Summit scores a nice hit with KNOWING, which could reach $60M domestic, while I LOVE YOU, MAN has a shot at $70M in the US!

It was another good weekend for Summit Entertainment. The distributor behind last year’s meteoric hit Twilight has scored a solid hit with the Alex Proyas-directed Knowing, starring Nicolas Cage. Despite shaky word-of-mouth and negative reviews, the sci-fi thriller got a solid 9% bump on Saturday for a $9.7M second day, and it will likely finish its opening weekend with a possible $24.8M.

As a production company, Summit is responsible for some monster hits, including commercially and/or artistically successful films like Once (Oscar nominee for Best Picture), American Pie ($102..5M domestic), Memento (Oscar nominee for Best Original Screenplay: Chris Nolan), Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($186.3M domestic) and In the Valley of Ellah (Tommy Lee Jones nominated for Best Actor). But as a distributor, they got off to a slow start. (more…)

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take, a.r. rachman, academy awards
Posted Mar 22nd 2009 at 11:33 am in Entertainment, Steve Mason's Box Office | 8666210 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/22/studioestimates-2/Summit+scores+a+nice+hit+with+KNOWING%2C+which+could+reach+%2460M+domestic%2C+while+I+LOVE+YOU%2C+MAN+has+a+shot+at+%2470M+in+the+US%212009-03-22+18%3A33%3A54Steve+Mason

KNOWING grabs $8.95M Friday & targets $23.2M weekend, but word-of-mouth may push I LOVE YOU, MAN to $70M domestic; DUPLICITY gets a only a C from CinemaScore!

Early box office returns are pointing to a weekend win for Knowing from Summit, but I will put my money on I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) to generate more in US ticket sales over the long haul. The Nicolas Cage sci-fi thriller has grabbed an estimated $8.95M to start the weekend, and it will likely finish at $24M or so. That is, unless word-of-mouth catches up to it first.

Will reviews and word-of-mouth catch up to KNOWING?

Reviews for Knowing, written and directed by Alex Proyas, the inventive filmmaker behind the visually striking 1998 film Dark City and the 2004 Will Smith mega-hit I, Robot, has received overwhelmingly negative reviews (25% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but thanks to Twitter, real-time movie-goer reactions spread like wildfire. Here are some Tweets I just grabbed off the social networking platform.

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take, a.r. rachman, academy awards
Posted Mar 20th 2009 at 10:30 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 8596218 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/20/estimates-9/KNOWING+grabs+%248.95M+Friday+%26amp%3B+targets+%2423.2M+weekend%2C+but+word-of-mouth+may+push+I+LOVE+YOU%2C+MAN+to+%2470M+domestic%3B+DUPLICITY+gets+a+only+a+C+from+CinemaScore%212009-03-21+05%3A30%3A27Steve+Mason

KNOWING is favored to win the weekend, but is I LOVE YOU, MAN poised for an upset?

For the last few weeks, Summit’s Knowing, starring Nicolas Cage, has appeared to be the likely winner of the upcoming box office weekend. But, my sources tell me that I Love You, Man, the new comedy starring Paul Rudd (Role Models) and Jason Segal (Forgetting Sarah Marshall) has surged in the latest pre-release industry tracking.

In the spirit of March Madness, I’m calling for the upset. I Love You, Man may not actually be a Judd Apatow movie, but it sure does look like one in trailers and commercials. The movie reportedly “rocked the house” at the South By South West Festival last week, and the buzz is very positive. I am calling for $21.5M, which would be above industry expectations.

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Posted Mar 19th 2009 at 5:39 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 8503027 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/19/tracking-3/KNOWING+is+favored+to+win+the+weekend%2C+but+is+I+LOVE+YOU%2C+MAN++poised+for+an+upset%3F2009-03-20+00%3A39%3A04Steve+Mason

Audiences RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN on Saturday as The Rock’s new family film targets $25M start & $85M domestic, but WATCHMEN is now headed for no more than $110M in the US!

As expected Disney’s Race To Witch Mountain enjoyed a huge Saturday surge for just over $11M in tickets sold, and the reboot of the 70’s franchise will finish with about $25M for the 3-day. Overall, Race posted the year’s seventh-best Saturday performance.

TOP 10 SATURDAY GROSSES IN 2009
1. March 7 – Watchmen – $18.3M
2. February 21 – Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail – $16.6M
3. February 14 – Friday the Thirteenth – $14.3M
4. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $13.2M
5. January 10 – Gran Torino – $12.1M
6. January 31 – Taken – $11.65M
7. March 14 - Race To Witch Mountain – $11M (estimated)
8. February 7 – He’s Just Not That Into You – $10.9M
9. January 17 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $10M
10. January 17 – Gran Torino – $10M
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Posted Mar 15th 2009 at 12:02 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 802822 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/15/studio-estimates/Audiences+RACE+TO+WITCH+MOUNTAIN+on+Saturday+as+The+Rock%27s+new+family+film+targets+%2425M+start+%26amp%3B+%2485M+domestic%2C+but+WATCHMEN+is+now+headed+for+no+more+than+%24110M+in+the+US%21+2009-03-15+19%3A02%3A03Steve+Mason

Wrestler-turned-movie star Dwayne Johnson leads RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN to a $24.25M opening, while WATCHMEN plummets 71%!

As Watchmen (Warner Bros) falls, “The Rock” appears to be racing to a weekend win. Disney’s Race To Witch Mountain, starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, is off to a solid start with $6.8M or so on opening day, and, with its expected surge in family matinee audiences on Saturday and Sunday, it will likely triumph with a possible $24.25M.

Meanwhile last weekend’s winner Watchmen staggered to a second Friday of only $5.4M or so, and I am projecting only $15.75M for the 3-day. That marks a 71% drop. Anything over $20M would have been acceptable, but the bottom has fallen out of this movie, and it will now struggle to reach $100M domestic. When the foreign and DVD are added, it may make a small profit, but it will likely be negligible. The superstitious might suggest that Watchmen writer Alan Moore’s alleged curse may be to blame, but the reality is that word-of-mouth has been more negative than for any movie in recent memory.

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Posted Mar 13th 2009 at 10:46 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 7964662 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/13/estimates-8/Wrestler-turned-movie+star+Dwayne+Johnson+leads+RACE+TO+WITCH+MOUNTAIN+to+a+%2424.25M+opening%2C+while+WATCHMEN+plummets+71%25%212009-03-14+05%3A46%3A03Steve+Mason

WITCH MOUNTAIN could “Rock” WATCHMEN for surprising weekend win!

One of the coolest ways to use the social networking platform Twitter is to find out what people are thinking, saying and Twittering about in real time. Here’s a small sampling of Tweets from the opening weekend of Watchmen (Warner Bros).

The Watchmen = Epic fail!

If you haven’t seen The Watchmen yet, I’d urge you to read the graphic novel first. Well, actually, I’d urge you to JUST read the GN. lol.

Watchmen.undecided,confused as superhero film with

very little superhero action.Convoluted story,but overall watchable. My opinion only

I was bored while watching Watchmen

Just got out of Watchmen…. Ouch, would spend the 9 quid on – can’t even find the humour, brain switched off 1 hour into the 3- BIG YAWN (more…)

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Posted Mar 11th 2009 at 9:53 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Media Criticism, Reviews, Steve Mason's Box Office | 7804642 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/11/final-tracking-2/WITCH+MOUNTAIN+could+%E2%80%9CRock%E2%80%9D+WATCHMEN+for+surprising+weekend+win%212009-03-12+04%3A53%3A12Steve+Mason

WATCHMEN down 24% Saturday to a likely $55.65M 3-day; Is word-of-mouth “killing the masks?”

According to studio estimates, Watchmen (Warner Bros) will finish the weekend with an estimated $55.65M. After seizing $4.5M in Thursday midnight business, there were rumblings about $29M on opening day and an opening weekend of $70M+. When the picture scored a lesser but still good $25.2M Friday, weekend estimates were revised downward. As of Saturday morning, my projection was for $57M, and Watchmen came in even lower than that.

Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s densely written graphic novel tumbled 24% from Friday to Saturday. Granted, midnight shows took a lot of steam out of the movie, but that’s a pretty significant fall given that the Males 25 Plus demo – a key one for this film – were not likely part of the Thursday fanboy crowd and, despite the current unemployment rate, were working on Friday.

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Posted Mar 8th 2009 at 11:14 am in Entertainment, Featured Story, Media Criticism, Steve Mason's Box Office | 7521075 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/08/studioestimates/WATCHMEN+down+24%25+Saturday+to+a+likely+%2455.65M+3-day%3B+Is+word-of-mouth+%22killing+the+masks%3F%222009-03-08+19%3A14%3A15Steve+Mason

WATCHMEN with $25.2M opening day, but “ticking downward,” now targeting $57M 3-day & $145M domestic!

“Who is watching the Watchmen?” Just about everyone…or so it seems.

The brand new film adaptation of the classic graphic comic Watchmen is a hit of monstrous proportions on its opening weekend, but not everyone loves it. In fact, not only is there a prominent character named Rohrschach (played by Oscar nominee Jackie Earle Haley), the film itself is serving as a Rohrschach Test for critics, fanboys and the broader public.

The Zack Snyder-directed $120M epic started with $4.5M in Thursday midnight business which is outstanding. There was no way for Watchmen to approach the $18.5M midnight start for lat summer’s The Dark Knight. First off, it is March and not the middle of summer blockbuster season. Kids have school. People are working. These are not the lazy days of July when it is easier for many to see a movie at midnight on Thursday, and hit the office late on Friday. The other factor is the movie’s rating. This is an R-rated movie, not PG-13 like The Dark Knight. (more…)

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Posted Mar 6th 2009 at 10:32 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Media Criticism, Steve Mason's Box Office | 7469826 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/06/estimates-7/WATCHMEN+with+%2425.2M+opening+day%2C+but+%22ticking+downward%2C%22+now+targeting+%2457M+3-day+%26amp%3B+%24145M+domestic%212009-03-07+06%3A32%3A56Steve+Mason

It will take more than WATCHMEN writer Moore’s curse to keep Zack Snyder’s adaptation from topping $60M!

Watchmen (Warner Bros) has followed a long and winding road, passing through the hands of some remarkable directors like Terry Gilliam (The Fisher King), Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler) and Paul Greengrass (United 93), before landing in the lap of the mastermind behind 2004’s stunning re-imagining of Dawn of the Dead and 2007’s March blockbuster 300. From the moment that the first trailer for Zack Snyder’s $120M comic book adaptation made its debut at midnight screenings of The Dark Knight in July, this has been a sure-fire mega-hit. Now, the big screen version of the 1986 graphic novel will be unleashed on Friday.

WATCHMEN writer Alan Moore has reportedly placed a curse on the movie

The original comic was written by Alan Moore and the lead artist was Dave Gibbons. The collaborators have radically different views of Snyder’s film adaptation.The latter has publicly expressed confidence in Snyder. Gibbons reveals to Wired magazine that at one point Joel Silver owned the film rights to Watchmen and that the producer was insistent that Arnold Schwarzenegger should play Dr. Manhattan. (That would have potentially been an unintentional disaster movie.)

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Posted Mar 4th 2009 at 11:23 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 7299852 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/04/watchmen-tracking/It+will+take+more+than+WATCHMEN+writer+Moore%27s+curse+to+keep+Zack+Snyder%27s+adaptation+from+topping+%2460M%212009-03-05+07%3A23%3A11Steve+Mason

RAINING CASH IN HOLLYWOOD!: The stock market is down, but the movie business is up 14% over ‘08 and 23% over ‘07!

Hollywood is off to a staggering, record-breaking start in 2009 led by Clint Eastwood’s most successful wide opening ever, a French action import and a chubby guy on a Segway. Hot on the heels of the biggest January in history with over $1 billion in domestic sales, February has exceeded $750M in the US. The industry’s all-time best January followed by the all-time biggest February on the books puts total domestic box office for the year at almost $1.8 billion.

“Everything is working.” That’s what one studio exec told me today. “With the exception of the Jonas Brothers, it seems like almost every release is out-performing expectations.” January 2009 has gone down as the all-time 8th-best month in modern box office history. It started with excellent holiday holdovers. Six movies, technically released in 2008, did major chunks of their business after New Year’s.

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, adam sandler, alexandre desplat, anthony dod mantle
Posted Mar 3rd 2009 at 12:54 am in Entertainment, News, Steve Mason's Box Office | 7129826 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/03/2009-records/RAINING+CASH+IN+HOLLYWOOD%21%3A+The+stock+market+is+down%2C+but+the+movie+business+is+up+14%25+over+%2708+and+23%25+over+%2707%212009-03-03+08%3A54%3A15Steve+Mason

They’re teen movie stars that wear purity rings: JONAS BROTHERS: THE 3-D CONCERT EXPERIENCE should easily win the weekend with a possible $30M!

Tween girls will unite this weekend and transform Kevin, Joe and Nick into box office stars. Last year, Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour ignited a box office wildfire with a $31.1M opening weekend despite only 683 3-D-equipped screens. Now Disney has the teen stars of the moment, Jonas Brothers, in the same sort of concert movie vehicle. The difference is that Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience will open on about twice as many screens.

The precise number of 3-D screens is difficult to pinpoint. Last month, Lionsgate confirmed 1,033 Digital 3-D runs for the remake of My Bloody Valentine, and although I have not been able to confirm a hard number for Coraline (Focus), it was probably close to 1,100. Now, as the expensive $100K per screen digital conversion creeps along for exhibitors, Jonas Brothers could reach 1,200 3-D screens. Unlike Coraline, the new Disney concert movie will not be boosted by traditional 2-D 35MM playdates.

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, a.r. rahman, academy award, adam sandler
Posted Feb 25th 2009 at 10:43 pm in Celebrity News, Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 6738275 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/02/25/finaltracking-2/They%27re+teen+movie+stars+that+wear+purity+rings%3A+JONAS+BROTHERS%3A+THE+3-D+CONCERT+EXPERIENCE+should+easily+win+the+weekend+with+a+possible+%2430M%212009-02-26+06%3A43%3A59Steve+Mason

Final Oscar Predix: SLUMDOG, Rourke, Streep, Ledger, Cruz; BEN BUTTON could win just 2 of 13!

I am forecasting a coronation for Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) at Sunday’s Academy Awards. My final predictions call for Slumdog wins in 8 of the 9 categories it is competing in including Best Picture and Best Director: Danny Boyle. The only place I think it will fail is in the Sound Mixing category where The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) may trump it.

Slumdog Millionaire is about to win the Hollywood's Grand Prize

The “Battle Royale” of the night is Mickey Rouke from The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) vs. Sean Penn in Milk (Focus) in the Best Actor category. There have been two ties in major categories in Academy Award history. The first was in 1932 when Frederic March in Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde shared Best Actor with Wallace Beery for The Champ. (March had one more vote, but in that era, any finish within 3 votes was rules a tie.) Then in 1968, Katherine Hepburn for The Lion In Winter and Barbara Streisand for Funny Girl tied for Best Actress. If there was any justice, Rourke and Penn would share the award. In any other year, either of them would be a lock. Forced to make a pick, I’m going with Rourke.

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Tags: a.r. rahman, academy awards, Amy Adams, andrew stanton, anne hathaway
Posted Feb 22nd 2009 at 1:01 am in Celebrity News, Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 5711436 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/02/22/final-oscar-pix/Final+Oscar+Predix%3A+SLUMDOG%2C+Rourke%2C+Streep%2C+Ledger%2C+Cruz%3B+BEN+BUTTON+could+win+just+2+of+13%212009-02-22+09%3A01%3A24Steve+Mason

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE is the toast of the UK, winning 7 BAFTA Awards including Best Picture!

There was not a great deal of drama surrounding this year’s British Academy of Film & Television Arts Awards, commonly known as the BAFTA Awards. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) is a movie with deep roots in the UK. Director Danny Boyle was born in Manchester, England, lead actor Dev Patel is the star of the popular British television series Skins, and the movie is a gigantic hit in the British Isles with an impressive $20.6M (US dollars) in box office for Pathe, since its release there on January 6.

BAFTA Winner Mickey Rourke

The two major uncertainties entering Sunday’s ceremony were whether Kate Winslet, twice-nominated for Best Actress, would split her own vote and miss out on her second BAFTA Award and who would prevail in the Sean Penn-Mickey Rourke battle for Best Actor. Aside from that, it seemed like a Slumdog sweep, and that’s exactly how it played out.

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Tags: a.r. rahman, academy awards, alexandre desplat, andrew stanton, anthony dod mantle
Posted Feb 8th 2009 at 2:04 pm in Celebrity News, Entertainment, News, Steve Mason's Box Office | 4539010 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/02/08/baftas/SLUMDOG+MILLIONAIRE+is+the+toast+of+the+UK%2C+winning+7+BAFTA+Awards+including+Best+Picture%212009-02-08+22%3A04%3A55Steve+Mason