Joel’s problem is that he can never get home from work before his wife Susie (Kristen Wiig) puts on the sweatpants at the strike of 8pm … and once the sweatpants are on there will be no sex for the Extract King. What makes him late is the personnel and personality nonsense at the office; what slows him down is Nathan (a terrific David Koecher), one of those boorish nightmares of a neighbor whose lack of self-awareness eventually forces you to be rude to them. So Joel is frustrated — very frustrated, and taking advice from the exact wrong person: His buddy Dean (Ben Affleck), a long-haired bartender who has only one answer to every imaginable problem: Narcotics.

The clouds seem to finally part when General Mills makes an offer to buy Joel’s company. Eager to get out from under the thankless role of employer and escape the never-ending hassles his eccentric staff puts him through, “Sell!” Joel says, and then the mishap occurs. In what’s commonly known as an industrial accident, Step (Clifton Collins Jr.), loses a testicle and the sale of the company is put on hold due to all the unknowns surrounding a personal injury lawsuit.

Thankfully, Step has no desire to take advantage of the situation. All he really wants is a promotion to Floor Manager. Joel’s okay with that and once more the skies clear until the gorgeous, cunning, but still somewhat naive Cindy (Milas Kunis) arrives on the scene to complicate both the lawsuit and Joel’s love life. Having thus far coasted on her looks and made her way through life as a small-time con artist, Cindy sees the loss of a testicle as a shot at the big time.  

Batemen plays put upon about as well anyone out there, his Joel is no exception and he and the whole cast are the best part of a movie that has some fine pieces but never works as a whole. The plotting is choppy, the laughs sparse, and even for a somewhat off-center comedy, Joel’s actions – which turn most of the plot – strain credibility. My abiding affection for “Office Space” is well documented, and no one would argue that much beloved workplace comedy exemplifies tight plotting, but “Extract’s” whole reason for being is predicated on Joel’s inability to get home from work at 8pm and yet after this is firmly established, on at least three occasions, he up and leaves the office on a whim.

One can only suspend so much disbelief.

Judge’s insightful observational comedy is also lacking. “Office Space” (1999) nailed the subculture known as Planet Cubicle, and you didn’t have to live that life to appreciate how perfectly that world was captured. Here you never feel like you’re given the full tour of all the eccentric details that would make up the blue collar small business world of “Extract.” Bits and pieces work: Step’s empty machismo about being the fastest sorter, the tattooed fork-lift operator with the band, the bitter, territorial woman on the assembly line… Unfortunately, they serve only as a taste of what could have been.

Instead, the main focus is on one of those relationship comedies where the audience knows a simple conversation (or leaving work ten-minutes earlier) would solve everything, which in turn makes all the ensuing hilarity feel somewhat forced.

The luminous Kunis is sorely underused. Because the early focus (and the film’s advertising) is on her, it takes a while to adjust to the fact that her character’s primary function is to instigate the main story, not be a major participant in it. On the other hand, Affleck knocks his supporting role out of the park, Gene Simmons has a great time as a flamboyantly unscrupulous lawyer and in what could be a breakout role as the dumbest gigolo ever, Dustin Milligan is responsible for the film’s few memorable scenes.

One could argue the unfairness of comparing anything to “Office Space,” but that lightening in a bottle shared many of “Extract’s” plotting and structural problems. What swamped those flaws and made them irrelevant were endless streams of quotable dialogue and one iconic scene after another. “Extract” has some fine moments and will certainly play better on television than up on the big screen, but never gets off the ground. Removed from the shadow of what came before and placed in a vacuum, the result would not be a more entertaining movie just a less disappointing one.

But just as he seems prepared to make a deal with food giant General Mills to sell the plant for good, a freak accident occurs inside his plant that lops off one of a long-time employee’s testicles. The other is hanging by a thread, a metaphor that is apt for Joel’s life as it suddenly spirals out of control via a surreal round-robin of relationships that come unhinged and turn his life upside-down in the new comedy film “Extract.” 

Written and directed by Mike Judge, who has chronicled the modern everyman’s life in the long-running and brilliant Fox cartoon “King of the Hill” as well as in the short-running yet brilliant 1999 film “Office Space,” “Extract” takes a sharp-eyed and sharp-tongued look at middle-class values in Middle America. But once again, Judge proves that he possesses a true love for the common, working-class Joe that translates into comedy that uplifts rather than demeans the lives of its characters. 

And what characters they are, with Jason Bateman and Kristin Wiig as the lead couple; the gorgeous Mila Kunis playing Cindy, a con-artist whose ever-shifting false love interests enable her to sleep her way to the top of the bottom of the American ladder of success; Ben Affleck, in a hilarious turn as a mullet-sporting bartender named Dean, who can find a way to make any of his incredibly sleazy schemes sound perfectly moral; and Clifton Collins, Jr. as Step, the slow-witted warehouse worker whose twisted testicular travails drive the plot forward. Add in Dustin Milligan in a star-making performance as an incredibly dense aspiring gigolo named Brad, and you’ve got a cast of fresh faces and actors reinventing their personas, with the resulting effect being that Judge’s best lines aren’t just quotable, but rooted in a strong sense of realism turned askew. 

“Extract” marks a welcome return to form for Judge, who spent the decade following “Office Space” immersed in television work and writing-directing the ambitious but highly uneven film satire “Idiocracy” in 2006. After seeing that passion project – in which an average American soldier wakes up 500 years in the future after an experiment goes awry and discovers he’s now the smartest man in the country – trapped on the Fox studio shelf for more than two years before getting literally dumped into a handful of theaters with no ad campaign to support it, Judge has clearly decided to return to the working-class characters that have made him a zillionaire already. 

This time, though, Judge has improved his storytelling from the often-sketchy plotting of “Office Space,” making every scene an essential piece in an ever-more-complicated puzzle of riotous shenanigans. The overall effect matches the powerhouse effect of my favorite comedy of 2008, the Coen Brothers’ “Burn After Reading,” due to its whiplash pacing, utterly amoral and unpredictable characters and twisted dialogue.

Usually a film’s release on Labor Day weekend suggests that it’s a forgettable failure, with a merciful death assured amid the fading glow of summer box-office expectations. Thankfully, that isn’t the case with “Extract,” which deserves a long life in the theaters before its inevitable union with Judge’s other works as comedy staples to be quoted by generations to come.

This error would be egregious even without context, but wait until you hear who actually made the list:

There is an entire spread called “Barack’s Beauties” featuring seven Obama staffers who are among the USA’s finest 100–easily the highest number of executive branch hotties since the Coolidge administration.

White House Director of Speechwriting Jon Favreau was one of those selected; he is the boy who gave the memorable metaphoric “f*ck you” to the 18 million people who voted for Hillary in the primaries by groping a cardboard likeness of the New York Senator during the campaign (we’re still waiting for the feminist reaction to this one…).

Tim Geithner, a human incarnation of Beavis, was in there too.  Geithner is about as ill suited for a “Beautiful Peoples” list as he is for his job as Treasury Secretary.

The great Sam Kass, White House Chef (you read that right, not “Chief”)–a true Adonis if I have ever seen one—is on the list, along with Michelle Obama and three others who mark their business address 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Of course Tina Fey was among the anointed, and she arguably has her “Palin as bozo” SNL character to thank.  I wonder if Ms. Fey would have objected to the Palin snub?  In her own words: “I’ll tell you, that lady [Palin] is five times better-looking than I am.”  People Magazine did the worst vetting since the Obama cabinet appointments.

Katie Couric, who used her interview with Sarah Palin to stave off irrelevancy, was named one of People’s breathtaking beauties.  Is there a person on earth who watched that interview and thought “Palin’s alright, but that Couric babe!  Hubba Hubba!”?  I wonder if People selected Ms. Couric before or after she went to Zac Efron’s hairstylist?  It’s a good look for him.

A “Most Beautiful People” list without Sarah Palin is like an Obama Speech without a teleprompter.  The guy who prepares Obama’s spinach and feta quiches for his brunch with Ben Affleck, Don Cheadle, and that homeless-looking guy from the Black Eyed Peas…gorgeous!  The guy who felt-up a Hillary cut-out like a chick he met at a Black Eyed Peas concert…dazzling!  The tax-cheat with the Artist Formally Known as Prince haircut (no offense, Prince, “When Doves Cry” is fabulous)…delicious! Pretend Sarah Palin…divine!  Real Sarah Palin…?

People can’t even make the case that this is about inner beauty, as Kim Kardashian managed to make People’s roll despite the fact that she achieved her fame by releasing a homemade porno she made with irrelevant hip-hop-opotamus Ray J.  This type of behavior is deemed acceptable for “Beautiful People,” but holding traditional values is not.  More evidence: Miss USA, whom not a single one of you can name…in.  Miss California Carrie Prejean…out.

Sarah Palin is the most impressive beauty in American public life.  There is no close second.  She is feminism personified and she was trumped by a bunch of lefties who could never look as good as she does, let alone pull off a beehive.  I’d say I was outraged, but People’s pathetic predictability makes this oversight no surprise.

Yet, we can still take solace in this fact: while People may snub our woman from their bogus list, they can never take away our Palin pin-up calendars.  Which reminds me, it’s May now…time to turn the page. Oooooooo…bear trim…classy…

Star-turned-producer Hugh Jackman has scored his second-biggest opening ever and, easily, his biggest as a solo star. Wolverine has mauled the competition with a massive $34.75M opening day (including $5M or so in Thursday midnight sales). That could translate to a 3-day of $86.8M, getting Hollywood’s most lucrative season off to a spectacular start.

The stars of WOLVERINE (from the left): Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool, Taylor Kitsch as Gambit, Hugh Jackman as Wolverine, Liev Schrieber as Sabretooth and Lynn Collins as Kayla Silverfox

The X-Men spin-off, which has been made for substantially less than the $210M budget ponied up for to produce 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand, becomes the all-time fourth-best first-weekend-of-May opening, trailing only Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M), the original 2002 Spider-Man ($114.8M) and last May’s Iron Man ($98.6M). Wolverine has also posted one of the top seven opening days ever for a comic book adaptation.

ALL-TIME BEST OPENINGS DAYS FOR COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS
1. The Dark Knight – $67.1M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $59.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand – $45.1M
4. Spider-Man 2 – $40.4M
5. Spider-Man – $39.4M
6. Iron Man – $35.2M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $34.75M (estimated)
8. X2: X-Men United – $31.2M
9. 300 – $28.1M
10. Watchmen – $24.5M

And, as comic book movies go, Jackman’s solo effort has cut and sliced through the pack to become the all-time seventh-best 3-day start.

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE will not match the opening weekend of last year's summer starter IRON MAN

ALL-TIME BEST OPENING WEEKENDS FOR A COMIC BOOK ADAPTATION
1. The Dark Knight – $158.4M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $151.1M
3. Spider-Man – $114.8M
4. X-Men: The Last Stand – $102.7M
5. Iron Man – $98.6M
6. Spider-Man 2 – $88.1M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $86.8M (projected)
8. X2: X-Men United – $85.5M
9. 300 – $70.8M
10. Hulk – $62.1M

How does Jackman hold his silverware during dinner?

Jackman himself is getting lots of positive feedback on his personal Twitter page, but there is some real negative feedback in the Twitterverse. Here are some actually Tweets from movie fans that have been posted in the last couple of hours.

if its wolverine dont waste your time

Wolverine sucks!

Wolverine: not too bad. Better than the horrible second X-Men movie. Coolest thing was preview for District-9.

I went and paid for 2 movie tix to see that damn Wolverine movie. I just wasted my money.

Wolverine was ok – too much smooshed into one movie and too many things attempted to be neatly wrapped up and squared away.

Saw Wolverine. It was weak.

What does Hugh Jackman being a hottie have 2 do w/ how crappy the movie is?

Oh my God Wolverine was just as bad as everyone was saying.

out to see Wolverine! Ill let you guys know how bad it is.

“don’t waste your money” unless you’re a huge fan. Like 2nd X-files bad.

So, it appears that fans are as tepid about this movie as film critics. X-Men Origins: Wolverine will likely be very front-loaded both for the weekend and the long haul. I’m guessing that the weekend could play out like this. Wolverine did $5M Thursday at midnight and has added another $29.75M Friday (for a $34.75M opening day). Then Saturday, the movie may drop 9% to $31.6M or so, followed by a Sunday dip of 36% to just over $20M.

Jackman is not just another action star; Here he is in his Tony-winning performance in Broadway's BOY FROM OZ

After speaking with a number of competing studios, the consensus is that Wolverine will have a multiple of less than two. (The multiple is the number by which you multiply the opening weekend to arrive at the ultimate domestic gross.) With a multiple in the 1.8-1.9 range, the summer’s first movie spectacle will finish at $156-$165M. That’s a good, but not great number. Meanwhile, Star Trek (Paramount) has a chance to be this year’s Iron Man, an early May release that plays deep into the summer at a high multiple in the 3.2-3.3 range.

Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner are creating some sparks in GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST

The other wide release in the marketplace this weekend is the poorly-reviewed Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros). With Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner as the romantic leads and an assist from Oscar winner Michael Douglas, Ghosts has performed decently, especially with Females 25 Plus. The Mark Waters-directed rom-com coaxed an estimated $6M in opening day sales and will likely reach about $16.5M for the weekend. That’s would be 12% stronger than last year’s first-weekend-of-May chick-flick counter programming, Made of Honor, which finished second to Iron Man with $14.7M.

Ali Larter (center) and Beyonce (right) come to blows over THE WIRE's Idris Elba in OBSESSED

Last weekend’s box office champ Obsessed (Sony) – the one where Beyonce “tromps a tramp” (played by Ali Larter from Heroes) – took a nosedive with just $4.2M or so on Friday. It seems headed for an estimated 3-day of $12.39M, down 57% from its opening, but the genre pic with a budget of only $20M will still have $47M in the bank by Monday. That’s a very profitable little movie.

Tween are pushing Zac Efron's 17 AGAIN past the $50M mark

The Warner Bros comedy 17 Again, starring tween dream Zac Efron, continues to perform well with about $2.22M to start the weekend and a possible $6.62M for the frame. Zac’s high-concept comedy will have topped $48.7M domestic in its first 17 days of release.

The new nature doc EARTH is really just the Cliff Notes for the extraordinary BBC miniseries PLANET EARTH

Disney’s Earth, a 90-minute version of the BBC’s 11-hour 2006 miniseries Planet Earth, will round out the top five for the first official weekend of summer. The nature doc grabbed $1.45M on its second Friday and is targeting $5.81M and a new 12-day cume of $23.47M by Monday.

The other wide release is the 3-D pic Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions). It is on just over 1,100 screens, but has managed only about $300,000 on opening day. I did see a commercial for Terra during American Idol this week, so there was some money spent, but it couldn’t have been much. Despite respectable reviews, this cg animated flick is destined for no more than $1M. That’s a full-on disaster.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $34.75M, $8,478 PTA, $34.75M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $6M, $1,890 PTA, $6M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $4.2M, $1,671 PTA, $39M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $2.22M, $682 PTA, $44.36M cume
5. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.7M, $836 PTA, $14.2M cume
6. Earth (Disney) – $1.45M, $804 PTA, $19.11M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.41M, $537 PTA, $178M cume
8. Fighting (Rogue) – $1.4M, $608 PTA, $14.73M cume
9. State of Play (Universal) – $1.28M, $527 PTA, $28.51M cume
10. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $1.1M, $390 PTA, $67.88M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – $300,000, $258 PTA, $300,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $86.8M, $21,194 PTA, $86.8M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $16.5M, $5,197 PTA, $16.5M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $12.39M, $4,928 PTA, $47.19M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $6.62M, $2,034 PTA, $48.76M cume
5. Earth (Disney) – $5.81M, $3,221 PTA, $23.47M cume
6. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.7M, $2,804 PTA, $18.2M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.65M, $2,152 PTA, $182.25M cume
8. State of Play (Universal) – $4.31M, $1,765 PTA, $31.54M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $3.96M, $1,405 PTA, $70.74M cume
10. Fighting (Rogue) – $3.76M, $1,630 PTA, $17.1M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – $1M, $878 PTA, $1M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Look at these numbers.

X-Men – estimated budget – $75M
$20.8M opening day – $54.5M opening weekend – $152.3M domestic – $296.3M global

X-2: X-Men United – estimated budget – $110M
$31.25M opening day – $85.5M opening weekend – $214.9M domestic – $407.7M global

X-Men: The Last Stand – estimated budget – $210M
$45.1M opening day – $102.7M opening weekend – $224.4M domestic – $459.3M global

It’s pretty clear that, with no cost-containment on budget (especially the big cast), the X-Men franchise had reached the point of diminishing returns. So, X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox), debuting Friday, is a sequel, but, technically, a spin-off, without costing as much as a true sequel would.

A very different Hugh Jackman won the Tony for Best Actor for his performance in Broadway's BOY FROM OZ

I’m guessing that Hugh Jackman is working for a great price, also serving as a producer with a healthy backend participation. The rest of the name cast is essentially limited to Liev Schrieber (The Manchurian Candidate, The Omen), Dominic Monaghan (The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, ABC’s Lost) and Ryan Reynolds (Blade: Trinity, The Amityville Horror), and there is no Bryan Singer (X-Men, X-2) or Brett Ratner (X-Men 3) to direct. Instead, Fox and Jackman settled on the much less expensive, but still Academy Award-winning director Gavin Hood (Tsotsi). Now with a scaled-back story and cast, the movie comes in at a much more studio-friendly price while, hopefully, still packing an X-Men-style box office punch.

Aussie director Gavin Hood accepting his Oscar for TSOTSI

Fox has smartly positioned Wolverine as the first movie into the summer fray, and that is important because this is the one May huge release that may not have long legs (I believe that J.J. Abrams’ Star Trek will squash it like a bug on the all-new Enterprise windshield next week). I am told that pre-release industry tracking is in the stratosphere for this X-Men spin-off – Un-Aided Awareness, Total Awareness, Definite Interest and First Choice are all through the roof. When the tracking data gets this heated, predictions are dicey at best, but I am calling for $92M domestic. That would be just a tick lower than last year’s first-weekend-of-May starter Iron Man, which was $98.6M.

Without claws: Hugh Jackman as host of the 2009 Academy Awards

For those of you who may be reading my column for the first time, that $92M figure is my “prediction.” That means that based on my experience, conversations with sources at competing studios and interpretation of pre-release industry tracking, I am making a well-educated guess as to how X-Men Origins: Wolverine will deliver in opening weekend US sales. (The road is littered with other well-educated guessers, and I have missed substantially on a few predictions in the past.)

When I start writing on Friday, it will be based on early ticket sales. That will make my numbers “projections” instead of “predictions.” My Early Friday and 3-Day “projections” are historically off by no more than 5%-8%.

For the record, I believe that Mr. Jackman and the folks at Fox will be quite happy with anything north of $80M, but they are definitely working to keep expectations lower. In the end, I think they’ll be in the $90M-$95M range for 3-days.

Over the long haul, WOLVERINE will be no match for last year's IRON MAN

Ultimately, Iron Man performed like a monster deep into the summer. It was followed by the box office misfire Speed Racer on the following Friday, giving the Jon Favreau-directed comic book adaptation basically 17 days alone in the marketplace. Wolverine doesn’t have that luxury with the aforementioned Star Trek, arriving next Thursday starting at 7pm.

Additionally, Iron Man was jet-powered by spectacular reviews (93% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes)
and excellent word-of-mouth. It’ll be more of a mixed bag for X-Men Origins: Wolverine, standing at 41% Fresh on RT as of Wednesday night. The multiplier for Iron Man was 3.22 (the number by which you multiply the opening weekend figure by to arrive at the ultimate domestic gross). Wolverine is more likely to finish with a multiplier of 1.8-1.9. If the picture hits my opening weekend number, that multiplier will put the final US total at something in the $165M-$175M range.

In addition to my final weekend prediction, I also believe that Wolverine may scratch and claw its way to one of the top five or six opening days ever for a comic book movie. That could make it the 2nd-biggest opening day ever for a film from the X-Men franchise, trailing only the first day for X-Men 3.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENING DAYS FOR COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS
1. The Dark Knight – $67.1M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $59.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand – $45.1M
4. Spider-Man 2 – $40.4M
5. Spider-Man – $39.4M
6. Iron Man – $35.2M
7. X-2: X-Men United – $31.25M
8. Watchmen – $24.5M
9. Hulk – $24.2M
10. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer – $22M

There is always room for an inspired piece of counter-programming, and Warner Bros is apparently executing just that. The Matthew McConaughey-Jennifer Garner-Michael Douglas rom-com Ghosts of Girlfriends Past could reach a very solid $18M by appealing to Females 25 Plus.

The only other wide release is Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Atttractions), a sci-fi 3-D release unluckily sandwiched between Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) and Pixar’s Up (Disney) on the 3-D release schedule. Despite essentially decent early reviews (70% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), Terra will not be putting up much of a Battle. The 3-D screen count will be low, and there has been no real marketing money spent on getting this one launched. I’m predicting about $3.4M, which might be enough to “sneak it” into the top twelve for the frame.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF MAY 1-3
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $92M
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $18M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $10.2M
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $6.5M
5. Earth (Disney) – $5.6M
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.5M
7. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5M
8. State of Play (Universal) – $4.3M
9. Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $3.9M
10. Fighting (Rogue) – $3.8M
11. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $3.5M
12. NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate) – $3.4M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Beyonce does battle with the sexy Ali Larter (HEROES) in OBSESSED

OPENINGS FOR BEYONCE MOVIES
1. Austin Powers: Goldmember – $70.3M opening
2. Obsessed – $27.5M opening (projected)
3. Pink Panther (2006) – $20.2M opening
4. Dreamgirls – $14.1M wide break (after a platform start)
5. The Fighting Temptations – $11.7M opening
6. Cadillac Records – $3.4M opening

Now a million-selling solo artist with ubiquitous hits like Irreplaceable and Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It), she is beginning to cash in at the box office. She parlayed supporting roles in Mike Myers Austin Powers: Goldmember and Steve Martin’s Pink Panther into the showy Deena Jones role in the film adaptation of Dreamgirls, which topped $100M domestic (although the most of the awards hardware was ultimately taken home by Jennifer Hudson, winning Best Supporting Actress at both the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards). Beyonce received generally good notices for her turn as Etta James in Cadillac Records in December, although the movie was a box office dud with just $8.2M domestic. Now she has managed a surprise hit on her own with Obsessed.

By all accounts the movie is not very good. Sony didn’t screen it for critics, and the early reviews trickling in decidedly negative (25% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). Perhaps the excellent Pete Hammond from Hollywood.com sums it up best saying, “It’s strictly a generic thriller, perhaps the 105th blatant rip-off of Fatal Attraction, but not without its own guilty pleasures.” My hunch is that there is some trashy fun here with a “girl-on-girl smackdown” (Geoff Berkshire’s words from his review on Metromix.com), and the other girl is the stunning Ali Larter from NBC’s Heroes. Still when all is said and done, Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine (Fox) and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) starring Matthew McConaughey, both due next Friday, are certain to make Obsessed a one-week wonder, and it may get a speeding ticket on its way to home video.

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE kicks off the summer next Friday

Even if Beyonce’s “movie legs” aren’t as long as her real (and shapely) legs, Obsessed has set a new opening record for the last weekend of April, traditionally a studio dumping ground for schlock and tough-to-sell movies.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS ON LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL
1. Obsessed (2009) – $27.5M (projected)
2. Mean Girls (2004) – $24.4M
3. Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Universe (2005) – $21.1M
4. Baby Mama (2008) – $17.4M
5. RV (2006) – $16.4M
6. Identity (2003) – $16.2M
7. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay (2008) – $14.9M
8. XXX: State of the Union (2005) – $12.7M
9. Driven (2001) – $12.1M
10. United 93 (2006) – $11.5M

Former A&F model Channing Tatum is flexing his box office muscle this weekend in FIGHTING

Aside from the monstrous upside surprise for Obsessed, the strong performance of Fighting (Rogue) ranks as the biggest box office upset of the weekend. This Channing Tatum vehicle from his A Guide To Recognizing Your Saints director Dito Montiel didn’t seem to have much traction in pre-release audience tracking, but the PG-13 street fighting yarn has actually delivered the second-best Friday gross with about $4.46M. It will be pretty front-loaded, but should still reach a better-than-expected $12M by Monday, enough for second-place.

Zac Efron is proving to be a little less durable among the teen and pre-teen set than I would have thought. 17 Again (Warner Bros), also starring Matthew Perry and Mrs. Judd Apatow (Leslie Mann) has delivered a second Friday in the $3.85M range. The weekend could hit $10.83M or so, second for the 3-day, for a new 10-day cume of $39.13M, but that represents a deeper-than-expected 54% drop.

Next comes the long-delayed Robert Downey Jr./Jamie Foxx project The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount). Originally slated for December with hopes of a Best Actor nomination for Downey, Jr., the Joe Wright-directed tearjerker was first moved to March before settling into this unfriendly last weekend of April slot. Reviews are respectable (61% Fresh on RT) and Downey, Jr. and Foxx both have real drawing power. At just over 2,000 playdates, the movie has managed a tuneful $3.43M (#4 for the day) to start the frame, and opening weekend could reach $10.29M, good for fourth place. The 25 Plus appeal, especially with women, gives this one a chance to do respectable business over the next couple of weekends as counter-programming to the first few summer blockbusters.

A Great White Shark lunging out of the ocean to snatch a seal in Disney's EARTH

Rounding out the top five, and a bit of a disappointment, is Earth (Disney). The studio’s calculated use of Earth Day to release its Cliffs Notes version of the BBC miniseries Planet Earth has, however, paid some dividends. The 11-hour miniseries has been boiled down to the cutest and scariest animals along with the most fascinating images and picturesque landscapes in a tight 90-minute package, and the re-purposed result generated just over $4M for Wednesday’s Earth Day celebration, adding another $1.6M or so on Thursday. Now the nature doc, which is running at 83% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, has slumped to an estimated $2.9M in Friday sales. It will play big with family audiences on Saturday and Sunday (the kids will be unable to resist baby polar bears sliding down a snowy arctic slope), but I am penciling in Earth for a 3-day of only $10M. That still gives it the biggest 3-day opening ever for a nature doc, although this is also the widest opening ever for a movie of this type.

ALL-TIME TOP 3-DAY OPENINGS FOR NATURE DOCS
- total domestic cumes included -
1. Earth – $9.39M (projected)
2. March of the Penguins – $7.1M opening – $77.4M cume
3. Two Brothers – $6.1M opening – $19.1M cume
4. Winged Migration – $470,000 biggest weekend – $10.7M cume
5. Arctic Tale -  $207,000 opening – $830,000 cume

2004’s Two Brothers, a story of tiger cubs from director Jean-Jacques Annaud, was a wide release like Earth, but the other 3 films listed above were platformed. Disney’s abridged version of Planet Earth has no chance of reaching the staggering success of 2005’s March of the Penguins, but Earth could get to the $30M range even with summer’s biggest guns blazing starting next Friday.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $11M, $4,375 PTA, $11M cume
2. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $4.46M, $1,932 PTA, $4.46M cume
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $3.85M, $1,183 PTA, $32.15M cume
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.2M, $1,581 PTA, $3.2M cume
5. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $2.9M, $1,608 PTA, $8.54M cume
6. State of Play (Universal) – $2.08M, $741 PTA, $20.31M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.05M, $579 PTA, $168.34M cume
8. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $1.93M, $541 PTA, $141.09M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $1.77M, $548 PTA, $60.98M cume
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $850,000, $382 PTA, $9.96M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $27.5M, $10,939 PTA, $27.5M cume
2. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $12M, $5,197 PTA, $12M cume
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $10.83M, $3,327 PTA, $39.13M
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $10.29M, $5,084 PTA, $10.29M cume
5. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $10M, $5,543 PTA, $15.64M cume
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.5M, $2,531 PTA, $174.79M cume
7. State of Play (Universal) – $7.1M, $2,529 PTA, $25.33M cume
8. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $6.65M, $2,058 PTA, $65.86M cume
9. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $5.79M, $1,625 PTA, $144.95M cume
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $2.8M, $1,259 PTA, $11.91M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

The 4 new wide releases and 1 major specialty release set to debut this weekend will face an onslaught of mega-hits over the next month. How can Obsessed (Sony), Earth (Disney), The Soloist, (Dreamworks/Paramount), Fighting (Rogue) and The Informers (Senator) possibly find an audience with X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) arriving next weekend followed by, in successive weeks, Star Trek (Paramount), Angels & Demons (Sony), the combo of Night at the Museum 2 (Fox) and Terminator: Salvation (Fox) and Disney/Pixar’s Up?

X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE starring Hugh Jackman will be unleashed next weekend

End of April starters have tended to be genre pics like 2003’s Identity and The Invisible (2007), mid-budget messes that have fallen short of expectations like the ridiculous Next (2007) starring Nicolas Cage and XXX: State of the Union in ’05, and tough-to-sell pictures like the excellent United 93 (2006) from director Paul Greengrass and the good-hearted 2006 movie Akeelah & the Bee. Tina Fey is the unofficial queen of the last weekend of April, writing and starring in Mean Girls and mugging her way through Baby Mama with Amy Poehler last year.

30 ROCK's Tina Fey has starred in 2 of the 3 biggest last weekend of April openers ever

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS ON LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL
1. Mean Girls (2004) – $24.4M
2. Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Universe (2005) – $21.1M
3. Baby Mama (2008) – $17.4M
4. RV (2006) – $16.4M
5. Identity (2003) – $16.2M
6. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay (2008) – $14.9M
7. XXX: State of the Union (2005) – $12.7M
8. Driven (2001) – $12.1M
9. United 93 (2006) – $11.5M
10. Stick It (2006) – $10.8M

The likely weekend winner will be either Obsessed or Disney’s nature doc Earth, which opened Wednesday to about $4M, but I am giving the nod to recording superstar Beyonce despite the fact that Sony has kept its exploitative-looking thriller completely under wraps. Under its Screen Gems banner, Sony knows how to squeeze one good weekend out of movie like this regardless of how bad it is. Last year, Screen Gems scored excellent 3-day starts for sub-par movies like Prom Night ($20.8M), First Sunday ($17.7M), Lakeview Terrace ($15M), Quarantine ($14.2M) and Untraceable ($11.3M). Industry tracking suggests that Beyonce could drive the certain-to-be-forgettable Obsessed to a decent $15M opening weekend, and it will likely play very well at inner city theatre properties.

That would push Earth to #2 for the frame. The Earth Day opening was successful, and critics love the film (83% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). Family audiences love cute baby animals so Disney has excerpted the amazing BBC miniseries Planet Earth to fashion their own March of the Penguins-style narrative nature doc. It’s hard to imagine anything cuter than baby polar bears sliding down a snow bank, and it’s hard to come up with anything scarier than a Great White Shark lunging out of the water after its prey. I have seen the full length miniseries, but not Disney’s movie. Still it’s hard to imagine this not being unbelievably compelling stuff, even in its 90 minute theatrical version (although I still recommend tracking down the full BBC series instead). I am forecasting a possible $13.2M for 3-days, which would mean a 5-day start of just over $19M.

Last weekend’s champ, 17 Again (Warner Bros) starring ‘tween heartthrob Zac Efron, should hold up fairly well. The word-of-mouth is very positive, and that could mean a drop of only 46% or so to about $12.7M and a new cume of just over $40M by Monday.

Oscar nominee Robert Downey, Jr. (TROPIC THUNDER) and Academy Award winner Jamie Foxx (RAY) star in THE SOLOIST

The Joe Wright-directed The Soloist has been juggled around the release schedule with abandon, but it has been very well marketed with a heavy TV campaign, especially during shows geared for the 25+ crowd. The reviews are a mixed bag (54% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but there will be some business in this title. Some of my sources are saying $12M-$14M, but I am calling for a possible $11.6M.

The well-reviewed Russell Crowe journalism thriller State of Play (Universal) will almost certainly hang onto a spot in the top 5. The dip will be gentle (maybe 35%-40%), and this very good adult film could generate another $9M in ticket sales.

FINAL PREDICTION FOR APRIL 24-26
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $15M
2. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $13.2M
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $12.7M
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $11.6M
5. State of Play (Universal) – $9M
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $7.9M
7. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $7.4M
8. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $7M
9. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $5.8M
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $2.8M
11. Knowing (Summit) – $2M
12. NEW – The Informers (Senator) – $1.7M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Ann Coulter vs. Katie Couric - At first glance it may look like “Hearns vs Hagler 2.0.” Ann Coulter (Tommy Hearns) has the obvious reach advantage, while Couric’s got those power-projecting hips that can knock you off of your feet.  I see Couric implementing a lot of footwork however (as displayed by her constant dancing around tough questions), while trying to avoid any real damage. Expect the confidence factor to come into play as Coulter flicks a long but snappy jab, jousting Couric all the way into the final stanza.

Coulter by Decision

Ben Affleck vs. Robert Downey Jr. – Obviously, Ben Affleck has one of the largest craniums in the Northern Hemisphere, so falling victim to a flash knockout is unlikely. Just as surely, we know that Ben Affleck is as dumb as a bag of hammers. Expect Downey’s intelligence to result in picture-perfect game-planning, leading to a dominating victory over a tired and confused Affleck in the later rounds.

Downey by TKO in the 3rd. — * note to Downey: All fights are drug-test mandatory

Sean Penn vs. Anyone over 5’9 – Sean loses by any which way his opponent desires.

Johnny Depp vs. Richard Gere – This could possibly be the most sissified fight known to man resulting in a “no mas” from both of the cowardly, U.S.A-hating twirps. Expect no punches to be thrown, no testosterone to be put on display and no respect to be earned.
No Contest… Unless someone gets hit by the ref with a chair.

Andrew Breitbart vs. Michael Moore – The clash of the heavyweights, Andrew is a natural heavyweight, While Michael Moore… Not so much.  His weight classing is a result of pure bodily neglect. Breitbart goes into this one with the height/reach advantage with Moore benefiting from a lower center of gravity. Expect Moore to make early takedown attempts, only to have them stuffed by a longer, more nimble Breitbart. As a gelatinous Moore tires after only 12 seconds into the first round, Breitbart would capitalize with a fight-ending blow.

Breitbart by KO in the 1st.

Feel free to post your dream match-ups and analysis as we go.  Come on, you know that you’ve thought about it.  I can’t be the only one…

“It would be a very, very terrible thing for the United States in many, many ways,” he said. Adding that Mr. Obama, “represents a huge step upward from (the) incompetence and misjudgment” of the Bush administration.”

You know, it’s a hard thing to watch your heroes fall. To see them as they really are, not as you thought they were, not as you wish they were.

I grew up loving Woody Allen movies, ranking “Annie Hall,” “Manhattan” and “Hannah and Her Sisters” as three of my favorite all-time films. With “Radio Days” and “Sleeper” not too far behind. 

I also grew up watching the evening news. I felt it was good, it was right when breaking news events came by way of the distinguished anchor, the courageous reporter in the field or by intrepid foreign correspondent, trench coat and all, reporting from overseas. I thought we were being looked after, our interests as Americans were safe with the names I could recite, everyone could recite, without skipping a beat, names synonymous with reporting, with news, with professionalism. I watched Dan Rather,  Peter Jennings, MacNeil/Lehrer, Bill Moyers and even a little of Walter Cronkite without a thought to any reason why I shouldn’t.  These were the voices I heard. These were the faces I believed. The people on TV that I looked up to. That’s the way it was.

Since then, I have learned that I was fooled. I was tricked, tricked by professionals at illusion: entertainers and journalists.

I don’t blame them.  I just feel sad. I feel sad that those fixed stars of my childhood have all but vanished, disappeared into a bleakness and a darkness that is bias, that is a pandemic misguidedness all in the name of power, power for one side, their side, their choices, with little regard for the big picture, the country, our culture.

Like myself, Woody Allen is a New Yorker. He, too, experienced the reality of 9/11 up close and personal. It hit home like nothing else before it. Yet, if we are to judge him by his statements to the press — the international press – he is ignoring the fact that our country has been untouched, completely and absolutely for the seven plus years since that horrible day. No matter how many arguments you have over oil, Halliburton, missing Bin Laden, etc, there has been no repeat of 9/11. None. It’s a fact that seems to go unnoticed by so many in the media, so many like Woody Allen, so many otherwise intelligent people. We have not been hit again.

Mr. Allen completely ignores the reality that this feat was and has been due in large part to the steadfastness of one man, one man who faced obstacles in our media, in our press, in our entertainment fields of movies, music, news, print and video. Every possible avenue of information dispersal in the English language and beyond has been hellbent on bringing down this one man, removing him – trying to do to him, to President Bush, with slow bullets what befell President Kennedy with fast ones.

They failed. No, they didn’t miss. They hit him most certainly. Yes, they wounded him and us.  They wounded and killed many in the field, many innocent civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan, and many of our finest citizens who volunteered to protect our nation by joining the armed forces. They, that our friends in the press and entertainment call rubes, morons and uneducated, those honored souls that Hollywood defiles at every opportunity are our best. Yeah, those guys. How many of them were wounded or killed because our irresponsible media and shameless entertainment industry heaped scorn on our country’s Commander in Chief at the worst possible time, when all the world’s eyes were upon us, when everyone waited to see what the United States was going to do when attacked on its shores. Eyes strained to see what would happen when the entertainment capital of the world, Woody Allen’s beloved New York City was struck a lethal blow and when the political capital was likewise attacked.  What enemy would not want to see and examine what this so-called omnipotent super power was going to do next?

When the burned steel and flesh was still smoldering at Pearl Harbor, Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto allegedly stated, “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.” Whether or not he actually uttered those words, or only included them in his diary later, is unknown. But what is undeniable is that he believed them.

This phrase was repeated, in various versions all over the place after 9/11. So many people believed that we could not let 9/11 go unpunished. So many people felt we could not just wait for the UN to bungle it. So many people were certain we’d come together as a country, just like after Pearl Harbor. So many people were positive it was finally time to send the message that America was not going to allow its citizens to perish at the hands of madmen.

So many people… forgot.

Sleeping, indeed. Well, Yamamoto was half right. While most of the country forgot their words, their resolve, they went back to work, never really feeling a blip in their daily lives, since they didn’t live in Woody Allen’s New York or work in the Pentagon, and let’s face it, continuing to think about 9/11 was like going to watch “The Sorrow and the Pity” one more time. It was depressing. So, we went back to our lives already in progress. We fell back asleep again.

But our Commander in Chief didn’t. Our airmen didn’t. Our sailors didn’t. Our soldiers didn’t. Our Marines didn’t. They are our giants. And it is their shoulders we now stand upon. How many have lost eyes, limbs, years from their lives because callous individuals which make up our celebrity class are quoted in the domestic and overseas media constantly spewing their hate for this one man, for his stubborn efforts to keep us safe and prevent another 9/11?  How many suffered, who are not Americans, because terrorists, and that’s what they are, were emboldened by a fraud documentary or a movie star-of-the-week’s public mockery of our president to anyone and everyone who would listen. And brother, did the world’s press love to listen.

This reminds me of something I’ve thought about a lot since 9/11. In the movie “The Godfather,” there are so many great scenes it’s really hard to pick a favorite. But there is one very small but profound one that stands out for me.  It’s a keystone to what happens to the Corleone family from that moment on. Nothing for that family, other families and for the entire business – since the Corleone’s strength is what keeps the peace amongst them –  is the same after that scene.  Can you start to see why this scene comes to mind? No, it’s not a shootout at a toll booth in New Jersey.  No, it’s not a montage of execution and baptism, nor is it a very nice veal dinner ruined by a .38 caliber tracheotomy. No, it’s a very quiet scene. And many might not even remember it. But it’s the stepping stone to all that follows. And it applies exactly to what I have  witnessed my country doing to itself since 9/11, and maybe before, if I had taken the time to notice.

The scene takes place in the building of the Genco Olive Oil Company. The Godfather is there with his sons. He is visited by an ambitious outsider making the rounds to all the families who run New York’s underworld. When Sonny, for a brief moment, shows that he might be interested in a new line of business being pitched by this outsider, but which his father had already concluded was not in keeping with their line of work or morality, all is lost. Sonny blew it. That one moment, that one action of Sonny’s was to be the undoing of all that they knew.

How can that be, you ask?  Just by showing interest? Or was it greed? The Godfather, the father to his sons, had wisdom enough to realize that to show even the slightest bit of division of purpose within the family was to show the enemy how to attack and defeat them. His displeasure at his son’s carelessness is obvious, but he attempts to diminish its importance by writing it off to youth and a few too many amorous expeditions. But the damage is done. And the Godfather knows it. He shows it in his eyes. Brando is marvelous here. Coppola was very clever not to overplay this scene. He knew to keep it simple and subtle. Because it was subtlety, nuance, and yes, greed that gives away the shop, that exposes the weakness.

Division. You would think no celebrity, no movie star, no director, and especially no director from New York would ever miss something that poignant.

It’s known worldwide that President Bush was a man who did not always do well in front of the camera. But it’s not an easy thing for anyone in even the best conditions. It’s particularly difficult, if not impossible, when the camera has, so to speak, a limited focus and narrow depth of field. Thanks to those cameras, Bush’s every flub, every misstep, every awkward moment that we’ve all been prone to, was highlighted for all the world to see, and for our enemies to learn from, to learn of our lack of unity. Thanks to those cameras President Bush took the heat and became the figurehead for every error, perceived and real, made in America or abroad dating back to the Magna Carta. And for those small, insignificant gains, such as not being attacked since 9/11, for that actual accomplishment and so many others of which we never hear of, he is given none of the credit. Nor does he seek it. What does he do, instead? He thanks the troops.

Filmmaker Woody Allen knows all too well the manipulation possible with the camera,  microphone, and editing room. He knows all too well how easy it is to make things appear the way you want them to. The way you need them to.

He knows.

Yet, he seems to have been hoodwinked into thinking Mr. Obama was going to bring change, real change, positive change to the Oval Office. Why did he think this? What evidence was there? Mr. Allen had stated quite clearly that our country would suffer home and abroad if we as a nation did not elect Mr. Obama. Of what evidence or expertise did he consult or review to make such a claim, other than the promises made by a smooth candidate unknown to him and most of the world a mere one year earlier?  All we could judge this candidate on were his words and his appearance in front of the camera on the campaign trail. That, and promises of change, loosely dangled in front of self-inflicted weary eyes, hoping for something, anything to bring joy to them after the eight years of misery, of not being attacked again.

Make no mistake.  Mr. Allen is not to be grouped in the same category as the Matt Afflecks, the Ben Damons or the Maggie Cho Garofalos. No, he is not an outspoken and overpaid semi-talented celebrity smitten with the limelight and adored by fans hanging on and hooting at his every shameless, treasonous word. No, that is not Woody Allen. He is a talented director and a gifted writer with a vast reservoir of experiences that trump anything a pretty face and high friends in higher places could ever hope to muster. Unlike the celebrity actor, a good director is a manager, a contemplator of bigger pictures than the scene at hand, constantly dealing in the reality of imaginary ‘what if’s. With all due respect to great actors everywhere, and there are many, the director has a bit more to be concerned about than lines to be memorized, a mark to hit and a good side to show to the cameras. He must be a multi-level chess player aware of always changing contingencies on what to do if this fails, if that goes wrong, if so-and-so doesn’t show up. He is tasked with a never-ending list of scenarios of what ideally should be done, what can be done, and what will probably have to be done for each and every set-up, with more levels of uncertainty than a fictional “Buck” Turgidson or Walter Groteschele could ever dream of. He does this all the while inspiring confidence among his crew and never losing sight of the goal: to create something entertaining for others. Maybe even something fun.

In the James L. Brooks film “As Good as it Gets,” Jack Nicholson’s character, Melvin, is approached by a fan who adores his very successful novels.

Young Woman: How do you write women so well?

Melvin: I think of a man, and I take away reason and accountability.

Jack could just as easily be talking about our favorite liberal celebrities there. Too many on the left, while our nation is at war and lives are at stake, have failed to apply reason or bother to take responsibility for their words or any accountability of their behavior and actions, aside from that connected with their box office appeal.

Directors, traditionally, must be able to reason and are always accountable. That’s why, when a director makes statements such as Woody, it means more, it hurts more. While in the past, Mr. Allen had shown himself to be an astute thinker and poignant commentator on the comic tragedy called life and with all his abilities, all his experience, all his wit and humor on the fraud that is power, that is politics, he fully accepted Mr. Obama’s campaign promises on face value alone. He did so for no other reason than that such otherwise written blandness was performed well in front of the camera. With all his background why would Woody Allen fall for that?

Why did Dan Rather throw away a distinguished career on the eve of his retirement, to push a story he simply had to know was false, or at the very least stemmed from a single, highly questionable source? Again. Why?

What has happened to critical thinking?

Mr. Allen is not naive.  I won’t get into his personal life and criticize him for his judgement there. That would be unfair, and far too easy. Besides, who among us, including our former president, has not made decisions in their lives, absolutely certain of their correctness at the time, that to others, not in-the-know would seem misguided, wrong or downright evil? Mr. Allen seems unaware that the same description he used of what would have happened to us in America if Obama had lost, “a disgrace” and “humiliation,” are the very words most would apply today to our media, our entertainment industry and of course Mr. Allen’s own personal family life choices.

How can a man who brought us such great visions in his films suddenly be so blind?

Are we in good hands now? Today’s news says otherwise. Woody must feel we are at least not “a disgrace and a humiliation” to the rest of the world. So, that’s something, I guess. Are we safe? Time will tell. But watching the news as I used to do no longer leaves me with any comfort or feeling that the news system itself is in good hands, that they’ll get to the bottom of it, whatever ‘it’ is. Gone is the feeling reporters will leave no stone unturned while the anchor, fulfilling his namesake, will steady the nerves of the nation and remind us of our safety and our security as the president quietly but effectively ensures it.  Is that happening anymore for anyone? Is anyone out there feeling reassured by the news, that all may not be well, but that we can handle it because we’re Americans, after all?

I’m not getting that anymore.  And I don’t believe that those in the news really care anymore if we do. I think they did, at one time. I really think they tried. But that isn’t what is happening today in all newsrooms great and small. This is a sad conclusion that many, like me, have come reluctantly to meet, and that others are turning their eyes away from. I will confess, though, that what I miss more than most things about those days are the anchors themselves. It may sound shallow, but there aren’t any real anchormen or women in the news business anymore, are there?  Like the great actors and directors of Hollywood, they’re replaced by a  washed-out bland parade of interchangeable names and faces, all equally untrustworthy and lacking.

To my own questions I have no answers, it is true. Only a kind of sadness and a yearning. A yearning to go back to those days before I knew any better, before the stars began to fade, before they ceased to shine so brightly above, blinding me with their visual eloquence and to a reality that I can now see all too clearly.

As a production company, Summit is responsible for some monster hits, including commercially and/or artistically successful films like Once (Oscar nominee for Best Picture), American Pie ($102..5M domestic), Memento (Oscar nominee for Best Original Screenplay: Chris Nolan), Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($186.3M domestic) and In the Valley of Ellah (Tommy Lee Jones nominated for Best Actor). But as a distributor, they got off to a slow start.

SUMMIT RELEASES
- in sequential order -
11/9/07 – P2 – $4M cume
2/29/08 – Penelope – $10M cume
3/14/08 – Never Back Down – $24.8M cume
8/15/08 – Fly Me To the Moon – $13.2M cume
10/17/08 – Sex Drive – $8.4M cume
11/21/08 – Twilight – $191.3M cume
2/6/09 – Push – $30.9M cume
3/20/09 – Knowing – $24.8M opening – $55M-$60M projected cume

As I wrote Friday, I think that word-of-mouth is weak for Knowing, but the movie held up pretty well over opening weekend. It is definitely helped by it’s PG-13 rating, its appeal to Males Under 25 (especially Under 17’s), and its similarity to Cage’s National Treasure franchise.

Meanwhile, I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) ticked up 8% on Saturday to about $6.8M, and it will have banked about $18M by Monday morning. That is on par with Paul Rudd’s Role Models ($19.1M opening) and Jason Segal’s Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($17.7M opening). I’m sticking with $65M-$70M as my projection for domestic box office for this very funny movie that happens to have a very good heart.

I really wonder about the R-rating for I Love You, Man. It is a very, very soft R. There is no nudity or sex (although there are references to oral sex in particular), and it doesn’t roll up a high count of F-bombs. It seems to me that the ratings board was hard on this one, and a PG-13 rating could have meant an additional $5M-$8M (at least) on opening weekend.

DUPLICITY is Julia Roberts' first feature lead since 2003's MONA LISA SMILE

The other new wide release is Duplicity (Universal), starring Julia Roberts and Clive Owen. This is a very smart, densely-plotted, stylish-looking movie for grown-ups. Writer/director Tony Gilroy is among the best screenwriters in town with all three Jason Bourne movies on his resume along with the legal thriller Michael Clayton, nominated for 7 Academy Awards.

With Females 25 Plus as its most important demo, the film got a big 27% Saturday bump to almost $6M. I saw the movie Saturday night, and it was about 60% women with lots of women in pairs and groups. That is a very good sign for future weeks since Females 25 Plus are never in a rush to see a movie on opening weekend. The audience I was in was mesmerized and laughed in all the right places, but overall, the CinemaScore exit survey was only a C. I still belive that, after a $14.4M third-place finish, Duplicity will get to the $45M-$50M range in the US.

Not strong enough to hold an audience for weekend #2 of RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN

Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) is not holding well at all, dipping to $13M for the weekend. A 46% second weekend drop spells an early end for the new one starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. It is just not especially well-liked, and Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks Animation) will destroy it next weekend.

Sorry Rohrschach, WATCHMEN is completely burned out

Finally, Watchmen (Warner Bros) suffered a second consecutive disastrous 3-day, down another 62% to $6.7M for a 17-day cume of $98M. Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s classic graphic novel is unlikely to reach much past $110M in the US, and with a soft foreign performance as well, it will struggle to reach any real profitability.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $24.81M, $7,447 PTA, $24.81M cume
2. NEW – I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $18M, $6,640 PTA, $18M cume
3. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $14.4M, $5,595 PTA, $14.4M cume
4. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $13M, $4,080 PTA, $44.71M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $6.72M, $1,916 PTA, $98M cume
6. The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.92M, $2,465 PTA, $24.04M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $4.4M, $1,654 PTA, $133.43M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.7M, $1,306 PTA, $137.2M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.51M, $1,368 PTA, $87.2M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.14M, $1,498 PTA, $72.8M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.