Tonight’s Tony Award Predictions
by Larry O'ConnorJoin Gary Graham, Tim Slagle, Moxie X. Cathedra, Stage Right and many more as Big Hollywood live-blogs the West Coast feed of the Tony Awards.
Tonight, 8:00 PM Pacific Time, Telecast on CBS.
It’s often said during Oscar season that there are two sets of predictions: Who WILL win, and who SHOULD win. It’s the same with Broadway’s Tony Awards but I often like to add a third prediction: What would be the best for business. Believe it or not, often times the Tony Awards seem to take into account the shows that “need” the award for marketing purposes. Even though one show stands out and seems to be the obvious choice to win the top prize, a surprise occurs and a David beats a Goliath thus ensuring a longer run for David. I will list a few examples for Best Musical travesties from the past that many might quarrel with in terms of the validity of the show that won, but the commercial outcome of the shows involved can’t be argued. You have a right to your own opinion, but not to your own facts.
1991: “Miss Saigon” has a multi-million-dollar advance, leads nominations with 11, wins Best Actor and Best Actress. Best Musical that year? “The Will Rogers Follies.” Without the award, “Will Rogers” would have not made it another six months. After winning the prize, it ran for two more years, had a successful tour and might still be running in Branson, MO. “Saigon” ran for a decade.
- Good musical? Sure. But, BEST Musical?
1994: Disney’s “Beauty and the Beast” opens with an enormous advance sale and enormous hype due to Disney’s first foray on Broadway. They receive 9 nominations and win only one award, for Best Costume Design. That year’s Best Musical: Stephen Sondheim’s “Passion.” “Passion” closes six months later and gets the dubious distinction of being the shortest running show ever to be named Best Musical, but without the award, it would have closed in a month. “Beauty” ran over 5,000 performances.
2004: “Wicked” is a mega-hit and gets 10 nominations. Best Musical? “Avenue Q”, the R-rated spoof of “Sesame Street” that continues to run because of the Best Musical Prize. “Wicked” also runs and continues to break Broadway Gross Sales records despite not winning the Best Musical award.
So, it is often the case that there are two strong contenders for the Best Musical award. Show A is a very popular show doing great business, but many voters in the industry rationalize that Show A “doesn’t NEED the award.” Meanwhile, Show B is just getting by and with the added benefit of winning Best Musical the show will run another year and launch a national tour.
With that in mind, I humbly submit my predictions of who WILL win, who SHOULD win, and which win would be best for business:
The star-studded cast of "God of Carnage"
Best Play
Dividing the Estate by Horton Foote
God of Carnage by Yasmina Reza
reasons to be pretty by Neil LaBute
33 Variations by Moisés Kaufman
“God of Carnage” WILL win, and SHOULD win, but with its star-studded cast already committed to an extension through November, it doesn’t NEED to win. If “reasons to be pretty” won it would give it the box office boost to keep running through the holidays or longer.
–
"Billy Elliot, the musical"
Best Musical:
Billy Elliot, The Musical
Next to Normal
Rock of Ages
Shrek the Musical
“Billy Elliot” is this year’s behemoth. It is HUGELY popular and the clear favorite. Not only is it doing great business and is wildly entertaining, but it has a huge “X factor” going for it that always helps a show win a Tony Award: It has gay themes. Any musical that focuses on gay issues and has a storyline about characters who strive for acceptance in a stereotypical conservative community always wins … always. So, it WILL win, and probably SHOULD win (although my heart belongs to Alice Ripley and “Next to Normal”). But, little Billy doesn’t NEED to win the award for sales. If you want to judge this purely on the most money that stands to be made on winning this award, put your money on the big green guy. It would be a HUGE upset, but so was “Avenue Q” over “Wicked.” Maybe this time the green make-up lobby will win out!
–
"Joe Turner's Come and Gone"
Best Revival of a Play:
Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Mary Stuart
The Norman Conquests
Waiting for Godot
August Wilson died a few years ago… They named a theatre after him… President Obama just went on a very expensive date to see it… “Joe Turner” WILL win. “Mary Stuart” SHOULD win, it is theatre at its finest. And seeing as how “Godot” is doing great business, “Joe” will win and get a great turnaround in sales.
–
The Jets in "West Side Story"
Best Revival of a Musical:
Guys and Dolls
Hair
Pal Joey
West Side Story
“Hair” WILL win for a lot of reasons. Mostly because it is positioned perfectly for the Tony voters’ sensibilities. They all LIVED the “Hair” life in one way or another and pretend to still be edgy Bohemians trying to shock mainstream America. That’s why they loved “Rent” so much… “Rent” was just “Hair” with HIV. “West Side Story” SHOULD win because.. well… IT’S “WEST SIDE STORY”!!!! Best win for business: “Guys and Dolls.”
–
Will Ferrell in "You're Welcome America: A Final Night With George W. Bush"
Tony Award for Best Special Theatrical Event:
Liza’s at The Palace…!
Slava’s Snowshow
Soul of Shaolin
You’re Welcome America – A Final Night with George W. Bush
Liza’s triumphant turn at the Palace (the same house which hosted her mother’s legendary concerts in 1968) SHOULD be acknowledged and awarded, but I doubt the voters can resist the opportunity to reward Will Ferrell for his hugely successful Bush-bash. Actually, giving Ferrell the Tony would be the best for business and sales, as well, because it would encourage other Hollywood actors in his genre to come to Broadway.
Note: The individual acting awards do not often fall under the “Best for Business” criteria, so I’ll give you a straight will/should in each:
–
Geoffrey Rush in "Exit the King"
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play:
Jeff Daniels – God of Carnage
Raul Esparza – Speed-the-Plow
James Gandolfini – God of Carnage
Geoffrey Rush – Exit the King
Thomas Sadoski – Reasons to Be Pretty
Will win: Geoffrey Rush
Should win: Geoffrey Rush
–
The stars of "Mary Stuart"
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play:
Hope Davis- God of Carnage
Jane Fonda – 33 Variations
Marcia Gay Harden – God of Carnage
Janet McTeer – Mary Stuart
Harriet Walter – Mary Stuart
Will win: Marcia Gay Harden (and let’s hope she makes some weird, 9/11 remark in the speech)
Should win: Janet McTeer
–
Brian d'Arcy James as Shrek
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical:
David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, and Kiril Kulish – Billy Elliot, The Musical
Gavin Creel – Hair
Brian d’Arcy James – Shrek The Musical
Constantine Maroulis – Rock of Ages
J. Robert Spencer – Next to Normal
Will win: David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, and Kiril Kulish (three different boys split time each week playing the title role in “Billy Elliot”)
Should win: Brian d’Arcy James
–
Alice Ripley in "Next to Normal"
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Stockard Channing – Pal Joey
Sutton Foster – Shrek The Musical
Allison Janney – 9 to 5: The Musical
Alice Ripley – Next to Normal
Josefina Scaglione – West Side Story
Who will win: Alice Ripley
Who should win: Alice Ripley
Last prediction: Gay Marriage will be the most joked about, pontificated about, and ranted about issue on the stage. You’re going to hear about it from the host, Neil Patrick Harris, all the way down to the winner of the most obscure technical award. Get ready for being called a bigot and a hater if you think marriage means one man and one woman.
Buckle-up and enjoy the evening. It should be a pretty entertaining show. I’ll switch over as soon as the Laker game is over. (I’m kidding! That’s why God invented picture-in-picture)
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19 Comments
Okay, so I just saw "God of Carnage" on Friday and can you explain to me why it should win? Because I just don't get it. It's not that I don't understand the play, it's that I don't understand the why it's getting all this great buzz. It just seemed like a very thin shadow of "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf". Maybe I'm missing something.
Bev… I don't completely disagree with you, although I do think there is more to it than that. And I appreciated the fact that the play challenges some PC thinking…. But I think it SHOULD win mostly because it is the best among a pretty weak field.
My real favorite was "Irena's Vow" and I hate that it and Tovah did not get nominated.
My Tony Award Predictions:
1. I will not care.
2. I will not watch.
100% Accuracy Guaranteed.
Then why post?
A very interesting analysis. I'm familiar with this at the Oscars, but not having lived in New York for many years, I haven't seen the workings of Broadway awards. At least when the shows finally make it to the left coast, I'll have a general idea of what to expect. I'm looking forward to the results for the fun of seeing how your predictions work out.
"Hair" was wonderful, cultural artifact that it is, especially for the infectious exuberance of the performers. I thoroughly enjoyed the cavorting hippies, but I have strong nostalgia for the music, and I really liked the costumes. (There's more than one long denim skirt & pair of Birkenstocks in my closet, that's all I'll say.) It's the show I'm pulling for, although from clips I've seen "West Side Story" looks good. Still, its street gangs come off as about as realistic and threatening as a troop of Boy Scouts. (And "Rent" was great back in the day! It got dated real quick, but I still throw in the music every now and then) Looking forward to tonight, I just hope they'll finally figure out a way to pull off the play excerpts which always come off as awkward.
You ARE a bigot and a hater if you think marriage means one man and one woman.
Absolutely right! I saw the play three times. Once Off-Broadway twice on Broadway. It was a deeply moving experience for me and the entire audience. The audience reaction was tremendous. You don't often get that. I'm not a big Tovah Feldshuh fan but she was Great no question about it. The entire cast brings it. I even saw Tovahs understudy do it Tina Benko she was as fine as Tovah and she was. Needless to say I recommend the play and agree with you that it should have been nominated. Just one mans opinion.
well, I am pretty sure a bigot is by definition a hater, so can't i just be a bigot on this one? I mean, you know, according to you. Now as far as the left goes, well, I am absolutely a hater, but definitely not a bigot. But either way the speeches should be entertaining, in that traffic accident sort of way.
In your opinion Stage Right, do you think this year's nominees was overly swayed by PC politics and a zeitgeisty "it's the spirit of the times so we must vote for it" mantra, or were most nominees honestly amazing works in their own right and rightfully deserved to be nominated? I ask this because I saw the 39 Steps and Equus and found both shows to be amazing. Was flabbergasted when they were not nominated for more awards, and wondered if they were truly overshadowed by more superior works, of if something else was at work in snubbing them. I read your fantastic earlier piece about the snubs, which helped clear some things up, but still have lingering questions.
Then that means Obama is a bigot!
Good thing he went out of town this weekend. All the jokes and insults the Tony people will make about his position won't hurt his feelings so much.
I kinda agree with kadaka. As a straight male, I'll probably be watching some Sunday night movie with lots of karate and explosions. Sorry!
Although I am dying to see what outfit Rosie O'Donnell wears!
Liz, I don't think PC sensibilities played much more of a factor this year, any more than it has in the past. I do think "Irena's Vow" was not embraced because of the sub-plot involving abortion, but I could just be paranoid. I think Equus was not nominatted because it was a limited run, made a lot of money, already closed, and would have no financial benefit from getting a nomination. They try really hard to nominate only shows that are still running at the time of the awards, that is why so many plays tend to open in March and April.
Sorry, my brain is not working and spaced 39 Steps was nominated last year. Still sad for Equus.
"'Rent' was just 'Hair' with HIV."
That is a great line.
Do you think it could've just been "Not the Holocaust _again_??" (Irina's Vow)
No, because Hollywood has OD'd on Holocaust… not Broadway. You know, Dan Gordon the playwright got the idea to write the play after hearing the real Irena interviewed on the Dennis Prager show. So, maybe it was doomed the moment the playwright admitted he listens to conservative talk radio!
So how many Hail Obamas do you think there are going to be?
Remember, what ever goes wrong, from now 'til the end of time "It's Bush's fault."
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