KNOWING grabs $8.95M Friday & targets $23.2M weekend, but word-of-mouth may push I LOVE YOU, MAN to $70M domestic; DUPLICITY gets a only a C from CinemaScore!
by Steve MasonEarly box office returns are pointing to a weekend win for Knowing from Summit, but I will put my money on I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) to generate more in US ticket sales over the long haul. The Nicolas Cage sci-fi thriller has grabbed an estimated $8.95M to start the weekend, and it will likely finish at $24M or so. That is, unless word-of-mouth catches up to it first.
Will reviews and word-of-mouth catch up to KNOWING?
Reviews for Knowing, written and directed by Alex Proyas, the inventive filmmaker behind the visually striking 1998 film Dark City and the 2004 Will Smith mega-hit I, Robot, has received overwhelmingly negative reviews (25% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but thanks to Twitter, real-time movie-goer reactions spread like wildfire. Here are some Tweets I just grabbed off the social networking platform.
You can Follow me on Twitter@LAMase
Just saw the Knowing. How and why some movies get made is beyond me.
Nobody go see Knowing.
The Knowing was a great movie. BUT it made absolutely no sense, got kinda scary, and made me cry.. three times. Imagine Noah’s Ark in space.
Getting home from a lame movie. “Knowing” is better left unknown.
Just saw “Knowing” with Nicholas Cage – LOVED IT – don’t think many will though 
Notice the last Tweet. That movie fan is actually already anticipating bad word-of-mouth. Maybe they saw Knowing with friends, and they were the only one who liked it, or maybe the general reaction in the theatre was negative. Here’s an even scarier Tweet.
I’m in the worst movie ever, Knowing. Horrible.
Think about this. Someone is sitting in the theatre on a Friday night, and, while the movie is still playing, they send out a terrible personal review. Studios used to be able to count on suckering people into theatres for a bad movie as long as they had a big star and some cool commercials. Now, because of texting, Twitter and even Facebook (which has switched to a more Twitter-like status report format), poor reviews from Friday ticket-buyers may depress box office on Saturday and Sunday.
You have to wonder who is giving Academy Award winner Nicolas Cage career advice. Look at the Rotten Tomatoes review scores for his last 10 movies.
ROTTEN TOMATOES REVIEW SCORES FOR THE LAST 10 NIC CAGE MOVIES
-live action lead roles -
Knowing – 25%
Bangkok Dangerous – 9%
Ghost Rider – 27%
National Treasure 2 – 32%
Next – 30%
The Wicker Man – 15%
World Trade Center – 70%
Lord of War – 61%
The Weather Man – 57%
National Treasure – 43%
Obviously, there is sometimes a huge disconnect between critical and commercial success. Ghost Rider and the National Treasure films were huge blockbuster hits, but The Wicker Man, Next, and Bangkok Dangerous were flat-out awful.
From Best Actor to WICKER MAN
Despite initial reactions, the family-friendly PG-13 rating and similarity to National Treasure will still sell some tickets in the next few weeks. The movie is likely headed to something in the $52-$60M range in the US, and it will likely perform fairly well overseas because of Cage’s drawing power.
Jason Segal (left) and Paul Rudd, the likable stars of John Hamburg's I LOVE YOU, MAN
At #2 for the day, and most likely for the 3-day, is John Hamburg’s I Love You, Man starring Paul Rudd and Jason Segal. Riding phenomenal reviews (81% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and huge buzz from its screening at the South By Southwest Conference and Festival, the R-rated comedy has opened to about $6.35M Friday, and I am projecting $18M for opening weekend.
Among the Twitteratti (tech slang for the early adopters of Twitter), I Love You, Man is already a word-of-mouth hit. Here are some sample Tweets.
go see I Love You Man, its HILARIOUS.
i love you, man is one of the funniest movies i have seen in a while.
Just saw I Love You, Man. Waaaaaay funnier than I expected. Oh god, it was good. Stay a little bit into the credits if you go.
Just saw “I love you, Man” it was awesome!
Just saw “I Love You Man.” Loved it! Haven’t laughed that hard in awhile!
I love I Love You, Man. I’m also in love with Rashida Jones.
“I Love You, Man” – while not lol hysterical, was pretty funny in parts (albeit raunchy) … overall, I enjoyed it … solid B or B+
We are in a sort of a Golden Age for raunchy R-rated comedy, and this movie is an above average example. Rudd, who made his name as a supporting player in Judd Apatow films like Anchorman and The 40-Year-Old Virgin, is on a roll. Fresh from the success of last year’s Role Models ($67.3M US), he is the protagonist here, playing a charming dork without a best friend to be the best man at his wedding. Enter Jason Segal from TV’s How I Met Your Mother, a guy who scored huge with last year’s sleeper hit Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($63.1M domestic). As Sydney Fife, Segal is the ideal Venice Beach bum talking about his “Man Cave” and idolizing the band Rush, which reached its pinnacle in the 70’s and 80’s.
Writer/director John Hamburg
Writer/director John Hamburg, who previously wrote the classic Meet the Parents, followed by Zoolander (a cult fave of many) and Meet the Fockers (a mega-hit with over $500M worldwide despite falling well short of the laughs in the original Meet the Parents), made his directorial debut with the forgettable Along Came Polly ($88M domestic), starring Ben Stiller and Jennifer Aniston.
Rashida Jones, the daughter of musical legend Quincy Jones and 1970's icon Peggy Lipton (THE MOD SQUAD), co-stars in I LOVE YOU, MAN
If you wouldn’t have shown me the credits for I Love You, Man, I would have assumed that comedy king Judd Apatow has something to do with this one, but his name is nowhere to be found. Hamburg has grabbed reliable Apatow players like Rudd and Segal (Apatow produced Forgetting Sarah Marshall and the short-lived TV series Undeclared, starring Segal), and created a pic that looks and feels like an Apatow movie.
In my mind, the so-called Golden Age of R-rated comedy began in the summer of 2005 with Wedding Crashers and The 40-Year-Old Virgin. Audiences have a real appetite for this niche, and, aside from Will Ferrell’s misguided hoops pic Semi-Pro, The Heartbreak Kid from the Farrelly Brothers and Weinstein Company’s 2008 Zack & Miri Make a Porno, the movies have delivered both critically and commercially.
THE TOP 15 GROSSING R-RATED COMEDIES FROM “THE GOLDEN AGE”
1. 7/15/05 – Wedding Crashers – $33.9M opening – $209.2M cume
2. 8/17/07 – Superbad – $33M opening – $121.4M cume
3. 7/25/08 – Step Brothers – $30.9M opening – $100.4M cume
4. 6/1/07 – Knocked Up – $30.7M opening – $148.8M cume
5. 11/3/06 – Borat – $26.4M opening – $128.5M cume
6. 8/13/08 – Tropic Thunder – $25.8M opening – $110.5M cume
7. 8/6/08 – Pineapple Express – $23.2M opening – $87.3M cume
8. 8/19/05 – The 40-Year-Old Virgin – $21.4M opening – $109.4M cume
9. 11/7/08 – Role Models – $19.1M opening – $67.3M cume
10. 4/18/08 – Forgetting Sarah Marshall – $17.7M opening – $63.1M cume
11. 2/29/08 – Semi-Pro – $15M opening – $33.5M cume
12. 10/5/07 – The Heartbreak Kid – $14M opening – $36.8M cume
13. 9/21/07 – Good Luck Chuck – $13.6M opening – $35M cume
14. 10/31/08 – Zack & Miri Make A Porno – $10M opening – $31.4M cume
15. 8/25/06 – Beerfest – $7M opening – $19.2M cume
The multiple – the number you multiply opening weekend by in order to reach the final domestic gross – will be high here. My early rough projection for gross domestic box office for I Love You, Man is something in the $67M-$75M range.
Tony Gilroy with his MICHAEL CLAYTON star George Clooney
The other wide release is Tony Gilroy’s Duplicity (Universal), starring Oscar winner Julia Roberts and Academy Awards nominee Clive Owen. Gilroy is directing for only the second-time after his Oscar nominated performance with Michael Clayton. He is a writer first, and, in addition to scripting the three Jason Bourne movies, he loves corporate paranoia (like in 1997’s over-the-top The Devil’s Advocate) and intricate plotting (as in 2000’s Proof of Life and Michael Clayton). Duplicity plays to his strengths.
Does she still have "it"?
Despite the presence of the rarely-seen Roberts, the film has failed to top industry expectations. Duplicty grabbed an estimated $4.7M on opening day and seems headed for about $14.86M and fourth-place by Monday. I have been told that Duplicity received a very soft C rating from opening day audiences surveyed by CinemaScore, but because 25 Plus Females don’t always rush right out to see a movie, this one could still get to $40M-$45M domestic, which would be respectable.
I had penciled in Disney’s Race To Witch Mountain, starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, for #3 with about $17M, but the movie is not holding well at all. Race managed only $3.8M on its second Friday, and I am targeting $14.63M for the weekend. That’s a 10-day cume of a rather soft $46.34M. The Dreamworks Animation 3-D spectacle Monsters Vs. Aliens will wipe it out next weekend.
It's past Doomsday for WATCHMEN
Rounding out the top five is Watchmen (Warner Bros), suffering another 62% drop. The Zack Snyder-directed graphic novel adaptation sold just $2M in tickets Friday, and the 3-day will be about $7M, and possibly less. On Monday, the movie’s domestic take will be at $97.81M, and Watchmen will look to fizzle to about $110M in the US.
PLEASE NOTE: I appreciate links to this column, but on some sites, people have been copying and pasting the whole column. It’s fine if some numbers are re-printed, but please link for the full story. Thanks!
EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $8.95M, $2,686 PTA, $8.95M cume
2. NEW – I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $6.35M, $2,342 PTA, $6.35M cume
3. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $4.7M, $1,825 PTA, $4.7M cume
4. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $3.8M, $1,192 PTA, $35.51M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $2M, $577 PTA, $93.36M cume
6. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $1.97M, $820 PTA, $20.09M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $1.37M, $517 PTA, $130.41M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $800,000, $391 PTA, $135.3M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $795,000, $433 PTA, $85.49M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $630,000, $440 PTA, 71.34M cume
EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Knowing (Summit) – $23.27M, $6,984 PTA, $23.27M cume
2. NEW – I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $18M, $6,640 PTA, $18M cume
3. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $14.63M, $4,591 PTA, $46.34M cume
4. NEW – Duplicity (Universal) – $13.86M, $5,384 PTA, $13.86M cume
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $6.48M, $1,846 PTA, $97.81M cume
6. The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.31M, $2,213 PTA, $23.44M cume
7. Taken (Fox) – $4.4M, $1,654 PTA, $133.43M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.93M, $1,428 PTA, $137.44M cume
9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.74M, $1,495 PTA, $87.44M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.29M, $1,607 PTA, $73M cume
Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.
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18 Comments
[...] Original post by Big Hollywood [...]
For what it's worth, I just saw this. Dug it. It's either going to IMPLODE or SOAR once the opening-night audience starts telling people about it… I'm not sure which one yet, but it'll be BECAUSE of how much ISN'T in the trailers. I won't give anything away (and would advise anyone planning on seeing it to avoid ALL reviews just in case) but to say that the trailers give almost NO indication of how far "out there" this goes, and how far it KEEPS going once it's there. There's going to be A LOT of folks going into this expecting something on the lines of "Number 23" or "DaVinci Code" who'll be walking out for good or ill in a thick haze of "WTF!??"
Thanks for the tip. Your description matches what I was originally picturing mentally. I won't despair after all.
"Apatow produced Forgetting Sarah Marshall and the short-lived TV series Undeclared, starring Segal"
Segal had a small recurring role in Undeclared but had a staring role in the Apatow produced Freaks and Geeks. Both fantastic shows get a hold of them if you haven't already.
Great Movie..
Didn't Dark City get some awful reviews? Did poor box office and became a cult DVD. I LOVE THAT MOVIE!
I've loved everything I've seen from Alex Proyas, and I expect I'll see this too and love it.
Heck, there have been movies that got rave reviews from everyone – I went to see them based on that and thought they were awful.
I say if the movie looks like something you might enjoy, even if it's just cool to look at for an hour and a half, give it a shot.
I don't go to the theater much any more, preferring to wait for the DVD. I recently rented A Scanner Darkly from Blockbuster (that one got awful reviews, and only appeared in theaters briefly). It was weird, not that easy to follow, but intriguing enough that I went and bought it. It's one of those movies you can't watch just once.
Steve, I love your postings and appreciate your insights! Keep 'em coming.
Long story short ('too late' I know), never mind reviews. Make up your own mind. This advice has served me well.
I hope the negative comments about "Knowing" are wrong, but it's not looking good. I was excited about watching the movie at home (never go to theaters in this crummy town) because the trailers looked really exciting. Too bad. It looks like it's turning out to be one of those movies where you've seen all the good stuff in the trailers and are doomed to spend the rest of the hour or two of the movie wondering what the hell you saw in it in the first place.
I'm not on Twitter, but here's what I'd have written about "Knowing" last night if I were:
"Stupid. Don't waste your money."
I love you man was really funny.
Julia Roberts – She's getting old and that may be one reason why her movie is not doing well. But I tell you, there are some of these Hollywood types (and Julia Roberts is one of them) who have crossed the line with a lot of people. My wife at one time was a big fan but no longer has any interest in movies she is in. I honestly never understood her appeal, but now I wouldn't watch one of her movies if it was free. The Clooneys, Penns, and Roberts of Hollywood have been openly antagonistic to conservatives in this country and I think it's catching up with them.
I saw Knowing yesterday.
Good. Almost great movie. But your enjoyment or hatred of the movie will depend almost totally on how much you know going in and whether or not you can roll with the story.
If you plan on seeing it this weekend, AVOID all reviews and or descriptions. To have a good WTF! movie experience.
*******NO DIRECT SPOILERS BUT YOU MAY NOT WANT TO READ IF YOU HAVEN'T SEEN THE MOVIE*****************
What Knowing has going for it is the same thing that the best horror and SF have. That is, an implacable internal logic that doesn't necessarily mirror what we know or expect from a movie. In fact, it seems as the story progresses more and more bat shit crazy but crazy with a purpose. How the movie works for you will be determined by how many of the story jumps you can take.
Think the Dark City director's cut, the Matrix or horror movies like Carpenter's The Thing, Cronenberg's The Fly and even Argento movies like Suspiria and Phenomena. Though a closer parallel would be a movie from 1991 called The Rapture with Mimi Rodgers.
I think the director?, writer?, studio? wanted to avoid the bleak, existential ending of The Rapture (an ending that makes the Rapture a truly great movie and provokes equal amount of love and hatred from viewers).
And their solution almost gets it right, but they forget that Knowing is a horror movie first.
The second from last scene with the kids was too explicit in my view. They should've amped up the creepiness and desperation that this act by Cage's character represents instead of the hope and alrightness of his act. Then the last scene would've been a welcome relief instead of a 2×4 cluebat wielded for (supposed or real)dumbasses in the audience.
I think they really missed a chance to make a great emotional movie by forgetting Knowing is at heart a horror movie. And instead wound up, with a good solid B movie.
********No True Spoilers But you Might Not Want To Read Before Seeing The Movie***************
Saw "Knowing" last night.
I go to Nicholas Cage's movies for entertainment. I don't find it entertaining to be propagandized about Big Business being a Big Villain (Duplicity, Michael Clayton), educated on social issues (Milk), Enlightened (Che) or treated like a Useful Idiot (most of the rest of Hollywood's films). I go to be ENTERTIANED, to lose myself in someone else's world. IF, in the meantime, I see some of my values and ideas while not endorsed, at least not demeaned, then that's a plus. That's knowing (pun intended).
No spoilers, so keep reading.
I was on the edge of my seat. The special effects were absolutely stupendous. Nicholas Cage was believable.
The problems were in plot holes one thought of AFTER the film was over. I would have ended it differently.
There was some subtlety to it that only the knowing (another pun) will catch.
Is it Academy Award material? Only in the Special Effects category. Will it keep you entertained? YES. Will you get sucker-punched with liberal propaganda? NO. Will your intelligence be insulted? NO.
Spouse and I went at 5:05. The theatre (stadium seating) was pretty full save for the seats down in the pit where nobody but kids sit anyway. That had people down there (who can sit there without getting dizzy?).
Saw Knowing last night. It's ok, but if that is supposed to be another Noah's Ark, why didn't it show more people or animals? Husband wanted to know what the tree suggested…told him I guess it was the Tree of Life.
Speaking of comedies, there hasn't been a good comedy since Mel Brooks stopped making movies, or Peter Sellars in the Pink Panthers, or John Candy. I still watch "HIgh Anxiety"!
[...] Steve Mason has the figures and analysis. [...]
People who twitter their opinions before the movie is over have no credibility. One can hope their twittering keeps them from talking, but I wouldn´t bet on it.
There is a herd-mentality with a lot of reviewers (maybe they sit in the same screenings) but the negative reviews were very uniform and seemed too smarmy and self-congratulatory for me. I'm glad I read Roger Ebert's review and chose to see "Knowing" over "Love You, Man" and "Duplicity" because it blew me away and reminded me of the power movies can have. Don't wait to see this on TV, because the special effects are worth the ticket, even without a story that to me is about finding redemption and meaning in life (even salvation, at the end). I loved Nick Cage as a tortured, alcoholic professor who has his world turned upside down by a prophecy. He can't save anyone, even himself, but he can give his son. There are bad movies, but this one sure doesn't deserve some of the hostility it's getting.
He also had a small role in SLC Punk..
btw, I liked _Knowing_, but I am a big huge nerd..
KNOWING is an abomination, a liberal-secularist eschatology in which there is no God, Creation is not good and we are judged and saved not by our faith but by having no faith and nothing to believe in: John Lennon's Imagine made real. Not liberal propaganda? This film is nothing but!
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