In that race, many people see the competition coming down to “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker,” the two movies with nine nominations each. According to the LA Times, “Over the last 20 years, the movie with the most Academy Award nominations has won best picture 15 times.” Now that “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker” have received the same number of nominations, the award could go to either without much surprise. Although “The Hurt Locker” seems to be the front-runner for critics based off high-profile previous award shows, ”Avatar” still has a lot going for it.

Firstly, the special effects in the movie are fantastic. Few can deny that the visual aspects of the film are great and stand out as one, if not the, best thing about the movie. Secondly, many film critics have enjoyed the film and many in the industry have noted their support of this film giving this movie critical backing, both inside and outside of Hollywood. The film also has a liberal message about preserving the environment at all costs that some voting members could show appreciation for by voting for it. 

Lastly, the film has been a box office success. A huge box office success. Its enormous gross could help bring more viewers to the Oscar telecast.  A lot of people watched the “Titanic” Academy Awards, so one could assume that due to the comparable popularity of “Avatar,” more viewers will tune in this year to see if it wins. Far fewer people will have seen “The Hurt Locker” by the time the Oscars air.  Although many critics believe that “The Hurt Locker” was a stronger film than “Avatar” (and I agree with that analysis), what would be the political consequences if “The Hurt Locker” beat “Avatar” in the final showdown?

If the Academy Awards broadened their scope to include ten movies this year allowing more commercial successes to be nominated, what would it say if on Oscar night if the popular movies still lost out and a small, low-grossing Iraq war movie won? It is definitely possible that the ratings for this year will spike because of “Avatar” and the interest in the best picture race. It is also very possible that all of the bigger movies will lose and “The Hurt Locker” will win the biggest race of the night.

If that happens and the Academy repeats the same experiment of having ten best picture nominees and commercial successes get nominated alongside smaller movies, will the fans of the commercial successes nominated still watch the show next year? Will they still watch even if they think that the popular movies will still lose and the smaller less-seen movies will win? Is the Academy willing to accept lower ratings in the future if “Avatar” loses?

Entertainment Weekly’s Dave Kerger compiled a list of Oscar trivia that is helpful in analyzing the box office difference between “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker”.  “If Avatar wins Best Picture, it’ll be the highest-grossing winner ever (obviously),” Kerger writes, whereas if its main competition “The Hurt Locker” wins, “it’ll be the lowest-grossing winner ever.”

 As an MSNBC piece pointed out, in 1998, a similar battle took place between a critically-acclaimed film and a blockbuster epic. That article noted that  ”Critical consensus that year strongly backed ‘L.A. Confidential,’ a movie about Hollywood itself. ‘Titanic’ still sailed off with an extraordinary 11 awards, including best picture.” So it seems like Cameron has been in this battle before and he has emerged victorious from it. Could he pull off such a victory again, partly because of “Avatar”’s commercial success?

Entertainment Weekly’s  Owen Gleiberman recently explored the idea of “The Hurt Locker” beating “Avatar” this year in a fascinating article. He wrote the following about the role of commercial success in the Oscar battle: 

The vulgar way to put it would be: Hollywood, in the end, is all about the bottom line, and so a movie that doesn’t ‘perform’ isn’t eligible, according to the industry’s core values, for the most coveted of honors…A Hurt Locker victory would open the door to a new definition of Oscar glory, a defiant celebration of artistry over commerce. A win for Avatar would be, in its way, a definitive assertion of the same old same old.

Although I liked movies like “Up” and “Up in the Air” far better than I liked “Avatar” or “The Hurt Locker,” I agree with Mr. Gleiberman. “Avatar” may have earned enough money to be the box office leader in the world but that and the other attributes of the film should not be enough to win it the best picture Oscar.

We’ll have to wait until the envelope is opened to find out if “Avatar” does win. Until then, let’s hope that the Oscar ballots are not being filled out by inhabitants of the planet Pandora.

The Adam Sandler-produced comedy has broadened its audience, showing real family appeal. That led to stronger Saturday and Sunday matinees for a stellar $21.5M by Monday morning. That gives the movie a 10-day cume of just shy of $65M, which is impressive considering that it was budgeted at just $26M. After success as a supporting star in movies like Hitch ($179.5M cume) and I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry ($120M cume), it appears that James can open a movie without the help of Will Smith and Adam Sandler. Mall Cop dipped only 32% from last Friday-thru-Sunday (and that was part of a 4-day weekend, which can often lead to a sharper drop).

My Friday night projection column had Underworld: Rise of the Lycans as the #1 movie with $19.75M, and the picture actually improved on that number, finishing with an estimated $20.7M. The Patrick Tatopolous-directed prequel starring Michael Sheen (currently seen as David Frost in Best Picture nominee Frost/Nixon), but the movie finished with less than the original 2003 Underworld ($21.75M) and Underworld: Evolution’s $26.85M in 2006.

The missing ingredient would seem to be the very sexy Kate Beckinsale, who starred in the first two movies in skintight leather. Rise of the Lycans cost about $35M to make, so this picture will make money for Sony. The picture skewed very male (only 41% of the audience was female), but the surprise is that it also drew an older audience. In fact, only 45% of ticket-buyers were under 25.

Oscar voters were not friendly to Clint Eastwood this week. After scoring surprise nominations (Letters From Iwo Jima) and wins (Million Dollar Baby) in recent years, the screen icon was completely shut out on Thursday. No Best Actor nod for Gran Torino (Warner Bros). No Best Director nomination for either of his two well-received 2008 movies Gran Torino or Changeling. No nominations for composing the scores for either of those movies. Clint didn’t even receive a Best Original Song nomination for the haunting and heartfelt theme song from Gran Torino that he co-wrote with son Kyle and jazz vocalist Jamie Cullum.

Instead of an Oscar, Eastwood will settle for a blockbuster hit. Gran Torino, in which he plays a bigoted Korean War veteran who befriends a Hmong boy in a rough Detroit neighborhood, scored another $16M, down only 27% from the MLK 3-day. The micro-budgeted movie by a first-time screenwriter has now grossed a staggering $97.57M, and, sometime on Wednesday, it will surpass In the Line of Fire’s $102.3M, becoming Eastwood’s al-time #1 grossing movie.

The fourth-place finisher for the frame is the live action dog movie Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount), which fetched about $12.36M for a new 19-day cume of almost $37M.

Meanwhile, 10 Academy Award nominations have propelled Slumdog Millionaire to a wildly successful expansion. Widening to 1,411 playdates, Fox Searchlight has perfectly calibrated the platform release and coaxed a terrific $10.55M. It’s hard to believe that after being developed by the now-defunct Warner Independent Pictures, this $14M indie almost wound up going straight-to-video. Now Danny Boyle’s life-affirming masterpiece will have grossed almost $56M by Monday, and Slumdog will be selling a lot more tickets between now and Oscar day.

The other major studio release is Inkheart, which is the product of New Line (absorbed last year by Warner Bros). Based on a novel by Cornelia Funke and starring Brendan Fraser, Paul Bettany (The Da Vinci Code) and Academy Award winner Helen Mirren, this Narnia-wannabe never really had much of a chance. With tepid reviews (36% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and very low awareness according to pre-release industry tracking, Inkheart only mustered about $7.72M for the weekend, finishing a disappointing #7.

The most-nominated film of the year got a boost as well as The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) managed another $1.6M to start the 3-day, which translated to another top ten finish with a $6M weekend take (ninth for the 3-day). With nominations for Best Picture, Best Actor: Brad Pitt, Best Supporting Actress: Taraji P. Henson, Best Director: David Fincher, Best Adapted Screenplay: Eric Roth and Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat among others, Ben Button has a new domestic gross of $111M.

Three other Oscar nominated films got their post-nomination expansions. Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) was crushed by Thursday’s Oscar announcement, but still managed to do some decent business. Dreamworks was clearly banking on a nomination for Best Actress for Kate Winslet and an outside shot at a Best Picture nom, but the Sam Mendes-directed movie settled for nods for Best Supporting Actor: Michael Shannon, Best Art Direction and Best Costume Design: Albert Wolsky. Rolling out on 1,058 screens, the dark, domestic drama sold a respectable $5.26M in tickets over the 3-day for a $4,979 Per Theatre Average.

Mickey Rourke’s career-resurrecting performance in The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) grabbed an approximate $6,500 PTA for the weekend. With a more limited 566 playdates, the Darren Aronofsky-directed gem corralled about $3.7M for a new cume of $9.5M. The picture could get another boost if Rourke manages to win the Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Actor.

Finally, Best Picture nominee Frost/Nixon (Universal) has failed to ignite much interest despite 5 Academy Award nominations. Co-starring the aforementioned Michael Sheen, the Ron Howard-directed film has expanded to 1,100 locations, but it managed only a disappointing $3.02M for the weekend for a new cume of just $12M.

FINAL STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $21.5M, $$6,838 PTA, $64.8M cume
2. NEW – Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) – $20.7M, $7,036 PTA, $20.7M cume
3. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $16M, $5,255, $97.57M cume
4. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $12.36M, $3,779 PTA, $36.95M cume
5. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $10.55M, $7,477 PTA, $55.91M cume
6. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) – $10.05M, $3,966 PTA, $37.72M cume
7. NEW – Inkheart (Warner Bros) – $7.72M, $2,910 PTA, $7.72M cume
8. Bride Wars (Fox) – $7M, $2,671 PTA, $48.7M cume
9. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $6M, $2,651 PTA, $111M cume
10. Notorious (Fox Searchlight) – $5.7M, $3,473 PTA, $31.79M cume
11. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $5.43M, $3,030 PTA, $18.32M cume
12. Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.26M, $4,979 PTA, $11.86M
*The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $3.9M, $6,890 PTA, $9.71M cume
*Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $3.24M, $2,948 PTA, $12.22M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.