“[T]he system around which the motion-picture business has oriented itself almost since its creation in the early years of the last century–the star system, which it largely invented–has finally reached its end.”

“The eight most successful movies over the course of the year’s first eight months have collectively grossed $2.7 billion, up from $2.3 billion for the entirety of 2008. And what is most striking about these eight films is that not a single one of them, not a single one, features an unmistakable star. Three of them are cartoons (Up, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, and Monsters vs. Aliens). Three are sequels whose top-line talents are incidental to their success (Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, the sixth Harry Potter, and X-Men Origins: Wolverine). Two feature relative nobodies (Star Trek and The Hangover). The first traditional star appears in the ninth-place film, which is itself a high-concept sequel in which the star mostly stands around (Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian with Ben Stiller). It’s not until tenth place that a classic vehicle hits the list, Sandra Bullock’s The Proposal. And after that you have to jump down to 15th place to find Tom Hanks in Angels and Demons. Will Ferrell’s movie tanked. Julia Roberts laid an egg. Adam Sandler couldn’t sell a ticket. Johnny Depp disappointed. Denzel Washington and John Travolta bombed together. Instead, the movies whose successes depended on their strong leading performances were the ones featuring the 57-year-old Irishman Liam Neeson (Taken, $145 million) and the out-of-work TV comedian Kevin James (Paul Blart: Mall Cop, $146 million).

“The 2009 box-office numbers offer the most dramatic evidence yet that the system around which the motion-picture business has oriented itself almost since its creation in the early years of the last century–the star system, which it largely invented–has finally reached its end.”

You can read the piece in full here.

Funny People showed much less audience draw than the great majority of Apatow’s and actor Adam Sandler’s previous efforts, and its failure to connect big with audiences cannot be blamed on any recent disappointments. Apatow’s Knocked Up and Sandler’s Bedtime Stories were both excellent films that did very well at the box office.

The magnitude of the disappointment for the Funny People writer-director and its star was summed up well by Reuters:

* This will likely be the eighth straight movie that Apatow produced that failed to top $100 million. (”Step Brothers” and “You Don’t Mess With the Zohan,” the latter of which he also wrote, just reached the mark but didn’t surpass it.)

* Opening weekend has been a hallmark of Apatow in his robust years. But only two of these past eight films opened to at least $30 million — after the three previous pictures all did.

* This month marks exactly two years since Apatow Prods. had a bona fide breakout along the lines of a “Talladega Nights” or “The 40-Year-Old Virgin” — the Greg Mottola-directed “Superbad,” which earned $121 million.

* After “Virgin” and “Knocked Up,” Apatow was touted for his rare ability to bring overseas audiences to U.S. comedies. That was then, this is now. Outside of “Zohan,” none of his previous seven pictures have topped $150 million internationally. “Funny People” isn’t likely to change that.

I haven’t yet seen the film, but it seems likely that this is a misstep on Apatow’s part and not a portent of inevitable things to come. It’s always tempting for comedians to attempt overtly serious projects, but Funny People is nothing like Woody Allen’s lugubrious and overwrought Interiors.It’s clear that Apatow tried to be funny in this film, and the inclusion of serious themes is certainly in line with the other films he has directed, The Forty-Year-Old Virgin and Knocked Up.

Sandler, of course, has done films such as Punch-Drunk Love and Spanglish but always managed to get back to what he does best. Both Sandler and Apatow have exemplified the contemporary habit of conveying positive ideas and moral messages through works of culture employing vulgar and trashy surface elements. The shortcoming of Funny People was an evident failure to assure audiences that the vulgarity and messages would be placed in an enjoyable dramatic and comic context.

That suggests that Funny People is more of a bump in the road for both filmmakers, and that they’ll both be able to move forward from the relative disappointment of their current film. However, the trailers and other publicity for their next project will have to make it clear that it offers audiences the same sort of enjoyment and edification their previous films have given.

Filmmakers in general must learn that vulgarity, explicit sexual content, absurd story lines, mad violence, and the like are not what appeal to most of their audience film-goers attend movies with such content because of the other good things in the films, specifically the positive messages and aesthetic enjoyment to be found behind the trashy surface nonsense. Emphasizing the former is the way to both artistic and audience success.

In a culture that openly celebrates vulgarity, mistaking it for authenticity, it’s difficult for artisans and audiences alike to see what really makes for good culture, including good popular culture. But the market sends strong signals, and filmmakers and other culture-makers do well to listen and learn.

That happy-sad dichotomy is at the heart of the new film “Funny People,” in which Adam Sandler plays Simmons in a terrific performance that no doubt draws on his own experiences as a wildly successful comedy star. As written and directed by Judd Apatow in his third film, following “The 40 Year Old Virgin” and “Knocked Up,” the movie has an intimate awareness of the pain that often lies behind the laughter generated by our modern court jesters. 

Yet, while its potent blend of comedy and pathos is richly entertaining and moving in the first 90 minutes, the fact that “Funny People” tops out at a staggering 146 minutes will leave viewers feeling the same sort of annoyance that comedy club customers feel when a comic ignores the light to get off stage. The film recovers somewhat in its closing 15 minutes, but it’ll be interesting to see whether filmgoers are willing enough to forgive the interminable 45 minutes that drag it down from four-star-classic status to give Apatow his third $100 million-grossing blockbuster hit. 

The film scores its best moments and gets right down to business as Sandler receives his doctor’s grim prognosis at the end of the opening credits. Receiving the news that he’s almost guaranteed to die, Simmons returns to a comedy club for the first time in five years, only to leave the audience depressed rather than entertained. 

**Mild Spoilers Coming** 

But in the wings is Ira Wright (Seth Rogen), a young comic who’s a rabid Simmons fan. Catching the star’s attention, he winds up getting a seeming dream gig as his well-paid assistant and opening act. But when Simmons beats his disease (a fact the trailer reveals), he tracks down his old girlfriend Laura (Leslie Mann), who’s now married with children, and tries to disrupt her marriage, Simmons reveals a dark, selfish side and Ira has to decide whether to interfere and risk his career. 

It’s in the final hour that Simmons tempts Laura, and it’s that shift in plot focus that nearly ruins the film. Laura’s husband Clarke (Eric Bana) isn’t a bad enough guy for audiences to root against him, resulting in the fact that the film’s ostensible romantic leads become unlikable for most of the film’s remainder. 

Mann is writer-director Apatow’s real-life wife, and he seems determined at all costs to provide her a leading role after her much sharper supporting roles in his first two films. Her performance here is great as well, but the relationship between her and Simmons feels like a different movie, literally in the fact that the plotline doesn’t fit the overall film well, and figuratively in the fact that it also feels like an extra full-length film. Someone needs to remind the studio executives that giving a director final cut, when ego can get in the way of solid judgment, isn’t a good idea. 

What’s in the film’s favor is that the performances – including a galaxy of major-star cameos - are all terrific, and that the film is perhaps the first in Hollywood history to get the world of stand-up comedy (I’m also a professional comedian) right, after painfully misguided garbage like the Tom Hanks ‘80s film “Punchline.” If you’re willing to endure the boring parts, you’ll still emerge with a smile on your face and find yourself quoting the funniest lines.

Adam Sandler is George Simmons, a comedian/movie star as wealthy and popular as Sandler, but having turned his back on his family and cheated on his one true love, Laura (Leslie Mann), he’s now left with only “show-biz friends,” which means he has no friends at all. In-between making films like “Merman” (”Splash” with a guy mermaid) and private-jetting to corporate standup gigs that pay $300k, this desolate 40 year-old haunts a Malibu mansion and looks to fill his emptiness with willing groupies and everything money can buy.

After being diagnosed with a rare form of Leukemia, George is given an 8% chance of survival and put on experimental medicines that only seem to quicken his deterioration. He has no one, so he tells no one, but for some element of human contact he returns to his roots in the L.A. comedy clubs. This is where George meets Ira (Seth Rogen), a struggling comedian much better at writing jokes than delivering them. Needing a joke writer, an assistant, and even a friend, George hires Ira to be all three and a fascinating, complicated and unpredictable relationship is born.

The film’s first half takes us into the ultra-competitive world of show business and standup comedy, using Ira and his two roommates as a microcosm. The three of them are close but always simmering just below the surface is a fierce rivalry. Mark (Jason Schwartzman) is a sitcom star who leaves his $25,000 paychecks lying around, Leo (Jonah Hill) is just starting to make money as a performer, but Ira’s relegated to grabbing open mic nights and working full time behind the deli counter of a grocery store. Apatow obviously understands this world very well because the relationships feel 100% authentic, especially the tensions that never leave these three, even in the best of times.  

The narrative takes an abrupt turn in the second half, way outside the world of Hollywood and into suburban family life, when George re-enters Laura’s life. Though it’s been twelve years and Laura’s now married with two daughters, imminent death stirs up old feelings between them and George decides he wants her back. Because her Australian husband (Eric Bana) is unfaithful, George proceeds under the assumption all’s fair. But things aren’t as black and white as he thought, and this includes his own feelings.

Apatow’s genius is how effortlessly he pulls two completely different worlds into one cohesive film without breaking the spell. You have to credit the director’s skills as a screenwriter, but the whole show is the single and separate emotional journeys of George and Ira, and both actors playing those roles deliver revelatory, career-high performances.

Sandler’s always shown promise as a dramatic actor; the problem has been the films themselves. Even more than the under-appreciated “Punch Drunk Love,”  ”Funny People” gives Sandler a showcase any serious actor would kill for and boy does he deliver. George is alternately pathetic, cruel, charming and despairing, and Sandler hits each note perfectly. Never once do you catch him acting. Never once does he stoop to pathos. Rogen, an actor I’ve never warmed to until now, is just as good. Finally he shakes off the cold hostility that’s undermined everything he’s done thus far and delivers an accessible, average guy (though driven) worth rooting for. Leslie Mann (Apatow’s wife) is, as always, fetching and compelling.

At 146 minutes, the pacing is certainly deliberate and measured, but the butt never numbed and I was sorry when it ended. The language is crude. Everyone’s obsessed with sex, especially the male member, but unlike Apatow’s other films these moments don’t feel look-at-this-iconic-moment forced. The world’s so perfectly realized that, coming from these characters, the “dick” stuff is more charming than off-putting and feels as natural as breathing.

Without giving anything away, what’s most impressive about this terrific film is how difficult and troubled George’s journey is. When he remembers he’s dying, he really is a changed man. When he forgets, the closed, self-involved “star” quickly returns. This is why the film, length and all, works so damn well. From moment to moment, you never know (especially in the second half) which George you’re dealing with. It’s a perfect thread of emotional tension that tightens until the very last scene, which, for my money, is one of subtlest, sweetest and best of the year.

I was wrong about Apatow, I was wrong about Rogen, and when it comes to movies I love being this kind of wrong.

You could feel it in the air as Apatow basked in the glow of his 2006 double whammy, the hilarious “Knocked Up” and “Superbad.” By the time 2007’s “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” rolled around, the backlash was gathering steam.

I told a friend I’d seen it.

“Is it just more of the Judd Apatow formula,” he sniffed. It was, I admitted. But I like the formula. I like it a lot. And not to get too Harry Knowles on everyone, but I’ve liked it for a long while.

I liked “The Ben Stiller Show,” loved “Heavyweights” and what I saw of “The Larry Sanders Show.” Heck, I even chuckled at “Celtic Pride” and saw “The Cable Guy” opening weekend. Aside from the latter, most people didn’t see much of Apatow’s work, but those who had loved most of it.

He got a chance to stretch his wings with “Freaks and Geeks,” probably my favorite show ever this side of “The Andy Griffith Show” (pre-departure of Don Knotts), “Cheers,” and “The Honeymooners.” Paul Feig created F&G, but Apatow nurtured it and, if my admittedly shoddy research is true, was the master at injecting sweetness into some of the storylines. That sweetness, honed so well in “The 40-Year-Old Virgin,” is what separates his vulgar comedies from other, more obnoxious vulgar comedies. And it’s about to bite him in the ass, I think.

“He has his cake and eats it too,” I’ve heard people say of Apatow. An hour and a half of homophobic, sexist comedy, and it’s all wrapped up in the end with a phony moral message. Sorry, but I call bullcrap on that.

What’s interesting is that I hear the sexist card being played from both sides on “Knocked Up.” Katherine Heigl is a shrew, I’m told, for expecting Seth Rogan to clean up his act. That’s sort of what she said, I think, in an article in a magazine I don’t read. But, but, but…I didn’t think she was a shrew. I thought she was right. I never thought she was the bad guy. I thought we were laughing at Rogan and with him. So I guess Apatow was having his cake and eating it too.

John Nolte pointed out that he doesn’t empathize with the characters. I’ve also heard the complaint that Rudd’s character was doing nothing wrong, and the women made it out to be terrible that he would sneak off to a fantasy baseball league meeting, or whatever the hell it was. The fact that Rudd’s character felt guilty about it didn’t go over with some people I’ve talked to (I corner people and bring up the awesomeness of Judd Apatow, which is the extent of my shoddy research). Again, I disagree. I totally empathized with Rudd and his wife, the hilarious Leslie Mann. Why? I feel guilty when I go to a movie and my wife’s alone with our insane kids. I get where Rudd’s coming from, and picture my wife being as mad as Leslie Mann was.

Ultimately, I’m wary anytime someone calls a movie sexist or racist. I rarely, if ever, think that the characters in a movie are meant to symbolically represent all men, or all women.

As for the charge of homophobia, leveled by none other than “Freaks and Geeks” writer Mike White, here’s the rub, and it won’t go down easy. No matter how accepted homosexuality becomes in this society or just about any other, dudes will always crack gay jokes. The resurrection of Prop 8 could fail by a hundred percent, and dudes will still crack gay jokes. My son is six. He’s never cracked a gay joke, I’ve never told him what gay means outside of  the context “The Wiggles” or “Barney” saying something is happy and gay. But when we were at open house at his school in West L.A., he warned me not to use the middle urinal in the bathroom, “Because Mark told me it’s the gay one.”

“So what, what does Mark know?” I asked, stepping up to the urinal.

“Dad! He knows! He’s in the third grade!” my son exclaimed as some other kids came in, laughing and pointing. I’d like to say that I acted like a grown up in this situation, but I’d be lying. Instead, I bellowed, “I’m not gay! You are!”, zipped up before I was finished, and ran back to the open house, my pants stained with pee, their laughter echoing in my head.

Apatow’s swinging for the fences with his next movie, “Funny People”, starring his one-time roommate Adam Sandler, along with Seth Rogan, Leslie Mann, Eric Bana, Jonah Hill, and some Coppola. The trailer looks funny, but again, I have to confess something else as it relates to this self-indulgent post: I’m a big Sandler fan. Always have been, since his sporadic appearances on “The Cosby Show” and “Remote Control.” For several years, I worked at Blockbuster on Sunset Boulevard. When customers would ask me if they should rent a new Sandler movie, say “The Longest Yard,” I’d think, “Just pick a movie, what do you need my help for, you friggin’ Democrat,” but I’d smile politely and gush, “It’s the best movie ever! They never should have remade it, but it’s still the best movie ever.”

About that time, my buddies would say, “Wait, customer. He’s an irrational Adam Sandler fan. Don’t listen to him. It’s a terrible movie.”

A fist-fight would ensue. But anyway, Apatow’s never made any secret about his love of James L. Brooks’ movies (I’m guessing he missed “I’ll Do Anything”), and “Funny People” looks suspiciously like Apatow doing James L. Brooks. With dick jokes and potheads.

I so cannot wait.

But the backlash is just a wave right now, in the distance, crashing tsunami like to the shore in a couple of months. I’m predicting I’ll be defending this movie for the better part of the year, provided I can get a guilt-free trip to the multiplex in the books. I don’t think Apatow can win here, he’s due for a huge backlash. Setting aside my irrational love of his movies, and Sandlers, and Rogan’s (I’ve bored you enough) — if this movie’s only pretty good, KA-BLOWIE! Apatow’s gonna take it on the chin, a victim of his own success.

He’s gotten too big. Alot of the people who claimed to like him before he was popular are upset that he’s popular. He was theirs. And if I’m right that he’s ambitiously entering “Terms of Endearment” territory, with fouler language, many of those same people are going to turn on him.

In the interest of fairness, I get that Apatow has glutted the market lately, but you know what? I don’t blame him. People are finally watching, it’s time to crank’em out. He made it on merit, and he’s earned a little over saturation. It’s like how Hall of Fame NBA star Dominique Wilkins described his offensive philosophy: “Shoot ’til you get hot, and then keep shooting.”

Who’s looking forward to “Funny People”, and who thinks it’s going to be a stinker? I think you know my answer: Bring it on, Judd. I mean, Mr. Apatow.

No matter how crude or wild things got, Adam Sandler, Chevy Chase, John Candy, John Belushi, and Bill Murray have all managed to capture our sympathy in a single scene. Rogen lacks that gift, which makes him the perfect choice to play a deluded, territorial mall cop in “Observe and Report.”

Ronnie (Rogen) wants to be a hero and leader of men, and he’ll be damned if he’ll let anything get in the way, including his own limitations and station in life. Overweight, not terribly bright and suffering from psychological problems serious enough to require medication, Ronnie’s positioned himself as the Supercop of the Forest Ridge Mall, and with a team of three other mall cops made up of overweight twins and the sycophant Dennis (Michael Pena - finally breaking out of the sensitive-Hispanic typecasting ghetto), skateboarders, suspicious Middle Easterners and anyone foolish enough to make Ronnie’s day had best beware this Hall Monitor from Hell.

Ronnie’s smitten with cosmetic counter-girl Brandi (the always brilliant and ridiculously fetching Anna Faris), but for obvious reasons she’s not interested in him and manages to keep him at arms-length until she’s accosted by a flasher who works the mall parking lot. The police, in the form of Detective Harrison (The Mighty Ray Liotta) are called in, allowing Ronnie to engage in a turf war that delights him and position himself as Brandi’s protector.

Emboldened by “his case” and how working it feeds the delusion, Ronnie applies to be a police officer, romances (if you want to call it that) Brandi and assumes that because life is going so well that it’s now okay to go off his meds. Obviously Ronnie can’t keep reality from intruding forever, but the harder it tries the more extreme his reactions, which all leads to a smart and unexpected finale.

“Observe and Report” is a fairly cold character study of an interesting but extremely unlikable man. The tone awkwardly shifts between Adam Sandler’s bawdier films and something much darker. At times the comedy is surprisingly good-natured but on a dime turns over-the-top hostile and very, very violent. What saves it, though, is something of a lost art in Hollywood these days, and that’s pacing. If there’s been a more expertly paced film released in the last year, I haven’t seen it. This thing hums — never too slow, never too fast. The lack of sympathetic characters keeps you from caring what happens next, but the story moves so damn well you keep watching.

Rogen is absolutely outstanding as Ronnie. Because his character is a habitual and self-destructive  truth-teller (as Ronnie sees the truth), the script’s littered with monologues that in lesser hands would’ve come off as self-conscious, actor show pieces, but Rogen pulls them off effortlessly, never breaking character. The supporting cast is equally good, especially Faris as a disgusting princess and Ray Liotta repressing rage and then not repressing rage as only Ray Liotta can.

There’s much to admire about “Observe and Report,” but little to like. Loaded with relentless full-frontal male nudity, foul language and blaring music clips, you get the sense that writer/director Jody Hill is trying too hard. The film’s biggest failure, though, is that for all the build up, you never get that knot of dread in your stomach wondering what Ronnie might do next. But that’s what happens when you can’t decide on the kind of film you’re making. There’s a potentially brilliant black comedy in “Observe and Report,” and an enjoyable silly one, unfortunately the mash-up of the two dilutes the impact making for  an interesting but remote 86-minutes.

As a production company, Summit is responsible for some monster hits, including commercially and/or artistically successful films like Once (Oscar nominee for Best Picture), American Pie ($102..5M domestic), Memento (Oscar nominee for Best Original Screenplay: Chris Nolan), Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($186.3M domestic) and In the Valley of Ellah (Tommy Lee Jones nominated for Best Actor). But as a distributor, they got off to a slow start.

SUMMIT RELEASES
- in sequential order -
11/9/07 – P2 – $4M cume
2/29/08 – Penelope – $10M cume
3/14/08 – Never Back Down – $24.8M cume
8/15/08 – Fly Me To the Moon – $13.2M cume
10/17/08 – Sex Drive – $8.4M cume
11/21/08 – Twilight – $191.3M cume
2/6/09 – Push – $30.9M cume
3/20/09 – Knowing – $24.8M opening – $55M-$60M projected cume

As I wrote Friday, I think that word-of-mouth is weak for Knowing, but the movie held up pretty well over opening weekend. It is definitely helped by it’s PG-13 rating, its appeal to Males Under 25 (especially Under 17’s), and its similarity to Cage’s National Treasure franchise.

Meanwhile, I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) ticked up 8% on Saturday to about $6.8M, and it will have banked about $18M by Monday morning. That is on par with Paul Rudd’s Role Models ($19.1M opening) and Jason Segal’s Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($17.7M opening). I’m sticking with $65M-$70M as my projection for domestic box office for this very funny movie that happens to have a very good heart.

I really wonder about the R-rating for I Love You, Man. It is a very, very soft R. There is no nudity or sex (although there are references to oral sex in particular), and it doesn’t roll up a high count of F-bombs. It seems to me that the ratings board was hard on this one, and a PG-13 rating could have meant an additional $5M-$8M (at least) on opening weekend.

DUPLICITY is Julia Roberts' first feature lead since 2003's MONA LISA SMILE

The other new wide release is Duplicity (Universal), starring Julia Roberts and Clive Owen. This is a very smart, densely-plotted, stylish-looking movie for grown-ups. Writer/director Tony Gilroy is among the best screenwriters in town with all three Jason Bourne movies on his resume along with the legal thriller Michael Clayton, nominated for 7 Academy Awards.

With Females 25 Plus as its most important demo, the film got a big 27% Saturday bump to almost $6M. I saw the movie Saturday night, and it was about 60% women with lots of women in pairs and groups. That is a very good sign for future weeks since Females 25 Plus are never in a rush to see a movie on opening weekend. The audience I was in was mesmerized and laughed in all the right places, but overall, the CinemaScore exit survey was only a C. I still belive that, after a $14.4M third-place finish, Duplicity will get to the $45M-$50M range in the US.

Not strong enough to hold an audience for weekend #2 of RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN

Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) is not holding well at all, dipping to $13M for the weekend. A 46% second weekend drop spells an early end for the new one starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. It is just not especially well-liked, and Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks Animation) will destroy it next weekend.

Sorry Rohrschach, WATCHMEN is completely burned out

Finally, Watchmen (Warner Bros) suffered a second consecutive disastrous 3-day, down another 62% to $6.7M for a 17-day cume of $98M. Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s classic graphic novel is unlikely to reach much past $110M in the US, and with a soft foreign performance as well, it will struggle to reach any real profitability.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $24.81M, $7,447 PTA, $24.81M cume
2. NEW – I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $18M, $6,640 PTA, $18M cume
3. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $14.4M, $5,595 PTA, $14.4M cume
4. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $13M, $4,080 PTA, $44.71M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $6.72M, $1,916 PTA, $98M cume
6. The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.92M, $2,465 PTA, $24.04M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $4.4M, $1,654 PTA, $133.43M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.7M, $1,306 PTA, $137.2M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.51M, $1,368 PTA, $87.2M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.14M, $1,498 PTA, $72.8M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

Will reviews and word-of-mouth catch up to KNOWING?

Reviews for Knowing, written and directed by Alex Proyas, the inventive filmmaker behind the visually striking 1998 film Dark City and the 2004 Will Smith mega-hit I, Robot, has received overwhelmingly negative reviews (25% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but thanks to Twitter, real-time movie-goer reactions spread like wildfire. Here are some Tweets I just grabbed off the social networking platform.

You can Follow me on Twitter@LAMase

Just saw the Knowing. How and why some movies get made is beyond me.

Nobody go see Knowing.

The Knowing was a great movie. BUT it made absolutely no sense, got kinda scary, and made me cry.. three times. Imagine Noah’s Ark in space.

Getting home from a lame movie. “Knowing” is better left unknown.

Just saw “Knowing” with Nicholas Cage – LOVED IT – don’t think many will though

Notice the last Tweet. That movie fan is actually already anticipating bad word-of-mouth. Maybe they saw Knowing with friends, and they were the only one who liked it, or maybe the general reaction in the theatre was negative. Here’s an even scarier Tweet.

I’m in the worst movie ever, Knowing. Horrible.

Think about this. Someone is sitting in the theatre on a Friday night, and, while the movie is still playing, they send out a terrible personal review. Studios used to be able to count on suckering people into theatres for a bad movie as long as they had a big star and some cool commercials. Now, because of texting, Twitter and even Facebook (which has switched to a more Twitter-like status report format), poor reviews from Friday ticket-buyers may depress box office on Saturday and Sunday.

You have to wonder who is giving Academy Award winner Nicolas Cage career advice. Look at the Rotten Tomatoes review scores for his last 10 movies.

ROTTEN TOMATOES REVIEW SCORES FOR THE LAST 10 NIC CAGE MOVIES
-live action lead roles -
Knowing – 25%
Bangkok Dangerous – 9%
Ghost Rider – 27%
National Treasure 2 – 32%
Next – 30%
The Wicker Man – 15%
World Trade Center – 70%
Lord of War – 61%
The Weather Man – 57%
National Treasure – 43%

Obviously, there is sometimes a huge disconnect between critical and commercial success. Ghost Rider and the National Treasure films were huge blockbuster hits, but The Wicker Man, Next, and Bangkok Dangerous were flat-out awful.

From Best Actor to WICKER MAN

Despite initial reactions, the family-friendly PG-13 rating and similarity to National Treasure will still sell some tickets in the next few weeks. The movie is likely headed to something in the $52-$60M range in the US, and it will likely perform fairly well overseas because of Cage’s drawing power.

Jason Segal (left) and Paul Rudd, the likable stars of John Hamburg's I LOVE YOU, MAN

At #2 for the day, and most likely for the 3-day, is John Hamburg’s I Love You, Man starring Paul Rudd and Jason Segal. Riding phenomenal reviews (81% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and huge buzz from its screening at the South By Southwest Conference and Festival, the R-rated comedy has opened to about $6.35M Friday, and I am projecting $18M for opening weekend.

Among the Twitteratti (tech slang for the early adopters of Twitter), I Love You, Man is already a word-of-mouth hit. Here are some sample Tweets.

go see I Love You Man, its HILARIOUS.

i love you, man is one of the funniest movies i have seen in a while.

Just saw I Love You, Man. Waaaaaay funnier than I expected. Oh god, it was good. Stay a little bit into the credits if you go.

Just saw “I love you, Man” it was awesome!

Just saw “I Love You Man.” Loved it! Haven’t laughed that hard in awhile!

I love I Love You, Man. I’m also in love with Rashida Jones.

“I Love You, Man” – while not lol hysterical, was pretty funny in parts (albeit raunchy) … overall, I enjoyed it … solid B or B+

We are in a sort of a Golden Age for raunchy R-rated comedy, and this movie is an above average example. Rudd, who made his name as a supporting player in Judd Apatow films like Anchorman and The 40-Year-Old Virgin, is on a roll. Fresh from the success of last year’s Role Models ($67.3M US), he is the protagonist here, playing a charming dork without a best friend to be the best man at his wedding. Enter Jason Segal from TV’s How I Met Your Mother, a guy who scored huge with last year’s sleeper hit Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($63.1M domestic). As Sydney Fife, Segal is the ideal Venice Beach bum talking about his “Man Cave” and idolizing the band Rush, which reached its pinnacle in the 70’s and 80’s.

Writer/director John Hamburg

Writer/director John Hamburg, who previously wrote the classic Meet the Parents, followed by Zoolander (a cult fave of many) and Meet the Fockers (a mega-hit with over $500M worldwide despite falling well short of the laughs in the original Meet the Parents), made his directorial debut with the forgettable Along Came Polly ($88M domestic), starring Ben Stiller and Jennifer Aniston.

Rashida Jones, the daughter of musical legend Quincy Jones and 1970's icon Peggy Lipton (THE MOD SQUAD), co-stars in I LOVE YOU, MAN

If you wouldn’t have shown me the credits for I Love You, Man, I would have assumed that comedy king Judd Apatow has something to do with this one, but his name is nowhere to be found. Hamburg has grabbed reliable Apatow players like Rudd and Segal (Apatow produced Forgetting Sarah Marshall and the short-lived TV series Undeclared, starring Segal), and created a pic that looks and feels like an Apatow movie.

In my mind, the so-called Golden Age of R-rated comedy began in the summer of 2005 with Wedding Crashers and The 40-Year-Old Virgin. Audiences have a real appetite for this niche, and, aside from Will Ferrell’s misguided hoops pic Semi-Pro, The Heartbreak Kid from the Farrelly Brothers and Weinstein Company’s 2008 Zack & Miri Make a Porno, the movies have delivered both critically and commercially.

THE TOP 15 GROSSING R-RATED COMEDIES FROM “THE GOLDEN AGE”
1. 7/15/05 – Wedding Crashers – $33.9M opening – $209.2M cume
2. 8/17/07 – Superbad – $33M opening – $121.4M cume
3. 7/25/08 – Step Brothers – $30.9M opening – $100.4M cume
4. 6/1/07 – Knocked Up – $30.7M opening – $148.8M cume
5. 11/3/06 – Borat – $26.4M opening – $128.5M cume
6. 8/13/08 – Tropic Thunder – $25.8M opening – $110.5M cume
7. 8/6/08 – Pineapple Express – $23.2M opening – $87.3M cume
8. 8/19/05 – The 40-Year-Old Virgin – $21.4M opening – $109.4M cume
9. 11/7/08 – Role Models – $19.1M opening – $67.3M cume
10. 4/18/08 – Forgetting Sarah Marshall – $17.7M opening – $63.1M cume
11. 2/29/08 – Semi-Pro – $15M opening – $33.5M cume
12. 10/5/07 – The Heartbreak Kid – $14M opening – $36.8M cume
13. 9/21/07 – Good Luck Chuck – $13.6M opening – $35M cume
14. 10/31/08 – Zack & Miri Make A Porno – $10M opening – $31.4M cume
15. 8/25/06 – Beerfest – $7M opening – $19.2M cume

The multiple – the number you multiply opening weekend by in order to reach the final domestic gross – will be high here. My early rough projection for gross domestic box office for I Love You, Man is something in the $67M-$75M range.

Tony Gilroy with his MICHAEL CLAYTON star George Clooney

The other wide release is Tony Gilroy’s Duplicity (Universal), starring Oscar winner Julia Roberts and Academy Awards nominee Clive Owen. Gilroy is directing for only the second-time after his Oscar nominated performance with Michael Clayton. He is a writer first, and, in addition to scripting the three Jason Bourne movies, he loves corporate paranoia (like in 1997’s over-the-top The Devil’s Advocate) and intricate plotting (as in 2000’s Proof of Life and Michael Clayton). Duplicity plays to his strengths.

Does she still have "it"?

Despite the presence of the rarely-seen Roberts, the film has failed to top industry expectations. Duplicty grabbed an estimated $4.7M on opening day and seems headed for about $14.86M and fourth-place by Monday. I have been told that Duplicity received a very soft C rating from opening day audiences surveyed by CinemaScore, but because 25 Plus Females don’t always rush right out to see a movie, this one could still get to $40M-$45M domestic, which would be respectable.

I had penciled in Disney’s Race To Witch Mountain, starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, for #3 with about $17M, but the movie is not holding well at all. Race managed only $3.8M on its second Friday, and I am targeting $14.63M for the weekend. That’s a 10-day cume of a rather soft $46.34M. The Dreamworks Animation 3-D spectacle Monsters Vs. Aliens will wipe it out next weekend.

It's past Doomsday for WATCHMEN

Rounding out the top five is Watchmen (Warner Bros), suffering another 62% drop. The Zack Snyder-directed graphic novel adaptation sold just $2M in tickets Friday, and the 3-day will be about $7M, and possibly less. On Monday, the movie’s domestic take will be at $97.81M, and Watchmen will look to fizzle to about $110M in the US.

PLEASE NOTE: I appreciate links to this column, but on some sites, people have been copying and pasting the whole column. It’s fine if some numbers are re-printed, but please link for the full story. Thanks!

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $8.95M, $2,686 PTA, $8.95M cume
2. NEW – I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $6.35M, $2,342 PTA, $6.35M cume
3. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $4.7M, $1,825 PTA, $4.7M cume
4. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $3.8M, $1,192 PTA, $35.51M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $2M, $577 PTA, $93.36M cume
6. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $1.97M, $820 PTA, $20.09M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $1.37M, $517 PTA, $130.41M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $800,000, $391 PTA, $135.3M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $795,000, $433 PTA, $85.49M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $630,000, $440 PTA, 71.34M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $23.27M, $6,984 PTA, $23.27M cume
2. NEW – I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $18M, $6,640 PTA, $18M cume
3. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $14.63M, $4,591 PTA, $46.34M cume
4. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $13.86M, $5,384 PTA, $13.86M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $6.48M, $1,846 PTA, $97.81M cume
6. The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.31M, $2,213 PTA, $23.44M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $4.4M, $1,654 PTA, $133.43M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.93M, $1,428 PTA, $137.44M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.74M, $1,495 PTA, $87.44M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.29M, $1,607 PTA, $73M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.

In the spirit of March Madness, I’m calling for the upset. I Love You, Man may not actually be a Judd Apatow movie, but it sure does look like one in trailers and commercials. The movie reportedly “rocked the house” at the South By South West Festival last week, and the buzz is very positive. I am calling for $21.5M, which would be above industry expectations.

Robert DeNiro, hilarious in MEET THE PARENTS

Writer/director John Hamburg is at the helm with the likable Rudd and Segal in tow. He previously wrote Meet the Parents (brilliant) and its sequel Meet the Fockers (a lot less brilliant). He also wrote the cult hit Zoolander, which I hated, but has a loyal core of fans.

Meanwhile, tracking suggests that Knowing will open strongly. The reviews are generally negative (21% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but Roger Ebert of the Chicago Sun-Times has published a rave, saying that “Knowing is among the best science-fiction films I’ve seen — frightening, suspenseful, intelligent and, when it needs to be, rather awesome.”

Director Alex Proyas established himself as someone to watch with the striking visuals in 1998’s Dark City, and he followed with the commercially successful Will Smith vehicle I, Robot ($144.8M domestic) in 2004. But It’s been 14 long years since Nicolas Cage won his Academy Award for Best Actor, and he’s made a lot of bad movies since then. In fact, you could argue that nobody makes more bad movies than Cage. Captain Corelli’s Mandolin, Windtalkers, The Weather Man, The Wicker Man, Next and last fall’s Bangkok Dangerous were all commercial failures and critical disasters. Still, it’s hard to argue with the success of 2007’s Ghost Rider ($115.8M in the US) or the $800M worldwide box office generated by the National Treasure franchise.

Knowing looks an awful lot like National Treasure, and with Cage on familiar turf, the picture is likely to click. Industry expectations are that it will win the weekend, but I’m, calling for a #2 finish. I expect the movie to bank a possible $20.25M by Monday.

The third new wide release is Duplicity (Universal), which is running at 59% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. Director Tony Gilroy’s last movie was Michael Clayton, a 7-time Oscar nominee, and I was a huge fan of that George Clooney legal mystery-thriller. There is certainly room in the marketplace for a smart, grown-up movie right now, but whenever you have a film with 25 Plus appeal, the reality is that the audience doesn’t always show up on opening weekend.

The last major studio film with Julia Roberts as the clear lead was 2003’s Mona Lisa Smile ($11.5M opening – $63.8M). Here, she is re-teamed with Closer co-star Clive Owen, who received an Oscar nomination for his work in that dark Mike Nichols-directed relationship drama.

Oscar winner Julia Roberts with husband Danny Moder & kids with (faces blurred)

Is she still a movie star? I say the answer is yes, but her ingénue days are over. With Duplicity, Gilroy has crafted a sort of Mr. & Mrs. Smith with corporate espionage replacing gunplay, and this is exactly the kind of movie Roberts should be making. I am targeting $14.5M for opening weekend, which will likely be enough for a #4 finish, behind Disney’s family-themed Race To Witch Mountain. The latest starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson could dip only 30% to anout $17.1M.

FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 20-22
1. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $21.5M
2. Knowing (Summit) – $20.25M
3. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $17.1M
4. Duplicity (Universal) – $14.5M
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $9.6M
6. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $6.35M
7. Taken (Fox) – $5.1M
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $3.8M
9. Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $3.45M
10. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $2.35M

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.