The Academy Awards have been a big deal to me for years. I throw a party replete with tons of booze and food and those Oscar pools we hear so much about. This has little to do with the nominees, which I think rarely do a good job of reflecting what actually deserves to win. Instead, it’s that the Oscars are like the Super Bowl for cinephiles, a Sunday-set event that one can throw a party to and revel in love of the medium. 

These are my Oscar predictions for Sunday’s ceremony. I don’t cover all the categories, because it would be disingenuous of me to predict the winner of Best Animated Short Film. 

Best Picture:

The early thunder of “The Social Network,” which took most of the earlier award shows by storm, has given way to a resurgence by “The King’s Speech,” now considered the front-runner. Both excellent films, remarkably differing in style and tone: one a tried-and-true drama about British royalty, the other a slick exploration of the contemporary price of genius and success. Although “The Social Network” is easily the better film and certainly the one that will be re-watched endlessly over the years, “The King’s Speech” shows all the signs of claiming the prize. Still, an upset is possible, but not by any of the other eight nominees, none of which stand a snowball’s chance in hell. 

Prediction: “The King’s Speech” 

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The real fun of the Oscars isn’t the cut-throat competition for the little gold naked man but guessing who will make the biggest idiot of himself. 

The Academy Awards show has a fine tradition of pampered celebrities popping off with something stupid when they hit the stage.  It must be something about TV cameras and the opportunity to make damn fools of themselves before tens of millions of people around the world that the Hollywoodoids find irresistible.  Notice how you never hear any fallout from the “technical awards” ceremony?  You know, the non televised ceremony recognizing the boring technological stuff that actually makes movies possible that is usually held at the Beverly Hills Elks Lodge with hosts Steve Guttenberg, Charo and/or one of the lesser Sweathogs.

Some of the past magic moments are legendary.  Remember back in 1993, when Tim Robbins and his then-gal pal, tranny vomit insanity enthusiast Susan Sarandon, harangued the crowd about the detention of Haitian refugees?  Of course, right after that these stars led the way by opening up the grounds of their mansion to these huddled Haitian masses.

Roberto Benigni engaged in memorably tiresome antics after winning “Best Foreign Language Film of 1997” for the Worst Film of All Time, the insanely appalling Life Is Beautiful.  Life has certainly aged well, and Benigni’s shtick has only gotten fresher, contributing to the runaway freight train of success that his career has become since then. (more…)

Mickey Rourke won the Independent Spirit Award last night in Santa Monica, possibly setting the stage for a memorable Oscar moment tonight. Randy “The Ram” Robinson, the character that Rourke plays in Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) is a blazing, raw, “broken down piece of meat” of a professional wrestler, and it is a once in a lifetime performance for the not-that-long-ago has-been.

His speech is so entertaining that as I was hosting an Oscar Eve radio special on 790 KABC in Los Angeles last night, every guest that had been at the Spirits could talk about nothing else, including Best Supporting Actress nominee Taraji P. Henson from Benjamin Button, E!’s Ben Lyons, Associated Press film critic Christy Lemire, James Marsh, the writer/director of Man On Wire (favored to win Best Documentary Feature tonight) and Emmy winning actor Bryan Cranston from Breaking Bad (set to return on AMC on March 8). (more…)

I am forecasting a coronation for Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) at Sunday’s Academy Awards. My final predictions call for Slumdog wins in 8 of the 9 categories it is competing in including Best Picture and Best Director: Danny Boyle. The only place I think it will fail is in the Sound Mixing category where The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) may trump it.

Slumdog Millionaire is about to win the Hollywood's Grand Prize

The “Battle Royale” of the night is Mickey Rouke from The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) vs. Sean Penn in Milk (Focus) in the Best Actor category. There have been two ties in major categories in Academy Award history. The first was in 1932 when Frederic March in Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde shared Best Actor with Wallace Beery for The Champ. (March had one more vote, but in that era, any finish within 3 votes was rules a tie.) Then in 1968, Katherine Hepburn for The Lion In Winter and Barbara Streisand for Funny Girl tied for Best Actress. If there was any justice, Rourke and Penn would share the award. In any other year, either of them would be a lock. Forced to make a pick, I’m going with Rourke.

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On Sunday, the Academy Awards will be handed out at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood, and there are some clear favorites. Slumdog Millionaire, the feel-good Danny Boyle Mumbai opus made for just $14M, is a heavy favorite to win Best Picture. It’s hard to imagine Slumdog missing out on Hollywood’s biggest prize, having won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA Award and just about everything in between.

But, in the world of gambling, you always want to look for value. What are the films and performances with longer odds that would be worth a wager on Sunday? My purpose here is to establish a betting line for each of the six major categories, and then find the value bet in each category.

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