The film, set to bow at the Starz Denver Film Festival this weekend and already airing on Showtime, does offer more than just those recycled themes. It’s an occasionally fascinating look into the modern actor’s mindset as well as the anger the general public feels when they hear celebrities pontificating on events of the day.

Director Barry Levinson

We’re also given a peek at the passions driving some celebrities to speak out on the issues. Yet the film is emblematic of Hollywood productions which strain to achieve balance but come up mostly empty.

The bulk of the film features liberal celebrities from the Creative Coalition, a nonpartisan group, maneuvering around last year’s Democratic National Convention in Denver.

The group itself may not choose sides, but we see plenty of footage of its actors beaming as President-elect Barack Obama speaks. And when some of those celebrities pack their bags for the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis, they look as if they’re preparing for a funeral.

“She’s All That” actress Rachael Leigh Cook is forlorn when she realizes Republicans will be invading her Minnesota hometown. “But what can you do?” she asks with a shrug.

Maybe, if you’re part of a nonpartisan coalition, you go and learn what people who disagree with you think about politics.

Levinson, who conducts one interview wearing an Obama knit cap, complains about the rise of flash over substance while watching Gov. Sarah Palin’s appearance at the RNC. But he has nothing to say about similar hoopla surrounding Sen. Obama or his throng of admirers.

“Poliwood” takes a half-hearted stab at defending actors for being out of touch elites who don’t understand how reg’lar folks think. Levinson lets actor Matthew Modine shares memories of back breaking work of his youth and the pride he felt in a job well done.

That’s wonderful, and it’s likely many of today’s stars worked just as hard – or harder – before fame and fortune came calling. But living in a cocoon of fame and wealth for an extended period can change a person’s perspective, sometimes radically.

When Jennifer Lopez sang, “I”m still Jenny from the block,” was anyone buying it?

A few celebrities acquit themselves well regarding their right to speak out, including Susan Sarandon, Ellen Burstyn and Modine.

Aging political troubadours David Crosby and Stephen Still ramble on in platitudes that add nothing to the debate and only support those who say celebrities should keep their yaps shut.

“Poliwood’s” focus keeps shifting, robbing whatever potency the film essay might have had otherwise. Levinson detours into a conversation about how the mainstream news is getting too bogged down in tabloid fare and often exploits story lines that tell us little about the way government works.

The film also takes time to savage Joe the Plumber for overstepping his bounds by acting as a war correspondent for PJTV. And yet the entire film is about celebrities who, one could argue, overstep their bounds every day by talking about matters they’re not well versed in.

A few scenes prove pure dynamite, like watching pollster Frank Luntz gently lecture some Coalition members about the harsh words they use in trying to sway the masses. Before Luntz can finish, actors Josh Lucas and Gloria Reuben nearly jump out of their seats, both recoiling at being told their methods might not be effective.

Even better, listen as actress Lynn Whitfield shares why she won’t be joining her Coalition peers at the RNC. “I don’t have the skill to communicate with people who have hurt my feelings so deeply,” she says.

Anne Hathaway makes a valid point that often journalists will ask an actor about a political topic even though the actor had no intention of of discussing the subject.

We almost get a reason to applaud the celebrities and their outspoken ways when director Spike Lee nails New York Governor David Paterson with a tough, but fair, question about city school funding. Paterson can’t come up with an answer, but the liberals in attendance, including Lee, simply laugh at the governor’s awkwardness and the question is dropped.

The Creative Coalition co-produced “Poliwood” but the film does it few favors even if it proves intermittently enlightening.

My friend Kitty sent me this link to an article about the ongoing saga of turning the 1,100 page book “Atlas Shrugged,” by Ayn Rand, into a feature film:

Rand’s popular but polarizing book — it’s derided by many literary critics but has a huge public following — tells the story of Dagny Taggart, a railroad executive trying to keep her corporation competitive in the face of what she perceives as a lack of innovation and individual responsibility.

A number of stars have expressed serious interest in playing the lead role of Taggart. Angelina Jolie previously had been reported as a candidate to play the strong female character, but the list is growing and now includes Charlize Theron, Julia Roberts and Anne Hathaway.

Although it was written a half-century ago, producers say that the book’s themes of individualism resonate in the era of Obama, government bailouts and stimulus packages — making this the perfect moment to bring the 1,100-page novel to the big screen.

Rumors about Angelina Jolie’s interest in the film have been swirling about for some time, but Charlize Theron? Julia Roberts? Anne Hathaway? What’s up with that? Let’s take a look at these lovely ladies and their left-wing credentials, talented actresses though they may be:

Julia Roberts: During a fundraiser for Al Gore’s run for the presidency back in 2000, she explained her preference for Democrats over Republicans by saying the word “Republican” is right between “reptile” and “repugnant” in the dictionary. Tee hee. She also described former President George W. Bush as “embarrassing. He’s not my president and he never will be either.”

Back in 2006, Roberts was also in favor of California’s Proposition 87, which would have taxed oil to fund alternative energy research. (It ultimately failed at the voting booth.) I guess growing your own kale stamps out the carbon footprint of traveling on private jets. 

Charlize Theron: According to this bright light, Americans are just as oppressed as the good folks of Cuba. From a CNN interview:

Theron: No, but I do remember not too long ago some people getting fired from their jobs in television because they spoke up on how they felt about the war.

CNN: Do you think the lack of freedoms in Cuba are parallel to the lack of freedoms in the United States?

Theron: Well, I would, I would compare those two, yes, definitely.

Has she ever heard Dwight Schultz’s story of being called a “Reagan a**hole” by director Bruce Paltrow at Schultz’s audition for the television show St. Elsewhere? My guess would be no. Theron, like Roberts, didn’t have nice things to say about Bush either, calling “him irresponsible and taking exception with politicians in their very expensive suits and air-conditioned buildings, telling us how our soldiers are doing in Iraq. “I wonder what she thinks of her man Obama in his expensive designer suits in a wintertime toasty-warm Oval Office, telling us how our soldiers are doing in Afghanistan.

Anne Hathaway: The young woman whose road to stardom began by playing a princess of a fictional European country, is really concerned about the disparity of wealth in America. “Right now, the disparity between the uber-rich and the uber-poor, it’s worrying and it’s not getting better. We need to focus on a way to just get our economy back, to get it back on track.” By the way, Hathaway earns $5 million per film, and might be on her way to asking for $8 million. Maybe she’s talking about the disparity between her salary and that of Angelina Jolie, who earns $15 million per film…

And what about her support for Obama during the election? Was it due to his policies, his experience, his ability to get the job done? Not so much: “He inspires us to be the best Americans we can be.” Wow, that’s deep. I understand so much more now.

Frankly, out of the three, Hathaway seems to be the most obvious choice, as Theron and Roberts are just a little too long in the tooth to play the young Dagney. Darn it, there I go again with the non-PC stuff. According to the “Today Show,” 40 is the new 20. Sorry.

What’s so confusing here is that Ayn Rand’s writings reflected views that are antithetical to those held by left-wing libs, especially many in Hollywood:

Politically, Rand wanted to provide liberal capitalism with a moral foundation, to take on the prevalent notion that communism was a noble if unworkable idea while the free market was a necessary evil best suited to flawed human nature. In this she succeeded brilliantly (even if the notion that socialism failed because it has never been properly tried is still alive and well among the intelligentsia). Her arguments against “compassionate” redistribution–and persecution–of wealth have lost none of their power in the decades after they were made.

Perhaps they think the script will ultimately “improve” the book to match current politically correct views on life and society.

If these ladies are serious about being in the film, they’d best start reading the book now. Maybe they’ll be finished with it by 2010, which is when producers Howard and Karen Baldwin are hoping to start filming.

As Kitty said in her e-mail, “You’d think they wouldn’t be caught dead in a ‘conservative’ movie. Which only goes to prove that Hollywood lefties do have their price.” Seeing as the movie’s projected budget is currently in the $50 million range but could go up, I can see her point.

Julia Roberts and Clive Owen star in the fun, smart DUPLICITY, from writer/director Tony Gilroy

Roberts’ last starring role was in 2003’s Mona Lisa Smile ($63.8M domestic), and since then she has become a full-time Mom. Overall, she has 8 movies on her resume that have reached $100M in the US with her as a lead (I’m not including the Ocean’s Eleven franchise). Her most successful string of movies started in 1997 with My Best Friend’s Wedding ($127.1M cume) and ended with her Oscar winning performance in Erin Brockovich ($125.6M cume). During that span, she starred in 6 movies, generating an average of $115M in domestic box office.

Katherine Heigl is one of the actresses getting all of Roberts' old ingenue roles

But, she has entered the “danger zone” for any actress. All the types of roles that Julia used to turn into $100M blockbusters are going to Katherine Heigl, Kate Hudson, Anne Hathaway, Reese Witherspoon and Elizabeth Banks. What’s a 40+ woman to do?

DUPLICITY writer/director Tony Gilroy

She should be looking for smartly-written, age appropriate movies with some pedigree (co-stars, director, etc.). That is exactly what Duplicity is. Writer/director Tony Gilroy wrote the Jason Bourne movies, and his last film, Michael Clayton, was nominated for 7 Academy Awards. The result is an excellent movie. Clever, smart and charming, and Julia Roberts isn’t trying to pass herself off as an ingénue. The movie was expected to open to about $15M, and that’s exactly what it did, and still, bloggers write things like Julia’s Comeback: Audiences Say Go Back and people question if she’s still a draw.

For comparison sake, here is, to the best of my knowledge, the all-time box office champs for movies starring 40+ actresses above the title.

Glenn Close as Alex Forrest in FATAL ATTRACTION grabbed over $156M

ALL-TIME TOP 15 GROSSING MOVIES WITH A 40+ FEMALE LEAD
1. Fatal Attraction – Glenn Close (40) – $156.6M cume
2. Sex & the City – Sarah Jessica Parker (43) – $152.6M cume
3. Mamma Mia! – Meryl Streep (59) – $144.1M cume
4. 101 Dalmations – Glenn Close (49) – $136.2M cume
5. The Devil Wears Prada – (57) – $124.7M cume
6. Something’s Gotta Give – Diane Keaton (57) – $124.7M cume
7. On Golden Pond – Katherine Hepburn (74) – $119.2M cume
8. Terms of Endearment – Shirley MacLaine (49) – $108.4M cume
9. First Wives Club – Diane Keaton (50), Goldie Hawn (41), Bette Midler (51) – $105.5M cume
10. The Client – Susan Sarandon (48) – $92.1M cume
11. Flightplan – Jody Foster (43) – $89.7M cume
12. Moonstruck – Cher (41) – $80.6M cume
13. The Bridges of Madison County – Meryl Streep (46) – $71.5M cume
14. Bird On Wire – Goldie Hawn (45) – $70.9M cume
15. 102 Dalmations – Glenn Close (53) – $66.9M cume

In other words, it is a longshot for a mature woman to open a film in a big way. Last year, Hollywood gave us Mamma Mia! and Sex & The City, but they were both based on popular source material. The only other movies that starred 40+ actress to generate significant receipts were Australia ($49.5M cume) starring Nicole Kidman (40), Nim’s Island ($48M cume) featuring Jody Foster (46) and Nights in Rodanthe ($41.8M) with a 43-year-old Diane Lane.

Meryl Streep had Universal Studios execs jumping for joy with MAMMA MIA!

Given the nature of the business, is it really fair to say, “Julia Roberts can’t open a movie anymore?” The reality is that it is very rare that any woman north of 40 “opens” a movie, and let’s face it, ABBA opened Mamma Mia! and HBO created the success of Sex & The City.

In fact, I would argue that Duplicity is an excellent choice for the former $20M-per-movie star. You could argue that it is quite similar to Adam’s Rib, the movie that Katherine Hepburn starred in at the age of 41, a romantic comedy featuring she and Spencer Tracy as husband and wife operating, as lawyers on opposite sides of a big case. Duplicity is a very good modern-day parallel, not a classic like Adam’s Rib, but very good.

Kyra Sedgwick has scored big with THE CLOSER on TNT

Increasingly, the best roles for women 40+ are on television. Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer), Glenn Close (Damages), Holly Hunter (Saving Grace), Edie Falco (The Sopranos), Vanessa Williams (Ugly Betty) and Sally Field (Brothers & Sisters) have all found meaningful work on the small screen, but with two young kids, the TV series grind isn’t likely in the cards right now for Roberts right now.

Based on the $14.5M weekend and the fact that Females 25 Plus don’t often rush out to see a movie on opening weekend, I think it’s reasonable to project a $40M-$45M domestic gross – maybe even $50M. Michael Clayton only reached $49M in the US, so is Julia’s drawing power that much inferior to George Clooney?

In my mind, Duplicity is a creative success and, although the jury is out on commercial viability, it is by no means a disaster. Good for Julia Roberts that she has devoted herself to full-time motherhood. I’m glad she chose a project with an IQ, and I hope she continues making smart career choices. Her success will be of service to other actresses in Hollywood – those who are 40+ now, or will be someday.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

I am an unabashed lover of the acting craft. I see virtually every movie, large and small, that passes through the US marketplace, and, taking nothing away from Sean Penn, Kate Winslet, Penelope Cruz and Heath Ledger, not all of 2008’s best performances have been recognized. I’m not going to be obvious here. Clint Eastwood was snubbed for Gran Torino, but he received lots of acclaim for the role including being named Best Actor by the National Board of Review. My goal is to highlight 10 performances from last year that have received virtually no acclaim in the US. Many of these roles can be found in hardly-seen, under-appreciated movies that came and went without much notice. Each and every one of these movies deserve a spot in your Netflix (or Blockbuster) cue.

My list is by no means definitive. If you have a favorite performance from 2008 that sticks with you, this is a great place to tell the world. There were 20 actors nominated on Oscar night, but there is a lot of great work that hasn’t been recognized with a walk down the red carpet.

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1. JEAN DUJARDIN, 0SS 117: CAIRO NEST OF SPIES
This was the funniest movie of the year for me. OSS 117, a reboot of a previously successful franchise, was a hit in France, but generated only about $300,000 in very limited engagements in the US. Dujardin is a James Bond-style secret agent who bumbles his way across the middle east with the panache of Sean Connery and the comic physicality of Peter Sellers. He was nominated for Best Actor at the Cesar Awards (French Oscars), but almost nobody saw Nest of Spies here. The sequel OSS 117: Rio Ne Repond Plus is due later this year. Steve Martin, who badly resurrected the Pink Panther franchise, should watch this movie with a deep sense of shame.

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2. PATRICIA CLARKSON, ELEGY
Sold about $3.5M in tickets at American box offices. In many ways, Penelope Cruz’s performance here is more courageous and luminous than her winning turn in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, but I am choosing to focus on Patricia Clarkson who brings a heartfelt honest to her small role. I am always impressed when a woman is unafraid to appear nude in a film, especially if it gives us a window into that character’s soul. Clarkson is close to 50 and her character is maintaining a purely sexual relationship with Ben Kingsley’s David Kepesh. She has no illusions about being young or being in love. She is settling for the occasional comfort of a tumble with this man, and sadly, her constant career demands make a permanent loving relationship a faraway idea.

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3. BILL IRWIN, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Loading a dishwasher has never been so dramatic. Primarily a theatre actor (he played George alongside Kathleen Turner in the 2005 Broadway revival of Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf), he does something very different in Jonathan Demme’s documentary-style Rachel Getting Married. He is the buttoned-down, peacemaker who is hiding a shattered emotional interior that comes forward in a remarkable scene in which he demonstrates how to correctly load a dishwasher. Oscar nominee Anne Hathaway and Golden Globe nominee Rosemarie DeWitt were both excellent, but Irwin’s performance has stayed with me in a meaningful way.

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4. ELSA ZYLBERSTEIN, I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG
This extraordinary French film from the masterful Phillippe Claudel features the luminescent-but-prickly Kristin Scott Thomas, who was nominated for the Golden Globe for Best Actress – Drama and many other awards. Elsa Zylberstein portrays the fully accepting sister who loves without any strings attached. She unwinds the mystery about why her sister committed a horrible act, and simultaneously remains patient and receptive. She allows for as happy an ending as this film can possible allow. Her soulful beauty softens the rough edges of Kristin Scott Thomas’ Juliette.

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5. CHIWETEL EJIOFOR, REDBELT
David Mamet does a movie about Mixed Martial Arts. Go figure. The master of dialogue practices jujitsu in real-life, and now he has found a way to incorporate it into one of his films. Chiwetel Ejiofer portrays Mike Terry whose mantra is that “There is always an escape.” Some Hollywood types, played with the appropriate dollops of sleaze and smarminess by Tim Allen and Joe Mantegna, put him in an impossible situation, and he must find the escape. A buff Ejiofor delivers physically (easy to buy him as a badass), and he has a rigid sense of honor. His scene with Emily Mortimer in which she exorcises a past demon in worth the price of admission.

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6. KARINA FERNANDEZ, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
I love Happy-Go-Lucky. Writer/Director Mike Leigh takes a full year rehearsing and improving with his actors in order to finalize the script. He hit solid gold with Poppy, played by Sally Hawkins, who won the Golden Globe and, I assume, narrowly missed an Oscar nomination for Best Actress. The same can be said for Eddie Marsan as the anal retentive driving instructor Scott. But my shout-out here goes British stage actress Karina Fernandez who, in two short scenes, demonstrates her rigid and unbending love for the flamenco and that those very steps may be the only thing keeping her from becoming emotionally unhinged.

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7. HAAZ SLEIMAN, THE VISITOR
So much of the lightness in Oscar nominee Richard Jenkins’ turn in The Visitor is his reaction to the joyful drumming of Haaz Sleiman’s Tarek Khalil character. His co-star Danai Jekesai Gurira is also wonderful, but something tells me that the Lebanese-born Sleiman will be heard from again. After drumming with reckless abandon at one point, Tarek realizes that he is going to be late and says his girlfriend will kill him because he’s on Arab time, “It means I’m late by an hour. All Arabs are late by an hour, It’s genetic. We can’t help it.”

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8. CANTINCA UNTARU, THE FALL
The weirdest, most fantastical movie of 2008 was directed by Tarsem Singh, whose best-known previous film was the strikingly visual horror pic The Cell, starring Jennifer Lopez. This is a fable told by an injured, drug-addicted stuntman in the early 20th century who befriends a little girl. Lee Pace (brilliant in the 2003 film Soldier’s Girl and also seen in ABC’s short-lived Pushing Daisies) weaves a spectacular fantasy that plays out in the imagination of a little girl played by novice actor Cantinca Untaru. I love this movie, and I’m not alone. Roger Ebert wrote, “You might want to see this for no other reason than because it exists. There will never be another like it.” Part Wizard of Oz. Part Lord of the Rings. 100% original. And it all works because of the innocence and spontaneity of a chIld actress before the camera for the first time.

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9. KATE DEL CASTILLO, UNDER THE SAME MOON
She is absolutely beautiful and has a number of popular telenovelas to her credit including El Derecho De Nacer, Ramona, La Mentira and Imperio De Crystal before mading the jump to American television with the 2002 PBS series American Family from creator Gregory Nava (Selena, Mi Familia). This heartbreaking story of a little Mexican boy who decides to try to make it over the border to find his mother, working as a nanny and sending money home, is sweet and pulls at the heartstrings, and this Patricia Riggen movie also features a strong performance from Mexican comic actor Eugenio Derbez.

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10. JASON BUTLER HARNER, CHANGELING
I did not like Changeling. I am a huge fan of Eastwood the director, and, for me, Angelina Jolie’s performance was one-note, Jeffrey Donovan from TV’s Burn Notice was doing a 1930’s rat-ta-ta-tat dialect while Oscar nominee Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) seemed to be playing it present day. As for the art direction, it’s been done so much better in classics like Chinatown and more recent noir like L.A. Confidential. But, the reason to see the movie is Jason Butler Harner as serial killer Gordon Stewart Northcott. He conveys a certain cavalier smarminess when confronted with his evil deeds. He enjoys the infamy he has achieved and uses it to manipulate and torture Jolie’s Christine Collins. Unsettling and unforgettable.

HONORARY MENTION
-in no particular order-

MILA KUNIS, FORGETTING SARAH MARSHALL

MISTY UPHAM, FROZEN RIVER

DON CHEADLE, TRAITOR

DAVID KROSS, THE READER

REBECCA HALL, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA

JEFFREY WRIGHT, CADILLAC RECORDS

EVAN RACHEL WOOD, THE WRESTLER

DANNY MCBRIDE, PINEAPPLE EXPRESS

DOMINIQUE PINON, ROMAN DE GARE

TILDA SWINTON, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON

PAUL RUDD, ROLE MODELS

RICKY GERVAIS, GHOST TOWN

ALAN RICKMAN, BOTTLE SHOCK

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

The credit should go to producers Lawrence Mark and Bill Condon, although I can see why the streamlined show is a bit of a Rorschach test for viewers. If you love movies, and especially actors, last night’s show was respectful and enlightening. If you are inclined to dislike awards shows and actors, then the telecast would be pretty dreary.

I loved the multi-presenter set-up for the four acting categories. Each nominee was treated as a winner with a past winner talking about what made their performance one of the year’s best. It was cool to see people like Sophia Loren, Robert DeNiro, Joel Grey, Eva Marie Saint and Ben Kingsley take part in the presentation of major awards. (I had the opportunity to interview Kingsley when Schindler’s List was released, and he is a student of acting. He described another actor’s performance as “letting the monster out of the box too soon,” and it stuck with me.)

Next up for Hugh Jackman is X-Men Origins: Wolverine set for release May 1

As for Hugh Jackman as host, he was very different from the string of comedians we have seen in the job. He didn’t feel the need to riff on current events or politics, instead playing it as a fan, and the two musical numbers were hit-and-miss. I was really worried about the opening number until the Anne Hathaway as Nixon finale. It was a bit strained and a little desperate. The second number created by Baz Luhrmann (Moulin Rouge!) worked better with Beyonce, the High School Musical kids and the duo from Mamma Mia!.

Overall, in the modern post-Bob Hope, post-Johnny Carson era, I rank Jackman in the upper tier of those that have tried their hand at the impossible job. He’s well below Billy Crystal and Steve Martin, but much better than John Stewart, Whoopi Goldberg and Chris Rock. It’s apples and oranges really, because Jackman is so different.

As for the structure of the show, I enjoyed the layout of the broadcast from screenwriting to cinematography to post-production and music. One of the reasons the show came in at less than 3:30 is that presenters handled multiple categories. Steve Martin and Tina Fey were an inspired pairing. The same can be said for Natalie Portman with a Joaquin Phoenix-style Ben Stiller.

The two hilights of the show? First, there was Judd Apatow’s inspired mini-feature starring Seth Rogen and James Franco in their Pineapple Express characters, randomly recruiting two-time Oscar winning DP Janusz Kaminski to be part of the fun. Hilarious. The other high point was the way that the three Oscar nominated songs, winner Jai Ho and nominee O Saya from Slumdog and Peter Gabriel’s Down to Earth from WALL-E were blended together seamlessly with a mix of Indian dancers and African rhythms and John Legend stepping in on vocals for Gabriel.

Danny Boyle refrencing Tigger while accepting Best Director was nice. Kate Winslet was more put-together during her speech than she has been at previous awards stops, and Sean Penn was Sean Penn. “You Commie – homo-lovin’ sons of guns,” kind of says it all.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

I can’t imagine how anybody watching could have enjoyed that.  OK, maybe Rob Lowe.

Give Anne Hathaway credit:  her Nixon’s better than Frank Langella’s.

Hugh Jackman’s coming across like an Aussie version of Conan O’Brien and I don’t like it.

This just in:  Obama has just raised the marginal tax rate on slumdog millionaires.

Kate Winslett rules. Mmm…

Slumdog Millionaire is about to win the Hollywood's Grand Prize

The “Battle Royale” of the night is Mickey Rouke from The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) vs. Sean Penn in Milk (Focus) in the Best Actor category. There have been two ties in major categories in Academy Award history. The first was in 1932 when Frederic March in Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde shared Best Actor with Wallace Beery for The Champ. (March had one more vote, but in that era, any finish within 3 votes was rules a tie.) Then in 1968, Katherine Hepburn for The Lion In Winter and Barbara Streisand for Funny Girl tied for Best Actress. If there was any justice, Rourke and Penn would share the award. In any other year, either of them would be a lock. Forced to make a pick, I’m going with Rourke.

Does Streep's upset of Winslet at the SAG Awards set the stage for Meryl's third Oscar win?

Kate Winslet is on the cover of Time Magazine, and she has picked up a wheelbarrow full of hardware during this awards cycle, but a fair number of voters got their fill of Kate when she pulled off the double-win at the Golden Globes. My upset special is Meryl Streep for Doubt (Miramax). This is her 15th career nomination, and she has not won an Academy Award in 25 years (Sophie’s Choice in 1982). That is too long for the most-revered actress in history to go without getting one of those golden guys. Streep won the SAG Award for Lead Actress, and I think she has a real shot here. (It would be a huge upset.)

Finally if my predix hold up, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) would win only 2 Oscars – Best Visual Effects and Best Makeup – despite 13 nominations. That would be the fewest wins for any movie with 13 or more nominations. In fact, 2 wins would be among the poorest showings ever for a movie with 11 nominations or more.

Tied for the biggest shutout in Oscar history; Benjamin Button could win for Makeup and Visual Effects

FEWEST OSCAR WINS FOR MOVIES WITH 11 NOMINATIONS OR MORE
1. The Color Purple – 0 wins (11 nominations)
2. The Turning Point – 0 wins (11 nominations)
3. Chinatown – 1 win (11 nominations)
4. Johnny Belinda – 1 win (12 nominations)
5. Becket – 1 win (12 nominations)
6. Mr. Smith Goes to Washington – 1 win (11 nominations)
7. Pride of the Yankees – 1 win (11 nominations)
8. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 2 wins (13 nominations) – predicted
9. Rebecca – 2 wins (11 nominations)
10. Sergeant York – 2 wins (11 nominations)
11. A Passage To India – 2 wins (11 nominations)
12. Judgement at Nuremberg – 2 wins (11 nominations)

After weeks of obsessive study, relentless debate and intense soul-searching, here are my final Oscar predictions for all 24 categories.

BEST PICTURE
My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Milk

BEST ACTOR
My Pick – Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Consensus Pick – Sean Penn, Milk or Rourke
Dark Horse – None

BEST ACTRESS
My Pick – Meryl Streep, Doubt
Consensus Pick – Kate Winslet, The Reader
Dark Horse – Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My Pick – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Consensus Pick – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dark Horse – None

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My Pick – Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Consensus Pick – Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dark Horse – Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

BEST DIRECTOR
My Pick – Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Milk screenwriter Justin Lance Black

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
My Pick – Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Consensus Pick – Andrew Stanton, WALL-E
Dark Horse – Martin McDonagh, In Bruges

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
My Pick – Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – David Hare, The Reader

BEST EDITING
My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Frost/Nixon

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
My Pick – Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight

BEST ART DIRECTION
My Pick – The Dark Knight
Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse – The Duchess

BEST SOUND MIXING
My Pick – The Dark Knight
Consensus Pick – The Dark Knight
Dark Horse – Slumdog Millionaire

BEST SOUND EDITING
My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – The Dark Knight

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
My Pick – The Duchess
Consensus Pick – The Duchess
Dark Horse – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
My Pick – A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – A. R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
My Pick – Waltz with Bashir
Consensus Pick – Waltz with Bashir
Dark Horse – The Class

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
My Pick – Man on Wire
Consensus Pick – Man On Wire
Dark Horse – Trouble the Water

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
My Pick – WALL-E
Consensus Pick – WALL-E
Dark Horse – Kung Fu Panda

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
My Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse – The Dark Knight

BEST MAKEUP
My Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse – The Dark Knight

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
My Pick – Jaiho from Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Jaiho from Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Peter Gabriel, Down to Earth from WALL-E

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
My Pick – Toyland (Spielzeugland)
Consensus Pick – Auf der Strecke
Dark Horse – The Pig

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
My Pick – Presto
Consensus Pick – La Maison en Petits Cubes
Dark Horse – This Way Up

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
My Pick – The Conscience of Nhem En
Consensus Pick – The Witness
Dark Horse – The Final Inch

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

But, in the world of gambling, you always want to look for value. What are the films and performances with longer odds that would be worth a wager on Sunday? My purpose here is to establish a betting line for each of the six major categories, and then find the value bet in each category.

Question: Who will win Best Picture? Answer: Still, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

BEST PICTURE
Slumdog Millionaire – 1/7
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 6/1
Milk – 20/1
Frost/Nixon – 30/1
The Reader – 50/1

VALUE: I believe that in order to win an Academy Award, passion is required. Slumdog Millionaire has a passionate zeal among its supporters that will make it virtually unbeatable. Although I have made The Curious Case of Benjamin Button the second choice here, I give it very little chance of winning. It has major studio backing (Paramount), and it is certainly well-respected, but it is more admired than loved. So, for me the betting value is in Milk. Aside from Slumdog, it is the movie with the largest bloc of zealous fans. Gay and gay-friendly Academy members love the movie, and in the shadow of the passage of Proposition 8 in California, Milk is worth a $2 bet at the window.

Sean Penn's portrayal of Harvey Milk is now a decided underdog to Mickey Rourke

BEST ACTOR
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler – 1/2
Sean Penn, Milk – 3/2
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon – 10/1
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 25/1
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor – 35/1

VALUE: After colorful, rambling, verging on obscene acceptance speeches at both the Golden Globes and the BAFTA Awards, Mickey Rourke is the true favorite for Best Actor. Rourke has also campaigned hard, paying the paying the price for that Golden Globe win by schmoozing each and every one of those 95 Hollywood Foreign Press members. Penn just doesn’t play that awards campaign game at all, but actors love him. The only real betting value here is Penn, who still has a chance of winning his second Oscar.

It has been 25 years since Mery Streep won an Oscar

BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, The Reader – 1/2
Meryl Streep, Doubt – 5/2
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married – 4/1
Angelina Jolie, Changeling – 25/1
Melissa Leo, Frozen River – 35/1

VALUE: It is Kate Winslet’s year. Just ask anybody. She has two outstanding awards-caliber performances in The Reader and Revolutionary Road. If rules would have allowed, she might have been nominated twice in the Best Actress category. She’s 0-fer-5 lifetime at the Academy Awards and deserves to win, but she can be beaten. Jolie and Leo have no shot. Hathaway is the 3rd choice in the field, and a win is not inconceivable, but Streep is the value bet. The undisputed greatest living actress has not won an Oscar in 25 years, despite the fact that this is her eleventh nomination since winning for Sophie’s Choice in 1983.

Ledger is a lock

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heather Ledger, The Dark Knight – 1/100
Josh Brolin, Milk – 20/1
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder – 25/1
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt – 30/1
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road – 50/1

VALUE: None. There is no value in this category. Heath Ledger will win Best Supporting Actor posthumously. If you are unfamiliar with how odds work, 1/100 means that you would have to bet $100 to win just $1, and even then, it would be tough to get anybody to take your wager.

Marisa Tomei's "stripper with a heart of gold" in THE WRESTLER may earn her a second Oscar

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona – 1/2
Viola Davis, Doubt – 3/1
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler – 5/1
Amy Adams, Doubt – 12/1
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 15/1

VALUE: This is, by far, the most competitive of the major awards. The longest shot in the field, Taraji P. Henson from Ben Button, is only a 15-1 longshot. Woody Allen has a knack for helping actresses win in this category (ask Dianne Wiest , who scored for both Hannah and Her Sisters and Bullets Over Broadway). That points to a win for Penelope Cruz, who was raw and sexy as Maria Elena in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Davis can certainly win for her fleeting-but-powerful turn in Doubt, but my value bet is Marisa Tomei. Her first win, for My Cousin Vinny, was viewed by many as a fluke. In fact, there is an urban legend that she really didn’t win. The story goes that Jack Palance, who presented that year, read the wrong name (the legend claims that Vanessa Redgrave was the actual winner for Howard’s End). In reality, there is no doubt that Tomei is an Oscar winning actress, who gives her career-best performance in The Wrestler.

The uncompromising David Fincher

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire – 1/7
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 6/1
Gus Van Sant, Milk – 20/1
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon – 25/1
Stephen Daldry, The Reader – 35/1

VALUE: Nobody is going to beat Danny Boyle, but if I was looking for a strong value bet, I would wager on Fincher. He is a visionary with some amazing movies on his resume, including Se7en, Fight Club and Zodiac. He has worked with countless actors and industry types, and his uncompromising nature makes him tough to like, but easy to respect. If there were an upset in this category, Fincher is the only guy who could pull it off.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.

Then in July of 2007, New Line grabbed an almost identical $27.47M with the opening weekend of the female-skewing Hairspray, translating to $118.87M domestic. Also Enchanted, starring Amy Adams, was a hit for Disney over the holidays reaching $127.8M domestic.

In 2008 the game changed forever as women began flexing their box office muscle in a big way. 27 Dresses (Fox), starring Katherine Heigl from Grey’s Anatomy, debuted to $23M in January on its way to a domestic cume of $76.8M. Then came the Digital 3D phenomenon Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds (Disney), which enjoyed a meteoric $31.1M opening 3-day, finishing with a tween-fueled $65.2M. The all-girl comedy Baby Mama (Universal), starring Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, came along in the spring with a nifty $17.4M opening, finishing at $60M.

Then the all female Fantastic Four”  landed – Sarah Jessica Parker, Cynthia Nixon, Kim Cattrall and Kristin Davis – in mega-hit Sex & The City. After a mind-boggling $57M opening weekend, the HBO-to-big screen adaptation kept selling tickets to the tune of $152.2M in the US, becoming 2008’s eleventh-best grossing movie.

In fact, you can make a strong argument that 2008 releases Twilight ($187.9M cume), Mamma Mia ($144.1M cume), Beverly Hills Chihuahua ($94.5M cume) and High School Musical 3 ($90.5M cume) were also chick flick hits. Here’s a complete list of last year’s biggest female-skewing movies.

The cast of TWILIGHT

TOP GROSSING CHICK FLICKS OF 2008
Twilight – $187.9M cume
Sex & the City – $152.6M cume
Mamma Mia! – $144.1M cume
Beverly Hills Chihuahua – $95.5M cume
High School Musical 3: Senior Year – $90.5M cume
27 Dresses – $76.8M cume
Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds – $65.2M cume
Baby Mama – $60.5M cume
The House Bunny – $48,2M cume
Made of Honor – $46M cume
Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 – $44M cume
The Secret Life of Bees – $37.7M cume
Definitely Maybe – $32.2M cume
The Other Boleyn Girl – $26.8M cume
TOTAL 2009 GROSS – $1.14 billion cume

Ginnifer Goodwin, Jennifer Anniston and Jennifer Connolly in HE'S JUST NOT THAT INTO YOU

The first chick flick out of the gates in 2009 was the Kate Hudson-produced Bride Wars (Fox), which should finish its US theatrical engagements with about $60M. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros), based on the bestseller co-written by Sex & the City writers Greg Behrendt and Liz Tuccillo, is holding up extraordinarily well in its second weekend. I am projecting a #2 finish for the 4-day with a possible $23.9M and a new cume just shy of $60M. Meanwhile, Confessions of a Shopaholic, one of this week’s wide openings, seems destined for $20M or so by Tuesday morning.

When all is said and done, 2009 could be an even bigger year for female-geared releases. Here’s how the remainder of the year lays out.

February 20 – Fired Up (Sony)
Two popular high school guys quit football to join the cheerleading team.

February 27 – Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert (Disney)
The title says it all. Every tween girl in America will see it at least once.

March 20 – Sunshine Cleaning (Overture)
Amy Adams (Enchanted) and Emily Blunt (The Devil Wears Prada) star in this Grand Jury Prize nominee from last year’s Sundance Film Festival.

March 27 – The Accidental Husband (Yari Film Group)
Uma Thurman stars as a radio talk show host who dishes out relationship advice.

April 8 – Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney)
The world’s biggest teen star is back on the big screen.

May 1 – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros)
Matthew McConaughey stars as a bachelor who contends with past girlfriends at his brothers wedding. Also starring Jennifer Garner (Catch & Release), Lacey Chabert (Party of Five), Emma Stone (The House Bunny) and pop star Christina Milian.

May 8 – My Life in Ruins (Fox)
Nia Vardallos (My Big Fat Greek Wedding) stars in a romantic yarn set in Greece.

May 8 – Wild Child (Universal)
Emma Watson from Nancy Drew and Hotel for Dogs plays a Malibu princess who must adjust when she is sent to boarding school.

June 12 – The Proposal (Disney)
Rom-com starring Sandra Bullock and Ryan Reynolds.

July 10 - I Love You Beth Cooper (Fox)
Hayden Panettiere (Heroes) shows the nerdy valedictorian of her high school class the night of his life.

Gerard Butler and Katherine Heigl on the set of THE UGLY TRUTH

July 31 – The Ugly Truth (Sony) – Katherine Heigl and Gerard Butler star as television morning show workers who test their relationship theories (and, just a hunch, fall in love).

August 7 – Julie & Julia (Sony)
Nora Ephron is writer/director of this movie based on a Julia Child memoir and starring Meryl Streep as the famed TV chef.

September 25 – Fame (MGM)
A remake of the 1980 film about a New York High School for the Performing Arts.

November 20 – New Moon (Summit)
The sequel to 2008’s mega-hit Twilight.

2-time Oscar winner Daniel Day Lewis and Penelope Cruz in a scene from NINE

November 25 – Nine (Weinstein)
Chicago director Rob Marshall adapts the Tony Award winning Broadway musical starring Oscar winners Daniel Day-Lewis, Judi Dench, Nicole Kidman, Marion Cotillard and Sophia Loren and Academy Award nominees Penelope Cruz and Kate Hudson.

Untitled Nancy Myers Project – December 25
The writer/director behind such chick flicks as Baby Boom and Something’s Gotta Give is set to star Meryl Streep, Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.