—-

The reason studios release films like this on Christmas Day is to try and attract the crowds who want to see an action/thriller over a potential Oscar contender like “War Horse” or a family friendly picture like “We Bought a Zoo” during the holidays. Unfortunately this time around, the studio, Summit Entertainment, shouldn’t have taken on the movie to begin with because I’m sure they’ll lose money on it.

The first minute of “Darkest Hour” begins as we are introduced to the two main characters, Sean (Emile Hirsch) and Ben (Max Minghella), American software developers who are traveling to Moscow in attempt to sell their latest website concept. When they realize their idea for a global traveler social network has been stolen, they head to a bar to drown their sorrows. They end up meeting two girls, Natalie (Olivia Thirlby) and Anne (Rachael Taylor), and the boys manage to get a few words in before they realize the city is under attack.

The first alien assault is impressive, as we’re not quite sure what’s going on, but dying for the explanation that is sure to come! A classic action sequence shows humans being fried to dust by invisible alien life forms that have come down to the planet to suck Earth’s energy. It’s after the attack that the film loses momentum and goes downhill.

Sean, Ben, Natalie and Anne, along with one other, stick together and hide out in the bar’s storage room for a few days, where they snack on bar food and liquor until they have the courage to go out and brave the city. They find that Moscow is deserted, and the group tries to figure out what exactly destroyed it. They venture across the city and meet other survivors, all the while scrambling to avoid the extraterrestrials.

If helpless humans are biting the dust every couple of minutes, you would think that the 3D aspects of the film would blow you away, no pun intended. However, the 3D was completely non-existent, which is a shame because it could have really added to the film. The whole time I was wearing my 3D glasses, I’m wondering why we were ever handed them in the first place.

The film fails at the narrative element since director Chris Gorak (“Right at Your Door”) is so focused on constructing as many alien attacks as possible in the entire 80 minutes of the film, we never fully understand why the aliens came down and how they are exactly using energy to become invisible. It’s just one chase after another and one too many dust particles flying in the wind.

Then we are subjected to a romance subplot in which Hirsch and Thirlby’s characters become involved after one night of fighting alien forces together. It’s horrible and doesn’t make any sense.

The one and only aspect “The Darkest Hour” has going for it is the beautiful and historic backdrop of Moscow. Other than that, I felt embarrassed for all actors involved. Not only are they trying their best to make up for the absurd plot by putting on “dramatic acting faces,” “Oh no, let’s run for our lives since a blast of dust is coming this way, it could be the aliens!” this makes their behavior look cartoonish and unconvincing.

“The Darkest Hour” is a lifeless motion picture that is a slap in the face to all great films where E.T. is involved.

Ang Lee’s “Taking Woodstock,” a halfway competent but ultimately erratic, unfocused story of how “three days of peace and music” came to the small town of White Lake, New York and changed for the better the lives of those who embraced “the spirit,” not only celebrates the drug abuse and loveless sex that defined the “Woodstock Generation,” but goes beyond caricatures and into outright anti-Semitism to condemn those who didn’t.

Elliot Tiber (Demetri Martin), a young Jewish man in his early twenties, once again abandons his work as a struggling Greenwich Village artist to help his elderly parents (two Jewish stereotypes played by Henry Goodman and Imelda Staunton) through another summer season in the Catskills. Their “resort,” a filthy, dilapidated motel, is about to be foreclosed on and probably should be, but Elliott convinces an exasperated banker to give him one more season. But foreclosure is inevitable and Elliot knows it, and while his friends go to San Francisco with flowers in their hair, his dreams take a back seat to this annual guilt trip sponsored by his overbearing mother.

There are probably enough seasonal tourists to make for a nice profitable business. The problem is mom and dad. Her iron-willed hostility and suspicion towards everyone, her inexplicable cheapness – refusing to even change sheets between guests – chases all kinds of business away. And Dad? Well, he’s too beaten down by her and fatalistic to care.

As a matter of procedure and as President of the local Chamber of Commerce (a tired group of seven or so small business owners who meet in a dark barn), Elliot calls for votes issuing local permits, including one for his own annual music festival — maybe a nice string quartet this year. When the nearby town of Wallkill cancels a major music festival, Elliot begins to understand the power of a one-dollar permit and makes a phone call.

Led by long-haired and oh-so mellow Mike Lang (Jonathan Groff), the Woodstock organizers (hippies backed by a battalion of briefcase-toting lawyers) descend on White Lake in helicopters and limousines with military precision. Lang comes off as a shrewd hustler and mercenary businessman willing to put on a “groovy” front if it means suckering the dumb hippies into believing they’re not making The Man rich, but in the film’s best scenes, he meets his match with Max Yasgur (Eugene Levy), a kind but cunning dairy farmer with the land the festival needs.

The story hits a stride as the organizers move in, hand out bags of cash and with real savvy, manipulate, charm and, when necessary, bribe whoever stands in the way of their harnessing the resources necessary to handle the coming human wave holding those hundred-thousand (and counting) tickets already sold. Through the eyes of Elliott, watching the machinations of the impossible come together is infectious but Ang Lee isn’t interested in having us merely observe. Lines are about to be drawn.

Before Woodstock arrived, living in Elliot’s barn was a starving theatre troupe into the avante garde and the removing of their clothes (translation: untalented bums who spend their food money on drugs and now run the NEA). In a truly ugly scene they put on a performance for the locals, including small children, that ends with them ripping off their clothes and screaming “Racist warmongers!” “Republican c-ksuckers!”

This is not only a turning point for the townspeople but for we the audience. Unforgivable behavior is presented as humorous, and this is just the beginning.

With their town swamped by dirty, filthy hippies, their roads blocks and their lives completely disrupted, Director Lee refuses to give even a hint of humanity to those who oppose Woodstock. They, and therefore we, are instead portrayed as intolerant bigots, the kind who defile a Jewish-owned motel with swastikas and “Die, Faggots Jews.”

In other words, you’re either with Woodstock or you’re against it. And through Elliot we’re shown why we should be with it. In a sloppily structured subplot, Elliot finds his inner homosexual and beds down with a burly construction worker and later will enjoy an acid-infused, bi-sexual ménage a trois in the back of a van that’s so enlightening and liberating, man, he finally works up the nerve to find his true narcissism, tell his parents to back off and go pursue his own dreams.

The military takes its usual beating. Emile Hirsch plays Billy, a vet just back from the ‘Nam, man, and riddled with PTSD. The “good” Marine is played by Liev Schreiber … in a long blond wig, pumps and a dress. Of course, Schreiber’s character is the Obi Wan Kenobi of the story, the wise and brave one, the only one who’s got it all together because he’s true to who he really is.  

 
Fine, whatever, right? A movie about Woodstock from this Hollywood is bound to do a clunky, overbearing job attempting to mythologize an event so morally appalling God turned on the sprinklers to get the shit off His lawn. But the portrayal of Elliot’s mother is something else … by far the ugliest Jewish stereotype you’ve seen in a long time.

**Spoiler**

“Money-grubbing Jew.” That’s not figurative in “Taking Woodstock,” it’s literal. This horribly cheap woman who milks every penny from her customers, overcharges at every opportunity and uses the Holocaust to guilt the world, literally hoards money below the floor boards at the expense of the well-being of her own family. And when we leave her, she’s literally lying in bundles of bills, grasping them, claiming them for her own. The image is revolting, the heavy-handed symbolism amateurish, and the whole film just another excessive exercise in self-involved, baby boomer masturbation.

Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) is the odds-on Best Picture winner, and it expanded to about 600 additional playdates this weekend for a total screen count of 2,224. The other four contenders for Hollywood’s biggest prize, however, are on a combined 2,508 screens. That means that they are essentially done with their theatrical engagements in the US (barring a truly shocking upset). Even if you wanted to see the other four nominees, you might have trouble finding them at your local multiplex – especially if you live outside a major city.

The United States has approximately 40,000 individual movie screens. Only 11% of them are showing a Best Picture nominee this weekend. That speaks to how decidedly unpopular these movies are. For comparison in 1998, there were about 34,000 screens in the US, and on Oscar weekend 7,586 of them had a Best Picture nominee showing. That’s 22% of all American screens showing a Best Picture contender.

Here is how the Oscar weekend screen counts for 1998 and this year stack up.

1998
Titanic – 3,169 screens
Good Will Hunting – 1,805 screens
As Good As It Gets – 1,604 screens
L.A. Confidential – 723 screens
The Full Monty – 285 screens

2009
Slumdog Millionaire – 2,244 screens
The Reader – 962 screens
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 754 screens
Milk – 411 screens
Frost/Nixon – 381 screens

Slumdog Millionaire has moved from quirky underdog to beloved box office juggernaut. This weekend, Danny Boyle’s Mumbai masterpiece will close in on the magical $100M barrier.

OSCAR WEEKEND PERFORMANCE FOR BEST PICTURE NOMINEES

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
2,224 screens
$2.1M Friday
$7.5M 3-Day
$97.46M cume
$118M Projected Cume

THE READER
962 screens
$705,000 Friday
$2.53M 3-Day
$22.9M cume
$29M Projected Cume

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
754 screens
$320,000 Friday
$1.12M 3-Day
$124.1M cume
$129M Projected Cume

MILK
411 screens
$265,000 Friday
$928,000 3-Day
$28M cume
$34M Projected Cume

FROST/NIXON
381 screens
$494,000 Friday
$17.22M 3-Day
$21M Projected Cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

But, in the world of gambling, you always want to look for value. What are the films and performances with longer odds that would be worth a wager on Sunday? My purpose here is to establish a betting line for each of the six major categories, and then find the value bet in each category.

Question: Who will win Best Picture? Answer: Still, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

BEST PICTURE
Slumdog Millionaire – 1/7
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 6/1
Milk – 20/1
Frost/Nixon – 30/1
The Reader – 50/1

VALUE: I believe that in order to win an Academy Award, passion is required. Slumdog Millionaire has a passionate zeal among its supporters that will make it virtually unbeatable. Although I have made The Curious Case of Benjamin Button the second choice here, I give it very little chance of winning. It has major studio backing (Paramount), and it is certainly well-respected, but it is more admired than loved. So, for me the betting value is in Milk. Aside from Slumdog, it is the movie with the largest bloc of zealous fans. Gay and gay-friendly Academy members love the movie, and in the shadow of the passage of Proposition 8 in California, Milk is worth a $2 bet at the window.

Sean Penn's portrayal of Harvey Milk is now a decided underdog to Mickey Rourke

BEST ACTOR
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler – 1/2
Sean Penn, Milk – 3/2
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon – 10/1
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 25/1
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor – 35/1

VALUE: After colorful, rambling, verging on obscene acceptance speeches at both the Golden Globes and the BAFTA Awards, Mickey Rourke is the true favorite for Best Actor. Rourke has also campaigned hard, paying the paying the price for that Golden Globe win by schmoozing each and every one of those 95 Hollywood Foreign Press members. Penn just doesn’t play that awards campaign game at all, but actors love him. The only real betting value here is Penn, who still has a chance of winning his second Oscar.

It has been 25 years since Mery Streep won an Oscar

BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, The Reader – 1/2
Meryl Streep, Doubt – 5/2
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married – 4/1
Angelina Jolie, Changeling – 25/1
Melissa Leo, Frozen River – 35/1

VALUE: It is Kate Winslet’s year. Just ask anybody. She has two outstanding awards-caliber performances in The Reader and Revolutionary Road. If rules would have allowed, she might have been nominated twice in the Best Actress category. She’s 0-fer-5 lifetime at the Academy Awards and deserves to win, but she can be beaten. Jolie and Leo have no shot. Hathaway is the 3rd choice in the field, and a win is not inconceivable, but Streep is the value bet. The undisputed greatest living actress has not won an Oscar in 25 years, despite the fact that this is her eleventh nomination since winning for Sophie’s Choice in 1983.

Ledger is a lock

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heather Ledger, The Dark Knight – 1/100
Josh Brolin, Milk – 20/1
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder – 25/1
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt – 30/1
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road – 50/1

VALUE: None. There is no value in this category. Heath Ledger will win Best Supporting Actor posthumously. If you are unfamiliar with how odds work, 1/100 means that you would have to bet $100 to win just $1, and even then, it would be tough to get anybody to take your wager.

Marisa Tomei's "stripper with a heart of gold" in THE WRESTLER may earn her a second Oscar

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona – 1/2
Viola Davis, Doubt – 3/1
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler – 5/1
Amy Adams, Doubt – 12/1
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 15/1

VALUE: This is, by far, the most competitive of the major awards. The longest shot in the field, Taraji P. Henson from Ben Button, is only a 15-1 longshot. Woody Allen has a knack for helping actresses win in this category (ask Dianne Wiest , who scored for both Hannah and Her Sisters and Bullets Over Broadway). That points to a win for Penelope Cruz, who was raw and sexy as Maria Elena in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Davis can certainly win for her fleeting-but-powerful turn in Doubt, but my value bet is Marisa Tomei. Her first win, for My Cousin Vinny, was viewed by many as a fluke. In fact, there is an urban legend that she really didn’t win. The story goes that Jack Palance, who presented that year, read the wrong name (the legend claims that Vanessa Redgrave was the actual winner for Howard’s End). In reality, there is no doubt that Tomei is an Oscar winning actress, who gives her career-best performance in The Wrestler.

The uncompromising David Fincher

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire – 1/7
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 6/1
Gus Van Sant, Milk – 20/1
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon – 25/1
Stephen Daldry, The Reader – 35/1

VALUE: Nobody is going to beat Danny Boyle, but if I was looking for a strong value bet, I would wager on Fincher. He is a visionary with some amazing movies on his resume, including Se7en, Fight Club and Zodiac. He has worked with countless actors and industry types, and his uncompromising nature makes him tough to like, but easy to respect. If there were an upset in this category, Fincher is the only guy who could pull it off.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Only one of this year’s Best Picture nominees has inspired any real passion from the broad public. The almost-certain Best Picture winner is Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight), and its devotees, including critics and members of the Academy (not to mention yours truly), have made it a word-of-mouth smash hit. The Danny Boyle-directed feel-good Bollywood fusion movie made for a meager $14M added another $2.05M or so on Friday and is charting a 3-day course for about $7.4M. That will give the Slumdog a $77.4M take, and it could reach $90M-$95M before it’s through in American theatres.

David Fincher's The Curious Case of Benjamin is the only 2009 Best Picture nominee to top $100M

The other four Best Picture noms are The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount), Milk (Focus), The Reader (Weinstein) and Frost/Nixon (Universal). I approached  Benjamin Button as a little kid might approach broccoli. (You’re not allowed to leave the table until you eat it, and it’s supposed to be good for you.) It’s very long, a bit pretentious, and not nearly as good as other David Fincher-directed films like Se7en and Zodiac. After opening strong, the movie is now fading despite 13 Oscar nominations, selling about $640,000 in tickets Friday for a likely $2.24M 3-day. The cume will be a respectable $120M by Monday, but how many people have you actually heard saying, “I love Benjamin Button!”

The Reader, Milk and Frost/Nixon are now on as many screens as they will ever be, and they are certainly not setting the world on fire. Here’s how the five movies nominated for Hollywood’s biggest prize are performing this weekend.

BOX OFFICE PERFORMANCE OF BEST PICTURE NOMINEES FEBRUARY 6-8
Slumdog Millionaire – $2.05M Friday – $7.4M 3-day – $77.4M cume
Benjamin Button – $640K Friday – $2.4M 3-day – $120M cume
The Reader – $605K Friday – $2.3M 3-day – $16M cume
Milk – $285K Friday – $1.1M 3-day – $25.2M cume
Frost/Nixon – $189K Friday – $753K 3-day – $15.6M cume

Aside from Slumdog Millionaire, there’s not much box office upside here. Ben Button is unlikely to reach $130M, while Milk will probably fall short of $30M. The Reader could add a possible $8M before its done, and Frost/Nixon won’t even get to $20M domestic.

Frank Langella and Michael Sheen in Frost/Nixon, unlikely to top $20M domestic

PROJECTED CUMES OF 2009 BEST PICTURE NOMINEES
Benjamin Button – $127M cume (projected)
Slumdog Millionaire – $95M cume (projected)
Milk – $29M cume (projected)
The Reader – $23M cume (projected)
Frost/Nixon – $19M cume (projected)
Combined projected cume: $293M

If those numbers hold, the 2009 awards season will have given us three of the six weakest performing Best Picture nominees of the last decade.

TOP 10 LOWEST GROSSING BEST PICTURE NOMINEES OF THE LAST DECADE
1. 2006 – Letters From Iwo Jima – $13.75M cume
2. 2009 – Frost/Nixon – $20M cume (projected)
3. 2009 – The Reader – $25M cume (projected)
4. 2005 – Capote – $28.75M
5. 1999 – The Insider – $29M
6. 2009 – Milk – $30M cume (projected)
7. 2005 – Good Night & Good Luck – $31.5M cume
8. 2002 – The Pianist – $32.5M cume
9. 2006 – Babel – $34.3M cume
10. 2008 – There Will Be Blood – $40.2M cume

Now just two weeks away, the 2009 Oscar ceremony could be a Waterloo of sorts for the Motion Picture Academy. First-time Oscar producers Bill Condon and Lawrence Mark have promised something daring. A re-imagining of the Academy Awards telecast, coming off last year’s all-time lowest ratings.

Hugh Jackman, the talented Australian actor, will serve as host. He previously won an Emmy for his hosting of the Tony Awards a few years back (Here’s his opening musical number from the broadcast.) Yes he can sing and dance, but can he overcome the lack of appeal of the movies that the Academy has chosen to honor?

As a hardcore movie fan, I will be watching, but the average American doesn’t care about enough of these movies to draw a substantial audience. This group of Best Picture nominees seems destined to be the second-least popular group of nominees in the past fifteen years with an ultimate combined cume of just $293M.

Thandie Newton and Matt Dillon in Best Picture winner Crash, which grossed $54.5M domestic

WEAKEST TOTAL GROSS FOR BEST PICTURE NOMINEES
- last 15 years -
1. 2005 – $245M
Crash, Brokeback, Capote, Good Night & Good Luck, Munich
2. 2009 – $293M (projected)
Slumdog, Ben Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader
3. 2006 – $296M
Departed, Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen
4. 1996 – $306M
English Patient, Fargo, Jerry Maguire, Secrets & Lies, Shine
5. 2007 – $357M
No Country, Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood
6. 1993 – $368M
Schindler’s List, Fugitive, Name of the Father, The Piano, Remains of the Day
7. 1995 – $378M
Braveheart, Apollo 13, Babe, Il Postino, Sense & Sensibility
8. 2004 – $401M
Million Dollar Baby, Aviator, Finding Neverland, Ray, Sideways
9. 1998 – $440M
Shakespeare in Love, Saving Private Ryan, Life is Beautiful, Elizabeth, Thin Red Line
10. 1994 – $543M
Forrest Gump, Four Weddings & a Funeral, Pulp Fiction, Quiz Show, Shawshanke Redemption

I would love to be wrong. I’d love to believe that keeping the identities of presenters a secret, and a song-and-dance man from Down Under, and the sight of Brad and Angelina on the red carpet, and a gutsy, little independent movie from Mumbai, and a guarantee from producers that the show won’t exceed three hours, and the dramatic posthumous recognition for Heath Ledger – that it will all work to draw a huge television audience. But I am feeling more certain that ABC’s Oscars telecast this year may go down as the lowest rated ever.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The result is a well-reviewed (56% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) action film that will help to satisfy blockbuster-hungry audiences waiting for Warner Bros’ Watchmen (due March 6). Taken has scored big on its opening weekend. After grabbing an estimated $9.4M, the movie surged on Saturday to $11.62M (up almost 24% from opening day) and, despite today’s Super Bowl, the film could reach $24.62M according to studio estimates. That will be more than enough to win the Super Bowl 3-day, and positive word-of-mouth could get this one into the $70M-$75M range domestic.

Prolific French filmmaker Luc Besson

Taken re-teams French action maestro Besson with director Morel, who previously worked together on the brilliant District B13 ($411K opening – $1.2M in the US – $6.9M in France). For the prolific Besson, this movie marks the all-time best US opening for one of his films.

ALL-TIME BEST DOMESTIC OPENINGS FOR LUC BESSON FILMS
- as producer, writer and/or director -
1. Taken (producer/writer) – $24.62M opening (projected)
2. The Fifth Element (writer/director) – $17M opening – $63.8M domestic
3. Transporter 2 (producer/writer) – $16.5M opening – $43M domestic
4. Kiss of the Dragon (producer/writer) – $13.3M opening – $36.8M domestic
5. Transporter 3 (producer/writer) – $12M opening – $31.7M domestic
6. The Transporter (producer/writer) – $9.1M opening – $25.2M domestic
7. Point of No Return (writer) – $7.1M opening – $30M domestic
8. The Messenger: The Story of Joan of Arc (producer/writer/director) – $6.3M opening – $14.2M domestic
9. The Professional (producer/writer/director) – $5.3M opening – $19.5M domestic
10. Arthur & the Invisibles (producer/writer/director) – $4.3M opening – $15.1M domestic

Besson has a tremendous international following, and Taken was already a hit before it ever opened in the US. The movie has already been released in many overseas territories, generating $68.8M in 2008. That includes $11.2M in the UK and $9.4M in France. With international numbers like that, it’s not a huge surprise that the picture is working so well in the states.

The irrepressible Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) is headed for a #2 finish for the weekend. The Adam Sandler-produced comedy sold another $4.2M in tickets on its third Friday, and Kevin James has ridden that dopey Segway to another strong 3-day of about $14M. By Monday morning, PB:MC will have banked a stellar $83M.

Poster for the 1998 Japanese film Ringu

In 1998, Hollywood discovered a Japanese film called Ringu, and they have been remaking Asian horror films ever since. Director Gore Verbinski turned the get-under-your-skin creepy Ringu into an American version called, simply, The Ring, and that 2002 movie starring Naomi Watts grossed a spectacular $129M.

The latest Asian horror adaptation is The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount), based on the 2003 South Korean thriller Janghwa, Hongryeon (released in the US as A Tale of Two Sisters). The movie was a sensation in Korea where it remains the all-time highest-grossing horror film, and now Elizabeth Banks (W.) and David Strathairn (Good Night and Good Luck) headline the American version. After grabbing a decent $4.3M to start the weekend, The Uninvited got a 9% Saturday bump, and it will likely finish the weekend in third-place with $10.51M.

That is slightly disappointing given the performance of some other recent Asian horror remakes. (Note these are all based on Japanese films with The Uninvited being the first South Korean adaptation.)

2002 – The Ring – $15M opening – $129.1M cume
2004 – The Grudge – $39.1M opening – $110.3M cume
2005 – The Ring Two – $35M opening – $76.2M cume
2005 – Dark Water – $9.9M opening – $25.4M cume
2006 – The Grudge 2 – $20.8M opening – $39.1M cume
2006 – Pulse – $8.2M opening – $20.2M cume
2008 – One Missed Call – $12.5M opening – $26.9M cume
2008 – The Eye – $12.4M opening – $31.4M cume
2009 – The Uninvited – $10.51M opening (projected)

In final studio estimates, Hotel for Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) has managed a surprise fourth-place finish with $8.7M for a new cume of $48.2M. Meanwhile, the Super Bowl has pushed Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (Warner Bros) to #5 with $8.6M. Walt Kowalski has now growled his way to an amazing $110.5M cume.

Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) has received a nice boost from and its 10 Oscar nominations, adding another $7.58M. This micro-budgeted movie ($14M) which almost went straight to video when Warner bros didn’t quite know what to do wth it has grossed a staggering $67M. Also this weekend, director Danny Boyle has won the ultimate Oscar bellweather, the DGA award, and that may seal the deal for Best Picture and Best Director at the upcoming Academy Awards.

The other new wide release is the horribly-reviewed New In Town (Lionsgate), starring Academy Award winner Renee Zellweger. The romantic comedy that makes sport of small town America opened soft, but it could have been worse. The movie coaxed about $2.4M on Friday (#7 for the day), and Lionsgate says the movie will finish the weekend with $6.75M, enough for eighth place. That number marks only the eighth-best opening of Zellweger’s career.

ALL-TIME BEST RENEE ZELLWEGER OPENINGS
- non-animated –
1. Me, Myself & Irene – $24.2M opening
2, Cinderella Man – $18.3M opening
3. Jerry Maguire – $17M opening
4. Cold Mountain – $14.5M opening
5. Leatherheads – $12.6M opening
6. Bridget Jones’s Diary – $10.7M opening
7. Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason – $8.6M opening
8. The Bachelor – $7.4M opening
9. Nurse Betty – $7.1M opening
10. New In Town -$6.75M opening (projected)

There is not much of an Oscar bounce for the current crop of Best Picture nominees. Stephen Daldry’s The Reader (Weinstein) and Milk (Focus) starring Sean Penn are the last two of the big five to go wide, and neither film has scored big.

David Kross and Kate Winslet in The Reader

The Reader, which has Academy Award nominations for Best Picture, Best Actress: Kate Winslet, Best Director: Daldry, Best Adapted Screenplay: David Hare and Best Cinematography, expanded to 1,002 locations on Friday and could only muster $700,000. That should project to about $2.37M or so for the 3-day and a new cume of $12.64M.

Meanwhile, the Gus Van Sant-directed Milk, which some pundits believe may be peaking with Academy voters at just the right time, will not be a box office juggernaut. Despite 8 Oscar nominations, Milk managed only a $471 Per Theatre Average on Friday on 882 screens. The first wide weekend for the Harvey Milk biopic will likely yield only $1.41M for a new domestic cume of $23.41M.

Golden Globe winner Sean Penn as slain gay rights leader Harvey Milk

In all, the five Best Picture nominees, now all in wide release, have combined for less than $17M for the weekend. By Monday, the five movies contending for Hollywood’s biggest prize have a combined total domestic gross of just $234M. I am projecting that Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Reader will finish with a total of about $285M in US ticket sales, which would be the second-worst total of the last 15 years.

For example last year, the five Best Picture nominees grossed a combined $357M, so the 2009 crop will be down a full 20% from 2008. Snubbing movies like The Dark Knight and Gran Torino, Academy voters have narrowed the field to what amounts to a very expensive arthouse movie (Benjamin Button), a surprise crowd-pleaser (Slumdog Millionaire) and three niche art titles with very specific audiences (Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Reader). When the ratings for the Oscar telecast are dismal, the Academy will have its own voters to blame.

The worst combined gross of the five Best Picture nominees in the last 15 years was in 2005 when Crash, Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Good Night & Good Luck and Munich generated $245M at the box office. That resulted in the all-time third-worst television rating for the Academy Awards broadcast.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Taken (Fox) – $9.4M, $2,953 PTA, $9.4M cume
2. NEW – The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $4.3M, $1,834 PTA, $4.3M cume
3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $4.2M, $1,310 PTA, $73.57M cume
4. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $2.6M, $862 PTA, $104.54M cume
5. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) – $2.55M, $867 PTA, $28.13M cume
6. NEW – New in Town (Lionsgate) – $2.4M, $1,236 PTA, $2.4M cume
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.3M, $1,630 PTA, $61.86M cume
8. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2M, $633 PTA, $41.52M cume
9. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) – $1.5M, $1,067 PTA, $41.84M cume
10. Bride Wars (Fox) – $1.25M, $630 PTA, $51.61M cume
11. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $1.1M, $517 PTA, $114.02M cume
12. Inkheart (Warner Bros) – $975,000, $367 PTA, $10.06M cume
13. Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $850,000, $789 PTA, $14.22M
14. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $775,000, $466 PTA, $21.07M cume
15. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $730,000, $1,011 PTA, $11.46M cume
16. The Reader (Weinstein) – $700,000, $699 PTA, $10.97M cume
17. Notorious (Fox Searchlight) – $590,000, $546 PTA, $33.9M cume
18. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $425,000, $385 PTA, $13.33M cume
19. Milk (Focus Features) – $415,000, $471 PTA, $22.39M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Taken (Fox) – $24.62M, $7,736 PTA, $24.62M cume
2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $14M, $4,367 PTA, $83.37M cume
3. NEW – The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $10.51M, $4,485 PTA, $10.51M cume
4. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.7M, $3,160 PTA, $48.22M cume
5. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $8.6M, $2,852 PTA, $110.54M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $7.68M, $4,703 PTA, $67.24M cume
7. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) – $7.2M, $2,447 PTA, $32.78M cume
8. NEW – New in Town (Lionsgate) – $6.75M, $3,478 PTA, $6.75M cume
9. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) – $4.26M, $3,030 PTA, $44.6M cume
10. Inkheart (Warner Bros) – $3.7M, $1,394 PTA, $12.79M cume
11. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $3.61M, $1,698 PTA, $116.54M cume
12. Bride Wars (Fox) – $3.57M, $1,798 PTA, $53.93M cume
13. Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.65M, $2,469 PTA, $16.03M
14. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $2.53M, $1,524 PTA, $22.83M cume
15. The Reader (Weinstein) – $2.37M, $2,369 PTA, $12.64M cume
16. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $2.35M, $3,255 PTA, $13.08M cume
17. Notorious (Fox Searchlight) – $1.7M, $1,574 PTA, $35M cume
18. Milk (Focus) – $1.41M, $1,603 PTA, $23.41M cume
19. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $1.39M, $1,265 PTA, $14.31M cume

Investor Warren Buffet coined the phrase “skin in the game” to describe a situation where executives use their own money to buy shares in their company. The so-called Oracle of Omaha likes companies where insiders have their own money invested because they work harder, care more and generally are more emotionally invested.

The problem with the Oscars is that voters are nominating films that relatively few people have seen. The five movies nominated for Best Picture this week – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, The Reader and Frost/Nixon – have combined to gross just $186.7M. The Dark Knight passed that box office total early in its fifth day of release.

TO-DATE BOX OFFICE FOR 2009 BEST PICTURE NOMINEES
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – $104.3M
Slumdog Millionaire – $44.7M
Milk – $20.6M
Frost/Nixon – $8.9M
The Reader – $8M

How many average moviegoers and potential Oscar viewers have “skin in the game?” Based on the current average US ticket price ($7.15), only about 26 million Americans have seen Hollywood’s big five so far.

Yes, I think The Dark Knight should be a Best Picture nominee. It is absolutely one of my five favorite movies of 2008, and I believe it to be a masterpiece. Artistic excellence and blockbuster status are not mutually exclusive. I believe that one of the reasons Christopher Nolan’s comic book sequel soared past $500M US is that it struck a very real cultural chord with audiences.

There was talk that this comic book adaptation was too dark, but it is actually a relentlessly optimistic movie. What Heath Ledger’s Joker character demonstrates is that, even when the world is in shambles and people are faced with impossibly difficult choices, they do the right thing. The message of TDK is that regular people, at their core, are good. We need more movies like that right now.

I also believe that Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino, although not a perfect movie, should not have been snubbed entirely. No Best Actor for Eastwood’s turn as the irascible Walt Kowalski, and not even a Best Original Song nomination for co-writing the heartfelt theme song with his son Kyle and jazz vocalist Jamie Cullum. Gran Torino, by the way, with a to-date cume of $79.8M, has grossed more than all of the Best Picture nominees except Benjamin Button.

Other snubs that will depress the viewing audience include Best Original Song contenders, Bruce Springsteen (The Wrestler), Miley Cyrus (Bolt), Beyonce (Cadillac Records) and Alicia Keyes (Quantum of Solace). I have yet to get a good answer about why the Academy narrowed the category to just three nominees. If Bruce Springsteen is big enough for the halftime show at Super Bowl 43, he must be big enough for Hollywood’s biggest night, and if there were the usual five nominations here, Springsteen would have certainly been among them.

A disastrously low 31.76M viewers watched last year’s Oscar show for an all-time worst 18.6 Nielsen rating. Last year’s Best Picture nominees combined to gross $357.9M. This year, the five nominees will be lucky to combine for more than $300M domestic. How much lower can the TV ratings get?

There is a growing divide between what Academy voters view as film excellence and what audiences actually want to see. That’s not to say that all Best Picture nominees should be blockbusters, but they should include some true, crowd-pleasing hits. If you look at this list, it’s pretty clear where the Oscars came off the rails.

1993
Best Picture – Schindler’s List – $96M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $368.4M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 46.2M

1994
Best Picture – Forrest Gump – $329.7M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $543.5M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 46.26M

1995
Best Picture – Braveheart – $75.6M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $378.1M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 44.5M

1996
Best Picture – The English Patient – $78.6M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $306.5M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 40.8M

1997
Best Picture – Titanic – $600.8M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $998.2M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 57.2M

1998
Best Picture – Shakespeare in Love - $100.3M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $440.9M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 45.6M

1999
Best Picture – American Beauty – $130M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $647M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 46.5M

2000
Best Picture – Gladiator – $187.7M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $637M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 42.9M

2001
Best Picture – A Beautiful Mind – $170.7M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $620.1M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 40.5M

2002
Best Picture – Chicago – $170.6M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $664.5M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 33M

2003
Best Picture – Lord of the Rings: Return of the King – $377M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $725.9M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 43.5M

2004
Best Picture – Million Dollar Baby – $100.5M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $401.6M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 42.1M

2005
Best Picture – Crash – $54.5M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $245.3M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 38.9M

2006
Best Picture – The Departed – $132.3M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $296.7M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 39.9M

2007
Best Picture – No Country For Old Men – $74.2M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $357.9M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 31.7M

In 1997, there were three $100M grossing movies including Titanic ($600.7M cume). Over the next seven awards cycles, there were at least two $100M grossers in each Best Picture field, and in 2000 there were four hits of that magnitude.

Then came 2005, when the five Best Picture nominees combined to gross just $245M.

BOX OFFICE FOR 2005 BEST PICTURE NOMINEES
Crash – $54.5M
Brokeback Mountain – $83M
Capote – $28.75M
Good Night and Good Luck – $31.5M
Munich – $47.4M

The disconnect between the Oscars and rank-and-file movie fans started in 2005. This is where the Academy Awards “came off the rails.” Only 38.9M viewers watched that telecast, and the Academy has continued marching to the beat of that noncommercial drummer ever since. In the final analysis, 17 of the last 20 Best Picture nominees (including the just announced group) have failed to break the $100M threshold. Unless the Academy figures out a way to give more rank-and-file moviegoers “skin in the game,” the ratings slide will continue. My hunch is that the 2009 Oscar telecast will be the lowest rated in history.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.