‘Wolverine’ claws to $34.75M Friday & Could Scratch Out $86.8M Opening! All-Time 4th-Best Performer for First-Weekend-of-May Summer Kickoff!
by Steve MasonIn my Final Weekend Tracking column posted on Wednesday, I predicted that X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) would reach $92M on opening weekend, despite soft reviews (now only 38% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). My first fearless forecast of the 2009 summer blockbuster season appears to be close to dead-on (missed by only 5%).
Star-turned-producer Hugh Jackman has scored his second-biggest opening ever and, easily, his biggest as a solo star. Wolverine has mauled the competition with a massive $34.75M opening day (including $5M or so in Thursday midnight sales). That could translate to a 3-day of $86.8M, getting Hollywood’s most lucrative season off to a spectacular start.
The stars of WOLVERINE (from the left): Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool, Taylor Kitsch as Gambit, Hugh Jackman as Wolverine, Liev Schrieber as Sabretooth and Lynn Collins as Kayla Silverfox
The X-Men spin-off, which has been made for substantially less than the $210M budget ponied up for to produce 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand, becomes the all-time fourth-best first-weekend-of-May opening, trailing only Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M), the original 2002 Spider-Man ($114.8M) and last May’s Iron Man ($98.6M). Wolverine has also posted one of the top seven opening days ever for a comic book adaptation.
ALL-TIME BEST OPENINGS DAYS FOR COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS
1. The Dark Knight – $67.1M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $59.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand – $45.1M
4. Spider-Man 2 – $40.4M
5. Spider-Man – $39.4M
6. Iron Man – $35.2M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $34.75M (estimated)
8. X2: X-Men United – $31.2M
9. 300 – $28.1M
10. Watchmen – $24.5M
And, as comic book movies go, Jackman’s solo effort has cut and sliced through the pack to become the all-time seventh-best 3-day start.
X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE will not match the opening weekend of last year's summer starter IRON MAN
ALL-TIME BEST OPENING WEEKENDS FOR A COMIC BOOK ADAPTATION
1. The Dark Knight – $158.4M
2. Spider-Man 3 – $151.1M
3. Spider-Man – $114.8M
4. X-Men: The Last Stand – $102.7M
5. Iron Man – $98.6M
6. Spider-Man 2 – $88.1M
7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $86.8M (projected)
8. X2: X-Men United – $85.5M
9. 300 – $70.8M
10. Hulk – $62.1M
How does Jackman hold his silverware during dinner?
Jackman himself is getting lots of positive feedback on his personal Twitter page, but there is some real negative feedback in the Twitterverse. Here are some actually Tweets from movie fans that have been posted in the last couple of hours.
if its wolverine dont waste your time
Wolverine sucks!
Wolverine: not too bad. Better than the horrible second X-Men movie. Coolest thing was preview for District-9.
I went and paid for 2 movie tix to see that damn Wolverine movie. I just wasted my money.
Wolverine was ok – too much smooshed into one movie and too many things attempted to be neatly wrapped up and squared away.
Saw Wolverine. It was weak.
What does Hugh Jackman being a hottie have 2 do w/ how crappy the movie is?
Oh my God Wolverine was just as bad as everyone was saying.
out to see Wolverine! Ill let you guys know how bad it is.
“don’t waste your money” unless you’re a huge fan. Like 2nd X-files bad.
So, it appears that fans are as tepid about this movie as film critics. X-Men Origins: Wolverine will likely be very front-loaded both for the weekend and the long haul. I’m guessing that the weekend could play out like this. Wolverine did $5M Thursday at midnight and has added another $29.75M Friday (for a $34.75M opening day). Then Saturday, the movie may drop 9% to $31.6M or so, followed by a Sunday dip of 36% to just over $20M.
Jackman is not just another action star; Here he is in his Tony-winning performance in Broadway's BOY FROM OZ
After speaking with a number of competing studios, the consensus is that Wolverine will have a multiple of less than two. (The multiple is the number by which you multiply the opening weekend to arrive at the ultimate domestic gross.) With a multiple in the 1.8-1.9 range, the summer’s first movie spectacle will finish at $156-$165M. That’s a good, but not great number. Meanwhile, Star Trek (Paramount) has a chance to be this year’s Iron Man, an early May release that plays deep into the summer at a high multiple in the 3.2-3.3 range.
Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner are creating some sparks in GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST
The other wide release in the marketplace this weekend is the poorly-reviewed Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros). With Matthew McConaughey and Jennifer Garner as the romantic leads and an assist from Oscar winner Michael Douglas, Ghosts has performed decently, especially with Females 25 Plus. The Mark Waters-directed rom-com coaxed an estimated $6M in opening day sales and will likely reach about $16.5M for the weekend. That’s would be 12% stronger than last year’s first-weekend-of-May chick-flick counter programming, Made of Honor, which finished second to Iron Man with $14.7M.
Ali Larter (center) and Beyonce (right) come to blows over THE WIRE's Idris Elba in OBSESSED
Last weekend’s box office champ Obsessed (Sony) – the one where Beyonce “tromps a tramp” (played by Ali Larter from Heroes) – took a nosedive with just $4.2M or so on Friday. It seems headed for an estimated 3-day of $12.39M, down 57% from its opening, but the genre pic with a budget of only $20M will still have $47M in the bank by Monday. That’s a very profitable little movie.
Tween are pushing Zac Efron's 17 AGAIN past the $50M mark
The Warner Bros comedy 17 Again, starring tween dream Zac Efron, continues to perform well with about $2.22M to start the weekend and a possible $6.62M for the frame. Zac’s high-concept comedy will have topped $48.7M domestic in its first 17 days of release.
The new nature doc EARTH is really just the Cliff Notes for the extraordinary BBC miniseries PLANET EARTH
Disney’s Earth, a 90-minute version of the BBC’s 11-hour 2006 miniseries Planet Earth, will round out the top five for the first official weekend of summer. The nature doc grabbed $1.45M on its second Friday and is targeting $5.81M and a new 12-day cume of $23.47M by Monday.
The other wide release is the 3-D pic Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions). It is on just over 1,100 screens, but has managed only about $300,000 on opening day. I did see a commercial for Terra during American Idol this week, so there was some money spent, but it couldn’t have been much. Despite respectable reviews, this cg animated flick is destined for no more than $1M. That’s a full-on disaster.
EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $34.75M, $8,478 PTA, $34.75M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $6M, $1,890 PTA, $6M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $4.2M, $1,671 PTA, $39M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $2.22M, $682 PTA, $44.36M cume
5. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.7M, $836 PTA, $14.2M cume
6. Earth (Disney) – $1.45M, $804 PTA, $19.11M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.41M, $537 PTA, $178M cume
8. Fighting (Rogue) – $1.4M, $608 PTA, $14.73M cume
9. State of Play (Universal) – $1.28M, $527 PTA, $28.51M cume
10. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $1.1M, $390 PTA, $67.88M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – $300,000, $258 PTA, $300,000 cume
EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) – $86.8M, $21,194 PTA, $86.8M cume
2. NEW – Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) – $16.5M, $5,197 PTA, $16.5M
3. Obsessed (Sony) – $12.39M, $4,928 PTA, $47.19M cume
4. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $6.62M, $2,034 PTA, $48.76M cume
5. Earth (Disney) – $5.81M, $3,221 PTA, $23.47M cume
6. The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.7M, $2,804 PTA, $18.2M cume
7. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $5.65M, $2,152 PTA, $182.25M cume
8. State of Play (Universal) – $4.31M, $1,765 PTA, $31.54M cume
9. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $3.96M, $1,405 PTA, $70.74M cume
10. Fighting (Rogue) – $3.76M, $1,630 PTA, $17.1M cume
*NEW – Battle For Terra (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – $1M, $878 PTA, $1M cume
Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.
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11 Comments
First!
I wonder how much of the Swine Flu scare might have shrunk Wolverine's audience? Or maybe I'm just over playing it.
Either way the good but not great opening is just more good news for next week's Star Trek.
Hate to be the @nal guy, but your numbers can't possibly be adjusted for inflation (not just this post). I'd be really interested in seeing how current blockbusters stack up next to the films of yore. Maybe you could do both total dollars and adjusted dollars?
Everyone in the movie theatre I was in seemed completely engaged in the movie. I think the average movie patrons who don't have hang ups because of the comics and mythology of the character will enjoy this movie for everything it offers. Great acting, good story, awesome action and fight sequences. Well worth the price of admission. I hope this movie does extremely well because I think Fox has an opportunity to really explore the entire Xmen universe.
Gordon Winslow,
I've been following Steve Mason since before he came to this website and, while I like his commentary, one thing I've noticed is he really only cares about how much movies make in actual dollars. It is a terrible metric for saying how a movie stacks up against any others, besides those that came out in the past few years. But… if you go the Box Office Mojo website, click on the Box Office-All Time link on the left, then click on the Adjusted for Inflation link you should see the comparison you are hoping for, at least for the biggest movies of all time.
Hello all,
I generally don't track Adjusted for Inflation. If that is a metric you like, I encourage you to use Mojo. Because I am a writer (and also a movie theatre owner), I generally only care about real 2009 dollars. Call me a capitalist I guess.
Mase
[...] to Big Hollywood, the film has had quite the successful start to its weekend and is looking to round up somewhere in [...]
[...] to Big Hollywood, the film has had quite the successful start to its weekend and is looking to round up somewhere in [...]
I haven't see it yet but I will within the next few days and I'm pretty sure I will like it.
I don't know why people play to see a movie they think they are sure they will dislike, is it to go onto Twitter later and bitch about it? If I don't like the look of a movie I don't spend any money on it unless someone I trust says it is actually good.
I will be going into the movie expecting a big dump action movie based on a comic, on that premise (and having seen the 3 X-Men films), how can I be disappointed? And I too hope they make more movies based on the X-Men universe.
Steve is exactly right (despite being a Laker fan). With the advent of 3D movie pricing it's going to be impossible to adjust for inflation. A show of Monsters vs. Aliens can outgross a show of Wolverine but still have significantly less people (at my theater our 3D tickets are 35% more then regular shows).
I'd like to point out the difficultly of comparing eras. For example older films, say pre-VHS era often had multiple releases. When figuring the gross of Gone With the Wind or Star Wars it's difficult to say how much that gross is adjusted by inflation since it didn't just make money the year it was released. These movies often had release over many different decades. It's hard to pin down it's adjusted gross.
Also consider movies that play in two different years. In 2003 Return of the King was the top film of the year. That film came out in December. Do we adjust it's inflation-gross by 2003 or 2004. Boxofficemojo says tickets jumped .18 cents in 2004, but I doubt most theatre's changed right on 1/1/04. Do we factor all the gross based on 2003? Do find out how much it made in each year and factor it that way? Do we find out when theatres raised their ticket prices in 2004 and see if it affected ROTK?
Thirdly you have the case of reduced tickets prices for matinees, children and seniors. Spider-man 3 outgrossed Shrek 3 by 14million dollars in 2007. But you can bet a lot of those Shrek tickets where kids tickets and matinee adult tickets. Shrek 3 may well have out-drawn Spidey 3. So when comparing grosses are we just using avg. ticket price or should we also adjust for ticket price based on time of day and age of patron?
These examples are meant to demonstrate how imprecise inflation-adjusted grosses are.
Personally, I'd like a box office system that tracks tickets sold, not just dollar grosses. Sadly we don't have that and likely never will. For now Box Office grosses in dollars are all we have.
Love Hugh Jackman – in whatever role he plays. Seems like a good guy too.
That Jackman photo makes me think the movie is a cross between "Nightmare on Elmstreet" and "Grease"
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