Steve Mason is an accomplished and versatile writer and broadcaster with extensive experience on both television and radio. He is a frequent contributor to ESPN, Reelz Channel, E! Entertainment Television, Fox News Channel, and TV Guide Channel among others, offering his expertise on sports and the entertainment industry.
He has interviewed hundreds of athletes, Hollywood executives and stars and newsmakers over the years including Kobe Bryant, Tom Hanks, President George W. Bush, Tiger Woods, Jamie Foxx, Leslie Moonvies, Catherine Zeta Jones, Peyton Manning, Senator John McCain, Spike Lee, Lynda Obst, Annika Sorenstam, Brandon Tartikoff, Pete Carroll, President Jimmy Carter, and Sir Ben Kingsley, to name just a few. He has been front and center at major sporting events like the Super Bowl, the World Series, and the NBA Finals, and on the red carpet reporting from the Academy Awards, the ESPY Awards, and major movie premieres. He has been part of Olympics broadcast coverage at every Olympiad since 1998, hosted the nationally syndicated “Late, Late Radio Show with Tom Snyder & Steve Mason,” and he is currently the co-host of the #1-rated midday sports talk radio show in Los Angeles on 710 ESPN Radio. Steve covers the Hollywood box office beat and is generally regarded as the film industry’s top box office expert. He is the lead box office analyst for Reelz Channel and is the weekly television host of “Reelz in the Round.” He has served as lead box office analyst for HollywoodWiretap.com, Hollywood.com, and FantasyMoguls.com.
He has a real working knowledge of the film industry as a theater owner. He is the President and CEO of Flagship Theatre Corporation, which owns and operates The University Village 3 Theatres in Los Angeles and Cinemas Palme d'Or, a 10-screen high-end commercial/arthouse, in Palm Desert, California.
Steve Mason
PAUL BLART: MALL COP likely to unseat Clint Eastwood as box office champ this weekend; MY BLOODY VALENTINE 3-D is hurt by slow conversion to digital, but could still reach $20M; NOTORIOUS targets $10M!
by Steve MasonThe Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend brings four new wide releases to America’s multiplexes along with one major expansion. The Monday holiday means stronger-than-average business on Sunday and a bonus fourth day of steady sales, especially for younger-skewing movies. The battle for first place appears to pit an overweight security guy on a Segway against Clint Eastwood’s “Get off my lawn” tour de force in Gran Torino (Warner Bros).
Just the fact that 78-year old Eastwood is in the conversation is a stunning upset. The industry expected a mid-teens expansion last weekend for what could be Clint’s final acting performance, and instead, the super-charged Torino tapped into a much larger audience to the tune of almost $30M. As expected, the movie played well with the 50+ crowd (40% of its audience last weekend), but 25% of ticket buyers were under the age of 25. Word-of-mouth is very positive as the political incorrectness of Eastwood’s Walt Kowalski character gives the picture plenty of laughs along with its poignant, redemptive ending.
I am predicting that Gran Torino may add another $25M over the long four-day weekend with a new cume of $77.17M by Tuesday morning. That would make this modestly-budgeted movie, based on Minneapolis native Nick Schenk’s first screenplay, Eastwood’s all-time fourth biggest movie as an actor.
ALL-TIME TOP 5 CLINT EASTWOOD MOVIES
1. In the Line of Fire – $102.3M cume
2. The Unforgiven – $101.1M cume
3. Million Dollar Baby – $100.5M
4. Gran Torino – $77.17M cume (predicted by Tuesday)
5. Space Cowboys – $90.4M cume
With the odds of a Best Actor nomination improving by the day, there is no question that Gran Torino will wind up as Eastwood’s biggest-grossing movie ever with $120M-$125M possible.
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GLOBES AFTERMATH: ‘Slumdog’ landslide damages ‘Benjamin Button”; Winslet double-win unprecedented, but Cruz may still win at Oscars; Will Academy voters roll the dice with Rourke?
by Steve MasonThe 2009 Golden Globe Awards are in the books, and, for an entertainment junkie like me, it was great fun. On launch day for Big Hollywood, I published my predictions for all 25 categories with plenty of analysis.
I am happy to report that I made 18 winning picks, which is certainly respectable. That includes the winning selections in 13 of the 15 film categories.
BEST PICTURE – DRAMA
THE WINNER: Slumdog Millionaire
MY PICK: Slumdog Millionaire
(more…)
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‘GRAN TORINO’ FITTING AS EASTWOOD’S FINAL FILM: John Wayne leads list of 10 Best Final Performances in Acting History!
by Steve MasonI have spent most of my career reporting on and studying sports and entertainment. Athletes and actors have very similar personality traits. In fact, many athletes secretly harbor acting aspirations and plenty of actors wish they could have been pro ballplayers and wind up playing in celebrity all-star games and pro ams.
Some athletes successfully made the transition, like The Dirty Dozen’s Jim Brown, Fred Dryer (TV’s Hunter), My Name Is Earl’s Jason Lee (pro skateboarder) and former Laker Rick Fox (Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns). Others have provided comic relief like Kareem Abdul Jabaar (Airplane!) Julius Irving in 1979’s The Fish That Saved Pittsburgh and, most ridiculous of all, Shaquile O’Neal in Kazaam.
The difficult decision that athletes and actors have in common is when to quit. In baseball, Hall of Famer Willie Mayes lumbered through the outfield for the Mets at Shea Stadium well past his prime, and there was something sad at about watching legendary lefty Steve Carlton as a long reliever for the Minnesota Twins. Boxers like George Foreman and Muhammad Ali are famous for hanging on too long, and we are about to enter another NFL off-season where future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre will teeter between retirement and one more season.
Actors are also reluctant to “hang it up,” often working despite declining skills in projects not befitting their excellent resumes. Academy Award winner Jimmy Stewart’s final two jobs were as a guest voice on the 1992 Disney series cartoon Goof Troop and as voice talent in the forgettable animated feature An American Tail: Fievel Goes West. Frank Sinatra’s last few credits included Cannonball Run II (1984), a guest starring role on Magnum P.I. and as a voice on the animated Nikelodeon series Hey Arnold. Meanwhile, Oscar winner and six-time nominee Greer Garson’s final IMDb entry is for an episode of The Love Boat.
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CLINT EASTWOOD SAVES HIS BIGGEST FOR LAST!: ‘Gran Torino’ grabs his best-ever wide opening with $29M! Could a Best Actor nomination be next?
by Steve MasonSUNDAY 10AM: As I first reported Friday night, Clint Eastwood is king this weekend at the box office, and although Gran Torino (Warner Bros) didn’t quite reach $30M, its final 3-day studio estimate of $29M is still easily the best of his storied career. (Scroll down to read my Friday story.) The commercial success of what may be Eastwood’s final acting performance has definitely changed the dynamics of the Best Actor race. Clint now has a real shot at his third Best Actor nomination, despite being snubbed by both the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards.
The rest of the final studio figures are essentially as I reported Friday. For new readers at Big Hollywood, I publish two different kinds of numbers. Usually on Wednesday or Thursday, I write a prediction column. During the week, I have regular conversations with studio execs, get some analysis on pre-release industry tracking (audience surveys) and develop a feel for how movies may perform based on my years as an exhibitor.
Predictions are just that. Well-educated guesses. I think I have a pretty good batting average on my predictions, but I subscribe to William Goldman’s old show biz adage, “Nobody knows anything.” I can be off and sometimes dead wrong.
But, when I publish numbers on Friday night, they are projections. This week is a good example. My Friday night projections all match today’s studio estimates within a few percentage points. Projections are based on conversations with key sources who have access to early raw sales data, and we are able to plug those figures into a model to establish Early Friday & 3-Day Estimates. When you read my Friday night column here, you can basically take those numbers to the bank.
FINAL STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $29.02M, $10,337 PTA, $40M cume
2. NEW – Bride Wars (Fox) – $21.5M, $6,665 PTA, $21.5M cume
3. NEW – The Unborn (Rogue) – $21.09M, $8,950 PTA, $21.09M cume
3. Marley & Me (Fox) – $11.35M, $3,263 PTA, $123.7M cume
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $9.45M, $3,207 PTA, $94.33M cume
6. Bedtime Stories (Disney) – $8.55M, $2,435 PTA, $97.18M cume
7. Valkyrie (UA/MGM) – $6.66M, $2,347 PTA, $71.5M cume
8. Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $6.15M, $2,083 PTA, $89.4M cume
9. NEW – Not Easily Broken (Sony) – $5.6M, $7,735 PTA, $5.6M cume
10. Seven Pounds (Sony) – $3.9M, $1,588 PTA, $66.83M cume
11. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $3.73M, $6,206 PTA, $34.07M cume
12. Twilight (Summit) – $2.78M, $1,902 PTA, $181.39M cume
13. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $2.64M, $1,150 PTA, $47.49M cume
14. Doubt (Miramax) – $2.5M, $1,945 PTA, $22.94M cume
*Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks Paramount) – $1.44M, $10,667 PTA, $3.17M cume
*The Reader (Weinstein) – $1.35M, $2,667 PTA, $5.51M cume
*Milk (Focus) – $1.25M, $4,241 PTA, $19.12M cume
*Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $912,000, $4,449 PTA, $7.65M cume
*The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $874,000, $14,567 PTA, $2.84M cume
*Last Chance Harvey (Overture) – $151,000, $9,438 PTA, $541,000 cume
*Waltz With Bashir (Sony Classics) – $80,900, $10,113 PTA, $364,000 cume
*Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $66,000, $33,000 PTA, $307,000 cume
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EARLY TRACKING: Kate Hudson-produced BRIDE WARS may hold off MARLEY & ME and GRAN TORINO for weekend win!
by Steve MasonA year ago, Fox scored a January hit with the female-geared 27 Dresses. The Katherine Heigl vehicle chick-flick opened with $23M on the weekend of January 18 en route to a nifty $76.8M domestic gross. Now Kate Hudson has produced and stars in the wedding-themed comedy Bride Wars, debuting on just over 3,000 screens in Friday.
Early reviews are downright awful for Bride Wars (00% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night), but Kate Hudson is a likable personality whose sub-par rom-com Fool’s Gold opened to $21.5M last February. Add to the mix Anne Hathaway with $100M-grossing movies Get Smart ($130.3M cume) and The Devil Wears Prada ($124.7) on her recent resume, and you’ve got a picture that could win the weekend. Tracking is strong with Under 25’s, and the Mean Girls-style marketing improves the chances that Under 25 Males will allow themselves to be dragged along to see it.
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GOLDEN GLOBE PREDIX: SLUMDOG, Rourke, Winslet, 30 ROCK and HBO’s JOHN ADAMS possible big winners!
by Steve MasonSteve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
Last January, Hollywood was in the midst of the disastrous WGA strike forcing the cancellation of the Golden Globe Awards ceremony. It was painful to watch Access Hollywood’s Billy Bush and Nancy O’Dell announce the winners and attempt to provide insightful commentary about films and performances that they likely did not see. The whole thing came off as a promo for Access, and it was a disaster for the industry.
The Globes are not necessarily a perfect barometer for artistic success. Ninety-five or so “journalists” representing off-brand and/or inconspicuous publications from approximately forty-eight countries get to vote, and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is prone to impropriety.
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STUDIO ESTIMATES: MARLEY & ME with $24M 3-day and lovable lab could be the #1 live action pooch ever; BEDTIME STORIES reaches $20M & could hit $130M domestic; BUTTON #3 with $18.4M; VALKYRIE adds another $14M, but can UA make a profit?; DEFIANCE huge with $60K PTA!
by Steve MasonSteve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
SUNDAY MORNING: In Studio 3-Day Estimates, the top 5 for the first weekend of 2009 remain the same as the order of finish for Christmas weekend. Marley & Me (Fox) remains the canine king of the box office with an estimated $24M for a new 11-day cume of $106.51M.
The appeal of dogs on the big screen is no surprise. As I wrote Friday night (scroll down), this lovable golden lab is may reach $160M domestic, making Marley & Me the #1 live action dog movie of all time. The real message for Hollywood honchos may be to keep their eyes on book sales. Although numbers are hard to come by, this simple, sweet John Grogan memoir about his rambunctious dog was the #1 selling fiction book of 2006, and it has likely sold about 5 million copies. It continues to sell, #1 on the NY Times Paperback Nonfiction Bestseller list right now.
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Warner Bros reaches $1.74 billion domestic surpassing Sony’s record set in 2006!; MARLEY & ME headed for $51.8M 4-Day with BEN BUTTON at $39.1M & BEDTIME STORIES at $38.6M!; REV ROAD with Best PTA of 2008!
by Steve MasonSteve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
SUNDAY MORNING: Dog lovers everywhere united to make Fox’s Marley & Me the #1 Christmas weekend movie with an expected $51.18M in the Thursday-thru-Sunday period for a Per Theatre Average of $14,888. Pre-opening industry tracking pointed to a clear win for Bedtime Stories (Disney), but it was the lovable lab who finished on top.
As an aside, all of us who read John Grogan’s extraordinarily well-written novel should have seen this coming. The book is a joy, and anyone who has a dog, or has ever had a dog, could easily identify with the struggles and pleasures of having a 4-legged member of the family.
The success of Marley slightly mitigates a disastrous year for Fox. Its year started out well enough riding the huge success of 2007 release Alvin & the Chipmunks into January ($70M of Alvin’s gross landed in this calendar year). The January 18 release of chick-flick 27 Dresses scored for Katherine Heigl ($76.8M in the US), then Jumper was a good solid February hit, topping $80M, followed by the wildly successful Horton Hears a Who ($154.5M domestic). Little did Fox know that when the Ashton Kutcher-Cameron Diaz comedy What Happens in Vegas played solidly to the tune of $80.2M domestic starting in May, it would be its last legit hit until Christmas’ Marley & Me. This is a huge, redemptive win for Fox, and its sentimental tear-jerker of a dog movie could near $100M domestic by Sunday.
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FINAL CHRISTMAS 4-DAY TRACKING: ‘Bedtime Stories’ could be the all-time biggest Christmas Day opening headed for a possible $47.3M by Monday!; $36.1M for ‘Marley & Me,’ $27.8M for ‘Benjamin Button,’ $23.5M for ‘Valkerie’ and $17.75M for ‘The Spirit’!
by Steve MasonIn the movie business, there are no real holidays, and tonight, while the studio executives are nestled all snug in their beds, visions of big Christmas Day box office receipts dance in their heads. Five major wide releases arrive in shiny new packages for the holiday, plus there are three strong holdovers from Friday.
In the final pre-Christmas industry tracking, the three movies that appear ready to pop big are Bedtime Stories (Disney), Fox’s Marley & Me and Best Picture front-runner The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount), but the big winner will clearly be Sandler with his family-friendly fantasy/comedy.
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FINAL STUDIO ESTIMATES: ‘Yes Man’ and may lift Warner Bros to all-time one year studio domestic sales record!; ‘Seven Pounds’ stumbles to $16M, ending Will’s streak of consecutive $100M grossing movies!; ‘The Wrestler’ with a huge $52K PTA!
by Steve MasonThe final studio estimates are in, and, as I first wrote Friday night, Jim Carrey’s Yes Man (Warner Bros) is the weekend winner, although the performance of the film was softer-than-expected. When the movie started with a soft $6.7M on Friday, it was hard to tell if it was because snowstorms in several regions of the country or just a failure to connect with audiences. Saturday’s small 3% increase to $6.7M appears to suggest the latter.
Still, Yes Man is performing well enough to help Warner Bros make history in the next couple of weeks. I am projecting that the film could bank a possible $48M (conservatively) before the end of the year. Add to that a projected cume of $120M for Four Christmases by the close of business on December 31, and an anticipated $5.4M or so from the limited engagements of Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (70 playdates starting Christmas Day), and Warner Bros would reach an annual domestic sales figure of $1.75 billion, surpassing Sony’s $1.71 billion take in 2006.
Meanwhile, Will Smith’s re-teaming with Pursuit of Happyness director Gabriele Muccino received a 9% Saturday bump from Friday’s $5.22M, but the movie still placed second with an estimated $16M. That represents the softest opening for Will since 2000’s Ali ($14.7M). Seven Pounds is almost-certain to break his historic streak of consecutive $100M+ grossing movies, which will end at 8.
For complete analysis of how Yes Man may cinch Warner Bros’ record-breaking year and what the tough opening Seven Pounds means to Will Smith, visit my Friday Night Early Estimates column and my Final Weekend Tracking column from Thursday. For details on the monstrous opening weekend success of The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) and details on the successful expansions of Gran Torino and Doubt (Miramax), check out my Saturday update.
EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON REVISED EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $18.16M, $5,288 PTA, $18.16M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $16M, $5,801 PTA, $16M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $10.5M, $3,385 PTA, $10.5M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $10.15M, $2,851 PTA, $48.62M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $7.74M, $2,203 PTA, $100.15M cume
6. Twilight (Summit) – $5.22M, $1,748 PTA, $158.46M cume
7. Bolt (Disney) -$4.25M, $1,434 PTA, $95M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $3.15M, $5,348 PTA, $12.13M cume
9. Australia (Fox) – $2.32M, $1,051PTA, $41.94M cume
10. Quantum of Solace (Sony) – $2.15M, $1,147 PTA, $161.3M cume
11. Milk (Focus) – $1.64M, $4,610 PTA, $10.32M cume
12. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.51M, $752 PTA, $172.33M cume
13. Nothing Like the Holidays (Overture) – $1.31M, $789 PTA, $5.94M cume
14. Doubt (Miramax) – $729,000, $18,692 PTA, $1.44M cume
*Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $468,000, $24,632 PTA, $859,000 cume
*Frost/Nixon – $365,000, $8,902 PTA, $1.47M
*NEW – The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $209,000, $52,250 PTA, $295,000 cume
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SATURDAY UPDATE: ‘The Wrestler’ headed for the year’s second-best PTA with an estimated $53,438!; ‘Gran Torino’ expands to $23,400 per location while ‘Doubt’ heads for an $18,000 PTA!
by Steve MasonSteve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
Bad weather with several major storms, including one in the Northeast, are making this a challenging weekend to project. I have revised my the 3-day estimates I released last night to allow for films to enjoy slightly stronger Saturdays, but the general story is the same. Jim Carrey and Yes Man (Warner Bros) at #1, Will Smith and Seven Pounds (Sony) at #2 and Tale of Despereaux (Universal) at #3.
My major analysis piece I published Friday night still stands with the headlines being that Warner Bros now seems destined to cinch the all-time best one year domestic sales figure in studio history and Will Smith’s streak of consecutive $100M grossing movies will almost certainly end at 8 with his Gabriele Muccino-directed drama.
One major change is that Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) hasn’t expanded nearly as well as I originally projected. The almost certain Best Picture nominee increased to 589 locations this weekend and the result will be a likely 8th-place finish with about $2.94M and a PTA of $4,999 or so.
EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON REVISED EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $19.5M, $5,684 PTA, $19.5M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $16M, $5,806 PTA, $16M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $14.09M, $4,540 PTA, $14.09M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $8.97M, $2,522 PTA, $47.54M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $7.3M, $2,080 PTA, $99.72M cume
6. Twilight (Summit) – $5.1M, $1,706 PTA, $158.3M cume
7. Bolt (Disney) -$4.45M, $1,501 PTA, $95.2M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.94M, $4,999 PTA, $11.92M cume
9. Australia (Fox) – $2.15M, $975 PTA, $41.77M cume
10. Quantum of Solace (Sony) – $1.6M, $798 PTA, $172.4M cume
11. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.6M, $798 PTA, $172.42M cume
12. Milk (Focus) – $1.57M, $4,417 PTA, $10.25M cume
13. Nothing Like the Holidays (Overture) – $1.15M, $689 PTA, $5.77M cume
On the specialty front, Mickey Rourke is a box office attraction again. The one-time movie star was at his peak in the 1980’s with movie like Diner ($14M cume), The Pope of Greenwich Village ($6.8M cume), 9 1/2 Weeks ($6.7M cume) and Angel Heart ($17.1M cume) is riding the crest of an enormous comeback wave. His role in Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) has already earned him a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actor – Drama and Independent Spirit Award nomination for Best Male Lead and a SAG Award nomination for Best Male Actor, and now the film has scored a huge opening weekend Per Theatre Average.
The Wrestler opened on Wednesday at 4 locations managing an outstanding $11,732 PTA. The extraordinarily well-reviewed movie is headed for a 3-day of $210,900, which will translate to an estimated $53,438 per location. That marks the second-best PTA of the year, trailing only the $60,236 debut of Frost/Nixon (Universal) two weeks ago.
At #2 on the weekend PTA scoreboard is Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (Warner Bros), which is a bit of a disappointment registering an average of approximately $23,400 at each of its 19 playdates. As Eastwood has admitted, this may be his final on-screen performance, but when the Hollywood Foreign Press ignored him in its annual Golden Globe nominations and then the SAG Awards bypassed the screen legend as well in the Best Male Actor category, it likely damaged the movie’s ability to compete on a limited basis with other pictures with stronger awards resumes.
In my Friday Night Estimates story, I wrote that Gran Torino may be able to bank $5.4M by the end of the year. Even with an expansion to 70 locations on Christmas Day, the softer-than-expected Friday probably means that Clint’s “swan song” is more likely to be at $3.1M or so at the end of business of December 31. Regardless, I am still projecting that Warner Bros will likely break the all-time one-year record for domestic sales for a studio.
John Patrick Shanley’s Doubt, a film adaptation of his Tony and Pulitzer Prize winning play, will bank about $703,000 or so this weekend at 39 locations for a PTA of just over $18,000. That compares favorably to recent movies like Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics), which managed $16,500 per screen in its first expansion (27 playdates) and Frost/Nixon, which generated just over $16,000 per screen in week #2 (39 playdates). With Golden Globe and SAG Awards nominations for Meryl Streep, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams and Viola Davis, Doubt should continue to play well through the awards season.
Weinstein has elected to hold expansion for The Reader until Christmas Day, so the picture remains on 4 screens and appears headed for about $114,000 by Monday, down about 35% from its opening weekend at the same locations. That would give Stephen Daldry’s Oscar contender the fourth-best weekend PTA at a possible $14,240.
Ron Howard’s amazing Frost/Nixon picked up just 2 new locations this weekend as Universal prepares for a major Christmas Day expansion. Powered by SAG Awards nominations this week for Best Ensemble and Best Male Actor: Frank Langella, the film will add about $361,000 this weekend, down about 42%. That equates to an $8,805 PTA, #5 for the frame.
STEVE MASON’S EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – 4 locations – $53,438 PTA
2. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – 19 locations – $23,400 PTA
3. Doubt (Miramax) – 39 locations – $18,026 PTA
4. The Reader (Weinstein) – 8 locations – $14,240 PTA
5. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – 41 locations – $8,805 PTA
6. NEW – Seven Pounds – 2,785 locations – $5,806 PTA
7. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – 3,434 locations – $5,498 PTA
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – 589 locations – $4,999 PTA
9. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – 3,104 locations – $4,540 PTA
10. Milk (Focus) – 356 locations – $4,417 PTA
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EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES: ‘Yes Man’ with $6.7M Friday and a likely $18.76M; Carrey’s decent opening possibly enough to lift Warner Bros to all-time single year sales record!; Will Smith’s streak of consecutive $100M+ grossing pics likely over as ‘Seven Pounds’ seems headed for $15.63M!
by Steve MasonSteve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
Jim Carrey and his high-concept comedy Yes Man (Warner Bros) will win the pre-Christmas weekend out-performing Will Smith’s more challenging Seven Pounds (Sony), although both films seem to be under-performing industry expectations.. Audiences are saying “Yes” to a breezy, cheerful, undemanding movie experience, although it is not a particularly emphatic “Yes.” In my Final Weekend Tracking column, I predicted $26.35M for Yes Man, and industry tracking certainly supported an opening in the mid-$20M’s. Instead, moviegoers have agreed to the tune of only $6.7M on opening day, and that could translate to a less-than-expected $18.76 or so by Monday morning.
Meanwhile, Will Smith has landed in unfamiliar territory. This strange new land for the World’s Biggest Movie Star is called “Second Place.” Seven Pounds managed to churn up only $5.3M to start the 3-day, and I am projecting a $15.63M opening. This movie, a re-teaming of Smith with his Pursuit of Happyness director Gabriele Muccino, has endured scathing early reviews and some definite “Will Smith is a little full of himself” backlash. The movie has been described as pretentious and downright dumb by some critics, and heart wrenchingly-optimistic and emotionally cathartic by others. The end result is Smith’s weakest opening since 2000’s Ali ($14.7M).
Yes Man is the latest in a year-long winning streak for Warner Bros Not only have they locked up the studio market share race for 2008, this decent-not-great opening may lift Warner Bros to finish the year with more domestic ticket sales than any studio in history. If my opening weekend number for Yes Man holds, I am projecting that the film could bank a possible $48M (conservatively) before the end of the year. Add to that a projected cume of $120M for Four Christmases by the close of business on December 31, and an anticipated $5.4M or so from the limited engagements of Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (70 playdates starting Christmas Day), and Warner Bros would reach an annual domestic sales figure of $1.75 billion, surpassing Sony’s $1.71 billion take in 2006.
The Dark Knight ($530.7M domestic so far) is the lynchpin of Warner Bros’ soon-to-be record-breaking year, but there are 4 other $100M+ grossing films that have helped to push the studio over-the-top. Along with Four Christmases, which will blow by $100M on Sunday, WB has also scored with Sex and the City ($152.6M cume), Get Smart ($130.3M cume) and Journey to the Center of the Earth ($101.7M cume). Sony set the previous record with one $200M+ performer (Da Vinci Code), 3 $100M+ hits (Casino Royale, Talladega Nights and Click) and about $96M of the ultimate $163.5M gross for Pursuit of Happyness, which landed in December 2006.
As for Will Smith, Seven Pounds is likely to break his historic streak of consecutive $100M+ grossing movies, which stands at 8.
2002 – Men in Black II – $52.1M opening – $190.4M cume
2003 – Bad Boys II – $46.5M opening – $138.6M cume
2004 – I, Robot – $52.1M opening – $144.8M cume
2004 – Shark Tale – $47.6M opening – $160.8M cume
2005 – Hitch – $43.1M opening – $179.4M cume
2006 – The Pursuit of Happyness – $26.5M opening – $163.5M cume
2007 – I Am Legend – $77.2M opening – $256.4M cume
2008 – Hancock – $62.6M opening – $227.9M cume
Critical pans be damned, people love Will Smith, but I am betting that the word-of-mouth on Seven Pounds will not be enough to net the 6.4 multiple that would be required to push it past $100M.
Universal’s Tale of Despereaux coaxed an estimated $3.8M in ticket sales to start the weekend and, with huge matinee business on Saturday and Sunday, the all-time umpteenth animated mouse movie should reach an estimated $15.27M good for third place, setting up for some solid holiday week business.
As expected, The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) has fallen apart, down about 67% for the weekend. Keanu Reeves’ spin on Klaatu could only muster $3.1M on its second Friday, and it will finish the frame with about $10.07M for a 10-day cume of $48.55M.
Rounding out the Top 5 is the aforementioned and surprisingly durable Four Christmases. Vince Vaughn and Reese Witherspoon enjoyed another $3.06M in Friday sales, and it will deliver $9.49M or so more of “holiday cheer” for Warner Bros by Monday morning.
Details of the weekend’s specialty releases and lots of analysis is on tap for Saturday morning.
EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $6.7M, $1,951 PTA, $6.7M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $5.3M, $1,922 PTA, $5.3M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $3.8M, $1,224 PTA, $3.8M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $3.1M, $871 PTA, $41.57M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $3.06M, $871 PTA, $95.47M cume
6. Twilight (Summit) – $1.55M, $521 PTA, $154.79M cume
7. Bolt (Disney) – $1.31M, $443 PTA, $92.06M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $1.24M, $2,120 PTA, $10.23M cume
9. Milk (Focus) – $804,000, $2,257 PTA, $9.48M cume
10. Australia (Fox) – $763,000, $345 PTA, $40.38M cume
EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $18.76M, $5,463 PTA, $18.76M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $15.63M, $5,669 PTA, $15.63M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $15.27M, $4,921 PTA, $15.27M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $10.07M, $2,830 PTA, $48.55M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $9.49M, $2,701 PTA, $101.9M cume
6. Bolt (Disney) -$5.66M, $1,908 PTA, $96.41M cume
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $4.86M, $8,268 PTA, $13.85M cume
8. Twilight (Summit) – $4.83M, $1,616 PTA, $158.06M cume
9. Milk (Focus) – $2.93M, $8,237 PTA, $11.61M cume
10. Australia (Fox) – $2.59M, $1,172 PTA, $42.21M cume
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FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: Jim Carrey with a slight edge over Will Smith as YES MAN could continue Warner Bros’ hot streak; SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE may top $4M, while GRAN TORINO and DOUBT expand strongly; THE WRESTER could open to a $50,000+ 3-Day PTA!
by Steve MasonSteve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
The weekend box office battle boils down to Jim Carrey vs. Will Smith. This is a match-up between the former “World’s Biggest Box Office Star” and the reigning champ, and I am giving a slight advantage to the challenger. Either Yes Man (Warner Bros) or Seven Pounds (Sony) could score the weekend-before-Christmas win, but I am predicting a victory for Carrey.
These are two of the most successful movie stars in history. Only Tom Hanks, Tom Cruise and Eddie Murphy have more $100M hits on their resume than Will Smith with 12, and Carrey is only one behind at 11 blockbusters to clear the magical threshold.
MOST $100M+ HITS IN A CAREER
-including animated films & excluding cameos -
1. Tom Hanks – 15
2. Tom Cruise – 14
3. Eddie Murphy – 13
4. Will Smith – 12
4. Harrison Ford – 12
6. Jim Carrey – 11
6. Robin Williams – 11
8. Mel Gibson – 10
9. Matt Damon – 9
10. Bruce Willis – 8
10. Jack Nicholson – 8
Will Smith, however, has done something unprecedented – a feat never done by the Toms – Hanks and Cruise. Hancock was his 8th consecutive $100M+ grossing blockbuster. Hanks and Cruise both had career-best streaks of 7 films topping $100M.
2002 – Men in Black II – $52.1M opening – $190.4M cume
2003 – Bad Boys II – $46.5M opening – $138.6M cume
2004 – I, Robot – $52.1M opening – $144.8M cume
2004 – Shark Tale – $47.6M opening – $160.8M cume
2005 – Hitch – $43.1M opening – $179.4M cume
2006 – The Pursuit of Happyness – $26.5M opening – $163.5M cume
2007 – I Am Legend – $77.2M opening – $256.4M cume
2008 – Hancock – $62.6M opening – $227.9M cume
For comparison, 5 of Carrey’s past 8 films have scored at least $100M domestic, including this year’s animated Dr. Suess’ Horton Hears a Who! ($154.5M cume), but he has veered away from the purely commercial with 2001’s poorly-reviewed drama The Majestic ($27.8M cume), the Academy Award winning Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind ($24.4M cume) in 2004 and 2007’s misguided horror release The Number 23 ($35.1M cume).
Neither picture is getting help from critics with Yes Man at 35% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and Seven Pounds registering a meager 30% Fresh as of Thursday night. Given the generally poor notices, I say Yes Man wins for 3 reasons:
1. More playdates 3,434 to 2,758
2. Tone – People are more interested in a couple of laughs than they are in a “heavy” spiritual message, even if it is generally optimistic
3. Warner Bros can do no wrong in 2008
4. Will Smith backlash
Lou Lumenick from the New York Post points out on his blog that on November 4, Will was informed by his 16-year old son that the Presidential race was over. The first-ever election of an African American to be the Leader of the Free World hadn’t reached the rarified air of the World’s Biggest Movie Star. Lumenick says he can’t imagine Paul Newman, a great movie star and philanthropist, ever being that out-of-touch with what’s important in the life of everyday people.
And there’s the brutally scathing Todd McCarthy review in Variety who rips Seven Pounds for its pretentiousness and self-importance. He reports that Smith doesn’t shy away from, “the saintlike status conferred upon his character. Indeed, he embraces it in a way so convincing that it proves disturbing as an indication of how highly this or any momentarily anointed superstar may regard himself.”
Just because media types think Will is a little “full of himself,” does not mean that the rank-and-file moviegoer will agree. In Australia, there is something called “Tall Poppy Syndrome.” As my always-credible friends at Wikipedia say, “Someone is said to be a target of ‘Tall Poppy Syndrome’ when his or her assumption of a higher economic, social or political position is criticized as being presumptuous, attention seeking, or without merit.”
Then again, it may all be a case of sour grapes. When a star of Smith’s caliber takes a risk – and make no mistake, this is a risky, challenging film – he should be accorded some respect for his effort. Let’s face it. If Will Smith wanted to crank out generic action movies for the rest of his life, Hollywood would give him big bags of money.
I believe that, even though Seven Pounds may not win its opening weekend, its heart wrenching-yet-hopeful story will connect with enough moviegoers to make it Will’s 9th consecutive $100M-grossing movie, which would be the 13th of his career. My final prediction is for a $24.78M opening. Meanwhile, the cheerful, if-not-hilarious high-concept comedy of Yes Man could win the weekend with a possible $26.35M.
Meanwhile, the other new wide release is Universal’s animated Tale of Despereaux, receiving fair-to-middling reviews as of Thursday night (43% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). With Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa nearing the end of its run and Bolt tailing off, industry tracking points to an opening in the mid-teens for Despereaux. My final call is for about $15.19M, which could set it up for a decent little Christmas week run.
Fox’s holdover The Day the Earth Stood Still will crash-and-burn this weekend, possibly dropping by as much as 67% for a disastrous $10.11M and a 10-day cume of only $48.6M. Close-behind at #5 will be Four Christmases (Warner Bros), which may drop as little as 25% to a possible $9.75M. By Monday morning, the Vince Vaughn-Reese Witherspoon holiday comedy will pass the $100M mark.
Among the specialty releases, Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) adds 420 locations and may deliver as much as $4.64M. Danny Boyle’s modern masterpiece is riding a huge wave of acclaim including Golden Globe nominations for Best Picture – Drama and Best Director and SAG Awards nominations for Best Ensemble and Best Supporting Actor: Dev Patel. No company is better at the “science” of a platform release than Searchlight, and I am forecasting a PTA of $7,891 for this gutty little Best Picture contender.
Other award favorites expand to varying degrees. Milk (Focus) adds 28 locations and could reach $2.8M for a $7,876 PTA. Miramax’s excellent Doubt, with Golden Globe and SAG Award nominations for Meryl Streep, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams and Viola Davis, expands to 39 playdates, and I am anticipating just over $1M for a Per Theatre Average of $27,341. Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (Warner Bros), which won him the National Board of Review’s Best Actor notice, but has been completely shut out of major categories at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards, adds 13 carefully chosen screens. I am calling for about $687,000 by Monday with a PTA of just over $36,000.
Oscar contenders Frost/Nixon (Universal) and The Reader (Weinstein) are holding off on expansion until Christmas Day. Powered by Frank Langella’s remarkable performance, Frost/Nixon seems headed for a $14,600 or so weekend PTA while Stephen Daldry’s meditation on Germany’s sense of guilt over the Holocaust should deliver just over $16,000 per location.
The new limited release this week is the critically-hailed Darren Aronofsky-directed Mickey Rourke vehicle The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight). The movie opened on 4 screens Wednesday churning up an $11,732 PTA on opening day alone. There is clearly more-than-a-little anticipation for this unexpected awards contender, and it may achieve just over $310,000 in just 5 days. That would mean a 3-day Per Theatre Average of almost $58,000, just shy of the year’s best weekend PTA mark set by Frost/Nixon 2 weeks ago.
FINAL WEEKEND PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF 12/19
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $26.35M
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) – $24.78M
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $15.19M
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $10.11M
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $9.75M
6. Bolt (Disney) – $5.49M
7. Twilight (Summit) – $4.78M
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $4.64M
9. Milk (Focus) – $2.8M
10. Australia (Fox) – $2.57M
11. Quantum of Solace (Sony) – $2.24M
12. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.84M
13. Nothing Like the Holidays (Overture) – $1.69M
*Doubt (Miramax) – $1.06M
*Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $687,000
*Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $602,000
*NEW – The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $232,000
*The Reader (Weinstein) – $131,000
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Summit’s TWILIGHT sequel set for November 20, but is the franchise in trouble? Director Weitz sank New Line with $180M disaster GOLDEN COMPASS and fans are fighting the ouster of Lautner!
by Steve MasonSteve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
The teen vampire blockbuster Twilight added another $7.95M this weekend, breaking through the $150M barrier in domestic box office. This performance exceeds even the rosiest box office expectations for the movie, so it is hard to understand why Summit seems to be making huge changes for the sequel New Moon, based on the second book in Stephenie Meyer’s mega-selling series.
I have seen Twilight, and, given the budget constraints that director Catherine Hardwicke was under, it was a very solid piece of popular entertainment. Before it finishes its domestic run, it could hit $175M-$180M, which is almost 5 times its budget. Twilight is already the most successful movie ever directed by a woman, but as we know, Hollywood is an “old boy’s club,” and she is not “one of the boys.”
Over the weekend, Summit announced that Hardwicke is out and that a guy named Chris Weitz is in. 1999’s American Pie was his career breakthough as he teamed with his brother to produce and direct the $11M movie, which went on to a $102M domestic gross. Working with brother Paul, he followed with Chris Rock in 2001’s Down to Earth ($64.1M cume) and 2002’s About a Boy starring Hugh Grant, which managed only $41M in US ticket sales, but did earn the Weitz brothers an Oscar nomination for adapting Nick Hornby’s novel of the same name.
Then came The Golden Compass released last December. Weitz adapted the screenplay and was given $180M to shoot a great big fantasy film for New Line. The result was only $25.7M on opening weekend and a total domestic cume of $70.1M. The disastrous box office performance was earned according to critics as the would-be blockbuster managed only a 42% Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes.
So let me get this straight. Summit fires the woman who guided Twilight to a monstrous box office performance on a shoestring budget and replaces her with a guy who is best known for sinking New Line, which Bob Shaye and Michael Lynne were forced to fold in the wake of his $180M fantasy film flop? Bad move.
Hardwicke should continue as director, but if the personalities didn’t work, then Summitt should have chosen another woman to direct. Perhaps Katherine Bigelow, who has proved that she can do big action with Point Break, sci-fi with Strange Days and vampires with 1987’s excellent Near Dark. Despite the soft opening for Punisher: War Zone (Lionsgate) in theatres now, I think that former World Karate and Kickboxing Champion-turned-director Lexi Alexander would be another qualified woman director for the job.
The internet is now rife with reports that actor Taylor Lautner, who played the small but pivotal role of Jacob Black in Twilight, will not return for New Moon. Lautner plays the native American kid who befriends Bella Swan (Kristin Stewart) in the first film and becomes the werewolf rival of Edward Cullen (Robert Pattinson) in the sequel. In what strikes me as “bad form,” Michael Copon, best known for his work on TV’s One Tree Hill, is openly campaigning for the role including “Status Updates” on his Facebook page like “Michael Copon is the older Jacob Black.” There is no formal announcement from Summit or Copon’s representatives, but there is already some real “push-back” from Twilight fans as evidenced by a new Facebook group that is gaining steam - I REJECT Michael Copon as Jacob Black: SAVE TAYLOR NOW!
In addition to what could be the ouster of Lautner, Ben Barnes of from the Narnia franchise (Prince Caspian) is angling for a role in the Twilight sequel. He has his sights set on the part of Aro, a vampire who plays a pivotal role in the Bella/Edward romance in New Moon.
Summit has dramatically accelerated the production schedule for New Moon with a November 20, 2009 release date now set. Another werewolf movie, Wolfman, from Universal starring Oscar winners Benicio Del Toro and Anthony Hopkins, is set to debut 2 weeks earlier on November 6. Then on that same November 20 date is the sci-fi animated film Planet 51 (Sony), powered by the voices of Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, Jessica Biel and Seann William Scott along with Guy Ritchie’s re-imagining of Sherlock Holmes (Warner Bros), featuring Robert Downey, Jr. as the lead sleuth and Oscar nominee Jude Law as Watson. The Farrelly Bros’ new, yet-to-be-cast version of The Three Stooges (MGM) is also tentatively slotted on this date.
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Sluggish DAY THE EARTH STOOD STILL stalls at $31M, and now unlikely to reach $80M domestic!
by Steve MasonSteve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
The Day the Earth Stood Still has failed to stop Fox’s 2008 losing streak managing just $31M in its opening 3 days according to studio estimates. As I wrote Friday night, this has been a disastrous year for Fox, and now, it will be virtually impossible for the studio to reach $1 billion in domestic sales for 2008, and they will be last among the “Big 6” studios for a second consecutive year.
The horrible reviews (22% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and very weak Cinema Score exit surveys will add up to awful word-of-mouth, and Earth Stood Still will not have legs. Next weekend’s trio of wide releases, Seven Pounds (Sony), Yes Man (Warner Bros) and The Tale of Despereaux (Universal) will swamp Keanu’s Klaatu and his attacking alien race, and Fox’s would-be blockbuster could drop as 62%+ next weekend for something in the $11M range. With a possible 10-day cume just under $50M, it’s hard to imagine The Day The Earth Stood Still reaching $80M domestic.
Fox has one more chance for redemption this year – Marley & Me starring Owen Wilson and Jennifer Anniston due Christmas Day. In the meantime, penciling in a generous $80M for Earth Stood Still and $50M for Australia, now playing in theatres, Fox’s 19 releases in 2008 have an average domestic box office of an embarrassing $45.75M. Remove Fox’s one big hit, Horton Hears a Who which grossed $154.5M, and the studios average US gross per release is only $39.9M.
For details on the weekend’s 3 major specialty releases including Gran Torino (Warner Bros), check out my Saturday night story on the weekend Per Theatre Average race.
STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $31M, $8,708 PTA, $31M cume
2. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $13.27M, $3,749 PTA, $87.97M cume
3. Twilight (Summit) – $8M, $2,196 PTA, $150.1M cume
4. Bolt (Disney) – $7.5M, $2,396 PTA, $88.89M cume
5. Australia (Fox) – $4.28M, $1,585 PTA, $37.88M cume
6. Quantum of Solace (Sony) – $3.8M, $1,442 PTA, $157.66M cume
7. NEW – Nothing Like the Holidays (Overture) – $3.5M, $2,095 PTA, $3.5M cume
8. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.25M, $1,174 PTA, $170M cume
9. Milk (Focus) – $2.63M, $8,037 PTA, $7.63M cume
10. Transporter 3 (Lionsgate) – $2.25M, $885 PTA, $29.27M cume
11. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.2M, $13.018 PTA, $8.07M cume
12. Cadillac Records (Sony) – $1.6M, $2,326 PTA, $5.92M cume
*NEW – Delgo (Freestyle) – $916,000, $424 PTA, $916,000 cume
*Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $630,000, $16,154 PTA, $878,000 cume
*NEW – Doubt (Miramax) – $525,000, $35,000 PTA, $525,000 cume
*NEW – Gran Torino – $284,000, $47,333 PTA, $284,000 cume
*NEW – The Reader (Weinstein) – $170,000, $21,250 PTA, $170,000 cume
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Despite Golden Globes snub, GRAN TORINO headed for a $46,250 PTA. DOUBT opens strong & HFPA “saves” THE READER!
by Steve MasonSteve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
Despite being shut out in all of major categories in this week’s Golden Globe Awards nominations, Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (Warner Bros) has opened with very strong numbers at 6 locations this weekend. The HFPA snubbed Clint for his performance as Walt Kowalski, the gruff, bigoted Korean War veteran, and they ignored him in the Best Director category for both Gran Torino (and his other film Changeling from Universal). Still, the movie should generate an estimated $277,500 in its opening 3 days for a $46,250 PTA.
Gran Torino is turning out to be a bit of a Rorschach test for critics and awards voters. The National Board of Review gave Eastwood its Best Actor award while the Golden Globes passed him over. People seem to love the movie or loathe it. I am a huge Clint fan, but this doesn’t strike me as his best work. Nick Schenk’s original screenplay is unpolished and on-the-nose, and Eastwood’s growling and epithet-spewing go a bit too far.
I do not believe that Gran Torino is a Best Picture threat, but Clint could sneak into the Best Actor category. With Sean Penn (Milk), Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon) and Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) as locks, Eastwood, Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Bejamin Button), Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road) and Richard Jenkins (The Visitor) will battle for the final 2 noms.
In terms of commercial success, the $46,250 PTA is on par with New Line’s 2002 release of About Schmidt, starring Jack Nicholson. That film went on to a domestic gross of $65M, but Gran Torino’s darker tone and more challenging theme will dramatically limit its commercial upside.
Miramax’s Doubt from playwright-turned-director John Patrick Shanley, scored big with Globes voters earning 5 nominations this week, including Best Actress for Meryl Streep and supporting nods for Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams and Viola Davis. The film has debuted at 15 locations this weekend with a projected $518,000 in ticket sales for a Per Theatre Average of $34,533.
The biggest surprise in the Golden Globe nominations was the success of The Reader (Weinstein). Reviews have been all over the board (59% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but Bob and Harvey worked their magic on the HFPA churning out 4 nominations including Best Picture, Best Director: Stephen Daldry and Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet. Without that Globe glow, this movie would have been DOA, but now it is showing signs of life. The Reader may reach $169,200 at 8 locations this weekend for a respectable $21,150 PTA.
STEVE MASON’S EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $277,500 – 6 locations – $46,250 PTA
2. NEW – Doubt (Miramax) – $518,000 – 15 locations – $34,533 PTA
3. NEW – The Reader (Weinstein) – 8 locations – $21,150 PTA
4. Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $605,900 – 39 locations – $15,536 PTA
5. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.04M – 169 locations – $12,095 PTA
6. NEW – The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $31.32M – 3,560 locations – $8,798 PTA
7. Milk (Focus) – 328 locations – $2.55M – $7,793
8. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $12.39M – 3,540 locations – $3,500 PTA
9. Cadillac Records (Sony) – $1.55M – 688 locations – $2,258 PTA
10. Bolt (Disney) – $7.07M – 3,133 locations – $2,257 PTA\
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EXCLUSIVE EARLY ESTIMATES: Fox’s tough year continues as DAY THE EARTH STOOD STILL manages only $12.5M Friday for a possible $33.75M opening!
by Steve MasonSteve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
The world is not “standing still” for Fox’s remake of the 1951 Robert Wise-directed sci-fi classic opening in theatres this weekend. The Day the Earth Stood Still, starring Keanu Reeves, Oscar winner Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind) and Jon Hamm (Mad Men), has gotten off to a decent start, but it is hardly the blockbuster that the studio was hoping for and needs. My Exclusive Early Friday Estimate is $12.5M with a Per Theatre Average of $3,511. That will likely equate to a decent-not-great $33.75M for opening weekend.
On this same calendar weekend last year, Warner Bros scored big with the end-of-the-world action flick I Am Legend, which grabbed a spectacular $77.2M 3-day. With Will Smith as the lead, the generally well-reviewed film finished with $256.4M domestic and $584M worldwide. It is very safe to say that Keanu Reeves is no Will Smith and Earth Stood Still is no I Am Legend. This movie was barely-screened for critics (24% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and word-of-mouth is not likely to help its “playability.” My hunch is that Fox’s new sci-fi spectacular is headed for a total domestic gross in the $75M – $85M range.
It has been a very challenging year for Fox. The studio’s year started out on a high with the Katherine Heigl vehicle 27 Dresses, the respectably-performing Jumper ($80.1M) and mega-hit Horton Hears a Who released back in March. Powered by the voices of Jim Carrey, Steve Carell and Seth Rogen among others, Horton reached $154.5M in domestic box office. It has been all downhill from there.
Fox’s next 13 films released in 2008 have each failed to reach $100M. In fact only one title, What Happens in Vegas, has topped $80M. The studio’s expensive, quixotic Baz Luhrmann epic Australia is struggling in theatres right now (I am estimating $4.22M this weekend for a new cume of $37.82M), and it seems destined for a disappointing sub-$50M domestic performance.
Even with Marley & Me, based on the popular novel and set for a Christmas release, Fox is unlikely to reach $1 billion in domestic box office for 2008 (with a week of business of their holiday dog yarn, they will likely wrap the year with about $980M). After finishing #2 in market share in 2005 with $1.35 billion and #3 in 2006 with $1.39 billion, they may finish 6th among the “Big 6” studios for a second consecutive year, down about 3% year-over-year from 2007’s $1.01 billion.
Despite the so-so opening, The Day the Earth Stood Still becomes the all-time best non-Matrix opening for Keanu Reeves.
ALL-TIME TOP 10 KEANU REEVES OPENINGS
1. The Matrix Reloaded – $91.7M opening ($281.5M cume)
2. The Matrix Revolutions – $48.4M opening ($139.3M cume)
3. The Day the Earth Stood Still – $33.75M (projected)
4. Bram Stoker’s Dracula – $30.5M opening ($82.5M cume)
5. Constantine – $29.7M opening ($75.9M cume)
6. The Matrix – $27.7M opening ($171.4M cume)
7. Something’s Gotta Give – $16M opening ($124.7M cume)
8. Speed – $14.4M opening ($121.2M cume)
9. The Lake House – $13.6M opening ($52.3M cume)
10. Street Kings – $12.4M opening ($26.4M cume)
2008 market share champion Warner Bros continues riding high with Four Christmases adding an estimated $4M on Friday, good for second place. The Vince Vaughn/Reese Witherspoon comedy should wrap the weekend with about $12.5M, only a 25% drop from last weekend, for a new cume of $87.2M. Despite bad-to-middling reviews, this one will top $100M domestic well-before Christmas Day.
Twilight (Summit) continues to out-perform even the rosiest of industry expectations. The film adaptation of Stephenie Meyer’s vampire novel has held much better than anyone could have expected, and it seized another $2.75M to start the weekend. By Monday, it will have banked another $7.95M, dipping 39% from last weekend, good for third place. With a remarkable total domestic gross of $150M, it still remains a mystery to me why Summit gave director Catherine Hardwicke her “walking papers” from the franchise this week.
At #4 for the weekend is Disney’s Bolt. The Walt Disney Animation Studios production coaxed another $1.7M or so in sales on Friday, and huge Saturday and Sunday matinee surges should lead to a $7.1M frame for a new cume of $88.48M. After dropping just 28% this weekend, the John Travolta/Miley Cyrus voiced Bolt will be challenged by Universal’s animated The Tale of Despereaux for the family audience starting next Friday.
Australia and Quantum of Solace (Sony) are battling for fifth place, but I am giving the edge to Baz’s Nicole Kidman/Hugh Jackman teaming. Solace may have won Friday with about $1.35M or so, but Australia should edge the new Bond with a possible $4.22M for the 3-day.
The new, wide release Nothing But the Holidays (Overture) appears to have managed only a seventh place finish with an estimated $1.25M opening day, which should translate to a very soft $3.5M 3-day start. Holidays, a Latino-flavored Christmas movie featuring Debra Messing from Will & Grace along with John Leguizamo, Freddy Rodriguez, Alfred Molina, Luis Guzman and Elizabeth Pena, debuted with mixed reviews (49% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), and it has never quite gained enough marketing traction with moviegoers.
The other wide release is the animated Delgo, distributed by Freestyle Releasing. This one has been savaged by critics (13% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), and it probably should have gone straight-to-video. Delgo managed an unimaginably bad $130,000 on opening day and will finish the weekend with as little as $400,000. If that number holds, the Per Theatre Average will be a miniscule $185.
STEVE MASON’S EXCLUSIVE EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $12.5M, $3,511 PTA, $12.5M cume
2. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $4M, $1,130 PTA, $78.7M cume
3. Twilight (Summit) – $2.75M, $754 PTA, $144.84M cume
4. Bolt (Disney) – $1.7M, $543 PTA, $83M cume
5. Quantum of Solace (Sony) – $1.35M, $512 PTA, $154.73M cume
6. Australia (Fox) – $1.3M, $481PTA, $34.89M cume
7. NEW – Nothing Like the Holidays (Overture) – $1.25M, $748 PTA, $1.25M cume
8. Milk (Focus) – $925,000, $2,820 PTA, $5.91M cume
9. Transporter 3 (Lionsgate) – $850,000, $335 PTA, $27.87M cume
10. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $800,000, $289 PTA, $167.55M cume
11. Role Models (Universal) – $670,000, $506 PTA, $63.25M
12. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $650,000, $3,846 PTA, $6.52M cume
*NEW – Delgo (Freestyle) – $130,000, $60 PTA, $130,000 cume
STEVE MASON’S EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $33.75M, $9,480 PTA, $33.75M cume
2. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $12.5M, $3,531 PTA, $87.2M cume
3. Twilight (Summit) – $7.95M, $2,179 PTA, $150M cume
4. Bolt (Disney) – $7.1M, $2,266 PTA, $88.48M cume
5. Australia (Fox) – $4.22M, $1,563 PTA, $37.82M cume
6. Quantum of Solace (Sony) – $4.18M, $1,588 PTA, $157.56M cume
7. NEW – Nothing Like the Holidays (Overture) – $3.5M, $2,095 PTA, $3.5M cume
8. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.4M, $1,228 PTA, $170.15M cume
9. Transporter 3 (Lionsgate) – $2.65M, $1,044 PTA, $29.67M cume
10. Milk (Focus) – $2.6M, $7,927 PTA, $7.59M cume
11. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.1M, $12,426 PTA, $7.97M cume
12. Role Models (Universal) – $1.97M, $1,492 PTA, $64.56M cume
*NEW – Delgo (Freestyle) – $400,000, $185 PTA, $400,000 cume
ALSO SEE:
Steve Mason’s Final Weekend Tracking
Steve Mason’s Golden Globes Forecast
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FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: ‘The Day the Earth Stood Still’ could reach $36M, but Keanu’s Klaatu unlikely to achieve world domination!
by Steve MasonWith Fox still smarting from the underwhelming start for Baz Luhrmann’s Australia (just over $32M so far), they unleash The Day the Earth Stood Still on Friday. This is a big budget remake of the 1951 classic from 4-time Oscar winner Robert Wise (The Sound of Music, West Side Story). Michael Rennie played the virtually emotionless Klaatu, the extraterrestrial sentinel from an invading race in the original film, so the wooden Keanu Reeves seems to be the perfect choice for the new version, but industry tracking is suggesting that this would-be-blockbuster may not achieve anything close to world domination.
Generally, the trailer has been playing very well for months. It has the look of 1996’s Independence Day ($306M domestic), but Reeves is not the engaging superstar that Will Smith is. In fact aside from The Matrix Trilogy, Keanu’s box office resume is a bit thin.
ALL-TIME TOP 10 KEANU REEVES OPENINGS
1. The Matrix Reloaded – $91.7M opening ($281.5M cume)
2. The Matrix Revolutions – $48.4M opening ($139.3M cume)
3. Bram Stoker’s Dracula – $30.5M opening ($82.5M cume)
4. Constantine – $29.7M opening ($75.9M cume)
5. The Matrix – $27.7M opening ($171.4M cume)
6. Something’s Gotta Give – $16M opening ($124.7M cume)
7. Speed – $14.4M opening ($121.2M cume)
8. The Lake House – $13.6M opening ($52.3M cume)
9. Street Kings – $12.4M opening ($26.4M cume)
10. The Devil’s Advocate – $12.1M opening ($60.9M cume)
It’s easy to pile on Reeves for his consistently monotone performances, but he has always chosen interesting projects. Today, committing to the role of Neo in The Matrix seems like a no-brainer, but at the time, a movie that combines sci-fi, new age spirituality, martial arts and techie language must have seemed pretty “out there.” Still, the actor went “all-in.” His interest in metaphysics, the supernatural and futuristic technology can be seen in projects like Little Buddha ($4.8M domestic), Johnny Mnemonic ($19M domestic), The Devil’s Advocate, Constantine and even 2006’s The Lake House with Sandra Bullock.
The Day the Earth Stood Still definitely feels like the kind of movie Reeves has been drawn to in the past, and he has a very good supporting cast in this picture with Oscar winners Jennifer Connelly and Kathy Bates, Golden Gobe winner Jon Hamm (Mad Men) and Will Smith’s real-life son Jaden from The Pursuit of Happyness.
My sources at competing studios tell me that pre-opening tracking is much softer-than-expected. Despite being the only major wide release this weekend, The Day the Earth Stood Still is a longshot to reach $40M in its opening 3 days. I still like it to break $30M, and I think that the general lack of competition will help this sci-fi, end-of-the-world spectacular to reach a possible $36M. Even if the film performs well enough to hit my number, word-of-mouth may prevent it from getting to $100M in the US. Right now, I am setting a target of $80M domestic.
Holdovers will dominate the top 5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) will be #2 with a possible $9.63M, down about 42% from its second weekend. That would push the Vince Vaughn/Reese Witherspoon comedy to an impressive $84.24M domestic. Summit’s teen vampire blockbuster Twilight (Summit) should continue to play strongly adding a potential $7.36M over the weekend. Despite what could be $149.32M in the bank by Monday morning, director Catherine Hardwicke’s “thank you” is a pink slip from the Stephenie Meyer franchise. And, Disney’s Bolt will get very little challenge from Freestyle’s release of the animated Delgo (I am predicting a mere $3.5M for opening weekend), which should spell a fourth place finish. With John Travolta and Miley Cyrus providing voices, Bolt may grab another $6.5M this frame for a new cume of $87.8M.
The other new wide release is the Latino-flavored holiday yarn Nothing Like the Holidays from Overture. Debra Messing from Will & Grace is joined by John Leguizamo, Freddy Rodriguez, Alfred Molina, Luis Guzman and Elizabeth Pena in a family-friendly comedy with mixed reviews as of Wednesday night (50% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). There is generally always room for a movie like this in December, but industry tracking shows no real traction with moviegoers. It will likely crack the top 5 with a possible $4.15M, just ahead of Australia.
WEEKEND PREDICTIONS FOR DECEMBER 12-14
1. NEW – The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) – $36.2M
2. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $9.83M
3. Twilight (Summit) – $7.36M
4. Bolt (Disney) – $6.5M
5. NEW – Nothing Like the Holidays (Overture) – $4.15M
6. Australia (Fox) – $4.1M
7. Quantum of Solace (Sony) – $4M
8. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.43M
9. NEW – Delgo (Freestyle) – $3.51M
10. Transporter 3 (Lionsgate) – $2.24M
11. Milk (Focus) – $2.2M
12. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2M
Also see:
Steve Mason’s Golden Globe forecast.
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GOLDEN GLOBE FORECAST: ‘Benjamin Button’ and ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ should be lead Best Picture – Drama field; Streep and Seymour Hoffman are possible double-nominees; ‘Milk’ and ‘Gran Torino’ surging with voters!
by Steve MasonThe Golden Globe nominees will be announced this Thursday, December 11 at 5am Pacific. Announcement day for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is always the official start of the Academy Award season, and the stakes are very high for pictures and performances that need that Golden Globe shine to stay alive in the race for an Oscar.
I reserve the right to update these predictions in advance of nomination morning, but as of today (December 8), here’s my shot at picking the nominees along with some analysis.
BEST PICTURE – DRAMA
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount)
Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight)
Gran Torino (Warner Bros)
Milk (Focus)
The Dark Knight (Warner Bros)
ANALYSIS: Benjamin Button is the only true lock here, and Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire, especially with its international flavor, is a near lock. My sense is that both Gran Torino and Milk are surging. Warner Bros has just moved up the release date for what may be Clint Eastwood’s final star vehicle and Gus Van Sant’s biopic documenting the life of gay rights advocate Harvey Milk seems even more timely in the shadow of the passage of Prop 8 in California. I am a strong supporter of The Dark Knight, which has been an international box office sensation and, in my mind, is for Christopher Nolan what The Departed was for Martin Scorsese. Sam Mendes’ Revolutionary Road (Paramount), Frost/Nixon (Universal) and Doubt (Miramax) are also possibles (although they feel more like great acting pieces). If the nominations go this way, it’ll be the end of the Best Picture road for films like The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight), Eastwood’s other film Changeling (Universal) and the quixotic Baz Luhrmann epic Australia (Fox). The fact that both W. (Lionsgate) and Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics) have been categorized as dramas by the HFPA virtually eliminates them from Best Picture contention. If you’re looking for a sleeper here, it may be The Reader (Weinstein). Bob and Harvey managed a Best Picture nomination for The Great Debaters last year, so they have worked their magic on the foreign press before.
BEST PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Mamma Mia (Universal)
Sex and the City (Warner Bros)
Burn After Reading (Focus)
Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount)
Synecdoche, New York (Sony Classics)
ANALYSIS: HFPA voters will find it impossible to ignore the Broadway-to-big screen adaptation of Mamma Mia and the HBO-to-big screen adaptation of Sex and the City – especially in a year with a weak crop of comedy and musical contenders. The Coen Brothers black comedy Burn After Reading may be the picture to beat in this category, and the over-the-top big budget movie-within-a-movie satire Tropic Thunder seems like a good bet for a nomination. The last nomination will likely go to a smaller film. My guess is Charlie Kaufman’s directorial debut Synecdoche, New York will round out the category over Last Chance Harvey (Overture) and Happy-Go-Lucky (Miramax) from legendary British director Mike Leigh.
BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon (Universal)
Sean Penn, Milk (Focus)
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount)
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight)
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino (Warner Bros)
ANALYSIS: This is the most crowded and difficult-to-judge category of the year. The sure things seem like Langella, Penn, Pitt and Rourke. I say Eastwood squeezes out longtime character actor Richard Jenkins for The Visitor (Overture) and Rev Road’s Leonardo DiCaprio. My hunch is that both Hugh Jackman for Australia and Benicio Del Toro for Che (IFC Films) will be left out in the cold. Josh Brolin’s representation attempted to position him in the Best Actor – Comedy or Musical category for his turn as W. (Lionsgate), but the HFPA determined that it would compete as a drama. Bad news for Brolin because I don’t forsee him making the cut in this field. It’s also hard to see Will Smith’s turn in Seven Pounds (Sony) cracking the top 5.
BEST ACTOR – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey (Overture)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Synecdoche, New York (Sony Classics)
Ben Stiller, Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount)
Rickey Gervais, Ghost Town (Dreamworks/Paramount)
George Clooney, Leatherheads (Universal)
ANALYSIS: This is the weakest category on the board. The two Hoffmans – Dustin and Phillip Seymour – seem very safe picks. Ben Stiller is a big star in a well-reviewed and commercially successful film. The last two are very tough calls. Gervais is a wildly entertaining guy (he saved the Emmy Awards show), and Ghost Town was an artistic success (despite dive-bombing at the box office). I’m putting Clooney in the mix only because he’s Clooney – the kind of guy the HFPA likes having at its party. Will Smith in Hancock (Sony) and Seth Rogen in Pineapple Express (Sony) are both dark horses. I would love to see Jason Segal, who wrote and starred in Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal), or Paul Rudd from the hilarious Role Models (Universal) sneak in, but they may not have Golden Globe caliber public profiles.
BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
Meryl Streep, Doubt (Miramax)
Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long (Sony Classics)
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics)
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount)
Angelina Jolie, Changeling (Universal)
ANALYSIS: There will be no denying Streep this nomination for Doubt (Miramax), and Thomas, Hathaway and Blanchett seem very locked in as well. The final slot is a bit of a toss-up, but, again, the HFPA loves stars, which probably eliminates Melissa Leo from Frozen River (Sony Classics). I say that the relatively chilly reception for Australia hurts Nicole Kidman and despite Angelina Jolie’s over-the-top one-note performance in Changeling, the idea of having Pitt and Jolie on the red carpet together will be hard for the HFPA to resist. Kate Winslet will likely be squeezed out, so she’ll be forced to settle for a Supporting Actress nod for The Reader.
BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Tina Fey, Baby Mama (Universal)
Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey (Overture)
Sarah Jessica Parker, Sex and the City: The Movie (Warner Bros)
Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia (Universal)
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky (Sony Classics)
ANALYSIS: Streep is a certain double-nominee for her musical turn in Mamma Mia, and there’s no way that Golden Globe voters can resist including Sarah Jessica Parker for SATC and Tina Fey for Baby Mama. The likely winner in this category would have been Anne Hathaway for her brilliant, career-changing performance in Rachel Getting Married, but the HFPA decided that the movie would compete as a drama. That opens the door for Sally Hawkins for her memorable work in Happy-Go-Lucky and probably Emma Thompson for Last Chance Harvey. On the outside looking in are Samantha Morton for Synecdoche, New York and Frances McDormand for Burn After Reading.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk (Focus)
James Franco, Milk (Focus)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt (Miramax)
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (Warner Bros)
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount)
ANALYSIS: The race is for second with Heath Ledger’s performance in The Dark Knight a sure winner. Seymour Hoffman is potentially a double nominee with a second nod for Doubt. Franco is excellent in Milk along with Brolin’s interesting performance as Dan White in that same film. In any other year, Downey Jr. would be a slam dunk winner, but he will still be a nominee. Other possibles include Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road, Ralph Fiennes in The Reader and John Malkovich in Burn After Reading or Changeling. Aside from Ledger, my favorite supporting male performance of 2008 was Eddie Marsan as the comically psychotic driving instructor in Happy-Go-Lucky, but he’s almost certain to be overlooked.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt (Miramax)
Kathy Bates, Revolutionary Road (Paramount)
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona (Weinstein/MGM)
Rosemary DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics)
Kate Winslet, The Reader (Weinstein)
ANALYSIS: This may be Winslet’s consolation prize after missing a lead actress nom for Revolutionary Road. Adams, Bates and Cruz seem solid, but I wrestled with the last slot. It could be either DeWitt or co-star Debra Winger from Rachel Getting Married, but I think the former’s role on Mad Men will give her the boost she needs. There may be no room here for Benjamin Button’s Taraji P. Henson or Marisa Tomei from The Wrestler.
BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount)
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight)
Gus Van Sant, Milk (Focus)
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight (Warner Bros)
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon (Miramax)
ANALYSIS: Fincher is a heavy favorite along with Boyle. This is also a great spot for Van Sant and Nolan. The fifth nomination is a crapshoot. Eastwood is getting a push for Changeling, which is a mistake. He would have a puncher’s chance with Gran Torino. I am going with Ron Howard because of his pedigree, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see John Patrick Shanley for Doubt, Stephen Daldry for The Reader or Sam Mendes for Revolutionary Road.
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The Business Of Hollywood
by Steve Mason
I write about the business of Hollywood. Each week, I will be writing a box office preview with predictions for the coming weekend. My forecast is always based on conversations with studio executives and analysis of the latest industry tracking/audience surveys. Every Friday night, I will post my Exclusive Early Friday and 3-Day Estimates. In my time with FantasyMoguls.com, Hollywood.com and HollywoodWiretap.com, I have established myself as the source for the earliest and most accurate box office projections in the industry. I will also be following the awards season closely with a focus on how films may be resonating or failing to connect with both industry types and the public at large.
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FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: ‘Four Christmases’ possible winner with $38.5M for 5-day, followed by ‘Twilight’ at $30.7M; ‘Bolt’ a potential #3 followed by ‘Transporter 3′ at $26.8M & ‘Australia’ at $24M!
by Steve MasonTUESDAY 9:30 p.m. (Pacific): The general consensus is that, although Four Christmases (Warner Bros) is a flawed movie (I’m being kind), it is going to open. It is very well cast with Oscar winner Reese Witherspoon pulling Females Under 25, Vince Vaughn pumping up appeal with Males Under 25 and Oscar winners like Robert Duvall, Sissy Spacek and Mary Steenburgen luring in the 25 Plus crowd.
The truth is that there is always room for a Christmas comedy at Thanksgiving. The high water mark was 2000’s How the Grinch Stole Christmas, which opened with $55M on its way to $260M domestic, but there is a proven track record for Christmas-themed films opening for Thanksgiving or the few weeks before.
ALL-TIME Top 10 BEST OPENINGS FOR CHRISTMAS-THEMED FILMS RELEASED FOR THANKSGIVING
1. 2003 – Elf – $31.3M opening ($173.3M cume)
2. 2002 – Santa Clause 2 – $29M opening ($139.2M cume)
3. 2004 – The Polar Express – $23.2M opening ($179.1M cume)
4. 2004 – Christmas with the Kranks – $21.57M opening ($73.8M cume)
5. 2006 – Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause – $19.5M opening ($84.5M cume)
6. 1994 – The Santa Clause – $19.3M opening ($144.8M cume)
7. 2007 – Fred Claus – $18.5M opening ($72M cume)
8. 2007 – This Christmas – $17.9M opening ($49.1M cume)
9. 1988 – Scrooged – $13M opening ($60.3M cume)
10. 2003 – Bad Santa – $12.2M opening ($60M cume)
The quality of these films has never really been a factor, and that’s good for Four Christmases because as of Tuesday it is only receiving a 22% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. But, there is something else going on here. The idea of multiple Christmases because of divorces and remarriages is a reality for so many parents and kids that the plotline of this movie almost seems reassuring. We feel better about ourselves when we see a version of our lives onscreen, and this movie fits the bill for a huge chunk of the movie-going public.
Tracking for Four Christmases really surged over the weekend, and I’m told that the Monday numbers point to a possible weekend win. I am penciling in a potential $38.5M for this Seth Gordon-directed comedy.
Summit’s box office sensation Twilight is in for an enormous percentage tumble, but it should still hold well-enough to finish #2 over the 5 days. I have seen the movie, and I actually think it has a chance of expanding beyond its teen girl fan base. Director Catherine Hardwicke has knocked this one out-of-the-park, Kristen Stewart is very solid, and once you get past Robert Pattinson’s annoying James Dean-affectedness, he is a solid choice for Edward Cullen.
After $69.6M in its opening weekend, Twilight could be down 72% to $18.9M for the upcoming Friday-Saturday-Sunday traditional frame. Still, I anticipate a respectable $30.7M for the 5-day, which would push the vampire love saga’s domestic gross to $110M by Monday morning.
After a very tepid start, the well-reviewed Bolt from Walt Disney Animation Studios has a real chance of finishing at third, matching in 5 days what it delivered on opening weekend. I am predicting about $27.1M, which would be great news for Pixar’s John Lasseter, who is the executive producer of Bolt and the new guiding force behind Disney Animation.
All of those teen and tween girls who flooded multiplexes for Twilight last weekend will make room for this talking dog family movie, featuring the voice of Hannah Montana herself, Miley Cyrus. If my number is right, Bolt will have a very respectable 10-day cume of about $60M or so.
Transporter 3 (Lionsgate) will go head-to-head with Quantum of Solace (Sony) for the purely male audience over the holiday. Last year’s Thanksgiving action pic was Hitman, starring Timothy Olyphant and now Quantum of Solace Bond girl Olga Kurylenko, and it managed about $20M over the 5-day.
Jason Statham returns to the role that put him on the map. 2002’s The Transporter opened with $9.1M followed by a $16.5M start for Transporter 2 in 2005. Industry tracking points to a $16.9M 3-day opening for Transporter 3, making it the all-time 3rd-best opening of Statham’s career.
ALL-TIME TOP 5 3-DAY OPENINGS FOR JASON STATHAM
1. The Italian Job – $19.4M
2. The One – $19.11M
3. Transporter 3 – $16.9M (predicted)
4. Transporter 2 – $16.5M
5. Death Race – $12.6M
For 5 days, Transporter 3 has a shot at a 3rd-place finish and a possible $26.8M. That would represent a 34% improvement over the performance of Hitman last Thanksgiving.
Baz Luhrmann’s Australia (Fox) is receiving wildly-mixed reviews, but they lean to the positive with 58% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Tuesday. The eclectic Luhrmann’s last film was the Oscar nominated Moulin Rouge! ($57.3M cume) back in 2001, so his core fans are ready to rush out and see this Gone With the Wind-style epic right away, but it remains to be seen if Australia will be in this year’s Oscar chase.
Females 25 Plus will be the core demo for this yarn from Down Under, but working against it are the checkered recent box office histories of its two stars Hugh Jackman and Nicole Kidman.
Jackman has only had one non-X-Men, non-animated film open with more than $20M (Van Helsing with $51.7M), and his last two films were notable bombs The Fountain ($3.7M opening – $10.1M cume) and Deception ($2.3M opening – $4.5M cume). Meanwhile, Kidman is box office poison with recent infamous disasters like Birth ($5M cume), Bewitched ($63.3M cume), Fur: An Imaginary Portrait of Diane Arbus ($223,000 cume), The Invasion ($15M cume) and the very expensive The Golden Compass ($70.1M cume).
There is decent heat on Australia, according to the current tracking. In fact, there is even a chance for a major upside surprise, and it all may be thanks to Oprah Winfrey, who did an hour with Luhrmann, Jackman and Kidman recently. Here is what “The Big O” said about Australia:
“Our hearts are all swelling because, my God, it’s just the film we needed to see. I have not been this excited about a movie since I don’t know when. It’s the best movie I’ve seen in a long, long, long, long time. It is epic, it is magic, it is a spectacle and the scenery is so gorgeous you can barely stand it. AUSTRALIA is going to make you jump on a plane and go Down Under.”
– Oprah Winfrey
This woman has got major pull with exactly the demo that this movie needs. Oprah’s endorsement counts for a lot. I think this one will top $20M for 5 days, finish at #5. In fact, my final number is $24M, which would bode well for Fox making back its investment and for awards season.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE 5-DAY THANKSGIVING WEEKEND
1. NEW – Four Christmases (Warner Bros) – $38.5M
2. Twilight (Summit) – $30.7M
3. Bolt (Disney) – $28M
4. NEW – Transporter 3 (Lionsgate) – $26.8M
5. NEW – Australia (Fox) – $24M
6. Quantum of Solace (Sony) – $21.5M
7. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $18.6M
8. Role Models (Universal) – $8.5M
9. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) – $3.4M
10. Changeling (Universal) – $2.9M
11. The Boy in the Striped Pajamas (Miramax) – $2.4M
12. Zack & Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) – $2.3M
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