I’m tempted to brag about how close I was with my Tony Award Predictions and make that the biggest story coming out of Sunday’s Tony Award Show, but instead I’ll stay humble.

From the perspective of the Broadway industry (the people and companies that represent the institution of Broadway and who work in the industry tend to think in terms of studios rather than production companies), the Shubert Organization was the big winner.  The Shuberts are the happy landlord to Best Musical winner “Billy Elliot” and Best Play winner “God of Carnage.”  The Shuberts also serve as co-producer of “God of Carnage.”

From an individual show’s perspective, certainly “Billy Elliot” was the big winner with a total of 10 awards.  One major award they didn’t win was the Best Score of a Musical that seemed like a shoe-in for Elton John.  Instead it went to Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey for “Next to Normal” that show also won the Best Actress award for its star, Alice Ripley.

Just as important for a show as the awards it wins, is how the show is presented in the three-hour telecast on CBS.  Even if a show doesn’t reap any prizes, it will still sell tickets if it can creates a buzz.  The “Buzz” factor from Sunday night goes to “Rock of Ages” with a close second for the revival of “Hair.”  “Rock of Ages,” a fable set in the 1980’s on the Sunset Strip and features glam rock favorites from the era not only presented itself as an unabashed valentine to the music, fashions and hair of that era, but it was also the unexpected recipients of enormous press attention:

Sunday night’s Tony Awards gave Bret Michaels and Poison the opportunity to bring an Eighties anthem to an unlikely audience — the Broadway theater world — and celebrate hair-metal musical Rock of Ages in front of millions of people. But as Rock Daily reported yesterday, their performance of “Nothin’ But a Good Time” ended with anything but: a moving set piece smashed Michaels in the face when he tried to scoot below it before Stockard Channing began her part of the opening number. The result of the frontman’s injuries has been revealed this morning: a fractured nose and busted lip requiring three stitches.

Here’s the video:

“Cry Tough,” indeed.

My sources tell me that although “Rock of Ages” won no awards, their daily advance sales (daily wrap) are way up compared to the week before the awards.  Likewise, “Billy Elliot” saw an increase of over 300% in their daily wrap for Monday compared to the Friday before the Tonys.  “God of Carnage” almost tripled their wrap.  On the other end of the spectrum, despite a generally favorable critical response to the musical number from “Next to Normal,” their wrap on Monday had only about a 50% bump and as of Tuesday their numbers have leveled off to their pre-Tonys level.  This might be in part due to the odd acceptance speech from its star, Alice Ripley:

Here’s one more tidbit:  My spies inside Radio City Music Hall tell me that the moment Liza Minelli left the stage after accepting her Tony for Best Special Theatrical Performance, the same category Will Ferrell was up for with his “You’re Welcome America: A Final Evening with George W. Bush,” Mr. Ferrell was up and out of his seat and heading out for the evening.  What a good sport.

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Tonight, 8:00 PM Pacific Time, Telecast on CBS.

It’s often said during Oscar season that there are two sets of predictions:  Who WILL win, and who SHOULD win.  It’s the same with Broadway’s Tony Awards but I often like to add a third prediction:  What would be the best for business.  Believe it or not, often times the Tony Awards seem to take into account the shows that “need” the award for marketing purposes.  Even though one show stands out and seems to be the obvious choice to win the top prize, a surprise occurs and a David beats a Goliath thus ensuring a longer run for David.  I will list a few examples for Best Musical travesties from the past that many might quarrel with in terms of the validity of the show that won, but the commercial outcome of the shows involved can’t be argued.  You have a right to your own opinion, but not to your own facts.

1991: “Miss Saigon” has a multi-million-dollar advance, leads nominations with 11, wins Best Actor and Best Actress.  Best Musical that year?  “The Will Rogers Follies.”  Without the award, “Will Rogers” would have not made it another six months. After winning the prize, it ran for two more years, had a successful tour and might still be running in Branson, MO.  “Saigon” ran for a decade.

Good musical? Sure. But, BEST Musical?

1994: Disney’s “Beauty and the Beast” opens with an enormous advance sale and enormous hype due to Disney’s first foray on Broadway.  They receive 9 nominations and win only one award, for Best Costume Design.  That year’s Best Musical:  Stephen Sondheim’s “Passion.” “Passion” closes six months later and gets the dubious distinction of being the shortest running show ever to be named Best Musical, but without the award, it would have closed in a month.  “Beauty” ran over 5,000 performances.

2004: “Wicked” is a mega-hit and gets 10 nominations.  Best Musical?  “Avenue Q”, the R-rated spoof of “Sesame Street” that continues to run because of the Best Musical Prize.  “Wicked” also runs and continues to break Broadway Gross Sales records despite not winning the Best Musical award.

So, it is often the case that there are two strong contenders for the Best Musical award.  Show A is a very popular show doing great business, but many voters in the industry rationalize that Show A “doesn’t NEED the award.” Meanwhile, Show B is just getting by and with the added benefit of winning Best Musical the show will run another year and launch a national tour.

With that in mind, I humbly submit my predictions of who WILL win, who SHOULD win, and which win would be best for business:

The star-studded cast of "God of Carnage"

Best Play

Dividing the Estate by Horton Foote
God of Carnage by Yasmina Reza
reasons to be pretty by Neil LaBute
33 Variations by Moisés Kaufman

“God of Carnage” WILL win, and SHOULD win, but with its star-studded cast already committed to an extension through November, it doesn’t NEED to win.  If “reasons to be pretty” won it would give it the box office boost to keep running through the holidays or longer.

–

"Billy Elliot, the musical"

Best Musical:

Billy Elliot, The Musical
Next to Normal
Rock of Ages
Shrek the Musical

“Billy Elliot” is this year’s behemoth. It is HUGELY popular and the clear favorite. Not only is it doing great business and is wildly entertaining, but it has a huge “X factor” going for it that always helps a show win a Tony Award: It has gay themes. Any musical that focuses on gay issues and has a storyline about characters who strive for acceptance in a stereotypical conservative community always wins … always.  So, it WILL win, and probably SHOULD win (although my heart belongs to Alice Ripley and “Next to Normal”). But, little Billy doesn’t NEED to win the award for sales. If you want to judge this purely on the most money that stands to be made on winning this award, put your money on the big green guy. It would be a HUGE upset, but so was “Avenue Q” over “Wicked.” Maybe this time the green make-up lobby will win out!

–

"Joe Turner's Come and Gone"

Best Revival of a Play:

Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Mary Stuart
The Norman Conquests
Waiting for Godot

August Wilson died a few years ago… They named a theatre after him…  President Obama just went on a very expensive date to see it… “Joe Turner” WILL win. “Mary Stuart” SHOULD win, it is theatre at its finest. And seeing as how “Godot” is doing great business, “Joe” will win and get a great turnaround in sales.

–

The Jets in "West Side Story"

Best Revival of a Musical:

Guys and Dolls
Hair
Pal Joey
West Side Story

“Hair” WILL win for a lot of reasons. Mostly because it is positioned perfectly for the Tony voters’ sensibilities. They all LIVED the “Hair” life in one way or another and pretend to still be edgy Bohemians trying to shock mainstream America. That’s why they loved “Rent” so much… “Rent” was just “Hair” with HIV. “West Side Story” SHOULD win because.. well… IT’S “WEST SIDE STORY”!!!! Best win for business: “Guys and Dolls.”

–

Will Ferrell in "You're Welcome America: A Final Night With George W. Bush"

Tony Award for Best Special Theatrical Event:

Liza’s at The Palace…!
Slava’s Snowshow
Soul of Shaolin
You’re Welcome America – A Final Night with George W. Bush

Liza’s triumphant turn at the Palace (the same house which hosted her mother’s legendary concerts in 1968) SHOULD be acknowledged and awarded, but I doubt the voters can resist the opportunity to reward Will Ferrell for his hugely successful Bush-bash. Actually, giving Ferrell the Tony would be the best for business and sales, as well, because it would encourage other Hollywood actors in his genre to come to Broadway.

Note: The individual acting awards do not often fall under the “Best for Business” criteria, so I’ll give you a straight will/should in each:

–

Geoffrey Rush in "Exit the King"

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play:

Jeff Daniels – God of Carnage
Raul Esparza – Speed-the-Plow
James Gandolfini – God of Carnage
Geoffrey Rush – Exit the King
Thomas Sadoski – Reasons to Be Pretty

Will win: Geoffrey Rush
Should win: Geoffrey Rush

–

The stars of "Mary Stuart"

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play:

Hope Davis- God of Carnage
Jane Fonda – 33 Variations
Marcia Gay Harden – God of Carnage
Janet McTeer – Mary Stuart
Harriet Walter – Mary Stuart

Will win: Marcia Gay Harden (and let’s hope she makes some weird, 9/11 remark in the speech)
Should win: Janet McTeer

–

Brian d'Arcy James as Shrek

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical:

David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, and Kiril Kulish – Billy Elliot, The Musical
Gavin Creel – Hair
Brian d’Arcy James – Shrek The Musical
Constantine Maroulis – Rock of Ages
J. Robert Spencer – Next to Normal

Will win: David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, and Kiril Kulish (three different boys split time each week playing the title role in “Billy Elliot”)
Should win: Brian d’Arcy James

–

Alice Ripley in "Next to Normal"

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical:

Stockard Channing – Pal Joey
Sutton Foster – Shrek The Musical
Allison Janney – 9 to 5: The Musical
Alice Ripley – Next to Normal
Josefina Scaglione – West Side Story

Who will win: Alice Ripley
Who should win: Alice Ripley

Last prediction: Gay Marriage will be the most joked about, pontificated about, and ranted about issue on the stage. You’re going to hear about it from the host, Neil Patrick Harris, all the way down to the winner of the most obscure technical award. Get ready for being called a bigot and a hater if you think marriage means one man and one woman.

Buckle-up and enjoy the evening. It should be a pretty entertaining show. I’ll switch over as soon as the Laker game is over. (I’m kidding! That’s why God invented picture-in-picture)

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The result is a well-reviewed (56% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) action film that will help to satisfy blockbuster-hungry audiences waiting for Warner Bros’ Watchmen (due March 6). Taken has scored big on its opening weekend. After grabbing an estimated $9.4M, the movie surged on Saturday to $11.62M (up almost 24% from opening day) and, despite today’s Super Bowl, the film could reach $24.62M according to studio estimates. That will be more than enough to win the Super Bowl 3-day, and positive word-of-mouth could get this one into the $70M-$75M range domestic.

Prolific French filmmaker Luc Besson

Taken re-teams French action maestro Besson with director Morel, who previously worked together on the brilliant District B13 ($411K opening – $1.2M in the US – $6.9M in France). For the prolific Besson, this movie marks the all-time best US opening for one of his films.

ALL-TIME BEST DOMESTIC OPENINGS FOR LUC BESSON FILMS
- as producer, writer and/or director -
1. Taken (producer/writer) – $24.62M opening (projected)
2. The Fifth Element (writer/director) – $17M opening – $63.8M domestic
3. Transporter 2 (producer/writer) – $16.5M opening – $43M domestic
4. Kiss of the Dragon (producer/writer) – $13.3M opening – $36.8M domestic
5. Transporter 3 (producer/writer) – $12M opening – $31.7M domestic
6. The Transporter (producer/writer) – $9.1M opening – $25.2M domestic
7. Point of No Return (writer) – $7.1M opening – $30M domestic
8. The Messenger: The Story of Joan of Arc (producer/writer/director) – $6.3M opening – $14.2M domestic
9. The Professional (producer/writer/director) – $5.3M opening – $19.5M domestic
10. Arthur & the Invisibles (producer/writer/director) – $4.3M opening – $15.1M domestic

Besson has a tremendous international following, and Taken was already a hit before it ever opened in the US. The movie has already been released in many overseas territories, generating $68.8M in 2008. That includes $11.2M in the UK and $9.4M in France. With international numbers like that, it’s not a huge surprise that the picture is working so well in the states.

The irrepressible Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) is headed for a #2 finish for the weekend. The Adam Sandler-produced comedy sold another $4.2M in tickets on its third Friday, and Kevin James has ridden that dopey Segway to another strong 3-day of about $14M. By Monday morning, PB:MC will have banked a stellar $83M.

Poster for the 1998 Japanese film Ringu

In 1998, Hollywood discovered a Japanese film called Ringu, and they have been remaking Asian horror films ever since. Director Gore Verbinski turned the get-under-your-skin creepy Ringu into an American version called, simply, The Ring, and that 2002 movie starring Naomi Watts grossed a spectacular $129M.

The latest Asian horror adaptation is The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount), based on the 2003 South Korean thriller Janghwa, Hongryeon (released in the US as A Tale of Two Sisters). The movie was a sensation in Korea where it remains the all-time highest-grossing horror film, and now Elizabeth Banks (W.) and David Strathairn (Good Night and Good Luck) headline the American version. After grabbing a decent $4.3M to start the weekend, The Uninvited got a 9% Saturday bump, and it will likely finish the weekend in third-place with $10.51M.

That is slightly disappointing given the performance of some other recent Asian horror remakes. (Note these are all based on Japanese films with The Uninvited being the first South Korean adaptation.)

2002 – The Ring – $15M opening – $129.1M cume
2004 – The Grudge – $39.1M opening – $110.3M cume
2005 – The Ring Two – $35M opening – $76.2M cume
2005 – Dark Water – $9.9M opening – $25.4M cume
2006 – The Grudge 2 – $20.8M opening – $39.1M cume
2006 – Pulse – $8.2M opening – $20.2M cume
2008 – One Missed Call – $12.5M opening – $26.9M cume
2008 – The Eye – $12.4M opening – $31.4M cume
2009 – The Uninvited – $10.51M opening (projected)

In final studio estimates, Hotel for Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) has managed a surprise fourth-place finish with $8.7M for a new cume of $48.2M. Meanwhile, the Super Bowl has pushed Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (Warner Bros) to #5 with $8.6M. Walt Kowalski has now growled his way to an amazing $110.5M cume.

Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) has received a nice boost from and its 10 Oscar nominations, adding another $7.58M. This micro-budgeted movie ($14M) which almost went straight to video when Warner bros didn’t quite know what to do wth it has grossed a staggering $67M. Also this weekend, director Danny Boyle has won the ultimate Oscar bellweather, the DGA award, and that may seal the deal for Best Picture and Best Director at the upcoming Academy Awards.

The other new wide release is the horribly-reviewed New In Town (Lionsgate), starring Academy Award winner Renee Zellweger. The romantic comedy that makes sport of small town America opened soft, but it could have been worse. The movie coaxed about $2.4M on Friday (#7 for the day), and Lionsgate says the movie will finish the weekend with $6.75M, enough for eighth place. That number marks only the eighth-best opening of Zellweger’s career.

ALL-TIME BEST RENEE ZELLWEGER OPENINGS
- non-animated –
1. Me, Myself & Irene – $24.2M opening
2, Cinderella Man – $18.3M opening
3. Jerry Maguire – $17M opening
4. Cold Mountain – $14.5M opening
5. Leatherheads – $12.6M opening
6. Bridget Jones’s Diary – $10.7M opening
7. Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason – $8.6M opening
8. The Bachelor – $7.4M opening
9. Nurse Betty – $7.1M opening
10. New In Town -$6.75M opening (projected)

There is not much of an Oscar bounce for the current crop of Best Picture nominees. Stephen Daldry’s The Reader (Weinstein) and Milk (Focus) starring Sean Penn are the last two of the big five to go wide, and neither film has scored big.

David Kross and Kate Winslet in The Reader

The Reader, which has Academy Award nominations for Best Picture, Best Actress: Kate Winslet, Best Director: Daldry, Best Adapted Screenplay: David Hare and Best Cinematography, expanded to 1,002 locations on Friday and could only muster $700,000. That should project to about $2.37M or so for the 3-day and a new cume of $12.64M.

Meanwhile, the Gus Van Sant-directed Milk, which some pundits believe may be peaking with Academy voters at just the right time, will not be a box office juggernaut. Despite 8 Oscar nominations, Milk managed only a $471 Per Theatre Average on Friday on 882 screens. The first wide weekend for the Harvey Milk biopic will likely yield only $1.41M for a new domestic cume of $23.41M.

Golden Globe winner Sean Penn as slain gay rights leader Harvey Milk

In all, the five Best Picture nominees, now all in wide release, have combined for less than $17M for the weekend. By Monday, the five movies contending for Hollywood’s biggest prize have a combined total domestic gross of just $234M. I am projecting that Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Reader will finish with a total of about $285M in US ticket sales, which would be the second-worst total of the last 15 years.

For example last year, the five Best Picture nominees grossed a combined $357M, so the 2009 crop will be down a full 20% from 2008. Snubbing movies like The Dark Knight and Gran Torino, Academy voters have narrowed the field to what amounts to a very expensive arthouse movie (Benjamin Button), a surprise crowd-pleaser (Slumdog Millionaire) and three niche art titles with very specific audiences (Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Reader). When the ratings for the Oscar telecast are dismal, the Academy will have its own voters to blame.

The worst combined gross of the five Best Picture nominees in the last 15 years was in 2005 when Crash, Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Good Night & Good Luck and Munich generated $245M at the box office. That resulted in the all-time third-worst television rating for the Academy Awards broadcast.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Taken (Fox) – $9.4M, $2,953 PTA, $9.4M cume
2. NEW – The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $4.3M, $1,834 PTA, $4.3M cume
3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $4.2M, $1,310 PTA, $73.57M cume
4. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $2.6M, $862 PTA, $104.54M cume
5. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) – $2.55M, $867 PTA, $28.13M cume
6. NEW – New in Town (Lionsgate) – $2.4M, $1,236 PTA, $2.4M cume
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.3M, $1,630 PTA, $61.86M cume
8. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2M, $633 PTA, $41.52M cume
9. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) – $1.5M, $1,067 PTA, $41.84M cume
10. Bride Wars (Fox) – $1.25M, $630 PTA, $51.61M cume
11. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $1.1M, $517 PTA, $114.02M cume
12. Inkheart (Warner Bros) – $975,000, $367 PTA, $10.06M cume
13. Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $850,000, $789 PTA, $14.22M
14. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $775,000, $466 PTA, $21.07M cume
15. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $730,000, $1,011 PTA, $11.46M cume
16. The Reader (Weinstein) – $700,000, $699 PTA, $10.97M cume
17. Notorious (Fox Searchlight) – $590,000, $546 PTA, $33.9M cume
18. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $425,000, $385 PTA, $13.33M cume
19. Milk (Focus Features) – $415,000, $471 PTA, $22.39M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Taken (Fox) – $24.62M, $7,736 PTA, $24.62M cume
2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $14M, $4,367 PTA, $83.37M cume
3. NEW – The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $10.51M, $4,485 PTA, $10.51M cume
4. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.7M, $3,160 PTA, $48.22M cume
5. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $8.6M, $2,852 PTA, $110.54M cume
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $7.68M, $4,703 PTA, $67.24M cume
7. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) – $7.2M, $2,447 PTA, $32.78M cume
8. NEW – New in Town (Lionsgate) – $6.75M, $3,478 PTA, $6.75M cume
9. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) – $4.26M, $3,030 PTA, $44.6M cume
10. Inkheart (Warner Bros) – $3.7M, $1,394 PTA, $12.79M cume
11. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $3.61M, $1,698 PTA, $116.54M cume
12. Bride Wars (Fox) – $3.57M, $1,798 PTA, $53.93M cume
13. Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.65M, $2,469 PTA, $16.03M
14. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $2.53M, $1,524 PTA, $22.83M cume
15. The Reader (Weinstein) – $2.37M, $2,369 PTA, $12.64M cume
16. The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $2.35M, $3,255 PTA, $13.08M cume
17. Notorious (Fox Searchlight) – $1.7M, $1,574 PTA, $35M cume
18. Milk (Focus) – $1.41M, $1,603 PTA, $23.41M cume
19. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $1.39M, $1,265 PTA, $14.31M cume