as much as 16%.

Kristin Stewart & Jody Foster were #1 in PANIC ROOM leading Hollywood's previous best Easter Weekend

ALL-TIME BIGGEST GROSSING EASTER WEEKENDS
- totals are for the top 10 films for the holiday 3-day -
1. 4/10/09 – $126.4M [#1 - Hannah Montana The Movie - $34M] (projected)
2. 3/29/02 – $108.8M [#1 – Panic Room - $30M]
3. 4/14/06 – $107.08M [#1 – Scary Movie 4 - $40.2M]
4. 4/06/07 – $104.5M [#1 - Blades of Glory - $22.5M]
5. 3/21/08 – $94.65M [#1 - Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears A Who! - $24.6M]
6. 4/07/04 – $87.9M [#1 – Passion of the Christ - $15.2M]
7. 3/25/05 – $86.8M [#1 – Guess Who - $20.6M]
8. 4/18/03 – $83.8M [#1 – Anger Management - $25M]
9. 4/02/99 – $72.7M [#1 – The Matrix - $27.8M]
10. 4/21/00 – $70.3M [#1 – U-571 - $19.5M]

Hollywood wouldn’t be making history were it not for the continued high octane ticket sales of Fast & Furious (Universal). The fourth in the F&F franchise is down about 59% from its rubber-burning $71M opening, but it will still likely manage a an estimated $28.78M, more than enough for second-place. The Diesel-Walker-Brewster-Rodriguez “speed machine” will have about $118M in the bank on Monday, putting it miles ahead of the other movies in the franchise.

The secret to getting the F&F franchise back on track? - Just add Diesel

10-DAY GROSSES FOR FAST & FURIOUS FRANCHISE
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $118M opening (projected)
2. 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003) – $83.6M opening
3. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $77.9M opening
4. The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift (2006) – $43.2M opening

Monsters Vs. Aliens from Dreamworks Animation continues to perform in monstrous proportions. The cutting edge 3-D spectacle added another $9.07M on its third Friday (no school for lots of kids), and it has reached $22.6M thanks to big family matinees on Saturday and Sunday. MVA is the fifth-best performer for Dreamworks Animation after 17 days, trailing only the Shrek franchise and Kung Fu Panda.

TOP 10 GROSSES FOR DREAMWORKS ANIMATION AFTER 17 DAYS
1. Shrek 2 – $287M
2. Shrek the Third – $255.9M
3. Shrek – $148.3M
4. Kung Fu Panda – $155.8M
5. Monsters vs. Aliens – $141M (projected)
6. Madagascar 2 – $137.1M
7. Madagascar – $128.4M
8. Shark Tale – $118.7M
9. Over the Hedge – $112.3M
10. Bee Movie – $93.6M

But Monsters Vs. Aliens looks even better when compared to other animated films released during non-peak times. Jeffrey Katzenberg’s latest is almost keeping pace with Fox’s Ice Age: The Meltdown.

TOP GROSSES FOR NON-SUMMMER, NON-HOLIDAY ANIMATED MOVIES AFTER 17 DAYS
- excludes movies released May-August and November-December –
1. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $147.2M
2. Monsters vs. Aliens – $141M (projected)
3. Shark Tale – $118.7M
4. Dr. Suess’ Horton Hears A Who! - $177.5M
5. Ice Age – $116.8M

Seth Rogen apparently has less MALL COP appeal than Paul Blart

Not all good news for the studios. Observe & Report, the new Seth Rogen, R-rated comedy from Warner Bros, got off to a sluggish start with about $4.76M and dipped below $4M on Saturday. Reviews are very good, and this one could benefit from positive word-of-mouth over the long haul, but the Warner Bros estimate is for just $11.1M or so for the weekend.

Meanwhile, Fox’s Dragonball: Evolution is a bomb with estimated sales of just $2M on opening day and a $4.65M 3-day start (8th place). Summit’s strong-holding Knowing rounds out the top five with a possible $6.67M for a new cume of almost $68M.

FRIDAY STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $17.39M, $5,577 PTA, $17.39M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $10.6M, $3,053PTA, $99.85M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $9.07M, $2,193 PTA, $127.46M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $4.76M, $1,746 PTA, $4.76M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) – $2.4M, $821 PTA, $63.73M cume
6. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $2.35, $864 PTA, $42.93M cume
7. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.3M, $870 PTA, $54.88M cume
8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $2M, $917 PTA, $2M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $1.25M, $666 PTA, $9.26M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $1M, $509 PTA, $34.85M cume

3-DAY STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $34M, $10,904 PTA, $34M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $28.78M, $8,290 PTA, $118M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $22.61M, $5,468 PTA, $141M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $11.14M, $4,085 PTA, $11.14M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) – $6.67M, $2,280 PTA, $68M cume
6. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $6.41M, $2,426 PTA, $59M cume
7. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $5.71M, $2,098 PTA, $46.29M cume
8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $4.65M, $2,132 PTA, $4.65M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $3.43M, $1,830 PTA, $11.45M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $2.99M, $1,525 PTA, $36.84M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Universal’s Fast & Furious is likely to cross the finish line first for a second consecutive weekend, following up last weekend’s almost $71M with about $30M, which would mark a 58% drop. Still, it must be considered a triumph that the re-teaming of Vin Diesel, Paul Walker, Jordana Brewster and Michelle Rodriguez may have $120M in US sales after just 10 days. That will mean that Fast & Furious will have almost doubled the domestic gross of The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift (the last film in the franchise), and this souped-up thrill ride could be headed for $160M US.

The likely second-place finisher this weekend will be Hannah Montana The Movie, which has far less sizzle than Miley Cyrus’ 3-D concert movie last year. 2008’s Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour was promoted as a one-week-only motion picture event and benefited from a 3-D upcharge, delivering a stunning $31.1M last February 1-3. This Miley movie will perform well, but it doesn’t appear to be a sensation-in-the-making.

Make no mistake. Miley Cyrus is an industry, and business is booming. Only four years ago, she was known merely as the 12-year-old daughter of the guy who sang Achy Breaky Heart. She auditioned for the role of “the best friend” in a new series being developed by The Disney Channel about an ordinary teenager who is secretly a pop star. Instead, she won the lead. Within a year of the debut of Hannah Montana, she had two albums that debuted at #1 on Billboard’s album charts. Then came the Best of Both World’s Concert Tour and 69 sold-out arena dates across North America.

Her new movie directed by Peter Chelsom, who has directed actresses like Diane Keaton in Town and Country ($6.7M cume) and Jennifer Lopez in Shall We Dance? ($57.9M cume), seems headed to an Easter weekend opening in the mid-$20M’s. I’m calling for $24.6M and a second-place finish.

Monsters Vs. Aliens 3-D should continue to play strongly with family audiences, possibly dipping by as little as 36% to a possible $21M and a #3 finish. MVA will likely be just shy of $140M in the US by Monday.

Seth Rogen's "mall cop" in OBSERVE & REPORT is far less mass appeal than PAUL BLART

The new Seth Rogen comedy and and the second “mall cop” movie of 2009 – could finish fourth. Observe and Report is written and directed by Eastbound & Down writer/creator Jody Hill (who appeared as an actor in Superbad). This movie is apparently just as edgy as Hill’s over-the-top raunchy series, but it has a 61% Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes.

Still, it sounds like it’s not for everybody, based on this review from Rick Mele from AskMen.com. “Unlikable characters, gratuitous male nudity, a dry and sometimes nihilistic sense of humor — there are moments when you can’t believe they got away with this, at a major studio no less.” I’ve learned not to underestimate these male-skewing, Apatow-style comedies, and this one seems to have a $20M target or maybe just shy of that mark ($19.5M).

A third new release Dragonball: Evolution (Fox), based on Akira Toriyama’s wildly popular manga, could reach the low teens, skewing to Males Under 25, particularly tween boys. Several animated versions of the show have appeared on The Cartoon Network, so there is an audience, although the new live action film’s 23% Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes would seem to limit the upside to a possible $10.7M by Monday.

My predicted numbers for the weekend top ten are for $126.4M. If Hollywood hits that number, it will be the biggest-grossing top ten Easter movies ever (by a lot), surpassing the 2002 Easter weekend, which was led by David Fincher’s Panic Room starring Jodie Foster.

ALL-TIME BIGGEST GROSSING EASTER WEEKENDS
- totals are for the top 10 films for the holiday 3-day -
1. 3/29/02 – $108.8M [#1 – Panic Room - $30M]
2. 4/14/06 – $107.08M [#1 – Scary Movie 4 - $40.2M]
3. 4/06/07 – $104.5M [#1 - Blades of Glory - $22.5M]
4. 3/21/08 – $94.65M [#1 - Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears A Who! - $24.6M]
5. 4/07/04 – $87.9M [#1 – Passion of the Christ - $15.2M]
6. 3/25/05 – $86.8M [#1 – Guess Who - $20.6M]
7. 4/18/03 – $83.8M [#1 – Anger Management - $25M]
8. 4/02/99 – $72.7M [#1 – The Matrix - $27.8M]
9. 4/21/00 – $70.3M [#1 – U-571 - $19.5M]
10. 3/28/97 – $69.9M [#1 – Liar, Liar - $25.4M]

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR APRIL 10-12
1. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $30M
2. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $24.6M
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $21M
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $19.5M
5. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $10.7M
6. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $5.1M
7. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $4.9M
8. Knowing (Summit) – $4.8M
9. Adventureland (Miramax) -$3.4M
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $2.4M

Hoping to reboot, the new “Fast & Furious” reunites the four main players from the original and is so stripped down and back to basics the title refuses to make room for even a “the” or an “and.” Within thirty minutes the story credibly and effortlessly reunites the cast (hat tip to the screenwriters for that) and a simple revenge plot is set up to allow for at least five major racing sequences, a couple of which are alone worth the price of admission.

Vin Diesel returns as Dominic — He Who Lives Life a Quarter Mile at a Time — Toretto and little’s changed since undercover FBI agent Brian O’Conner (Paul Walker) let him go eight years earlier. Toretto may be a an American fugitive hiding out in the Dominican Republic always looking over his shoulder, but he’s still with Letty (Michelle Rodriguez) and still making ends meet with dangerously elaborate hijackings carried out on the open road.

The plot turns in ways I won’t spoil, and Toretto finds himself back in Los Angeles determined to hunt down a mythical drug smuggler who did him wrong. As it happens, O’Brien, who’s still with the F.B.I., is after the same smuggler and so the old adversaries, who share a wary respect, form an uneasy partnership in order to survive undercover and achieve a mutual goal.

It’s both good and bad that the opening — a brilliantly shot and choreographed sequence that has Toretto and Letty attempting to hijack an oil truck — is far and away the best scene in the film (and one of the best action scenes of the year).  With this jaw-dropper, “Fast & Furious” sets the bar pretty high and never quite reaches it again, but the goodwill the scene engenders gets you through the rest of a film that unfortunately gets worse and worse as time passes, though always remains highly watchable.

There’s a second racing sequence staged on the streets of Los Angeles that’s nearly as good, but most of the action afterwards is too obviously CGI’d and so busy and hectic you go a little numb as opposed to being engaged in the moment. But for all this, the reboot does reclaim the charm of the original with a refreshing refusal to reach for any ambition above and beyond taking you away for a couple hours. “Fast & Furious” is a Hollywood film with a plot involving drug smuggling over the Mexican border that never once mentions illegal immigration, and for that rare display of maturity and discipline we should all be grateful.

For years I’ve bitterly complained about the dreaded shaky-cam that at this point has spoiled too many films to count, including “Transformers” (2007), ”Quantum of Solace” (2008), the last couple “Bourne” films and the nausea-inducing “Cloverfield” (2008). Thankfully, F&F doesn’t force that dreadfully lazy style on us more than a few times, but the spectacular opening hijack, which is filmed normally, is immediately followed by a foot chase involving Walker’s character shot with the shaky-cam, and being able to see the two styles, one right after the other, closes the case on why all shaky-cams must immediately be destroyed for the good of the children.

How was your week? Did you whistle on your way to work or buy extra lottery tickets? Those of you who’ve pinned hope on the Lotto, “Fast & Furious” is for you; a couple easy, entertaining hours in the dark with fast cars, good-looking women, a brainless plot and a generous lack of pretention that washes over you for 107 escapist minutes. Sure, the dialogue’s clunky and the acting a little wooden, but that’s only a bad thing if you see it after work because  ”Fast & Furious” might be the most perfect Called-In-Sick-When-I-Wasn’t movie since the original “Aliens vs. Predator” (2004).