With most of Hollywood (including myself) expecting an opening in the mid-$20M’s for Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney), Miley has surprised “grown-ups” with her box office clout once again. The picture opened with a heavily front-loaded $17.39M on Good Friday then dropped 40% on Saturday to an estimated $10.34M, and it will reach an estimated $34M by the end of Easter weekend, making it the all-time #2 opening for the bunny holiday weekend. My Friday night early 3-day projection was for $33.6M, but then I raised my number to $39M on Saturday. As it turns out, I should have stuck with my first pass. These young skewing movies are tricky to project, and the Easter Weekend, where Saturday traditionally drops from Friday, makes it even more complicated.

Likely still the all-time Easter Weekend opening champ

ALL-TIME TOP 5 EASTER WEEKEND OPENINGS
1. Scary Movie 4 - $40.2M
2. Hannah Montana The Movie – $34M (projected)
3. Panic Room – $30M
4. The Matrix – $27.7M
5. Guess Who – $20.7M

That is also stronger than Miley Cyrus’ 3-D concert movie last year. 2008’s Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour, which was promoted as a one-week-only motion picture event and benefited from a 3-D upcharge, delivered a stunning $31.1M last February. This 16-year-old has outdone herself.

For the business overall, it appears to be a spectacular frame as Hannah and some strong holdovers will likely have scored the biggest Easter Weekend in modern box office history, surpassing 2002’s holiday 3-day. In fact, this 3-day could beat the previous record by as much as 16%.

Kristin Stewart & Jody Foster were #1 in PANIC ROOM leading Hollywood's previous best Easter Weekend

ALL-TIME BIGGEST GROSSING EASTER WEEKENDS
- totals are for the top 10 films for the holiday 3-day -
1. 4/10/09 – $126.4M [#1 - Hannah Montana The Movie - $34M] (projected)
2. 3/29/02 – $108.8M [#1 – Panic Room - $30M]
3. 4/14/06 – $107.08M [#1 – Scary Movie 4 - $40.2M]
4. 4/06/07 – $104.5M [#1 - Blades of Glory - $22.5M]
5. 3/21/08 – $94.65M [#1 - Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears A Who! - $24.6M]
6. 4/07/04 – $87.9M [#1 – Passion of the Christ - $15.2M]
7. 3/25/05 – $86.8M [#1 – Guess Who - $20.6M]
8. 4/18/03 – $83.8M [#1 – Anger Management - $25M]
9. 4/02/99 – $72.7M [#1 – The Matrix - $27.8M]
10. 4/21/00 – $70.3M [#1 – U-571 - $19.5M]

Hollywood wouldn’t be making history were it not for the continued high octane ticket sales of Fast & Furious (Universal). The fourth in the F&F franchise is down about 59% from its rubber-burning $71M opening, but it will still likely manage a an estimated $28.78M, more than enough for second-place. The Diesel-Walker-Brewster-Rodriguez “speed machine” will have about $118M in the bank on Monday, putting it miles ahead of the other movies in the franchise.

The secret to getting the F&F franchise back on track? - Just add Diesel

10-DAY GROSSES FOR FAST & FURIOUS FRANCHISE
1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $118M opening (projected)
2. 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003) – $83.6M opening
3. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $77.9M opening
4. The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift (2006) – $43.2M opening

Monsters Vs. Aliens from Dreamworks Animation continues to perform in monstrous proportions. The cutting edge 3-D spectacle added another $9.07M on its third Friday (no school for lots of kids), and it has reached $22.6M thanks to big family matinees on Saturday and Sunday. MVA is the fifth-best performer for Dreamworks Animation after 17 days, trailing only the Shrek franchise and Kung Fu Panda.

TOP 10 GROSSES FOR DREAMWORKS ANIMATION AFTER 17 DAYS
1. Shrek 2 – $287M
2. Shrek the Third – $255.9M
3. Shrek – $148.3M
4. Kung Fu Panda – $155.8M
5. Monsters vs. Aliens – $141M (projected)
6. Madagascar 2 – $137.1M
7. Madagascar – $128.4M
8. Shark Tale – $118.7M
9. Over the Hedge – $112.3M
10. Bee Movie – $93.6M

But Monsters Vs. Aliens looks even better when compared to other animated films released during non-peak times. Jeffrey Katzenberg’s latest is almost keeping pace with Fox’s Ice Age: The Meltdown.

TOP GROSSES FOR NON-SUMMMER, NON-HOLIDAY ANIMATED MOVIES AFTER 17 DAYS
- excludes movies released May-August and November-December –
1. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $147.2M
2. Monsters vs. Aliens – $141M (projected)
3. Shark Tale – $118.7M
4. Dr. Suess’ Horton Hears A Who! - $177.5M
5. Ice Age – $116.8M

Seth Rogen apparently has less MALL COP appeal than Paul Blart

Not all good news for the studios. Observe & Report, the new Seth Rogen, R-rated comedy from Warner Bros, got off to a sluggish start with about $4.76M and dipped below $4M on Saturday. Reviews are very good, and this one could benefit from positive word-of-mouth over the long haul, but the Warner Bros estimate is for just $11.1M or so for the weekend.

Meanwhile, Fox’s Dragonball: Evolution is a bomb with estimated sales of just $2M on opening day and a $4.65M 3-day start (8th place). Summit’s strong-holding Knowing rounds out the top five with a possible $6.67M for a new cume of almost $68M.

FRIDAY STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $17.39M, $5,577 PTA, $17.39M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $10.6M, $3,053PTA, $99.85M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $9.07M, $2,193 PTA, $127.46M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $4.76M, $1,746 PTA, $4.76M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) – $2.4M, $821 PTA, $63.73M cume
6. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $2.35, $864 PTA, $42.93M cume
7. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.3M, $870 PTA, $54.88M cume
8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $2M, $917 PTA, $2M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $1.25M, $666 PTA, $9.26M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $1M, $509 PTA, $34.85M cume

3-DAY STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $34M, $10,904 PTA, $34M cume
2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $28.78M, $8,290 PTA, $118M cume
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $22.61M, $5,468 PTA, $141M cume
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $11.14M, $4,085 PTA, $11.14M cume
5. Knowing (Summit) – $6.67M, $2,280 PTA, $68M cume
6. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $6.41M, $2,426 PTA, $59M cume
7. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $5.71M, $2,098 PTA, $46.29M cume
8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $4.65M, $2,132 PTA, $4.65M cume
9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $3.43M, $1,830 PTA, $11.45M cume
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $2.99M, $1,525 PTA, $36.84M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Universal’s Fast & Furious is likely to cross the finish line first for a second consecutive weekend, following up last weekend’s almost $71M with about $30M, which would mark a 58% drop. Still, it must be considered a triumph that the re-teaming of Vin Diesel, Paul Walker, Jordana Brewster and Michelle Rodriguez may have $120M in US sales after just 10 days. That will mean that Fast & Furious will have almost doubled the domestic gross of The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift (the last film in the franchise), and this souped-up thrill ride could be headed for $160M US.

The likely second-place finisher this weekend will be Hannah Montana The Movie, which has far less sizzle than Miley Cyrus’ 3-D concert movie last year. 2008’s Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour was promoted as a one-week-only motion picture event and benefited from a 3-D upcharge, delivering a stunning $31.1M last February 1-3. This Miley movie will perform well, but it doesn’t appear to be a sensation-in-the-making.

Make no mistake. Miley Cyrus is an industry, and business is booming. Only four years ago, she was known merely as the 12-year-old daughter of the guy who sang Achy Breaky Heart. She auditioned for the role of “the best friend” in a new series being developed by The Disney Channel about an ordinary teenager who is secretly a pop star. Instead, she won the lead. Within a year of the debut of Hannah Montana, she had two albums that debuted at #1 on Billboard’s album charts. Then came the Best of Both World’s Concert Tour and 69 sold-out arena dates across North America.

Her new movie directed by Peter Chelsom, who has directed actresses like Diane Keaton in Town and Country ($6.7M cume) and Jennifer Lopez in Shall We Dance? ($57.9M cume), seems headed to an Easter weekend opening in the mid-$20M’s. I’m calling for $24.6M and a second-place finish.

Monsters Vs. Aliens 3-D should continue to play strongly with family audiences, possibly dipping by as little as 36% to a possible $21M and a #3 finish. MVA will likely be just shy of $140M in the US by Monday.

Seth Rogen's "mall cop" in OBSERVE & REPORT is far less mass appeal than PAUL BLART

The new Seth Rogen comedy and and the second “mall cop” movie of 2009 – could finish fourth. Observe and Report is written and directed by Eastbound & Down writer/creator Jody Hill (who appeared as an actor in Superbad). This movie is apparently just as edgy as Hill’s over-the-top raunchy series, but it has a 61% Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes.

Still, it sounds like it’s not for everybody, based on this review from Rick Mele from AskMen.com. “Unlikable characters, gratuitous male nudity, a dry and sometimes nihilistic sense of humor — there are moments when you can’t believe they got away with this, at a major studio no less.” I’ve learned not to underestimate these male-skewing, Apatow-style comedies, and this one seems to have a $20M target or maybe just shy of that mark ($19.5M).

A third new release Dragonball: Evolution (Fox), based on Akira Toriyama’s wildly popular manga, could reach the low teens, skewing to Males Under 25, particularly tween boys. Several animated versions of the show have appeared on The Cartoon Network, so there is an audience, although the new live action film’s 23% Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes would seem to limit the upside to a possible $10.7M by Monday.

My predicted numbers for the weekend top ten are for $126.4M. If Hollywood hits that number, it will be the biggest-grossing top ten Easter movies ever (by a lot), surpassing the 2002 Easter weekend, which was led by David Fincher’s Panic Room starring Jodie Foster.

ALL-TIME BIGGEST GROSSING EASTER WEEKENDS
- totals are for the top 10 films for the holiday 3-day -
1. 3/29/02 – $108.8M [#1 – Panic Room - $30M]
2. 4/14/06 – $107.08M [#1 – Scary Movie 4 - $40.2M]
3. 4/06/07 – $104.5M [#1 - Blades of Glory - $22.5M]
4. 3/21/08 – $94.65M [#1 - Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears A Who! - $24.6M]
5. 4/07/04 – $87.9M [#1 – Passion of the Christ - $15.2M]
6. 3/25/05 – $86.8M [#1 – Guess Who - $20.6M]
7. 4/18/03 – $83.8M [#1 – Anger Management - $25M]
8. 4/02/99 – $72.7M [#1 – The Matrix - $27.8M]
9. 4/21/00 – $70.3M [#1 – U-571 - $19.5M]
10. 3/28/97 – $69.9M [#1 – Liar, Liar - $25.4M]

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR APRIL 10-12
1. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $30M
2. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $24.6M
3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $21M
4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $19.5M
5. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $10.7M
6. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $5.1M
7. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $4.9M
8. Knowing (Summit) – $4.8M
9. Adventureland (Miramax) -$3.4M
10. Duplicity (Universal) – $2.4M