Julia Roberts and Clive Owen star in the fun, smart DUPLICITY, from writer/director Tony Gilroy

Roberts’ last starring role was in 2003’s Mona Lisa Smile ($63.8M domestic), and since then she has become a full-time Mom. Overall, she has 8 movies on her resume that have reached $100M in the US with her as a lead (I’m not including the Ocean’s Eleven franchise). Her most successful string of movies started in 1997 with My Best Friend’s Wedding ($127.1M cume) and ended with her Oscar winning performance in Erin Brockovich ($125.6M cume). During that span, she starred in 6 movies, generating an average of $115M in domestic box office.

Katherine Heigl is one of the actresses getting all of Roberts' old ingenue roles

But, she has entered the “danger zone” for any actress. All the types of roles that Julia used to turn into $100M blockbusters are going to Katherine Heigl, Kate Hudson, Anne Hathaway, Reese Witherspoon and Elizabeth Banks. What’s a 40+ woman to do?

DUPLICITY writer/director Tony Gilroy

She should be looking for smartly-written, age appropriate movies with some pedigree (co-stars, director, etc.). That is exactly what Duplicity is. Writer/director Tony Gilroy wrote the Jason Bourne movies, and his last film, Michael Clayton, was nominated for 7 Academy Awards. The result is an excellent movie. Clever, smart and charming, and Julia Roberts isn’t trying to pass herself off as an ingénue. The movie was expected to open to about $15M, and that’s exactly what it did, and still, bloggers write things like Julia’s Comeback: Audiences Say Go Back and people question if she’s still a draw.

For comparison sake, here is, to the best of my knowledge, the all-time box office champs for movies starring 40+ actresses above the title.

Glenn Close as Alex Forrest in FATAL ATTRACTION grabbed over $156M

ALL-TIME TOP 15 GROSSING MOVIES WITH A 40+ FEMALE LEAD
1. Fatal Attraction – Glenn Close (40) – $156.6M cume
2. Sex & the City – Sarah Jessica Parker (43) – $152.6M cume
3. Mamma Mia! – Meryl Streep (59) – $144.1M cume
4. 101 Dalmations – Glenn Close (49) – $136.2M cume
5. The Devil Wears Prada – (57) – $124.7M cume
6. Something’s Gotta Give – Diane Keaton (57) – $124.7M cume
7. On Golden Pond – Katherine Hepburn (74) – $119.2M cume
8. Terms of Endearment – Shirley MacLaine (49) – $108.4M cume
9. First Wives Club – Diane Keaton (50), Goldie Hawn (41), Bette Midler (51) – $105.5M cume
10. The Client – Susan Sarandon (48) – $92.1M cume
11. Flightplan – Jody Foster (43) – $89.7M cume
12. Moonstruck – Cher (41) – $80.6M cume
13. The Bridges of Madison County – Meryl Streep (46) – $71.5M cume
14. Bird On Wire – Goldie Hawn (45) – $70.9M cume
15. 102 Dalmations – Glenn Close (53) – $66.9M cume

In other words, it is a longshot for a mature woman to open a film in a big way. Last year, Hollywood gave us Mamma Mia! and Sex & The City, but they were both based on popular source material. The only other movies that starred 40+ actress to generate significant receipts were Australia ($49.5M cume) starring Nicole Kidman (40), Nim’s Island ($48M cume) featuring Jody Foster (46) and Nights in Rodanthe ($41.8M) with a 43-year-old Diane Lane.

Meryl Streep had Universal Studios execs jumping for joy with MAMMA MIA!

Given the nature of the business, is it really fair to say, “Julia Roberts can’t open a movie anymore?” The reality is that it is very rare that any woman north of 40 “opens” a movie, and let’s face it, ABBA opened Mamma Mia! and HBO created the success of Sex & The City.

In fact, I would argue that Duplicity is an excellent choice for the former $20M-per-movie star. You could argue that it is quite similar to Adam’s Rib, the movie that Katherine Hepburn starred in at the age of 41, a romantic comedy featuring she and Spencer Tracy as husband and wife operating, as lawyers on opposite sides of a big case. Duplicity is a very good modern-day parallel, not a classic like Adam’s Rib, but very good.

Kyra Sedgwick has scored big with THE CLOSER on TNT

Increasingly, the best roles for women 40+ are on television. Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer), Glenn Close (Damages), Holly Hunter (Saving Grace), Edie Falco (The Sopranos), Vanessa Williams (Ugly Betty) and Sally Field (Brothers & Sisters) have all found meaningful work on the small screen, but with two young kids, the TV series grind isn’t likely in the cards right now for Roberts right now.

Based on the $14.5M weekend and the fact that Females 25 Plus don’t often rush out to see a movie on opening weekend, I think it’s reasonable to project a $40M-$45M domestic gross – maybe even $50M. Michael Clayton only reached $49M in the US, so is Julia’s drawing power that much inferior to George Clooney?

In my mind, Duplicity is a creative success and, although the jury is out on commercial viability, it is by no means a disaster. Good for Julia Roberts that she has devoted herself to full-time motherhood. I’m glad she chose a project with an IQ, and I hope she continues making smart career choices. Her success will be of service to other actresses in Hollywood – those who are 40+ now, or will be someday.

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.