‘Wolverine’ claws to $34.75M Friday & Could Scratch Out $86.8M Opening! All-Time 4th-Best Performer for First-Weekend-of-May Summer Kickoff!

In my Final Weekend Tracking column posted on Wednesday, I predicted that X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) would reach $92M on opening weekend, despite soft reviews (now only 38% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). My first fearless forecast of the 2009 summer blockbuster season appears to be close to dead-on (missed by only 5%).

Star-turned-producer Hugh Jackman has scored his second-biggest opening ever and, easily, his biggest as a solo star. Wolverine has mauled the competition with a massive $34.75M opening day (including $5M or so in Thursday midnight sales). That could translate to a 3-day of $86.8M, getting Hollywood’s most lucrative season off to a spectacular start.

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Tags: "Fast & Furious", 17 again, 2-d, 3-d, academy award nominee
Posted May 2nd 2009 at 5:29 am in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 1244022 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/05/02/estimates51/%27Wolverine%27+claws+to+%2434.75M+Friday+%26amp%3B+Could+Scratch+Out+%2486.8M+Opening%21+All-Time+4th-Best+Performer+for+First-Weekend-of-May+Summer+Kickoff%212009-05-02+12%3A29%3A38Steve+Mason

The Summer Blockbuster Season is Set to Start Huge! Spin-Off ‘Wolverine’ could Claw to $92M Opening Weekend!

The great thing about a sequel is that it has a built-in audience. The problem with sequels is that, as the numbers after the title go up, so does the production budget. Very hard to know for sure, but sources have told me that the production budget for X-Men was in the $75M range. X-2: X-Men United may have had a budget of about $110M, while the cost of X-Men: The Last Stand was, in all likelihood, as much as $210M. Why doesn’t it make sense to just churn out X-Men 4?

Look at these numbers.

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Tags: 17 again, 2-d, 3-d, academy award nominee, academy award winner
Posted Apr 29th 2009 at 10:10 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 121806One Commenthttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/04/29/finaltracking51/The+Summer+Blockbuster+Season+is+Set+to+Start+Huge%21+Spin-Off+%27Wolverine%27+could+Claw+to+%2492M+Opening+Weekend%212009-04-30+05%3A10%3A03Steve+Mason

America Loves a Girl-on-Girl Smackdown! Beyonce’s ‘Obsessed’ is the Biggest Last-Weekend-of-April Opener Ever with $11M Friday & a Possible $27.5M 3-Day!

Recording superstar Beyonce Knowles is building a bankable resume for herself as an actress with Sony Screen Gems’ Obsessed as the latest title burnishing her resume. Co-starring the excellent Idris Elba (The Wire), this low budget, PG-13 genre pic has scored a far-above-expectations $11M on Friday, and it will likely reach $27.5M for the weekend. That is the best opening yet for the former Destiny’s Child lead vocalist as an above-the-title star, topping 2003’s The Fighting Temptations and Cadillac Records from late 2008.

Beyonce does battle with the sexy Ali Larter (HEROES) in OBSESSED

OPENINGS FOR BEYONCE MOVIES
1. Austin Powers: Goldmember – $70.3M opening
2. Obsessed – $27.5M opening (projected)
3. Pink Panther (2006) – $20.2M opening
4. Dreamgirls – $14.1M wide break (after a platform start)
5. The Fighting Temptations – $11.7M opening
6. Cadillac Records – $3.4M opening

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Tags: "Fast & Furious", 17 again, 2-d, 3-d, academy award nominee
Posted Apr 24th 2009 at 11:11 pm in Entertainment, Political Humor, Steve Mason's Box Office | 116742No Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/04/24/estimates423/America+Loves+a+Girl-on-Girl+Smackdown%21+Beyonce%27s+%27Obsessed%27+is+the+Biggest+Last-Weekend-of-April+Opener+Ever+with+%2411M+Friday+%26amp%3B+a+Possible+%2427.5M+3-Day%212009-04-25+06%3A11%3A11Steve+Mason

Hollywood’s Worst Release Date: Beyonce’s ‘Obsessed’ Could Edge Disney’s Baby Polar Bears in ‘Earth!’

The final weekend of April has never been Hollywood’s favorite release date. In fact, it is generally considered to be among the worst release dates on the calendar. Whatever opens on the final weekend of April gets absolutely crushed by the official start of the summer blockbuster season on the first weekend of May.

The 4 new wide releases and 1 major specialty release set to debut this weekend will face an onslaught of mega-hits over the next month. How can Obsessed (Sony), Earth (Disney), The Soloist, (Dreamworks/Paramount), Fighting (Rogue) and The Informers (Senator) possibly find an audience with X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) arriving next weekend followed by, in successive weeks, Star Trek (Paramount), Angels & Demons (Sony), the combo of Night at the Museum 2 (Fox) and Terminator: Salvation (Fox) and Disney/Pixar’s Up?

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Tags: "Fast & Furious", 17 again, 2-d, 3-d, academy award nominee
Posted Apr 23rd 2009 at 5:47 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 1145145 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/04/23/finaltracking4-23/Hollywood%27s+Worst+Release+Date%3A+Beyonce%27s+%27Obsessed%27+Could+Edge+Disney%27s+Baby+Polar+Bears+in+%27Earth%21%272009-04-24+00%3A47%3A04Steve+Mason

Hollywood’s Biggest Easter Weekend Ever By As Much As 16%!: ‘Hannah Montana’ Down 40% on Saturday, But Still Becomes All-Time #2 Easter Weekend Opening With $34M!

She has a hit TV show on the Disney Channel, a pair of albums that have debuted at #1 on the Billboard charts, a concert tour with 69 sold-out arenas in North America, and now a second #1 movie in as many years. Miley Cyrus is the biggest teen star in the world.

With most of Hollywood (including myself) expecting an opening in the mid-$20M’s for Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney), Miley has surprised “grown-ups” with her box office clout once again. The picture opened with a heavily front-loaded $17.39M on Good Friday then dropped 40% on Saturday to an estimated $10.34M, and it will reach an estimated $34M by the end of Easter weekend, making it the all-time #2 opening for the bunny holiday weekend. My Friday night early 3-day projection was for $33.6M, but then I raised my number to $39M on Saturday. As it turns out, I should have stuck with my first pass. These young skewing movies are tricky to project, and the Easter Weekend, where Saturday traditionally drops from Friday, makes it even more complicated.

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Tags: "Fast & Furious", 2 fast 2 furious, 3-d, adventureland, akira toriyama
Posted Apr 10th 2009 at 10:58 pm in Entertainment, Political Humor, Steve Mason's Box Office | 103286No Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/04/10/easterestimates/Hollywood%27s+Biggest+Easter+Weekend+Ever+By+As+Much+As+16%25%21%3A+%27Hannah+Montana%27+Down+40%25+on+Saturday%2C+But+Still+Becomes+All-Time+%232+Easter+Weekend+Opening+With+%2434M%21+2009-04-11+05%3A58%3A08Steve+Mason

Lots of Cash in Hollywood Easter Baskets: ‘Hannah Montana’ and ‘Observe & Report’ Could Lift the Weekend to an All-time Best!

Easter weekend 2009 will almost certainly be an all-time record-breaker for Hollywood with a pair of new releases that could be among the top six bunny holiday openings of all time. Although neither Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) or the new R-rated comedy Observe & Report (Warner Bros) will challenge 2006’s all-time Easter weekend opening champion Scary Movie 4 ($40.2M), both new offerings look very solid in pre-release industry tracking, and they will be joined by some strong holdovers.

Universal’s Fast & Furious is likely to cross the finish line first for a second consecutive weekend, following up last weekend’s almost $71M with about $30M, which would mark a 58% drop. Still, it must be considered a triumph that the re-teaming of Vin Diesel, Paul Walker, Jordana Brewster and Michelle Rodriguez may have $120M in US sales after just 10 days. That will mean that Fast & Furious will have almost doubled the domestic gross of The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift (the last film in the franchise), and this souped-up thrill ride could be headed for $160M US.

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Tags: "Fast & Furious", 2 fast 2 furious, 3-d, adventureland, akira toriyama
Posted Apr 9th 2009 at 9:31 am in Entertainment, Steve Mason's Box Office | 101426One Commenthttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/04/09/easter-tracking/Lots+of+Cash+in+Hollywood+Easter+Baskets%3A+%27Hannah+Montana%27+and+%27Observe+%26amp%3B+Report%27+Could+Lift+the+Weekend+to+an+All-time+Best%21+2009-04-09+16%3A31%3A58Steve+Mason

FAST & FURIOUS Opens With a Scalding $30M Friday & Could Speed to $70M by Monday, Surpassing CARS as the All-time Biggest Opening for an Auto Racing Movie!

With 400,000 Americans showing up every year at the Indy 500 and 200,000 more buying tickets to see NASCAR’s premiere event The Daytona 500, you would think that the most creative minds in Hollywood would be looking for a way to cash in with more movies about car racing and car culture. NASCAR has an estimated 75 million fans, and it is second only to the National Football League in terms of television ratings, so where are all the good racing movies?

Jordana Brewster is reunited with Vin, Paul and Michelle in FAST & FURIOUS

Universal seems to have answered that question by getting its successful street racing franchise back into the fast lane this weekend with Fast & Furious. The movie, which reunites Vin Diesel, Paul Walker, Jordana Brewster and Michelle Rodriguez for the first time since 2001’s original surprise blockbuster, has exploded to a high octane $30.11M or so on Friday and that could mean a $70M opening weekend. That would make it the all-time #1 opening for a car racing movie.

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Tags: 12 rounds, 2 fast 2 furious, 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take
Posted Apr 3rd 2009 at 10:32 pm in Entertainment, Steve Mason's Box Office | 971669 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/04/03/estimates43/FAST+%26amp%3B+FURIOUS+Opens+With+a+Scalding+%2430M+Friday+%26amp%3B+Could+Speed+to+%2470M+by+Monday%2C+Surpassing+CARS+as+the+All-time+Biggest+Opening+for+an+Auto+Racing+Movie%212009-04-04+05%3A32%3A48Steve+Mason

FAST & FURIOUS may “race” to $48M opening weekend with MONSTERS VS. ALIENS holding strong at $35M!

Universal’s Fast & Furious will be “burning rubber” this weekend at America’s multiplexes as the original street-racing cast reunites after some sub-par chapters of the franchise.

The original The Fast & The Furious hit theatres in 2001 under the direction of Rob Cohen who had shown a knack for action with Dragon: The Bruce Lee Story ($35M US cume) and Sly Stallone’s Daylight ($33M US cume) and a savvy feel for bigger-than-life characters in his Golden Globe winning biopic The Rat Pack (which, if you’ve never seen you should put in your Netflix cue and prepare to be amazed by Don Cheadle’s turn as Sammy Davis, Jr.). In tow, he had a 34-year-old Vin Diesel in only his second starring role following the surprise low budget hit Pitch Black ($39M cume) and 28-year-old Paul Walker, who had just starred in Cohen’s forgettable The Skulls. Also in the cast was Jordana Brewster (As the World Turns) and a pre-Lost Michelle Rodriguez, whose most notable credit was a gritty little indie called Girlfight.

Vin Diesel returns for FAST & FURIOUS

The result was box office jet fuel. Seemingly out of nowhere, The Fast & The Furious scored a scalding $40M opening weekend and reached $144.5M domestic and over $200M worldwide. But Diesel, whose signature line in the original movie is “I live my life one quarter of a mile at a time,” didn’t like the script for the sequel (or they wouldn’t pay his asking price depending on who you ask). That led to the 2003 sequel 2 Fast 2 Furious directed by Academy Award nominee John Singleton (Boyz n the Hood) starring Walker along with rapper Tyrese Gibson and Eva Mendes. Despite Diesel’s conspicuous absence, 2 Fast still delivered $127M in the US. (more…)

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Tags: 12 rounds, 2 fast 2 furious, 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take
Posted Apr 2nd 2009 at 7:24 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 961308 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/04/02/tracking43/FAST+%26amp%3B+FURIOUS+may+%22race%22+to+%2448M+opening+weekend+with+MONSTERS+VS.+ALIENS+holding+strong+at+%2435M%212009-04-03+02%3A24%3A21Steve+Mason

3-D returns in a MONSTER way! MONSTERS VS. ALIENS with $16.7M Friday & a possible $58M opening weekend!

It is an excellent weekend for Dreamworks Animation. Although the credit crunch prevented financing that would allow exhibitors to undertake the digital conversion of more of its theatres, Monsters vs. Aliens is benefiting spectacularly from the 2,075 or so standard Digital 3-D engagements and the added 143 Digital IMAX runs. The audaciously ambitious animated send-up of 50’s B-movies has used the “bleeding edge” of technology to milk an estimated $16.7M in opening day ticket sales. The which could translate to $58M or so for the 3-day weekend.

MONSTERS VS. ALIENS towers over previous 3-D releases from Hollywood

If that number holds, and, if anything, they could drift higher as family audiences flood America’s multiplexes, Monsters vs. Aliens will be the all-time third-best opening in the month of March.

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Tags: 12 rounds, 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take, 300
Posted Mar 27th 2009 at 11:02 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 907822 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/27/estimates3-27/3-D+returns+in+a+MONSTER+way%21+MONSTERS+VS.+ALIENS+with+%2416.7M+Friday+%26amp%3B+a+possible+%2458M+opening+weekend%212009-03-28+06%3A02%3A58Steve+Mason

MONSTERS VS. ALIENS is the widest non-summer release ever with over 7,000 screens! Katzenberg’s 3-D bet could pay off with $60M opening!

Jeffrey Katzenberg has been the film industry’s strongest proponent of 3-D over the past few years, and this weekend his advocacy will start paying dividends for Dreamworks Amimation. Monsters Vs. Aliens will debut with 4,104 playdates. That makes it the 13th-widest release in modern film history, and it becomes the biggest non-summer debut of all-time.

Jeffrey Katzenberg - The Pied Piper for Digital 3-D

ALL-TIME WIDEST NON-SUMMER RELEASES
- with summer defined as May 1 – August 30 -
1. 3/27/09 – Monsters Vs. Aliens – 4,104 playdates
2. 11/07/08 – Madagascar 2 – 4,056 playdates
3. 10/01/04 – Shark Tale – 4,016
4. 3/31/06 – Ice Age: The Meltdown – 3,964
5. 3/14/08 – Dr. Suess’ Horton Hears A Who – 3,954

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Tags: 12 rounds, 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take, alan moore
Posted Mar 26th 2009 at 9:30 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 89914No Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/26/finaltracking-3/MONSTERS+VS.+ALIENS+is+the+widest+non-summer+release+ever+with+over+7%2C000+screens%21+Katzenberg%27s+3-D+bet+could+pay+off+with+%2460M+opening%212009-03-27+04%3A30%3A07Steve+Mason

Summit scores a nice hit with KNOWING, which could reach $60M domestic, while I LOVE YOU, MAN has a shot at $70M in the US!

It was another good weekend for Summit Entertainment. The distributor behind last year’s meteoric hit Twilight has scored a solid hit with the Alex Proyas-directed Knowing, starring Nicolas Cage. Despite shaky word-of-mouth and negative reviews, the sci-fi thriller got a solid 9% bump on Saturday for a $9.7M second day, and it will likely finish its opening weekend with a possible $24.8M.

As a production company, Summit is responsible for some monster hits, including commercially and/or artistically successful films like Once (Oscar nominee for Best Picture), American Pie ($102..5M domestic), Memento (Oscar nominee for Best Original Screenplay: Chris Nolan), Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($186.3M domestic) and In the Valley of Ellah (Tommy Lee Jones nominated for Best Actor). But as a distributor, they got off to a slow start. (more…)

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take, a.r. rachman, academy awards
Posted Mar 22nd 2009 at 11:33 am in Entertainment, Steve Mason's Box Office | 8666210 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/22/studioestimates-2/Summit+scores+a+nice+hit+with+KNOWING%2C+which+could+reach+%2460M+domestic%2C+while+I+LOVE+YOU%2C+MAN+has+a+shot+at+%2470M+in+the+US%212009-03-22+18%3A33%3A54Steve+Mason

KNOWING grabs $8.95M Friday & targets $23.2M weekend, but word-of-mouth may push I LOVE YOU, MAN to $70M domestic; DUPLICITY gets a only a C from CinemaScore!

Early box office returns are pointing to a weekend win for Knowing from Summit, but I will put my money on I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) to generate more in US ticket sales over the long haul. The Nicolas Cage sci-fi thriller has grabbed an estimated $8.95M to start the weekend, and it will likely finish at $24M or so. That is, unless word-of-mouth catches up to it first.

Will reviews and word-of-mouth catch up to KNOWING?

Reviews for Knowing, written and directed by Alex Proyas, the inventive filmmaker behind the visually striking 1998 film Dark City and the 2004 Will Smith mega-hit I, Robot, has received overwhelmingly negative reviews (25% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but thanks to Twitter, real-time movie-goer reactions spread like wildfire. Here are some Tweets I just grabbed off the social networking platform.

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take, a.r. rachman, academy awards
Posted Mar 20th 2009 at 10:30 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 8596218 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/20/estimates-9/KNOWING+grabs+%248.95M+Friday+%26amp%3B+targets+%2423.2M+weekend%2C+but+word-of-mouth+may+push+I+LOVE+YOU%2C+MAN+to+%2470M+domestic%3B+DUPLICITY+gets+a+only+a+C+from+CinemaScore%212009-03-21+05%3A30%3A27Steve+Mason

KNOWING is favored to win the weekend, but is I LOVE YOU, MAN poised for an upset?

For the last few weeks, Summit’s Knowing, starring Nicolas Cage, has appeared to be the likely winner of the upcoming box office weekend. But, my sources tell me that I Love You, Man, the new comedy starring Paul Rudd (Role Models) and Jason Segal (Forgetting Sarah Marshall) has surged in the latest pre-release industry tracking.

In the spirit of March Madness, I’m calling for the upset. I Love You, Man may not actually be a Judd Apatow movie, but it sure does look like one in trailers and commercials. The movie reportedly “rocked the house” at the South By South West Festival last week, and the buzz is very positive. I am calling for $21.5M, which would be above industry expectations.

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Tags: 2-d, 3-d, 3-day take, a.r. rachman, academy awards
Posted Mar 19th 2009 at 5:39 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | 8503027 Commentshttp://bighollywood.breitbart.com/smason/2009/03/19/tracking-3/KNOWING+is+favored+to+win+the+weekend%2C+but+is+I+LOVE+YOU%2C+MAN++poised+for+an+upset%3F2009-03-20+00%3A39%3A04Steve+Mason