BOX OFFICE ANALYSIS:

The box office slump hit pretty hard over the holiday weekend. While retail sales everywhere else skyrocketed to record numbers, Hollywood took a 12% hit when compared to this time last year. It’s going to be difficult to predict how some of these films ultimately do. Now that we’re in the holiday season, something like “Hugo” that looks like a bust could have surprising legs straight through to Christmas and actually end up doing pretty well.

The upcoming competition doesn’t look overwhelming, especially for films aimed at kids. “Hugo,” “The Muppets,” and  ”Arthur Christmas” have the field pretty much to themselves until December 16 when the third “Alvin and the Chipmunks” opens.

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1: $62.3M — Keeping pretty close pace with its predecessor. With a $110M budget and a total take of $221M in just 10 days, the break-even is probably close to $300M, which is what “Eclipse” did domestically. Another $400M poured in from overseas. These movies are money-making machines.

2. The Muppets: $42.2M — Word of mouth almost assures this will have legs through Christmas. Everyone seems to love it.

3. Happy Feet Two: $18.4M — With a total take of $44M over 10 days, this is a genuine flop. Again, I think the politics of the previous entry turned off a lot of parents. People enjoyed “Happy Feet;” I know I did, but the liberal eco-messaging diminished the fun and left a bad taste. Especially off-putting is how that messaging was aimed at children. Hollywood used to teach universal values to our kids. Honesty, bravery, and loyalty were the themes of the day. Now it’s divisive issues like global warming and gay marriage. Hollywood overstepped on this one and 600 people lost their jobs.

4. Arthur Christmas $17M: — This has to be a disappointment. Because it’s the only offering this season with “Christmas” in the title, that might help as the season rolls on, but the overall concept seemed tired to me. How many movies are out there that promise to show us how Santa is able to deliver all those toys in just one night? Hollywood has to remember that home video is a reality. They might not have been born when it was released, but everyone over the age of eight has already seen “The Santa Clause.”

5. Hugo: $15.4M — Scorsese’s 3D entry had a terrific per screen take of $12,000, but that’s a wee bit less than the “Muppets” and far less than “Breaking Dawn” in its second week. There’s talk that the epic will expand closer to Christmas, but by then it will have to compete with Spielberg’s “Tintin.” Reportedly, the film cost well over $100M to produce.

6. Jack and Jill: $14.1M — This is definitely looking like a rare disappointment from Sandler.

9. Tower Heist $10.2M — Done.

10. The Descendents: $9.2M — George Clooney’s Oscar bait expanded to 433 screens and did a killer $21.4K per screen.  Expansion imminent. Clooney could use a hit. His last piece of Oscar-bait, “The Ides of March,” has yet to break $40M.

11. J. Edgar: $6.7M — Three weeks in release and $28.8M makes this (along with “Happy Feet Two”) one of the biggest disappointments of the season.  The talk about Hoover’s sexuality likely turned a lot of people off. The left is as obsessed with sexuality as they are race. The rest of us just don’t care and therefore had no desire to get pulled into what amounts to a stupid debate.

13. My Week With Marilyn: $ 2.1M – Weinstein’s Oscar-bait did a pretty fair $8500 per on 244 screens.

In related news…

INTERSTING LOOK AT THE COLLAPSE OF DVD SALES:

Iin 2007, six titles sold over 10 million DVD units. In 2008, only “The Dark Knight” did. In 2009, only “Twilight” did. In 2010, “Avatar” barely broke 10 million. As of now, with only 5 weeks to go, 2011 is looking pretty dismal. Some of that is made up in Blu-rays, but not enough to even recreate the numbers from 2007.

The recession didn’t hit until 2008, but while the economy has gotten a little better over the last three years, according to these numbers, DVD sales haven’t.  Also, take another look at this weekend’s box office in comparison to other retail sales. While the rest of retail America enjoyed record sales over Thanksgiving, Hollywood saw a 12% drop.

Hollywood can crybaby about Redbox and Netflix Streaming and piracy all they want, and those are factors in these numbers, but it’s also a fact that movies simply aren’t as good as they used to be and this is starting to reflect in every objective measurement available.

If you make movies people want to see, people will see them and they will buy them. It’s really that simple.

THE 5 BEST MARILYN MONROE PERFORMANCES

In all the hoopla and drama that surrounds Monroe, something that’s easily forgotten is just how good of an actress she was in both comedic and dramatic roles. And if you think about it, she had a much higher bar than most actors. She had to make you forget she was Marilyn Monroe.

Monroe is truly amazing in “The Misfits,” in what would both her and Clark Gable’s final film. Monty Clift would only make three more films and die a few years later in 1966. The three of them all seem so tired, so drained of life. John Huston’s existential character study would be perfectly fine without all the true-life subtext, but with it you have one of Hollywood’s most fitting and poignant farewells — right up there with John Wayne’s goodbye in “The Shootist.”

5 ENTERTAINING DOCUMENTARIES RECENTLY RELEASED ON NETFLIX INSTANT

I agree that “Buck” is terrific and well worth your time. It’s rare that Hollywood spends any time in this part of the country and the film itself, which has some pretty substantial themes, introduces you to people usually stereotyped and demeaned by our Cinematic Overlords.

I also have to agree that Tony and Ridley Scott’s “Life In a Day” is a total bore. The concept is interesting: take footage filmed on the same day by thousands of people all around the world and turn it into a patch quilt look at the world. The result, unfortunately, proves that even documentaries require a three-act structure. With no narrative, “Life In a Day” is like watching  someone flip channels through various security cameras.

Let me recommend a few docs that aren’t on this particular list:

Winnebago Man — People fascinate me, especially everyday people. I had never heard of Jack Rebney before seeing this documentary, but I guess he became some sort of Internet sensation after 20 year-old video of him swearing between takes during the filming of an industrial film was released on YouTube. The director, Ben Steinbauer, decided to track Rebney down, and while there’s nothing profound to be learned here and the ending works a little too hard to be uplifting, the film does (unintentionally) do something fascinating.

Have you ever thought back a decade or two and wondered what might have happened to someone you once knew? Not a family member or someone famous, but some guy you worked with for a few years or the nice lady who once lived next door. “Winnebago Man” isn’t the movie it poses as — a look at how the Internet can create celebrity. It’s actually a better movie than that, a movie that traces the life of an ordinary man to its conclusion.

Candyman: The David Klein Story — Klein tells the story of how he invented Jelly Belly and how it was stolen from him, costing him millions upon millions. For whatever reason Weird Al Yankovic shows up, but somehow it all works. Director Costa Botes wisely uses the doc to explore the character of Klein and doesn’t take sides in the legal disputes. What was most bizarre for me was that Klein lives and works only a few blocks from where I did in Los Angeles. There was my old neighborhood… in a movie!

H.H. Holmes: America’s First Serial Killer — Truth is always stranger than fiction and usually more exciting and interesting.

ANALYST WARNS: PAY TV WILL FADE AS YOUNG VIEWERS LOOK FOR CHEAPER ALTERNATIVES

I love this, and it’s a big deal:

It’s a big deal when an analyst as respected as Credit Suisse’s Stefan Anninger slashes his  pay TV subscription forecast for 2012 to a 200,000 loss from a 250,000 gain, which is what he did this morning. But the rationale behind his decision is even more noteworthy: He cites a Credit Suisse-commissioned survey that found evidence of a youthful revolt against the pricey video packages. Lots of young adults aren’t cutting the cord; they never subscribe in the first place.  … These young adults and their children will have grown up “in a world in which the Internet (at least from a technological perspective) was capable of delivering a reasonably satisfying video experience” for free, or a lot less than a cable or satellite TV subscription.

So many lousy channels are propped up by these pricy packages. How else can junk nobody watches like OWN, LOGO, CNN, MSNBC, and a hundred others survive?

I cannot wait to see the day when these also-rans are forced to make it on their own, and I am counting the days to when the contract on my package ends.

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LAST NIGHT’S SCREENING

Best laid plans, right? Thanksgiving weekend represented the first stretch of time off that didn’t involve a move across the country I’d have in a long time, and of course that’s when the flu decided to strike. What a bummer. We had all kind of plans including a punch list of stuff that needed doing around the house. Unfortunately, a three-day Nyquil coma made all that impossible. Yesterday morning I woke up at least feeling human and was able to enjoy a few episodes of my new “Wild Wild West” DVD collection.

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SCOTTDS’ EPIC LINK-TACULAR

THE RETURN OF CAMERON CROWE

FIVE REASONS ‘DRIVE’ WON’T DO WELL AT THE OSCARS

WHY WE CAN’T WAIT FOR SEASON 2 OF ‘GAME OF THRONES‘

CELEBRATING 20 YEARS OF U2′S ‘ACHTUNG BABY‘

SECRET BEHIND MARILYN MONROE’S MOST MEMORABLE MOMENT

FIRST IMAGES FROM RIDLEY SCOTT’S ‘PROMETHEUS‘

FIRST POSTER FOR ‘MEN IN BLACK 3′

R.I.P. ANNE MCCAFFREY, AUTHOR OF ‘DRAGONRIDERS OF PERN‘

CHRISTIAN BALE CONFIRMS HE’S DONE WITH BATMAN

PRODUCER GALE ANNE HURD DEVELOPING AREA 51 SERIES

THOSE ‘JERSEY SHORE’ X-MAS ORNAMENTS ARE FINALLY HERE

REMAKE OF ‘CHOPPING MALL’ BEING PLANNED

BIGGEST CELEBRITY HAIR OF THE 80S

POSTER FOR ANGELINA JOLIE’S IN THE ‘LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY‘

WILL THE ‘LORD OF THE RINGS’ TRILOGY GET A 3D RE-RELEASE ONE DAY?

TOP 10 CRAFT CONTRIBUTIONS TO MARTIN SCORSESE FILMS

A LOOK AT RED LETTER MEDIA, CREATORS OF THOSE EXTENSIVE ‘STAR WARS’ REVIEWS

10 DELIGHTFULLY HAMMY VILLAIN PERFORMANCES…

…AND 10 MORE!

THE ESSENTIAL GUIDE TO LOCATING FAMOUS HUMANS IN THE MUPPET MOVIES

‘THE WALKING DEAD’ SEASON 2 MIDSEASON FINALE REVIEW

A BAND IN INDIANA IS WRITING ORIGINAL SONGS FOR EVERY ‘STAR TREK’ EPISODE!

COOL VIDEO: ‘ALIENS’… ON ICE!!

‘WAR HORSE’ DAZZLES ON SCREEN: SPIELBERG SCHMALTZY AND SOARING

COOL INFOGRAPHIC: EVERYTHING THERE IS TO KNOW ABOUT PRODUCT PLACEMENT

TOP 10 BIZARRE KUNG-FU FILMS

REGIS PHILBIN HOPES TO RETURN TO TV WITH PRIMETIME TALENT SHOW

10 FILMS WE CAN BARELY BELIEVE ARE REAL

20 FACTS ABOUT ‘INCEPTION‘

10 VIDEO GAMES THAT ARE INCREDIBLY WELL-WRITTEN

10 YEARS LATER: A LOOK BACK AT ‘THE ROYAL TENENBAUMS‘

A LOOK AT ‘THE SIMPSONS” FAILED PRIMETIME CARTOON COMPETITORS

10 BEST FAKE TRAILERS

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CLASSIC PICK FOR TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 29

TCM:

2:00 AM EST:  Captain Blood (1935) –  After being unjustly sentenced to prison, a doctor escapes and becomes a notorious pirate. Dir: Michael Curtiz Cast:  Errol Flynn, Olivia de Havilland, Lionel Atwill. BW-119 mins, TV-G, CC.

One of the top five greatest adventure films ever made. Storytelling at its finest. This made Flynn an overnight star and you’ll see why within the first 15 minutes. This was also the first of eight films Flynn and the luminous Olivia de Havilland would star in together. Later they would pair up for such classics as “Charge of the Light Brigade,” “The Adventures of Robin Hood,” “The Private Lives of Elizabeth and Essex,” “Dodge City,” and “They Dies With Their Boots On.”

Other than Fred and Ginger, Errol and Olivia are my favorite on-screen couple. Their movies captured so well what was happening behind the scenes. He was desperately in love with her but she never gave in to him. Flynn was a notorious womanizer but when you read his memoirs, the superb “My Wicked, Wicked Ways,” you get the sense that she was the only woman he truly loved.

Giants.

This might sound corny, but there are certain films that plaster the smile of a happy idiot on my face from beginning to end, and anything with these two does exactly that. They work like a drug. They mainline joy.

--Please send tips/suggestions/requests/complaints to jnolte@breitbart.com

The Los Angeles Times:

“For those who like renting movies, Hollywood may soon have a message: Prepare to wait.

“In an effort to push consumers toward buying more movies, some major film studios are considering a new policy that would block DVDs from being offered for rental until several weeks after going on sale.

“Under the plan, new DVD releases would be available on a purchase-only basis for a few weeks, after which time companies such as Blockbuster Inc. and Netflix Inc. would be allowed to rent the DVDs to their customers. The move comes as the studios are grappling with sharply declining DVD revenue, which has long propped up the movie business.

“Reed Hastings, chief executive of DVD-by-mail company Netflix, revealed that he had discussed delayed-rental proposals with several of his biggest suppliers. People close to the situation at several studios confirmed that such plans were under consideration and probably would take effect next year.

“”The studios are wrestling with declines in DVD sales while the DVD rental market has been modestly growing,” Hastings said on a conference call Thursday with analysts after Netflix reported impressive 24% revenue growth last quarter. “One of the mitigating steps some are considering is introducing a DVD retail sales-only window for a few weeks.”

“DVD sales have been hurt by the recession, which has caused tapped-out consumers to opt for cheaper rentals. But Hollywood studios prefer that consumers buy DVDs because that generates significantly higher profits than rentals.”

Read the full article here.

First and foremost, I’m a movie lover. Nothing competes for my attention in this regard, including dollar rentals and the like. But I’m just not buying anywhere near the number of new releases I did just ten years ago. Obviously, this is anecdotal evidence, so make your own comparisons:

1998  – I purchased 15 of the top 20 money makers…

1999 — 18 of the top 20.

2000 — 16 of the top 20.

2001 — 14 of the top 20.

And nothing’s changed. My tastes are the same. I still enjoy and don’t regret a single purchase (well, maybe “Planet of the Apes” — but I keep watching thinking it will get better). Now flash-forward to the last few years  and the numbers collapse:

2006 – 5 of the top 20.

2007 — 9 of the top 20.

2008 — 6 of the top 20

2009 — 6 of the top 20 (thus far, that I intend to purchase)

Box office attendance has been much steadier than DVD sales, so the crash in the home video market might have something to do with the ”fool me once” rule. Gambling, sight unseen, on a night out at the movies is an American tradition – something to do — a kind of event. Purchasing the same film to take home with the idea of watching again and again is a completely different buyer’s decision, one where you ask yourself if you want to relive your theatrical experience.

In my case, increasingly, the answer’s been no, and in many cases, hell no.

Sometimes the simple answer really is the right one … or the one the industry just doesn’t want to face.