Summit scores a nice hit with KNOWING, which could reach $60M domestic, while I LOVE YOU, MAN has a shot at $70M in the US!
by Steve MasonIt was another good weekend for Summit Entertainment. The distributor behind last year’s meteoric hit Twilight has scored a solid hit with the Alex Proyas-directed Knowing, starring Nicolas Cage. Despite shaky word-of-mouth and negative reviews, the sci-fi thriller got a solid 9% bump on Saturday for a $9.7M second day, and it will likely finish its opening weekend with a possible $24.8M.
As a production company, Summit is responsible for some monster hits, including commercially and/or artistically successful films like Once (Oscar nominee for Best Picture), American Pie ($102..5M domestic), Memento (Oscar nominee for Best Original Screenplay: Chris Nolan), Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($186.3M domestic) and In the Valley of Ellah (Tommy Lee Jones nominated for Best Actor). But as a distributor, they got off to a slow start.
SUMMIT RELEASES
- in sequential order -
11/9/07 – P2 – $4M cume
2/29/08 – Penelope – $10M cume
3/14/08 – Never Back Down – $24.8M cume
8/15/08 – Fly Me To the Moon – $13.2M cume
10/17/08 – Sex Drive – $8.4M cume
11/21/08 – Twilight – $191.3M cume
2/6/09 – Push – $30.9M cume
3/20/09 – Knowing – $24.8M opening – $55M-$60M projected cume
As I wrote Friday, I think that word-of-mouth is weak for Knowing, but the movie held up pretty well over opening weekend. It is definitely helped by it’s PG-13 rating, its appeal to Males Under 25 (especially Under 17’s), and its similarity to Cage’s National Treasure franchise.
Meanwhile, I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) ticked up 8% on Saturday to about $6.8M, and it will have banked about $18M by Monday morning. That is on par with Paul Rudd’s Role Models ($19.1M opening) and Jason Segal’s Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($17.7M opening). I’m sticking with $65M-$70M as my projection for domestic box office for this very funny movie that happens to have a very good heart.
I really wonder about the R-rating for I Love You, Man. It is a very, very soft R. There is no nudity or sex (although there are references to oral sex in particular), and it doesn’t roll up a high count of F-bombs. It seems to me that the ratings board was hard on this one, and a PG-13 rating could have meant an additional $5M-$8M (at least) on opening weekend.
DUPLICITY is Julia Roberts' first feature lead since 2003's MONA LISA SMILE
The other new wide release is Duplicity (Universal), starring Julia Roberts and Clive Owen. This is a very smart, densely-plotted, stylish-looking movie for grown-ups. Writer/director Tony Gilroy is among the best screenwriters in town with all three Jason Bourne movies on his resume along with the legal thriller Michael Clayton, nominated for 7 Academy Awards.
With Females 25 Plus as its most important demo, the film got a big 27% Saturday bump to almost $6M. I saw the movie Saturday night, and it was about 60% women with lots of women in pairs and groups. That is a very good sign for future weeks since Females 25 Plus are never in a rush to see a movie on opening weekend. The audience I was in was mesmerized and laughed in all the right places, but overall, the CinemaScore exit survey was only a C. I still belive that, after a $14.4M third-place finish, Duplicity will get to the $45M-$50M range in the US.
Not strong enough to hold an audience for weekend #2 of RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN
Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) is not holding well at all, dipping to $13M for the weekend. A 46% second weekend drop spells an early end for the new one starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. It is just not especially well-liked, and Monsters Vs. Aliens (Dreamworks Animation) will destroy it next weekend.
Sorry Rohrschach, WATCHMEN is completely burned out
Finally, Watchmen (Warner Bros) suffered a second consecutive disastrous 3-day, down another 62% to $6.7M for a 17-day cume of $98M. Zack Snyder’s adaptation of Alan Moore’s classic graphic novel is unlikely to reach much past $110M in the US, and with a soft foreign performance as well, it will struggle to reach any real profitability.
STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $24.81M, $7,447 PTA, $24.81M cume
2. NEW – I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $18M, $6,640 PTA, $18M cume
3. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $14.4M, $5,595 PTA, $14.4M cume
4. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $13M, $4,080 PTA, $44.71M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $6.72M, $1,916 PTA, $98M cume
6. The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.92M, $2,465 PTA, $24.04M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $4.4M, $1,654 PTA, $133.43M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.7M, $1,306 PTA, $137.2M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.51M, $1,368 PTA, $87.2M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.14M, $1,498 PTA, $72.8M cume
Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.
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10 Comments
I Love You, Man was pretty good. Knowing looks painful from the trailer. Cage is so bland and one dimensional. I have a hard time looking at him as an assassin one minute and a nuclear physicist the next with that same monotone voice and expression.
"In the Valley of Elah" wasn't a "monster hit." It wasn't even a hit. It wasn't even a good movie. For clarity's sake.
[...] Here is the original: Summit scores a nice hit with KNOWING, which could reach $60M domestic, while I LOVE YOU, MAN has a … [...]
"I Love You, Man" will probably do well. The trailer indicate some clever, raunchy humor. I'm just tired of this whole "man-crush" thing. I have lots of male friends, and I don't remember any of us having anything more than a strong feeling of camaraderie. At least Greg Gutfeld doesn't pretend to love his houseboys. Well now that I just went off on a homophobic tangent, I just lost half those male friends I spoke of. At least the ones in San Francisco. Or maybe not. This is confusing. Ignore everything I just said.
DUPLICITY is BOMBING…get a clue Steve. It isn't smart, it's lazy and depends on a name and not a script.
Soft R? Read http://www.screenit.com/movies/2009/i_love_you_ma... for details — 54 "f" words, and lots of sexual material….
"Knowing" has an underlying Religious theme. I am certain that the critics are hammering it because of that. On a scale of 1 to ten its about a 6. It will do good money because word of mouth in religious community. Has a very uplifting message and its a movie families can go to.
I would be very surprised to find that there was not a LDS writer involved in the movie. It had quite a few references to LDS tradition and beliefs. It had one direct reference to a story found in the "Book of Mormon". I will not mention what because it has a drect connection to the rather surprising ending…..nothing big, just a few quotes hear and there.
I thought is was good movie but nothing I would go see again. Very impressive special effect though.
Nicholas Cage does a good job in the movie but he prob won't earn an oscar, but as an actor you got to pay the bills right…..lol
I just saw Knowing and I would agree with you TrueBlueMormon (heareafter referred to TBM) – While I am not Mormon I had a good friend who was and I would agree with you on that angle – however my friend and I were playing a game afterwords trying to see how we could write it better – the premise was good and the movie was good for about 3/4 – then , well, I guess people will have to see if for themselves and decide…
Well said Bill…I was hoping I wasn't the only one that picked it up…:)
"Once" wasnt nominated for Best Picture. It won an Oscar for Best Song for "Falling Slowly." If you enjoy an old fashioned, low key movie then rent "Once."
I enjoyed both "I Love You, Man" and "Duplicty." Both movies will carry themselves through word of mouth. I think they exceed standard genre pics. "Knowing" looks terrible. Of course, its doing well!
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