I drop the movie off and get a half-assed “hello” from one of the cashiers. I take one look around and the place is dead. I can’t even remember what I came here for. I start browsing. All I can hear is the static of the old TVs playing what is probably “Schindler’s List,” but the poor quality of the sets make it look like an Ed Wood movie and the cashiers talking about what level they are in “Skyrim.” I grab my movie and head to the counter.

The college-age, bearded cashier scans my movie without much thought. Clearly, he probably wants to be somewhere else … and maybe I do, too. He’s nice enough, and I even hear the other cashier explain the plot of the movie “Super 8″ to a customer over the phone which is impressive in this day and age of the too-ironic-to-be-good-at my-minimum-wage-job attitude. I leave the store to hop in my gas-guzzling truck to head home to the cool tune of about $10 in gas ( I live two miles away – an over exaggeration, but not by much, sadly).

If I still had Netflix, my movie viewing night would have gone a little something like this: I pop open my laptop, pick the genre I want and start watching whatever I want and, if I get bored, I just stop the movie and start a new one. Hmm. Easy as pie. And we know how we all love pie! Because we are American! Hoo-ah (except meat pie — is that even real!?).

Considering you probably watch your movies through Netflix and your movie watching life is just as easy, if not more easy than what I just wrote, you’re probably laughing at my one of many Blockbuster experiences and wondering why the hell I don’t just wake up … oh, but I have. It’s time to wake you up, sirs and ma’ams.

In 2009, there was this mostly forgotten Bruce Willis starring sci-fi flick entitled “Surrogates” – forgotten by most, except me. The film was about a world where people live vicariously through robot surrogates that make them stronger, faster, etc., all done from the comfort of their own home. Meanwhile, there is a small fraction of society that prefers the real deal to what the surrogates provide (these people can be seen as an obvious reference to the Tea Party). And Bruce Willis is the guy caught in between everything. I had Netflix when the movie came out. Then I deleted it. Why would I do such a thing?

The movie reminded me of something. Film lovers will agree when I say that films provide more than just a passionate look into another world for us and a reflection of our own. Films go hand in hand with experiences that enrich us as people, storytellers, etc. Where would movies be if storytellers simply sat at home watching everything on a computer, never bothering to experience what the world and the movie viewing world has to offer, good or bad? Movies would suck. Well, movies already do suck, but there are some good ones, I declare! And we wouldn’t have those gems without the experiences of the artists behind it.

On one occasion, I was searching for “The Boondock Saints: All Saints Day” so I could introduce the right-wing vigilante brothers to a couple buddies of mine. While searching, I ran into a man gazing at the first film. He had the famous line “In nomine patris” tattooed on his right arm. When he saw me reach for the sequel to the beloved cult classic, we struck up an interesting conversation. He asked how I knew about the films. We must’ve talked for at least fifteen minutes. We talked about the journey of the film’s director, Troy Duffy, and what our thoughts were on vigilantes in general and what our favorite films and books were that dealt with the subject.

When I go to rent a movie, I have something to come home and write about — not just the movie but the whole experience. I run the risk of picking something bad, I run the risk of spending too much money, but so what? I also run the risk of meeting new people, encountering obstacles I may hate. I’m experiencing something intimate between me, these four walls and whatever B-grade schlock I choose to indulge on.

Why do you think filmmakers like Robert Rodriquez and Quentin Tarantino and movie critic Stephen Hunter all preferred the grindhouse theaters to the more convenient upper class theaters? Because the whole experience gave in to their wild movie watching imaginations. There is no imagination involved in sitting at a computer browsing randomly through film after film. The grindhouse feature houses were to regular movie theaters what Blockbuster is to Netflix, in a way. They provide a hand in hand experience for us.

There’s always been this fight of trying to eliminate consequences from everyday life, mistakes, but what if those are what define us as human beings? Those consequences and those mistakes are certainly what is the backdrop to most of our beloved films. So stick with your Netflix and your laptop. It’s fine. Me? Call me a dinosaur, call me a Nazi, but I think I’m going to stick to the zit-faced bearded kid behind the counter and the bad TVs and the candy and sodas and the old couple browsing through the horror section stupefied because they think this is supposed to be the comedy section. I’ll stick with all that because that’s my grindhouse. That’s my experience.

I can wait.

Can you wait?

Having to wait 90 days to see something like ”Green Lantern” or “Green Hornet”  feels as right as pushing back a dental appointment.

Besides, with Hollywood already pouring millions into re-electing President FailureTeleprompter, I’m suddenly not all that eager to send a whole lot of cash their way.

IMDB:

Blockbuster Express, the kiosk operator owned by Ncr Corp., not the Dish satellite company, which owns the brick-and-mortar stores, will inaugurate a new pricing structure for movie rentals beginning Nov. 8. Users will have to pay $3.00 for the first night during the first 28 days after a movie’s release. From the 29th day until the 90th, the first night’s rental will be $2.00. After that, it will drop to $1.00. From the second night on the rental charge will be $1.00. Blu-ray Disc rentals will cost an additional $1.00 across each level. The move presumably comes in response to studio threats to discontinue wholesale sales of their discs to all mass renters[.]

More here.

One of Blockbuster’s big advertising pushes of late has been to beat Netflix over the head for raising their prices. This is a 200% price increase on Blockbuster’s part, well above the Netflix percentage.

Just saying.

WOW: WARNER BROS. STOPS GIVING NEW TITLES TO BLOCKBUSTER

Studios are getting desperate:

According to The Financial Times, Warner Bros has stopped supplying discs of its latest releases to Blockbuster after the rental chain refused to agree to a 28-day window between the films going on sale and becoming available for rent, The FT reports.

FT:

The move is the first step taken by Warner Bros to stimulate retail sales and make owning film content more appealing to consumers. It will be followed by efforts to expand similar release “windows” already in place with other movie rental services, such as Netflix and Redbox.

Blockbuster rejected Warners’ window request and instead bought discs of “Horrible Bosses” and “The Green Lantern” on the open market to in turn offer them to customers for rent.

“They felt it was important to continue to offer day and date rental so rather than work with us they went around us,” Kevin Tsujihara, president of Warner Bros Home Entertainment, told the paper.

If you’ve ever wondered why Hollywood is so enamored with tyrants like Castro and Chavez, look no further than this. It must be infuriating to have Blockbuster run to Walmart as a workaround to this stupid 28-day moratorium.

5 WAYS NETFLIX CAN STOP THE BLEEDING

This is not only a good list, but what’s most fascinating about it is how it’s focused on the importance of Netflix’s streaming content.

That is the future of home video, and as we see in the post above, the studios are terrified right now and completely unable to deal with or harness the massive shift in consumer behavior.

Related: Gary Oldman Sad About Online Movie Streaming

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SCOTTDS’ EPIC LINK-TACULAR

FIRST LOOK AT THE NEW THREE STOOGES *fixed*

THE FIFTY GREATEST CULT MOVIES OF ALL TIME

UNIVERSAL DEVELOPING FILM ADAPTATION OF ROBERT LUDLUM’S ‘THE JANSON DIRECTIVE‘

WHY DO HORROR FILMMAKERS LOSE THEIR EDGE AS THEY AGE?

10 MOST FAR-FETCHED FUTURE DYSTOPIAS

PIXAR’S JOHN LASSETER TO GET A STAR ON THE HOLLYWOOD WALK OF FAME

CAN A SILENT FILM STILL WIN BEST PICTURE?

CINEMATOGRAPHER JOHN SEALE DISCUSSES HIS COLLABORATION WITH DIRECTOR PETER WEIR

CAN A MOVIE BE GOOD IN SPITE OF ITS DIRECTOR?

BRAD BIRD WILL MAKE A SEQUEL TO ‘THE INCREDIBLES’ WHEN HE’S READY

SCREENWRITER JOHN AUGUST: WHO KILLED THE MYSTERY?

UPCOMING ‘STAR TREK’ SEQUEL WON’T BE CALLED ‘STAR TREK 2‘

‘DUMB AND DUMBER’ SEQUEL HIRES WRITERS

BEVERLEY HILLS COP 4 WITHOUT EDDIE MURPHY?

WILL SMITH WISELY WAITS TO SEE ‘INDEPENDENCE DAY 2′ SCRIPT

FAVORITE RETURNING TV SHOWS IN TROUBLE

THE 30 COOLEST FILMS EVER

JOHN LENNON’S ROTTEN TOOTH FOR SALE FOR $16K

EDDIE MURPHY IS DONE WITH FAMILY FILMS?

WHAT MAKES A GOOD SERIES FINALE?

“WAHLBURGERS” IS NOW OPEN FOR BUSINESS. (AND COULD SOON BE A REALITY SHOW).

HOBBITS REUNITE TO REMINISCE AHEAD OF LORD OF THE RINGS’ 10TH ANNIVERSARY

STEVE BUSCEMI HAS AMASSED QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE DEATH REEL

DAY ONE ON THE ‘DALLAS’ SET WITH LARRY HAGMAN

‘THE LORAX’ TRAILER TEASES A BRIGHT & BUBBLY DR. SEUSS MOVIE

‘MAN OF STEEL’ CLIMAX REVEALED?

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LAST NIGHT’S SCREENING

Something remarkable happened last night. On my fifth or sixth attempt to see what all the fuss was about regarding Martin Scorsese’s ‘The Departed‘ (2006), for the first time ever I actually enjoyed it. That doesn’t mean I’ve joined the other camp that rates it as Best Picture-worthy. But at least I no longer hate it. That’s not a small thing.

Please use the comment section to give me the credit I deserve for hanging in there. Maybe tonight I’ll give that dull piece of crap ‘2001: A Space Odyssey’ another shot. Or ‘Raging Bull.’

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CLASSIC PICK FOR FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28

TCM:

11:15 PM  Other, The (1972)  — A boy’s evil twin leads him on the path to murder. Dir: Robert Mulligan Cast:  Uta Hagen, Diana Muldaur, Chris Udvarnoky.  C-100 mins, TV-14, CC, Letterbox Format

Creepy, atmospheric little horror film. The pace is a tad slow in spots but well worth it.

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--Please send tips/suggestions/requests/complaints to jnolte@breitbart.com

The company’s now-famous little red envelopes first gained fame around the time the dot-com boom went bust in early 2000. Video rental behemoth Blockbuster, reeling from a catastrophic bleeding of market share to this wily challenger, entered the rent-by-mail fray in 2004, but it soon became apparent that they were going to get their hats handed to them. An even younger upstart, Redbox, began as a subsidiary of McDonald’s, and by 2007 its kiosks has spread across the fruited plains of America like wildfire, in the process putting the final nails in Blockbuster’s coffin.

My folks watch a lot of flicks, either at the theater or at home, so there’s always opportunities for improving the experience — the Great TiVo Immersion Program of 2005, masterminded and forced upon them by moi in the face of strenuous objections, turned out to be life changing. So after years of watching them drive out in the early evening to various video stores, I bought them a year-long Netflix subscription in Christmas 2009, and waited to see how it played out.

To my surprise, they hated it. For a year they bemoaned that Netflix never seemed to have the newest titles already available at the local rental shops. Even when using the service to queue older titles, they never got used to having to wait a day or two for DVDs that they could have in fifteen minutes by driving down the street. Eventually they settled in to using Netflix only for older or obscure films, things they otherwise wouldn’t have rented at all, and of course taking chances on such films was more of a hit-or-miss proposition than using Redbox to rent new movies they were jazzed to see. Meanwhile Netflix’s newest innovation, streaming to computers and TV, went entirely unused.

Now that their subscription is expired and they are once again happily back to using Redbox and video stores exclusively, I found myself wondering whether Redbox had some sort of edge over Netflix I hadn’t adequately factored in — some combination of convenience, selection, and the satisfaction that comes from immediate impulse renting that would soon allow them to supplant Netflix the way Netflix once supplanted Blockbuster.

It wasn’t long before I came to the conclusion that Redbox, for all of its merits, would ultimately flame out before it reached the pinnacle of the video renting mountain. Sure, their business model currently works well for those people who want a new movie and want it tonight. But what of the people whose pop culture horizons go back further than the week’s new releases? Redbox makes a token effort at sprinkling their kiosks with a smattering of older and classic selections, but they don’t even begin to compete with Netflix’s monster backlist.

Furthermore, what of the people who catch some long-running show on TV, and then want to plow through an archive of previous seasons? What of the many people who live in rural areas far from the nearest kiosk? Or the many people who are older and can’t leave the house, or don’t drive due to some disability, or can’t jump in the car and find a Redbox because they are too busy watching young kids? There are many situations where by-mail and streaming models are superior to the selection down the street.

Add to that the chilling precedent of the decline of music CDs — how quickly they went the way of vinyl records and 8-tracks. These days, everyone is increasingly dumping their bookshelves full of CDs in favor of carrying around a single iPod that connects to MP3-enabled speakers in the house, in cars, on the computer, and anywhere else there’s a USB plug. I think it’s beyond any doubt that physical DVDs are soon going to vanish in the exact same way. Even massive blu-rays are now effortlessly copied by pirates and shared over the Net, and legal video distributors like Netflix will all soon be streaming in 1080p resolution to living room TVs.

Netflix jumped onto the unlimited streaming bandwagon years before it became commercially viable, and that foresight will redound to its benefit for many years to come. Streaming is going to be huge, and Redbox, like Blockbuster before it, is being forced to try to compete in that arena. But by doing so they are competing on Netflix’s home turf, facing a company famed for its easy-to-use website, its fantastic movie-recommending algorithms, and its astounding selection of titles.

Once physical DVDs become a non-issue, studios will buckle one by one and offer their new releases to the major streaming companies, just as the record companies all eventually conceded to Apple’s 99 cents per individual song plan. The day new movies are able to be streamed directly to your TV via Netflix on the same day they are available at Redbox kiosks, that’s the end of that brick-and-mortar (metal-and-plastic?) business model.

So I think that when the dust clears, we’ll see Netflix standing tall as the preferred video rental company in the land, streaming its content long after Blockbuster, Redbox, and even many cable companies have declared bankruptcy. Not that they’ll have long to crow about it, given the looming Armageddon hanging over the industry as a whole.

What is that, you ask?

I remember in 1996 buying a 4 gig hard drive and thinking it was the bee’s knees, a virtual Great Plains of unused digital space that would take years to fill. A scant fifteen years later, a single writable DVD in larger than that, and a flash drive is many times bigger while costing many times less. And this trend of exponentially increasing data storage, file compression, and internet bandwidth will eventually hit a seismic pivot point. For me personally, that point will be the day a single torrent appears from some movie-loving college kid called “All movies, 1888-Present,” an archive that has every single title available at Netflix, in a format that will sit comfortably on the latest hard drives or flash drives. Five minutes after clicking on that file, it will be sitting next to the “All music” and “All books” files on the user’s media drive, with the contents capable of being streamed to any number of devices in their electronic world.

That’s when all bets are off, and Netflix (and Hollywood itself) will be left to come up with a whole new business model.

All of Hollywood, in one file, copied down to your computer in five minutes. It will happen, and sooner than anyone thinks possible.

Nowadays, when I trawl through Blockbuster aisles, I find films with major stars that never saw the dark light of a theater. I’ve never even heard of some films. And I wonder about the parallel between society and film. History may be defined as the intersection of amazing events with amazing people. Will Mallory make the climb up the cliffs of Navarone? People created history by their choices, hesitations, fears, desires, whimsy, obsessions and visions.  Will the Colonel give in to Saito’s brutality? Great films, anchored by magnetic personalities, cast wide nets across our consciousness. Will Lawrence survive the Devil’s Anvil?

“Epic,”film producer Frank McCarthy (“Patton”) once told me, “is defined as a man who changes himself, his community and his world.”  In short, all the great character arcs in a movie script have driven the creation of events and epics which, in turn, are pushpins in World History. A noted script consultant, Chris Vogler,  distilled and explained the work of Joseph Campbell, an expert on tribal storytelling and myth. Vogler explains the hero’s journey through the Ordinary World, the Call to Adventure, the Refusal of the Call, Mentor, Threshold, Tests by Allies and Enemies, Approach, Ordeal, Reward and The Road Back.

I recently watched “JCVD,” a feature about action actor Jean Claude Van Damme’s downward spiral and its intersection with a bank robbery. The film was fascinating, awash with the celebrity-spin culture and its detritus.  Jean Claude plays himself in a confessional return to his hometown of Brussels and speaks of celebrity, inadequacy and his impotence against drugs and hype.  I believe that the film will become a noted sociocultural marker in the decline of Hollywood’s celebrity-driven culture.

The Great Epic World will always survive because the human attraction to its form is too resonant and deeply embedded in our humanity. Anchoring the Great Story on a ‘Star System’ is like giving an old drunk uncle with a key to the liquor cabinet and the keys to your prized Mustang. The rise of the celebrity culture is shattering our present film industry model. Perhaps this is good.

The industry was initially only feature films, shown with newsreels, cartoons, a B-picture and then the “A” film. Aside from rallies and religious gatherings, the movie experience was our common cultural touchstone. Then TV came into our living rooms where the binding involved “I Love Lucy” and Walter Cronkite. You saw both or shut your mouth around the water cooler the next day.  Jump forward with VHS, DVD, Blue-Ray, Netflix downloads, blogs, internet, Twitter, texting and cheap cell phones. We have the news burst cycle of seconds in an ADD mediacentric world. As individuals strive to establish their celebrity to become Stars, we experience the banality of the personal expose’ for the sake of fame, or worse, infamy.

This sensibility is confirmed by the misuse of ‘fame’ and ‘infamy.’ People don’t know the difference because, in a morally relativistic world, meaning doesn’t matter. Only the end result. Infamy is an “extremely bad reputation, public reproach, or strong condemnation as the result of a shameful, criminal, or outrageous act.” Fame is gained through merit. Infamy through shame. Fame and shame. But both lead to celebrity and, so it is thought, to Stardom.

With the assault of posts on Twitter, Facebook, Digg and more, we have lost not only our ability to focus, but on the meaning and stature of hard work, merit and heroic ordeal. One must ask onself: In today’s world, would Ulyssess feel obliged to Twitter his bathroom breaks?

We have lost the distant mystery of the stage. Looking up at our heroes, we sought their thoughts and inner secrets, their interests an tod experiences. Mysteries that we wanted to unravel, discover, and unravel again and again. But no more. My friend’s grandfather laments the downfall of newspapers due to the Internet, but I remind him that the crushing of the candlemakers by light bulb manufacturers was equally tragic. Both are the forward rush of innovation. We cannot turn back the clock to the past’s delivery of the epic but we can adjust our targets for the new media world.

Story.

When all is said and done, the story makes the star. The Journey of a thousand leagues gives them the adventure, ordeal, the mettle of a tested battle. And it is within our grasp once again. The cameras, equipment and computers available now to the filmmaker are creative, inexpensive and flexible. The early cameras were no more than a box with a lense, requiring a sunny day to get exposure on film with an ASA of 8. And as Chaplin once said for writing a movie scene, ‘Give me a pretty girl and a policeman.’  Drama ensues.

So as the Stars plummet to earth, the Creator may once again become a King of storytelling. Forget the Stars. Concept is key. Heed the Call to Adventure. Accept the Ordeal.

Return with Your Reward.

The result is a well-reviewed (56% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) action film that will help to satisfy blockbuster-hungry audiences waiting for Warner Bros’ Watchmen (due March 6). Taken has scored big on its opening weekend. After grabbing an estimated $9.4M, the movie surged on Saturday to $11.62M (up almost 24% from opening day) and, despite today’s Super Bowl, the film could reach $24.62M according to studio estimates. That will be more than enough to win the Super Bowl 3-day, and positive word-of-mouth could get this one into the $70M-$75M range domestic.

Prolific French filmmaker Luc Besson

Taken re-teams French action maestro Besson with director Morel, who previously worked together on the brilliant District B13 ($411K opening – $1.2M in the US – $6.9M in France). For the prolific Besson, this movie marks the all-time best US opening for one of his films.

ALL-TIME BEST DOMESTIC OPENINGS FOR LUC BESSON FILMS
- as producer, writer and/or director -
1. Taken (producer/writer) – $24.62M opening (projected)
2. The Fifth Element (writer/director) – $17M opening – $63.8M domestic
3. Transporter 2 (producer/writer) – $16.5M opening – $43M domestic
4. Kiss of the Dragon (producer/writer) – $13.3M opening – $36.8M domestic
5. Transporter 3 (producer/writer) – $12M opening – $31.7M domestic
6. The Transporter (producer/writer) – $9.1M opening – $25.2M domestic
7. Point of No Return (writer) – $7.1M opening – $30M domestic
8. The Messenger: The Story of Joan of Arc (producer/writer/director) – $6.3M opening – $14.2M domestic
9. The Professional (producer/writer/director) – $5.3M opening – $19.5M domestic
10. Arthur & the Invisibles (producer/writer/director) – $4.3M opening – $15.1M domestic

Besson has a tremendous international following, and Taken was already a hit before it ever opened in the US. The movie has already been released in many overseas territories, generating $68.8M in 2008. That includes $11.2M in the UK and $9.4M in France. With international numbers like that, it’s not a huge surprise that the picture is working so well in the states.

The irrepressible Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) is headed for a #2 finish for the weekend. The Adam Sandler-produced comedy sold another $4.2M in tickets on its third Friday, and Kevin James has ridden that dopey Segway to another strong 3-day of about $14M. By Monday morning, PB:MC will have banked a stellar $83M.

Poster for the 1998 Japanese film Ringu

In 1998, Hollywood discovered a Japanese film called Ringu, and they have been remaking Asian horror films ever since. Director Gore Verbinski turned the get-under-your-skin creepy Ringu into an American version called, simply, The Ring, and that 2002 movie starring Naomi Watts grossed a spectacular $129M.

The latest Asian horror adaptation is The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount), based on the 2003 South Korean thriller Janghwa, Hongryeon (released in the US as A Tale of Two Sisters). The movie was a sensation in Korea where it remains the all-time highest-grossing horror film, and now Elizabeth Banks (W.) and David Strathairn (Good Night and Good Luck) headline the American version. After grabbing a decent $4.3M to start the weekend, The Uninvited got a 9% Saturday bump, and it will likely finish the weekend in third-place with $10.51M.

That is slightly disappointing given the performance of some other recent Asian horror remakes. (Note these are all based on Japanese films with The Uninvited being the first South Korean adaptation.)

2002 – The Ring – $15M opening – $129.1M cume
2004 – The Grudge – $39.1M opening – $110.3M cume
2005 – The Ring Two – $35M opening – $76.2M cume
2005 – Dark Water – $9.9M opening – $25.4M cume
2006 – The Grudge 2 – $20.8M opening – $39.1M cume
2006 – Pulse – $8.2M opening – $20.2M cume
2008 – One Missed Call – $12.5M opening – $26.9M cume
2008 – The Eye – $12.4M opening – $31.4M cume
2009 – The Uninvited – $10.51M opening (projected)

In final studio estimates, Hotel for Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) has managed a surprise fourth-place finish with $8.7M for a new cume of $48.2M. Meanwhile, the Super Bowl has pushed Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (Warner Bros) to #5 with $8.6M. Walt Kowalski has now growled his way to an amazing $110.5M cume.

Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) has received a nice boost from and its 10 Oscar nominations, adding another $7.58M. This micro-budgeted movie ($14M) which almost went straight to video when Warner bros didn’t quite know what to do wth it has grossed a staggering $67M. Also this weekend, director Danny Boyle has won the ultimate Oscar bellweather, the DGA award, and that may seal the deal for Best Picture and Best Director at the upcoming Academy Awards.

The other new wide release is the horribly-reviewed New In Town (Lionsgate), starring Academy Award winner Renee Zellweger. The romantic comedy that makes sport of small town America opened soft, but it could have been worse. The movie coaxed about $2.4M on Friday (#7 for the day), and Lionsgate says the movie will finish the weekend with $6.75M, enough for eighth place. That number marks only the eighth-best opening of Zellweger’s career.

ALL-TIME BEST RENEE ZELLWEGER OPENINGS
- non-animated –
1. Me, Myself & Irene – $24.2M opening
2, Cinderella Man – $18.3M opening
3. Jerry Maguire – $17M opening
4. Cold Mountain – $14.5M opening
5. Leatherheads – $12.6M opening
6. Bridget Jones’s Diary – $10.7M opening
7. Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason – $8.6M opening
8. The Bachelor – $7.4M opening
9. Nurse Betty – $7.1M opening
10. New In Town -$6.75M opening (projected)

There is not much of an Oscar bounce for the current crop of Best Picture nominees. Stephen Daldry’s The Reader (Weinstein) and Milk (Focus) starring Sean Penn are the last two of the big five to go wide, and neither film has scored big.

David Kross and Kate Winslet in The Reader

The Reader, which has Academy Award nominations for Best Picture, Best Actress: Kate Winslet, Best Director: Daldry, Best Adapted Screenplay: David Hare and Best Cinematography, expanded to 1,002 locations on Friday and could only muster $700,000. That should project to about $2.37M or so for the 3-day and a new cume of $12.64M.

Meanwhile, the Gus Van Sant-directed Milk, which some pundits believe may be peaking with Academy voters at just the right time, will not be a box office juggernaut. Despite 8 Oscar nominations, Milk managed only a $471 Per Theatre Average on Friday on 882 screens. The first wide weekend for the Harvey Milk biopic will likely yield only $1.41M for a new domestic cume of $23.41M.

Golden Globe winner Sean Penn as slain gay rights leader Harvey Milk

In all, the five Best Picture nominees, now all in wide release, have combined for less than $17M for the weekend. By Monday, the five movies contending for Hollywood’s biggest prize have a combined total domestic gross of just $234M. I am projecting that Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Reader will finish with a total of about $285M in US ticket sales, which would be the second-worst total of the last 15 years.

For example last year, the five Best Picture nominees grossed a combined $357M, so the 2009 crop will be down a full 20% from 2008. Snubbing movies like The Dark Knight and Gran Torino, Academy voters have narrowed the field to what amounts to a very expensive arthouse movie (Benjamin Button), a surprise crowd-pleaser (Slumdog Millionaire) and three niche art titles with very specific audiences (Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Reader). When the ratings for the Oscar telecast are dismal, the Academy will have its own voters to blame.

The worst combined gross of the five Best Picture nominees in the last 15 years was in 2005 when Crash, Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Good Night & Good Luck and Munich generated $245M at the box office. That resulted in the all-time third-worst television rating for the Academy Awards broadcast.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Taken (Fox) – $9.4M, $2,953 PTA, $9.4M cume
2. NEW – The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $4.3M, $1,834 PTA, $4.3M cume
3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $4.2M, $1,310 PTA, $73.57M cume
4. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $2.6M, $862 PTA, $104.54M cume
5. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) – $2.55M, $867 PTA, $28.13M cume
6. NEW – New in Town (Lionsgate) – $2.4M, $1,236 PTA, $2.4M cume
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.3M, $1,630 PTA, $61.86M cume
8. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2M, $633 PTA, $41.52M cume
9. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) – $1.5M, $1,067 PTA, $41.84M cume
10. Bride Wars (Fox) – $1.25M, $630 PTA, $51.61M cume
11. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $1.1M, $517 PTA, $114.02M cume
12. Inkheart (Warner Bros) – $975,000, $367 PTA, $10.06M cume
13. Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $850,000, $789 PTA, $14.22M
14. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $775,000, $466 PTA, $21.07M cume
15. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $730,000, $1,011 PTA, $11.46M cume
16. The Reader (Weinstein) – $700,000, $699 PTA, $10.97M cume
17. Notorious (Fox Searchlight) – $590,000, $546 PTA, $33.9M cume
18. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $425,000, $385 PTA, $13.33M cume
19. Milk (Focus Features) – $415,000, $471 PTA, $22.39M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Taken (Fox) – $24.62M, $7,736 PTA, $24.62M cume
2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $14M, $4,367 PTA, $83.37M cume
3. NEW – The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $10.51M, $4,485 PTA, $10.51M cume
4. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.7M, $3,160 PTA, $48.22M cume
5. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $8.6M, $2,852 PTA, $110.54M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $7.68M, $4,703 PTA, $67.24M cume
7. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) – $7.2M, $2,447 PTA, $32.78M cume
8. NEW – New in Town (Lionsgate) – $6.75M, $3,478 PTA, $6.75M cume
9. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) – $4.26M, $3,030 PTA, $44.6M cume
10. Inkheart (Warner Bros) – $3.7M, $1,394 PTA, $12.79M cume
11. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $3.61M, $1,698 PTA, $116.54M cume
12. Bride Wars (Fox) – $3.57M, $1,798 PTA, $53.93M cume
13. Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.65M, $2,469 PTA, $16.03M
14. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $2.53M, $1,524 PTA, $22.83M cume
15. The Reader (Weinstein) – $2.37M, $2,369 PTA, $12.64M cume
16. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $2.35M, $3,255 PTA, $13.08M cume
17. Notorious (Fox Searchlight) – $1.7M, $1,574 PTA, $35M cume
18. Milk (Focus) – $1.41M, $1,603 PTA, $23.41M cume
19. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $1.39M, $1,265 PTA, $14.31M cume

Jim Carrey and his high-concept comedy Yes Man (Warner Bros) will win the pre-Christmas weekend out-performing Will Smith’s more challenging Seven Pounds (Sony), although both films seem to be under-performing industry expectations.. Audiences are saying “Yes” to a breezy, cheerful, undemanding movie experience, although it is not a particularly emphatic “Yes.” In my Final Weekend Tracking column, I predicted $26.35M for Yes Man, and industry tracking certainly supported an opening in the mid-$20M’s. Instead, moviegoers have agreed to the tune of only $6.7M on opening day, and that could translate to a less-than-expected $18.76 or so by Monday morning.

Meanwhile, Will Smith has landed in unfamiliar territory. This strange new land for the World’s Biggest Movie Star is called “Second Place.” Seven Pounds managed to churn up only $5.3M to start the 3-day, and I am projecting a $15.63M opening. This movie, a re-teaming of Smith with his Pursuit of Happyness director Gabriele Muccino, has endured scathing early reviews and some definite “Will Smith is a little full of himself” backlash. The movie has been described as pretentious and downright dumb by some critics, and heart wrenchingly-optimistic and emotionally cathartic by others. The end result is Smith’s weakest opening since 2000’s Ali ($14.7M).

Yes Man is the latest in a year-long winning streak for Warner Bros Not only have they locked up the studio market share race for 2008, this decent-not-great opening may lift Warner Bros to finish the year with more domestic ticket sales than any studio in history. If my opening weekend number for Yes Man holds, I am projecting that the film could bank a possible $48M (conservatively) before the end of the year. Add to that a projected cume of $120M for Four Christmases by the close of business on December 31, and an anticipated $5.4M or so from the limited engagements of Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (70 playdates starting Christmas Day), and Warner Bros would reach an annual domestic sales figure of $1.75 billion, surpassing Sony’s $1.71 billion take in 2006.

The Dark Knight ($530.7M domestic so far) is the lynchpin of Warner Bros’ soon-to-be record-breaking year, but there are 4 other $100M+ grossing films that have helped to push the studio over-the-top. Along with Four Christmases, which will blow by $100M on Sunday, WB has also scored with Sex and the City ($152.6M cume), Get Smart ($130.3M cume) and Journey to the Center of the Earth ($101.7M cume). Sony set the previous record with one $200M+ performer (Da Vinci Code), 3 $100M+ hits (Casino Royale, Talladega Nights and Click) and about $96M of the ultimate $163.5M gross for Pursuit of Happyness, which landed in December 2006.

As for Will Smith, Seven Pounds is likely to break his historic streak of consecutive $100M+ grossing movies, which stands at 8.

2002 – Men in Black II – $52.1M opening – $190.4M cume
2003 – Bad Boys II – $46.5M opening – $138.6M cume
2004 – I, Robot – $52.1M opening – $144.8M cume
2004 – Shark Tale – $47.6M opening – $160.8M cume
2005 – Hitch – $43.1M opening – $179.4M cume
2006 – The Pursuit of Happyness – $26.5M opening – $163.5M cume
2007 – I Am Legend – $77.2M opening – $256.4M cume
2008 – Hancock – $62.6M opening – $227.9M cume

Critical pans be damned, people love Will Smith, but I am betting that the word-of-mouth on Seven Pounds will not be enough to net the 6.4 multiple that would be required to push it past $100M.

Universal’s Tale of Despereaux coaxed an estimated $3.8M in ticket sales to start the weekend and, with huge matinee business on Saturday and Sunday, the all-time umpteenth animated mouse movie should reach an estimated $15.27M good for third place, setting up for some solid holiday week business.

As expected, The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) has fallen apart, down about 67% for the weekend. Keanu Reeves’ spin on Klaatu could only muster $3.1M on its second Friday, and it will finish the frame with about $10.07M for a 10-day cume of $48.55M.

Rounding out the Top 5 is the aforementioned and surprisingly durable Four Christmases. Vince Vaughn and Reese Witherspoon enjoyed another $3.06M in Friday sales, and it will deliver $9.49M or so more of “holiday cheer” for Warner Bros by Monday morning.

Details of the weekend’s specialty releases and lots of analysis is on tap for Saturday morning.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $6.7M, $1,951 PTA, $6.7M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $5.3M, $1,922 PTA, $5.3M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $3.8M, $1,224 PTA, $3.8M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $3.1M, $871 PTA, $41.57M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $3.06M, $871 PTA, $95.47M cume
6. Twilight (Summit) – $1.55M, $521 PTA, $154.79M cume
7. Bolt (Disney) – $1.31M, $443 PTA, $92.06M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $1.24M, $2,120 PTA, $10.23M cume
9. Milk (Focus) – $804,000, $2,257 PTA, $9.48M cume
10. Australia (Fox) – $763,000, $345 PTA, $40.38M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $18.76M, $5,463 PTA, $18.76M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $15.63M, $5,669 PTA, $15.63M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $15.27M, $4,921 PTA, $15.27M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $10.07M, $2,830 PTA, $48.55M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $9.49M, $2,701 PTA, $101.9M cume
6. Bolt (Disney) -$5.66M, $1,908 PTA, $96.41M cume
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $4.86M, $8,268 PTA, $13.85M cume
8. Twilight (Summit) – $4.83M, $1,616 PTA, $158.06M cume
9. Milk (Focus) – $2.93M, $8,237 PTA, $11.61M cume
10. Australia (Fox) – $2.59M, $1,172 PTA, $42.21M cume