Hollywood’s Worst Release Date: Beyonce’s ‘Obsessed’ Could Edge Disney’s Baby Polar Bears in ‘Earth!’
by Steve MasonThe final weekend of April has never been Hollywood’s favorite release date. In fact, it is generally considered to be among the worst release dates on the calendar. Whatever opens on the final weekend of April gets absolutely crushed by the official start of the summer blockbuster season on the first weekend of May.
- Beyonce’s OBSESSED could win the final weekend before WOLVERINE
The 4 new wide releases and 1 major specialty release set to debut this weekend will face an onslaught of mega-hits over the next month. How can Obsessed (Sony), Earth (Disney), The Soloist, (Dreamworks/Paramount), Fighting (Rogue) and The Informers (Senator) possibly find an audience with X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Fox) and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past (Warner Bros) arriving next weekend followed by, in successive weeks, Star Trek (Paramount), Angels & Demons (Sony), the combo of Night at the Museum 2 (Fox) and Terminator: Salvation (Fox) and Disney/Pixar’s Up?
X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE starring Hugh Jackman will be unleashed next weekend
End of April starters have tended to be genre pics like 2003’s Identity and The Invisible (2007), mid-budget messes that have fallen short of expectations like the ridiculous Next (2007) starring Nicolas Cage and XXX: State of the Union in ’05, and tough-to-sell pictures like the excellent United 93 (2006) from director Paul Greengrass and the good-hearted 2006 movie Akeelah & the Bee. Tina Fey is the unofficial queen of the last weekend of April, writing and starring in Mean Girls and mugging her way through Baby Mama with Amy Poehler last year.
30 ROCK's Tina Fey has starred in 2 of the 3 biggest last weekend of April openers ever
ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS ON LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL
1. Mean Girls (2004) – $24.4M
2. Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Universe (2005) – $21.1M
3. Baby Mama (2008) – $17.4M
4. RV (2006) – $16.4M
5. Identity (2003) – $16.2M
6. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay (2008) – $14.9M
7. XXX: State of the Union (2005) – $12.7M
8. Driven (2001) – $12.1M
9. United 93 (2006) – $11.5M
10. Stick It (2006) – $10.8M
The likely weekend winner will be either Obsessed or Disney’s nature doc Earth, which opened Wednesday to about $4M, but I am giving the nod to recording superstar Beyonce despite the fact that Sony has kept its exploitative-looking thriller completely under wraps. Under its Screen Gems banner, Sony knows how to squeeze one good weekend out of movie like this regardless of how bad it is. Last year, Screen Gems scored excellent 3-day starts for sub-par movies like Prom Night ($20.8M), First Sunday ($17.7M), Lakeview Terrace ($15M), Quarantine ($14.2M) and Untraceable ($11.3M). Industry tracking suggests that Beyonce could drive the certain-to-be-forgettable Obsessed to a decent $15M opening weekend, and it will likely play very well at inner city theatre properties.
That would push Earth to #2 for the frame. The Earth Day opening was successful, and critics love the film (83% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). Family audiences love cute baby animals so Disney has excerpted the amazing BBC miniseries Planet Earth to fashion their own March of the Penguins-style narrative nature doc. It’s hard to imagine anything cuter than baby polar bears sliding down a snow bank, and it’s hard to come up with anything scarier than a Great White Shark lunging out of the water after its prey. I have seen the full length miniseries, but not Disney’s movie. Still it’s hard to imagine this not being unbelievably compelling stuff, even in its 90 minute theatrical version (although I still recommend tracking down the full BBC series instead). I am forecasting a possible $13.2M for 3-days, which would mean a 5-day start of just over $19M.
Last weekend’s champ, 17 Again (Warner Bros) starring ‘tween heartthrob Zac Efron, should hold up fairly well. The word-of-mouth is very positive, and that could mean a drop of only 46% or so to about $12.7M and a new cume of just over $40M by Monday.
Oscar nominee Robert Downey, Jr. (TROPIC THUNDER) and Academy Award winner Jamie Foxx (RAY) star in THE SOLOIST
The Joe Wright-directed The Soloist has been juggled around the release schedule with abandon, but it has been very well marketed with a heavy TV campaign, especially during shows geared for the 25+ crowd. The reviews are a mixed bag (54% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but there will be some business in this title. Some of my sources are saying $12M-$14M, but I am calling for a possible $11.6M.
The well-reviewed Russell Crowe journalism thriller State of Play (Universal) will almost certainly hang onto a spot in the top 5. The dip will be gentle (maybe 35%-40%), and this very good adult film could generate another $9M in ticket sales.
FINAL PREDICTION FOR APRIL 24-26
1. NEW – Obsessed (Sony) – $15M
2. NEW – Earth (Disney) – $13.2M
3. 17 Again (Warner Bros) – $12.7M
4. NEW – The Soloist (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $11.6M
5. State of Play (Universal) – $9M
6. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $7.9M
7. Hannah Montana: The Movie (Disney) – $7.4M
8. NEW – Fighting (Rogue) – $7M
9. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $5.8M
10. Crank: High Voltage (Lionsgate) – $2.8M
11. Knowing (Summit) – $2M
12. NEW – The Informers (Senator) – $1.7M
Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.
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45 Comments
Well, I never thought I'd say this. I'm rooting for Beyonce over those damn polar bears. Unless they'll film Beyonce holding onto an ice chunk, in which case I will root for the polar bears to join her.
I'm also looking forward to seeing Jamie Foxx play the cello while whispering sweet obscenities to fourteen year old girls passing by.
The last movie I saw in an actual theater was Casino Royale. The only movie I WANT to see in a theater this year is Up.
When it comes to the want-to-see factor for me, 99% of what gets released will lose to anything Pixar releases.
I agree, the last movie I viewed in a theater was the green mile.
Sounds like the evening news.
And how much do you want to bet Fox News Channel won't cover it? Red Eye will pick it up later, though.
Don't you mean Red Eye will be on top of it? :-O
Beyonce, Robert, and Jamie are pimping the hell out of their films. Obsessed looks wretched, and Soloist looks sappy, but I can see more people going to Obsessed, of which Idris Elba has got to be the ONLY bright spot–Stringer Bell 4evah! Family budgets may have been stretched by back to back weekends of Hannah Montana and 17 Again, so I wonder if they may not be as likely to take everyone to another family film like Earth? I gotta say though–every time the little duckie jumps out of the tree in the commercial I say "aawww…"
Here's a movie I bet few people can find, but which I found uplifting and wonderful: "Every Little Step," the documentary about the casting of the revival of "A Chorus Line." (I want to say you don't need to be familiar with the show to appreciate it, but it would help) It's a great little movie, hope some of you can seek it out!
I will personally be ELATED if a nature documentary out-earns what amounts to "Oh No She Di'int!: The Movie."
I will personally be ELATED if a nature documentary out-earns what amounts to "Oh No She Di'int!: The Movie."
So that's why, back in 2005, the big screen version of "Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy" opened at number one but fell off so quickly it couldn't make back it's production costs. And that's a shame because it was pretty good and I've been eagerly awaiting for some film adaptation of some of the other Hitchhiker books like "Restaurant at the end of the Universe".
HAH! They should have called it, "White She Devil" (courtesy "Undercover Brother")
You are a very nasty man. I like that.
Oh sure, early today I'm soft on torture, now I'm a nasty man. . . wait a minute, that doesn't sound right.
Oh sure, early today I'm soft on torture, now I'm a nasty man. . . wait a minute, that doesn't sound right.
It just means you're nasty, but you're impotent. Or maybe you're nasty because you're impotent. God, I think I'm still shell-shocked.
That's it, you're off my Christmas card list.
As for being shell-shocked, you know that others will follow your lead. It's going to be like a serial train wreck. . . one after another.
I'm sorry. The devil made me do it. Get thee behind me, G-Beast666. There, now everything's OK. I can go back to being my sweet, reasonable self. Hang in there gang. No lemming stuff.
I must say, I find Beyonce to be mind-bendingly beautiful, and off the scale in terms of sex appeal, but other than that, I'm not a fan of her work.
Just what is that determines a movie's release date? Why release anything at all the last weekend in April if your afraid it's going to get creamed because the very next week is "the official start of the summer blockbuster season"? No sarcasm intended, I'm really curious.
"Obsessed" ……didn't they already do that movie? With Glen Close and a rabbit.
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Sounds like a good weekend to read a book.
http://the100mostannoyingthings.blogspot.com/
Okay, so couldn't you have found a somewhat less attractive picture of Beyonce? It would be difficult, I know.
I agree with the earlier commenter. She is a lovely, lovely young woman. I'm just not a fan of her work, either.
Just wait until it's on TV then watch with the sound off.
[...] The Two Malcontents added an interesting post today on Hollywoodâ [...]
LOL.. that one and "The Hebrew Hammer" are among my favorites.
I didn't know she did a version of "Alice in Wonderland"!
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If I saw The Green Mile in the theater, I too would want to stay away from the theater.
You guys are sick, little monkeys. Keep up the good work.
Beyonce Beyonce??? Give us a break….it's like going to see a Black Gidget movie in the 60's.
Let's all do our kids a favor and tell em it's a marketing thang with this chick. A Breck girl just
like Clairol girl kind of singer Taylor Swift. Take your kids to EARTH !!! Besides Punkin is right,
they already made that movie with Glen Close.
Just curious why no one mentions the obvious race-baiting of Obsessed? Oh, yeah — I forgot. That's okay if the villain is white (which they always are). Black girl gonna kick some skinny blonde bitch ass, right?
Yeah…that's okay with everyone.
Obsessed looks like a terrible B-movie given Beyonce cannot act! She plays herself in almost every role. I know she's looking to spread her wings as an actress, but she should be aware of her limitations. Stick to music Beyonce.
Yes. It's a superior film to Obsessed; on the other hand, the Beyonce film looks like it should be aired on Lifetime Network instead of the theater.
Beyonce may be an ok singer but oh dear, as an actress, she is dreadful, absolutely cringe inducing awful.
I'm now convinced you two are the same person.
LOL!! We prefer "eccentric" to "sick little monkeys", but oh well. . . tomato / tomahto.
That's a disturbing idea. Any idea which one of us is real and which is just being imagined? It matters on my taxes.
Take your time. . .
I wouldn't want to sway you in any way, but… I mean, come on… a "conservative" in San Francisco? Not very believable right?
We can admit it. We're twin sons of different mothers, twenty years apart.
Excellent, so we both get the tax deduction! Good thinking. That's a lot better than what I came up with. Sorry for thinking you didn't exist. . . well, sort of sorry, a little. . . a little less in fact as I keep typing.
The sequel to XXX starring Ice Cube was just as harsh in terms of the "kill the White girl" mindset. Interestingly, feminist groups like NOW were complaining about Cube shooting a White woman, albeit an evil one.
PC has backfired on the White radical feminists.
Actually, Obsessed sounds like "Fatal Attraction" meets Spike Lee's "Jungle Fever," which also had a "White girl bashing" scene.
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