Chicken Little Comes to Broadway

Contrary to popular belief the sky is NOT falling on Broadway. Yes, about a dozen shows closed after the holidays, but up until about 15 years ago, that was the norm.  There have traditionally been three “seasons” for shows to close on Broadway:

• Right after New Years because shows cashed in on all of the tourism in New York, but then can’t survive January and February, the worst times of the year for ticket sales.
• The first week of May because that’s when the Tony nominations come out and many shows hang on to see if they get nominated, and if they don’t they’re done.
• The second week of June because that’s right after the Tony Awards, and the shows that don’t win are barely scraping by and will not sustain large enough grosses to stay in their house through the Summer.

So, the fact that many shows just closed is not historically rare.  The real indicator as to the health of the industry is how many shows are scheduled to open between now and that magic first day of May (the Tony nomination cut-off).  A quick look at the schedule over at Playbill.com shows us that no fewer than 21 shows are already scheduled, if not already on sale.  When I look at the current shows running and the schedule for new shows, it appears that by the time we hit May 1st almost every Broadway house will have had a tenant this Spring … even the Belasco… even the Brooks Atkinson!   (more…)