These are my Oscar predictions for Sunday’s ceremony. I don’t cover all the categories, because it would be disingenuous of me to predict the winner of Best Animated Short Film. 

Best Picture:

The early thunder of “The Social Network,” which took most of the earlier award shows by storm, has given way to a resurgence by “The King’s Speech,” now considered the front-runner. Both excellent films, remarkably differing in style and tone: one a tried-and-true drama about British royalty, the other a slick exploration of the contemporary price of genius and success. Although “The Social Network” is easily the better film and certainly the one that will be re-watched endlessly over the years, “The King’s Speech” shows all the signs of claiming the prize. Still, an upset is possible, but not by any of the other eight nominees, none of which stand a snowball’s chance in hell. 

Prediction: “The King’s Speech” 

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Best Director:

It’s certainly true that Best Picture does not equal Best Director, and Academy voters know this better than anyone. Though “The King’s Speech” was finely directed by Tom Hooper, Academy voters are likely to respect and recognize David Fincher’s phenomenal work on “The Social Network,” which make what could be a boring drama about computer geeks into a thrilling morality play. 

Prediction: David Fincher, “The Social Network” 

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Best Actor:

The lock of the night: Colin Firth, for his portrayal of a humiliated and reluctant king struggling mightily to overcome a crippling stutter. Firth, a highly-respected veteran of the awards scene, ensures that this will be perhaps the only suspense free category of the night, Best Animated Feature Film notwithstanding. In other years, I’d say that James Franco’s turn as an imperiled hiker in “127 Hours” and Jeff Bridges’ crusty Rooster Cogburn in “True Grit” would be serious contenders, but this year, Firth will be crowned king. 

Prediction: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech” 

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Best Actress:

Natalie Portman’s psychotic ballerina from “Black Swan” hits a veritable Oscar checklist: physical labor, precarious mental condition, film with a sterling pedigree. That said, some have predicted an Annette Bening upset for her matriarchal lesbian physician in “The Kids Are All Right.” I don’t see it; just as Portman’s role hits a lot of the notes Oscar voters like, Bening’s is subdued, and not even written or played in a way that consistently reminds viewers of the alternative-lifestyle vibe that the film is sold on.

Prediction: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan” 

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Best Supporting Actor:

Here’s one of the night’s closest races. Geoffrey Rush is pitch-perfect as the king’s speech therapist, a balance of confidence and humility, working with the world’s highest profile speech therapy client, caught between the British regard for class and his need to teach the proper way. On the other side of the coin is Christian Bale, giving a raw, edgy turn as a crack-addicted ex-boxer in “The Fighter.” Whereas Rush demonstrates uncanny measure, Bale feels spontaneous, looking well-lived in with his gaunt frame and twitch mannerisms. It’s incredible that a handsome, dashing actor readily recognizable as Batman can disappear so completely, never reminding us who we’re looking at. It’s a close call, but Rush already has a statue, and it’s looking to be Bale’s turn. 

Prediction: Christian Bale, “The Fighter” 

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Best Supporting Actress:

Melissa Leo, a splendid character actress with a wide range of tricks, seemed to be the lock. But two factors are working against her. The first is that her “The Fighter” costar Amy Adams shares a nomination, which threatens to siphon off votes from voters determined to honor “The Fighter” by awarding it a supporting win. The second is the public relations beating she took after some self-financed “For Your Consideration” ads opened her up to a fair amount of scorn and ridicule from her peers. There’s a reasonable chance for an upset in the form of Hailee Steinfeld, the 14-year-old actress who gave the best performance in a film with the unimpeachable Jeff Bridges giving it his all. That said, Leo’s still the horse to place your bets on. 

Prediction: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter” 

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Best Writing – Original Screenplay

Since “The King’s Speech” writer David Seidler certainly consulted a number of texts when writing his script, should this even count as “original”? A contest between “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network” is likely more interesting on a writing level than a picture one, but never mind. The front runner for Best Picture should have no trouble picking up the writing prize, beating out the vastly more original “Inception,” among others. 

Prediction: David Seidler, “The King’s Speech” 

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Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay

Readers of BH might be aware that my opinion of Aaron Sorkin the man, the one who proudly admits to getting a cruel kick out of hunting accidents, isn’t particularly high. That said, one needs to grade the work before the artist, and his script for “The Social Network” is a shining example of how to turn material with a high potential for dullness into great drama. Sorkin’s apparent liberties with objective facts don’t seemed to have fazed any voters, not much of a surprise considering that it’s an industry that specializes in warping reality for any number of purposes. 

Prediction: Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network” 

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Best Cinematography

Word on the street is that Roger Deakins, the brilliant lensman best known for shooting Coen Brothers’ films, will find that ninth time’s the charm for his lovely, haunting work on “True Grit.” But were I an Academy member, I might prefer Wally Pfister’s work on “Inception,” which accomplished the Herculean task of making the brilliant Christopher Nolan’s dreamy vision into something tangible. 

Prediction: Roger Deakins, “True Grit” 

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Best Animated Feature Film:

You know how I said that Best Actor was the only suspense free category of the night, Best Animated Feature notwithstanding? Here, “Toy Story 3” is the sole picture of the three nominees to also receive a Best Picture nomination. The math does itself. 

Prediction: “Toy Story 3” 

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And here, just for kicks, are my predictions for most other categories, short a few I can’t legitimate knowledge of. 

Best Film Editing:
Prediction:“The Social Network”

Best Visual Effects:
Prediction: “Inception”

Best Art Direction:
Prediction: “Alice in Wonderland”

Best Original Score:
Prediction: “The Social Network”

Best Original Song:
Prediction: Randy Newman, “Toy Story 3”

Best Sound Editing:
Prediction: “Inception”

Best Sound Mixing:
Prediction: “Inception”

Best Makeup:
Prediction: “The Wolfman”

Best Costume Design:
Prediction: “Alice in Wonderland”

Best Documentary – Feature
Prediction: “Inside Job”

Best Foreign Language Film
Prediction: “Biutiful”

The Academy Awards show has a fine tradition of pampered celebrities popping off with something stupid when they hit the stage.  It must be something about TV cameras and the opportunity to make damn fools of themselves before tens of millions of people around the world that the Hollywoodoids find irresistible.  Notice how you never hear any fallout from the “technical awards” ceremony?  You know, the non televised ceremony recognizing the boring technological stuff that actually makes movies possible that is usually held at the Beverly Hills Elks Lodge with hosts Steve Guttenberg, Charo and/or one of the lesser Sweathogs.

Some of the past magic moments are legendary.  Remember back in 1993, when Tim Robbins and his then-gal pal, tranny vomit insanity enthusiast Susan Sarandon, harangued the crowd about the detention of Haitian refugees?  Of course, right after that these stars led the way by opening up the grounds of their mansion to these huddled Haitian masses.

Roberto Benigni engaged in memorably tiresome antics after winning “Best Foreign Language Film of 1997” for the Worst Film of All Time, the insanely appalling Life Is Beautiful.  Life has certainly aged well, and Benigni’s shtick has only gotten fresher, contributing to the runaway freight train of success that his career has become since then.

Another highlight was the 1973 appearance of Indian activist Sacheen Littlefeather to accept Marlon Brando’s Oscar for The Godfather.  Of course, after that powerful indictment of American society, things began to change.  Her earnest speech was the inspiration behind the movement to allow Native Americans to reject reservation socialism, to fully embrace the free market model, and to find prosperity delivering quality entertainment, gaming and vacation opportunities to their fellow Americans.  Or so I’ve heard.  Little known fact:  She convinced Brando to let her accept the award by offering him a muffin.

Occasionally the real people who actually make movies happen – the teamsters, the grips, and the other hardscrabble folks behind the scenes – will make their presence known during a particularly stupid speech.  For example, back in 2003, Michael Moore decided to use his win to spout off as America headed to war in Iraq.  Running down our country in front of a teamster?  Bad, bad idea.   The thunderous booing of these all-American Joes and Janes humiliated the clown who fancies himself their voice – not that he’d be caught dead within a dozen miles of blue collar Americans.  It also led to Steve Martin’s joke about Big Mikey being helped into his limo’s trunk – a zinger on a couple levels.  Moore was lucky to get out of there without an Oscar suppository.

So who is going to spout off this year?  Oh, the competition is fierce.

Let’s look at the Best Picture nominees.  There’s what – 37 of them this year?  So many opportunities to say something dumb.  

The Blind Side and Up are positive pictures with important messages of hope, so we don’t need to bother with thinking about what happens if they win because they won’t.  A Serious Man takes religion kind of seriously; count that out too.

The same with District 9, though if it does sneak through – remember 3-6 Mafia – then expect the producers to repeat, in an indecipherable Boer accent, its profound message that apartheid of intergalactic crustaceans is very, very bad.

Up In The Air is a movie about (among other things) the trauma of losing your livelihood.  Don’t hold your breath for an unflattering reference to the current Administration’s campaign of employment extermination.  At best, watch for an “It’s still all Bush’s fault!” sideswipe if George Clooney takes Best Actor.

The same is true of the urban nightmare Precious.  As we know, the ghetto was a fairytale wonderland before the BusHitler contingent came in and ruined it.

A win for An Education, a tale of a teenage girl having sex with an adult, is the perfect moment for a shout-out of solidarity with Roman Polanski – who, after all, is the real victim.   

If Inglorious Basterds wins, look for lots of log-rolling about how brave the Academy was to choose it, with its graphic violence, interminable stretches of over-praised dialogue and coherence-optional story line.  The courageous ballot-casters of Hollywood are the real heroes.  And heaven forbid chatty Quentin Tarantino win as Best Director.  First, he’s an overpraised hack.  Second, his speech will take 20 minutes out of our lives that we’ll never get back.

You’ll hear plenty about how the producers “support” our soldiers if The Hurt Locker pulls off Best Picture.  It would be nice to hear some support for servicemembers not just as tragic victims but for their performance in winning the war they found (and still find) important enough to volunteer to go off and risk their lives fighting.  In the off chance that someone, somehow should utter the word “victory,” watch the entire proceedings come to a flying stop.

If Kathryn Bigelow becomes the first woman to win Best Director, expect lots of talk of glass ceilings, breaking barriers and “the pioneers who came before me.”  That’s all okay – she really is a trailblazer, you know, kind of like Sarah Palin.  Nice to see Hollywood finally catching up with the Republican Party on gender diversity.

Now, if Jeremy Renner wins Best Actor for The Hurt Locker, I expect nothing but class.  This is a guy who seems to have worked hard, perfected his craft, and finally caught a break.  In interviews he seems not entitled but – gasp! – grateful, and he always gives credit to others like Anthony Mackie, his co-star who was freakin’ robbed of a Best Supporting Actor nomination.

Similarly, if Sandra Bullock wins for her role as a decent human being – for many other actors, this is a huge stretch – I expect a classy speech.  The same is true about Meryl Streep and the rest of the Best Actress contenders.  However, in the Best Supporting Actor category, we might have some awesome opportunities for inanity. 

Matt Damon is nominated and he’s sure to pick up Tim Robbins’ Torch O’ Stupidity and carry it aloft.  There’s health care reform, climate change and, of course, supporting the troops but not the war – it’s a cornucopia of topics upon which he can offer the full benefit of his inexperience.

Woody Harrelson plays a soldier, so should he win, look for some “We support the soldiers but not the war” nonsense – assuming he moderates his pre-ceremony bong hit intake enough to find the stage.

And then there’s Avatar, the bête noir of Big Hollywood.  Will we see James Cameron issue a humble statement of regret that its giddy depiction of American soldiers being slaughtered was misconstrued?  Doubtful, since it hasn’t been misconstrued.  Cameron’s petty god complex has been in full effect for a couple of decades now, so don’t look for humility.  More likely, if the King of the World wins we’ll see shrill crowing about his come-from-behind triumph over the unnamed “critics” who refuse to suspend their disbelief and love of country and embrace the magic that is his masterpiece, Space Fahrenheit-Pocahontas 9/11.  

And, no matter what, to the extent it comes up, he’ll “support” the troops.  They always support the troops.  Just not anything the troops actually do.

His speech is so entertaining that as I was hosting an Oscar Eve radio special on 790 KABC in Los Angeles last night, every guest that had been at the Spirits could talk about nothing else, including Best Supporting Actress nominee Taraji P. Henson from Benjamin Button, E!’s Ben Lyons, Associated Press film critic Christy Lemire, James Marsh, the writer/director of Man On Wire (favored to win Best Documentary Feature tonight) and Emmy winning actor Bryan Cranston from Breaking Bad (set to return on AMC on March 8).

This acceptance speech comes with a strong R rating, so if you are easily offended, be forewarned.

Slumdog Millionaire is about to win the Hollywood's Grand Prize

The “Battle Royale” of the night is Mickey Rouke from The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) vs. Sean Penn in Milk (Focus) in the Best Actor category. There have been two ties in major categories in Academy Award history. The first was in 1932 when Frederic March in Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde shared Best Actor with Wallace Beery for The Champ. (March had one more vote, but in that era, any finish within 3 votes was rules a tie.) Then in 1968, Katherine Hepburn for The Lion In Winter and Barbara Streisand for Funny Girl tied for Best Actress. If there was any justice, Rourke and Penn would share the award. In any other year, either of them would be a lock. Forced to make a pick, I’m going with Rourke.

Does Streep's upset of Winslet at the SAG Awards set the stage for Meryl's third Oscar win?

Kate Winslet is on the cover of Time Magazine, and she has picked up a wheelbarrow full of hardware during this awards cycle, but a fair number of voters got their fill of Kate when she pulled off the double-win at the Golden Globes. My upset special is Meryl Streep for Doubt (Miramax). This is her 15th career nomination, and she has not won an Academy Award in 25 years (Sophie’s Choice in 1982). That is too long for the most-revered actress in history to go without getting one of those golden guys. Streep won the SAG Award for Lead Actress, and I think she has a real shot here. (It would be a huge upset.)

Finally if my predix hold up, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) would win only 2 Oscars – Best Visual Effects and Best Makeup – despite 13 nominations. That would be the fewest wins for any movie with 13 or more nominations. In fact, 2 wins would be among the poorest showings ever for a movie with 11 nominations or more.

Tied for the biggest shutout in Oscar history; Benjamin Button could win for Makeup and Visual Effects

FEWEST OSCAR WINS FOR MOVIES WITH 11 NOMINATIONS OR MORE
1. The Color Purple – 0 wins (11 nominations)
2. The Turning Point – 0 wins (11 nominations)
3. Chinatown – 1 win (11 nominations)
4. Johnny Belinda – 1 win (12 nominations)
5. Becket – 1 win (12 nominations)
6. Mr. Smith Goes to Washington – 1 win (11 nominations)
7. Pride of the Yankees – 1 win (11 nominations)
8. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 2 wins (13 nominations) – predicted
9. Rebecca – 2 wins (11 nominations)
10. Sergeant York – 2 wins (11 nominations)
11. A Passage To India – 2 wins (11 nominations)
12. Judgement at Nuremberg – 2 wins (11 nominations)

After weeks of obsessive study, relentless debate and intense soul-searching, here are my final Oscar predictions for all 24 categories.

BEST PICTURE
My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Milk

BEST ACTOR
My Pick – Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Consensus Pick – Sean Penn, Milk or Rourke
Dark Horse – None

BEST ACTRESS
My Pick – Meryl Streep, Doubt
Consensus Pick – Kate Winslet, The Reader
Dark Horse – Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My Pick – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Consensus Pick – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dark Horse – None

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My Pick – Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Consensus Pick – Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dark Horse – Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

BEST DIRECTOR
My Pick – Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Milk screenwriter Justin Lance Black

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
My Pick – Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Consensus Pick – Andrew Stanton, WALL-E
Dark Horse – Martin McDonagh, In Bruges

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
My Pick – Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – David Hare, The Reader

BEST EDITING
My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Frost/Nixon

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
My Pick – Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight

BEST ART DIRECTION
My Pick – The Dark Knight
Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse – The Duchess

BEST SOUND MIXING
My Pick – The Dark Knight
Consensus Pick – The Dark Knight
Dark Horse – Slumdog Millionaire

BEST SOUND EDITING
My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – The Dark Knight

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
My Pick – The Duchess
Consensus Pick – The Duchess
Dark Horse – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
My Pick – A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – A. R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
My Pick – Waltz with Bashir
Consensus Pick – Waltz with Bashir
Dark Horse – The Class

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
My Pick – Man on Wire
Consensus Pick – Man On Wire
Dark Horse – Trouble the Water

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
My Pick – WALL-E
Consensus Pick – WALL-E
Dark Horse – Kung Fu Panda

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
My Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse – The Dark Knight

BEST MAKEUP
My Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse – The Dark Knight

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
My Pick – Jaiho from Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Jaiho from Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Peter Gabriel, Down to Earth from WALL-E

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
My Pick – Toyland (Spielzeugland)
Consensus Pick – Auf der Strecke
Dark Horse – The Pig

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
My Pick – Presto
Consensus Pick – La Maison en Petits Cubes
Dark Horse – This Way Up

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
My Pick – The Conscience of Nhem En
Consensus Pick – The Witness
Dark Horse – The Final Inch

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

But, in the world of gambling, you always want to look for value. What are the films and performances with longer odds that would be worth a wager on Sunday? My purpose here is to establish a betting line for each of the six major categories, and then find the value bet in each category.

Question: Who will win Best Picture? Answer: Still, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

BEST PICTURE
Slumdog Millionaire – 1/7
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 6/1
Milk – 20/1
Frost/Nixon – 30/1
The Reader – 50/1

VALUE: I believe that in order to win an Academy Award, passion is required. Slumdog Millionaire has a passionate zeal among its supporters that will make it virtually unbeatable. Although I have made The Curious Case of Benjamin Button the second choice here, I give it very little chance of winning. It has major studio backing (Paramount), and it is certainly well-respected, but it is more admired than loved. So, for me the betting value is in Milk. Aside from Slumdog, it is the movie with the largest bloc of zealous fans. Gay and gay-friendly Academy members love the movie, and in the shadow of the passage of Proposition 8 in California, Milk is worth a $2 bet at the window.

Sean Penn's portrayal of Harvey Milk is now a decided underdog to Mickey Rourke

BEST ACTOR
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler – 1/2
Sean Penn, Milk – 3/2
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon – 10/1
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 25/1
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor – 35/1

VALUE: After colorful, rambling, verging on obscene acceptance speeches at both the Golden Globes and the BAFTA Awards, Mickey Rourke is the true favorite for Best Actor. Rourke has also campaigned hard, paying the paying the price for that Golden Globe win by schmoozing each and every one of those 95 Hollywood Foreign Press members. Penn just doesn’t play that awards campaign game at all, but actors love him. The only real betting value here is Penn, who still has a chance of winning his second Oscar.

It has been 25 years since Mery Streep won an Oscar

BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, The Reader – 1/2
Meryl Streep, Doubt – 5/2
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married – 4/1
Angelina Jolie, Changeling – 25/1
Melissa Leo, Frozen River – 35/1

VALUE: It is Kate Winslet’s year. Just ask anybody. She has two outstanding awards-caliber performances in The Reader and Revolutionary Road. If rules would have allowed, she might have been nominated twice in the Best Actress category. She’s 0-fer-5 lifetime at the Academy Awards and deserves to win, but she can be beaten. Jolie and Leo have no shot. Hathaway is the 3rd choice in the field, and a win is not inconceivable, but Streep is the value bet. The undisputed greatest living actress has not won an Oscar in 25 years, despite the fact that this is her eleventh nomination since winning for Sophie’s Choice in 1983.

Ledger is a lock

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heather Ledger, The Dark Knight – 1/100
Josh Brolin, Milk – 20/1
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder – 25/1
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt – 30/1
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road – 50/1

VALUE: None. There is no value in this category. Heath Ledger will win Best Supporting Actor posthumously. If you are unfamiliar with how odds work, 1/100 means that you would have to bet $100 to win just $1, and even then, it would be tough to get anybody to take your wager.

Marisa Tomei's "stripper with a heart of gold" in THE WRESTLER may earn her a second Oscar

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona – 1/2
Viola Davis, Doubt – 3/1
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler – 5/1
Amy Adams, Doubt – 12/1
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 15/1

VALUE: This is, by far, the most competitive of the major awards. The longest shot in the field, Taraji P. Henson from Ben Button, is only a 15-1 longshot. Woody Allen has a knack for helping actresses win in this category (ask Dianne Wiest , who scored for both Hannah and Her Sisters and Bullets Over Broadway). That points to a win for Penelope Cruz, who was raw and sexy as Maria Elena in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Davis can certainly win for her fleeting-but-powerful turn in Doubt, but my value bet is Marisa Tomei. Her first win, for My Cousin Vinny, was viewed by many as a fluke. In fact, there is an urban legend that she really didn’t win. The story goes that Jack Palance, who presented that year, read the wrong name (the legend claims that Vanessa Redgrave was the actual winner for Howard’s End). In reality, there is no doubt that Tomei is an Oscar winning actress, who gives her career-best performance in The Wrestler.

The uncompromising David Fincher

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire – 1/7
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 6/1
Gus Van Sant, Milk – 20/1
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon – 25/1
Stephen Daldry, The Reader – 35/1

VALUE: Nobody is going to beat Danny Boyle, but if I was looking for a strong value bet, I would wager on Fincher. He is a visionary with some amazing movies on his resume, including Se7en, Fight Club and Zodiac. He has worked with countless actors and industry types, and his uncompromising nature makes him tough to like, but easy to respect. If there were an upset in this category, Fincher is the only guy who could pull it off.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.