J.J. Abrams’ Reboot of Classic ‘Star Trek’ Could Reach $65M for 4 Days! Easily Biggest ‘Trek’ Opening Ever & $200M+ Domestic is Possible!
by Steve MasonThe all-new J.J. Abrams reboot of Star Trek (Paramount) will win the second weekend of the Hollywood Summer Box Office season by at least a couple of light years over Fox’s fast-fading X-Men Origins: Wolverine, but some of the astronomical numbers I’ve seen floating around in the blogosphere are very over-heated. Make no mistake, this movie will open extraordinarily well, but it’s not going to play out as a typical front-loaded blockbuster. Moviegoers need time to shake off the disappointment of the final TV series Enterprise (starring Scott Bakula and canceled after four seasons) and the disastrous 2002 final film Star Trek: Nemesis ($43.3M domestic). It will take time for a new generation of fans to discover the magic of Gene Rodenberry’s vision of the future through Abrams’ magical lens.
As of Wednesday night, Star Trek is cruising with 94% Fresh (positive) reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, and critics are slinging some seriously glowing hyperbole.
“Paced at warp speed with spectacular action sequences rendered brilliantly and with a cast so expert that all the familiar characters are instantly identifiable, the film gives Paramount Pictures a new lease of life on its franchise.”
– Ray Bennett, HOLLYWOOD REPORTER
“It’s an exciting, stellar-yet-earthy blast that successfully blends the hip and the classic.”
– Joe Neumaier, NEW YORK DAILY NEWS
“Trading on affections sustained over 40 years of popular culture, STAR TREK does what a franchise reboot rarely does. It reminds us why we loved these characters in the first place.”
– Ty Burr, BOSTON GLOBE
“Blasting onto the screen at warp speed and remaining there for two hours, the new and improved STAR TREK will transport fans to sci-fi nirvana.”
– Todd McCarthy, VARIETY
LOST and ALIAS creator J.J. Abrams has successfully rebooted STAR TREK
Let’s be honest. Prior to what, by all accounts, is Abrams’ full-on Lazarus-style resurrection of Kirk, Spock and The Enterprise, Star Trek was dead. Worse than dead, it has been considered “uncool.” That’s what Paramount is fighting in the marketplace, and realistically, even in its peak as a movie franchise, it wasn’t a powerhouse.
The biggest opening weekend for a Star Trek movie was 1996’s Star Trek: First Contact with $30.7M and the top grossing title ever was Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home (with that ridiculous humpback whale storyline), which surpassed $109M. Consider this. Here are the top five opening days for movies in the Star Trek franchise.
ALL-TIME TOP 5 OPENING DAYS FOR STAR TREK MOVIES
1. Star Trek: First Contact (1996) – $13M
2. Star Trek: Generations (1994) – $9.7M
3. Star Trek: Insurrection (1998) – $9.5M
4. Star Trek: Nemesis (2002) – $7.7M
5. Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home (1986) – $7M
Erik Estrada as Ponch & Larry Wilcox as Jon Baker with Chris Pine's dad Robert, who played Sgt. Joe Getraer
When journeyman actor Robert Pine, best known for playing Sgt. Joe Getraer on the late 70’s TV hit ChiPs, appeared as an Akritirian Ambassador named Liria on the series Star Trek Voyager (the TV series with Kate Mulgrew as Captain), he could have never imagined that his son Chris would someday play Captain Kirk, but the 28-year-old is now in the Trek’s most pivotal role. He was excellent in a little movie called Bottle Shock last year, but aside from that, and roles in The Princess Diaries 2 and Smokin’ Aces, he is basically an unknown.
Original Gene Rodenberry STAR TREK television cast above and Abrams' 2009 casting choices below
In fact, the new Star Trek is filled with actors who are more-or-less unknown. Simon Pegg, the brilliant UK star of Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz and cast as the colorful Scotty here, is probably the biggest name in the cast along with John Cho from the Harold & Kumar movies, playing Sulu. But these are all talented actors who will wear well as the franchise turns into a steady hit machine for Paramount. Fans of NBC’s Heroes already know Zachary Quinto who gets to don Spock’s pointy ears and Chekov is being portrayed by one of my favorite young actors, 20-year-old Anton Yelchin, who was heartbreaking in the gritty Alpha Dog and showed a lighter touch in Charlie Bartlett. Trekkers are also likely to take to the sexy Zoe Saldana (Drumline, Guess Who?) who steps into Nichelle Nichols’ shoes as Uhura and will appear in James Cameron’s long-awaited Avatar at the end of the year.
The appropriate movie to look to for box office guidance is 2005’s Batman Begins. Great filmmaker (Christopher Nolan), spectacular reviews, but the franchise was dead and uncool after 1997’s ridiculous Batman & Robin. The reboot 8 years later opened on a Wednesday with $15M and had banked $72.9M in 5 days (the Friday-thru-Sunday was $48.7M). That lays the groundwork for an accurate prediction for Star Trek.
My bet is on a possible $65M for 4 days. With Thursday preview screenings starting at 7pm, Star Trek could snag as much as $8M on Thursday night (the Trekkers will be out in full force). Then Friday could be something in the $20.5M range with a slight uptick of 5% on Saturday to a possible $21.6M followed by a standard 30% Sunday drop to about $15M.
Once audiences realize that Star Trek is light year better than previous movies in the franchise (and last weekend’s Wolverine), the picture will play and play and play. I think that, of all of the major studio releases this summer, Star Trek may have the “longest legs.” If the movie opens within 5% of my number or bigger, the multiple (the number by which you multiply the opening weekend in order to arrive at the final domestic gross) could be 3.4-3.5, which would push J.J. Abrams reinvented Rodenberry opus to something in the $220M-$230M range.
I am anticipating a steep drop of 65%-70% for X-Men Origins: Wolverine, and producer/star Hugh Jackman will be forced to settle for a second weekend of $27M-$30M. That would still be a nifty 10-day gross of $130M or so.
Finally, Next Day Air (Summit), a low budget, R-rated urban comedy starring Donald Faison (Scrubs), Mike Epps (Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins), Wood Harris (The Wire) and Mos Def (Cadillac Records), will open in the shadow of the retooled U.S.S. Enterprise and is unlikely to wrap up the weekend with any more than $6M.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF MAY 8-10
1. NEW – Star Trek (Paramount) – $65M (includes Thursday previews)
2. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $30.6M
3. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $8.8M
4. Obsessed (Sony) – $6.7M
5. NEW – Next Day Air (Summit) – $6M
6. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $3.8M
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.7M
8. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $3.3M
9. Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $2.6M
10. Earth (Disney) – $2.4M
Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.
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32 Comments
There is still a little residual discomfort in our circles as far as how a film 'opens'. More of a measure of hype and distribution than real sign of quality, big openings do not necessarily a good film make. That said, one senses the genuine interest of a re-visitation of the storied franchise. it should look very good at IMAX as well.
Didn't realize Chris Pine was Robert E Pine's son; grew up with him on literally every TV show- The Fugitive, Untouchables, etc. plus Star Trek- so Chris is a legacy… cool…
Here's a prediction–opening weekend of $90 million. This might well rank as the Star Wars of the 21st Century. And since it's rebooting the original series–the one where Kirk and crew boldy went where no MAN had gone before, bringing truth, justice and the American Way to the far reaches of the galaxy in true New Frontier fashion–expect this to serve as a a pleasant rejoinder to the Obama-ism of our present foreign policy. Praise the multiculturalism, but pass the phasers!
I hope it’s good, I dig Star Trek from it’s beginnings.
If the critics love it, then it must be PC as hell.
I have super high hopes for this movie. Been that way ever since I heard Sylar was Spock.
The actors in the new Trek look like glossy models from some fashion show
I don't know what to think. I adore the original Star Trek, but I have ambivalent feelings about J.J. Abrams. He can establish an interesting premise, but something seems to go wrong in the execution. It's almost like he loses interest, moves on to something else, and just leaves the audience hanging. I hope that's not the case with Star Trek.
It looks great, I can't wait for Friday when I can see it. Everything I've seen and heard points to it being an excellent Sci-Fi flick.
Bait-and-switch! That Enterprise picture is a Computer-Generated version of the Refitted Enterprise from the Star Trek movie. Where's a picture of the new Enterprise?
By that, I meant the first Stra Trek movie.
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Posted May 6th 2009 at 6:05 pm in Entertainment, Featured Story, Steve Mason's Box Office | "
This post needs more tags.
Seriously. The tags are 60% as long as the post! What the hell?
I can't wait for the Friday that it comes out on DVD so I can see it too!
I have always loved the original Star Trek and it's subsequent featue films. Even the bad ones. I hope this one isn't full of leftie political comentary or metaphor.
http://shermansmarch.blogspot.com
If it's a good movie, who cares how much it makes initially at the box office? As someone said in the musical [Name of show] it's better to be 20 people's favorite thing than a 100 people's 20th favorite thing.
I hope Trek is not going to be like <del>Young Doctors In Heat</del> Grey's Anatomy.
All those young hormones in lonely outer space….
If there's a character talking about a carbon footprint or recycling, I'm walking out. The show is about utopia. They are not going to be bashing the old days – who cares.
As much as I love Star Trek, I will wait for the DVD. The horrible "Enterprise", the premature demise of "TNG" series, and the awful "TNG" movies ruined it for me. The storylines are played out for me. How much more reinterpretation is needed? It will go to cable soon.
I guess it's time to turn in my OG* Card…
I have always felt (and have seen it expressed on various other sites) that if you have to break the toys someone else created to tell your story, then it's best you don't play with them. So many of the current geek crowd fail to grasp this simple concept. They think that (insert favorite character/story) would be so much cooler if only it were like this (insert personality/motivation/power/plot/ never hinted at and often diametrically opposed to who they are or what the history is) instead of building upon the firm foundation already there. Why must we laud those who cannot seem to be able to create stories using these legends without totally deconstructing them? And rest assured, this movie does exactly that.
You can try and justify it by throwing out lingo like 'reboot', but then don't pretend that this story has any real connection to the original creation other than sharing names (Nimoy's cameo notwithstanding.) Attempting to justify it as an 'alternate universe' is also a poor story device to hang a franchise on; what happens when the hoi pollloi decide they're done with Trek again? "Well, guess it's time for another 'reboot'! So sorry that you were invested in these characters and stories!" The TOS characters are iconic – when I look at the new cast, I get a whiff of the ironic. For those who have asked me about the upcoming Trek reboot flick, here's how I feel about it: This week on Star Trek: 90210 – Kirk wrecks the Galileo 7 while taking it for a joyride with Uhura; Spock teaches McCoy the Vulcan Death Grip; Scotty gets drunk again; and Sulu wrestles with his feelings for Chekov. Guest starring Zach Braff, Hayden Panettiere, and Abe Vigoda.
R.I.P. Star Trek.
*Original Geek Card
I hope that the new film is a genuinely fresh start for the franchise. I went AWOL from the Enterprise way back in the days of "The Next Generation." The campy fun of the original series was replaced by a condescending smugness that the subsequent films and series spin-offs just made worse. (The fact that TNG featured the insufferable Whoopi Goldberg in a semi-regular role was a case in point.) The "Star-Trek" films with the original cast ran the gamut from great ("KHANNN!!!) to the unwatchable-unless-you-were-really-hammered. By the way…..Has anyone noticed that there seems to be a direct correlation between the rise of the Star Trek and Star Wars juggernauts (and related CGI entertainments) and humanity's waning interest in actually sending men (and women) into space? Is is possible that nobody is interested in real space exploration anymore because the fictional variety is so much better?
I have a question, though. The first Enterprise captain was Christopher Pike. Does he just get swept under the rug here?
You make a good point at the end, I was just thinking last night if Yellowstone went off or if the sneaker-asteroid hit we'd all be toast and for no good reason. We certainly have the resources now to at least make a permanent outpost on the moon, just in case we hit another population bottleneck.
I'll be seeing it at 10pm PST. Can't wait!
Bruce Greenwood plays Pike.
Does he get to be wheeled around in a washing machine with blinking lights?
Wasn't the first Enterprise captain Robert April? I think he was Pike's predecessor.
Personally, I liked Star Trek: Enterprise better than any incarnation since the original series, though Deep Space Nine had its moments. Yes it only lasted four seasons but as I recall, so did the original series.
you're wrong about the numbers the first star trek move in 1979 grossed over 200 million domestically.
revised, it made 82 million domestically and 200 million worldwide
Sorry Carolyn, but that remark puts you above 9.0 on the ST geek scale.
No, DS9 lasted 7 years like TNG and Voyager. I know because I watch all the episodes. The only exception is Enterprise, which sucked and was cancelled early.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Star_Trek:_D...
[...] so far have been more modest, ranging from $40 million (Box Office Prophets) to $65 million (Steve Mason at Big Hollywood) to $74 million (Box Office Guru). Variety, however, think it can top $100 [...]
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