Analyst Predicts Declines in TV Viewing, Movie Attendance in 2012
by John NolteFascinating analysis. Four key points have been cherry-picked by me, but you’ll want to read the whole thing.
THR:
1. “We believe 2012 will be a watershed year for the media industry and serve as a historic inflection point for traditional TV consumption,” Greenfield wrote. “While TV viewing has consistently risen as choice (channels) and access (VCR/DVR) expanded, we believe consumers have reached a breaking point. There are simply not enough hours in the day for online activities to be purely incremental.” …
2. Movie-going is also “less and less compelling,” meaning that attendance will remain in secular decline, he argued. “3D, IMAX, XD – are they really worth the extra money? Maybe for a one or two movies a year, but Hollywood is increasingly looking to premium exhibition formats as the solution to falling top-line revenues (as home entertainment profits drop),” he wrote. “Unfortunately, bad movies at premium prices are still bad movies and end up alienating your best customers.” …
3. Digital video platforms could benefit though as Greenfield predicts that Google’s YouTube will increases its video spending 10-fold and enable some subscription offerings, while Amazon.com will launch a stand-alone subscription video streaming service, and Facebook will become a video platform. …







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